From Joe Bastardi at WeatherBell:
Been warning anyone that will listen for over 2 weeks now about April 1-10. Check out GFS lows next Wednesday
He adds:
EURO [forecast model] Going roidian on multiple cold shots, snow threats April 1-10
That’s a deep trough. Coupled with cold, it looks like winter wonderland for much of the northeast in the first week of April.
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Enjoy the Frosty NY
That’s not an Arctic blast its climate change – See we told you so!
nuff pc talk, this is raw uncut greenhouse fect and it ain’t heppy … stop making carbon! .. suffer record snow … pick one1 … prolly too late.
north west passage jaunt will be fiiiiiiiine! … et’s hot up there donchaknow?
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/04/04/1800Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=260.14,69.53,325/loc=-64.195,71.271
Who’s this WE you’re talking about?
Climate Change = WEATHER you unicorn poop eating child.
I thought it was global warming, oh no cooling, oh.never mind global climate change
Well, we do know the Sun’s path oscillates back and forth as it circles the earth. Seems to be a seasonal thing with it.
Mondo chilly in Toronto and Ottawa, too,
Split up more wood, and left the horses to shed naturally. Ain’t May yet, folks, and this is New England. Beware the Pogonip!
Time to develop a new skill to prepare for a cooling planet. 😰
https://youtu.be/Lq1DyaKJzfk
Nice.
Well get a load of all of those nano-counties back there in the Eastern USA.
They have counties/burroughs/shires/parishes/whatever, some of them smaller than my garage.
No wonder they have so many politicians back East. Everybody is a chief.
g
yeah like my county (bergen , nj) only 246.671 sq mi but a population of 938,506. That’s 50% more people than oh say DENVER.
Imagine if this wasn’t the warmest year ever…
/sarc
So it looks like Holden’s “personal opinion ” was correct: extreme coldness is caused by global warming. So unless we cut emissions NOW the coming La Nina could be very cold indeed.
Then we’ll need more heating; more emissions leading to more cold weather. This “could” reach a tipping point eventually leading to so much global warming it could trigger the next glaciation.
And then the seas would contract back into glaciers and more of Florida would come out of the ocean again!
You forgot the /sarc
So what’s news about the coming Ice Age? Don’t forget taxes, mental retardation, rednecks and Donald Trump are all caused by Global Warming. AlGore told me!
Sadly—this is exactly what “they” the global warming crowd will say, The melting of the glaciers in the artic circle will cause a major shift in the salinity of the water, the gulf stream will reverse pushing cold water far south, which will lower the jet stream by several hundred miles. This will expand the amount of ARTIC VORTEXES which will lead to massive snowfall across the entire North American Continent. We are ALL DOOMED! DOOMED!
Imagine if people were able to make the distinction between weather and climate…
/s
Imagine if climate alarmists gave credit to El Nino for the warmest year evah, rather than claiming it was all because of AGW.
benben, climate models have no predictive value. There’s no scientific evidence that human CO2 emissions have done anything to the global climate (except as a possible side-effect of verified global greening).
So, paraphrasing you, Imagine if people were able to make the distinction between science and the climate scare.
FJ Shepherd: Well, I imagine that you guys must think Hansen is about as “alarmist” as they get and here is his discussion of 201: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2016/20160120_Temperature2015.pdf Note the sentence in the abstract that says, “The 2015 temperature was boosted by a strong El Niño, nearly of the same strength as the 1998 ‘El Niño of the century’.”
So, in fact, you have created a complete strawman. Who you call “alarmists” and most people call “scientists” have discussed this rationally. It is some other who have been less rational and have attempted to say that the fact that there was an El Nino means that the record warmth is ascribable only to this and not to the combination of the gradually rising baseline due to AGW and then the positive fluctuation due to El Nino.
yeah yeah Pat I know your opinion. But confusing weather and climate is a pretty ridiculous thing to do for someone who actually writes on a blog dedicated to climate change, wouldn’t you agree?
Yes, benben, the alarmists confuse weather and climate all the time, depending on whether the weather supports their dogma or not.
