More heated media prepping tomorrow

Maybe some folk scan listen in on this and take notes.

PRESS ADVISORY: LEADING SCIENTISTS TO DISCUSS CLIMATE CHANGE, HEAT WAVES AND WILDFIRES

WHAT: As a heat wave sweeps across much of the country and wildfires rage in the West, many are wondering about the connection between these types of extreme weather events and climate change. Climate Communication has put together Heat Waves and Climate Change, a summary of the latest peer-reviewed literature on climate change and the recent increase in temperatures — a contributing factor to wildfires. Panelists on this call will discuss how climate change contributes to the extreme weather events unfolding now, their public health impacts and how similar risks could multiply in the future.

WHEN: Thursday, June 28, 11 a.m. Eastern Time

To call in and listen only, dial 1-855-244-8681. The event number is 660 341 332.

WHO:

Dr. Steven Running — Director, Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, Dept. of Ecosystem Sciences, University of Montana

Dr. Howard Frumkin — Dean, School of Public Health, Professor, Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington

Dr. Michael Oppenheimer — Albert G. Milbank Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs in the Woodrow Wilson School and the Department of Geosciences at Princeton University.

Susan Joy Hassol, Director at Climate Communication, will moderate the panel

Some facts from Heat Waves and Climate Change, which will be available tomorrow:

  • Since 1950 the number of heat waves worldwide has increased, and heat waves have become longer
  • In the past several years, the global area hit by extremely unusual hot temperatures has increased 50-fold
  • In the U.S., new record high temperatures now regularly outnumber new record lows by a ratio of 2:1; In 2012, the ratio for the year (through June 26) stands at more than 9:1.
  • In the U.S., the rise in heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere has increased the probability of record-breaking temperatures 15-fold
  • If we continue business as usual, the same summertime temperatures that ranked among the top 5% in 1950–1979 will occur at least 70% of the time by 2035–2064 in the U.S.
  • By the end of this century, a once-every-20 year heat wave is projected to occur every other year

h/t to reader Steve Divine

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90 Responses to More heated media prepping tomorrow

  1. Rhoda R says:

    Since 1950, eh… Of course we’re going to hear about global warming – I’m surprised that it hasn’t happened yet – or will Pres Obama push it this Fri when he goes to harang – excuse me – address the firefighters.

  2. Chris B says:

    My personal favorite: By the end of this century, a once-every-20 year heat wave is projected to occur every other year.
    A classic Cli Sci prediction.

  3. geran says:

    Probably no hidden agenda here….
    (I remember the Oppenheimer guy from years ago. I think at one time he received funding/salary from the IPCC.)

  4. agimarc says:

    I may be a simple layman, but it appears that not a single one of the so-called facts listed above are facts at all. A very long time ago I worked construction in Texas during the summer. It was hot. We expected it to be and were not surprised. Perhaps there is some correlation between this thing we call “summer” and high temperatures. (/sarc). Sadly, more GIGO from what appear to be federal grant recipients. Cheers -

  5. Tucker says:

    I’m still waiting for them to hold one of these pressers when the weather is mundane or cold outside like it is 98% of the time. Uncanny how they pick dates that coincide with AGW/alarmist weather events.

    /sarc

  6. P.F. says:

    To be meaningful and valid, shouldn’t references to past conditions go back at least 100 years and include the particularly warm (and dusty) 1930s — particularly if they are projecting out to the end of the century?

  7. ferdberple says:

    Those that can, work. Those that can’t, consult. Those that can’t consult teach.

    Leading scientists? Looks more like a bunch of academics that live in ivory towers and don’t need to worry about the real world.

    The world’s leading scientists work in industry generating wealth and money and don’t have time for such fairy stories.

  8. DesertYote says:

    Two moonbats and two professional propagandists, sounds like fun :)

  9. Jim S says:

    I still see my breath on the way into work each morning (Portland, OR).

  10. ferdberple says:

    In the U.S., the rise in heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere has increased the probability of record-breaking temperatures 15-fold
    ===========
    Last I looked atmospheric moisture has dropped as CO2 has increased. Since H2O is a much more potent GHG than CO2, the net effect has been to negate the effects of CO2. Whatever started temperatures to climb since the LIA, it wasn’t CO2. More likely temps are climbing as a result of reversing whatever caused the LIA in the first place. As no climate scientist knows what caused the LIA, they can’t say why it reversed of what has caused the modern optimum.

