I've been Mannhandled

We love you too Mikey. At least we know he reads WUWT. Get a load of this response to the above:

Tom Nelson has a collection of points about Dr. Mann’s work worth repeating here on the DKE context.

Dunning–Kruger effect – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes

Tom Nelson: If you still believe that the ClimateGate emails don’t cast a lot of doubt on Michael Mann and his work, check these out

A few points of my own:

1. Dr. Mann initially agreed to, then stormed out of a TV interview at the OC Water Summit when he found out the local TV station was interviewing Mr. Sowell because of the question he asked.

2. Dr. Mann blocks me on Twitter (and many other people who might ask him inconvenient questions), so I can’t respond.

3. Unlike Dr. Mann, WUWT does allow guest posts from people with alternate viewpoints.

4. I’ll be happy to publicly debate Dr. Mann anytime. If I’m as stupid as he suggests, it should be cakewalk for him.

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Toto

I had to look that up on Wikipedia. I like their Bertrand Russell quote; it seems quite apt:
One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision
One thing Mann has is certainty 😉 I admit that Mann does have a certain genius: his ability to Mannhandle people.

Jeremy

With all palatable respect, Mann, I called out Sowells question as poorly constructed here on wuwt. Did your echo chamber appropriately call out your lack of substantive answer?

F. Ross

Dr. Mann; >Dunning-Kruger:>pot:>kettle>:black

Personally, Anthony, I would not bother to give the arrogant so-and-so the time of day.
Chris

Wendy

yes but when you debate him and win, what does that make him? 😉

Sean

Dr. Mann is in the learning stage of being unconsciously incompetent.

DirkH

“Priceless ClimateGate email 682: Tom Wigley tells Michael Mann that his son did a tree ring science fair project (using trees behind NCAR) that invalidated the centerpiece of Mann’s work”
Oh, interesting. That introduces an omitted variable bias.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omitted-variable_bias
If they were aware of this problem, as they must have been at least since Wigley’s mail, did they examine it? Are there publications from them discussing it?
The date is “At 10:03 PM 6/5/2003 -0600, Tom Wigley wrote”
If they didn’t follow up on this, does this turn the omitted variable bias into scientific misconduct?

he’s been repeating himself hasn’t he.
in other news: obsessive compulsive disorder often leads to one’s mind quite literally evaporating.

To borrow a quote from YJB/Bill on 3840 (80m morning net) which characterizes Mann quite succinctly given his past performance (a persistent track record in which he continually applies and defends statistical techniques on dodgy/cherry-picked samples et al):
. . . . . . . . ” Never in doubt but often wrong.
.

Steve McIntyre —> Mikey Mann —> Dunning-Kruger effect.

leftinbrooklyn

An ego-blinded tyrant is an ego-blinded tyrant. The only difference between them is the level of their influence. Let’s hope Dr. Mann’s level continues to decline. Better yet, let’s not rely on hope, let’s ensure that it does. Thanks for your efforts, Anthony…

Jimbo

4. I’ll be happy to publicly debate Dr. Mann anytime. If I’m as stupid as he suggests, it should be cakewalk for him.

Exactly! If the science is on his side then he can for example come up with numerous, peer reviewed research showing that there is a worsening trend of weather extremes. Perhaps he could show as the acceleration in sea level rise – it’s got to be hiding somewhere. What about explaining WTF global warming has to do with the Mount Kilimanjaro ice cap.
He won’t debate and neither will Phil Jones, and all the other alleged climate scientists because the science was adjusted and tweaked to suit their paymasters desires. Simple as that.

AndyB

It is amazing how often people like MM make accusations against individuals which in reality are just projections of their own behavior.

Henry Galt

I can plagiarize with the best of ’em!
1. You’re reading my comment¿?
2. Now you’re saying/thinking that’s a stupid fact.
4. You didn’t notice that I skipped 3.
5. You’re checking it now.
6. You’re smiling.
7. You’re still reading my comment.
8. You know all you have read is true.
10. You didn’t notice that I skipped 9 too.
11. You’re checking it now.
12. You didn’t even notice there are only 10 facts.
With kind regards to whomever created this apt little gem 8)

Keith Battye

Hey Mikie, I know you visit here so why not come on here and answer questions about the hockey stick? It isn’t so big of a deal for you as you seem to have the time. C’mon now lets kill this bird with a bit of stoning, what say you?