Well if by “people” you mean the climastrologists, then you have a point:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/02/24/are-climate-modelers-scientists/
Imagine if real climate scientists read your replies or looked at your upside down charts.
For those who didn’t get the memo:
2011: Weather is now climate
“A few years ago, talking about weather and climate change in the same breath was a cardinal sin for scientists.
Now it has become impossible to have a conversation about the weather without discussing wider climate trends, according to researchers who prepared the Australian Climate Commission’s latest report.
Previously, ”weather is not climate” was the mantra, but now the additional boost from greenhouse gases was influencing every event.
It might even be the case that the mantra chanted after every catastrophic weather event – that it can’t be said to be caused by climate change, but it shows what climate change will do – has become a thing of the past.”
http://www.theage.com.au/national/climate-change-a-key-factor-in-extreme-weather-experts-say-20130303-2fefv.html
November 12, 2009
“Climate change is making itself felt in terms of day-to-day weather in the United States,” says Gerald Meehl, the lead author and a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/1036/record-high-temperatures-far-outpace-record-lows-across-us
Weather is when it’s cold as well as hot.
benben in truth you really can’t separate the two climate is the chef and weather is that which is served. Now you ordered a fajita, and you have just been served… cold cuts.
michael.
p.s. sorry no grey poupon.
Imagine if benben were able to recall what Barry’s court astrologer claimed about arctic oscillations…
“benben, climate models have no predictive value. There’s no scientific evidence that human CO2 emissions have done anything to the global climate (except as a possible side-effect of verified global greening).”
If you say so Pat – it must be true.
Stands to reason, eh?
Toneb,
Just about anything ‘stands to reason’ compared with the juvenile ‘benben’.
Funny you should play his big brother. Makes you look pretty desperate.
I’m going to remember your sarcastic aside Benben.
Whenever I next see you lurking about on comment threads on various blogs and you’re getting all crazy about a hot day I can remind you that it’s “just weather”
For years and years warmists have shouted about “global warming” and telling us that every day is going to be sweltering, but whenever the globe hasn’t been warm you start screaming, “but that’s wethaaaar!!!”. It’s your ultimate get-out clause.
Warmists are absolutely full of it; that’s why your average man on the street quite rightly thinks CAGW is a non-starter:
http://data.myworld2015.org/
“Imagine if climate alarmists gave credit to El Nino for the warmest year evah, rather than claiming it was all because of AGW.”
Imaging if things happened that are never going to happen in a million years.
Joel Shore,
Some scientists are good about not blaming weather
and El nino for climate change. Many others are not.
There is also a big difference for many of them between
what they write in a paper and what they put in the abstract,
what the university publicity office says about the paper,
what the press says about the paper, and most importantly,
what the scientist says to the press about the paper.
Hansen is clearly alarmist about the next 50 to 300 years
w.r.t. sea level rise and in his most recent online pub, he goes
so far that many climate alarmists even say he is out there.
Yes, imagine that everyone could/would make that distinction. Now imagine that you, in the past, had pointed out the distinction to the folks you know every time the MSM and the CAGW zealots would associate a heat event with long term catastrophes. Now imagine you doing the same thing in the future.
Do you have that vivid of an imagination?
… kinda like “confusing” the terms investment & subsidy. (do they do it on purpose, when it suits them, or are they just ignorant?)
Imagine if you weren’t public school welfare fodder and could read a thermometer.
And that your scientists didn’t get busted and admit adding every single tenth degree to global records since 1998 like Phil Jones did in his Feb 2010 BBC don’t-go-to-jail interview.
And sue a man for telling people what a liar he is and lie in the lawsuit that he had won a Nobel Prize, so the man was calling a Nobel Prize winner,
a sleazy liar.
Imagine if all that didn’t happen. Imagine if your scientific leadership James Hansen didn’t tell you
”there’s a runaway green house effect on Venus” until you stumbled out of public school barely able to scratch your name, only to find out here on W.U.W.T that you can calculate the temperature of Earth, Venus, Mars – all just fine, with standard gas equations.
