More heated media prepping tomorrow

Since 1950, eh… Of course we’re going to hear about global warming – I’m surprised that it hasn’t happened yet – or will Pres Obama push it this Fri when he goes to harang – excuse me – address the firefighters.

Probably no hidden agenda here….
(I remember the Oppenheimer guy from years ago. I think at one time he received funding/salary from the IPCC.)

I’m still waiting for them to hold one of these pressers when the weather is mundane or cold outside like it is 98% of the time. Uncanny how they pick dates that coincide with AGW/alarmist weather events.
/sarc

I still see my breath on the way into work each morning (Portland, OR).

My prediction? Really cold winter. With all the humidity gone, we are losing a major blanket.

This same alarmist media-hogging crowd quitely melts away whenver there’s a cold spell, just as do the believers in the Gasoline Price-Gauging Conspiracy, whenever prices fall, as they are doing now. Yes, like a loud sound suddenly switched off, you now notice that the denouncers of profiteering speculation are nowhere to be seen. Shouldn’t they be praising those they used to denounce?
Just so in the impending Solar Minimum, which breaks many records as the world gets colder overall. As more and more cold records fall, this crowd too will be missing from the scene.

Sorry, have to arrange my sock draw at that time.

I believe that at least one of the studies “facts” were taken from was of a single station in LA and another “fact” is based on a study of US data from the 40’s to 1999, a 50 year time span that of course does not include the recent warming. I’ll see if I can find them. I think one of the studies was published by a non-profit watermellon organization.

Could the source by a 350.org publication?
http://issuu.com/350.org/docs/climate-signals

The first thing they should be telling people is that the 1930’s were far worse for heat. There’s nothing remotely out of the ordinary happening. So nothing to see here folks.

Gotta love those “facts”. And the media take these clowns seriously.

Another thing that is annoying here in TX is the fondness of newscasters to report “record electricity usage’…and @ the same time failing to mention the increased ‘record levels’ of population USING that electricity.
It’s assinine-are we really supposed to believe that a larger population is expected NOT to represent a larger demand?

Nice, they gut our fire fighting air fleet and then score points for the wild fires. Scumbags. http://suyts.wordpress.com/2012/06/20/obama-fiddles-while-the-west-burns/

Hey, Mr. Mann, why haven’t you filed that defamation suit yet? I can’t wait to see you in court, attempting to prove AGW to a jury.

ferdberple says: June 27, 2012 at 6:03 pm
“Those that can, work. Those that can’t, consult. Those that can’t consult teach.”
ferdberple, that statement does not work. I took 54 science courses, did research for 15 years, and have taught for 24 years. You really learn a subject when thou teach it. Physics, Inorganic, Organic and Biochemistry, Molecular Genetics, Oceanography, Environmental Science, and Marine Biology. I am a generalist, as I see all sciences as intimately overlapping.
The bottom line is that I can destroy every claim made by the warmists. No gas of any kind can heat the atmosphere, global warming by CO2 is not, and by man it is not, etc.
Do not denigrate teachers. Too many times the academics do not take the time to look at the big picture and when they finally take the time to do so, they usually turn skeptic. The other warmist scientists are simply defending their income stream. <<>> GLobal warming funding has become a billion dollar industry and it will take time to grind it into oblivion.

I couldn’t help to notice the great influx of jets this evening, late, around 10 p.m., since I live between two major flight paths into an international airport. Many appear to be military in style. Wonder if this has anything to do with tomorrow’s letting Obama renegade administration know he and his underpinnings are not above the law? Hollywood support or not.
Oh, ‘leading scientists’ in the sub-title, that was a typo, should have read ‘lying (by omission) scientists’.
This is such a sham. The extreme winter coldness has dried out the mismanaged forests letting high levels of wood fuel to accumulate at the floor of these forests that should have been let to burn regularly to prevent the buildup. So when you get normal high temperature dry spells, there is now a major problem. Environmentalists once again, destroying the local ’world’ themselves.
Don’t refrain from calling these ‘scientists’ what they are.