    What we do know is that climate today is a whole lot better than it was 60 years ago, when we had trouble feeding 3 billion people. Today we are feeding 7 billion, and food prices are much lower in real dollar terms than they were 60 years ago.

    How many other things have gone down in price in the past 60 years? Certainly not taxes! Rather than look at warming as a threat we should be counting our blessings. The one thing politician’s haven’t yet screwed up, though they are trying hard.

    Had the cooling of the 50’s and 60’s continued we would today be in very serious trouble, likely facing massive famine and starvation on a global scale.

    Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth. When the sun shines make hay!!

  11. David Falkner says:

    My prediction? Really cold winter. With all the humidity gone, we are losing a major blanket.

  12. jim says:

    P.F. says:— … shouldn’t references to past conditions go back at least 100 years …
    JK: ———-I’d say more like 5-15,000 years.

    Don’t know much about weather back then? Then get to work finding out, instead of wasting money on scare stories!

    Thanks
    JK

  13. Interstellar Bill says:

    This same alarmist media-hogging crowd quitely melts away whenver there’s a cold spell, just as do the believers in the Gasoline Price-Gauging Conspiracy, whenever prices fall, as they are doing now. Yes, like a loud sound suddenly switched off, you now notice that the denouncers of profiteering speculation are nowhere to be seen. Shouldn’t they be praising those they used to denounce?
    Just so in the impending Solar Minimum, which breaks many records as the world gets colder overall. As more and more cold records fall, this crowd too will be missing from the scene.

  14. Glen Michel says:

    Interestingly here in Australia and close to where I live NW New South Wales prolonged periods of heat wave conditions lasting up to a week were relatively common,particularly associated with el niño episodes; we haven’t experienced these events or several years now.Thoughts to your fire-fighters.

  15. EW-3 says:

    Sorry, have to arrange my sock draw at that time.

  16. Luther Wu says:

    Maybe if I’d only taken a course in the new math…

  17. Pamela Gray says:

    I believe that at least one of the studies “facts” were taken from was of a single station in LA and another “fact” is based on a study of US data from the 40’s to 1999, a 50 year time span that of course does not include the recent warming. I’ll see if I can find them. I think one of the studies was published by a non-profit watermellon organization.

  18. Again, I think it’s a case of Shock Horror Probe: heatwaves in summer! (I might be less cynical had I not gotten quite so many soakings in the British drought…)

  19. Gunga Din says:

    Since 1950 makes it easy to ignore the heat of the 1930’s and 1940’s. If the 1950’s had been hotter then they would have only gone back to the 1960’s. (A nice round 50 years.)
    Whatever they say the conclusion will be that it’s our fault but the UN can fix it.

  20. “■In the past several years, the global area hit by extremely unusual hot temperatures has increased 50-fold”

    Proof is required, plus definitions. Otherwise, withdraw the statement.
    It is becoming apparent that in at least 2 countries, past climate evidence has been tampered with to produce an outcome. If the above statement relies on tampered evidence, it is doubly-deficient.

  21. Pamela Gray says:

    Could the source by a 350.org publication?

    http://issuu.com/350.org/docs/climate-signals

  22. John Slayton says:

    Hmmm…. The day the Supreme Court releases its health care decision. And the House votes on holding the AG in contempt. These guys may be badly in need of attention…but I don’t think they’re going to get it tomorrow.

  23. The first thing they should be telling people is that the 1930’s were far worse for heat. There’s nothing remotely out of the ordinary happening. So nothing to see here folks.

  24. Pamela Gray says:

    Much more of these temperature records being broken and I’m gonna have to invest in SUMMER long johns!!!

    RECORD EVENT REPORT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
    1111 AM PDT WED JUN 27 2012

    …NEW DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 27TH…

    NOTE: STATIONS MARKED WITH * INDICATE THAT THE STATION REPORTS ONCE
    PER DAY. FOR CONSISTENCY…THESE VALUES ARE CONSIDERED TO HAVE
    OCCURRED ON THE DAY THE OBSERVATION WAS TAKEN BUT MAY HAVE ACTUALLY
    OCCURRED (ESPECIALLY FOR MAX TEMPERATURE) ON THE PREVIOUS DAY.

    STATION PREVIOUS NEW RECORDS
    RECORD/YEAR RECORD BEGAN

    *MONUMENT 2, OR 39 / 1971 38 1915
    *MORO, OR 38 / 1975 38 (TIED) 1897
    WALLA WALLA, WA 47 / 1965 47 (TIED) 1930
    YAKIMA,WA 38 / 1964 38 (TIED) 1909

  25. Mique says:

    Gotta love those “facts”. And the media take these clowns seriously.

