Statistician debunks Gore's climate linkage to the collapse of the Mayan civilisation

http://www.myanmars.net/myanmar-history/mayan-civilization2.jpg

Mayan ruins in Guatemala.

This is an email I recently received from statistician Dr. Richard Mackey who writes:

The following appeared on Gore’s blog of Nov 19, 2008:

Looking Back to Look Forward

Looking Back to Look Forward November 19, 2008 : 3:04 PM

A new study suggests the Mayan civilization might have collapsed due to environmental disasters:

These models suggest that as ecosystems were destroyed by mismanagement or were transformed by global climatic shifts, the depletion of agricultural and wild foods eventually contributed to the failure of the Maya sociopolitical system,’ writes environmental archaeologist Kitty Emery of the Florida Museum of Natural History in the current Human Ecology journal.

As we move towards solving the climate crisis, we need to remember the consequences to civilizations that refused to take environmental concerns seriously.

If you haven’t read already read it, take a look at Jared Diamond’s book, Collapse.”

This is a most curious reference.

It means that Gore is advocating the abandonment of the IPCC doctrine and barracking for the study and understanding of climate dynamics that ignores totally the IPCC/AWG doctrine and focuses on all the other variables, especially how climate dynamics are driven by atmospheric/oceanic oscillations, the natural internal dynamics of the climate system and the role of the Sun in climate dynamics.

Brian Fagan in Floods, Famines and Emperors  El Nino and the fate of civilisations  Basic Books 1999, shows that the Maya collapse, whilst having complex political, sociological, technological and ecological factors, was largely driven by the natural atmospheric/oceanic oscillations of ENSO and NAO.  The book is one of three by Brian Fagan, Prof of Anthropology UC Santa Barbara, that documents how natural climate variations, ultimately driven by solar activity, have given rise to the catastrophic collapse of civilisations.  The book has a chapter on the Mayan civilisation which collapsed around 800 to 900 AD.

Here are some quotes from his book:

“The “Classic Maya collapse” is one of the great controversies of

archaeology, but there is little doubt that droughts, fuelled in part

by El Nino, played an important role.”

“The droughts that afflicted the Maya in the eighth and ninth

centuries resulted from complex, still little understood atmosphere-

ocean interactions, including El Nino events and major decadal shifts

in the North Atlantic Oscillation, as well as two or three decade-long

variations in rainfall over many centuries.”

“Why did the Maya civilisation suddenly come apart?  Everyone who

studies the Classic Maya collapse agrees that it was brought on by a

combination of ecological, political, and sociological factors.”

“When the great droughts of the eighth and ninth centuries came, Maya

civilisation everywhere was under increasing stress.”

“The drought was the final straw.”

“The collapse did not come without turmoil and war.”

Brian Fagan describes how the ruling class (the kings had divine powers, they were also shamans and there was a vast aristocracy and their fellow-travellers that the tightly regulated workers toiled to maintain) encouraged population growth beyond what the land could carry; how the rulers enforced rigid farming practices which were supposed to increase food production and the ruler’s incomes but had the effect of undermining farm productivity and diminishing the quality of the poor soils of the area.  When there were heavy rains the soil was washed away.  In times of drought the soil blew away.

More quotes from Brian Fagan:

“The Maya collapse is a cautionary tale in the dangers of using

technology and people power to expand the carrying capacity of

tropical environments.”

“Atmospheric circulation changes far from the Maya homeland delivered

the coup de grace to rulers no longer able to control their own

destinies because they had exhausted their environmental options in an

endless quest for power and prestige.”

Gore says that we should use our understanding of the Maya collapse help us solve the climate crisis, noting that “we need to remember the consequences to civilizations that refused to take environmental

concerns seriously”.

Given what we know of the Maya collapse, what is Gore really saying?

He is saying that we should take all the IPCC/AWG publications and related papers to the tip and bury them there and put all our efforts into the study and understanding of the reasons for climate dynamics that address every theory except that of IPCC/AWG doctrine.

