Fight brewing between Polish and Russian forecasters over a potentially record cold winter ahead

OK we have competing stories here. Read on, then place your bets.


Russian winter. Image from – click

From the RT News service: Coldest winter in 1,000 years on its way

04 October, 2010, 22:20

After the record heat wave this summer, Russia’s weather seems to have acquired a taste for the extreme.

Forecasters say this winter could be the coldest Europe has seen in the last 1,000 years.

The change is reportedly connected with the speed of the Gulf Stream, which has shrunk in half in just the last couple of years. Polish scientists say that it means the stream will not be able to compensate for the cold from the Arctic winds. According to them, when the stream is completely stopped, a new Ice Age will begin in Europe.

So far, the results have been lower temperatures: for example, in Central Russia, they are a couple of degrees below the norm.

“Although the forecast for the next month is only 70 percent accurate, I find the cold winter scenario quite likely,” Vadim Zavodchenkov, a leading specialist at the Fobos weather center, told RT. “We will be able to judge with more certainty come November. As for last summer’s heat, the statistical models that meteorologists use to draw up long-term forecasts aren’t able to predict an anomaly like that.”

In order to meet the harsh winter head on, Moscow authorities are drawing up measures to help Muscovites survive the extreme cold.

Most of all, the government is concerned with homeless people who risk freezing to death if the forecast of the meteorologists come true. Social services and police are being ordered to take the situation under control even if they have to force the homeless to take help.

Moscow authorities have also started checking air conditioning systems in all socially important buildings. All the conditioners are being carefully cleaned from the remains of summer smog.


From the Voice of Russia

This year’s winter may be the harshest – Polish climatologists

According to Polish climatologists, the Gulfstream- the Atlantic warm current, which protects Europe against the Arctic cold, is cooling fast. It might even disappear completely, they warn.

Russian meteorologists disagree with the pessimism of their Polish counterparts, agreeing though that the speed of the Gulfstream has indeed been reduced two-fold for several years. The Scandinavian countries are already feeling the breathing of the Arctic.

The Polish climatologist, Mikhail Kovalevski [sic] believes that if the trend continues, the climatic zones will move North and Europe will become a permafrost area for ever. But after looking at satellite pictures, NASA officials say that the global warming of the past 18 years has made the Gulfstream stronger and warmer. Russian meteorologists however hold the middle ground, Alexander Frolov, head of the Russian Meteorological Agency says.

The Gulfstream is powerful and is not declining; it warms up Europe, and consequently, it  has a high significance for both Poland and the  Scandinavian nations. But access to the heat might be restricted by the thawing of the ice and the turning of the water fresh – that is cold fresh water may appear on the surface, preventing the heat from going into the atmosphere to have an impact on the climate. We  do not  overestimate such a phenomenon, Frolov says.

He agrees that the Arctic ice is thawing fast, and according to the specialists, the area of the ice is now 4.8 million kilometers-600 thousand kilometers less than in 2007. said Frolov.  That is the third minimum area of ice ever recorded since the beginning of meteorological observation. The Arctic  is indeed very  warn at the  moment, particularly the western part, Frolov  says.

But despite the warning in the North Pole, winter will set in, and according to the preliminary forecast by Russian weathermen, the country will have a normal Russian winter, perhaps not as harsh as last year, Frolov  says.

January will be the coldest and February will produce a mixture of weather, he said. He promised Russians a two-week frost in many regions of the country-most likely in the northern parts.

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October 4, 2010 11:26 pm

“NASA officials say that the .. Gulfstream [is] stronger and warmer…”
Didn’t NASA’s cohort (NOAA) measure various points on Lake Michigan at 444.7°F ?
Must be one of those metric things.

October 4, 2010 11:39 pm

according to the specialists, the area of the ice is now 4.8 million kilometers — 600 thousand kilometers less than in 2007, said Frolov.
Really? According to factual data, it isn’t so.

Mike Edwards
October 4, 2010 11:47 pm

Well, never let a few facts get in the way of a good story.
If the Gulf Stream is so weak, how come the sea surface temperatures for much of the northern North Atlantic are above average?
I’m betting on a mild and damp winter for Britain. Pass me the umbrella and the wellies…

October 4, 2010 11:48 pm

“He agrees that the Arctic ice is thawing fast, and according to the specialists, the area of the ice is now 4.8 million kilometers-600 thousand kilometers less than in 2007.”
This statement is wrong
This comes from the warmist use of “ice loss”, rather than ice extent.
Shows that these guys don’t even pay attention to what is going on ouside their tiny window of “expertise”.

October 5, 2010 12:02 am

In other words, we’ll have to wait and see. As usual.

October 5, 2010 12:10 am

“according to the specialists”
See, that’s the thing. They don’t name anyone but they do make it plural as if to imply that “many” of them believe that. Sort of like US articles that have “scientists say …” or “according to scientists …” without actually telling us who the “scientists” are.
I am sure I can find a “specialist” who will say anything I look for. I thought the article was kinda funny because I thought the whole “gulf stream weakening” thing has been debunked but people hear it at some point and just keep believing it.
I believe it will be cold this year. Oh, and the South islands of NZ have taken a walloping with a six day blizzard and “hundreds of thousands” of new lambs dead. The price of lamb is set to rise, folks.

