While Joe Bastardi forecasts a huricane within 72 hours…
http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/376796183806476288
…the clock is ticking on a satellite era record for the latest ever Atlantic hurricane formation.
Atlantic hurricane season – a record-breaking dud?
(Reuters) – The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which forecasters had predicted would be more active than normal, has turned out to be something of a dud so far as an unusual calm hangs over the tropics.
As the season heads into the historic peak for activity, it may even enter the record books as marking the quietest start to any Atlantic hurricane season in decades.
“It certainly looks like pretty much of a forecast bust,” said Jeff Masters, a hurricane expert and director of meteorology at the Weather Underground (www.wunderground.com).
“Virtually all the (forecast) groups were calling for above-normal hurricanes and intensive hurricanes and we haven’t even had a hurricane at all, with the season half over,” he said.
With records going back to 1851, Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the U.S. National Hurricane Center, said there had been only 17 years when the first Atlantic hurricane formed after September 4.
The all-time record was set in 1905, he said, when the first hurricane materialized on October 8.
In an average season the first hurricane shows up by August 10, usually followed by a second hurricane on August 28 and the first major hurricane by September 4.
Since the dawn of the satellite era in the mid-1960s, Feltgen said the latest date for the first hurricane to arrive was set by Gustav when it made its debut on September 11, 2002.
If this year’s first hurricane comes anytime after 8 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, it would replace Gustav as the modern-day record holder, Feltgen said.
Full story here:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/07/us-weather-hurricanes-idUSBRE9860AY20130907
If there were no satellites, even the one coming in the next 3 days would not have counted. Forecasters are also saying it will be another fish storm.
Isn’t that proof of CAGW?
Hurricane Humberto should develop just in time to tie the record, although it is forecast path will keep it way east in the Atlantic . Meanwhile, the arctic ice will soon begin it’s annual massive refreeze, fall will come to the northern hemipshere, and life will go on normally (we may even see a real hurricane or two!), much to the chagrin of the climate “scientists” and their sycophants…
also take into account that 3 of this years names storms were only at TS storm wind speeds for a few hours before dissipating
I’m betting on October 1, hurricane on the NC Outer Banks. Only because that’s the week we’ve scheduled for surf fishing.
@Bob Greene – that sure seems to attract them! 😉
We may not see a hurricane this year, but we are almost certain to have the full complement of tropical storms, given all it takes to put a mild disturbance in that class. It’s like a high school wrestler taking diuretics, emetics and laxatives to make weight. Consider the short life of Gabrielle — https://luysii.wordpress.com/2013/09/05/1606/
Speaking of hurricane records, it has (as of 9/9/2013) been 2877 days since the last landfall of a major (Cat 3 or higher) hurricane on the North American land mass. That was Hurricane Wilma on 24 OCT 05, almost 8 years ago.
Once again they prove it’s impossible to predict the future.
Bob Greene on September 9, 2013 at 7:39 am
I’m betting on October 1, hurricane on the NC Outer Banks. Only because that’s the week we’ve scheduled for surf fishing
—————–
I disagree. It will happen Oct 14….because that’s the week I’m heading to OBX for a fishing trip with my father-in-law and a big crew!
NHC shows a projection that it will be a Hurricane 2 am Wednesday, just missing the record.
However, they also show what I think is an unusual early move north.
Consequently, they Predict it to be back to Tropical Storm strength by Saturday.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/graphics/al09/AL092013_5W_003_A.GIF
So what we really should be tracking is cumulative Tropical Storm days and cumulative Hurricane days. We are on Tropical Storm #8 with Humberto, not an unusual number at this date in the year. Tropical Storm #7 (Gabrielle) lasted only 6 advisories (less than 1.5 days) and storm #8 didn’t even make it to Tropical Storm Status.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/
TS #6 FERNAND also lasted just 1.5 days and 6 advisories.
TS #5 ERIN went 16 advisories, 4 days.
TS #4 DORIAN went 18 advisories, 4.5 days.