Specifically, we should understand as well as we can how climate dynamics are driven by atmospheric/oceanic oscillations, the natural internal dynamics of the climate system and the role of the Sun in climate dynamics.

In an overview of his work Brian Fagan concluded:  “The whole course of civilisation … may be seen as a process of trading up on the scale of vulnerability”.  (Fagan (2004, page xv)).

We are now, as a global community, very high up on that scale.

Allow me to quote a little from my Rhodes Fairbridge paper because of its relevance to Brian Fagan’s work and what Gore is really trying to say, but can’t quite find the right words.

(My paper is here: http://www.griffith.edu.au/conference/ics2007/pdf/ICS176.pdf ).

“In his many publications (for example, NORTH (2005)), Douglass North stresses that if the issues with which we are concerned, such as global warming and the global commons, belong in a world of continuous change (that is, a non-ergodic world), then we face a set of problems that become exceedingly complex.  North stresses that our capacity to deal effectively with uncertainty is essential to our succeeding in a

non-ergodic world.  History shows that regional effects of climate change are highly variable and that the pattern of change is highly variable.  An extremely cold (or hot) year can be followed by extremely hot (or cold) year.  Warming and cooling will be beneficial for some regions and catastrophic for others.  Brian Fagan has documented in detail relationships between the large-scale and

generally periodic changes in climate and the rise and fall of civilisations, cultures and societies since the dawn of history.  The thesis to which Rhodes Fairbridge devoted much of his life is that the

sun, through its relationships with the solar system, is largely responsible for these changes and that we are now on the cusp of one of the major changes that feature in the planet’s history.  As

Douglass North showed, the main responsibility of governments in managing the impact of the potentially catastrophic events that arise in a non-ergodic world is to mange society’s response to them so as to

enable the society to adapt as efficiently as possible to them.

Amongst other things, this would mean being better able to anticipate and manage our response to climate change, to minimise suffering and maximise benefits and the efficiency of our adaptation to a climate that is ever-changing – sometimes catastrophically – but generally predictable within bounds of uncertainty that statisticians can estimate.  At the very least, this requires that the scientific community acts on the wise counsel of Rhodes W Fairbridge and presents governments with advice that has regard to the entire field of planetary-lunar-solar dynamics, including gravitational dynamics.

This field has to be understood so that the dynamics of terrestrial climate can be understood.

References:

North, D. C., 2005. Understanding the Process of Economic Change

Princeton University Press.

Fagan, B., 2004.  The Long Summer.  How Climate Changed Civilization.

Basic Books.”

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JimB

“It means that Gore is advocating the abandonment of the IPCC doctrine and barracking for the study and understanding of climate dynamics that ignores totally the IPCC/AWG doctrine and focuses on all the other variables, especially how climate dynamics are driven by atmospheric/oceanic oscillations, the natural internal dynamics of the climate system and the role of the Sun in climate dynamics.”
I’m sorry, but I just don’t get this statement. Seems like a GIANT leap to say that Gore is advocating the abandonment of anything, least of all IPCC doctrine.
The book referenced in the blog is Collapse…here’s an excerpt from a review:
“While it might seem a stretch to use medieval Greenland and the Maya to convince a skeptic about the seriousness of global warming, it’s exactly this type of cross-referencing that makes Collapse so compelling. –Jennifer Buckendorff ”
Seems to me that the Gore blog entry is just adding more ammo from a different angle to the rest of the political garbage he spews.
It’s early, I haven’t had enough coffee…so what did I miss here?
JimB

kim

Well, I’ll try to help here JimB. The IPCC has concentrated, by mandate, on anthropogenic change to climate, and rather than study regional microclimate changes, which do occur, they’ve fastened on CO2 as the main agent of climate change. It is becoming obvious that they are wrong. The climatic events around the collapse of the Mayan civilization were pretty clearly not anthropogenic, instead were from natural cycles. So any lessons to be learned from the Mayans have to do with regional land use changes. Gore is just a complete fool. He’s the Gorebellied Fool.
==================================

blcjr

JimB,
I’ve only had one cup of coffee, but I think I get it. The Mayan collapse is being attributed to climate change brought about entirely by natural climate variability. So we need to better understand the causes and dimensions of natural climate variability. This is an area of research that largely began to be ignored after the mid 1990’s, where it took a back seat to research focused on anthropogenic induced climate change.
Basil