October 5, 2010 12:10 am

What a mess :-/
“the Gulf stream has shrunk in half”
“the Gulfstream is powerful and is not declining”
“the area of the ice is now 4.8 million kilometers-600 thousand kilometers less than in 2007… that is the third minimum area of ice ever recorded”
“NASA officials say that the global warming of the past 18 years has made the Gulfstream stronger and warmer”
“Mikhail Kovalevski believes that if the trend continues, the climatic zones will move North and Europe will become a permafrost area for ever”

October 5, 2010 12:17 am

Lets wait and see what Joe Bastardi has to say.

October 5, 2010 12:21 am

Hi Antony,
you wrote: “The Polish climatologist, Mikhail Kovalevski”. It should be written: Michał Kowalewski. Here is his report “Winter Millennium”
PS. I’m a Pole who lives in Germany 🙂

son of mulder
October 5, 2010 12:31 am

Cometh the moment, cometh the man. Piers Corbyn make your prediction.

October 5, 2010 12:36 am

None of these weather forecasters have a clue about climate even a few months ahead. We may as well go back to voodoo priests reading entrails for all the good these forecasters seem to be.
And as everyone ought to know by now, natural climate variation dramatically increases when considering longer periods (its not white noise – but 1/f type). Basically this means for any uncertainty over short range climate forecasts like this you can magnify this chaos by an order of magnitude for longer forecasts.

Jean Meeus
October 5, 2010 12:40 am

“according to the specialists, the area of the ice is now 4.8 million kilometers — 600 thousand kilometers less than in 2007, said Frolov.”
Since when is an area measured in kilometers?
It should be SQUARE kilometers.

Rhys Jaggar
October 5, 2010 12:53 am

Well, it’s certainly a good scare story.
Time will tell as to whether it is true or not………..

Staffan Lindström
October 5, 2010 1:04 am

…”climatic zones moving north…bla…bla…permafrost…” So the permafrost comes from
Antarctica after all…???…4,8 million sq kms…600.000 sq km … LESS IS MORE…
The importance of the Gulf Stream for Eu heat/warmth just like the rumour of Mark Twain’s death may
be quite an exaggeration… … And OT SMHI : Could you please mention that 24,9C
in Nuuk/Godthaab Sept 2, 2010 was because of “weather doping” aka “foehn, strong”
DMI did, why not you…?? SMHI also baptized “Nicole” BEFORE you could see on the NHC
site…I have proof…That does not mean “Nicole” was not declared a TS, but somebody
at SMHI is mailed/called for a preview… And that piece of news was deleted at the SMHI “news site” when
“Nicole” had a quick death…The devil is always in the details…

October 5, 2010 1:09 am

When you look at how fast the Arctic sea ice refreeze has started, winter is definitely early this year.

Stephen Brown
October 5, 2010 1:10 am

According to the IJIS web site there’s substantially more ice now than there was at this time in 2007.

October 5, 2010 1:19 am

If we get a winter that cold there are going to be a lot of angry people around in northern Europe – hard to scream global warming when you are freezing to death – literally!

October 5, 2010 1:27 am

Well, the picture tells us nothing about Russian winters. It does tell us a lot about the attitude of their road maintenance workers though, who simply dump the snow on whatever is in their way. 🙂

Alan the Brit
October 5, 2010 1:32 am

Confused of Devon! I won’t hold my breath just yet!

October 5, 2010 1:38 am

Forecasters say this winter could be the coldest Europe has seen in the last 1,000 years, but this hasn’t stopped the global warming Mafia’s propaganda.
Britain’s top-selling paper The Sun has gone all apocalyptic today
BEN JACKSON, Environment Editor
PADDY fields stretch along the Thames outside the Houses of Parliament, while a massive refugee shanty town encircles Buckingham Palace. These apocalyptic-looking images have been described as “postcards from the future”.
In total 14 shocking images of the capital have been created by illustrators Robert Graves and Didier Madoc-Jones. Their aim is to show how the world might look if sea levels rise by 23ft (seven metres) and searing heat devastates large parts of Africa, southern Europe and central Asia.
With the planet’s population squeezed into a smaller area, huge tracts of central London have been taken over by Third World refugees as millions of people flee to the few regions of the world that are still habitable.
Other images show Nelson’s Column rising from the centre of a sea of hastily built shacks and Big Ben and Parliament surrounded by water. London looks so devastated by the flooding it resembles Venice.
Madoc-Jones, who helped create these pictures using digital technology, said the images were made to help people envisage the potential threat of global warming. He explained: “When you describe flooding at a certain level, people don’t understand what it means. But when you show them a picture of London under water, people think, ‘Crikey, that’s pretty bad’. We want people to think.”
But as much as these scenes look like science fiction, some experts believe they have an air of inevitability about them, with climate scientists warning of rises of 3.5 to 4°C in average world temperatures by the end of the century.
Professor John Beddington, the Government’s chief scientific adviser, has already said climate change could destabilise populations across Europe. This would trigger waves of migrants to descend on the British Isles and Scandinavia. The professor says that without major cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, average world temperatures could even rise by as much as 6°C by 2060.
This would make most cities unbearably hot in summer, destroying agriculture and turning much of southern Europe into a desert. The increased temperatures would also melt ice across Greenland and this alone would raise global sea levels by 20ft.
If this scenario ever comes true, London, Liverpool and even Cambridge would become seaside towns.
Prof Beddington warned: “It is going to be extremely unpleasant to live in southern Europe and may not be feasible for the current level of population, so many people may need to move. Northern Europe will be a far more attractive place to live.”
Although, judging from these shots, the Queen might not agree.
Slideshow visions:
Full Nelson … shanty town in Trafalgar Square
Totally tropical … palm trees in Hyde Park
Clock that … rice grows in paddy fields in the shadow of Big Ben
Pond life … Piccadilly gives way to water lillies
Desert-ed … camels on Horse Guards Parade
Floody hell … London becomes the new Venice
Have your say

John Marshall
October 5, 2010 1:39 am

With the refreeze at a record rate the Poles may be right, though with the wretched carbon tax we will all freeze.