TS #3 CHANTEL went 12 advisories, 3 days, July 7-10
TS #2 BERRY went 15 advisories, 4 days
TS #1 ANDREA went 12 advisories, 3 days. June 5-8.
Zero Hurricane days, so far, and maybe only 2 hurricane days by Sept 15.
How can we be up to ‘H’ already? There is some serious ‘name inflation’ going on here. Most of these ‘named’ storms would have been completely ignored if it wasn’t for the desire to get new records (and justify their ACE predictions). As Marcos posted above, some of these were strong enough to be ‘named’ for a few hours and way out in the Atlantic. It is all getting to be a bit of a scam.
Once again they make themselves look foolish. Soon, perhaps, they will look so foolish that people will ignore their statements and they will become irrelevant.
As long as we are writing about hurricane records, what is the recorded earliest date for the last hurricane, and what is the recorded latest date for the last hurricane during a year?
Has anyone informed Al Gore?
The CAGW hypothesis is failing. The Arctic ice has not noticed amplification this year. Antarctica is living in denial. Children do know what snow is. No acceleration in the rate of sea level rise and so on………… When will these con artists be taken to court for misappropriating public funds?
@Jimbo – “When will these con artists be taken to court for misappropriating public funds?”
We had a similar situation in this state (dealing with IT, not Climate). When it blew up in their face, they scrambled to cover it up. Why? Because Politicians have big egos, and the one thing they never seem to be able to do is admit they are wrong. So they will pour more money on the problem to prop it up instead of stepping back, admitting a bad decision was made, and move on.
In short the answer to your question is never. Because that would take an admission by politicians they were wrong. Something they will never do.
Score another one for the Gore Effect.
What can you expect when all the heat is hiding 2,000 feet below the surface of the oceans. It’s the warm surface temperature of the seas that creates the hurricanes, is it not? Just wait when all that hiding heat comes to the surface, and that will be the CAGW special… it will melt all the sea ice at the poles too – so be the dreams of the Hansens and the Manns.
Just out of curiosity…. Have the hurricane prediction people EVER predicted a ‘less active than normal’, or even a ‘normal’ hurricane season? If so, for what years? It seems to me that all I can ever recall are ‘more active than normal, or ‘very active’ hurricane seasons. I’m not trying to be a smart-ass, I am asking a question that many people may have thought about, but which I have never seen in my visits here.
Because a Gaussian distribution has extremes at both its high end and its low end, this can be considered a case of extreme weather and absolute proof of AGW.
It will probably be tough sell for alarmists; this just in: global warming extreme weather events lead to less hurricanes and greater safety, more at eleven.
Problem, meet Hurricane Category 0- winds from 0-74 mph.
Is it possible that all the hurricanes are 2000ft under water and we’re just not detecting them?
It might not become a hurricane in 72 hours. There is dry air nearby and it may be pulling some into the circulation. Check the water vapor image at http://www.aprsfl.net/satellite/index.php?product=GOESCATL&type=WV&animated=no
@noaaprogrammer 8:19 am
“Whis is…..”
With a blog name like yours, you are asking us?
You are both wrong. A hurricane will happen on October 1 and 14. That will be a nice excuse to climb the newly renovated Bodie Island lighthouse, which is no longer an island because of the shifting sand. It is always a pleasure to climb Cape Hatteras lighthouse.
@jim Jelinski at 8:23 am +1
Have the hurricane prediction people EVER predicted a ‘less active than normal’, or even a ‘normal’ hurricane season? If so, for what years?
A simple, direct question. Let’s see a simple table of what NOAA, or anyone speaking for NHC, Projected or Predicted about the upcoming hurricane activity. Say for 1989 to present.
Year, “text of prediction/projection”, source link.
Surely this must already be done for some Congressional Oversight Committee. Let’s just get the link. Surely [/sarc]
It isn’t just hurricanes,
did anyone else notice how absolutely wierd the weather has been this summer?
@Andrew at 8:30 am +1
Is it possible that all the hurricanes are 2000ft under water and we’re just not detecting them?
