Upper Wisconsin and Minnesota Forecast: Frost and Freeze Before Labor Day

We’ve seen a lot of anecdotal evidence of a cooler than usual summer in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere. This one caught my eye though, because I can’t ever recall of hearing a freeze warning being issued for this region before Labor Day.

Here are the normals and records for Monday, August 25th:

THE DULUTH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW

                                       NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   72         95          1888

MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)    52         40          1950

It looks like a new record could be set for Duluth, and likely Ely, also.

Here is the latest warning from the NWS in Duluth:

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN

146 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

…FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH HAS ISSUED A FREEZE

WARNING…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY.

.A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS UNDERNEATH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL

PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT

AND MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM

WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING

IN MANY LOCATIONS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 28 TO 32

DEGREE RANGE… WITH A PERIOD OF 2 TO 3 HOURS OF READINGS BELOW

THE FREEZING MARK. SOME FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS NEAR AND JUST

NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP AS LOW AS THE

MID 20S FOR A SHORT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY

REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY MID MORNING MONDAY.

Here are the numbers for the region provided on a nice map they provide:

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82 thoughts on “Upper Wisconsin and Minnesota Forecast: Frost and Freeze Before Labor Day

  1. They call that a cool air mass .Below freezing in august should be a cold air mass should’t it?Imean it it were january and temps were in the 60’s they would be shouting GLOBAL WARMING. Oh i know natural variences.One other thing off topic .Notice on the weather channel when it is cooler than normal in a given area they always have an answer for it like cloud cover.

  2. I don’t believe the grain markets had this priced-in, as prices were down at Friday’s close of trading, and one of the private weather firms was quoted thusly:
    “…In the U.S., there are no significant concerns for maturing spring wheat or the ongoing harvest in the northern Plains, despite some showers in the region Thursday. There is another chance for some rain early next week, Meteorlogix said.
    -By Tom Polansek, Dow Jones Newswires”
    http://futuresource.quote.com/news/story.jsp?i=DJC00S3Y80822&mId=grain&market
    I imagine prices will not be down at Monday’s close, now that this news is out.
    Anyone who wants to can follow grain prices on the Chicago Board of Trade website
    http://www.cbot.com/

  3. I don’t think this bodes well for the silage crops up there. I believe there will shortages of grain this fall/winter for sure.
    by the way it is quite cool here in NE Alabama this week what with the clouds and all from TS Fay. high yesterday 79 and today 82 much below normal August here in N E Alabama has been on the cool side.
    Bill Derryberry

  4. Jah dots “Minnesnowta”. Ut reminds me of Paul Bunyan’s winter of the blue snow, when it was so cold the snow turned blue and the Pacific Ocean froze over. Paul had to walk all the way over to China to find some ordinary white snow as Christmas presents for his loggers.
    Following are some better documented correlations on cosmic rays influencing climate (as comments to SAP 2.3 draft):
    Cosmic ray nucleation with solar modulation
    Svensmark and FriisChristensen (1996) discovered that incident cosmic rays modulate global low level cloud cover. In earth like atmospheres, Svensmark et a. (2006) find new aerosol particle production is proportional to negative ion density. Cloud cover further varies about 2% over the 11 year solar cycle. Svensmark (2007) formulated a theory of cosmoclimatology where ion nucleation of aerosols form cloud condensation nuclei. This varies with cosmic ray variations which are inversely modulated by the total solar irradiance and solar wind. Rusov et al. (2008a) , (2008b) further develop a bifurcation model of galactic cosmic ray cloud formation and provide experimental support. Following Svensmark’s preliminary experimental confirmation, CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research, is creating the CLOUD atmospheric research facility to quantify cosmic ray atmospheric aerosol nucleation. Marsh (2003) showed correlations between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and galactic cosmic rays. Usoskin et al. (2004) show latitudinal influence on cosmic ionization clouds. Harrison and Stehenson (2006) find that with sudden transient reductions in cosmic rays (Forbush events) there corresponding simultaneous decreases in diffuse insolation, and thus with clouds. They note that high cosmic ray fluctuations correlate with 2% higher diffuse insolation and a 19% increase in overcast days.
    References for Cosmoclimatology:
    Svensmark, Henrik, Cosmoclimatology: a new theory emerges. A & G, February 2007, Vol. 48 #1, 18-24
    Svensmark, Henrik, Jens Olaf P. Pedersen, Nigel D. Marsh, Martin B. Enghoff, & Ulrik I Uggerhǿj, Experimental evidence for the role of ions in particle nucleation under atmospheric conditions, Proc. Royal Soc. A. 2006, 1773.
    Rusov, V; A. Glushkov, V. Vaschenko, O. Mihalys, S. Kosenko, S. Mavrodiev, B. Vachev, Galactic Cosmic Rays – Clouds Effect and Bifurcation Model of the Earth Global Climate. Part 1. Theory, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, (2008) In Press
    Rusov, V; A. Glushkov, V. Vaschenko, О. Mihalys, S. Kosenko, S. Mavrodiev, B. Vachev, Galactic Cosmic Rays – Clouds Effect and Bifurcation Model of the Earth Global Climate. Part 2. Comparison of Theory with Experiment. Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, (2008) In Press
    I. G. Usoskin & N. Marsh, G. A. Kovaltsov, K. Mursula, O. G. Gladysheva, Latitudinal dependence of low cloud amount on cosmic ray induced ionization, Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 31, L16109, doi:10.1029/2004GL019507, 2004
    Harrison. R. Giles; & David B. Stephenson, Empirical evidence for a nonlinear effect of galactic cosmic rays on clouds. Prod. Roy. Soc. A. V462, Nr 2068, Apr. 8, 2006, 1221-1233.
    Marsh, Nigel, Galactic cosmic ray and El Niño–Southern Oscillation trends in International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project D2 low-cloud properties, J. Geophysical Research, V. 108, No. D6, 4195, doi:10.1029/2001JD001264, 2003