October 5, 2010 1:45 am

RE: “Polish scientists say that it means the stream will not be able to compensate for the cold from the Arctic winds.”
Presumably the raised question could be better assessed if the sudden cooling in the first war winter 1939/40 of WWII would be much better understood. , it had been the coldest in Europe for 100 years.
Concerning general conditions now and the wind conditions in October 1939 are quite different. Since September 1939 very high air pressure prevailed over Scandinavia, changing the wind over Northern Europe from SW to NE, ,
while at the same time the Arctic warming trend since 1919 changed into a cooling phase, which was soon felt globally for more than three decades.

October 5, 2010 1:50 am

No sunspots today.

Alexej Buergin
October 5, 2010 1:58 am

“according to the specialists, the area of the ice is now 4.8 million kilometers — 600 thousand kilometers less than in 2007, said Frolov.”
In 2007 Jaxa extent was 4.2; so the “-” sign before the number 600 probably is a minus sign, which makes it “minus 600 less” = “600 more”, and that would be correct. Obviously Frolov is still talking the soviet way.

Baa Humbug
October 5, 2010 1:58 am

My money is on Nostradamus and the Mayan calendar.

October 5, 2010 2:00 am

Well, I don’t think the basis of either forecast is correct as mitigation of northern Europe winters by the Gulf Stream is, like CAGW, the climatological equivalent of an urban legend. In reality it is that air circulation provides the majority of heat transport:-
1. The ocean absorbs heat in summer and releases it in winter. Regions that are downwind of oceans in winter will have mild climates. This process does not require ocean currents or ocean heat transport.
2. The atmosphere moves heat poleward and warm climates where the heat converges. In additions, the waviness in the atmospheric flow creates warm climates where the air flows poleward and cold climates where it flows equatorward.
3. The ocean moves heat poleward and will warm climates where it releases heat and the atmosphere picks it up and moves it onto land.
Full paper “Is the Gulf Stream responsible for Europe’s mild winters?” by R. SEAGER, D. S. BATTISTI, J. YIN, N. GORDON, N. NAIK, A. C. CLEMENT and M. A. CANE – Oct. 2002

Stephen Wilde
October 5, 2010 2:06 am

Can any of our regular contributors provide up to date data to enable us non scientists to interpret this jumbled stuff ?
I wasn’t aware of any substantial change in the Gulf Stream itself although the waters off Western Europe are cooler than they were but I just saw that as a gradual effect from a fading of the past warming of those waters induced by the long run of late 20th century El Ninos.
I could go with the suggestion that those El Ninos resulted in a long spell of Gulf Stream strengthening (18 or so as NASA says) but that it is now in decline (as the Poles suggest). That might square the circle between the reports but, as always, extrapolating a current trend forward indefinitely is just silly.
“the climatic zones will move North”
Surely that is a typo and North should be South ?
Anyway as long as the jets remain equatorward with lots of blocking events then I would expect colder winters in the mid latitudes of both hemispheres just as we have seen.
Attempting to predict the severity and location however remains a mugs game.

October 5, 2010 2:23 am

Bogus from the start. The Gulfstrem isn’t slowing. That report was superseded by another study which said there’s too much error in the measurements and too short a data span to draw any conclusions. May be cold in Russia this summer, but I don’t believe anyone who bases that on the Gulfstream.

October 5, 2010 2:45 am

Lessee here: The Russians and the Poles both say the Gulf Stream is cooling, but NASA says it’s warming, and getting more so.
Where doth the truth lie?
Aside from prognostications and predictions, and the fact that the Arctic ice is shown to be increasing at a rather fast clip (recent post here at WUWT on ice extent), then NASA seems to be in err.

October 5, 2010 2:47 am

Trade Winds are weaker during the El Nino event on Pacific. The same weakness of Trade Winds also causes similar event on Atlantic. During this event the Gulfstream is also weaker, but as soon as Trade Winds blow faster, Gulf stream also speeds up.
It might be so that Polish have measured correctly the slow speed of Gulf Stream during the last El Nino event, but they didn’t notice that its all past now.
The warm water from last “Atlantic El Nino” has passed to north Atlantic by now and north Atlantic is everything but cold right now.
This is not to say that next winter would not be cold; it will due to strongly negative AO.

October 5, 2010 2:54 am

Nice one Matt lol

October 5, 2010 3:09 am

@ Baa Humbug
my dear fellow, your faith in me is quite touching, but speaking as a doddery old codger, semi-retired and partially retarded from an un-distinguished career in the NHS, you would be wise to go solely with the Mayans. My great uncle told me, way back in the late 40’s that the Mayans had pretty much experienced all there was to experience politically, agriculturally and climatically [ the latter by inference ] and they coped very well – up to a point. So an in-depth study of their cultural records and coping mechanisms wouldn’t go amiss.
Perhaps we could re-institute a few Mayan and Inca tactics by reviving the ancient religious art of human sacrifice. Please forward your candidate lists to me and I’ll see what I can do – I still have some contacts in the murky world of ‘medicine’. Perhaps a grand sacrifice on a grand, global scale would appease the “Weather – no! – Climate – no! – Weather – no! – Climate Gods”!
Yours etc

October 5, 2010 3:19 am

Baa Humbug;
Love it! Best summing up yet!
Don’t know the odds in a two horse race but put ten each way for me!

