Snowjobs are just a thing of the past…er, present

Snow Job

Snow Job (Photo credit: drp)

While we have a major winter snowstorm barreling through the USA Midwest, we know that the usual suspects will jostle for position to tell the media that this is just another signature of global warming climate change climate disruption extreme weather caused by global warming. But these sorts of claims, like the claims made by AP’s Seth Borenstein about the recent Northeast blizzard, are nothing more than desperate spin, and it is easy to prove by looking at similar claims of the past. Thanks to email from”Haunting the Library” for the primer, which I’ve built upon.

First, the obligatory Dr. David Viner quote:

Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

Next, let’s refresh our memory on what Mark Lynas told us about cold winters in 2004:

. . . snow has become so rare that when it does fall – often just for a few hours – everything grinds to a halt. In early 2003 a ‘mighty’ five-centimetre snowfall in southeast England caused such severe traffic jams that many motorists had to stay in their cars overnight. Today’s kids are missing out . . .

Many of these changes are already underway, but have been accelerating over the last two decades. Termites have already moved into southern England. Garden centres are beginning to stock exotic sub-tropical species, which only a few years ago would have been killed off by winter.

Mark Lynas, High Tide: The Truth About Our Climate Crisis

And of course, there’s The Independent‘s fatuous warning over lack of snow in winter and what it portends, no not the David Viner one, it is another separate article from December 2006. This somber editorial admonished us that the lack of snow was evidence of a “dangerous seasonal disorder” -

The countryside is looking rather peculiar this winter. It seems we have a number of unexpected guests for Christmas. Dragonflies, bumblebees and red admiral butterflies, which would normally be killed off by the frost, can still be seen in some parts of the country . . .

Some might be tempted to welcome this late blossoming of the natural world as a delightful diversion from the bleakness of this time of year. But these fluctuations should be cause for concern because it is overwhelmingly likely that they are a consequence of global warming

. . . all this is also evidence that global warming is occurring at a faster rate than many imagined. And it will not only be the natural world adversely effected by climate change.

The Independent Leading Article: A Dangerous Seasonal Disorder.

Finally, courtesy of the awesome long memory and extensive archive of blogger Alexjc38, we have the strictly impartial and scientific BBC and their “One Planet” program from early 2007. In a “One Planet Special” entitled with ominous finality “It Seems the Winters of Our Youth are Unlikely to Return” presenter Richard Hollingham thinks backs to the snowy winters of his youth and asks whether the run of mild winters was caused by global warming. He also speaks to climate scientists to get their views. Their conclusion? In the words of the BBC, they all give “predictions of warmer winters, for UK & [the] Northern Hemisphere”.

He speaks to people in Russia, China, and the UK who all reminisce about snowy winters in their youth and wring their hands over the present snow-less and mild winters (do you think they’re still doing that?). Finally, he turns to Brenda Ekwurzel who introduces herself as “the climate scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists”. Wow. “The” Climate Scientist, huh? Okay, so Hollingham puts the question to her:

Richard Hollingham: Now those of us who grew up with very cold winters, who tell our children that winter’s not what it used to be, we’re right, aren’t we?

Brenda Ekwurzel: Yes, absolutely. It has changed.

Summing up, Hollingham reviews the evidence of the people he’s interviewed, and the testimony of the climate scientists he spoke to and gives his opinion as presenter of the BBC’s One Planet on the outlook for winter under global warming:

Sitting here at the BBC, leafing through my old photos, I can’t help feeling nostalgic for proper winters. This year we had just one day of snow in southern Britain. Mind you, it still brought the roads, railways and airports to a standstill, and shut the schools. But as most people in London, Moscow, Washington, Beijing or Oslo will testify, a cold, crisp winter’s day with snow on the ground is infinitely preferable to the mild, damp miserable winters many of us are having to get used to. And it seems the winters of our youth are unlikely to return.

From the Western Mail (Wales Online) from 2007.

The article, entitled “Snowless Winters Forecast for Wales as World Warms Up” quotes one of the global warming movement’s key figures, Sir John Houghton, former head of the IPCC and former head of the UK Met Office:

Former head of the Met Office Sir John Houghton, who is one of the UK’s leading authorities on climate change, said all the indicators suggest snowy winters will become increasingly rare

He said, “Snowlines are going up in altitude all over the world. The idea that we will get less snow is absolutely in line with what we expect from global warming.”