  26. Pamela Gray says:

    I actually turned on my electric blanket last night.

  27. Barbee says:

    Another thing that is annoying here in TX is the fondness of newscasters to report “record electricity usage’…and @ the same time failing to mention the increased ‘record levels’ of population USING that electricity.
    It’s assinine-are we really supposed to believe that a larger population is expected NOT to represent a larger demand?

  28. EJ says:

    Somone and three competent interested parties need to attend this. Have some preprinted questions to ask.

  29. James Sexton says:

    Nice, they gut our fire fighting air fleet and then score points for the wild fires. Scumbags. http://suyts.wordpress.com/2012/06/20/obama-fiddles-while-the-west-burns/

  30. Barbee says:

    June 27th and we have already broken the all time record for “post-tropical cyclones” reported in the northern hemisphere.

  31. jdgalt says:

    Hey, Mr. Mann, why haven’t you filed that defamation suit yet? I can’t wait to see you in court, attempting to prove AGW to a jury.

  32. TomRude says:

    ■Since 1950 the number of heat waves worldwide has increased, and heat waves have become longer
    ■In the past several years, the global area hit by extremely unusual hot temperatures has increased 50-fold
    ==

    Sadly and despite collating the GHG heat trapping stuff, the data confirms Marcel Leroux work and shows that wider area are affected by stronger anticyclonic agglutinations -i.e. high pressure fed by powerful MPHs… result of a rapid mode of circulation starting in the 1970s, hardly a confirmation of AGW, on the contrary! Thank you guys… LOL

  33. higley7 says:

    ferdberple says: June 27, 2012 at 6:03 pm
    “Those that can, work. Those that can’t, consult. Those that can’t consult teach.”

    ferdberple, that statement does not work. I took 54 science courses, did research for 15 years, and have taught for 24 years. You really learn a subject when thou teach it. Physics, Inorganic, Organic and Biochemistry, Molecular Genetics, Oceanography, Environmental Science, and Marine Biology. I am a generalist, as I see all sciences as intimately overlapping.

    The bottom line is that I can destroy every claim made by the warmists. No gas of any kind can heat the atmosphere, global warming by CO2 is not, and by man it is not, etc.

    Do not denigrate teachers. Too many times the academics do not take the time to look at the big picture and when they finally take the time to do so, they usually turn skeptic. The other warmist scientists are simply defending their income stream. <<>> GLobal warming funding has become a billion dollar industry and it will take time to grind it into oblivion.

  34. Wagathon says:

    Everytime you turn the key in your SUV a polar bear falls from the sky and splatters on the pavement and two houses burn down in Colorado. Hey… it’s a start!

  35. wayne says:

    I couldn’t help to notice the great influx of jets this evening, late, around 10 p.m., since I live between two major flight paths into an international airport. Many appear to be military in style. Wonder if this has anything to do with tomorrow’s letting Obama renegade administration know he and his underpinnings are not above the law? Hollywood support or not.

    Oh, ‘leading scientists’ in the sub-title, that was a typo, should have read ‘lying (by omission) scientists’.

    This is such a sham. The extreme winter coldness has dried out the mismanaged forests letting high levels of wood fuel to accumulate at the floor of these forests that should have been let to burn regularly to prevent the buildup. So when you get normal high temperature dry spells, there is now a major problem. Environmentalists once again, destroying the local ’world’ themselves.

    Don’t refrain from calling these ‘scientists’ what they are.

  36. “…Since 1950 the number of heat waves worldwide has increased, and heat waves have become longer…”

    “…In the past several years, the global area hit by extremely unusual hot temperatures has increased 50-fold…”

    Then they really do need to add this “fact” (and explain why this long standing record hasn’t been beaten yet):

    “…Marble Bar Australia set a world record of most consecutive days of maximum temperatures of 37.8 degrees Celsius (100 degrees Fahrenheit) or more, during a period of 160 such days from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924…”

    An 88-year old record. 160 straight days of extreme heat. And CO2 was MUCH lower then.

    I realize that Marble Bar normally has a lot of hot days. But after 88 years, you’d think they’d have gotten close once or twice.

    Why hasn’t the increase in heatwaves matched or exceeded THIS record?

  37. Khwarizmi says:

    Maybe some folk scan listen in on this and take notes.
    That’s peach recognition for you! :-)

  38. RayG says:

    Henry III, come now, that was only weather at Marble Bar. We are talking about climate now. Just see my two GCMs, Montfort and Evesham.