October 5, 2010 3:20 am

Gulfstream is not slownig and polish meteorologists are not the source of this information. All start with italian physicist – Gianluigi Zangari:
First “shocking” news comes from this site (conspiracy theories etc.):
Then the same information appeared in polish site (conspiracy again):
and “wolnemedia”.
So, please don’t say that the polish meteorologists, forecasters or scientists says that “a new Ice Age will begin in Europe. “. They don’t.

Leon Brozyna
October 5, 2010 3:52 am

Russia? Poland? Scandinavia? Who cares!
If the jet stream keeps messing around along the east coast of the US this winter like it’s been doing the past couple weeks, there’ll be heaps of snow to shovel this winter, especially in the northeast.

October 5, 2010 4:16 am

Methinks those Polish scientists have “shot their bolt” a little too early. Ice Age for Europe scares are unlikely to gain traction for another 10-20 years or so.
Surely if the Gulf Steam had indeed slowed by half then we in the UK and Ireland would know all about it by now. Also, with 50% less warm water heading in, Arctic ice
would be growing at an ‘alarming’ rate.
“The Polish climatologist, Mikhail Kovalevski believes that if the trend continues…”. Careful with those trend lines Mikhail.
Looking at some of the long standing thermometer records on the (Atlantic) gateway to the Arctic (Nuuk, Reykjavik) and using them as a proxy for sea temperatures, I’m also going with a rapid growth in “Ice Age Europe” scares (to more than 2 sd above the 1980-2010 average) in the coming decades.

Ken Hall
October 5, 2010 4:17 am

I am expecting a mild winter. Not because of climate change warming us up, but because I have seen several of these predictions of a deep winter cold recently.
In my experience, seasonal forecasts are often opposite what actually happens. I think a mild but wet winter is on the way.

Chris R.
October 5, 2010 4:25 am

Frankly, Anthony, I am surprised not to have seen you covering the “Gulf Stream cut in half” story. Considering how that plays a prominent role in the silly movie “The Day After Tomorrow”, anything stating that the Gulf Stream is slowing, stopping, coming to a halt, etc., cries out for debunking.

October 5, 2010 4:26 am

Got an email yesterday…….Richard, I went to your website for the first time and found it fascinating but some of your forecasts for snow in the NE (I live in North Jersey) in April and May, 2011 and 2012, seem extremely unlikely to verify. Are they real forecasts made using your system, or are they some type of website error? If they were to verify, goodbye interglacial, hello Ice Age!
Look forward to hearing back from you on this.
my reply;
The data used to form the maps is derived by pulling up the daily data from the same dates (within 11 to 14 days of the same as the julian date of the forecast) from past cycles from 19, 37, and 55 years before the forecast date. In these past years these actual amounts of snowfall occurred and most likely will again. However given that the solar activity was higher then, than it is projected to be for the next 10+ years.
When these cyclic patterns return I expect to see the temperatures to be running as much as 3 to 6 degrees colder, which in the past two springs allowed the snow, and freezing rain line to drop a couple hundred miles further South into the rain I had forecast. For an example look back at the forecasts maps that are still posted for the massive freezing rain caused power outage in the Tennessee, and Kentucky area the last two years. It was verified the last two years, and I expect it will again.
Welcome back to the good ole days your parents speak about.

October 5, 2010 4:35 am

“That is the third minimum area of ice ever recorded since the beginning ofmeteorological observation satellite monitoring.”

October 5, 2010 4:36 am

BBC March 2010
Gulf Stream ‘is not slowing down’
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News
Data came from the global network of Argo floats in the oceans
The Gulf Stream does not appear to be slowing down, say US scientists who have used satellites to monitor tell-tale changes in the height of the sea.

October 5, 2010 4:40 am

Caleb says:
October 5, 2010 at 1:50 am
No sunspots today.

More NASA Omega blockers as things continue to stall out.
At least that data I can see.
Wherever data is to be found on the speed and temp. of the Gulfstream, I have not been able to find. Just a bunch of statements and opinions.

Michael D Smith
October 5, 2010 4:43 am

Do I see a WUWT gulf stream page in our future?

UK Sceptic
October 5, 2010 4:47 am

Oh no, not again…

October 5, 2010 4:49 am

well, so far it has been cold here – colder than climatic norm (as given in wikipedia =) by approx. 4C, or even more, granted that norm is averaged for October, and it has just started. Compared to a string of warm autumns we’ve been having during ’00s, it feels.
What strange is the wind patterns – we’re having north-easterlies again, except in summer they were hot and now they are cold.
Now, it is just a personal, so i may be wrong. But it is common to think that autumn brings endless rains – weak but prologned, it is nothing like that this year… just yet. Well, we’ll see

Wilson Flood
October 5, 2010 4:56 am

Re Kate, 1.38 am, the photos were in the Sunday Times also. I am not sure how many believe this stuff any more. Sea level at London is rising due to land sinking. Britain is tilting due to post glacial rebound.
West Arctic was warm because of a blocking high in the Atlantic diverting dying hurricanes over W Greenland rather than over W Europe giving UK a fine September. This high has gone for now and W Greenland is cooling and we in UK are getting wet again. I am afraid that these climate “scientists” are of a poor calibre. Everything is attributed to AGW even although the theories would not predict rapid and large warming in W Greenland as we have seen in recent weeks.
Voice of Russia totally wrong on ice areas.

