Bloomberg: U.S. Northeast May Have Coldest Winter in a Decade
By Todd Zeranski and Erik Schatzker
Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. Northeast may have the coldest winter in a decade because of a weak El Nino, a warming current in the Pacific Ocean, according to Matt Rogers, a forecaster at Commodity Weather Group.
“Weak El Ninos are notorious for cold and snowy weather on the Eastern seaboard,” Rogers said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Washington. “About 70 percent to 75 percent of the time a weak El Nino will deliver the goods in terms of above-normal heating demand and cold weather. It’s pretty good odds.”
Warming in the Pacific often means fewer Atlantic hurricanes and higher temperatures in the U.S. Northeast during January, February and March, according to the National Weather Service. El Nino occurs every two to five years, on average, and lasts about 12 months, according to the service.
Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long positions, or bets prices will rise, in New York heating oil futures in the week ended Sep. 22, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data Sept. 25.
“It could be one of the coldest winters, or the coldest, winter of the decade,” Rogers said.
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Gaia loves truth, honesty, and accuracy! You go, girl!
1976-77, 1977-78 and 2002-03 come to mind of a weak El Nino (02-03 did go moderate for a time) leading to a cold winter. However, there are a number of other factors that need to line up besides the equatorial Pacific.
My prediction: no matter how cold it gets in Northeast USA it will be reported as the ?th warmest on record.
The August PDO index went barely positive (0.09) after 23 months in negative mode. El Niño seems to be less than robust. The Sun seems unable to generate much in the way of sunspots, relevant or not. The hurricane season, while not over, seems never to have gotten underway. Ice on the Arctic Ocean is forming, not melting. Antarctic area ice is at a recent high. Along with the above, another thing I’m watching is the snow level in the Cascade Mountains – down to 4,000 feet (~1220 meters) today. Oh, and the trees I see through my window – Larches, actually – and they are turning golden and about to shed on my lawn. The only thing I know for sure about all this is . . . . . . I’ll get back to you, maybe.
The 2006-07 El Nino was of similar strength and produced nearly the warmest beginning to winter ever recorded in the US. Here in New York we were planting bulbs and performing general landscaping well into December and January 9th was one of the warmest on record in the Northeast. Many all-time monthly max temperature records fell that day. Additionally, the ground had yet to freeze until January 13th of that winter and the lake across the street from our house didn’t freeze over until the 16th! February turned around to be quite chilly, 14th coldest on record in the Northeast, but the winter as a whole was about 3°F above normal.
The winter on 2004-05 wasn’t particularly cold either. There were two notable cold snaps in January but that winter also ended slightly above the long term mean.
Weak El Nino also struck in the winter of 1951-52 and that was also a top ten warmest for the winter season in the Northeast. Much of that winter was spent 3-5 degrees above normal AND that was during a -PDO.
There are examples, however, of very cold winters occurring during a weak El Nino winter, notably the winters of 1963-64 and 1968-69. December of 1963 was one of the coldest months on record for the nation as a whole with an arctic outbreak of air rivaling that of the extreme cold of February 1899. In each of those winters of the 60’s there was a strong blocking pattern over the North Atlantic corresponding to a -NAO, especially so in December at the start of meteorological winter.
The winters of 1951-52, 2004-05, and 2006-07 all had +NAO indices during the month of December.
Of course, all this is moot is El Nino doesn’t behave as NOAA expects, which I feel it won’t.
NOAA has been calling for an intensification of El Nino to moderate strength. This has been a point of contention for me since NOAA made the announcement a couple months back. I expect a continuation of weak El Nino into early December where we may eventually trend back towards an ENSO neutral state across the Pacific.
The 30-day and 90-day running mean of the SOI index has been in positive territory for almost a full month. SST anomalies have leveled off since late summer across the ENSO regions (dropping markedly, however, in region 1.2, though this region does have the most variability) and we’ve yet to transition into a high atmospheric angular momentum pattern, as measured by the WB2009 GWO. Additionally, sub-surface anomaly data provided by TAO buoy array shows an atypical slope to the thermocline to what one would expect if El Nino was intensifying.
The preliminary OI.v2 September 2009 SST data was published on Monday. I posted some results shortly thereafter.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/09/preliminary-september-2009-sst.html
NINO3.4 SST anomalies are still in the 0.8 to 0.9 deg C range where they’ve been for a few months. Northern and Southern Hemisphere and global SST anomalies have dropped approximately 0.03 deg C since last month.
ENSO Wrap-Up
CURRENT STATUS as at 30th September 2009
Next update expected by 14th October 2009 (two weeks after this update).