JimB

Kim,
Thanks…I got that.
The link I don’t get is that somehow Gore is abandoning the IPCC. All the blog post said to me was Gore saying “See what happened to the Mayans when THEY ignored the impact of climate change???”
I guess what I’m saying is it seems to me the author is making a link that just isn’t there…much the same as Gore does with C02 ;*)
JimB

Rod Smith

I am not convinced that Gore either understands or cares about such events, nor expects the average person on the street to even read about them. Most will just repeat that “Al Gore says….”
I think he is just raising the drumbeat level of his “The sky is falling” bleat.

John F. Pittman

I tried to find the paper but coudn’t. IIRC, part of the collapse was assumed anthropogenic. During the large drought periods, they used irrigation. This culture http://www.anthrosource.net/doi/abs/10.1525/aa.2002.104.3.814 was a water monopoly civilization. There was a theory of salt intrusion “900 A.C., at which time the Maya collapse removed the market for its salt”. The theory was that due to extensive monocrop agriculture and irrigating with water that salt had been added, the Mayans worsened their annaul harvest each year. This is an old paper, when biologists were exploring monoculture crops and desert irrigation. I don’t know how well it stood the test of time.

John

One could say Al Gored his own horse.

As Douglass North showed, the main responsibility of governments in managing the impact of the potentially catastrophic events that arise in a non-ergodic world is to manage society’s response to them so as to enable the society to adapt as efficiently as possible to them. Amongst other things, this would mean being better able to anticipate and manage our response to climate change, to minimise suffering and maximise benefits and the efficiency of our adaptation to a climate that is ever-changing – sometimes catastrophically – but generally predictable within bounds of uncertainty that statisticians can estimate.
Nobody could [or should] disagree with the above. Unfortunately, it appears in the context of:
The thesis to which Rhodes Fairbridge devoted much of his life is that the sun, through its relationships with the solar system, is largely responsible for these changes and that we are now on the cusp of one of the major changes that feature in the planet’s history. […] At the very least, this requires that the scientific community acts on the wise counsel of Rhodes W Fairbridge and presents governments with advice that has regard to the entire field of planetary-lunar-solar dynamics, including gravitational dynamics. This field has to be understood so that the dynamics of terrestrial climate can be understood.
Linking these two statements is unfortunate because the problems with the second one would tend to diminish the importance of the first one. We have gone over the lack of scientific value of the planetary influence ‘theory’ already and need not repeat the nauseating arguments. This is a sad comment on the state of science literacy among a segment of the public, and carries its own alarmist overtone [“we are now on the cusp …”]., very sad, indeed.

Retired Engineer

If Mayan land use policies were destructive, then that could be considered anthropogenc. They didn’t change the climate, but they made themselves vulnerable to changes that took place.
If we embark on a massive cap and trade carbon sequestering effort, we may experience the same end result.
I wouldn’t call Gore a complete fool. He has a collected whole lot of money. The folks that follow him may be complete fools.

Billy Ruff'n

Perhaps Gore has begun to walk away from an argument he is realizing he can’t win. It reminds me of rats and sinking ships.

Jon Jewett

Jim B
“It means that Gore is advocating the abandonment ….”
…is not what Al Gore means, but it is what he says. His reference deals with known climate oscillations and that the government should prepare for them. Today that is: global cooling.
I suspect that Al doesn’t understand the difference.
(Moderator: I snipped my own ad hominem attacks on Al.)
Regards,
Steamboat Jack

Leon Brozyna

I think that what Gore is doing is drawing a parallel between our climate crisis and the Mayan demise due to their not reacting properly to their changing environment. He seems to be saying that if we do not seriously respond to our climate crisis, which he claims is driven by rising levels of CO2, we will suffer the same fate as that experienced by the Mayan.
I think he is using this study to reinforce his AGW message; he is not abandoning or changing his position.

kim (07:13:17) :
So any lessons to be learned from the Mayans have to do with regional land use changes.
And regional land use changes are clearly not due to planetary alignments, either.