Frank K.
October 5, 2010 4:59 am

crosspatch says:
October 5, 2010 at 12:10 am
“according to the specialists”
“See, thats the thing. They dont name anyone but they do make it plural as if to imply that many of them believe that. Sort of like US articles that have scientists say or according to scientists without actually telling us who the scientists are.”
This is a common device used by the American MSM. For example, they take flimsy poll numbers and state “…the American people say…” which, of course, is complete BS.
As for this winter, I’m going with colder and snowier than normal up here in New Hampshire. Accordingly, I’m need to order two tons of pellets for my pellet stove today :^)

October 5, 2010 5:00 am

Lets see now, Europe is the object that continues to complain about global warming but is dependent on the Gulf Stream to remain warm. They are willing to pay oodles of money for “carbon credits” so that they do not get warmer. The US is running a huge budget deficit. This suggests an obvious solution. Build a large dam that stops the Gulf Stream from getting to Europe and charge them to let any water get through. Then they can pay us all the money that they waste on their fool carbon credits. They get their desired temperature, we get our desired money. Problem solved. /sarc (In case there is an AGW person reading this.)

October 5, 2010 5:21 am

If you want to tap into the storm of alarm on this topic, just do a Google search on [gulf-stream-gone] … Some are blaming the BP oil spill and others are saying this is a consequence of global warming — the universal suspect.

October 5, 2010 5:24 am

A visit to Pravda did not reveal any sort of reports on Global Warming, Cooling, Disruption, Weather, forecasts… etc.
No mention even of a 1,000 yr winter event.
The only thing remotely connected is Russia vs Canada Arctic territorial claim disputes, with the US as the primary contender with Russia, followed by a rising Canada and China entering the fray with a fleet of icebreakers.
So, they are all plowing about seeking to carve up as much ice as they can to assert themselves.
The biggest obstacle as the Russians see it, is that there is just plain too darn much ice up there at present.
So, while the West flogs itself with dire predictions and economy-bruising tax proposals, the Russians can’t wait for a Big Melt.

October 5, 2010 5:33 am

The Gulf Stream is wind-driven and largely dependent on the patterns imposed on the North Atlantic by the jetstream – which, as we know, is shifting, most probably as a result of the very low magnetic fields of the Sun and the lowering of UV radiation (and heating effects transferred to the lower atmosphere that influence the polar vortex).
The warmth of Western Europe is largely due to the maritime climate and general westerly winds and advection of the normal seasonal warmth of the Atlantic irrespective of the northern transport of heat by the Gulf Stream – that is, the Gulf Stream effect on western Europe is minor despite the long-standing myth that it is crucial.
However, the nature of the heat transfer is strongly influenced by the pattern of Icelandic cyclones that create a SW air current (especially into Britain) being replaced by anticyclones which block this heat transfer and bring north-easterlies and Arctic air southward. I think we are experiencing such a shift and this accounts for the recent cold winters. The wet summers seem to be due to a eastward and southerly shift of the ‘loopy’ standing wave of the summer jetstream – likewise the Russian wildfires and the Pakistani floods.
The regular Atlantic mutidecadal oscillations (AMO) in these low pressure/high pressure systems of 60-100 year duration now have an additional factor of the potentially protracted solar minimum (Dalton or Maunder?). As far as I am aware, nobody knows what drives the regular AMO – but there is evidence the longer term cycle (Little Ice Age/Medieval Warm Period/Roman Warm Period etc) is solar driven (UV?).
The North Atlantic is beginning to cool after several decades of warming in a natural cycle. The North Pacific is already in a cool phase. Thus, continental temperatures will also begin to fall – unless, of course, the greenhouse gases can over-ride these natural processes. I am with John Christy, when he told the BBC that he thought AGW accounted for only about 25% of the observed warming (in the UAH data, presumably). Thus, the warming cycle accounts for 75% of the recent warmth (I put it at 80% in my own assessment in ‘Chill’) and the cooling cycle for the recent flatlining of global temperatures. As this latest El Nino is replaced by La Nina, and all other cycles entering a cooling phase, we will get to see who is right within 3-5 years – not warming, but cooling!

October 5, 2010 5:55 am

the Gulf stream has shrunk in half”
“the Gulfstream is powerful and is not declining”
“NASA officials say that the global warming of the past 18 years has made the Gulfstream stronger and warmer”
“Mikhail Kovalevski believes that if the trend continues, the climatic zones will move North and Europe will become a permafrost area for ever”
Other reports of a rise in mean global tempertures of 4C by the end of the century and massive 7 m sea level rise.
Yep, they have their bases covered, so whatever happens anywhere outside of the mean is “GLOBAL CLIMATE DISRUPTION” and of course the cause was mankind and his CO2 output.

October 5, 2010 5:57 am

OOPS, I forgot the most important part for these folks, “so whatever happens anywhere outside of the mean is “GLOBAL CLIMATE DISRUPTION” and of course the cause was mankind and his CO2 output: so that gives us the right to TAX THE HELL out of you and tell you how to live.

October 5, 2010 6:09 am

If the Gulf Stream were to ‘slow’ down then the effect would be seen elsewhere around the Globe as well. It’s a part of the bigger Global Ocean Conveyor. For major changes, short of actual data from the likes of NOAA and NASA, watch the Greenland East coast (WARNING: It’s a lot like watching paint dry.). During the LIA North Atlantic ice grew from West to East and shrank from East to West.