How about the HAVE SCHTICK WILL TRAVEL effect?
GCMs (Global Climate Models) lack substance because they ignore a lot of important things. GCMs are illusionary. No one should consider GCMs as conforming to some established and supposedly proper methodology. That is why they are therefore more social than scientific. They are not natural. And, the character of a GCM will never have more substance than the characters that fabricate them who then pass them off as a reliable snapshot of future reality.
http://evilincandescentbulb.wordpress.com/2012/06/27/climatist-have-schtick-will-travel/

Gunga Din

If you read this, Dr. Mann, please tell us just when and with whom you’ve ever had a debate about the Hockey Stick? (People that agree with you don’t count.)
If you don’t want to answer here yourself, have one of your mannequins do it.

Gary Pearse

How anyone can read the climategate emails and come out of it with any respect whatsoever for the major players in the climate sweepstakes. Any person who supported the “consensus science” after that, has tipped his hand as a hidden agenda ideologue if he based his belief on their work. The same is true of the whitewash crew who investigated the integrity of the main players.

DJ

I’m stunned that Mann would publicly acknowledge his Dunning-Kruger Effect affliction. Even more stunned he could make that self assessment or even recognize it.
But again, he evades the real subject of Sowell’s intent and shifts the focus to the inaccuracy of Sowell’s question.

more soylent green!

Man, this guy’s like a teenager, isn’t he?
Why does a scientist need a Twitter feed? I think he not only has a persecution complex, but he is a celebrity wanna-be, complete with the fragile ego and the need to aggrandize himself at all times.

Why People Fail to Recognize Their Own Incompetence
David Dunning1,
Kerri Johnson,
Joyce Ehrlinger and
Justin Kruger
+ Author Affiliations
Department of Psychology, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York (D.D., K.J., and J.E.), and Department of Psychology, University of Illinois, Champaign-Urbana, Illinois (J.K.)
1.David Dunning, Department of Psychology, Uris Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853-7601; e-mail: dad6@cornell.edu.
Abstract
Successful negotiation of everyday life would seem to require people to possess insight about deficiencies in their intellectual and social skills. However, people tend to be blissfully unaware of their incompetence. This lack of awareness arises because poor performers are doubly cursed: Their lack of skill deprives them not only of the ability to produce correct responses, but also of the expertise necessary to surmise that they are not producing them. People base their perceptions of performance, in part, on their preconceived notions about their skills. Because these notions often do not correlate with objective performance, they can lead people to make judgments about their performance that have little to do with actual accomplishment.

DirkH

more soylent green! says:
June 27, 2012 at 1:53 pm
“Why does a scientist need a Twitter feed?”
Book promotion.
http://www.amazon.com/The-Hockey-Stick-Climate-Wars/dp/023115254X

Kaboom

I’m certain he’d be able to identify it immediately, being a fellow sufferer of the condition.

jaymam

How many “climate scientists” are there in the world? Tens of thousands? I’m not sure why the world needs so many, but can we please let some of the scientists NOT mentioned in the Climategate emails have some publicity?

Dr. Mann enjoyed worldwide fame prominence when his Hockey Stick graph was given such a prominent place in the IPCC report.
As everyone now knows, thanks to Steve McIntire, the peer-review on the hockey stick paper failed to uncover the fatal flaws.
The Little Ice Age did exist. So did the Medieval Warm Period even though the hockey stick graph essentially eliminated both.
Mann’s debunked work no longer has a prominent place, and that most likely rankles.
It is quite interesting that Mann chose to evade the actual question and instead discussed the unintentional switch of the name Briffa for Bradley.
A gentleman would have gently corrected that minor error then answered the question.
But, as I stated during the TV interview with David Nazar at PBS KOCE, it may be that Mann has been advised by his attorneys not to speak about such things until the litigation is resolved.