  39. Michael Tremblay says:

    Fifty years is a small sample size – for the United States the highest and driest years occurred (in accurately recorded records) during the 1930’s, over 80 years ago. AGW alarmists tend to ignore that accurate records for temperature have only been taken for about 150 years so they tend to concentrate on small sample sizes, and in order to increase the alarmist results they tend to ignore records over 50 years old.
    Right now, the Pacific Northwest is experiencing one of it’s coldest periods in 40 years and average global temperatures have declined since 2007 – let’s ignore that regional results are highly variable and historical records beyond fifty years exist.

  40. Ron Manley says:

    There’s a typo in the first line. “Maybe some folk scan listen…” should be “Maybe some folks can listen..”. Were you using speech recognition? This is the type of error you get quite often.

  41. kasphar says:

    Henrythethird

    Because they only start from 1950. The BOM in Australia does the same thing. For instance, Sydney (Observatory) had more days over 35C between 1921 and 1950 than between 1981 and 2010. Yet a new report says we are experiencing hotter days now.
    Also, of the ten hottest years in the US, four were in the 1930’s. So they don’t mention those records and they can get away with saying anything.

  42. Mike Jonas says:

    1950.

  43. Leo G says:

    “the same summertime temperatures that ranked among the top 5% in 1950–1979 will occur at least 70% of the time by 2035–2064 in the U.S”
    Does that mean a shift of the mean of summertime maximum daily temperatures by about 2.2 standard deviations? If so, that implies places with a present summertime SD of 5 degree C could suffer a summertime temperature rise of 11 degree C.

  44. tonyb says:

    Anthony

    Where were the references to back up those sweeping assertions? Did they not get linked to or were they never given?

    A good bit of empirical eidence in threse northern climes is to ask readers how their outdoor tomatoes have done the last few years. Here in the UK they havent grown, let alone set, let alone ripened. You can see why when looking at the official temperature from the Met office

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/

    The temperature has been dropping steadily for a decade. We are back to the sorts of levels we had in the 1730’s and boy is it wet wet wet…

    Special offer to al WUWT readers !!! Two snails for the price of one. Hurry!! Not at all a limited offer. Buy now before they start to organise themselves and take over the country

    tonyb

  45. Peter Miller says:

    The correct expression is:

    Those who can, do.

    Those who can’t, teach.

    Those who can’t teach, teach teachers.

    Bottom line: letting career academics take business decisions usually (not always!) ends in disaster.

    Business men usually have to take responsibility for their actions, while academics rarely do, which is one of the reasons why the alarmists are so vocal about the non-problem of the supposed existence of CAGW.

    But career academics are also opportunistic: it looks like we may be heading back into an El Nino environment, which means some temperature records are going to be broken somewhere in the world, so there is going to be a chorus of “Told you so” from the alarmists over the next 12 months.

  46. Christopher Hanley says:

    “The first thing they should be telling people is that the 1930′s were far worse for heat……”
    They were; they are no longer of course: http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/1998changesannotated.gif?w=500

  47. Didn’t the IPCC recently publish a special report on extreme weather showing that extreme weather events are not related to climate change; natural or anthroprogenic?

  48. Once again, the snide, cynical & jaded exploitation of a disaster to further the aims of the climate druids. Disgusting.

  49. Bill Tuttle says:

    ferdberple says:
    June 27, 2012 at 6:03 pm
    Those that can, work. Those that can’t, consult. Those that can’t consult teach.

    Those who fail at working, consulting, or teaching go the political route and hold pressers.

  50. William Astley says:

    In support of John Slayton’s comment. John Slayton said:
    June 27, 2012 at 7:11 pm

    “Hmmm…. The day the Supreme Court releases its health care decision. And the House votes on holding the AG in contempt. These guys may be badly in need of attention…but I don’t think they’re going to get it tomorrow.”

    William: And the day European leaders discuss the imminent collapse of the EU. The EU has roughly 3 months to find a solution to their bond problem. They appear to need a dose of quantitative easing. (i.e. Print more money.)

    Meanwhile, on the climate front.
    Did anyone notice that Britain had the wettest spring in 250 years. Wet and cold. Same wet cold weather in Northwest America. Something to keep an eye out for. The solar magnetic cycle appears to have been interrupted. It appears that Svensmark and all will be vindicated. There is a physically reason why there is a 10 to 12 year delay in the onset of planetary cloud changes (both mid level and high altitude clouds are affected) from the increase in GCR, for the special case where the solar magnetic cycle has been interrupted as opposed to the normal cycle increases and decreases. There is a physical reason why cosmogenic isotope changes correlate with climate change and there is a physical reason for the delay.