Wales Online: Snowless Winters Forecast for Wales as World Warms Up

But just three years later January 8, 2010, we have this:

All of Britain covered by snow

No it’s not a time warp photo of Dicken’s time, it’s from the NASA MODIS satellite imager this week. This is like one of those “spot the cow in this photo” images, looking for the UK in a sea of white.

While the UK was snow-covered,  there’s this one from February 2010:

Climate change blamed for Olympic snow shortage

Winter snow season has been slowly shrinking in past 50 years, says researcher

Research gathered over a 50-year period showed that the snow season in winters in B.C. are getting shorter by between four and five weeks, with warmer temperatures overall, Bruce said.

And next winter, it happened again, no not the shortage of snow …

UK Covered in snow, for the second winter

WUWT readers may recall this post from last year on January 8th, 2010 All of Britain covered by snow Along with a stunning satellite image. Well, it has happened again, much earlier this year.  See the newest satellite image below.

So with massive snows, now what are they saying? George Monbiot provides the window into the mind of the vapid vortex of anything for the cause:

Monbiot_snow_AGW

And more recently:

Heaviest Snowfall in a Century Hits Moscow

The WWF in Russia blames the exceptional winter weather on global warming: 

Whether or not Blinkin is right about the tires, City Hall would be well-advised to give the massive snowfall some serious thought. Scientists say such extreme weather is only likely to increase.

“The weather we’ve seen in the past couple of days completely fits with the tendency that was identified a couple of years ago, that we are going to to see much stronger, intensive bursts of precipitation in the future,” said Alexei Kokorin, director of the climate and energy program at WWF Russia. “In the summer, we will probably see stronger bursts of rain.”

So, when the inevitable claims in current news stories start again today and tomorrow about the midwest blizzard being global warming climate change climate disruption extreme weather caused by global warming, you’ll have a window into the game plan.

Except, there’s no science to support such claims, as we learned last time a major blizzard went through the midwest, the Ground Hog Day blizzard.

What might be the real cause of these large snow events? NASA says it isn’t “global warming”:

2010 Snowmageddon explained, sans global warming/climate change

This is a satellite image of one of the massive “Snowmaggedon” blizzard systems in February 2010. Notice the distinctive comma-shaped cloud pattern. Credit: NASA/GSFC

The 2010 Snowmageddon event was quickly seized upon in an NYT op-ed by global warming zealot Al Gore as yet more proof of…climate…warming…mumble.. something.

Yet in this NASA article highlighting a new peer reviewed paper, global warming/climate change isn’t even mentioned.

“There are things that we know that affect storminess over the U.S.,” Schubert said. “One is when there is an El Niño, which tends to favor more storms. Given the connection between El Niño and sea surface temperatures, we thought we’d actually do a modeling study to see if we could pinpoint the role of sea surface temperatures in driving the snowstorms.”

“This model not only confirms that a negative North Atlantic Oscillation and El Niño conditions created the conditions that allowed these storms to form,” said Seager, who did not work with Schubert on this research. “But it is useful in showing how the atmosphere can act differently when combining El Niño with different sea surface temperatures. These models provide controlled conditions, which allow us to be sure about the exact causes,” Seager added.

And recently, the ENSO link was highlighted again:

New paper from NOAA demonstrates that El Niño has more impacts than climate on winter weather in the USA

A new study, just published in the February issue of the Journal of Climate, describes an atmospheric El Niño signal that is very strongly associated with U.S. winter weather impacts. Ed Harrison, Ph.D. of the NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle and Andrew Chiodi, Ph.D., of the NOAA Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean at the University of Washington, co-authored the paper.

Abstract:

This study shows that, since 1979 when outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) observations became reliably available, most of the useful U.S. seasonal weather impact of El Niño events is associated with the few events identified by the behavior of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over the eastern equatorial Pacific (“OLR–El Niño events”). These events produce composite seasonal regional weather anomalies that are 95% statistically significant and robust (associated with almost all events). Results also show that there are very few statistically significant seasonal weather anomalies, even at the 80% level, associated with the non-OLR–El Niño events. A major enhancement of statistical seasonal forecasting skill over the contiguous United States appears possible by incorporating these results. It is essential to respect that not all events commonly labeled as El Niño events lead to statistically useful U.S. seasonal forecast skill.