  5. No frost warnings for Canadian prairies. Their wheat crop is running 1 to 2 weeks late due to the cool summer, and an early frost would have a big impact on yields.

  6. With enough of these anecdotal cool weather events, the MSM might mention them in passing, so quickly that you might miss the mention. Of course, were it a record high temp, they’d make more of a deal about it.
    At least in Anthony’s house we get to read about these unusual quirky weather events that’re happening all over the globe. Should this be marking a deepening of the cooling trend of the past few years with cooling progressing over the course of at least a couple decades, then it’s back to the drawing boards for the politicians to find a new crisis to milk.
    In the meantime, I’m sure farmers in the upper Plains are hoping for a period of warm dry weather till they get their crops harvested.

  7. “Winter weather? Almanac says ‘Numb’s the word!'” by JERRY HARKAVY Associated Press on Aug 24, 2008:
    LEWISTON, Maine (AP) — People worried about the high cost of keeping warm this winter will draw little comfort from the Farmers’ Almanac, which predicts below-average temperatures for most of the U.S.
    “Numb’s the word,” says the 192-year-old publication, which claims an accuracy rate of 80 to 85 percent for its forecasts that are prepared two years in advance.
    The almanac’s 2009 edition, which goes on sale Tuesday, says at least two-thirds of the country can expect colder-than-average temperatures this winter, with only the Far West and Southeast in line for near-normal readings.
    * * *
    The almanac – not to be confused with the New Hampshire-based Old Farmer’s Almanac which is 26 years older – attributes its forecasts to reclusive prognosticator Caleb Weatherbee, who uses a secret formula based on sunspots, the position of the planets and the tidal action of the moon.
    * * *
    The almanac is at odds with the National Weather Service, whose trends-based outlook calls for warmer than normal weather this winter over much of the country, including Alaska, said Ed O’Lenic, chief of the operations branch at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. The almanac and the weather service are in sync, however, in pointing to a chance of a drier winter in the Northwest.
    * * *

  8. A larger problem with early freeze wouldn’t so much be an impact on grain as you can, for example, harvest corn long after the ground is frozen solid and many do because it is easier to get vehicles into what might otherwise be muddy fields. As someone noted, silage will take a big hit because if it freezes, it is useless. You can’t store it in a silo, it will turn to rotten mush. If the ground freezes before wheat and beans can be harvested, there will be little winter wheat as you can’t plant after the ground has frozen but we are a ways from worrying about that yet.
    Winter wheat harvests were down in the Eastern Dakotas and Western Minnesota due to drought this winter so the farmers were already hurting. Spring wheat … this year’s summer crop has already begun harvest. They started bringing that in towards the end of July and early August. It was late due to delayed planting because of wet field conditions this spring. The fields were too wet to work, the crop isn’t delayed because of cold.