OMG! Hurricanes were sucked down Black Hole Whirlpools We’re Doomed! [/sarc – for forms sake]
Jimbo says:
September 9, 2013 at 8:19 am
“Has anyone . . .?”
While the hypothesis is failing it is unlikely anyone will be officially taken to court.
(Thomas) Robert Malthus – nope
long list here – nope
Console yourself with some fine music:
http://ultimateclassicrock.com/top-doomsday-songs/
Stephen Rasey says:
September 9, 2013 at 8:44 am
>>>Let’s see a simple table of what NOAA, or anyone speaking for NHC, Projected or Predicted about the upcoming hurricane activity. Say for 1989 to present.
Year, “text of prediction/projection”, source link.
Just what I was thinking. Complete with actual outcomes for an easy comparison. Can you imagine the adjustments that would go into that data series?
But, going back to the original question, I believe I have seen forecasts which gave a range for the prediction of hurricanes, and sometimes the range has spanned the historic mean. Nonetheless, it would be good for this kind of thing to be put out in systematic tabular form, enabling the press to do a quick check of past accuracy.
Wouldn’t elapsed time from the Summer solstice be a better indicator than the raw date?
Latest Hurricanes in Year:
2005, Dec. 7, EPSILON Born Nov 29, Hurr From Dec. 02-07
1984, Dec. 23, LILI, Born Dec. 12, Hurr from Dec. 20-23.
1954, Dec. 31, ALICE, Born Dec. 30, Hurr from Dec. 31-Jan. 04
have to go back to 1888 for another Dec. Hurricane.
All the forecasters forgot that it’s not an election year so a landfall hurricane before November on the North half of the East Coast isn’t necessary.
Either that, or it must be Mr. Bob Greenes’ NC Outer Banks surf fishing trip in October.
Those are the only 2 reasons that can possibly be. Even the very reputable William Gray didn’t get the forecast right.
Jimbo says:
September 9, 2013 at 8:19 am
…
When will these con artists be taken to court for misappropriating public funds?
No real con, mostly big egos and an excess of sincerity displacing proper intellectual honesty. Think of it as science in action. You need to remember that disconfirmative evidence is still evidence. It is quite clear that the models failed – ah – catastrophically. Even Jeff Masters of the Wunderground says so. In fact, by the time this has blown over, climatology will be far more conservative in its utterances than most sciences. It will still be some time before we really start to here ex-warmists asking, “well we know what doesn’t work, soo …. what does?” You also want to remember that in the sceptical free-for-all battle ground of climatology that there is no theory that clearly works either. There are “sun-ists,” “luke-warmists,” whatever the heck “-ist” it is that Principia Scientific advocates, etc. No one at all, anywhere, ever has published any coherent theory of climate that can be pointed at, and said of it, “a model based on this theory tracks climatological patterns perfectly barring secular noise in the system.” Give it some time.
Earliest First Hurricanes in Year. (Not counting 1955 ALICE carryover from 1954)
1970, May 20, ALMA. Born May 17, Hurricane for 0.5 days on May 20.
1951, May 17, ABLE, Born May 15, Hurricane May 17-23
1938, Jan 04, UNNAMED, First record Jan 1 (no Dec. 31, 1937 record), Hurricane 1 day, Jan 04.
1908, Mar 07, UNNAMED, first record Mar 6, Hurricane Mar 07-09.
Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/hurdat/hurdat2-atlantic-1851-2012-060513.txt
Excel: text to columns, put it into a pivot table (Row: Year, Columns(Month,Day), Count(Lat)
[Thank you. Mod]
Here is an Excel Line Chart image listing the Cumulative Hurricane Records in the NOAA HURDAT2, 1970-2012. X-Axis is Year.
Y-Axis is Number of 6hr HR Records (Divide by 4 to get Hurricane days.)
Four Series: Cumulative HR Records to Aug 31, Sept 30, Oct 31, Dec. 31.
http://i42.tinypic.com/dbh5s2.jpg
Thanks Stephen for the extrema on hurricane dates. It would be interesting to study the data on these hurricanes, but obviously some of the early dates preclude this.