Jean Parisot
October 5, 2010 6:44 am

Ha, first time I toss in a tip – I get a hit. Think I will quit early and go fishing.

James F. Evans
October 5, 2010 6:45 am

Could it be that the Gulf Stream current is shrinking because the ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico and surrounding ocean water is reducing as a result of the quiet Sun, the last couple of years?
Now, it’s true, ocean currents change, wax & wane, periodically, independent of solar energy, but it would seem to be worth investigating whether the Sun/ocean heat content relationship has impacted the Gulf Stream current.
For Europe’s sake I sure hope the Gulf Stream picks back up…or Europe will have cold winters for a long time to come…brrrr

Dave Springer
October 5, 2010 6:54 am

Good thing the science is settled. Predictions on the upcoming winter in Europe would
be all over the board and useless otherwise.

October 5, 2010 6:56 am

Mike Haseler says:
October 5, 2010 at 3:12 am
10:1 a decent IT person will track down all the emails they have “hidden” in a matter of minutes.
Some people think that when something is deleted it’s gone. Doh!

October 5, 2010 6:57 am

Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
October 5, 2010 at 6:56 am
Wrong thread. DOH!

October 5, 2010 6:59 am

I will buy wollen socks and other garments and stock up on fuel and food and stuff,
just in case.
Better to have and not need, than need and have not.

October 5, 2010 7:04 am

Didn’t a prominent professor from MIT (Wunsch, I believe) say that the earth would have to stop rotating and winds would have to stop blowing before the Gulf Stream would stop? Maybe I’m suffering a memory error.

October 5, 2010 7:15 am

@MattE <— this site surely shows a significant shutdown/slowdown. This is how it looked like before it changed last year:

RR Kampen
October 5, 2010 7:26 am

Nonsense. Gulf Stream is okay, warming is continuing and season forecasts still don’t work.

October 5, 2010 7:45 am

Does anyone remember what the Russians did with their wheat when there was a shortage? The immediately banned exports.
If it gets really cold in Russia, what will happen to the natural gas exports that many countries in Europe depend on? Will there be enough electrical generating capacity to allow people to keep warm? Coal fired heat and electricity might be getting a lot more popular if there is another disruption in the natural gas supply.

October 5, 2010 7:53 am

Dear Mr Watts,
Two points.
1. One or a few Polish forecasters and one or a few Russian forecasters doesn’t constitute whole or bigger parts of Polish and Russian forecasters’ domain. It is bad journalism’s hyperbole or overkill to shout “Polish and Russian forecasters…” (in plural).
2. Polish names should be written in Polish language like Kowalski in famous American movie Vanishing Point (
The error was made by Russians. Someone in The VOR was too lazy to translate Russian Mikhail Kovalevski to Polish Michał Kowalewski. Instead he simply transliterated Russian version to English one.
The correct form is – in English Michael Kowalewski (as surnames are not translatable), and in Polish Michał Kowalewski.
A lot of WUWT readers repeat the
moronic RussoPolGlish language.
So, I strongly but humbly ask you to correct the “language farce” with name of Mr Michał Kowalewski. Use either Polish or English language.
Thank you.
REPLY: The Polish name is as the article provided. The s on forecasters implies the team, not the individuals. Overuse of bolding might get attention, but is annoying. – Anthony

October 5, 2010 8:00 am

Look guys…. I’m gonna go out on a limb here and state categorically that the winter will definately be cooler than the summer.
I know, I know…. Controversial stuff…. But I gotta call it as I see it…..;-)

October 5, 2010 8:16 am

Matt says:
October 5, 2010 at 1:27 am

Well, the picture tells us nothing about Russian winters. It does tell us a lot about the attitude of their road maintenance workers though, who simply dump the snow on whatever is in their way. 🙂

Now, now, plow drivers don’t have the fine control of their equipment to as do people with shovels.
I have a photo that is very similar to that I took in Marlboro Massachusetts in 1978, but the snow was fresher and not splashed with much crud because of the week-long driving ban. Unfortunately, I don’t have that online. I do have a photo of a car abandoned on I 495 with a plow bearing down on it (the plow didn’t hit the car) two days after the storm. See – haven’t had a storm like it since (wind, snow, and starting around noon on a weekday), one of the failed “promises” of AGW in New England.

October 5, 2010 8:39 am

REPLY: The Polish name is as the article provided. The s on forecasters implies the team, not the individuals. Overuse of bolding might get attention, but is annoying. – Anthony
1. Yes, “as the article provided” but then I used my time to explain why it is wrong and uncivil to repeat someone else’s error. I write and read Rutherford not “Razerfot” in Polish. Why you Americans cannot do the same? Now you cannot say I did not know so you would make the corrections in respect to our – Poles – heritage, wouldn’t you?
2. But the “s” is not supported by more names. I worked as a journalist so I know what they “are” – the journalists – and what methods they use to find readers.
3. “Overuse of bolding” was unintentional (my errors maybe) and you could easily understand that. I emphasized only a few words.
P.S: I expected from your side a deeper thought then the desultory answer.
REPLY: Well what I’ll do then, is the standard thing in journalism for misspellings. I’ll put a [sic] next to it to emphasize that the name is misspelled. If you contact the original authors and they make a change, I’ll gladly follow.
P.S. Also, while you say “desultory”, I think you need to take a step back and ask yourself why you need to insult me and WUWT readers with the word “moronic” in your previous comment, while at the same time you are “humbly” asking for a correction. You could use some humility sir. – Anthony

