OK we have competing stories here. Read on, then place your bets.
Russian winter. Image from englishrussia.com – click
From the RT News service: Coldest winter in 1,000 years on its way
04 October, 2010, 22:20
After the record heat wave this summer, Russia’s weather seems to have acquired a taste for the extreme.
Forecasters say this winter could be the coldest Europe has seen in the last 1,000 years.
The change is reportedly connected with the speed of the Gulf Stream, which has shrunk in half in just the last couple of years. Polish scientists say that it means the stream will not be able to compensate for the cold from the Arctic winds. According to them, when the stream is completely stopped, a new Ice Age will begin in Europe.
So far, the results have been lower temperatures: for example, in Central Russia, they are a couple of degrees below the norm.
“Although the forecast for the next month is only 70 percent accurate, I find the cold winter scenario quite likely,” Vadim Zavodchenkov, a leading specialist at the Fobos weather center, told RT. “We will be able to judge with more certainty come November. As for last summer’s heat, the statistical models that meteorologists use to draw up long-term forecasts aren’t able to predict an anomaly like that.”
In order to meet the harsh winter head on, Moscow authorities are drawing up measures to help Muscovites survive the extreme cold.
Most of all, the government is concerned with homeless people who risk freezing to death if the forecast of the meteorologists come true. Social services and police are being ordered to take the situation under control even if they have to force the homeless to take help.
Moscow authorities have also started checking air conditioning systems in all socially important buildings. All the conditioners are being carefully cleaned from the remains of summer smog.
=======================================
From the Voice of Russia
This year’s winter may be the harshest – Polish climatologists
According to Polish climatologists, the Gulfstream- the Atlantic warm current, which protects Europe against the Arctic cold, is cooling fast. It might even disappear completely, they warn.
Russian meteorologists disagree with the pessimism of their Polish counterparts, agreeing though that the speed of the Gulfstream has indeed been reduced two-fold for several years. The Scandinavian countries are already feeling the breathing of the Arctic.
The Polish climatologist, Mikhail Kovalevski [sic] believes that if the trend continues, the climatic zones will move North and Europe will become a permafrost area for ever. But after looking at satellite pictures, NASA officials say that the global warming of the past 18 years has made the Gulfstream stronger and warmer. Russian meteorologists however hold the middle ground, Alexander Frolov, head of the Russian Meteorological Agency says.
The Gulfstream is powerful and is not declining; it warms up Europe, and consequently, it has a high significance for both Poland and the Scandinavian nations. But access to the heat might be restricted by the thawing of the ice and the turning of the water fresh – that is cold fresh water may appear on the surface, preventing the heat from going into the atmosphere to have an impact on the climate. We do not overestimate such a phenomenon, Frolov says.
He agrees that the Arctic ice is thawing fast, and according to the specialists, the area of the ice is now 4.8 million kilometers-600 thousand kilometers less than in 2007. said Frolov. That is the third minimum area of ice ever recorded since the beginning of meteorological observation. The Arctic is indeed very warn at the moment, particularly the western part, Frolov says.
But despite the warning in the North Pole, winter will set in, and according to the preliminary forecast by Russian weathermen, the country will have a normal Russian winter, perhaps not as harsh as last year, Frolov says.
January will be the coldest and February will produce a mixture of weather, he said. He promised Russians a two-week frost in many regions of the country-most likely in the northern parts.
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“NASA officials say that the .. Gulfstream [is] stronger and warmer…”
Didn’t NASA’s cohort (NOAA) measure various points on Lake Michigan at 444.7°F ?
Must be one of those metric things.
according to the specialists, the area of the ice is now 4.8 million kilometers — 600 thousand kilometers less than in 2007, said Frolov.
Really? According to factual data, it isn’t so.
Well, never let a few facts get in the way of a good story.
If the Gulf Stream is so weak, how come the sea surface temperatures for much of the northern North Atlantic are above average?
I’m betting on a mild and damp winter for Britain. Pass me the umbrella and the wellies…
“He agrees that the Arctic ice is thawing fast, and according to the specialists, the area of the ice is now 4.8 million kilometers-600 thousand kilometers less than in 2007.”
This statement is wrong
This comes from the warmist use of “ice loss”, rather than ice extent.
Shows that these guys don’t even pay attention to what is going on ouside their tiny window of “expertise”.