  51. TimM says:

    “Maybe some folk scan listen” – need those micro-pauses between words for the speech recognition

  52. Edohiguma says:

    But didn’t some US agency state that the current wildfires were triggered by target shooters? All of course without any evidence (sounds familiar) and clearly no knowledge how a gun works.

  53. Paul Mackey says:

    I agree with Chris B
    “By the end of this century, a once-every-20 year heat wave is projected to occur every other year”
    Gibberish

  54. mycroft says:

    Are these not the same sort of scientists who tell that the USA only makes up 2% of the earth surface when it come to explaining a very cold winter?

  55. Paul says:

    Several years ago I took part in a meeting with the mayor of town here in France to discuss a building project and the fire regulations that would be required to be implemented, a representative of the fire departement was also present.

    During the meeting discussion drifted onto the subjet of wildfires. The firefighter “predicted” that in a future France would face increasing problems from wild fires, due to the way the country side was managed and changes to volunteer rules for fire fighters coming from the EU.

    The mayor said that he had visited California to meet the mayors of some towns over there, and had been told by some of them that when there was a wildfire that got over a certain size, the fire would be “allowed” to get out of control so that an emergency could be declared and the costs for fighting them would be picked up by the federal governement.

    .

  56. Peter Stroud says:

    In the UK it is floods that are exercising our politicians. I heard one minister state in the House of Commons, with certainty, that our current floods are due to climate change. She went unchallenged.

  57. Bill Tuttle says:

    As a heat wave sweeps across much of the country and wildfires rage in the West, many are wondering about the connection between these types of extreme weather events and climate change.

    So, forest fires are now “extreme weather events.” I guess that makes firefighters meteorologists, then…

  58. Jimbo says:

    As a heat wave sweeps across much of the country and wildfires rage in the West, many are wondering about the connection between these types of extreme weather events and climate change.

    An now back to the real world. I have also been speculating wondering about climate trends and not the weather. We have been constantly told the climate is not the weather (unless it backs AGW speculation).

    Abstract.
    Despite increasing temperatures since the end of the Little Ice Age (ca. 1850), wildfire frequency has decreased as shown in many field studies from North America and Europe. We believe that global warming since 1850 may have triggered decreases in fire frequency in some regions and future warming may even lead to further decreases in fire frequency. Simulations of present and future fire regimes, using daily outputs from the General Circulation Model (GCM), were in good agreement with recent trends observed in fire history studies. Daily data, rather than monthly data, were used because the weather and, consequently, fire behavior can change dramatically over time periods much shorter than a month. The simulation and fire history results suggest that the impact of global warming on northern forests through forest fires may not be disastrous and that, contrary to the expectation of an overall increase in forest fires, there may be large regions of the Northern Hemisphere with a reduced fire frequency.
    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.2307/3237261/abstract

    Decreasing frequency of forest fires in the southern boreal zone of Québec and its relation to global warming since the end of the ‘Little Ice Age’
    Abstract
    Although an increasing frequency of forest fires has been suggested as a consequence of global warming, there are no empirical data that have shown a climatically driven change in fire frequency since the warming that has followed the end of the ‘Little Ice Age’. We present here evidence from fire and tree-ring chronologies that the post-‘Little Ice Age’ climate change has profoundly decreased the frequency of fires in the northwestern Québec boreal forest.
    http://hol.sagepub.com/content/3/3/255.short

    Abstract
    Although an increasing frequency of forest fires has been suggested as a consequence of global warming, there are no empirical data that have shown climatically driven increases in fire frequency since the warming that has followed the end of the ldquoLittle Ice Agerdquo (sim1850). In fact, a 300-year fire history (AD 1688–1988) from the Lac Duparquet area (48°28primeN, 79°17primeW) shows a significant decrease both in the number and extent of fires starting 100 years ago during a period of warming.
    http://www.springerlink.com/content/m0034368216xq7u3/

    Abstract
    ……………….Thus, an increase in temperature alone need not be associated with an increase in area burned in the North American boreal forest. Since the end of the Little Ice Age, the climate has been unusually moist and variable: large fire years have occurred in unusual years, fire frequency has decreased and fire–climate relationships have occurred at interannual to decadal time scales…………….
    http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/363/1501/2315.short