October 5, 2010 9:10 am

Last words not more then.
“Mikhail Kovalevski” is written in moronic Russo-Polish-English language (RPE) what I proved.
It was not my intention to offend anybody but to point to the obviously moronic RPE language in which the name was written. Even if YOUR readers, sir, are using it. I ventured to let them know that they used incorrect form of Mr Michał Kowalewski’s name.
I wonder why you do not have problems with “bugger off” used in your recent comment but wrongly interpret what I said? But that’s your problem, sir. Perhaps culture gap played its role – American hubris versus Eastern pursue of truth.
REPLY: American hubris? My goodness. All over a cultural spelling issue. I’m pointing out that your request lacked tact. Your argument is so weak you have to reach outside the current discussion for something unrelated. – Anthony

October 5, 2010 9:40 am

I don’t know what causes the jet stream, but I’m glad it exists. Every once in a blue moon, it goes north of here for a few days during the winter and it’s like summer all over again. Then it goes back to freezing when it moves back south. Anyone know what would happen if the jet stream didn’t exist at all? Other than ridiculously long winters.

RR Kampen
October 5, 2010 9:41 am

REPLY (from mr. Watts): The Polish name is as the article provided.
Of course you know better than a Pole 🙂
REPLY: Couldn’t resist your base urges could you? And as I pointed out, the standard practice for reproducing articles and essays where a word is misspelled is to place a [sic] next to it. Which is what I’ve done. If the authors change it, so will I. Don’t like that? Tough noogies. – Anthony

RR Kampen
October 5, 2010 9:47 am

My last post, sorry for that. The ‘[sic]’ should do okay.

October 5, 2010 10:27 am

@Mr. Watts
Real name of this Polish scientist is Michał Kowalewski. And no, he’s not saying that
” if the trend continues, the climatic zones will move North and Europe will become a permafrost area for ever”
In fact he’s saying something different:
Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) do NOT predict a new ice age and do NOT predict that this winter will be coldest in 1000 years.
This is not slowdown/shutdown, but effect of RTOFS changes on 18/19 september 2009:

October 5, 2010 10:53 am

MattE says:
Gulfstream not slowing.

I checked the link and it doesn’t say that at all. It says that global warming is not slowing the Gulf Stream.
“They believe that small differences observed in its pace since research began in 1993 are part of a natural cycle. The findings call into question theories proposed by some environmentalists that global warming could shut down the stream, causing temperatures to fall dramatically in Europe.”

October 5, 2010 11:02 am
October 5, 2010 11:09 am
October 5, 2010 11:16 am

CAGW-Skeptic99 says:
October 5, 2010 at 7:45 am
Let’s start another panic, then. Quick! Don’t let the alrmists beat you to it. 😉

October 5, 2010 11:17 am

Kate says:
October 5, 2010 at 1:38 am Britain’s top-selling paper The Sun has gone all apocalyptic today
Apocalypse (Greek: Ἀποκάλυψις Apokálypsis; “lifting of the veil” or “revelation”) is a disclosure of something hidden from the majority of mankind in an era dominated by falsehood and misconception, i.e. the veil to be lifted.
And that veil was lifted on the 19th November 2009. Remember “Climate Gate”?

Chris Frey
October 5, 2010 11:38 am

Excuse me if I offend someone. I am a German writer, thus not a climate scientist. But I am a freak of cold weather (don’t blame me! It’s just that I can’t help it).
I see a little further. The warmer than usual waters around Greenland and a little colder in lower latitudes leaves to the conclusion, that the absolute difference in temperature in the North Atlantic sea surface temp. is located much further south than usual. As the water temperature puts its mark on air streams, this means that in general the westerly flow equally should be located further south, maybe flowing over the Mediterranian. This would mean harsh cold for much of Western, Central and Eastern Europe.
So, I bet on a very severe winter! The strange behave of animals (birds, squirrels) which I haven’t seen for years underlines this bet.
Regards to all! Chris Frey

October 5, 2010 12:26 pm

Chris Frey says:
October 5, 2010 at 11:38 am
That’s a fresh and cool forecast!

October 5, 2010 12:29 pm

Chris Frey says:
October 5, 2010 at 11:38 am
And it’s pure common sense, that forgotten sense which only a few have!. As a song says:
Honesty it’s a word hard to find.

R. de Haan
October 5, 2010 4:25 pm

More realistic IMO: Joseph D’Aleo’s Winter 2010 – 2011 forecast:

October 5, 2010 6:09 pm

I see a lot of options are being expressed!
PS CO2 changes have ZERO impact on weather or climate in the real world

October 5, 2010 6:42 pm

Anthony, I just checked Caspers link. It mentions Dr Gianluigi Zangari, who if you google, you will find he claims the Gulf stream is dying because of the BP oil spill, thus our addiction to oil is causing our planet to cool(lol). This is sensational/conspiratorial BS news and does not deserve spotlight in your blog.

Oliver Ramsay
October 5, 2010 8:24 pm

Przemysław Pawełczyk says:
“…blah, blah, blah….”
While your antipathy towards Russians is of mild interest and although your English is quite good, my advice to you is to take a couple of Atiwan ( or however you might spell Ativan in Polish) and devote more effort to understanding some of the rudiments of our language. I understand that you don’t have definite or indefinite articles in Polish, but in English they convey meaning. A similar point can be made about verb inversion in direct questions.
Unfortunately, your command of English is not equal to the task of pedantic correction of a native speaker’s use of plural nouns and so, your purported grammatical point winds up looking like cultural chauvinism.
I think you’d have more fun contemplating the re-dilution of the saline oceans by the unknown, but massively increased, issue of unsalted water from the world’s continents.