It certainly looks like pretty much of a forecast bust,” said Jeff Masters
You can hear him clench his teeth as he said it.
jai mitchell says:
September 9, 2013 at 8:47 am
NO! Perfectly normal 1950-60-70 summer but idiots like you wouldn’t think of that now would you.
“With records going back to 1851, Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the U.S. National Hurricane Center, said there had been only 17 years when the first Atlantic hurricane CLOSE ENOUGH TO LAND THAT WE COULD SEE IT, SINCE WE DIDN’T HAVE SATELLITES FOR MOST OF THAT TIME formed after September 4.”
Fixed.
Pre-satellite days, no one know HOW MANY hurricanes occurred each year; they only know about the ones that struck land, or were reported by the ships that didn’t sink in them. If we didn’t have satellites, this year would be hurricane-less, since AFAIK all the tropical storms (that they pretended were hurricanes) formed and stayed out to sea.
Bob Greene and David L are both wrong since it will be October 6 when I will be at Myrtle Beach for a week of golf.
jai mitchell says:
September 9, 2013 at 8:47 am
It isn’t just hurricanes,
did anyone else notice how absolutely wierd the weather has been this summer?
_________________________
The only thing weird about the weather this summer is that it hasn’t neatly cooperated with the AGW missive.
As a former resident of New Orleans, with friends and relatives along the gulf coast down into the tip of Florida; one never breathes easy till the hurricane season is past. One hurricane is more than enough to make a bad hurricane season where it hits. I am plenty grateful for the lull.
“Forecasters are also saying it will be another fish storm.”
Think of the fry!
For jai mitchell (09 September 2013 at 8:47 AM):
Yep, it’s been ONE WIERD summer. My neck of the woods (Wyoming) almost always has ten-to-fifteen days in triple digits (not necessarily consecutive, just a lot of HOT HOT days). This summer, we hit the triples (on the Fahrenheit scale, mind you) just once, and that just barely.
Last summer, we didn’t hit triples at all — — must be all that “global warming” stuff I keep hearing about, and all that Arctic ice melting, and starving polar bears duking it out with Yellowstone’s griz population as they fight over the very few penguins who’ve had to flee all that Antarctic ice sheet melting and them thar risin’ sea levels all over God’s green Earth … … …
jai mitchell says:
September 9, 2013 at 8:47 am
It isn’t just hurricanes, did anyone else notice how absolutely wierd the weather has been this summer?
__________________________________________________________________________
Monsoon season still going on but the old timers in the area say they have seen this before. So that takes it out of the weird category.
How’s this for honest reporting?
http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/05/24/hurricane-season-is-going-to-be-bad-this-year-atlantic-canada-should-be-ready-canadian-centre-says/
Last sentence…
The Canadian Hurricane Centre says there is little correlation between the number of storms that form in the North Atlantic and the number that make their way into Canadian waters.
“…it may even enter the record books as marking the quietest start to any Atlantic hurricane season in decades.”
—
See, we warned you that global warming would cause extreme weather. Anything that breaks a record must be highly unusual and “extreme” by definition. Therefore, this record breaking, extremely quiet weather was brought to you by our sponsor: CO2.
/Sarc
All this talk about the “lateness” of the hurricane season makes me nervous for some reason. Maybe it’s because years ago my wife told me she was late, and she ended up spawning a little typhoon that did major damage to our peace and quiet. On the other hand, peace and quiet can be rather boring after a while.
Manmade Global Weather Change strikes again.
Houston Chronicle has a 43 photo story on the Cat 5 that hit Galvaston in 1900 on this week.
http://www.chron.com/neighborhood/bayarea/gallery/The-1900-Storm-in-Galveston-69849.php?cmpid=hpfc
Hurricane IKE was this week, too, five years ago.
Wow…it’s pretty clear that this is because of global warming…yep, we just misinterpreted it when we thought the season was going to be more active…global warming really made it more calm…because the underlying belief among many is that global warming is driving all weather…so whatever happens, it’s God’s will, I mean, Global warming…
Frank K. says:
September 9, 2013 at 7:31 am
“Hurricane Humberto should develop just in time to tie the record,”
—————————————————————————————————————————
Thanks for the wild guess Frank, now what numbers should I pick in the Loto?