Imagine you’re the person who believed all that crap, and you came into a place filled with scientific bloggers and told those people they don’t understand ‘thuh signts”
but the craven criminopaths and liars you showed up toting water for, do.
toneb: All you have to do to realize that the models have no predictive value is to compare their predictions to reality.
Who is confusing “weather with climate”? What group of people are you talking about? I see nothing but a post discussing a sharp drop in temps over the eastern US. Interesting, is it not?
All Benben (lame troll) and his fellow hysterians do is talk about weather, a flood, a bit of snow, some rain, no rain. After 10 years of whinging weather is not climate, all they talk about is weather now.
All weather is proof apparently, except when it isn’t.
Hot day = climate change, ship of fools = just weather
So it can be cold for a few days in the some parts of the U.S and yet still have record heat elsewhere on Earth…who knew!
RE Joel:
And the rest of the discussion – global warming has reached 1 deg, etc.
How much have they adjusted temperatures? How much data is fiction – filled in? 40 percent give or take.
spaatch, yeah Crutem4 has 5583 surface stations, 1064 in the contiguous USA, for 19%, whilst representing about 6% of the earth’s land surface. So the contiguous USA is over-represented by surface stations. The Southern Hemisphere meanwhile has at best 12% of the surface stations.
So tell me about GLOBAL temperatures.
https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/crutem4/station-data.htm
Yep, that’s why the warming is not “global”
Hot in one place, cold in another. It’s what the Earth has been like since time began and nothing to do with our minimal contribution to a trace gas.
[snip – multiple policy violations. Fake name, Tor server, incoherent rant accusing people of being criminals -mod]
I do like a good belly laugh in the morning thank you Eric.
James Bull
Yes, then the forecast would be for ‘9s and 19s’ rather than ’10s and 20s’
Obviously, that’s caused by Global Warming. It can cause *anything*, after all.
Oh, No, not right in the middle of the hottest year Evah! How could that possibly happen! It must be caused by Global Warming, folks.
Yuk!
From the second map, single digits in western MA. North Adams: 5, Pittsfield: 6, and that is F, not C. Low double digits throughout the rest of the state. Well, we did have an exceptionally mild Feb. But still, Brrrrrrr.
My friends laughed at me when I quoted the Farmers Almanac on the progression from winter to spring. Tee-hee.
More proof of Global Warming.
Will it ever end?
Not if they can help it.
According to the AER:
‘If the AO does turn sharply negative as predicted in the most recent model runs then below normal temperatures should become more widespread across Northern Eurasia and Eastern North America for the second half of April.’
I’ll just have to keep the VT biomass burning. Feel the Bern !
Garden’s going to need the CO2 pretty soon …
Heh you too eh? Nice and cozy with a wood stove, saves on dehumidifier in basement as well.
Just in time for “Gore’s global warming on trial”
It’s missing Gores press conference by over a week. Bad timing Gaia:-)
That would have been funny to see ManBearPig ankle deep in the snow blaming Exxon for Globull Warming.
Yep. Just a little too early to put the tomatoes in the cold frame. Meanwhile, I hope the apple and pear buds don’t get frozen off.
@jpatrick, I am more worried about peaches , cherries, apricots, right now they are way more in danger. Apples, pears are a lot hardier and later blooming. ( hey maybe they knew it was coming?).
This ‘extreme weather” event brought to you by Climate Change™.
Climate Change™; because you know it’s all your fault.
Trough, schmogh.
It’s all my fault – I took the plastic off the inside of the windows a week or 2 ago when it got so warm here.
(Please don’t hurt me. ;-p )
I always wanted to see that word in print…
Which one? Plastic?
Schmogh.
We should get a pot of money together and offer it to the great coalition of AG’s so they can meet and discuss the CAGW problem … as long as they do it in central park next week.
Not entirely sarcastic: How can it NOT have a connection to April Fools when Gore and Holdren are involved? If we used actual, unadjusted data the warmest US years are in the 30s. Facts are stubborn things. The warmest year “evah” isn’t the warmest in a century even. Only fools miss the significance of 2015 not being warmer than 4 years in the 20th Century. A cooling trend does not prove “Global Warming”.