The DKE has been known about in the online gaming world for years. Definition below
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=noob
1. Noob
A. INTRO
I. What is this?
II. Defining ‘Noob’
B. COMMON NOOB CHARACTERISTICS
I. Noobish
II. Where to find noobs
III. Behavior of noobs
IV. Noob religion
V. More about noob habitats
C. AVOIDING NOOBS
I. Make sure you aren’t one
II. Major noob avoiding strategies
————————
A. INTRO
I. What is this?
This guide is designed to give you a better understanding of what a noob is, how to recognize them, some details about them, and how to avoid or get rid of them. It mostly applies to online forums, which are the main targets of migrating noobs.
II. Defining ‘Noob’
Contrary to the belief of many, a noob/n00b and a newbie/newb are not the same thing. Newbs are those who are new to some task* and are very beginner at it, possibly a little overconfident about it, but they are willing to learn and fix their errors to move out of that stage. n00bs, on the other hand, know little and have no will to learn any more. They expect people to do the work for them and then expect to get praised about it, and make up a unique species of their own. It is the latter we will study in this guide so that the reader is prepared to encounter them in the wild if needed.
Noobs are often referred to as n00bs
Noob
1. A noob is a person who really sucks at a game but refuses to learn/listen to people who are skilled. Many of them may have been playing the game for a while, but still suck at it. They usually have no hope.
2. Noobs generally get extremely upset over being beaten and can not admit that they are bad at the game. Often they will accuse the skilled people of hacking.
3. This word is an insult in general so people often wrongly use it and just call somebody that they do not like a noob, regardless of skill.
4. This term is often confused with the term “newb,” and people who confuse these terms are usually either noobs themselves, or somebody who is good but is just mean (and has a lot of pride for being skilled).
Newb
1. Newb comes from “newbie.” Somebody new to a game and they will generally suck at it. However, the reason that they suck is because of their unfamiliarity to the game. They have the potential to become good. This is not a derogatory term.
2. Also, newbs are not always bad at the game, as they may have played similar games in the past, but when it comes to knowing where things are, or information- they don’t know.
4. noob 2191 up, 924 down
A “noob” is a person who is new or inexperienced in a subject, usually an online game. Noobs are usually annoying and excessively stupid. Do not confuse noobs with newbs, who are inexperienced players that tend to be more mature and strive to become better.
Noob: can i hav muneys pplsplsplsplzz!!11
Newb: Would you mind sparing me some money?
-LATER-
Noob: pl0x sir!! money plszzz!!!111111111
Newb: Okay. 🙁
In the gaming world, MM is a NOOB. Unfortunately he has influence which makes him dangerous.

EternalOptimist

I was looking at that vast expanse of baldy head, then reading the post about Urban greenery sucking up the CO2.
Then I had this mental image of Mickey with a square foot of lawn on his head, doing some good at last

The Ego has landed. The guy must have strong neck muscles.

Steve C

All mouth and no trousers, as we say over here.

James Allison

So Sowell’s question to Mann mixed up two names both starting with the letter B. Ya know Mann has nothing left in his arsenal when that becomes his focus of attack. Love you Mikey! Do come on over to play with us on this blog.

commieBob

Michael E. Mann
@MichaleEMann
@ga2re2t Indeed. Though ‘ignorance’ (rather than say, mendacity) is perhaps a charitable interpretation of the behavior of Watts and his ilk.
8:03 AM – 27 Jun 12

You sir have accused a great many people and, in particular, Anthony Watts and me of being liars. If you can prove that either of us are lying about anything, prove it, otherwise apologize.

Joe Crawford

We always just called it (i.e., DKE) incompetence. Everyone is ignorant on certain subjects. Ignorance is totally acceptable. Incompetence is not recognizing or admitting your own ignorance. Incompetence is unacceptable in all cases.
For my 70 some odd years I have chosen not to deal with people that are incompetent. I understand this is very subjective on my part, but feel I am much the better for it.
Joe

James Allison

So Sowell’s question to Mann mixed up two names both starting with the letter B. Ya know Mann has nothing left in his arsenal when that becomes his focus of attack. Love you Mikey! Do come on over to play with us on this blog.

mycroft

Pure self projection Mann,shame you have not the guts to come on here and debate…but then you’ll find real answers from real people, not computer models not made up graphs,data sets, no pal review,just hard questions which you and your ilk do not want the wider public to hear.And you call Anthony ignorant!!

Scarface

@jaymam
The appropriate name for these so called ‘climate scientists’ is civil climate servants.
What they do has nothing to do with science, only with policy.

John West

This little episode underlines the need for us all to be very careful if we find ourselves in a similar situation as Dr. Sowell. I would certainly have been tempted to put Mann on the spot as well, but as we can see, any irrelevant error can be used to derail the point as Mike did by claiming Dr. Sowell was referring to a different paper than MBH98 and then stating that that paper didn’t hide a decline. So the B in MBH98 is Bradley not Briffa, so what, Dr. Sowell was obviously referring to MBH98; if Mann didn’t hide a decline why would Jones refer to it as “Mike’s Nature trick”? Anyway, I guess my point is to carefully construct any public questioning of these guys (the team); they’re professional smoke and mirror artists that can make you look foolish in a heartbeat, not to mention that they obviously have no scruples, so even if you don’t make an error they’ll probably just lie.

DirkH

jaymam says:
June 27, 2012 at 2:16 pm
“How many “climate scientists” are there in the world? Tens of thousands? I’m not sure why the world needs so many, but can we please let some of the scientists NOT mentioned in the Climategate emails have some publicity?”
Most of those are cogs in the warmist-industrial machine. Appearing from time to time with a scary sea level projection, then disappearing again. They get mentioned often enough – first, when the Old Media tries to sell units with their fresh scare stories, next, when WUWT or somebody else dissects the claims.