Tim L

I have to say it again…. cocky arrogance !!!
did he say anything about the no sun spots? NO!
algore will be the reason that we collapse.
breathe deeply exhale and repeat……

Al Gore wrote a very good book in 1992 ‘ Earth in the balance’ in which he gathered together lots of evidence of previous civilisations collapsing through climate change or made numerous references to warmer periods than today. Like the UKS own Dr Iain Stewart he then chose to ignore his own proof that these things happen naturally, by making a leap towards saying that next time we could cause collapse through our excessive use of co2. It was a most curioius thing to do, rather like reading an Agatha Christie ‘whodunit’ that fingered the eventual murderer as someone who hadn’t even been mentioned in the book!
I respectfully suggest people take a long hard look at the work of Ernst Beck who has demonstrated that co2 levels pre Keeling rose and fell beween around 280 and 400ppm. Having checked out his work myself from a historic perspective, the ice core readings look increasingly dubious and the hypotheses that co2 has never been higher increasingly threadbare.
TonyB

JimB

“Leon Brozyna (08:59:52) :
I think that what Gore is doing is drawing a parallel between our climate crisis and the Mayan demise due to their not reacting properly to their changing environment. He seems to be saying that if we do not seriously respond to our climate crisis, which he claims is driven by rising levels of CO2, we will suffer the same fate as that experienced by the Mayan.
I think he is using this study to reinforce his AGW message; he is not abandoning or changing his position”
This is exactly the point I was attempting to make.
The author of the article claims that the blog post signifies a radical departure in Gore’s support of the IPCC. Nothing in the blog post says that.
The blog post amounts to nothing more than Good Ol’ Al saying “And see what happened to THEM when THEY didn’t pay attention to climate??? SEE???”
JimB

Pierre Gosselin

I agree with Leon.
Gore is saying we have to adapt to climate change by mitigation. He actiually (foolishly) believes we can act pre-emptively. Only by massively cutting CO2 can we avoid the doomsday like the Mayan Empire. What a joke!
Quite honestly, the Mayan collapse had nothing to do with climate change. It was most likely due to the Mayan’s inability to respond to climate change because of bad economics and political corruption. Their system was weighted down by government, and it no longer could function when faced with a challenge.

kim

Leif (09:01:12)
Oh, yes, I agree. I should have also said we might be able to learn political lessons from them.
And then……what about that Mayan Calendar? Kidding.
JimB. (07:33:10) I think the point is that this latest business about the Mayans is inconsistent with the IPCC idea that CO2=AGW, and he’s not bright enough to realize it. Either that or he does realize it but from past experience thinks the press and people are too stupid to catch him at his fool’s game. He is either a fool, or a cynic.
============================================

Pierre Gosselin

A well-governed society can adapt easily to any moderate Holocene-type climate change while corrupt, dysfunctional societies collapse…sometimes even by themselves without the help of nature. Look at the USA today! Or the Soviet empire.

Tim L (09:28:19) :
I have to say it again…. cocky arrogance !!!
did he say anything about the no sun spots? NO!

At least he got that right !

It`s interesting to note, too, that Cahokia and the Mississippian culture began declining around 1250 and collapsed completely shortly after 1400-in harmony with the end of the Medieval Warming Period and subsequent Little Ice Age.
What Gore is unwittingly doing is admitting defeat; the climate change was not caused by human activity but by natural cycles.