  9. By the way, here is a resource for following the wheat harvest for people who are interested.
    By the way, the main thing keeping world grain prices from going through the roof is a bumper crop in Russia this year. There is a lot of Russian grain on world markets, more than usual.

  10. Interesting post! Chilly weather for those folks in Northern Minnesota. Unfortunately, it doesn’t fit the MSM’s ‘agenda’…so it won’t be reported outside of the local area…I still think it is sunspots causing the so-called warming phenomenon….especially since there are no SUV’s or humans on any other planet! 🙂
    http://www.cookevilleweatherguy.com

  11. That’s where I live. Just few miles north of Duluth on the lake shore. Frost won’t happen here, because of the warmer lake waters. But just inland, they better cover up the tender plants. 2004 was the last time we seen some frigid weather this time of year.
    Here’s a breakdown of monthly departures for Duluth, and I-Falls respectively.
    Jan +1.6, +2.4
    Feb -4.7, -6.9
    Mar -3.1, -4.8
    Apr -1.1, -3.4
    May -3.3, -7.8
    Jun +0.1, -3.7
    Jul -1.1, -3.7
    Aug (+0.6), (-1.6)
    Jan-Jul -1.7, -4.0
    I-Falls, the “Icebox of The Nation”, is living up to name I guess. Nice to see positive departures in the winter. Means we got a break from the brutality.
    Yah, sure, you bet, A.

  12. The lead sounds about right.
    Been on the boat once this season–to put it on the lift. Haven’t even opened the cabin and already it’s time to grab the Poulan and fetch back some Caribou from the ice shack to fatten the dogs.
    Gawd, I love it up here!

  13. Its on Drudge, so a lot of folks looking at the main new media competitor to the MSM have access to this story.

  14. A little more on 2004. I-Falls set or tied 12 record lows in that summer. Duluth only 3, and those were in Aug.
    That was a chilly summer for the mid section of the country.
    http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/JJA04TDeptUS.png
    N MN experienced a warmer winter, then a cooler spring and summer, into a warmer fall and a slightly warmer 2005 winter. The ENSO was in a positive neutral for the 2004 winter then progressed to a weak El Nino by late summer. PDO was in a weakly positive state, also. Seems a little unusual to have such a colder summer during these phases, but there’s a lot to learn yet.

  15. Here is a salmon story that is counter to the usual “global warming is bad for salmon report”. Seems that the springs have been pretty cool in Alaska for the last few years and may be a cause for reduced returns in some areas

  16. Pingback: STAY WARM, WORLD… Roger Carr « Stay Warm, World…

  17. Shout out to David L Hagen,
    David, what do you know about the Super Collider experiment in 2010 which will prove Svensmark’s theory of cosmic rays forming cloud condensation nuclei? Is it on schedule? Thanks for the above info.

  18. That’s why I don’t live north west of Bemidji, MN any more. I had enough of that cold when I was a kid in the 1930’s. I well remember 1936, when it was -30 something in the kitchen when mom went down to light the fire in the cookstove in the morning, and I had to go out to the well to get water for breakfast. After breakfast my job was to saw and split firewood so mom could keep the house warm after sis and I walked two miles to school.
    I see that the SOHO Magnetogam shows another proto sun spot trying to emerge. The one last week didn’t make it, so we now have 35 days since the last spot. Something to do with cooling, maybe? This one looks like it is in the same spot as the one last week so it may be the same magnetic anomaly
    as the one last week still trying to form.

  19. As of 12:53 CDT, Hibbing and Ely reporting temps of 39F with dewpoints of 34F. It may be a challenge to see much of freeze, but scattered frost is almost a sure thing.

  20. David L. Hagen: “Following Svensmark’s preliminary experimental confirmation, CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research, is creating the CLOUD atmospheric research facility to quantify cosmic ray atmospheric aerosol nucleation.”
    I read somewhere that this proposed experiment at CERN had been axed.