    Abstact
    ………..Temperature and precipitation played a major role in shaping fire frequency and burnt area in the first half of the 20th century, but lost their importance during the second half. Our case study illustrates the occurrence of different fire regime patterns and their driving forces on small spatial scales (a few hundred square kilometers). We conclude that the strong rise in temperature over the past century has not profoundly changed the fire regime in Valais, but in the second half of the 20th century temperature was no longer a strong determinant for forest fires as compared to human activities or biomass availability in forests. ……
    http://www.springerlink.com/content/d08143873248238k/

  59. Jimbo says:

    Extreme weather trends show no trends I think.
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/26/global-hurricane-activity-at-historical-record-lows-new-paper/#comment-689783

    For those who like reading about weather calamities – here is past bad weather.
    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/bad-weather/

  60. Jimbo says:

    Small correction:

    “We have been constantly told the climate is not the weather (unless it backs AGW speculation).”

    Should read

    “We have been constantly told the weather is not the climate (unless it backs AGW speculation).”

  61. Jimbo says:

    Is there a study on arson and accidental camp fires??? It seems to be anthropogenic but has very little to do with the plant food co2.

  62. Jimbo says:

    Poptech says:
    June 27, 2012 at 11:08 pm

    For scientific references I have sections for these on the list,……

    Hi Poptech,
    You have some good references. May I suggest you put each of your categories into separate pages. It would be easier to browse and easier for the search engines.

  63. Bob says:

    Why pick the 1920’s or 1930’s to start? If you pick the 1950’s you miss the high temperatures and catch more folks who “remember” the past few decades. Besides it does seem hotter now than 50-60 years ago. Of course the age difference, no AC way back then and a few decades of working in AC have no bearing on my perception.
    Weathermen hype heat waves because the hype sells advertising. Forest management practices appear to intensify wild fires. So pick a day that is in a heat wave with the news broadcasting the Waldo Canyon fire in Colorado, ignoring that it was likely started by arson, and you have a great setting for propaganda.

  64. BillD says:

    Gee, extreme drought is causing loss of crops in the Midwest and fires in the west at the same time we see record melting in the arctic. Not to worry–at some point the forests will start disappearing as they are in New Mexico, so we won’t need to worry about fires. I have plenty of money to buy food at higher costs and the famines will mostly be in other countries.

  65. jaschrumpf says:

    If someone does call in with a question, please be sure to have all the ducks in a row. It does the skeptic position no good to not have all the facts in hand when discoursing with the alarmists, and coming off as woefully uninformed. Perhaps pick just one of the dot points in the press release and refute that, and not try to take on the whole agenda.

  66. Curiousgeorge says:

    I hear it’s going to be REALLY REALLY hot in Wash. DC today. At least for a couple people. ;)

  67. Mike M says:

    If they do not normalize the data against population increase to account for UHI they have nothing at all. The whopping majority of these records are being set by temperatures in large urban areas. In the summertime the temperature of Boston on a sunny day without a sea breeze can be 10 degrees F warmer than where I live only 20 miles to the north. I experience it often in the summer riding a motorcycle home in the evening starting out in 75 degree air and zipping up my jacket vents before I arrive home in 65 degree air. (Yes, 65 degrees can become uncomfortably cool at over 50 mph )

  68. Ed Mertin says:

    If corn doesn’t get a good soaker by 5-6 July I think yields will get worse. Beans can maybe go a little longer.
    http://m.agriculture.com/news/crops/cn-takes-dive-in-crop-progress-rept_2-ar24870

    My father says this reminds him of 1954 when he was doing basic training at Ft. Chaffee. Longest string of 100° days in a row. I hope we don’t see that broken.
    I told you this last winter wouldn’t be bad. But it turned out milder than I thought. Wasn’t looking for this bad a drought until 2016.

  69. Gail Combs says:

    Pamela Gray says:
    June 27, 2012 at 7:34 pm

    I actually turned on my electric blanket last night.
    ____________________________
    Tell me about it. The cold woke me up @ 2:30 AM and I put on another blanket. Heck its mid morning and we are up to 64F at the end of June in NORTH CAROLINA.

    The problem of course is Stephen Wilde’s Loopy Jets. Yesterday was a perfect example. Cool air sucked down from the north on both coasts while hot air was sucked into the middle of the USA. The forecast is for 102F, 104F, 102F for the next three days as the north pointing part of the jet stream loop travels over us, sucking hot tropical air into the area. Everyone will remember those hot days and forget about the nice 70F weather just before.

    http://classic.wunderground.com/US/Region/US/2xpxJetStream.html
    http://classic.wunderground.com/US/Region/US/2xpxTemperature.html

  70. Kaboom says:

    It will be interesting to hear what connection they found between global warming and the 1898 Colorado fires.