October 5, 2010 8:48 pm

I’d like to endorse the idea of more posts on the Gulf Stream, or the entire system of the Thermohaline current system in the Atlantic. A number of years ago I read a paper in the AGU (yes, they have good papers on most topics) about the location in ocean core samples where they found the remains of various organisms that are known to populate warmer or colder waters. The paper correlated the location of this particular organism that attaches to colder waters in an arc that went from west to east, at about the northern reach of the Mediterranean, during the last glaciation, as opposed to a much more northerly location in the Atlantic today. This lead the author to surmise that during the last glaciation the gulf stream turned east, considerably further south than today, lending credence to the southern advance of glaciation. And if this is nearly correct, it means that the Gulf Stream doesn’t go away during glaciation periods, it moves further south, and it stays there for a very long time, like 100,000 years.
Any data about the Gulf Stream flow rates and location would be appreciated.

John F. Hultquist
October 5, 2010 9:45 pm

Peter Taylor says: at 5:33 am
The Gulf Stream is wind-driven . . .”
Is that 100% wind driven or just the part not controlled by topography and a rotating Earth?
And then there is the warmth supplied by the Mediterranean ouflow into the north Atlantic.
Otherwise, you make good sense, so it seems to me.

October 5, 2010 11:35 pm

Please check the name Dr. Gianluigi Zangari. Couple of posters have already notised where this story has originated. It was reported couple of weeks ago, at a finish newspaper, as a frontpage news. Turned out to be completely bogus.
Some polish blogs told the story of Dr. Zangari, who claims that the Gulfstream has slowed because of the oil spill. Then, a radioshow interviewed a meteorologist, who told that if the gulfstream would slow, it could become cold in Europe. If.
After that, it was reported at a polish newspaper, witch claimed it to be a forecast by a polish meteorologist. And then a finish newspaper took the bate, with out bothering to check the facts. Finish blogs had to do the work for them!
So the forecast has not been made by meteorologist, it’s the courtnesy of Dr. Zangari. A polish meteorologist simply told what would happen if the Gulfstream would slow down.

Ulric Lyons
October 6, 2010 3:32 am

My solar based forecast for deviations from normals through winter 2010/2011, is in general very similar to the forecast given by Theodore White
with the stronger negative anomalies occurring from mid February through March. Not a classic `Modern Winter`, but milder than last winter.

Ulric Lyons
October 6, 2010 3:38 am

John F. Hultquist says:
October 5, 2010 at 9:45 pm
Peter Taylor says: at 5:33 am
“The Gulf Stream is wind-driven . . .”
Is that 100% wind driven or just the part not controlled by topography and a rotating Earth?
The jet streams (apart from one occasional sub-tropical jet) are going in the same direction as the rotation of the Earth, but faster. If anything, the streams would be helping to spin the Earth, not the other way round !
And what about the `Eckman Spiral` and water being moved at right angles to the wind direction ?

October 6, 2010 6:17 am

Ummm….Isn’t Russia cold EVERY winter? For some reason, the names “Napoleon” and “Hitler” come to mind…
What does the Farmer’s Almanac say? It has a better record than most.

October 6, 2010 7:42 am

Policyguy says:
October 5, 2010 at 8:48 pm
Any data about the Gulf Stream flow rates and location would be appreciated
I dont have direct data but there is a possibly important source of indirect data in the form of sea temperatures (100-150m depths) in the Barents Sea measured over the last century. A paper by Levitus et al (2009) showed a striking correlation between these 100-150m Barents temperatures and the past century reconstruction of the Atlantic Multideadal oscillation (AMO). It was a WUWT posting last year:
The paper is:
Levitus, S., G. Matishov, D. Seidov, and I. Smolyar (2009), Barents Sea multidecadal variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19604, doi:10.1029/2009GL039847.
The Barents Sea is at the tail end of the North Atlantic Drift (NAD). The 100-150m water temperature century scale oscillation shown in this paper has amplitude up to 4C, which seems too large to be accounted for by atmospheric weather effects – it seems more likely that ocean currents – the NAD in particular – could account for this. Other papers on Arctic sea temperatures talk about inflow of warm Atlantic water as a dominant factor.
This would seem to suggest an oscillation in the strength of the NAD coinciding with the AMO.
BTW if you want proof that the NAD reaches the Barents, in the 1990s Bellona, a Norwegian Environmental organistation, measured radioactive waste isotopes in the Barents intending to find evidence of leaking Russian reactors dumped on the sea bed. Instead the isotope signature they found characterised another source of the radioactivity – discharges from the Sellafield reprocessing plant into the Irish Sea, UK.

Ulric Lyons
October 6, 2010 7:47 am

Old Farmers Almanac has similar indications as myself and Theodore, and I would agree parts of December will be below norm`s, but not the coldest part of winter, considering November should be very mild well into the month.

October 11, 2010 2:39 am

The media in the Baltic states have picked up on the dispute. The Lithuanian climatologist quoted says this winter is “unprognosible,” bravely staking out the middle ground.
My intuition says first snow in Vilnius before Halloween followed by cold but not extremely cold winter, a la a little warmer than the winter of ’41-’42. The kicker might be unusual precipitation in East Scandia/Finland/Kola with gusts bringing it south, in other words, there might be a few heavier than usual snowfalls.

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