  21. In early 2007, a Belgian professional meteorologist publicly said that here in Belgium there are gradually more heat waves. But this are the numbers of days at Uccle (where the Royal Meteorological Institute is situated) with maximum temperature of 30.0 °C or more:
    in 2006: 11
    in 2007: 2
    in 2008: 1
    Well, I know that no serious statistics can be made on such a short basis — except, of course, if the temperature goes the other way, as in this case one single hot summer ‘proves’ global warming… 🙂

  22. Here’s one a bit O/T that’s revealing in its spin:
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7580294.stm
    It’s about the glacial melt in the Alps and what’s being revealed. It now seems that there were warmer periods in the past — the Medieval Warm Period, the Roman Warm Period, and earlier warm periods. Artifacts are being revealed from these earlier eras as the ice melts. Of course, this is being spun as showing how earlier cyclical warm periods were natural but the Modern Warm Period is a result of AGW. The fact that current warming is just a continuation of previous cyclical events is being denied; can’t upset the AGW apple cart.
    We’ll probably have a few decades of cooling before the warming resumes for a couple centuries. After that, who knows how nasty the cooling will become.

  23. Crosspatch (19:00:37) :
    Russia has about 95 million metric tons silo capacity. Of course, that is only part of the picture. By no means all the silos are in the right place. More are needed in the southern and central parts of the country, where most grain is produced and exported.
    Building 100,000 tons of silo capacity in Russia costs about $50 million, including costs for rail, road and power connections and, while Russia seems to be able to find the money to finance its mad adventures in Georgia, it has been reluctant to invest in infrastructure.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZMAmxZXmpeI&refer=home

  24. C’mon guys –
    This is just another anecdote in the cacophony of climate debate humbug.
    There’s absolutely nothing unusual or meaningful about this “frost”, and
    I challenge anyone to show otherwise.
    In fact the 10 day forecast for North America looks to be on the warm side.
    http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp2.html

  25. Pierre,
    THE DULUTH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
    NORMAL RECORD YEAR
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 72 95 1888
    MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 52 40 1950
    Forecast: OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 28 TO 32
    DEGREE RANGE…”
    I’m just sayin…

  26. Reminds me of an old story:
    The young, modern leader of the Native Americans in North Dakota looked at the weather forcast for the upcoming winter given by the National Weather Service and advised his people to gather extra firewood as it seemed it might be a colder than normal winter. A month later he checked the forecast again and it was for an even colder winter so he advised his people to gather even more wood. A month later the forecast was again revised to be even colder so once again he advised his people to gather all the wood they could possibly find. The final pre-winter forecast was the coldest yet and the leader called the weather service to ask what was casuing them to believe the winter was going to be one of the coldest on record. Their reply was,”Do you see how much wood the Indians are gathering?”

  27. Something strange is going on in NAmerica. AGW stipulates a steadily warming, which mitigates the formation of continental polar air masses. In summer, these air masses can certainly form, but they should not have the kind of upper level support which can a)give them enough depth to withstand the modification of the hot earth’s surface and b)drive them deep into the southern mid-latitudes.
    This is now the 3rd consecutive NAmerican summer in which the eastern 1/2 has seen frontal passages well into the Dog Days. Cool, dry air has penetrated the Central Rockies, the Plains, and Eastern Seaboard. In an AGW scenario, the subtropical Hadley Cell would dominate NAmerica with summer long heat waves and droughts. Temps in St Paul should be near triple digits, Boston should be seeing temps in the 95-100 degree range, and the polar front should be bottled up in Central Canada.

  28. Jeff Wiita (22:43:57) :

    David, what do you know about the Super Collider experiment in 2010 which will prove Svensmark’s theory of cosmic rays forming cloud condensation nuclei? Is it on schedule? Thanks for the above info.

    I’m not David, and I don’t have time to look up the latest info, but see
    http://spacecenter.dk/research/sun-climate/experiments/the-cloud-experiment/cloud/
    for fairly recent details.
    There were financial problems in the past, really unfortunate given the current state of the sun, but AFAIK, it’s on track for 2010.

  29. While it is true that this ‘cooling’ is just anecdotal, we seem to have quite a few of them recently. How many ‘anecdotal’ warmings have we seen this year? I was in Ft. Worth a couple weeks back and it was over 100 every day. Ditto the drive from Colorado down. 104 at Limon at 9 AM. The last week of July/first week of August are the warmest times of the year, usually (Colorado can do just about anything) and this year was a bit above normal. So how many ‘cools’ verses ‘warms’ have we had? Over how big an area? Does it mean anything?
    If we get a bunch of ‘cools’ over the next few years, that could be another story. No matter what, I’m not selling my parka.

