Chicken al la still not a king

The royal prince in waiting of Britain labels climate skeptics as “headless chickens”.

From The Telegraph:

Prince Charles has criticised climate change deniers, describing them as the “headless chicken brigade” during an awards ceremony recognising a leading young green entrepreneur.

Charles, who has campaigned for years to reduce global warming, also spoke out against “the barrage of sheer intimidation” from powerful anti-climate change groups during the event held at Buckingham Palace last night.

The mark of a true leader is bringing people with diverse views and backgrounds together, clearly with this recent pronouncement, Prince Charles clearly has failed as a leader.

I’ll point out a few things the prince who may be king should know, but doesn’t, or chooses not to.

1. Rational climate skeptics don’t doubt that some portion of the proposed greenhouse effect is real, it’s just that nobody (and that includes many scientists) seems to be able to agree upon how much. The few who actually deny the Greenhouse effect exists, such as the “Slayers” aka “Principia Scientific” only represent the views of a fringe.

2. Item 1 then leads to arguments about climate sensitivity, values are literally “all over the map”:

image
Figure 1: Climate sensitivity estimates from new research published since 2010 (colored, compared with the range given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (gray) and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5; black). The arrows indicate the 5 to 95% confidence bounds for each estimate along with the best estimate (median of each probability density function; or the mean of multiple estimates; colored vertical line). Ring et al. (2012) present four estimates of the climate sensitivity and the red box encompasses those estimates. The right-hand side of the IPCC AR4 range is dotted to indicate that the IPCC does not actually state the value for the upper 95% confidence bound of their estimate and the left-hand arrow only extends to the 10% lower bound as the 5% lower bound is not given. The light grey vertical bar is the mean of the 14 best estimates from the new findings. The mean climate sensitivity (3.4°C) of the climate models used in the IPCC AR5 is 13 percent greater than the IPCC’s “best estimate” of 3.0°C and 70% greater than the mean of recent estimates (2.0°C).

3.  The global climate isn’t responding as it was predicted by government scientists, the trend over the last 12 years is basically flat:

image
Figure 2: Global Average Surface Temperatures, 2001-2012

Compare that to climate sensitivity predictions, which center around .2°C

image
Figure 3: 12-year Trends compared to climate sensitivity predictions from Figure 1

The three graphs above are from Michaels and Knappenberger in this post.

4. The response of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is nearing saturation, which may explain why there is little warming over the last 12 years:

The Inconvenient Skeptic
Figure 4: Red: The AGW accepted climate sensitivity of 0.81 (3C for doubling) Green: Climate sensitivity of 0.28 (1C for doubling) Blue: Climate sensitivity of 0.066 (0.24C for doubling)

Figure 4 is from this WUWT post: Sensitivity Training: Determining the Correct Climate Sensitivity

5. While rational climate skeptics point out reality based factual inconsistencies with warming projections, the global warming movement has been hijacked by emotional activists, such as Bill McKibben and Al Gore, who use emotional pleas and invective to motivate people. You won’t see them ever show the graphs above because they don’t deal in facts, only emotional appeals.

6. By making an emotional label about climate skeptics, instead of dealing with facts, Prince Charles demonstrates that’s he’s no different than Bill McKibben and Al Gore. Given recent opinion polls, he’s basically called about half of his potential subjects “the headless chicken brigade”, yet it is he who seems to be centered on the emotionalism and randomness more suited to that label.

Perhaps there is a reason the Queen has held on so long.

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Otter (ClimateOtter on Twitter)
February 1, 2014 9:13 am

Erm… ‘Pleas,’ not ‘please.’ Please. [fixed – voice recognition doesn’t always choose the right word -A]
And: The image of a headless chicken implies PANIC. Skeptics are not the ones panicking- the likes of prince Charles would prefer that people blindly listen to ‘science’ AND PANIC.

February 1, 2014 9:14 am

Tsk Tsk, Mr. Watts, “Britain” not “England”
Otherwise, fair comment.
REPLY:Changed. I can never figure out which is correct, England, United Kingdom, and Britain are essentially interchangeable terms in the American psyche, at least that’s my view of it – Anthony

Speed
February 1, 2014 9:15 am

Nice suit.

nigelf
February 1, 2014 9:18 am

Charles is a Malthusian just like his father. The Queen I’m unsure of.

Rick
February 1, 2014 9:19 am

The Prince of Wails has shown a complete disregard and lack of understanding regarding his role of titular head of state. I believe Queen Elizabeth will be the last monarch if the crown is passed to this foolish man.

markhighland
February 1, 2014 9:23 am

Great stuff Anthony, but the fact that you regard Britain and England as interchangeable is one of the reasons Scots are pushing for independence!

Jim Brock
February 1, 2014 9:24 am

Prince Charles reminds me of another headless chicken…the rooster that had his head chopped off but lived on. No brain, but just the stem. Rational thinking exterminated.

David Chorley
February 1, 2014 9:26 am

Until Scotland decides to leave and re-enter bankruptcy, it is the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Great Britain is the largest island in the Northwestern European Archipelago. Britain is divided into England Wales and Scotland. Wales was conquered by the English under Edward I. Scotland craved union in the early 1700s due to bankruptcy from the failed Darien expedition which tried to establish a Scottish colony in the central American isthmus.

