Hurricane Earl is quickly losing steam as it barrels northward and begins its recurvature in the middle latitudes. The main threat to New England will be a broad area of tropical storm force winds with gusts near hurricane force. Yet, the threat will be relatively brief as the transitioning storm moves into Canada.
Also see Anthony’s collection of satellite loops from yesterday’s post: Link
As an update to the 2010 Atlantic season in general, the development of four consecutive African Easterly Waves into Danielle, Earl, Fiona, and Gaston really got weather enthusiasts excited — and the public a little weary of potential US impacts. However, with Danielle and Fiona destined to be fish-storms, and Earl moving away from the US, that leaves the remnants of Gaston (now just a tropical low) as the main consideration over the next 10-days.
The very reliable ECMWF forecast model does not redevelop Gaston and sends the next wave off of Africa quickly northward. So, at least through the next 10-days, unless something develops close to home, the Atlantic looks relatively quiet especially compared to the recent burst of activity.
The seasonal forecasts all expected an above average year — we are at the letter G — with two big storms: Danielle and Earl, and another hurricane Alex as the main Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) producers of the season. Just as a thought, the expected active 2007 season had many storms (15 – through Olga), but only two, Dean and Felix, managed to produce 3/4 of the total ACE. The other storms were relatively weak, short-lived, and not particularly memorable.
I produced a plot for Roger Pielke Jr on his blog, and I have updated it through today. The current ACE is about 62 and that is about 10 days ahead of climatology in the Atlantic based upon the past records from 1950-2009. The peak of the season is September 11, so there is still half the season (at least) ahead of us.
Figure: Atlantic ACE to date (little black dots) and climatology (little red dots) based upon 1950-2009 storm records. The forecast ACE for the MetOffice (UK), NOAA, and Gray and Klotzbach (CSU) are indicated on the plot.
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Have you noticed that the hurricanes have migrated eastwards and northwards?
They are obviously following a predicted pattern, but of course not NOAA’s computer games models but the magnetic field :
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC20.htm
Not to surprised, pristine conditions for CV/ATL development, The MJO Phase Space shows a trend going back into Phases 1 and 2. The MJO graphic only has it up to Aug 31st in the near neatral bowling ball center, but the update should have it in the most favorable Phases 1 & 2 for Wave/Ts Genesis and Major Hurricane development.
Well we will see, but I doubt it will be a much more active hurricane season than normal.
Thanks For this post, [Dr. Maue, I presume?].
I have a couple of observations and was wondering if any of them made sense.
(1) Jim Cantore remarked when he was riding out the storm on Hatteras, that how “cool” the air was, as opposed to the oppressive tropical air that is normally experienced in a strong tropical cyclone.
Understood about the part that the storm was taking in very dry air, and that was helping “cool” the air mass, but for the following reason…there seems to be more than just that, at play.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
(2) Earl, at its height, almost had a Katrina-type look to him. I understand there was one dropsonde reading of 199 MPH.
But, given the dry air intrusions and the increasing shear, despite the very deep, warm SST’s, the cyclone started to sputter.
But was there something else at play…?
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
(3) When Earl sloshed by here [Virginia Beach], the forecast temperature max busted by a full 20 degrees from earlier forecasts.
They were predicting a hot downsloping dry day of 92 degrees. Last I checked it was 72 degrees with wraparound light rain bands that more resemble the day after a temperate cyclone than the day after a tropical one.
If this were Winter, it would be wraparound snow flurries.
Very surprising end to this storm, though, with the trough bringing in Canadian air, not unheard of I suppose.
Except that cold front is not here yet.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html
Is there something else….at play?
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Does a tropical storm become an extratropical storm when it moves to higher lattitudes or does it have to start off there? And where do subtropical storms fit in?
Andy
What else might be at play here?
What else might be keeping the ACE so low this year, and somewhat confounding the aggressive forecasts of NOAA, UKMET, and Gray/Klotzbach?
Could it be the dramatic cooldown of the Atlantic’s bigger sister, the Pacific, is telegraphing the cooldown across the globe, like it always does in the atmosphere a few months later…by leaving less convective available potential energy?
And just like the models missed by a long shot the amount of tropical heat was to transport north with this storm and their downslope, 92 degree day on the Virginia coast, perhaps they are missing….
…that there is less heat available in the atmosphere, period.
And perhaps the thing that occupies the most mass in our solar system, well….while the oceans are probably the horses which pull the chariot of climate….perhaps Mr. Sun might be the individual cracking the whip.
The globe appears to be cooling….or at least “telegraphing” it is cooling…with the behavior of the tropical cyclones this year….it seems.
[Note: The author of this series of posts makes no claim to their scientific accuracy LOL. They are just some musings of one layman, who likes to fly at 40,000 feet.]
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
The outcome, as usual, was forecasted here in WUWT two days ago:
Richard Holle says:
September 1, 2010 at 3:19 am
Climatology is not weather, the average of the past is no predictor of the future.
The planetary influences that drive the electromagnetic interactions that in turn, drives the production of the tropical storms, will be lacking and the winds they will be a slacking, from the 3rd or 4th of September;.
To clarify:
The globe appears to be cooling….or at least “telegraphing” it is cooling…with the behavior of the tropical cyclones this year….it seems.