Frolov is all over the place. Appointed as head of Roshydromet, November 2009.
http://ipy-osc.no/article/2010/1271167951.03
Earlier.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1260132/Russian-weatherman-strikes-blow-climate-change-lobby-announcing-winter-Siberia-coldest-record.html
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90777/90856/7088694.html
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20100809/160128496.html
On the same day he is reported thus.
http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/6481772-russia-is-facing-the-hottest-waves-that-were-never-recorded-in-the-last-1000-years
Faites vos jeux!!!
In other words, we’ll have to wait and see. As usual.
“according to the specialists”
See, that’s the thing. They don’t name anyone but they do make it plural as if to imply that “many” of them believe that. Sort of like US articles that have “scientists say …” or “according to scientists …” without actually telling us who the “scientists” are.
I am sure I can find a “specialist” who will say anything I look for. I thought the article was kinda funny because I thought the whole “gulf stream weakening” thing has been debunked but people hear it at some point and just keep believing it.
I believe it will be cold this year. Oh, and the South islands of NZ have taken a walloping with a six day blizzard and “hundreds of thousands” of new lambs dead. The price of lamb is set to rise, folks.
http://www.meattradenewsdaily.co.uk/news/051010/nz___snow_hits_farmers_big_time_.aspx
What a mess :-/
“the Gulf stream has shrunk in half”
“the Gulfstream is powerful and is not declining”
“the area of the ice is now 4.8 million kilometers-600 thousand kilometers less than in 2007… that is the third minimum area of ice ever recorded”
“NASA officials say that the global warming of the past 18 years has made the Gulfstream stronger and warmer”
“Mikhail Kovalevski believes that if the trend continues, the climatic zones will move North and Europe will become a permafrost area for ever”
Lets wait and see what Joe Bastardi has to say.
Hi Antony,
you wrote: “The Polish climatologist, Mikhail Kovalevski”. It should be written: Michał Kowalewski. Here is his report “Winter Millennium”
http://translate.google.pl/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=pl&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&sl=pl&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tokfm.pl%2FTokfm%2F1%2C103085%2C8360605%2CNaukowcy_ostrzegaja__czeka_nas__zima_tysiaclecia_.html%3Forder%3Dnajfajniejsze&act=url
PS. I’m a Pole who lives in Germany 🙂
Cometh the moment, cometh the man. Piers Corbyn make your prediction.
None of these weather forecasters have a clue about climate even a few months ahead. We may as well go back to voodoo priests reading entrails for all the good these forecasters seem to be.
And as everyone ought to know by now, natural climate variation dramatically increases when considering longer periods (its not white noise – but 1/f type). Basically this means for any uncertainty over short range climate forecasts like this you can magnify this chaos by an order of magnitude for longer forecasts.
“according to the specialists, the area of the ice is now 4.8 million kilometers — 600 thousand kilometers less than in 2007, said Frolov.”
Since when is an area measured in kilometers?
It should be SQUARE kilometers.
Well, it’s certainly a good scare story.
Time will tell as to whether it is true or not………..
…”climatic zones moving north…bla…bla…permafrost…” So the permafrost comes from
Antarctica after all…???…4,8 million sq kms…600.000 sq km … LESS IS MORE…
The importance of the Gulf Stream for Eu heat/warmth just like the rumour of Mark Twain’s death may
be quite an exaggeration… … And OT SMHI : Could you please mention that 24,9C
in Nuuk/Godthaab Sept 2, 2010 was because of “weather doping” aka “foehn, strong”
DMI did, why not you…?? SMHI also baptized “Nicole” BEFORE you could see on the NHC
site…I have proof…That does not mean “Nicole” was not declared a TS, but somebody
at SMHI is mailed/called for a preview… And that piece of news was deleted at the SMHI “news site” when
“Nicole” had a quick death…The devil is always in the details…
When you look at how fast the Arctic sea ice refreeze has started, winter is definitely early this year.
According to the IJIS web site there’s substantially more ice now than there was at this time in 2007.
If we get a winter that cold there are going to be a lot of angry people around in northern Europe – hard to scream global warming when you are freezing to death – literally!
Well, the picture tells us nothing about Russian winters. It does tell us a lot about the attitude of their road maintenance workers though, who simply dump the snow on whatever is in their way. 🙂
Oh!
