During the past 6-years since Hurricane Katrina, global tropical cyclone frequency and energy have decreased dramatically, and are currently at near-historical record lows. According to a new peer-reviewed research paper accepted to be published, only 69 tropical storms were observed globally during 2010, the fewest in almost 40-years of reliable records.
Furthermore, when each storm’s intensity and duration were taken into account, the total global tropical cyclone accumulated energy (ACE) was found to have fallen by half to the lowest level since 1977.
In his new paper “Recent historically low global tropical cyclone activity”, Dr. Ryan Maue, a meteorologist from Florida State University, examined the last 40-years of global hurricane records and found strikingly large variability in both tropical cyclone frequency and energy from year-to-year. Since 2007, global tropical cyclone activity has decreased dramatically and has continued at near-historical low levels. Indeed, only 64 tropical cyclones were observed globally in the 12-months from June 2010 – May 2011, nearly 23-storms below average obliterating the previous record low set in 1977.
On average, the North Atlantic including the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea accounts for about 1/8 of total global tropical cyclone energy and frequency. However in 2010, the Atlantic saw 19 tropical storms, of which 12 became hurricanes as expected (and forecasted) due to the intense La Nina event and continued positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The Atlantic Ocean’s accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) corresponded to about 1/3 of the global calendar year output while the Western North Pacific typhoon season experienced a record few number. Seasonal forecasters of Atlantic hurricanes expect a similar but somewhat tempered outcome for the 2011 season, which has yet to get underway.
While the North Atlantic continued a 16-year period of above-normal activity in 2010, the North Pacific including the warm tropical waters from China to Mexico experienced the quietest tropical cyclone season in at least 40-years of historical records. Similarly, the most recent Southern Hemisphere cyclone season, except for the disastrous impacts of Yasi, was also notably below average. All told through June 27, 2011, overall global accumulated cyclone energy and frequency has settled into a period of record inactivity.
—————————————————————————————————
Abstract of paper:
Tropical cyclone accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) has exhibited strikingly large global interannual variability during the past 40‐years. In the pentad since 2006, Northern Hemisphere and global tropical cyclone ACE has decreased dramatically to the lowest levels since the late 1970s. Additionally, the global frequency of tropical cyclones has reached a historical low. Here evidence is presented demonstrating that considerable variability in tropical cyclone ACE is associated with the evolution of the character of observed large‐scale climate mechanisms including the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In contrast to record quiet North Pacific tropical cyclone activity in 2010, the North Atlantic basin remained very active by contributing almost one‐third of the overall calendar year global ACE.
Citation: Maue, R. N. (2011), Recent historically low global tropical cyclone activity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, LXXXXX, doi:10.1029/2011GL047711.
Figure 1: (Updated: June 1) Last 4-decades of Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 24 month running sums through June 1, 2011. Note that the year indicated represents the value of ACE through the previous 24-months for the Northern Hemisphere (bottom line/gray boxes) and the entire global (top line/blue boxes). The area in between represents the Southern Hemisphere total ACE.
Figure 2: (Updated: June 1) Last 4-decades of Global Tropical Storm and Hurricane frequency — 12-month running sums. The top time series is the number of TCs that reach at least tropical storm strength (maximum lifetime wind speed exceeds 34-knots). The bottom time series is the number of hurricane strength (64-knots+) TCs. The added red lines are linear trends, which serve the useful purpose of delineating the respective time-series mean, since they are flat and parallel. Updated through June 1, 2011.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
More evidence that the AGW hypothesis prediction is a failure.
Evidence of a cooling planet? The spin doctors need to operate on this data stat, otherwise the patient, public belief in AGW, may die…
Can someone explain the relationship between Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Tropical Cyclone Activity?
[RyanM: Activity is a generic term. Accumulated Cyclone Energy is a well-used metric of tropical cyclone activity used by NOAA and even the EPA as a “climate indicator”. It is easily calc’d by taking the maximum wind speed reported by the NHC or JTWC every 6-hours and squaring it — then add up and divide by 10^4.]
But I was told that hurricanes are getting worse and more numerous!
As I understand it, weather is more about relative differences in temperature in the atmosphere as opposed to absolute temperature, which, theoretically is the domain of climate. So I’m not sure what this proves except, of course, that the prediction was wrong. Has anybody come up with a view on this? [RyanM: yes, everything is relative. it is a great unanswered question in meteorology, why the number of storms is what it is … ]
I bet even the historically low global tropical cyclone activity will instantly be blamed on AGW by some people.
I’ll be looking to see this highlighted at Dr. Master’s hurricane blog since he didn’t mention it in conjunction with his year of horrific events.
[ryanm: Masters will not cite my work.]
Oh and the relationship to Global Hurricane activity might be interesting as well.
It’s worse than we thought.
All our evidence has blown away.
Must have been a storm…
Another CO2 = CAGW failure of prediction divergence toward even the opposite of what the allegedly ever present “climate change” has been ordered to do by the “the physics” and “data” represented by the GCM Models. Sadly for the Anthropomorphizing Anthropogenic Anthrowbacks, the climate seems to be in a kind of denial too.
