Here’s the last NOAA release on hurricane season: NOAA Expects Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season from May 27, 2010. Now an update is coming. Still busy? We’ll see.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact: Susan Buchanan 301-713-0622 August 2, 2010
MEDIA ADVISORY
NOAA to Issue Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA will update the Atlantic hurricane season outlook this Thursday and provide the latest information on the climate factors behind the outlook, including the role of ENSO (La Niña/El Niño) in the tropical eastern Pacific. This scheduled update coincides with the approaching historical peak of the hurricane season.
What: Media teleconference announcing the updated Atlantic hurricane season outlook.
When: Thursday, August 5; 11am ET
Who: Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center
How: To obtain the number and passcode for the teleconference, please send an e-mail to susan.buchanan@noaa.gov or call 301-713-0622
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We in the uk could do with some of your hurricanes starting.. We get the soggy remnants and they’ve already started on their ridiculous drought talk.
What did they rediscover La Nina or do they still use Al Gore’s movie as a guide to when the next hurricane comes?
Is such an update a normal, annual event?
If not, can someone on the teleconference ask what the trigger for this update was?
In the meantime, the wonderful EPA is going to pass new rules regulating…. Dust!
Hey, California is once again at the forefront of trends. How do you like us now America??????
This is the kind of “prediction” you get from NOAA. These “predictions” come with regular updates. For an extra fee, each “prediction” comes with a “prediction” of the time for the first update of the “prediction.” (Yes, the series is infinite.) All of this is based on the very best science, of course.
Dermot O’Logical says:
August 2, 2010 at 1:03 pm
Is such an update a normal, annual event?
If not, can someone on the teleconference ask what the trigger for this update was?
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Yes, monthly, this is how they claim to be accurate at the end of the season.
The trigger was the end of July.
Nope. Sorry. NOAA is already on the record. No do-overs. Live or die by the numbers.
Anyone looking at the NOAA website could be forgiven for thinking it is based on Al Gores ‘AGW scarefest mockumentary’.
The AGW narrative dictates that hurricanes will increase in intensity,duration and frequency so that is what NOAA predicted and obviously they got it wrong yet again, we could have told them at the start of the year just as we could have told them last year that just because the AGW narrative dictates something it does not mean it will happen.
Next time they could save some money and visit Joe Bastardi and Watts up with that for a lesson or three?
So the robust forecasts are wrong. Why get angry when people test the forecasts and find them to be faulty.
Joe Romm is hotter than a hornet when no one reacts to his 2050 forecasts.
The NOAA seems to be of somewhat low relevance.
has anyone posted this?
2 Aug: UK Register: Lewis Page: Boffins: Arctic cooled to pre-industrial levels from 1950-1990
Late 20th century saw polar chill as CO2 rose
New research by German and Russian scientists indicates that summer temperatures in the Arctic actually fell for much of the later 20th century, plunging to the levels seen at the beginning of the industrial revolution.
The new results are said by their authors to indicate that solar activity exerted a powerful influence over Arctic climate until the 1990s, an assertion which will cause some irritation among academics who contend that atmospheric carbon is the main factor in climate change…
The tree rings were probed by specialist ring boffins at Institut für Botanik at the Universität Hohenheim in Stuttgart, cooperating with colleagues in Russia and at the Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ)…
The research will be unwelcome in the hard-green movement, as it appears to undermine the direct connection between human carbon emissions and global warming – indicating as it does that temperatures actually fell back to pre-industrial levels from 1950 to 1990, just as human carbon emissions were really getting into high gear. Furthermore, the previous warming trend up to 1950 actually began in 1840, before the industrial revolution had even begun…
The paper produced by the scientists can be read here by subscribers to Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/08/02/arctic_treering_cooling_research/
Isn’t it a little late for this?
Sarcasm off. Genuine scientists do not update predictions. Rather, they determine them to be confirmed or disconfirmed. “Disconfirmed” means false. Genuine scientists update their hypotheses in the light of disconfirmed predictions. That means that they take account of a false prediction and remove from their set of hypotheses some hypothesis that they believe to be falsified. After replacing it, they can make new predictions. Apparently, that is what NOAA is doing. The only people who update “predictions” are spin masters, aka front men. I wonder if NOAA would share with us just how they updated their hypotheses? That would be called “transparency.”
“NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.”
correction
Tries to “understand”
Wishes they could “predict”
Please stick with plankton counting.
How’s the chimp doing? Does this mean he wins because Noaa blinked first?
18/3/2010
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/18/think-tank-says-trained-chimp-can-predict-hurricanes-better-than-noaa%e2%80%a6-and-puts-it-to-the-test/
All this cooling might actually produce a hurricane like Catarina
There has not been and there won’t be any hurricanes this season. Just a few tropical depressions being hurriedly baptized, while still in nature’s womb, by NOAA. This is unusual for a La Nina (as they knew her) but now southern atlantic ocean and gulf waters are cold.
The Landscheidt minimum is here to stay:
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
“NOAA will update the Atlantic hurricane season outlook this Thursday and provide the latest information on the climate factors behind the outlook, including the role of ENSO (La Niña/El Niño) in the tropical eastern Pacific. This scheduled update coincides with the approaching historical peak of the hurricane season.”
It’s “worse than we thought”! “Climate factors” are changing so fast that they need to be updated every two months! Of course, if our best climate experts can’t project the climate past 10 weeks, one might be skeptical of their capacity to project forward a century or three, but only if you are ignorant, stupid, and suffering from a malignant cognitive disorder.
Wasn’t there a monkey making predictions as well? Does he get a chance to revise his numbers? Or was he doing better than NOAA in the first place.
Were NOAA ‘s outpourings the storm before the calm?
Maybe they are just going to show a clip of Gilda Radner as Emily Litella saying,
“Never mind”
It’ll certainly be interesting to be given an opportunity to examine the science/ideology ratio of the predictions.
Wasn’t there a chimpanzee offering an alternative forecast a while back? How is it doing compared to the NOAA one?
Kindest Regards
I had planned to issue my prediction in November. Anyone have a problem with that?
(You can do that if you’re a climate scientist, you know. I’m not a climate scientist but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.)
No comment.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/glbT2mSea.gif