Douglas DC

There is a big difference with the Modern Civilization and the Maya. However,I am more worried about a collapse within-i.e. short-sighted policies that do not take into account external changes.Like the current low solar cycle la Nina,etc.That Gore may be,shall we say, projecting his feelings here.He may realize that the Jig is up,and not know how he really feels 🙂

evanjones

On the one hand there is a whole pigpile out there who have terrible things to say about Beck.
But OTOH the dang proxies seem to show no increase whatever in CO2 levels during WWII, a period in which every fossil fuel a.) was fanatically acquired, and, b.) went up in smoke, and then some, plus around a hundred cities for good measure.
So regardless of the validity or non-validity of Beck, I must also cast a jaundiced (soot-caked) eye at the proxies. I also wonder just how “raw” those proxies are. If one can adjust an NOAA asphalt-horror surface station warmer, what can one not do to an innocent Antarctic ice core?

Pierre Gosselin

TonyB
“…evidence of previous civilisations collapsing through climate change…”
Rubbish!
Rubbish!
Rubbish!
Societies collapse because of corrupt dysfunctional governments. Let’s not make for excuses for incompetent leaders and government.
“Ohhhh…it’s the climate’s fault!!”
Screw that!

Pierre Gosselin

Societies have been able to thrive during climate change even with the simplest of technology. Societies fail because of mismanagement.
Now get that in your heads!

Pierre Gosselin

Financial collapse has already arrived. Our governments and leaders managde that all by themselves just fine, without the generous help of climate change.
What Gore needs to do now is to somehow convince the public that the current financial collpse was caused by climate change.

Richard deSousa

Certainly the Maunder and Dalton Minimums can be considered natural cycles. Due to our huge population growth we are just as vulnerable as the Mayans. If a catastrophe such as another Maunder or Dalton Minimum befalls us we’re going to suffer a huge die off. The northern hemisphere will no longer be the bread basket of the world since the temperatures will plunge and grain and livestock will no longer be able to use the land.

Ed Scott

Gore will be linked to the collapse of the American civilization.
US ready to climb into hot seat on climate change
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081127/sc_afp/unclimatewarmingus_081127030629
WASHINGTON (AFP) – Nations around the world are hoping the United States is set to come in from the cold and take a leading role in the fight against climate change as President-elect Barack Obama prepares to take office.
“It’s a very exciting time. It’s a moment we have been waiting for, many of us, for some period of time; we intend to pick up the baton and really run with it,” Democratic Senator John Kerry told reporters, as he prepared to head to international climate change talks in Poland. (Note: Flying in his wife’s Gulfstream 5; 5,176 gallons of JP 4 per fill-up)
Obama has been “very, very clear that after eight years of obstruction and delay and denial, the US is going to rejoin the world community in tackling this global challenge,” he added.

Christian Bultmann

I just started to look into the CO2 measurement and Ernst Beck’s work.
Are there other scientist who came to a similar conclusion in his paper he talked about 90,000 indirect measurements and CO2 concentrations following the temperature over the last hundred years.
When he is correct we maybe see a drop in CO2 concentration soon as well.

JimB

“Either that or he does realize it but from past experience thinks the press and people are too stupid to catch him at his fool’s game.”
It absolutely chokes me to say this, but it could be the first time I’ve agreed with Gorey on anything.
The media, and most people, are indeed too stupid to catch him at anything.
As realists, we have to master the 30 second sound bite.
JimB

Novoburgo

Richard, you’re sounding just a wee bit hysterical. Get hold of yourself!

Tom in Florida

It is futile to try to figure out what Algore means at any time. He is the comsumate snake oil salesman, he doesn’t know what is right nor does he care. He depends on the average joe’s ignorance and short attention span to grab the spotlight, say something that sounds like it might be scientific, rake in a few more dollars and high tail it off to his next opportunity to do the same.