Thanks, Ryan. Very interesting (and a lot of work). But still, Al Gore “sees” hurricanes. Okay, his spin the wrong direction, produce negative energy, and cause ACE to be historically low. It is hard to compete with good fiction:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/19/not-finding-any-gore-airbrushes-in-hurricanes-for-his-new-book/
Ryan’s post, but see comment #2 by rxc.
mike sphar says:
June 26, 2011 at 9:30 pm
I’ll be looking to see this highlighted at Dr. Master’s hurricane blog since he didn’t mention it in conjunction with his year of horrific events.
[ryanm: Masters will not cite my work.]
===========================
What? He will not cite your work?
So…. Dr Jeff Masters…you are a scientist, right?
But yet you will not cite Dr. Maue’s work?
What are you afraid of?
[PS the fact that you ignore anything contrary to you is very very similar to the problem that Ayn Rand expounded upon more than a half century ago.
When Ellsworth Toohey was confronted with the incontrovertible evidence of Howard Roark’s brilliance, Ellsworth said simply: “Well I just don’t notice him.”
Res ipsa loquitur.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
[RyanM: Masters had a post in early April about the global decline in TC activity — which coincidentally occurred 3-days after I gave a presentation about it … and of course, a simple google will show that I keep track of such TC related things…Masters is a self-admitted ideologue at this point in his scientific career. He doesn’t publish research that I know of.]
Thanks RyanM, I thought I was going mad.
Remember when snow was going to be a thing of the past 10 years ago? Yet, record snowfalls these past two winters were deemed “consistent with” CAGW conjecture.
Same deal here. The koolade drinkers will come up with some contrived explanation how fewer storms is “consistent with” CAGW.
That’s when you know CAGW is more religious cult than science: it cannot be falsified. Even in the face of multiple failed predictions, the true believers cling true to their doctrine.
Ryan if you have a chance read The Fountainhead. The book was written at the median of the last century but gets EXACTLY at what is wrong with everything.
Probably the most important book written in the 20th century.
Oh wow….the 20th century….that is a relic. LOL
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Jason Bair says (June 26, 2011 at 9:28 pm): “But I was told that hurricanes are getting worse and more numerous!”
Despair not, ye faithful! No doubt the good Prof(it) Dr. Michael “Siltdown” Mann shall soon turn his attention to this blasphemous data, and lo! A blessed Hockey Stick shall miraculously appear and smite the heathen disbelievers! And the almighty See-O-Tou shall once again smile upon his flock and bless them with taxpayer money.
/sarc
Seems like the hurricanes are suffering from a lack of energy.
I see some hint of Solar Cycle minimum mixed in there, as well as Neutron Counts, but it is on for one cycle, and out of phase the next. Fascinating.
If you listen carefully, you will hear the prayers of the Gaya worship-freakamonks desperately hoping for just one deadly hurricane to hit the US mainland.
Celebrations to follow immediately thereafter.
I think it’s a great set of data. I was fiddling around with just the Atlantic basin a few years ago and was intrigued by the trends. I stopped when I found out that an actual researcher was doing real research on it. The only part about it that I was unhappy with was the lack of availability of the data in either table or csv data format.
That it’s being seriously looked at makes me happy. I can live with that.
Bravo Zulu.
It kinda runs in the face of the “worse than we thought” doctrine of wildly escalating superstorms and the like, doesn’t it? Heaven forbid, While Al Gore implodes, so does his silly theory.
If a Mann works a Tijlander magic on those beautiful graphs …………….
rateman said
” Seems like the hurricanes are suffering from a lack of energy.”
* * *
IMO, you hit the nail on the head.
And thanks Ryan, for a very interesting study. If I had to wager a guess, ( pretty much the only thing I’m qualified to do on this issue), is that after a period or year of strong highs, as evidenced by the graphs, ( 94, 98, 06) it seems to taper off a bit, into a period of lower activity and intensity.
Like rbateman says, this could be due to a lack of energy, which seemed to be expended during the last “high” period.
Of course, this is all speculation, and I could be completley off my rocker.
Anyways, thanks Ryan, for a very through study. Very pleasant to read. I just hope you didnt have to be in the middle of any cyclones to record it. Very nasty pieces of business, they can be.
[ryanm: doubtful, i live near Anthony in California…]
Yet more proof of …. a new Maunder minimum?
… OK, only kidding! But, even now I can see how something like this will be used in a few years when the “heat” is off and the “cool” topic is … global cooling and the Maunder minimum.
Somehow I know we are going to get just as sick to death of the “is it more proof of an impending ice age” as we were with the “is it more smelly socks from mann”!!
It is quite a pleasure to be able to write a paper, get it published, and then present it to the skeptical masses here at WUWT. I left out the requisite commentary that I would usually supply with my posts to keep it as professional as possible.
You’ll note if you read the paper that global warming doesn’t really come up. Indeed, I do describe climate change effects on tropical cyclones, but only in the respect of honest to goodness natural non-AGW climate change.
Ryan, congrats…… and well done. To see some realism in some research work is a breath of fresh air.
Other than the obvious oscillating events and Nino/Nina, have you noticed any other precursors to an active season?
[ryanm: yeah, the TC heat potential — or the heat content down to the 26C isotherm below the surface: see http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/SST/tcheat_atl_epac.html and look at the individual years’ anomalies, as of today…]