We’ve seen a lot of anecdotal evidence of a cooler than usual summer in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere. This one caught my eye though, because I can’t ever recall of hearing a freeze warning being issued for this region before Labor Day.
Here are the normals and records for Monday, August 25th:
THE DULUTH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 72 95 1888
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 52 40 1950
It looks like a new record could be set for Duluth, and likely Ely, also.
Here is the latest warning from the NWS in Duluth:
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
146 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008
…FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY.
.A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS UNDERNEATH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM
WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
IN MANY LOCATIONS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 28 TO 32
DEGREE RANGE… WITH A PERIOD OF 2 TO 3 HOURS OF READINGS BELOW
THE FREEZING MARK. SOME FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP AS LOW AS THE
MID 20S FOR A SHORT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY MID MORNING MONDAY.
Here are the numbers for the region provided on a nice map they provide:
The NCDC says the coldest August temp in the last 10 years was 29F on 8/21/2004. That date set an all-time record of 32F at International Falls. Yep, counts as chilly weather.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dlh/?n=dailyclimatedata
They call that a cool air mass .Below freezing in august should be a cold air mass should’t it?Imean it it were january and temps were in the 60’s they would be shouting GLOBAL WARMING. Oh i know natural variences.One other thing off topic .Notice on the weather channel when it is cooler than normal in a given area they always have an answer for it like cloud cover.
I don’t believe the grain markets had this priced-in, as prices were down at Friday’s close of trading, and one of the private weather firms was quoted thusly:
“…In the U.S., there are no significant concerns for maturing spring wheat or the ongoing harvest in the northern Plains, despite some showers in the region Thursday. There is another chance for some rain early next week, Meteorlogix said.
-By Tom Polansek, Dow Jones Newswires”
http://futuresource.quote.com/news/story.jsp?i=DJC00S3Y80822&mId=grain&market
I imagine prices will not be down at Monday’s close, now that this news is out.
Anyone who wants to can follow grain prices on the Chicago Board of Trade website
http://www.cbot.com/
http://news.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=08/08/21/2316252&from=rss
I don’t think this bodes well for the silage crops up there. I believe there will shortages of grain this fall/winter for sure.
by the way it is quite cool here in NE Alabama this week what with the clouds and all from TS Fay. high yesterday 79 and today 82 much below normal August here in N E Alabama has been on the cool side.
Bill Derryberry
How about Denver this week? Any chance Gore will get frostbite?
Jah dots “Minnesnowta”. Ut reminds me of Paul Bunyan’s winter of the blue snow, when it was so cold the snow turned blue and the Pacific Ocean froze over. Paul had to walk all the way over to China to find some ordinary white snow as Christmas presents for his loggers.
Following are some better documented correlations on cosmic rays influencing climate (as comments to SAP 2.3 draft):
Cosmic ray nucleation with solar modulation
Svensmark and FriisChristensen (1996) discovered that incident cosmic rays modulate global low level cloud cover. In earth like atmospheres, Svensmark et a. (2006) find new aerosol particle production is proportional to negative ion density. Cloud cover further varies about 2% over the 11 year solar cycle. Svensmark (2007) formulated a theory of cosmoclimatology where ion nucleation of aerosols form cloud condensation nuclei. This varies with cosmic ray variations which are inversely modulated by the total solar irradiance and solar wind. Rusov et al. (2008a) , (2008b) further develop a bifurcation model of galactic cosmic ray cloud formation and provide experimental support. Following Svensmark’s preliminary experimental confirmation, CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research, is creating the CLOUD atmospheric research facility to quantify cosmic ray atmospheric aerosol nucleation. Marsh (2003) showed correlations between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and galactic cosmic rays. Usoskin et al. (2004) show latitudinal influence on cosmic ionization clouds. Harrison and Stehenson (2006) find that with sudden transient reductions in cosmic rays (Forbush events) there corresponding simultaneous decreases in diffuse insolation, and thus with clouds. They note that high cosmic ray fluctuations correlate with 2% higher diffuse insolation and a 19% increase in overcast days.