Hi Joe,
Thanks for the 5h1ttie news.
I had plans you know. Now I have other plans and they aren’t near as fun.
All depends on who you are snow bound with.
Well at least the cherry blossoms are out in DC before the freeze comes. Some fruit trees in the North East are in for a “shock”.
Interesting similarities to a blend of the early Aprils of 03 and 07 El Nino fades and for instance March of 07 very warm, then coldest Masters morning on record! Might give it a run again late next week. Biggest news is CFSV2 has succumbed to reality since the “fix” and is showing the coming La Nina. As it comes on hot summer in US and increase in in close tropical cyclone activity ( gulf has me worried) means ensuing global temp fall will be buried in news by pushing of heat and hurricanes, even though we all expect summers to have both.
Looks like anomalously high temperatures in the Arctic for at least the next seven days, especially on the seventh day at the north pole…looks like over +25F anomaly
Climate Reanalyzer
http://bit.ly/1UDBy6b
Fiddled while dome burned.
The readers at WUWT missed an interesting phenomenon and despite having two famous meteorologists participating in this thread, as well as four dozen clicks of my link, not one comment was made about this weather event.
FYI: It is forecast to continue for another week.
Here’s what I know. Last fall, the guys at Weatherbell (Aleo, Bastardi, et al) predicted an average precipitation year for California, when lots of others were whistling past the El Nino graveyard expecting a drought-busting deluge. Ahem.
So when those guys says something is gonna be, I reckon I oughta listen.
There is a large cyclone going to park just off South Greenland for a few days. Cheer up! This process is part of the way that the earth gets rid of heat, by pumping it high in the atmosphere, and northward to open water. Also, the ‘atmospheric rivers in all the oceans help with it, too.
Here is something I wrote in Sept of 2014 on a story from CNBC….”A possible bright note is that I see a good possibility for strong spring rains next year. The year after that should bring a normal rain { edit: meaning the winter of 2015/16}, and the year after that {edit: meaning the winter of 2016/17} will be a likely candidate for a flood event in Northern California.”. cnbc story…http://www.cnbc.com/2014/09/10/california-rice-farmer-drought-may-make-us-quit-and-sell.html
The spring of 2015 brought moderate rain through the coastal northwest, the best rains seen in years until this winter. The overall forecast was good. Next winter will show if the last part of the forecast is right or wrong.
http://www.meteoexploration.com/maproom/figures/tmp2mAK096.png
Northern Pacific looks chilly, too.
Bill Murray had the right idea about what to do with Punxsutawney Phil…
Glad I’m not an alarmist. They pray day and night for their side to win? Kind of sick if you think about it. Wasting their whole lifes work and career on hoping to be right about the misery bestwed onto others.
What’s even more sad is their solutions to the unvalidated theory; destroy the well being of billions of people. These Sad scientist and their groupy followers are really only a proxy in a bigger more disturbing agenda of the left, total power and control over free people and their markets……at any cost!
Global cooling, or more likely local cooling, is the worst case scenario that will compromise current resources and processes to sustain large population and production centers.
That said, it is still a chaotic system that functions in a semi-stable state, which would suggest that rational mitigation efforts are valuable, but catastrophic changes (e.g. severe misalignment) are likely counterproductive and even harmful.
In a nutshell!
Is there a place we can find out if this is a stark difference from “normal”? Because as others have mentioned a cold snap will do a hell of a lot more damage that a “warm” spell. Thoughts?
Yes, you can. Here are the stats [from the first ?] few days.
Degrees F
…..this the record setting low for April.
Hope the chart is readable. Seems to have tabs in it.
That is for Boston.
Intellicast has a nice page for stats…http://www.intellicast.com/Local/History.aspx?location=USNY0011
Al Gore Axiom is in play, never invite him anywhere until July, late July.
Just in time for the Democracy Spring protest march from philly to DC on Apr 2-11.
That will be invigorating weather for a march.