JimB

““It’s a very exciting time. It’s a moment we have been waiting for, many of us, for some period of time; we intend to pick up the baton and really run with it,” Democratic Senator John Kerry told reporters, as he prepared to head to international climate change talks in Poland. (Note: Flying in his wife’s Gulfstream 5; 5,176 gallons of JP 4 per fill-up)
Obama has been “very, very clear that after eight years of obstruction and delay and denial, the US is going to rejoin the world community in tackling this global challenge,” he added.”
Amazing that Kerry is from a one party state, and hasn’t picked up any baton here in Massachusetts, where there’s been NO “delay and denial” for him to deal with. He and Kennedy have both made sure the Cape Cod wind farm couldn’t go forward though.
Apparently, according to the residents of Cape Cod, wind energy is NOT enviromentally friendly, as they’ve come up with all sorts of reasons that this is a terrible idea.
JimB

Pierre
I suggest you actually learn some history before shouting rubbish!
Many societies can adapt-look at the Byzantine empire from 386 to 1453. Their climate references show numerous climatic changes which they adapted to through better irrigation or withdrawing from certain areas that were no longer compatible. However some were brought down by it- severe weather helped to cause the collpase of the Western Roman Empire and the demise of the Vikings wasn’t due to poor government-they had nowhere to go when the sea lanes started to close up again.
We should learn from history not pretend it hasnt happenmed because it suit our political viewpoint.
If you want to learn some history read this remarkable 1872 book by British Chemist R Smith. Numerous references to co2 readings as high as todays are made. We also know temperatures in the past were as high or higher than today.
http://www.archive.org/stream/airrainbeginning00smitiala
Its all historic fact and though the IPCC might try to rewrite it and Michael Mann might say ‘the MWP is an outdated concept’ there are those of us who have bothered to study the past.
TonyB

Philip_B

The parallel between the Mayan civilization and now is that rigidity of government processes and prescriptions prevented (prevents) appropriate adaptations to unforeseen climate changes.
In the present, the IPCC’s dogma of CO2 reduction to the exclusion of all else is, and will be, rigidly adhered to at the expense of simple and rather obvious mitigation steps, such as stockpiling food.
Remember, mitigation is a dirty word in the IPCC scheme of things. Primarily because mitigation means we wait and see what actually happens.
Otherwise, I wouldn’t read too much into what Al Gore says. Logical and coherent thought processes are not his speciality. You only have to watch An Inconvenient Truth to see that.

Douglas DC

I wonder what the Weather in Poland’s going to be like? Hope the De-icers work well on a G-V…
I think they are a ‘Hot’ wing if not mistaken…

Philip_B

I should have made my point clearer.
The parallel with the Mayan civilization is the rigidity of the IPCC dogma and its CO2 reduction precription will be the direct cause of a civilization-wide climate crisis, should one occur.
All it would take is one large volcanic eruption causing a Year Without A Summer and planet wide famine.

Bobby Lane

The point of all of this ought to be to teach us some humility first over all else. We think of the Mayans as primitive, but in their time they were as advanced a society as there was to be found considering that Europe, from which most of us are sprung, was enduring the so-called Dark Ages. That is not to say I agree with Gore’s brand of humility. Quite the opposite. I agree with Jim when he said: “All the blog post said to me was Gore saying “See what happened to the Mayans when THEY ignored the impact of climate change???” I find myself in close agreement. People will not take out of that book or his blog that he is abandoning IPCC warmist ideology, but rather it is just more of the same alarmism using history as a backdrop for a simplistic argument: the end of modern society because greedy humans ignored the principles of nature and caused their own destruction, just like the Mayas did Gore would say. Somehow I doubt they were putting a lot of CO2 into the atmosphere such as we today are alleged to be doing. Furthermore I see some deeper things in this line of thinking.
Gore and the IPCC advocate State control over the economies of the world to chisel their ideology onto the face of human civilization – to remake it into the image that they see fit. Yet this was exactly the downfall of the Mayas. We may have a more ‘scientific’ world-view than they did, that is certain, but for all that we still do not understand the complexities and subtleties of our own planet. That is the humility to which I first refer, and the one which Gore and the IPCC, in their rush to reform the world according to their own ideology, chose to ignore or to wear falsely. In their pride, they purport to be our saviors whilest ignoring anyone who would gainsay them and their so-called evidence.
This “Mayan argument” is just more of the same: give in and let us take over and guide you on the path of ecological salvation. Well, like the others here, I am not buying into that. I would rather die free than live as a slave, even a well treated slave, any day of the week. Give me liberty, or give me death! The spirit of the American Constitution is that government is a necessary evil to restrain the evils of man, to try to liberate and encourage the good things in men that lead to “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.” That is not something that Gore or the IPCC hold at the center of their ideology, and thus is perhaps among the best reasons for rejecting it.