References for Cosmoclimatology:
Svensmark, Henrik, Cosmoclimatology: a new theory emerges. A & G, February 2007, Vol. 48 #1, 18-24
Svensmark, Henrik, Jens Olaf P. Pedersen, Nigel D. Marsh, Martin B. Enghoff, & Ulrik I Uggerhǿj, Experimental evidence for the role of ions in particle nucleation under atmospheric conditions, Proc. Royal Soc. A. 2006, 1773.
Rusov, V; A. Glushkov, V. Vaschenko, O. Mihalys, S. Kosenko, S. Mavrodiev, B. Vachev, Galactic Cosmic Rays – Clouds Effect and Bifurcation Model of the Earth Global Climate. Part 1. Theory, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, (2008) In Press
Rusov, V; A. Glushkov, V. Vaschenko, О. Mihalys, S. Kosenko, S. Mavrodiev, B. Vachev, Galactic Cosmic Rays – Clouds Effect and Bifurcation Model of the Earth Global Climate. Part 2. Comparison of Theory with Experiment. Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, (2008) In Press
I. G. Usoskin & N. Marsh, G. A. Kovaltsov, K. Mursula, O. G. Gladysheva, Latitudinal dependence of low cloud amount on cosmic ray induced ionization, Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 31, L16109, doi:10.1029/2004GL019507, 2004
Harrison. R. Giles; & David B. Stephenson, Empirical evidence for a nonlinear effect of galactic cosmic rays on clouds. Prod. Roy. Soc. A. V462, Nr 2068, Apr. 8, 2006, 1221-1233.
Marsh, Nigel, Galactic cosmic ray and El Niño–Southern Oscillation trends in International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project D2 low-cloud properties, J. Geophysical Research, V. 108, No. D6, 4195, doi:10.1029/2001JD001264, 2003
Just heard a tornado touched down “somewhere” in the local Denver area this afternoon!
No frost warnings for Canadian prairies. Their wheat crop is running 1 to 2 weeks late due to the cool summer, and an early frost would have a big impact on yields.
With enough of these anecdotal cool weather events, the MSM might mention them in passing, so quickly that you might miss the mention. Of course, were it a record high temp, they’d make more of a deal about it.
At least in Anthony’s house we get to read about these unusual quirky weather events that’re happening all over the globe. Should this be marking a deepening of the cooling trend of the past few years with cooling progressing over the course of at least a couple decades, then it’s back to the drawing boards for the politicians to find a new crisis to milk.
In the meantime, I’m sure farmers in the upper Plains are hoping for a period of warm dry weather till they get their crops harvested.
This is off topic but an interesting read from Science News:
New Climate Record Shows Century-long Droughts In Eastern North America
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/08/080819092017.htm
Some good cave work.
“Winter weather? Almanac says ‘Numb’s the word!'” by JERRY HARKAVY Associated Press on Aug 24, 2008:
LEWISTON, Maine (AP) — People worried about the high cost of keeping warm this winter will draw little comfort from the Farmers’ Almanac, which predicts below-average temperatures for most of the U.S.
“Numb’s the word,” says the 192-year-old publication, which claims an accuracy rate of 80 to 85 percent for its forecasts that are prepared two years in advance.
The almanac’s 2009 edition, which goes on sale Tuesday, says at least two-thirds of the country can expect colder-than-average temperatures this winter, with only the Far West and Southeast in line for near-normal readings.
* * *
The almanac – not to be confused with the New Hampshire-based Old Farmer’s Almanac which is 26 years older – attributes its forecasts to reclusive prognosticator Caleb Weatherbee, who uses a secret formula based on sunspots, the position of the planets and the tidal action of the moon.
* * *
The almanac is at odds with the National Weather Service, whose trends-based outlook calls for warmer than normal weather this winter over much of the country, including Alaska, said Ed O’Lenic, chief of the operations branch at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. The almanac and the weather service are in sync, however, in pointing to a chance of a drier winter in the Northwest.
* * *
A larger problem with early freeze wouldn’t so much be an impact on grain as you can, for example, harvest corn long after the ground is frozen solid and many do because it is easier to get vehicles into what might otherwise be muddy fields. As someone noted, silage will take a big hit because if it freezes, it is useless. You can’t store it in a silo, it will turn to rotten mush. If the ground freezes before wheat and beans can be harvested, there will be little winter wheat as you can’t plant after the ground has frozen but we are a ways from worrying about that yet.