Maybe some folk scan listen in on this and take notes.
That’s peach recognition for you! 🙂

Fifty years is a small sample size – for the United States the highest and driest years occurred (in accurately recorded records) during the 1930’s, over 80 years ago. AGW alarmists tend to ignore that accurate records for temperature have only been taken for about 150 years so they tend to concentrate on small sample sizes, and in order to increase the alarmist results they tend to ignore records over 50 years old.
Right now, the Pacific Northwest is experiencing one of it’s coldest periods in 40 years and average global temperatures have declined since 2007 – let’s ignore that regional results are highly variable and historical records beyond fifty years exist.

For scientific references I have sections for these on the list,
http://www.populartechnology.net/2009/10/peer-reviewed-papers-supporting.html#Disasters
http://www.populartechnology.net/2009/10/peer-reviewed-papers-supporting.html#Heat
http://www.populartechnology.net/2009/10/peer-reviewed-papers-supporting.html#Wildfires

Anthony
Where were the references to back up those sweeping assertions? Did they not get linked to or were they never given?
A good bit of empirical eidence in threse northern climes is to ask readers how their outdoor tomatoes have done the last few years. Here in the UK they havent grown, let alone set, let alone ripened. You can see why when looking at the official temperature from the Met office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/
The temperature has been dropping steadily for a decade. We are back to the sorts of levels we had in the 1730’s and boy is it wet wet wet…
Special offer to al WUWT readers !!! Two snails for the price of one. Hurry!! Not at all a limited offer. Buy now before they start to organise themselves and take over the country
tonyb

“The first thing they should be telling people is that the 1930′s were far worse for heat……”
They were; they are no longer of course: http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/1998changesannotated.gif?w=500

Once again, the snide, cynical & jaded exploitation of a disaster to further the aims of the climate druids. Disgusting.

But didn’t some US agency state that the current wildfires were triggered by target shooters? All of course without any evidence (sounds familiar) and clearly no knowledge how a gun works.

Are these not the same sort of scientists who tell that the USA only makes up 2% of the earth surface when it come to explaining a very cold winter?

In the UK it is floods that are exercising our politicians. I heard one minister state in the House of Commons, with certainty, that our current floods are due to climate change. She went unchallenged.

As a heat wave sweeps across much of the country and wildfires rage in the West, many are wondering about the connection between these types of extreme weather events and climate change.

An now back to the real world. I have also been speculating wondering about climate trends and not the weather. We have been constantly told the climate is not the weather (unless it backs AGW speculation).

Abstract.
Despite increasing temperatures since the end of the Little Ice Age (ca. 1850), wildfire frequency has decreased as shown in many field studies from North America and Europe. We believe that global warming since 1850 may have triggered decreases in fire frequency in some regions and future warming may even lead to further decreases in fire frequency. Simulations of present and future fire regimes, using daily outputs from the General Circulation Model (GCM), were in good agreement with recent trends observed in fire history studies. Daily data, rather than monthly data, were used because the weather and, consequently, fire behavior can change dramatically over time periods much shorter than a month. The simulation and fire history results suggest that the impact of global warming on northern forests through forest fires may not be disastrous and that, contrary to the expectation of an overall increase in forest fires, there may be large regions of the Northern Hemisphere with a reduced fire frequency.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.2307/3237261/abstract

Decreasing frequency of forest fires in the southern boreal zone of Québec and its relation to global warming since the end of the ‘Little Ice Age’
Abstract
Although an increasing frequency of forest fires has been suggested as a consequence of global warming, there are no empirical data that have shown a climatically driven change in fire frequency since the warming that has followed the end of the ‘Little Ice Age’. We present here evidence from fire and tree-ring chronologies that the post-‘Little Ice Age’ climate change has profoundly decreased the frequency of fires in the northwestern Québec boreal forest.
http://hol.sagepub.com/content/3/3/255.short