I meant, that, despite the near record high global temps, the globe seems to be telegraphing “cooling” and this is first showing up in tropical cyclone behaviour this year…
@AndyW: I’d suggest starting off here. I’m not near enough of an expert to explain better. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extratropical_cyclone
Yes, tropical cyclones do typically become extratropical at higher latitudes. You’ll also hear them referred to as a cold core low. A subtropical storm is a hybrid between an extratropical and tropical (warm core) cyclone.
AndyW says:
September 3, 2010 at 12:32 pm
Does a tropical storm become an extratropical storm when it moves to higher lattitudes or does it have to start off there? And where do subtropical storms fit in?
===================================
Tropical cyclones are warm-core systems, extratropical (or temperate or mid-latitude cyclones), are “cold”-core, and subtropical ones are a hybrid of the two.
I always though it ironic as to how some of the most destructive cyclones on the planet are extratropical, that they don’t get a name. [Such as the ones that wallop the Pacific coast of the USA and Europe from time to time].
Yet we will name every little tropical and subtropical blip that comes along.
What will crack me up someday if NOAA really REALLY gets legalistic with us and starts issuing when we are threatened by a potent hybrid, a “subtropical storm watch” or “subtropical storm warning”…..that will be funny.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
As Earl winds down, A big 7.0 Earthquake hit about 30 miles Wesy Of Christchurch New Zealand. Lot sof Damage in the city; but no reports of casualties so far.
That’s about the size of the 1989 Loma Prieta quake in the SF Bay Area (San Jose.
savethesharks says:
September 3, 2010 at 1:00 pm
the globe seems to be telegraphing “cooling” ….
Don’t say it aloud! Ya know that stuff of “we know where you live”, etc.
Anthony, the ECMWF is only one model. You can’t rely on one model to make a forecast. As a former metorologist, you should know.
RyanMaue: True enough, but for a cursory look at what’s coming off of Africa in the 5-10 day time range, the ECMWF IFS is the best in the business, by a lot. Also, I would not call my ruminations a “forecast” but a synopsis.
Enneagram, thats an interesting correlation you’ve produced.
It’s a minor point, but ‘El Nino’ has only one “l” in its name.
Slightly more importantly, I’m not completely clear as to the meaning of your sentence: “EL NINO events arise in an area of the equatorial Pacific where crossings
of the magnetic (Z-component) and geographic equators are found. ” Could you clarify that for the sake of us laymen?
Finally, and to me most importantly, what is the source of your data?
Right now, I’m more impressed with the lack of storms forming in the Caribbean and gulf.
Let’s give this a try … 2 hr loop ‘capture’ of Earl ending about 2025z 248 nm range from the OKX Brookhaven/New York City WSR-88D:
Earl/RADAR loop/ 2 hrs ending 9-03-2010 2025z – http://i51.tinypic.com/zt6jpx.jpg
Comment: Precip looks to be not as extensive as yesterday; a 2nd precip ‘wave’ can be seen coming onshore about the Long Island area, with a 1st wave having diminished as it came ashore …
.
Can you refer us to any sea-level plots of temperature and humidity to support this?
We have already discussed what the WV imagery showed …
.
John_in_Oz says:
September 3, 2010 at 1:27 pm
It is NOT my point but M.Vukcevic’s:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/GandF.htm
latitude says:
September 3, 2010 at 1:42 pm
No drilling allowed in the area, remember? 🙂
_Jim says:
September 3, 2010 at 1:47 pm
savethesharks September 3, 2010 at 12:27 pm
Can you refer us to any sea-level plots of temperature and humidity to support this?
We have already discussed what the WV imagery showed …
=======================================
Can you refer us to any hurricane specialist or meteorologist who said the very dry upper and midlevel air which Earl ran into over the NW Atlantic, did not have a noticeable negative effect on the cyclone?
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
So we have Earl kicks up a hell of a fuss down there in the Carribean, and then turns into a fizzer of sorts as it gets up north. But notice that Fiona and her followers also seem to have gone phut !
One might conjecture; sans models or data; that Earl did a number on the SSTs in that particular Atlantic track; and sucked the life out of anybody following in his footsteps.
so maybe a lot of wannabe Hurricans just got stillborn on account of Earl’s Carribean enthusiasm.
So how long should we have to wait for another monster to get going ?
Ed Rappaport, one of the directors at the National Hurricane Center, was quoted as saying that the southwesterly shear was helping force the very dry air, into the system.
Look I get what you are saying about most of the “intake” is from the surface, but when they talk about “deep tropical moisture” they mean just that: in all levels of the atmosphere.
And Earl headed into an area where there was no deep tropical moisture.
And it eventually got the best of him.
Sort of like…he was surrounded in his own bubble fortress of deep juicy tropical air that he thrived on….only to be surrounded on the perimeter, by the enemy very dry air.
And as one of the other enemies, vertical shear weakened and blew the tops off his convection, this allowed the army of dry air to invade the ranks.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
savethesharks says:
September 3, 2010 at 1:00 pm
the globe seems to be telegraphing “cooling” ….
This is purely anecdotal, but here in Ireland, we’ve had a very average summer, save for the last few days, when it’s been quite pleasant.
But the heat doesn’t linger. Go into the shade or as soon as the sun sets, it gets quite cold. Weird. I’d say it’s setting things up for a cold winter.