From David L. on September 9, 2013 at 7:53 am:
I’ve seen several vehicles with OBX stickers here in central Pennsylvania, one pricey-looking house flies an OBX flag. But this started about when fake Euro-style 2- and 3-letter oval country-ID stickers (ex. GBR) on cars were semi-popular so I ignored it.
Later the other initials went away and that OBX flag went up. Since people think it’s cool to make words with less letters (ex. INXS), I thought it was like a parody, OBX meant OBnoXious.
Then I started seeing huge stick-on OBX see-through stickers on vehicles. Why splatter that OBX-in-an-oval across the entire SUV back window? I finally broke down and Googled what OBX really meant.
I was right, OBX really means the person is obnoxious.
=================================================================
Don’t worry about being bored. Given time, little typhoons often spawn little tornadoes. 😎
The problem with convincing people there’s no CAGW is that proof and logic don’t apply. Here’s an interview with a fashion designer from Details magazine:
HOW TO DRESS FOR GLOBAL WARMING
“It sounds simplistic, but because of the weather we are experiencing—it’s so unpredictable now—the secret is in the layering. In my most recent show, I presented quilted vests, not too heavy, to wear under a coat. If it’s not too cold, go out with just a herringbone sweater or wear a vest on top of it.”
See, if you go out with wearing layers and have to remove one as the day wears on, it’s clearly that global warming thing!
I would not be spiking the ball so early. I have explained in the weatherbell.com premium site that the global downturn of the ace is related to a drying mid and upper troposphere, precisely where the IPCC and EPA have claimed it would do the opposite, leading to trapping hot spots and of course the mega activity. But the atlantic now is showing the same tendencies that other areas have. That being said, the fact is the onus is still on the atlantic basin in the warm amo to produce. The other major factor is the cooling of the Indian ocean, to levels we have not seen in many years. This disrupts the normal monsoonal circulation and affects the waves that can progress into Africa. It also will have an effect on the MJO, which is why we may have seen it stuck so long in phase 1. However even though this is cool, its still now warm enough to produce bigger waves and that is why Humberto is well on its way to being a hurricane. Building pressures in the coming weeks over the north atlantic, combined with a warm amo, and the cooling of Mexico and central America, is likely to force a shift eastward of genesis areas from out of the southeast Pacfic into the Gulf, Caribbean and southwest Atlantic. One can look at a week ago and now as far as the convection in the Atlantic basin and see this happening.
I knew going into the season we would have to fight some dry air.. but the cool Indian ocean really surprised me. That is something I did not think we would see for several years. But then again if we look at the cold pdo, warm amo years of the 1950s and the major hits on the east coast, there were not years loaded with many storms. NHC will get their 16 storms this year, they are well on their way. But certainly one can see the natural oscillations in global patterns that has lead to the GLOBAL downturn evident in the ACE index is occurring, counter to the doom and gloom forecasts from several years ago.
What is amusing is that people are screaming about the Atlantic, but failed to realize the rest of the tropics had gone into a relative funk for several years. If it makes people aware of the fallacy of the trapping hot spot theory, then its a good thing ( along with the fact that no one gets damage to their place)
Now to people on my side of the issue: Please dont spike the ball at hafltime. Lili and Isadore in 2002 came late after a very slow start and we were saved by Isadores shadow cooling water in front of Lili. Both storms reached scary cat 4 levels in the gulf after sept 20 and that is about as extreme as you can get. The fact is that a series of a double or triple impact will get the same people screaming about what a dud this is now, to yelling this is climate change. So lets understand that the lid that has been on, is likely to pop off, as there are physical reasons that argue for it.
Funny, at mid winter, there was alot of people saying what a dud winter was. Of course it stayed that way for some, but for others they were waving a white flag of surrender before it was over
Fernand, which was only a “tropical storm” for a short time, dumped enough rain to cause mudslides, and several deaths. A weather event doesn’t have to be unusually powerful to be dangerous/deadly! Just sayin’…
High pressure over the Central US will shield this storm from upper level wind shear for a few days. Once it moves eastward and the dry air returns with the shear once that happens I dont think it will survive long.