  30. Looks like the frost did hit.
    Ely, Minnesota went down for to -2.0C for several hours, Hibbing, Minnesota -1.C and Merril, Wisconsin got down to 0.0C which was the coldest area I could find in Wisconsin.

  31. It was chilly up in the Arrowhead this morning, but it won’t likely disturb much in the way of crop yields – not because it didn’t freeze, but because they don’t grow much grain in that part of MN. It probably did more to irritate the late summer campers in the BWCA and make a few black bears grumpy than anything else…
    Winter of 1995/96 saw the coldest recorded air termps in the continental US in that part of Minnesota: -60F outside of Ely. I remember a few interesting people went up there to camp outside in it so they could say they did.

  32. Pierre Gosselin (02:31:40) :
    “…“Gerald Bond suggested that every 1,500 years, weak solar activity caused by fluctuations in the sun’s magnetic fields cools the North Atlantic Ocean…””
    When WAS the last Bond Event, by the way?

  33. So with the last – official – sunspot on July 20th
    http://sidc.oma.be/products/ri_hemispheric/
    and no sunspots – officially – in August, the current spotless streak stands at 36 days.
    According to Jan Janssens Spotless Days table
    http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html
    we’re in the top 20 all-time (since 1849).
    Next major target is the 42-day streak from the last solar minimum in 1996, and it now seems we’ll make that with ease – less than a week to go.
    Once that’s in the bag, we will have smashed all records since 1913.

  34. Pierre: It looks like the record low of 40 will not only be beaten, but shattered by a freeze, with temps in the 28 – 30 range, of several hours duration. That could certainly be categorized as unusual, and becomes meaningful when added to the continued evidence globally of cooling.
    Egads! Climate change before industrialisation!
    from the Geophysical Research Letters,
    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/08/080819092017.htm

    From that same article though, according to geophysicist Springer ““Global warming will leave things like this in the dust. The natural oscillations here are nothing like what we would expect to see with global warming”.
    Sad when scientists feel they have to switch from science to pseudoscientific propaganda.

  35. crosspatch–any idea on the really important cereal grain – Barley – the stuff that goes the maltsters?
    Most of the production is in ND, MT, and ID if I recall correctly.

  36. Thank Jeff. For CLOUD enthusiasts see:
    CLOUD – Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets CERN
    CLOUD Proposal Documents
    INITIAL CLOUD RESOURCES & SCHEDULE Jan 20, 2006
    New Experiment to Investigate the Effect of Galactic Cosmic Rays on Clouds and Climate

    Geneva, 19 October 2006. A novel experiment, known as CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets), begins taking its first data today with a prototype detector in a particle beam at CERN1, the world’s largest laboratory for particle physics. The goal of the experiment is to investigate the possible influence of galactic cosmic rays on Earth’s clouds and climate. This represents the first time a high energy physics accelerator has been used for atmospheric and climate science.

    For a major 2008 review see:
    Documents on Cosmoclimatology & CLOUD
    See: Whiterose Online copy
    Brian H. Brown, Short-term changes in global cloud cover and in cosmic radiation, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics Volume 70, Issue 7, May 2008, Pages 1122-1131

    Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) have been suggested as a possible contributory mechanism to cloud formation. . . .There is an association between short-term changes in low cloud cover and galactic cosmic radiation over a period of several days. This could arise if approximately 3% of the variations in cloud cover resulted from GCR.

    (significance p=0.06)
    Cosmic rays and climate Jasper Kirkby, Surveys in Geophysics 28, 333–375, doi: 10.1007/s10712-008-9030-6 (2007). (CERN-PH-EP/2008-005, 26 March 2) 45 page review

    The main experiments are:
    * Ion-induced nucleation:
    * Growth of CN into CCN:
    * Activation of CCN into cloud droplets:
    * Ice particle formation:
    * Collision efficiencies of aerosols and droplets:
    * Freezing mechanism of polar stratospheric clouds:
    . . .The most persuasive palaeoclimatic evidence for
    solar/GCR forcing involves sub-orbital (centennial and millennial) climate variability over the Holocene, for which there is no established forcing agent at present. Increased GCR flux appears to be associated with a cooler climate, a southerly shift of the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) and a weakening of the monsoon;. . .The satellite data suggest that decreased GCR flux is associated with decreased low altitude clouds, which are known to exert globally a net radiative cooling effect. Studies of Forbush decreases and solar proton events further suggest that decreased GCR flux may reduce high altitude (polar stratospheric) clouds in the Antarctic.. . .Real progress on the cosmic ray-climate question will require a physical mechanism to be established, or else ruled out. With new experiments planned or underway, such as the CLOUD facility at CERN, there are good prospects that we will have some firm answers to this question within the next few years.