Alphajuno

Leif Svalgaard (07:52:54) :
We have gone over the lack of scientific value of the planetary influence ‘theory’ already and need not repeat the nauseating arguments.
Time is the best argument since nothing can be proved or disproved at this point. I’m hopeful that one day there will be a good model for the sun.
Here’s some links that show the “wobble” talked about previously:
http://tycho.bgsu.edu/~laird/cp_images/wobble.html
http://history.nasa.gov/SP-419/s2.3.htm
http://astro.unl.edu/naap/esp/centerofmass.html
It’s obvious the Sun experiences velocity and acceleration changes. It’s not obvious as to effect – but no sunspot recovery yet…

B Kerr

It is quite obvious why the Mayan civilization died out!
As a scholar of Scottish history I am an expert.
We had history, real history, long before the Mayans.
We beat up the Romans!!
The Maya sociopolitical system decreed green taxation, which began the move towards total deforestation allowing more “green” corn to be grown.
Yellow corn caused flatulence and was deemed environmentally unacceptable. The Mayan traders speculated in the corn market and ended up with toxic corn. The Mayans were then forced to reduce their Corn footprint. Town cries read out doom and gloom narratives every night to ensure that everyone felt equally guilty. Maybe not everyone the green corn eaters could sit back and smile, knowing that their belief was right.
With further taxation the Mayan corn market was doomed to fail causing the Mayan sociopolitical systems to step in and save the Corn Banks. Mayan environmentalist were overjoyed and longing for the day when yellow corn production would be finally over.
The green market -GM- thrived, using corn offset. Yet production was low and deforestation continued. Yellow corn production was given over to green corn, yet yields fell and a famine was forecast.
This forced the populous to pay the High Priest extra so that they could increase their individual corn footprint.
The High Mayan priests blamed the populous.
“It is all your fault, you need to reduce your corn foot print!”
The greens vandalised yellow corn production with the blessing of the High Priest Nasagoddard the second. “These yellow corn eaters are criminals, they are committing crimes against Mayans”. Well yellow corn production ceased and the Mayans die out.
So what about the High Priest and his sociopolitical advisers,? Well they did very well. Most had 5 houses with private luxury jetties while offsetting their yellow corn allowance. Eventually they changed course and blamed everyone, well not exactly everyone.
But by then it was too late.
I hope that you didn’t think that I made all this up??
Happy St Andrews Day.

Neville

I think the key response to climate change is adaptation.
To try and pick the cause e.g co2 +AGW is the most expensive ridiculous fraud ever thrown at the taxpayer. It most probably is a combination of solar, ocean oscillations, enso plus more or less volcanic activity, but to try and single out athropogenic GHG’s is just gross stupidity when there is so little evidence to reinforce the argument.
If we are suffering from drought, fire or flood we must adapt and carefully spend our scarce funds on an obvious problem not this nonsensical, delusional rubbish of trying to change the climate.
Spencer’s team can’t find positive feedback to co2 or a hot spot over the tropics using the best technology available so where is the proof?