Winter wheat harvests were down in the Eastern Dakotas and Western Minnesota due to drought this winter so the farmers were already hurting. Spring wheat … this year’s summer crop has already begun harvest. They started bringing that in towards the end of July and early August. It was late due to delayed planting because of wet field conditions this spring. The fields were too wet to work, the crop isn’t delayed because of cold.
By the way, here is a resource for following the wheat harvest for people who are interested.
By the way, the main thing keeping world grain prices from going through the roof is a bumper crop in Russia this year. There is a lot of Russian grain on world markets, more than usual.
Interesting post! Chilly weather for those folks in Northern Minnesota. Unfortunately, it doesn’t fit the MSM’s ‘agenda’…so it won’t be reported outside of the local area…I still think it is sunspots causing the so-called warming phenomenon….especially since there are no SUV’s or humans on any other planet! 🙂
http://www.cookevilleweatherguy.com
That’s where I live. Just few miles north of Duluth on the lake shore. Frost won’t happen here, because of the warmer lake waters. But just inland, they better cover up the tender plants. 2004 was the last time we seen some frigid weather this time of year.
Here’s a breakdown of monthly departures for Duluth, and I-Falls respectively.
Jan +1.6, +2.4
Feb -4.7, -6.9
Mar -3.1, -4.8
Apr -1.1, -3.4
May -3.3, -7.8
Jun +0.1, -3.7
Jul -1.1, -3.7
Aug (+0.6), (-1.6)
Jan-Jul -1.7, -4.0
I-Falls, the “Icebox of The Nation”, is living up to name I guess. Nice to see positive departures in the winter. Means we got a break from the brutality.
Yah, sure, you bet, A.
The lead sounds about right.
Been on the boat once this season–to put it on the lift. Haven’t even opened the cabin and already it’s time to grab the Poulan and fetch back some Caribou from the ice shack to fatten the dogs.
Gawd, I love it up here!
Its on Drudge, so a lot of folks looking at the main new media competitor to the MSM have access to this story.
A little more on 2004. I-Falls set or tied 12 record lows in that summer. Duluth only 3, and those were in Aug.
That was a chilly summer for the mid section of the country.
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/JJA04TDeptUS.png
N MN experienced a warmer winter, then a cooler spring and summer, into a warmer fall and a slightly warmer 2005 winter. The ENSO was in a positive neutral for the 2004 winter then progressed to a weak El Nino by late summer. PDO was in a weakly positive state, also. Seems a little unusual to have such a colder summer during these phases, but there’s a lot to learn yet.
Here is a salmon story that is counter to the usual “global warming is bad for salmon report”. Seems that the springs have been pretty cool in Alaska for the last few years and may be a cause for reduced returns in some areas
[…] a comment from jerry bono on Watts Up With That? 23 August, […]
Shout out to David L Hagen,
David, what do you know about the Super Collider experiment in 2010 which will prove Svensmark’s theory of cosmic rays forming cloud condensation nuclei? Is it on schedule? Thanks for the above info.
That’s why I don’t live north west of Bemidji, MN any more. I had enough of that cold when I was a kid in the 1930’s. I well remember 1936, when it was -30 something in the kitchen when mom went down to light the fire in the cookstove in the morning, and I had to go out to the well to get water for breakfast. After breakfast my job was to saw and split firewood so mom could keep the house warm after sis and I walked two miles to school.
I see that the SOHO Magnetogam shows another proto sun spot trying to emerge. The one last week didn’t make it, so we now have 35 days since the last spot. Something to do with cooling, maybe? This one looks like it is in the same spot as the one last week so it may be the same magnetic anomaly
as the one last week still trying to form.
As of 12:53 CDT, Hibbing and Ely reporting temps of 39F with dewpoints of 34F. It may be a challenge to see much of freeze, but scattered frost is almost a sure thing.
I might have to get Canadian honey this year
Reply: At first this post appeared blank because the link was not done properly. I believe I have fixed as intended~charles the moderator