The NHC forecast discussions are always a good place to go:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/100846.shtml
This just in:
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013
HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE ASSOCIATED BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND THE CENTER…INDICATING THAT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER THE CYCLONE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH T3.5 AND UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES ARE ABOUT
THE SAME. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES…THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
INCREASED TO 55 KT.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT…AND THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/8. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TODAY…FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST STORM MOTION IS DUE TO A BREAK DOWN
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE CAUSED BY A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
ANOTHER LOW BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE AZORES. A SHARP
WESTWARD TURN IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 4 DAYS WHEN THE RIDGE
BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
GIVEN THE PRONOUNCED HEADING CHANGES…AND THE LATEST OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.
THE INTENSIFICATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 36
HOURS WHILE HUMBERTO REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW WIND SHEAR AND HIGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. AFTER
THAT TIME…THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR AND SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING HUMBERTO. THESE UNFAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH COOLER SSTS SHOULD CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO BEGIN WEAKENING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT
TERM AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 14.4N 26.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 15.0N 27.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 16.2N 28.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 17.9N 28.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 20.0N 29.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 23.7N 30.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 25.5N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 26.0N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
So Humberto is almost certainly going to nip up to Cat 1 before the 2002 ‘record’, but will be struggling against dry air and wind shear in a few days’ time. It’s possible that it won’t max out at the levels forecast but something very odd would have to happen to prevent it being the first hurricane of the Atlantic season.
Gabrielle has also regenerated as a TS, but there’s no great amount of rotation in the satellite images. It looks like it may get caught up in the westerlies sooner than forecast and zip up north before it gets very long over warm waters. May get a bit breezy around Newfoundland as an extratropical storm, but no landfalling hurricane, that’s for sure.
Talking of which, I think I’ll have a quick dig around for the latest first landfalling Atlantic hurricane to form in the satellite era…
Isadore formed as a hurricane on the 19th Sep 2002 and made landfall on the 20th in Cuba. (Gustav didn’t make landfall as a hurricane). Can anyone else find a later first hurricane landfall?
As long as the ITCZ remains far South the Atlantic will be calmer than usual,
There was a curious “Freudian slip” by a weatherperson on the local news this morning. He was talking about the named tropical storms heading up the coast and said the latest one could become a hurricane later today or this week. He then made a very curious comment with a real tone of disappointment yet anticipatory excitement about the lack of hurricanes to the effect of “this tropical storm could become a hurricane later today or this week for which we waited a long time [darn it]!!!” The tone was really odd and he kind of “caught himself” at the disappointment and frustration in his voice that we waited oh so long for some hurricane activity and it just hasn’t happened. How disappointing. How perverse.
I myself and loving the fact there haven’t been any hurricanes to threaten lives and property on the east coast. But this guy is crying in his milk about it.
Most often, lack of N Atlantic tropical activity means a dry Sept/Oct here in the mid-Appalachians.
OMG
Looking at the latest fulldisk image l don’t think Humberto will make to hurricane status.
lt looks to me that the storm is about to split and so be weaker then forecast. Also with a lot of cloud cover been fed off on its southern side plus a large bank of cloud and rain to its NE. ls likely to be draining a lot of its energy from here on.
lf am right about this, then l still think there is a real chance of a hurricane free season this year.
Sorry should have been “lts” not “ls”.
NHC has a 50% probability Humberto becomes a Hurricane in the next 6 hrs.
80% probability of Hurricane by 00:00 Thursday 9/12, with 20% chance of Cat 2.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT4+shtml/101434.shtml?
It’s almost 10PM here on the East Coast and some MSM newswires are still reporting that TS Humberto is strengthening and poised to become a hurricane tonight, in reality it is not strengthening. (Just search for “Humberto” on Google News)
Cooler water and dry air north of the storm are sapping its water content. So will probably not reach hurricane status by tomorrow, thus setting a modern record for the latest start date for a hurricane since WWII.
