FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact: Chris Vaccaro 202-482-6093 August 5, 2010
NOAA Still Expects Active Atlantic Hurricane Season; La Niña Develops
The Atlantic Basin remains on track for an active hurricane season, according to the scheduled seasonal outlook update issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. With the season’s peak just around the corner – late August through October – the need for preparedness plans is essential.
NOAA also announced today that, as predicted last spring, La Niña has formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This favors lower wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, allowing storm clouds to grow and organize. Other climate factors pointing to an active hurricane season are warmer-than-average water in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, and the tropical multi-decadal signal, which since 1995 has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in unison, leading to more active seasons.
“August heralds the start of the most active phase of the Atlantic hurricane season and with the meteorological factors in place, now is the time for everyone living in hurricane prone areas to be prepared,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the whole season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated outlook is projecting, with a 70 percent probability, a total of (including Alex, Bonnie and Colin):
- 14 to 20 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
- 8 to 12 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
- 4 to 6 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
These ranges are still indicative of an active season, compared to the average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes; however, the upper bounds of the ranges have been lowered from the initial outlook in late May, which reflected the possibility of even more early season activity.
“All indications are for considerable activity during the next several months,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “As we’ve seen in past years, storms can come on quickly during the peak months of the season. There remains a high likelihood that the season could be very active, with the potential of being one of the more active on record.”
Be prepared for the hurricane season with important information available online at hurricanes.gov/prepare and at FEMA’s ready.gov.
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us at http://www.noaa.gov or on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/usnoaagov.
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Ryan Maue adds some perspective to the hurricane season to date: is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy through August 5th a useful indicator of the total season activity? Not quite yet: for 1950-2009 historical Atlantic activity, the correlation is still low (r = 0.47) between the ACE through August 5th and the entire season. During the past 30-years (1980-2009) the correlation is (somewhat) better (r=0.63) but there are many seasons that have zero or very little activity at this point in August.
A reference bar graph whipped up from the HURDAT best-track archive of ACE shows the on average, only about 10% of the ACE is seen through August 5 (from 1950-2009).
Figure. North Atlantic tropical cyclone accumulated energy (ACE) for the entire season (black bars) and values through August 5 (lime green portion of bar).
So far with Alex, Bonnie, and Colin, we have ACE of about 8, a far cry from the 71 from the record 2005 season. With the seasonal forecasts from NOAA, Gray and Klotzbach at CSU, Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi, TSR, FSU COAPS, and the UK MetOffice ALL prognosticating well-above average activity, the Atlantic will need to start ramping up quickly. With this season, let’s hope the consensus forecast is wrong!
Wanna bet? 🙂
Everyone also forecast a big season in 2006, which didn’t happen.
http://www.batterysavers.com/2006-hurricane-forecast.htm
A picture is worth a thousand words:
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/48622000/jpg/_48622085_009923644-1.jpg
As an experienced commodity trader (weather influences prices), I can tell you that NOAA’s seasonal predictions now have near zero credibility in this business. Flip a coin.
Unfortunately, NOAA has been busily damaging their reputation with their active participation in the AGW hoax, so most of uis no longer take them seriously. They don’t have a very good track record on hurricane predictions in any case. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a goodly number of stroms the rest of the season, but my gut feeling is that the forecasters are wrong on the high side as far as total ACE goes.
The fly in the ointment would be the occurrence of Arctic Oscillation changes. This event can bring storms onto the seaboard instead of into the Gulf.
For example, see the following
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI3560.1
Would the very short lived TS Colin have been counted or even noticed without satellite data?
my prediction is we will be average this year!
As someone who spent considerable time as a bureaucrat, I can assure you that any government employee with any sense is always going to predict doom and gloom over sweetness and light. If you go with doom and gloom and nothing happens, you get teased a little. If you go for sweetness and no hurricanes and just one of the b#st@rds shows up, you end up in the papers.
Easy decision.
I don’t think a lot of people are paying too much attention to this yet. I bet this changes soon (or at least I hope so) as the tropics are coming alive. The potential for a couple of monster storms to impact the US Gulf & Atlantic coastline’s, is definitely there. Time to pay attention folks.
I have to hand it to NOAA, they are gutsy in exposed situations like forecasting hurricanes where the numbers are in a couple of months – unlike the we-will-all-be-dead forecasts for the climate. I thought they would chop their forecasts down a lot more than they did.
They need to have a word with the UK Met Office, looks like a good time to give up the forecasting business.
What does ACE look like so far?
Isn’t every year “above-average?”
Found it: http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/global_running_ace.jpg
Still at historical low….
Tom in Florida:
Not only would Colin not have been noticed or counted 50 years ago; neither would Bonnie. The day Bonnie went through here was more calm and less rainy than our usual summer day.
Our advice: When drinking a cup of coffee or tea, do not stir it up too much, NOAA will appear and name it.
Joe Bastardi reminds us that La Nina years have a tendency of slow starts. He explains why in a video he posted today. A must see for everybody.
http://www.accuweather.com/video/73146202001/no-changes-to-my-hurricane-idea.asp
Another good thing about the video is that outspoken Joe reminds us that La Nina is a factor but not a cause of an active hurricane season. The most active recorded year was not a La Nina year. The last La Nina was a minor hurricane season.
If the remnant low of Colin reforms into another closed low wouldn’t it get a new name also? Danielle…
When Colin reforms later in the week, will they count it twice?
I’ll trust Joe Bastardi at <a href="http://www.accuweather.com"Accuweather.com before I trust NOAA.
Joe predicts an 18-21 named storm season.
Good enough for me.
stevengoddard says:
August 5, 2010 at 10:08 am
“When Colin reforms later in the week, will they count it twice?”
You know, I was wondering what happened to Colin…if you blink, you’ll miss these storms!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhc_storms.shtml
Well, Larry. It may be worth a thousand words, but what did you have in mind? Potassium levels measured in glaciers show that there have always been and will always be forest fires, regardless of prevailing climate. Was that your point?
If Colin reorganizes, it will not count twice or be renamed, it is the same system. However, if a system dissipates and moves in to the Eastern Pacific, and reforms, it will be renamed.