By Steve Goddard
El Niño made it’s last gasp this week. Note that SST’s in the equatorial Pacific went from above normal to below normal during the past few days.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/plots.php
Is there a La Niña on the way? Most of the models said no in April, though it appears they may be already wrong – given that they forecast positive ENSO through the summer. Two models forecast a very strong La Niña.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf
The last El Niño to La Niña transition occurred in 2007, and caused a sharp drop in GISS global temperatures.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:2006.9/to:2008.1
Most of the US had a miserably cold winter during the recently deceased El Niño. It is not pleasant to think what a cold La Niña winter might bring.
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php?action=update_userdate&daterange=DJF&year=10
Here was my prediction from February, 2010 :
Flashback to 2007 – SST To Plunge Again?
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Wow, look at those computer models, Robust just does not seem to cover it. One month is what it takes for the models to diverge half a degree. Two months make it a full degree. Six months give us a two and a half degree range. One of the models is bound to be right. Of course the fifteen or so that are wrong won’t count.
Well, if this fall and winter are cold, you can bet that GISS will show that it was the 2nd warmest fall winter on record!!!
This is good news for lizards
The SSTs are clearly falling. What about the OHC? Any recent data available?
The atmosphere is still warm however and it will be interesting to see if it falls fast.
More “rotten” snow on the way then?
Perhaps a lacklustre NH summer, followed by another viscious NH winter.
I wonder if the Authorities will once again be caught short on preparations for cold weather, and how many lives will be snatched by the cold as AGW lies subvert preparations and divert resources into useless activities such as windmills.
What will be the impact on NH agriculture of another tough, long winter? Food prices up?
it’s been fun watching the women tennis players in madrid wearing long sleeves and pants in mid-may. yes, madrid is at a little altitude, but surely this is still unusually cold weather for spain at this time of year.
Andy Murray roars back to form with easy Madrid Masters second round win
On a desperately cold evening at the ˜Magic Box’ tennis facility in the Madrid suburbs, when it felt more like Dunblane than Spain, Andy Murray plainly had no intention of dragging out his second-round encounter with Argentina’s Juan Ignacio Chela
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/tennis/andymurray/7716586/Andy-Murray-roars-back-to-form-with-easy-Madrid-Masters-second-round-win.html
Joe Bastardi has been predicting this over at Accuweather.
He has also predicted a viscous N.H. winter 2010/2011
F.W.I.W he has also been predicting a viscous hurricane season this year.
Sun is currently spotless, La Nina possibly developing, if one of those Iceland Volcanos erupts with a half decent ash and SO2 cloud into the stratosphere then you Northern hemisphere dwellers will need to get out the long johns.
“Perhaps a lacklustre NH summer”
Perhaps not. Joe D’Aleo points out the tendency for warm (at least U.S.) summers in a transition from an El Nino to a La Nina. The summers of 1983, 1988, and 1995 come to mind.
We’ll see how much of a drop off we get with neutral or cool conditions. But I’d be willing to say that global temperatures correlate pretty well with ENSO if you account for a few month lag.
I definitely agree with Bastardi that hurricane season will be quite active. I mean…look at the anomalies in the Central Atlantic! Dang. Guess the winds are the other factor. Those will be the only unknown this summer. Hope that the oil spill gets contained soon!
PUHLEEZE, everybody. The word “it’s” means “it is”. The possessive of “it” is “its”. NO apostrophe.
Everyone posting here is intelligent and should be able to get that right!!
IanM
Richard M
This has central Pacific OHC data updated weekly:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
This is linked from the page
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
Well, whatever happens with this year’s fall/winter season, remember that it is always consistent with global warming theory. Hot, cold, rain, drought – it’s all explained by global warming!
there are plenty of lizards in V thay should have some mad scientists in the plot maybe Al Gore might become a V world spocksmen on climate change. I don’t the V lizards will fall for that
Ian L. McQueen says:
May 13, 2010 at 8:27 pm
PUHLEEZE, everybody. The word “it’s” means “it is”. The possessive of “it” is “its”. NO apostrophe.
Everyone posting here is intelligent and should be able to get that right!!>>
It remains my position that the amount of time people spend complaining about this issue is completely out of proportion to itz value. That is why I am calling for the replacement of both it’s and its with itz.
I also dispute your assertion that everyong on this blog is intelligent. Itz obvious from my posts if not others that this isn’t true.
Dont forget cold and snow are all caused by Al Gore and global warming!
Solar flux of the sun is back down to 69 – ouch – get those contingency plans going!
ENSO is based on 3 month averages. We saw this before during transitions. As long as the 3 month average is above .5 then El Nino still exists. A 3 month average below .5 is ENSO neutral until there is a 3 month average below -.5 which becomes a La Nina. According to NOAA!
Natural variations exist on all time scales and can only form a trend in retrospect. The model projection are as worthless as= (Pick your favorite)
Frank K. says
May 13, 2010 at 8:32 pm.
That’s why it’s called “Climate Change” now.. even if the world heads into another LIA, it’ll be explained as being caused by humans.
viscous = thick and gelatinous liquid
vicious = nasty, depraved
Northern winters and hurricanes can be described as the latter, not the former.
When I was young and learning about such things ( 55 years ago).
It is = it’s
It in plural = its
It in ownership = its’
and if you need a ‘ to determine which is which, you must be dumber then a fence post.
Why are they using two shades of purple for the high temperature and low temperature anomaly? That could lead to misinterpretation …
Ian L. McQueen says:
“PUHLEEZE, everybody. The word ‘it’s means ‘it is’. The possessive of ‘it’ is ‘its’. NO apostrophe.”
Agree, Ian. But it’s an uphill battle.
Maybe this will help.
In their April 7 seasonal hurricane forecast, Klotzbach and Gray predicted 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes based to a large extent on the dissipating El Nino and anomalous warming of the tropical Atlantic. Their next forecast comes out June 4. I’m sure we’ll see further adjustments.
I’m interviewing Phil Klotzbach on Monday for my next Examiner.com column and will share his thoughts.
90 day SOI climbing, 30 day faltering
If this is the settling in period for the cold PDO and cooling La Ninas will be prevalent then how cold is it going to get? And we have Katla rumbling away as well!
Ian L. McQueen says:
May 13, 2010 at 8:27 pm
PUHLEEZE, everybody. The word “it’s” means “it is”. The possessive of “it” is “its”. NO apostrophe.
That’s what I said about “cancelled” last year, only to discover the rules of the English language had been re-written in order to accommodate the ignorant. After that incident here, I decided to appeal the 1985 decision by my local grade school to disqualify me from the school spelling be for spelling it with two “L’s” (yes, I really missed that word). Unfortunately, the statute of limitations expired in 1986. There is no justice in this world.
Back to the subject, I’ll take D’Aleo’s assessment (Can I use two apostropes in the same word?) over anyone else’s.
Reply: It’s spelling bee. ~ ctm
Enter Bob (Iv’e got a graph for that) Tisdale in 3..2..1..
How long will it remain neutral?