See this yourself, using the Univ of Wisconsin CIMSS (Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies) website has an interactive interface to tropical cyclones which allow you to select a variety of satellite views with overlays of winds, temperatures and other storm related data.
To see Humberto click on the following URL and then turn on the “IR/VW Diff” (infrared/water vapor difference) view, and animate with the button on the left. The bright yellow and red areas representing the heaviest concentrations of water vapor are thinning out, and some of the rotation has already started to convert back into a tropical wave. Make sure ‘TRK’ ‘FORECAST’ and ‘Vort” buttons are turned on to see the storm’s predicted path and vorticity.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=09L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000
Wind speed is 70 MPH gusting but not sustained.
Looks like dry air is penetrating the uptake and mid level wind-shear is increasing.
This is already starting to raise the pressures and should begin to dismantle the organization. Hurricane Prediction center has lowered the probability of it becoming a hurricane to 10%. Looking like a new record is in the making.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/110852.shtml
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013
…HUMBERTO BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC…
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.0N 28.9W
ABOUT 310 MI…500 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 28.9 WEST. HUMBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/H. THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…120
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HUMBERTO COULD STRENGTHEN MORE TODAY
BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND LIKELY STARTS ON THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES…185 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB…29.29 INCHES.
Very convenient …. “Humberto was declared a Category 1 storm in a 5 a.m. advisory from the U.S. National Hurricane Center, missing the record for tardiest first hurricane by three hours. Since 1967, when satellites have had the ability to watch the Atlantic continuously, the latest such a powerful storm formed was 8 a.m. on Sept. 11, 2002, according to Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the center”.
Im pretty sure that were gona learn that they lowered there standard just so we wouldnt break the record. Still, they prediction was a really busy season and once again its a big flop.
Let’s call it a statistical tie. If one were to be really picky, as Richard M mentioned, the metric for latest date should probably be “hours after summer solstice”. By this metric Humberto probably beats Gustav (2002):
Summer Soltice Date/Time (GMT)
2002 June 21 13:24
2013 June 21 05:04
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/jun/21/summer-solstice-data
RE: Advisory #11 (Ric at 6:22am)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH
An interesting included word “NEAR”
They rounded up?
Love that “near” term… How very convenient and non-scientific off them…
Give the NHC a break – they’re deciphering satellite photos to come up with those estimates. Also, I posted the advisory. The discussion is a bit more rigorous:
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013
CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE WITH HUMBERTO DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS…WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE
CYCLONE ALSO BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 6Z
SUPPORTED ANYTHING FROM 55-65 KT…AND GIVEN THE NOTABLE
STRENGTHENING OF THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND OVERALL INCREASE
IN ORGANIZATION…THE INITIAL WINDS ARE RAISED TO 65 KT.
A cat 1 hurricane has winds 65 to 83 knots. The estimates for these storms near Africa are a bit challenging. Once the storm gets within range of the hurricane hunter planes then they can get more accurate estimates (and they’re still estimates – the near sea surface isn’t sampled except in a few points that may miss the eyewall).
NHC Wind Probs are 60% Cat1+ in 24 hrs dropping to 28% in 36 Hrs (8 am Friday AST)
2002 Gustave holds the record for latest first hurriane.
What’s more Gustave only lasted as a hurricane for 24 hrs.
2013 HUMBERTO will chalk up at least 36 hours.
2002 didn’t start racking up additional hurricane days until Sept 19 with ISIDORE.
So 2002 is likely to own the lowest Hurricane Activity Year for at least another another week, even if 2013 doesn’t spawn another hurricane until Sept 21.
NHC shows Humberto [barely] a hurricane at 05:00 AST Friday 9/13 and 55 kts at 11:00 AST. Hurricane probs are low out for 4 days but grow to 41% 12:00Z Wed.
So Humberto was a hurricane from 0500 AST Wed to about 0700 AST Friday. 9 six hour records. 2.25 hurricane days. So 2002 still holds the record for fewest hurricane days by 1.25 days. 2002 didn’t exceed 2.25 hurricane days until Sept 20.