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
I will make my forecast for the 2009/10 winter on 1st March 2010…
In the meantimne has anyone got a scientifc handle on what all this may mean for Europe in general and the UK in particular this coming winter?
tonyb
Here in Kansas temps. have been below normal for most days this month, in fact we’re supposed to start off October with most days in the 60’s. If NOAA announced this was the warmest September ever, the heat sure wouldn’t have been over here.
The El Nino continues to fail developing and continues to fail getting all systems to fall in line with a typical El Nino event, according to Unisys most SH anomalies on the warm side are weak and the only stronger ones for the most part are in the Northern Hemisphere. Assuming Tallbloke is correct and we’re seeing the ocean batteries continuing to drain then we should see the anomalies drop off before long, though I’d wait for his opinion.
“There are examples, however, of very cold winters occurring during a weak El Nino winter, notably the winters of 1963-64 and 1968-69. December of 1963 was one of the coldest months on record for the nation as a whole with an arctic outbreak of air rivaling that of the extreme cold of February 1899. In each of those winters of the 60’s there was a strong blocking pattern over the North Atlantic corresponding to a -NAO, especially so in December at the start of meteorological winter.”
So basically-back when winters were cold-a weak El Nino gave us cold winters. Now that winters are warm-a weak El Nino gives us warrm winters. Is that it?
TonyB:
Very wise not to predict this winter in the UK. Unlike the MetOffice which said today that they expect it to be mild. Maybe they think El Nino will give them the odds.
I am not wise enough to keep my neck covered but I am not guessing from statistics. After the jetstream shifted in 2007 and we got a wet summer and the Met predicted a normal summer, I predicted that 2008 would be the same – unless the jetstream changed, it didn’t and it was. Under a bit of prodding the MetOffice finally looked at the jetstream, but predicted a mild winter – it wasn’t. I predicted that at some point the winters would shift to cold and clear – maybe 2008/2009. I was right. I also expected another wet summer – the MetOffice said it would be a barbie. I was right again.
So – how come I, a mere ecologist, generalistic policy analyst can get so much right, and the supercomputing meteorologists get so much wrong? I think it will be another cold winter, maybe colder than last (the coldest in 20 years), maybe the coldest in 40 years….
I read the signs, as well as the papers. In the past two years the normal low pressure systems centred over Iceland have been replaced by mobile polar high pressure cells that seem to originate in Canada and move eastwards to Greenland and Iceland, then leap the Norwegian Sea to settle for a while over Scandinavia and head off into Siberia. The normal high pressure over the Azores is now interspersed with low pressure cells and they seem to track due East into Iberia rather than looping up over the UK and into Norway (as pre-2007). We seem to be in the middle of a phase-shift and the pattern is not settled yet.
When the anti-cyclone is over Greenland, we get cold clear air coming from the north to the western Atlantic seaboard instead of warmer south-westerlies. When it moves over Scandinavia, we get the updraft of continental air coming in from the south-east. In the summer, this updraft is warm and dry, but in the winter, it will be cold and snow-laden. Right now we have had a couple of weeks of this warm dry air from the old polar high. Now a new polar high is over Greenland again and the northerly winds will set in bringing cool but dry air and autumn sunshine. These highs move slowly and can settle for weeks.
So – over this winter – I expect this pattern to persist – many weeks of dry and very cold weather, interspersed with cool and moist conditions at times, with the potential for severe snow storms from the east.
Actually, there is one more factor. This shift is marked by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index and this seems to coincide with periods of warm water build-up in the upper ocean waters. This warm water gets trapped in the north-atlantic gyre and the Hadley maps have shown this area as ‘red’ anomaly of Sea Surface Temperature for two or more decades. Now it is going ‘blue’. This means to me that the upper ocean heat store has been depleted – and it was this and the westerly prevailing winds that kept western Europe so warm between 1977-2007.
With that heat all-but gone either this year or next, I expect future winters to be much colder and summers to be cool and cloudy with less rain. I suspect that behind-the-scenes in the MetOffice, the supercomputers agree with me, because they have a short-range modelling team (to 2030) that gets no publicity (though it does publish in the peer-reviewed lit) compared to the long-range team’s projections to 2050 or 2080 (median projections to 2080 is 4 C warming).
I have complained that people such as I, who advise land-use planners, need to know more about the next 25 years, than the 25 or 50 following them – but to little avail. That’s because the MetOffice is an arm of government, of course – and answers to the Ministry of Defence.
Anthony,
The headline is completely wrong.