  71. Pull My Finger says:

    A. Colorado is arid and gets hot in the summer and has a lot of trees. Forest fires? DUH.

    B. The last week here in PA had highs in the 60s and low 70s.

  72. Ed Mertin says:

    I’d sure enjoy wading the Umatilla River about now fishing for smallmouth. Caught my first spring steelheads there about 14 years ago. That was quite the excitement deal for a young Arkie.

  73. kramer says:

    In the U.S., new record high temperatures now regularly outnumber new record lows by a ratio of 2:1; In 2012, the ratio for the year (through June 26) stands at more than 9:1.

    Is this because they are comparing new data to older ‘adjusted’ data (whose adjustments have lowered many older temps)?

  74. Olaf Koenders says:

    In the grip of summer 1963, St. Andrews (VIC, Australia) experienced a widespread bushfire. My parents immigrated from cold war Germany and Holland in 1965. I remember picking up molten bottles from destroyed buildings as a child in our paddock (born 1968). Almost a decade later, the climate crashed to a minimum. It’s not that people forget, just that greenies refuse to remember.. Climate has a cycle, and it’ll remind us all – but will the greenies take note? Doubt it..

  75. JJ says:

    Dear Climate Scientists –

    The largest wildfire recorded in US history was the Big Burn of 1910. That was one of many catastrophic fire seasons in the early years of the 20th century. In the Big Burn of 1910, over three million acres burned across the West. Three thousand individual fires burned together into a couple of massive infernos that completely destroyed several entire towns.

    Questions:

    1. Were the massive 1910 inferno and the other intense fire seasons in the West from 1900-1930 the result of the tailpipe emissions of the Connestoga Wagons that carried the previous generation’s pioneers to the western US?

    2. The enormous wildfires of the 1900-1930 period caused the US Forest Service to implement its “10 AM” policy in 1935. Under this policy any wildland fire was immediately and aggressively fought. The name comes from the notion that if a wildland fire was reported, it was to be completely out by 10 AM the next morning. This policy continued in force thru the late 1980s.

    Those fifty years of aggressive fire suppression have resulted in a massive fuel load accumulation in Western forests. The typical pre-suppression fire season of many smaller, low intensity fires would periodically clear out the dead trees and other fuels without destroying the forest. For fifty years, however, the 10 AM policy effectively eliminated those small, low intensity fires. The only fires that burned were those that quickly became large enough that they could not be controlled. This allowed those fuels to accumulate, leaving us currently with what foresters call the “Propane Forest”.

    So – lots of big fires in the early 1900s greatly depleted forest fire fuel stocks in the first third of the last century. Then fire suppression allowed those fuel stocks to rebuild at an unnaturally rapid rate for the next five decades. Then the “10 AM” policy was replaced in the 1980s with the “Let it Burn” policy, which allowed most naturally caused fires to be allowed to burn. Might this chain of events have something to do with fire frequency and intensity increases over the period 1935 – present?

    3. Have you no shame?

  76. mfo says:

    “With wildfires often in the news, Charles Lafon, associate professor of geography, has studied the fire history of forests throughout the southern and central Appalachian Mountains. He says trees can reveal key information about fire events…

    “We found one tree that has had at least 14 fires, and we found many other trees that had endured multiple fires,” he explains. By piecing together the fire-scar record from numerous trees, he and his students and collaborators learned that fires occurred frequently, about once every 2–10 years. He found some trees with scars dating back to the mid-1600s.

    “The point is, there have always been fires in forests. Sometimes fires are a good thing because they are nature’s way of starting over and producing new growth, and sometimes they are destructive.”

    “Many tree species that inhabit fire-prone areas have thick, protective bark,” he points out.

    “Some trees depend on fires for their own reproduction. One such tree is the Table Mountain Pine. Through a feature called serotiny, its cones often will not open to release the seeds unless they are heated by a fire, ensuring that the new seedlings emerge at an optimal time to survive and grow — right after a fire has cleared away the competing vegetation.”

    “The decline in fire frequency during the 20th century, for example, permitted tree species like red maple to encroach into pine and oak forests. Now the pines, oaks and other fire-associated species like the Peters Mountain mallow are declining in abundance, reducing the commercial value of the timber and diminishing the quality of wildlife habitat.