Abstract
Although an increasing frequency of forest fires has been suggested as a consequence of global warming, there are no empirical data that have shown climatically driven increases in fire frequency since the warming that has followed the end of the ldquoLittle Ice Agerdquo (sim1850). In fact, a 300-year fire history (AD 1688–1988) from the Lac Duparquet area (48°28primeN, 79°17primeW) shows a significant decrease both in the number and extent of fires starting 100 years ago during a period of warming.
http://www.springerlink.com/content/m0034368216xq7u3/

Abstract
……………….Thus, an increase in temperature alone need not be associated with an increase in area burned in the North American boreal forest. Since the end of the Little Ice Age, the climate has been unusually moist and variable: large fire years have occurred in unusual years, fire frequency has decreased and fire–climate relationships have occurred at interannual to decadal time scales…………….
http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/363/1501/2315.short

Abstact
………..Temperature and precipitation played a major role in shaping fire frequency and burnt area in the first half of the 20th century, but lost their importance during the second half. Our case study illustrates the occurrence of different fire regime patterns and their driving forces on small spatial scales (a few hundred square kilometers). We conclude that the strong rise in temperature over the past century has not profoundly changed the fire regime in Valais, but in the second half of the 20th century temperature was no longer a strong determinant for forest fires as compared to human activities or biomass availability in forests. ……
http://www.springerlink.com/content/d08143873248238k/

Small correction:

“We have been constantly told the climate is not the weather (unless it backs AGW speculation).”

Should read

“We have been constantly told the weather is not the climate (unless it backs AGW speculation).”

Poptech says:
June 27, 2012 at 11:08 pm
For scientific references I have sections for these on the list,……

Hi Poptech,
You have some good references. May I suggest you put each of your categories into separate pages. It would be easier to browse and easier for the search engines.

Gee, extreme drought is causing loss of crops in the Midwest and fires in the west at the same time we see record melting in the arctic. Not to worry–at some point the forests will start disappearing as they are in New Mexico, so we won’t need to worry about fires. I have plenty of money to buy food at higher costs and the famines will mostly be in other countries.

If someone does call in with a question, please be sure to have all the ducks in a row. It does the skeptic position no good to not have all the facts in hand when discoursing with the alarmists, and coming off as woefully uninformed. Perhaps pick just one of the dot points in the press release and refute that, and not try to take on the whole agenda.

If they do not normalize the data against population increase to account for UHI they have nothing at all. The whopping majority of these records are being set by temperatures in large urban areas. In the summertime the temperature of Boston on a sunny day without a sea breeze can be 10 degrees F warmer than where I live only 20 miles to the north. I experience it often in the summer riding a motorcycle home in the evening starting out in 75 degree air and zipping up my jacket vents before I arrive home in 65 degree air. (Yes, 65 degrees can become uncomfortably cool at over 50 mph )

Pamela Gray says:
June 27, 2012 at 7:34 pm
I actually turned on my electric blanket last night.
____________________________
Tell me about it. The cold woke me up @ 2:30 AM and I put on another blanket. Heck its mid morning and we are up to 64F at the end of June in NORTH CAROLINA.
The problem of course is Stephen Wilde’s Loopy Jets. Yesterday was a perfect example. Cool air sucked down from the north on both coasts while hot air was sucked into the middle of the USA. The forecast is for 102F, 104F, 102F for the next three days as the north pointing part of the jet stream loop travels over us, sucking hot tropical air into the area. Everyone will remember those hot days and forget about the nice 70F weather just before.
http://classic.wunderground.com/US/Region/US/2xpxJetStream.html
http://classic.wunderground.com/US/Region/US/2xpxTemperature.html

A. Colorado is arid and gets hot in the summer and has a lot of trees. Forest fires? DUH.
B. The last week here in PA had highs in the 60s and low 70s.