Confused of Devon! I won’t hold my breath just yet!
Forecasters say this winter could be the coldest Europe has seen in the last 1,000 years, but this hasn’t stopped the global warming Mafia’s propaganda.
Britain’s top-selling paper The Sun has gone all apocalyptic today
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/features/3165129/Nightmare-postcards-from-the-future-vision-of-life-after-a-rise-in-sea-levels.html
BEN JACKSON, Environment Editor
PADDY fields stretch along the Thames outside the Houses of Parliament, while a massive refugee shanty town encircles Buckingham Palace. These apocalyptic-looking images have been described as “postcards from the future”.
In total 14 shocking images of the capital have been created by illustrators Robert Graves and Didier Madoc-Jones. Their aim is to show how the world might look if sea levels rise by 23ft (seven metres) and searing heat devastates large parts of Africa, southern Europe and central Asia.
With the planet’s population squeezed into a smaller area, huge tracts of central London have been taken over by Third World refugees as millions of people flee to the few regions of the world that are still habitable.
Other images show Nelson’s Column rising from the centre of a sea of hastily built shacks and Big Ben and Parliament surrounded by water. London looks so devastated by the flooding it resembles Venice.
Madoc-Jones, who helped create these pictures using digital technology, said the images were made to help people envisage the potential threat of global warming. He explained: “When you describe flooding at a certain level, people don’t understand what it means. But when you show them a picture of London under water, people think, ‘Crikey, that’s pretty bad’. We want people to think.”
But as much as these scenes look like science fiction, some experts believe they have an air of inevitability about them, with climate scientists warning of rises of 3.5 to 4°C in average world temperatures by the end of the century.
Professor John Beddington, the Government’s chief scientific adviser, has already said climate change could destabilise populations across Europe. This would trigger waves of migrants to descend on the British Isles and Scandinavia. The professor says that without major cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, average world temperatures could even rise by as much as 6°C by 2060.
This would make most cities unbearably hot in summer, destroying agriculture and turning much of southern Europe into a desert. The increased temperatures would also melt ice across Greenland and this alone would raise global sea levels by 20ft.
If this scenario ever comes true, London, Liverpool and even Cambridge would become seaside towns.
Prof Beddington warned: “It is going to be extremely unpleasant to live in southern Europe and may not be feasible for the current level of population, so many people may need to move. Northern Europe will be a far more attractive place to live.”
Although, judging from these shots, the Queen might not agree.
Slideshow visions:
Full Nelson … shanty town in Trafalgar Square
Totally tropical … palm trees in Hyde Park
Clock that … rice grows in paddy fields in the shadow of Big Ben
Pond life … Piccadilly gives way to water lillies
Desert-ed … camels on Horse Guards Parade
Floody hell … London becomes the new Venice
Have your say
talkback@the-sun.co.uk
editor@the-sun.co.uk
letters@the-sun.co.uk
With the refreeze at a record rate the Poles may be right, though with the wretched carbon tax we will all freeze.
RE: “Polish scientists say that it means the stream will not be able to compensate for the cold from the Arctic winds.”
Presumably the raised question could be better assessed if the sudden cooling in the first war winter 1939/40 of WWII would be much better understood. http://www.oceanclimate.de/A_Large_Scale_Experiment_with_Climate/A_Large_Scale_Experiment_with_Climate.html , it had been the coldest in Europe for 100 years.
Concerning general conditions now and the wind conditions in October 1939 are quite different. Since September 1939 very high air pressure prevailed over Scandinavia, changing the wind over Northern Europe from SW to NE, http://www.oceanclimate.de/A_Large_Scale_Experiment_with_Climate/A_Large_Scale_Experiment_with_Climate-Dateien/4.jpg ,
while at the same time the Arctic warming trend since 1919 changed into a cooling phase, which was soon felt globally for more than three decades. http://www.arctic-heats-up.com/img/c1-p6.jpg
No sunspots today.
“according to the specialists, the area of the ice is now 4.8 million kilometers — 600 thousand kilometers less than in 2007, said Frolov.”
In 2007 Jaxa extent was 4.2; so the “-” sign before the number 600 probably is a minus sign, which makes it “minus 600 less” = “600 more”, and that would be correct. Obviously Frolov is still talking the soviet way.