  37. Hoonah, Alaska seems to be swinging 40degrees every 4 hours?? Equipment problems? Bifocals required?

  38. Minnesota had a late cold spring as well. We had snow on the ground into early May in southern Minnesota even!
    Corn is not grown in the upper 1/3 of the state anyway, so don’t worry about corn prices over this.

  39. What exactly would it take for “anecdotal” to turn into “evidence”? Not saying it has, just wondering. Also, what would it take for global warming people to acccept global cooling? What evidence and what signs and for how long?
    I’m not saying there is global cooling, again, this is just a question, posed mainly at anyone on here who is part of the global warming crowd.

  40. Stevie:
    They used to say 20 years was a climate trend. They would pull this out when someone said “10 years with no warming”.
    Now some are starting to say 30 years. I suspect that this is the new position because 20 years of no warming could well happen due to the PDO shift.
    David

  41. hyonmin (07:33:51) :
    “Hoonah, Alaska seems to be swinging 40degrees every 4 hours?? Equipment problems? Bifocals required?”
    Here’s the official answer:
    “08/016 – SVC ASOS TP/DP UNREL. WIE UNTIL UFN. CREATED: 14 AUG 21:51 2008”
    It’s a NOTAM (Notice to Airmen), for PAOH (Hoonah Airport) and it says “ASOS (Automated Surface Observing System) Temperature/Dewpoint unreliable.”
    (And the rest says, WIE (with immediate effect), UFN (until further notice)
    Apparently the system has been busted for more than 10 days, so I don’t know why it’s temp. & dew point reports are still getting into the system.
    REPLY: This might be the reason – the HO83 thermohygrometer, which is notoriously unrelieable. We’ve looked at it quite a bit, see links below.
    http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/01/21/guest-weblog-by-professor-ben-herman-of-the-university-of-arizona-maximum-temperature-trends/
    http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/01/10/inside-the-asos-ho83-tempdewpoint-sensor/
    -Anthony

  42. Stevie B (08:13:45) :

    What exactly would it take for “anecdotal” to turn into “evidence”? Not saying it has, just wondering. Also, what would it take for global warming people to acccept global cooling? What evidence and what signs and for how long?

    Anecdotes are evidence. The next step up generally requires planned observations that are designed to cut down on noise, i.e. “empirical evidence”. Get enough of that and then you can come up with statistical evidence. See my http://wermenh.com/climate/science.html for of my definition of types of evidence.
    As for the warmists to accept cooling? That may not happen until hell freezes over.
    Or maybe when they pay their heating bill this winter.

  43. Austin (08:45:35) :
    ” The last Bond event began in +-450 AD. We are due.
    The Younger Dryas is now confirmed as a Bond Event.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1500-year_climate_cycle
    Like I said earlier, we have the four possibilities to consider.
    1. Warmer.
    2. The same
    3. Grand Minimum
    4. Dryas event ”
    We’re due for a Bond Event, we’re due for SIM (Solar Inertial Motion) solar minimum
    http://www.griffith.edu.au/conference/ics2007/pdf/ICS176.pdf
    we’re due for a multi-decadal period of low solar activity
    http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24Clilverd.pdf
    http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10may_longrange.htm
    probably a Grand Minimum of solar activity,
    even Milankovitch Cycles
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles#The_future
    “…this model predicts that the long-term cooling trend which began some 6,000 years ago will continue for the next 23,000 years.”
    If the “AGW” movement had started, say, 100 years ago, today those guys would be ruling a Low Carbon “sustainable” world, and we’d be in even worse shape for the future than we are now.
    I think the Modern Warm Period has bred complacency (not surprisingly – we’re only living the life our ancestors could only dream about for countless generations), and we are not ready for the big SLAP of reality which is, I believe, inevitable.