So much for AGW driving winter weather. In California’s Sierra Nevada, which is highly affected by ENSO events, there is no trend:

Christy on Sierra Snowfall over the last 130 years – no trend, no effect from CO2

Weather. is. not. climate.

And finally, Michael Tobis STILL has bupkis

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36 thoughts on “Snowjobs are just a thing of the past…er, present

  1. According to her bio Brenda is:

    “Brenda Ekwurzel works on the national climate program at the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). She is leading UCS’s climate science education work aimed at strengthening support for strong federal climate legislation and sound U.S. climate policies.
    Prior to joining UCS, Dr. Ekwurzel was on the faculty of the University of Arizona Department of Hydrology and Water Resources with a joint appointment in the Geosciences Department. Her specialty is isotope geochemistry, a tool she has used to study climate variability in places as disparate as the Arctic Ocean and the desert Southwest. She has published on topics that include climate variability and fire, isotopic dating of groundwater, Arctic Ocean tracer oceanography, paleohydrology, and coastal sediment erosion. She has also worked as a hydrologist with the Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection, working with communities to protect groundwater sources.
    Dr. Ekwurzel completed her doctorate work at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University and post-doctoral research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California.”

    It seems one can be the expert climate scientist by self proclamation and work in related fields, rather than say post graduate degree in atmospheric physics. . At least it is better than paleonotologists that Australia has, though

  2. I can see a new expression coming into vogue based on Mark Twain’s famous quote.

    If you don’t like the climate in New England, just wait a few minutes.

  3. Thanks, Mr. Watts and “Haunting The Library” for this compendium. It’s so nice to have all those deliciously stupid quotes collected in one place.

  4. Thank you! We all know this stuff of courrse, at least the braod strokes, but to see it laid out in such detail represents a devastating indictment. Calling MSM! Come in MSM!

  5. Monbiot describes the return of colder winters, predicted to never return, as “unusual”.
    Our long history of undulating warm and cold cycles makes “usual” the more appropriate characterization.
    I suppose when circular reasoning has you are chasing your tail, it shortens your perspective.

  6. It truly is the perfect racket: everytime the weather changes blame it on man and demand more research money or a new tax. This could only happen in a society that has become so wealthy that its citizens feel guilty about it. Well, those who are just along for the ride feel guilty, those who worked their butts off don’t.

  7. This is great, but I think it should be up permanently, on the right hand side of this website. It graphically shows how ignorant they are, and that they want the reader to have a short memory. Monbiot is stark raving, but he does make you laugh. I mean, could there be a bigger arse (or ass, as you say over there). Over here, he’s just had to make a grovelling apology to Lord McAlpine – god, it was so funny to read.

  8. While we have a major winter snowstorm barreling through the USA Midwest, …

    So howcome storms that hit the Northeast get names while those in the heartland don’t? Is NOAA showing a regional bias? I’m feeling slighted.

    /sarc

  9. Well, they’ve covered mild, snowless winters as exactly the thing to expect under global warming. They’ve covered freezing winters deluged by snow as the result of a warming world. All that’s left is a normal winter.

    Yes, that sort of winter – average temperatures for the time of year, some snow that lies around for a week and then thaws, followed by maybe some more snow – this is exactly what we would expect from a warming world. Look at the unprecedented normalness brethren – and be very afraid.

  10. The woman who George Monbiot, quotes is just the beginning, it just dawned on me why the Chinese built all those extra cities.
    Like Maurice Strong, the team and their useful idiots, will need refuge.
    For a small fee.. of course.
    I have always admired the way the Chinese take the long view.

  11. One of the problems of subjective weather memory is that unless you are older than about 55, you can’t see the repeating PDO, AMO patterns. Also, there is a tendency to ascribe what you see at home to the planet as a whole. I still remember what my dad would tell me (he was an engineer, but was very interested in weather from his service in the Air Force, as well as an information sponge) when I asked him if ti was going to be a snowy winter and get me out of school ofter. “The jet stream is the key.” He explained how a western placed or midwestern placed jet stream would steer storms to our west (I was in New Jersey) leaving us in the warm sector. Just right would yield the snow producing coastal storms, and too far east would give us clear and cold with occasional dustings. Lastly, he said it goes in a pattern, with some areas connected and some opposite. All driven by the Pacific. He had studied Pacific weather intently since he was responsible for getting his plane back on its 3000 mile round trip at jet stream level.
    The very beginning of the new century was the waning time of positive PDO. Now negative. Less Ninos. Moved jet stream. Eureka! Look out in the east in 10 years when the AMO goes negative also, it will be the 1960s again. Some of us remember, sadly most of these people who are saying these outrageous things do not.