Ed Scott

Satanic Gas
Ray Evans
Carbon is the sixth element in the periodic table. It is unique among the elements in the vast number and variety of compounds it can form. With hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen and other elements, it forms a very large number of compounds. There are close to ten million known carbon compounds, many thousands of which are vital to organic and life processes. Carbon is essential for life.
As we now see in the Commonwealth government’s Green Paper, Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, and newspaper sub-headings (“Carbon’s a diabolical foe”—Australian Financial Review) carbon is now being demonised by the media and by ministers of the Crown.
How did we get to a situation where fantasy has triumphed over reality?
http://www.quadrant.org.au/magazine/issue/2008/9/satanic-gas

Gilbert

Leif Svalgaard (10:19:28) :
This is slightly OT but much of this thread seems to be so. I’m trying to understand the atmospheric greenhouse effect (AGE). I don’t know the physics well enough to follow a detailed physical explanation, but can usually follow the logic pretty well. I know that CO2 absorbs reflected radiation, but I don’t understand why it would re-radiate that energy rather than conduct the energy to other cooler gases.
There is a method to my maddness. I should think that if the process were well enough understood, then it should be possible to calculate the point at which CO2 saturation would occur?
Thanks

JimB

Once again, we all know what it is…
What we (at least I), seem incapable of is convincing others what it is, and what it’s doing.
And I’m still surprised at the inference that Dr. Richard Mackey makes based on the blog.
Oh well. Time to paunder the…oh wait… 😉
JimB

Alphajuno (13:23:40) :
Time is the best argument since nothing can be proved or disproved at this point. I’m hopeful that one day there will be a good model for the sun.
The physics involved has been known for more than 300 years, so time will clearly not sway you from your error.
It’s obvious the Sun experiences velocity and acceleration changes.
The Sun is in free fall and feels no forces. The Earth goes around the Sun and is being accelerated all the time, yet there is no effect from this. The space station and astronauts are in free fall and therefore feel to forces. A man in a falling elevator accelerates towards his doom, yet feels no force [until he hits the floor]. Etc, etc, etc. There is no need to find a mechanism to create effects when no forces are felt [except the minuscule tidal forces].

Gilbert (14:23:12) :
I’m trying to understand the atmospheric greenhouse effect (AGE). I don’t know the physics well enough to follow a detailed physical explanation, but can usually follow the logic pretty well. I know that CO2 absorbs reflected radiation,
AGE is well understood. It has only a little to do with CO2. Most of AGE is due to water vapor. The mechanism is quite simple: The Earth’s surface radiates heat it got from the Sun back into space, some of that is absorbed by a greenhouse gas, e.g. H20, which re-radiates that right away in a random direction, half upwards into space where it is lost, but the other half downwards back to the Earth where it heats the surface again.

Ron de Haan

Just the idea that Al Gore almost made it to President of the United States!
Here is another former candidate: “America is back as a leader on the issue of climate change and will press ahead with policy changes that address environmental and economic challenges that are now interlinked, according to Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.)
http://www.cnsnews.com/public/content/article.aspx?RsrcID=39958
Kerry remains a fool, according to Heliogenic Cimate Change.
http://heliogenic.blogspot.com/2008/11/kerry-remains-fool.html
Considering that the new President elect, an even bigger fool, is cut out from of the same wood as Gore and Kerry makes one wonder about the future of us all.
Is there an epidemic of foolishness going on?
Could it be that these guys have different plans for us?
http://green-agenda.com

Tim L

Leif,
what Al did not say is correct LOL
Thank You
tiny tim

kent

One of the main food sources for the Mayan empire was a nut called the Ramon nut. It has about 19% protein and more importantly it has all the essential amino acids unlike corn or beans. You can live on it.
It grows on a major rainforest tree that can produce food for over 100 years. It’s destruction by wind or drought would put a major dent in the food supply of the cities.
Most of the Ramon nut trees produce fruit once a year but the trees around Tikal they produce fruit twice a year. It would seem the Mayans were breeding this food source to flower twice a year.
Cities without food quickly depopulate. City folks would have a hard time finding food so they would steal it from those who could, creating strife and open warfare.

peter_ga

No doubt some ancient cultures suffered collapses through climate change or ecological collapse. What the modern world has, and the ancients lacked, is shipping. Food and water can be moved cheaply from A to B. Nuclear power plants can drive desalination plants. We cannot control climate or weather. We can easily adapt to this adversity, when it occurs.