    “Today, agencies like the U.S. Forest Service, the National Park Service, The Nature Conservancy and private landowners use controlled burning to try to restore the fire-associated vegetation.”
    http://tamutimes.tamu.edu/2011/09/07/tree-rings-reveal-forest-fires-from-hundreds-of-years-ago/

  77. izen says:

    The key insight into the problem of increasing extreme weather events is kurtosis.

    As the climate warms, for whatever reason, the range of weather extremes and their incidence increases. The probability distribution is not Gaussian.

    http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2012/20120105_PerceptionsAndDice.pdf

    Note in fig7 how the record back to 1900 is examined both for the globe, N. hemisphere and US. As just 2% of the surface the US shows much greater variability, but the increased probability distribution for extreme events is still detectable.

  78. Laurie Bowen says:

    It should be on right about now . . . anyone listening in? If so give us an update . . . and post it here for those of us who have no access. Please . . . pretty please!

  79. Weather is not climate only when its suit them. Local heat waves as we all know are by these guys prove of CAGW.
    Funny, today it snowed in Norway. OK, not in the whole country. Only in the far north, but still, remember it’s the 28th of June. http://bit.ly/OCuh55

  80. nevket240 says:

    http://www.theage.com.au/world/record-arctic-ice-melt-20120628-2155a.html

    And the Arctic. Don’t forget to discuss the improved measurement and funding, especially the funding, since 1979.

    regards

  81. Billy Liar says:

    Climate communication = bare faced lies aimed at the dim-witted and the gullible (aka MSM)

  82. Billy Liar says:

    Barbee says:
    June 27, 2012 at 8:37 pm

    June 27th and we have already broken the all time record for “post-tropical cyclones” reported in the northern hemisphere.

    It might help you to understand what you are saying. From Wikipedia:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extratropical_cyclone

    Extratropical cyclones are the everyday phenomena which, along with anticyclones, drive the weather over much of the Earth, producing anything from cloudiness and mild showers to heavy gales and thunderstorms.

    Extratropical cyclones encompass a class of storms with many names. Although they are sometimes referred to as “cyclones”, this is imprecise; cyclone applies to numerous types of low pressure areas. The descriptor extratropical signifies that this type of cyclone generally occurs outside the tropics in the middle latitudes of Earth. The term mid-latitude cyclones may be used because of where they form; “post-tropical cyclones” if extratropical transition has occurred. Weather forecasters and the general public often describe them as “depressions” or “lows”. Terms like frontal cyclone, frontal depression, frontal low, extratropical low, non-tropical low and hybrid low are often used as well.

    Who is it that counts every ‘depression’ or ‘low’ in the Northern Hemisphere?

  83. Mac the Knife says:

    “By the end of this century, a once-every-20 year heat wave is projected to occur every other year”

    Back in the mid 90s, we had two ‘500 year floods’ on the MIssissippi river within a three year time span, in the St. Louis MO area! Should we have projected them to continue occurring every 2 years, based on that ‘trend’.?

  84. aharris says:

    I think they rely on people who spend all their time in carefully climate controlled conditions and don’t have the first clue what the great outdoors are really like. Of course, it’s hot. It’s the midwest and it’s nearly July. Yes, we had an early summer, but the temps are about what you’d expect them to be – mid to upper 90s with some triple digit. It’s just abnormally dry.

  85. David Hough says:

    In reply to tonyb

    Sat here at 300m in the Pennines we are experiencing a summer that more resembles late October or early November. Incessant heavy rain, gales and maximum day time temperatures of 14C since April, interspersed with an odd day or two of 25C.

    The last 3 winters have been harsh with heavy snowfall and temperatures below -10C. Our last sustained warm spell was 2006 when I was able to grow chillis outdoors.

    Since 2006 low temperatures and a lack of sunshine have ensured that tomatoes have failed to ripen. In a fit of optimism I am currently trialling a variety of tomato developed for US airmen to grow in Greenland. So far it is not looking to good .

    I shudder to think of what situation we would be in after the last 3 summers and winters if we were medieval peasants.

    PS I can supply more snails if you run out.

    David H

  86. Jeff Alberts says:

    We haven’t had a summer in the Pacific Northwest for at least 3 years. It’s July, and we barely hit 60f on Whidbey Island today. I had to mow my lawn yesterday with a heavy sweatshirt. We’re supposed to finally get some sun in a couple days, but the temps aren’t supposed to even hit the mid 60s.

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