Olen

The definition of the Dunning-Kruger effect and how it is applied seems to be skill level is defined by whether they are agreeable.
Being agreeable is evidently the basis for acceptance and proof in climate change. Especially when the science is settled and anyone who does not agree is stupid. Or so they say.
Climate change science has a political motive and that is of interest to the unskilled in the general public that generate revenue.

More info about NOOBS and how it pertains to MM et al
III. Behavior of noobs
Since noobs are basically ignorant bastards, they have a lot in common. The most often seen characteristic is their fluency in noobish, which is why it got its own section. They will also be very self confident as if they were the absolute best at what they are in fact the worst at. Also, they are quite agressive and self-centered, and tend to laugh a lot using many L’s and O’s in rapid sucession (the noobish word for laughing like an ultimate retard).
It is their instinct to assemble in packs for defense, and they often attempt to organize packs that they call teams. Unfortunately for them, teams usually result in a total loss of communication and they can often begin to fight amongst each other. These teams are quite unlike those formed by non-noobs.
Noobs have difficulty reading English and cannot comprehend the idea of authority.
Therefore, they have an all-out disregard for rules, basic or not. A good way to identify a noob (bad) vs. a newb (good) is to tell them (or have an authority tell them) which rule they are unknowingly breaking. If they respond with an apology and fix it, they are probably not a noob. If they react by insulting everything around them in rapid noobish and causing general mayhem, it is because they are a noob and have had a small seizure due to their inability to understand what is happening.

Mann’s first whitewash prompted my satire, “Hockey Stickery Doc”. Mann’s April 2010 ‘debate’ in “Discover” magazine with Dr Curry prompted my “Non Science Nonsense” article, which prompted the first use of the term ‘Luke Warmist’ in this quote….
“Cover story, ‘After Climategate, Coming Clean About Global Warming’ is an interview with the creator of the worlds greatest hockey stick, Michael Mann and admitted middle of the rod advocate, Judith Curry. What bold journalistic balance, a warmist and a luke warmist discuss warming”.
Mike’s second whitewash prompted “Penn Panel Limbos Under the Hockey Stick”. Neither Mike’s school science project, nor his behavior have improved with age. The upside….even the worst of us can serve….as bad examples.

beesaman

There’s a Mann that believes In his own hype…..

jecrawfordjr

We always just called it (i.e., the DKE) incompetence. Everyone is ignorant. There is no problem with ignorance. Incompetence is not recognizing or admitting your ignorance and is totally unacceptable.
For most of my 70 some odd years I have chosen not to deal with incompetence and feel I am, generally, much the better for it, even though it cost me a summer session or two… but, that was many years ago…
Joe

Merovign

“Watts Up With That” is not a running joke. “Hockey stick” is.

Cris

Is “ilk” an upgrade from “bunch”?

ConfusedPhoton

Michael Mann will never debate in public. He knows that his limited ability would be exposed and everybody would know how poor a scientist he is. Furthermore his cowardice will stop him ever doing anything outside his Guardian/BBC comfort zone.

Jeff Mitchell

If you were as stupid as he says you are, you’d be just like him 🙂 He suffers from his use of psychological projection. He needs treatment.
The unwillingness to debate shows the same thing their unwillingness to share data and methods: they know they are on shaky ground and they don’t want to get knocked over.
What I’d like to see is somebody produce the list of consensus scientists and see what the particulars of “consensus” are. Certain environmental publications like to do scares with claiming extinctions are happening at X species per year, but when asked for where the statistic comes from and which species exactly were extincted for each year, they don’t have them. They make the statistic up or do surveys of the DHMO variety (see DHMO.org for more information on this dangerous chemical).
If we had a list, we could see who is really qualified, and who only holds that opinion because they heard it somewhere second hand.

DocMartyn

I have been a research scientist all my working life; I am profoundly ignorant of the system I work on and am constantly amazed at how many things I have been taught, or knew I knew, have turned out to be completely wrong.
Unlike Mann I have the luxury of being able to perform experiments which allow me to test different postulates. He mines data that may or may not record a signal, and yet is quite sure of his answer.

paddylol

What is the clinical/technical name for the “I may be wrong but I am never in doubt” syndrome?

Gail Combs

Gary Pearse says:
June 27, 2012 at 1:47 pm
How anyone can read the climategate emails and come out of it with any respect whatsoever for the major players….
_____________________________
NO, it was worse than I thought. Much worse.

Gail Combs

AndyB says:
June 27, 2012 at 1:38 pm
It is amazing how often people like MM make accusations against individuals which in reality are just projections of their own behavior.
_____________________
Don’t look now but Your ignorance of the Scientific Method is showing.