February 1, 2014 9:27 am

Thanks for the correction.
The country is called “Great Britain and Northern Ireland”; the type of country is a Kingdom as opposed to a Republic, and in 1707 England and Scotland, as separate sovereign nations, joined together to become a new country called “Great Britain”, and thus a “United Kingdom” in that two Kingdoms united to become one.
Ireland joined G. B. in 1800 to give G. B. & Ireland, and Eire left last century leaving only N. Ireland.
V. confusing to almost everyone including lots of folk over here.

February 1, 2014 9:27 am

Nice post Anthony. It was simple and to the point. Unfortunately, I don’t think the Prince has the intellectual tools with which to comprehend even this simple, short, and direct argument. I would love to be proved wrong of course.

John Law
February 1, 2014 9:28 am

Be careful Anthony previous Kings had the power to render people “headless”.
But we in the “United Kingdom” will ensure that, at his coronation, he is wearing the “Crown Jewels” and a specially designed Royal “Straight-Jacket”.

February 1, 2014 9:28 am

I note my projection and my name is missing
I am saying in 2038 we will will be back with temps.to where we were in 1950
just saying
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/04/29/the-climate-is-changing/

February 1, 2014 9:29 am

Mods.
I think my use of the word “Anthony” landed my comment in the moderation basket. Weird.

REPLY:
Nothing weird about that, comments addressed to me are held so that I have a better chance to see them – Anthony

pokerguy
February 1, 2014 9:29 am

“The global climate isn’t responding as it was predicted by government scientists, the trend over the last 12 years is basically flat:”
Anthony, Why are you under selling this? The trend can be just as credibly described as flat for 17 years.

Richard M
February 1, 2014 9:31 am

Anyone else notice the big divergence in 2013?
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:2013/plot/rss/from:2013/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2013/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2013/trend
Part of that is due to the high January anomaly that affected satellite data the most, but it still diverges independent of that factor. Before 2013 the divergence was much less.

john robertson
February 1, 2014 9:31 am

Charles; The reason Queen Elizabeth will not relinquish the crown.
When our Queen passes, so does the monarchy.

Novantae
February 1, 2014 9:32 am

Go easy on him – he comes from a very dysfunctional family background. He’s really quite a pitiful creature.
Did you know he talks to plants?

G. Karst
February 1, 2014 9:34 am

Why do suppose Mum (Queen Elizabeth) is so reluctant to pass leadership over to her son? GK

troe
February 1, 2014 9:34 am

Scotland, Britain, or England this fellow makes a poor pitchman. On a brighter note one of our cable channels is running a retrospective on the “British Invasion” We are still in your debt for that.
An Anglophile

cnxtim
February 1, 2014 9:36 am

OSD,
AW said Britain did he not?, Where did you see England?
Still, if Scotland and maybe Wales make their decision to secede, there won’t be much of a Great Britain left, will there?
And, on the subject of Scotland, I feel confident in saying, if the theory AGW or GHG effect were to be tried in a Scottish court, the result would have to be the very sensible Scottish verdict ‘Not Proven’.
From Phillip’s POV Charles is carrying on his fathers tradition of ‘foot in mouth’ whilst his beleaguered mother remains aloof.
Headless chickens? The Madness of (NOT THE) King Charles.

Jeff
February 1, 2014 9:36 am

“REPLY:Changed. I can never figure out which is correct, England, United Kingdom, and Britain are essentially interchangeable terms in the American psyche, at least that’s my view of it – Anthony”
Hi Anthony. Don’t worry, even some native Brits getaren’t even aware. This may help:
United Kingdom = England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland
Britain (or Great Britain) = England, Scotland, Wales
As for Charlie boy, he’s universally known as a loony here lol

suissebob
February 1, 2014 9:40 am

As someone on BH pointed out, the klutz believes in homeopathy!

Ralph Kramden
February 1, 2014 9:40 am

Since the temperature rise has leveled off around 0.6 C I would think anyone could look at the “Impact of Climate Sensitivity” graph and see the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity must be less than 0.07. I have trouble understanding why some people find this so hard to see.

Vince Causey
February 1, 2014 9:41 am

I like the way this privileged and wealthy aristocrat, who lives in castles and is driven in expensive cars, lectures the hoi polloi to cut their energy consumption.
Actually I don’t like it. It’s about time we found another Lenin.

Lars P.
February 1, 2014 9:42 am

Projections and projections again, ” “the barrage of sheer intimidation” from powerful anti-climate change groups “ as mentioned in the telegraph article.
In what alternate universe does he live?
No wonder no reply is there possible.
And as the post says above:
“Perhaps there is a reason the Queen has held on so long.”
maybe “they” know something, as Jo nova said: “I’m not Monarchist or Republican, but if Charles keeps talking, that could change.”
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/02/prince-charles-says-we-should-have-more-blind-trust-in-science/
He should better not insult the people of the kingdom where he wants to be a king.
Or maybe this is the problem? he does not want to be that? Well, I guess even in such case he could find more elegant ways, but not insulting.
Insults are just prove of stupidity.

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