  44. Drew Latta (07:11:33) :
    crosspatch–any idea on the really important cereal grain – Barley – the stuff that goes the maltsters?
    Drew,
    Are you worried about the price of barley or the commensurate impact on the price of brew? 😉 We may need something stronger than beer to get through this winter.

  45. I live in Central Wisconsin, and I can attest to the fact that this is simply a continuation of the last year. I know we aren’t to apply global implications to regional variations, but we had the onset of winter weather early in 2007 compared to most prior years in memory. In conjunction, we had a late snow melt compared to any recent years. May was very cool and rainy, and I specifically remember the fisrt summery weatehr being mid-June, because I lucked out with that – welcomed a new baby on June 14th, took three weeks off work, and had glorious weather to enjoy. But normally, that would have first come in May.
    It’s been a beautiful summer since, but notably we’ve had zero days hit 90 degrees here. While Wisconsin is not known for its warmth, it is unusual to have no days above ninety. Only a handful of days have exceeded 85 degrees. A lot of average temp days, a lot of below average temp days, and very few above average temp days.
    On warm days, it seems that the nights have cooled off more than in recent memory. Not cold, but cool enouogh that shorts and a t-shirt don’t quite cut it.
    Our tomatoes are behind. Our pumpkins are behind. Our watermelons are non-existent. Some crops did very well, but those that need more warmth and sunlight are not doing the greatest.
    All anecdotal, but this year feels quite different than any in recent memory. The frost warning, thankfully, is north of us. But that’s pretty early even for us northern folk.

  46. From looking at the ASU sat data it looks like August is about .15C cooler than July and most forecasts have continued cool weather forecast for the rest of the month.
    I know in DC it is supposed to hit a high of 79F tomorrow — 79F , in DC, in August, are you kidding me?

  47. I like to check out these maps on a weekly basis:
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/
    Comments:
    (1) Right now, there look to be a number of negative departures (especially Australia – our friends down under appear to be freezing), and most other regions are around average
    (2) Can someone explain to me what the deal is with Mexico? It’s a bizarre map, to say the least.
    (3) The one area that is bright red is part of the Former Soviet Union. I wonder how much weight that are will be given in the final anomaly analysis.

  48. These reports make me wonder WHY cold weather is happening in Wisconsin/Minnesota/Alaska but not here in Southern California? Is it something like the jet stream being north of it’s usual position? Does the trend there mean anything for where I live? Often when we get good rains here, Washington state reports a drought, and vice-versa. It seems like a zero-sum game.
    I am trying to figure out what to call the short term trends (maybe I just did). Weather is defined as the conditions in the air right now. Climate is some kind of long term trend. What do you call what happens in between, lets say 2-3 months, or 1-10 years?
    BTW. Thanks Anthony for making such a great site. It seems very friendly here.
    REPLY: Thanks, everyone has to behave here.

  49. High plains of northeast Oregon at the base of the Wallowa Mountains: 23 degrees colder than last month, 18 degrees colder than last year. I had to wear a jacket at 2:00 in the afternoon to mow my lawn.

  50. Bill (13:58:16)-
    DC was 92 today, +7 on the high. A 79 tomorrow would be -6. I don’t see the big deal. August will finish about normal on the month, following a very warm June and a warm July.

  51. Pamela, that is not very encouraging. The Far West is having a bad summer. Not only did it start late, it was affected by insolation reduction due to smoke. And now, summer is over weeks prior to the equinox. Oh sure we’ll get a couple more “heat waves” but those will be autumnal type events. By the normal time of such events, weather will likely be more of a true winter pattern.

  52. Dan McCune,
    A bit of facetiousness, no doubt. I have read that Germans were having some problems with reduced barley acreage due to the competition between brew and fuel. (Home)brewers have been already hard hit by real hop shortages in terms of price and availability. The Great Hop Shortage of ’08 is mostly due to market practices that plague commodities markets across the world (boom and bust cycles) and some bad weather in a few places.
    Of course the corn crop in the Corn Belt is up from dismal predictions early in the summer with all of that La Nina rain we got this spring/early summer.
    The solution (I guess): switch to grain alcohol. 😉