TS INGRID Wind Probs for Hurricane are 28-36% for 00:00Z Sun to 00:00Z Mon, even though the 5 day track has two points marked for “H”. Hurricane watch?
In the “That was Fast” Department
INGRID reached hurricane status about 16:00 CDT Saturday, 22:00Z Sunday. Probability of Hurricane is greater than 50% for 48 hours.
TS HUMBERTO may not be going away. NHC list a 40% prob of return to hurricane on Thursday.
Charts of Cumulative Hurricane Days by Year and Date.
Source
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/hurdat/hurdat2-atlantic-1851-2012-060513.txt
Downloaded 130902
Filtered down to records with time periods 0000, 0600, 1200, 1800.
And Wind Speed >= 65 and “HU, EX, or SS” label.
All years 1970-2012
http://i39.tinypic.com/24wg2gy.jpg
All years 1970-2012 with Series in Percentiles
http://i41.tinypic.com/209g76r.jpg
Same chart but showing only those years where Cumulative Hurricane days by Sept 15 is less than 10. I estimate we currently have about 5 Hurricane days in 2013.
http://i39.tinypic.com/2lu9opi.jpg
The highest cumulative number of hurricane days in this set is only 19 and the median is about 10.
Scatter chart of Total Hurricane Days at End of Year vs Cumulative Hurricane Days at Sept 15.
http://i40.tinypic.com/35n82hh.jpg
It is odd that no matter how active the season has been to date, the number of additional Hurricane days in the year is limited to about 20.
The previous scatter plot was Total Days vs Cumulative Days to Sept 15. Naturally, the cumulative days current correlates to the Total Days.
This scatter plot shows Future Hurricane Days (Total at end of Year – Cumulative to 9/15) vs Cumulative to 9/15.
http://i42.tinypic.com/29bfqiq.jpg
There is a very weak positive correlation.
The least squares fit formula is:
Add’l Hurr. Days = 0.32 * ( Cum Hurr. Days) + 5.6
The R^2 = 0.18, virtually non-existent.
So the results half way into the hurricane season tells you next to nothing about the activity level for the last half of the season.
However, the NHC’s prediction for an above average hurricane season is off to a very bad start. It is very unlikely to reach even a median level activity for the total year.
Thank you for the updates.
It’s (just barely) Sept 16 east coast time. What is the current status of G and H?
INGRID dropped to Tropical Storm status as it make landfall near La Pesca, MX. at 07:00 CST (12:00 Z) Monday. They do not expect it to regain hurricane status.
INGRID was a hurricane from 16:00 CDT Saturday to 07:00 CDT Monday, about 39 hours. about 1.75 days.
Add that to HUMBERTO’s 2.25 days and 2013 has a total of 4 Hurricane Days as of Sept 16.
1970, 1973, 1977, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1987, 1992, 1994, 2002 (10 of 43) had 5 or fewer Hurricane Days to Sept 16.
1984 ended its year with the highest: 18.25
NHC shows HUMBERTO with an 90% chance of regaining tropical storm status within 5 days and gives it about 40% chance of getting back to Hurricance strength by Friday, Sept 20.
HUMBERTO back to Tropical Storm at 1500 Z Mon Sept 16.
NHC still showing about 42% chance of Hurricane on Friday.
NHC Outlook 9/20 14:00 EDT
Nothing in the Atlantic and GOM with a high probability of Tropical Storm in the next 5 days.
7 hours to the Autumnal Equinox.
NHC lists “No Tropical Cyclones at this time.”
http://i42.tinypic.com/2hq71b8.jpg
Not even areas of low pressure that have a 10% chance of formation.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.
I don’t know how unusual this is for late Septembrer, but:
at Sept 24, 2013 05:00 UTC
There are No Tropical Cyclone activity (including lows with potential to form cyclones) for
Atlantic
Eastern Pacific
Central Pacific
A clean slate.
Accuweather shows one Class 1 Typhoon PABUK SE of Japan in the Western Pacific.