  12. Yes, I heard it this a.m. on the shuttle ride from my mechanics garage. The good old Canadian CBC announcer stated the we should stay tuned for a “WEATHER STATEMENT”, that’s correct you heard it here first a “WEATHER STATEMENT”. That’s right you to will be hearing your MSM announcer making “WEATHER STATEMENTS” NOT “weather reports”, ooooh sounds scary. The very mature driver of the shuttle gave a hoot and stated he couldn’t believe his ears.

    P.S. someone should tel Joe Bastardi to get with the latest climatology jargon.

  13. The Brahan (sp?) Seer predicted that “In the year of the three Queens, there will be no winter”.
    In the winter of 1951/2, when the present British Monarch, her mother and grandmother were all alive, we had a blackbird sitting on eggs in the middle of December in SW Scotland, and the rest of the winter was equally mild. (The clutch didn’t hatch, a Carrion Crow got them.)
    I wonder if he had anything to say about the predictions of the Mann Seer et al.

  14. I just finished plowing out around 5 inches of snow from my driveway and all the walkways. Also had to plow some paths for water to run off while we’re gone and rake some big drifts off the roof. In other news, Tucson, where we had a reunion last October, had accumlating snow on the ground a couple of days ago.

  15. Warmists positions change with the climate weather.

    Talking of the flip flopper George Monbiot here he is teaching us sceptics a thing or two about the weather.

    EXHIBIT 1 (almost exactly 8 years ago)

    Monbiot.com – February 15, 2005
    Everything in this country – daffodils, primroses, almond trees, bumblebees, nesting birds – is a month ahead of schedule. And it feels wonderful. Winter is no longer the great grey longing of my childhood. The freezes this country suffered in 1982 and 1963 are – unless the Gulf Stream stops – unlikely to recur. Our summers will be long and warm. Across most of the upper northern hemisphere, climate change, so far, has been kind to us.

    http://www.monbiot.com/2005/02/15/mocking-our-dreams/

    EXHIBIT 2 (5 years later)

    Guardian -6 January 2010 – George Monbiot & Leo Hickman
    Britain’s cold snap does not prove climate science wrong

    Climate sceptics are failing to understand the most basic meteorology – that weather is not the same as climate, and single events are not the same as trends……………..

    ……Now we are being asked to commit ourselves to the wilful stupidity of extrapolating a long-term trend from a single event……”

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/06/cold-snap-climate-sceptics

  16. They had to set back the estimated date for the cherry bloom in Japan for this year because of the cold winter. Tokyo had snow. Several times. Even in February. In Austria it keeps snowing as well. It’s almost March and Vienna just had snowfall today.

  17. in 2006 the Arbor Day Foundation made changes to its hardiness maps that “reflect a warmer climate.”

    http://www.arborday.org/media/map_change.cfm

    Translation, they claimed that in many places you could plant trees that wouldn’t survive the cold from prior to “global warming”.

    I wonder how many trees they have killed the past 7 years due to people planting trees that the Arbor Day foundation claimed could grow in northern states that have seen some of the Coldest Winters in decades???

  18. { Wichita, Kansas, saw its second-highest storm snowfall total on record with 14.2 inches over two days, the National Weather Service said. }

    Record of 15″ set in 1962. I was younger then, shoveling didn’t bother me as much. We would have broken the record if it had been warmer.
    /sarc

  19. An in recent UK news, that thing of the past, that warm fluffy stuff is a sure sign of milder UK winters (that is what we were promised by the IPCC).

    Daily Mail – 22 February 2013
    “It’s so cold even the statues in Trafalgar Square are freezing: Forecasters say temperatures won’t rise until WEDNESDAY
    ………Icicles, some a foot long, hang off the fountains in Trafalgar Square in central London.”

    Guardian – Thursday 21 February
    “According to a weather expert, the temperatures are much colder than normal for this time of year, when we should expect averages of about six to eight degrees. “It’s certainly going to feel much colder today and over the weekend,….”

    While parts of the US gets hammered by snow and freezing temperatures.
    When will these U-turns end? Or are they going round in circles?