  53. Steve W: Don’t know about CA, but I was reading that the warmer weather in Alaska resulted from the colder canadian air dipping further south which is what gave the northern U.S. some colder weather in the spring… it certainly was cooler, and later, here in Iowa!
    On the other hand, I recall in the 60s that frost almost always came in early September (like Labor Day, the first week of school) and a freeze by October 1st… but that hasn’t seemed to happen at all, the last 10 years at least. If we were getting frost by Sep 10th or so, regularly, I would think that frost in MN about now would not be unusual… freezing temps of course are, but is that widespread or just localized? And, will it continue, or is it just a temporary departure from the norm?
    This winter was extremely snowy (which is the main reason for the disastrous flood here in Cedar Rapids), and that was due to a warmer winter (when it’s colder it doesn’t snow)… except that we usually have a warm spell sometime in January/February, which we didn’t this past winter.
    On the other other hand, a few years ago it was SO warm that it was too warm for snow (it rained all December, which is why I finally mowed my lawn for the last time of the season in January that year, when it dried out), and April got into the 80s and never went down (but, in even earlier years it has actually snowed in May, not to mention April of course)
    So, what to make of all this ‘evidence’? I have no idea, except that I predict it will be colder this year and less snow… unless it’s warmer, in which case we’ll probably have less snow… (We had a LOT of snow this past year!)
    By the way, I wonder how Norway is doing? Form what I understand it was a very warm winter there, I wonder how their summer is?
    But ultimately, I do have a question… accuweather keeps showing the monthly charts showing most of the world is warmer, even through this summer, with lots of red dots (+ variance) and only a few blue ones… yet I see so many people here talking about global cooling. How are the two resolved, where are the charts that show global cooling, I’d like to see that…

  54. Diatribical Idiot,
    Nice site you linked to. w/respect to “Can someone explain to me what the deal is with Mexico?” I was there in late July, north of Mexico City (Queretaro and Tecozautla), and I had to wear a jacket in the mornings, it was high 50’s low 60’s where I was. Warmed up nicely during the day. Its a dry, mountainous area so maybe that’s not so unusual, but the map colors that area pink, as warmer than normal.
    Similarly (more anecdotal) a few weeks before that I was on the coast of the Dominican Republic in the last week of June, first part of July and I was very comfortable taking afternoon naps with only a fan going. In April 2007 I was sweating like a horse in that same area, this year’s July was much milder.
    But I agree, the map for Mexico looks strange.

  55. JP Rourke: “except that we usually have a warm spell sometime in January/February, which we didn’t this past winter.”
    Good observation. I remember that now. It never really melted enough to clear all of the snow/ice off the sidewalks during the winter.
    My prediction is that we’ll have a bumper crop of bright leaves if this cooler than average weather pattern holds up without a freeze. (Since it is almost useless to predict the weather for the winter…)

  56. Holy Crap! I just found out we have a frost advisory in Southern Oregon right on the California border! Just over the border in California is a major wine growing region and grapes have not yet been harvested. Bet the wind machines will be out in force tonight.
    REPLY: I’ve posted on this, thank you for the tip. – Anthony

  57. “Bet the wind machines will be out in force tonight.” Pamela
    I’m doing my best. But since California is insanely green, a light coating of white might be good for them

  58. Wind machines are used to prevent frost damage in orchards. I wasn’t speaking of blow hards. But the double meaning is a hoot!!!

  59. Pingback: More frost advisories before Labor Day « Watts Up With That?

  60. Latest news from N. Minnesota (10 miles east of Hibbing): lakes did not freeze over as predicted, low last night was 38F at my residence. Dunno where the official temp is taken, must be at the top of the local radio tower (not much in the way of hills around here) to get that below freezing temp. With all the windows open, the trailer only got down to 60F this morning, and it was in the 70’s today during the day. I think the weather service extrapolates these temps somehow, based on a weather station in Duluth and calls them ‘official’. Sounds like the methods of someone else involved in the global warming climate change scientology debate that we’ve heard about……….

  61. RJ:
    “Lakes did not freeze over as predicted…”
    Um… were there really those predicting that lakes would freeze over? It takes more than a few hour dip below freezing for that to happen.

  62. We will know it is global warming when the orange orchards are back in Georgia and South Carolina. Right now the winters are to cold for the oranges.
    In the book “1421” the author talks about how the Chinese Armada sailed across the northern edge of Canada. They mapped the land mass. The only way they could sail across is because it was warmer. If you recall the English explorer Henry Hudson could not find passage across Canada. A mini ice age started by 1430.
    At one time wine vineyards were growing in Greenland and in Nova Scotia.
    Not any more.

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