Dear Climate Scientists –
The largest wildfire recorded in US history was the Big Burn of 1910. That was one of many catastrophic fire seasons in the early years of the 20th century. In the Big Burn of 1910, over three million acres burned across the West. Three thousand individual fires burned together into a couple of massive infernos that completely destroyed several entire towns.
Questions:
1. Were the massive 1910 inferno and the other intense fire seasons in the West from 1900-1930 the result of the tailpipe emissions of the Connestoga Wagons that carried the previous generation’s pioneers to the western US?
2. The enormous wildfires of the 1900-1930 period caused the US Forest Service to implement its “10 AM” policy in 1935. Under this policy any wildland fire was immediately and aggressively fought. The name comes from the notion that if a wildland fire was reported, it was to be completely out by 10 AM the next morning. This policy continued in force thru the late 1980s.
Those fifty years of aggressive fire suppression have resulted in a massive fuel load accumulation in Western forests. The typical pre-suppression fire season of many smaller, low intensity fires would periodically clear out the dead trees and other fuels without destroying the forest. For fifty years, however, the 10 AM policy effectively eliminated those small, low intensity fires. The only fires that burned were those that quickly became large enough that they could not be controlled. This allowed those fuels to accumulate, leaving us currently with what foresters call the “Propane Forest”.
So – lots of big fires in the early 1900s greatly depleted forest fire fuel stocks in the first third of the last century. Then fire suppression allowed those fuel stocks to rebuild at an unnaturally rapid rate for the next five decades. Then the “10 AM” policy was replaced in the 1980s with the “Let it Burn” policy, which allowed most naturally caused fires to be allowed to burn. Might this chain of events have something to do with fire frequency and intensity increases over the period 1935 – present?
3. Have you no shame?

The key insight into the problem of increasing extreme weather events is kurtosis.
As the climate warms, for whatever reason, the range of weather extremes and their incidence increases. The probability distribution is not Gaussian.
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2012/20120105_PerceptionsAndDice.pdf
Note in fig7 how the record back to 1900 is examined both for the globe, N. hemisphere and US. As just 2% of the surface the US shows much greater variability, but the increased probability distribution for extreme events is still detectable.

Weather is not climate only when its suit them. Local heat waves as we all know are by these guys prove of CAGW.
Funny, today it snowed in Norway. OK, not in the whole country. Only in the far north, but still, remember it’s the 28th of June. http://bit.ly/OCuh55

Barbee says:
June 27, 2012 at 8:37 pm
June 27th and we have already broken the all time record for “post-tropical cyclones” reported in the northern hemisphere.
It might help you to understand what you are saying. From Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extratropical_cyclone
Extratropical cyclones are the everyday phenomena which, along with anticyclones, drive the weather over much of the Earth, producing anything from cloudiness and mild showers to heavy gales and thunderstorms.
Extratropical cyclones encompass a class of storms with many names. Although they are sometimes referred to as “cyclones”, this is imprecise; cyclone applies to numerous types of low pressure areas. The descriptor extratropical signifies that this type of cyclone generally occurs outside the tropics in the middle latitudes of Earth. The term mid-latitude cyclones may be used because of where they form; “post-tropical cyclones” if extratropical transition has occurred. Weather forecasters and the general public often describe them as “depressions” or “lows”. Terms like frontal cyclone, frontal depression, frontal low, extratropical low, non-tropical low and hybrid low are often used as well.
Who is it that counts every ‘depression’ or ‘low’ in the Northern Hemisphere?

“By the end of this century, a once-every-20 year heat wave is projected to occur every other year”
Back in the mid 90s, we had two ‘500 year floods’ on the MIssissippi river within a three year time span, in the St. Louis MO area! Should we have projected them to continue occurring every 2 years, based on that ‘trend’.?

In reply to tonyb
Sat here at 300m in the Pennines we are experiencing a summer that more resembles late October or early November. Incessant heavy rain, gales and maximum day time temperatures of 14C since April, interspersed with an odd day or two of 25C.
The last 3 winters have been harsh with heavy snowfall and temperatures below -10C. Our last sustained warm spell was 2006 when I was able to grow chillis outdoors.
Since 2006 low temperatures and a lack of sunshine have ensured that tomatoes have failed to ripen. In a fit of optimism I am currently trialling a variety of tomato developed for US airmen to grow in Greenland. So far it is not looking to good .
I shudder to think of what situation we would be in after the last 3 summers and winters if we were medieval peasants.
PS I can supply more snails if you run out.
David H