    The take home lesson was and is:
    Lack of snow = blame global warming.
    Mild winter = blame global warming
    Heavy snow = blame climate change or brazenly global warming
    Average winter = climate disruption, climate change or global warming

    It’s a potpuri kinda thing.

  20. What exactly does George Monbiot believe is the sign of climate change in the UK. He seems to hold all positions.

    Guardian – George Monbiot – 9 January 2009
    “I have spent the last two evenings skating. Last night we laid lanterns out across the ice and swooped and swung and fell flat on our faces on this silent lake in mid-Wales, for hours by moonlight……”

    …..all of us knew that this time might be our last. It is many winters since most of the lakes in England and Wales have frozen hard enough to support a skating party; with every year the chances of another one recede.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jan/09/climatechange-weather

    Fast forward.

    Daily Mail – 9 January 2010
    So cold even the Lakes froze over: Derwentwater turns to ice for first time in 10 years

    24dash.com – 8th January 2010
    Coldest British winter for 30 years ‘to get worse’

    A word to George Monbiot: when you are in a hole, stop digging.

  21. There you go again, trying to inject scientific facts into the relativist philosophy of Climate Science. When will you learn that’s not allowed as it might disrupt the politicking?

  22. Snowfall is a function of processes in the dendritic zone.

    http://lukemweather.blogspot.com/2010/12/finallyhow-do-we-calculate-snow-ratios.html

    As for more snow in the polar regions – I don’t see how. These areas are very dry because the polar areas are mostly high pressure zones. The descending air is very dry in the summer and in the winter the polar vortex makes the air very cold and stagnant.

    I think a better approach would be to take the MRF model and adjust the boundary conditions using SSTs. Ie, a warmer ocean or a colder ocean. I would like to see what the MRF showed if the GIUK gap was all ice.

  23. When it comes to what their models predict, the Alarmists are like a teenage girl getting ready for a party — try this on, no, doesn’t fit, discard, go for something completely opposite, and on and on until everything in the wardrobe has been tried.

    No wonder everyone else gets fed up.

  24. “I realize this link does not talk much about some record snow levels but it does show that Germany is getting colder than average winter temperature for the fifth year in a row!
    Meteorologist Dominik Jung Turns Skeptical After Germany Sets Record 5 Consecutive Colder-Than-Normal Winters!”

    Then Mr.Jung can expect that his voice will not anymore appear in media. Here in Portugal some once mediatic scientists that said they didn’t believe in AGW disappeared from media…just like a turned off click.

  25. I remember a group of ex climate scientists turned electronics computer modellers showing me in the nineties how they had done a Fourier analysis on the climate data and shown that the patterns showed no significant deviation from a normal peaking of multiple cycles always present from any time in the known data set. I fed this same data into one of our programs intended originally for searching for hidden patterns in apparently random data for interception equipment.
    This more than backed up their claims.
    Hindsight shows the cycles to be just as engineering work suggested rather than the claims of climate scientists, but still we have neither an apology from them or even an admission that climate science is junk as should be clear to all by now.
    We still are not able to get any publicity here for the fact that the BBC are lobby driven to oversell climate change positively so i hold out no hope that facts will determine anything whatever compared to powerful lobbying by the Eco groups.

  26. By adapting this old children’s song I think I can sum it all up.

    Whether the weather be fine,
    Or whether the weather be not,
    Whether the weather be cold,
    Or whether the weather be hot,
    We’ll make the weather
    Whatever the weather,
    Be caused by CO2
    Whether you like it or not!

    James Bull

  27. You forgot the BBCs great “Climate Change Experiment”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/theuk.shtml

    “In the BBC One programme ‘Climate Change – Britain under Threat’, Sir David Attenborough, Matt Allwright and Kate Humble explore the impacts of climate change on the UK.

    Experts consider the changes that the UK can expect given the most likely results from our experiment.

    Jay Wynne from the BBC Weather Centre presents reports for typical days in 2020, 2050 and 2080 as predicted by our experiment.”

  28. I’m not sure that it has been pointed out before, but the greatest irony in Dr. Viner’s quote is a linguistic one. Many British sir names were derived from to vocation of the person. Most people with the name “Smith” can trace their lineage back to a blacksmith, for example.

    So when I see Dr. Viner sir name I can’t help but assume that one of his ancestors ran a winery in England during the MWP that his coworkers tried so hard to wipe from the history books.

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