It should read:
“Near record setting warm winter for the US-Northeast predicted. Could be 10th warmest of this millenium”.
TonyB (07:46:10) :
In the meantime has anyone got a scientifc handle on what all this may mean for Europe in general and the UK in particular this coming winter?
Not scientific but ENSO would of course have an effect everywhere. However it would probably be better to look at the Atlantic. I did a plot some time back matching AMO and England temps. It’s a bit old and a bit rough but there isn’t a strong correlation. Latest is AMO down from .282 to .205 and I think it will fall lower this month.
http://i599.photobucket.com/albums/tt74/MartinGAtkins/AMO-Eng.jpg
I think while everyone’s busy beating the warmists to death with the Hockey Stick I’ll see what NAO and AO look like. I’ll post them tomorrow.
Seeing Peter Taylor’s comment and the fact the Sun is going back to sleep after those spots, I wouldn’t discount the predictions made by those such as the Farmer’s Almanac, which don’t use CO2 as a factor, who predict a very cold Winter.
In fact the Farmer’s almanac predicted an early freeze or even deep freeze for parts of the northern midwest at the end of this month as a precursor to their predicted bitter cold Winter, looked at Unisys’ low temperature contour and to an extent were right.
Peter Taylor
I agree with you that Uk and Europe are heading for a cooler winter than last year and for several decades to come . The Winter NAO and the AMO are both trending to the negative in their current trend and they are both major players shaping Europe’s winter climate . The period 1962-1987 was a similar cooler period for Europe. AMO went negative in 1964 and was negative or cool for 23 of the 26 cooler years . Winter NAO was negative for 14 years in this period . The warmer winters were when NAO was positive[like 1973-1976 and 1982-1984]. Europe had a brief taste of this cooler winter earlier this year when AMO and winter NAO were both negative.
MARTIN G.ATKINS
MARTIN, if you plot winter NAO, AMO and winter European temperatures , the pattern will be more evident. If you need sources for the data let me know
Peter Taylor
Piers Corbyn had better look to his laurels now you have taken up forecasting… Last year the trees turned at much the same time as this year and I forecast (in advance!) a cold winter in our local paper and substantially upgraded our house insulation.
This year I have not had such a clear indication of what will happen during the winter, but am inclined to think it will be cooler than (recent) normal-but whether it will be colder than last year we will see.
I am hoping for severe snowstorms grounding all flights to Copenhagen in December…
MartinGAtkins
Interesting graph. as you say there doesn’t seem to be a lot of correlation. Look forward to your update.
tonyb
I recently listened to a dialogue on BBC NEWS between Dr Vicki Pope of the Met Office and Emeritus Prof. Phillip Stott of London University discussing the recent global cooling prediction of 1-2 decades by Dr M. Latif of Germany
http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_8258000/8258459.stm
What was of interest to me was that Dr. Pope clearly denied that there would be cooling during the next decade. She said that they [the Met Office] had also done predictions and that it would get warmer during the next decade and that over the long term it would get warmer due to global warming. She said that their models used data for conditions below the ocean surface as well and that their model had been tested and they have reproduced past climates using actual past records.She said that their model was more realistic than the model used by Latif’s German model who uses ocean surface data only.
She did say that she accepts the possibility of a decade or 10 years of temperatures levelling off or small amount of cooling.[ presumably not next decade?]
She also said that any accelerated warming or cooling was the result of natural effects [natural variability]
It would appear to me that she and the Met Office seem to be changing the AGW argument by 180 degrees. IPCC said that the unprecedented and accelerated warming of the last 30 years was the problem caused primarily by man [most temperature records were set here ]and that this warming would accelerate for 100 years or more. In other words They said that this 30 year temporary warming was caused by man and not due to natural variability. Dr Pope seems to be saying that the long term trend of the last 150 years is the real global warming. Since the last accelerated warming only lasted for about 12 years1994-2006, a relatively short period , Is she saying that the recent accelerated warming then is due to natural causes? If so it is a major change and a new shift in the climate debate by the AGW camp.
I personally disagree with the forecast of the Met Office especially for the next several decades. They are predicting now a temperature rise of 4 C by 2060. It seems to me that there is more political manoeuvring prior to Copenhagen here than science.
matt
UHN is an ETN that you can trade in any stock account. It holds options contracts on Heating Oil. UHN popped 5.9% today. Looks like a decent bottom is in, today was the bottom of a “dip” and it popped on oil inventory news (comes out Wednesdays in non-holiday weeks).
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=uhn&time=&freq=
ought to get you a chart of it as long as wordpress didn’t choke on the special characters in the link.
E.M.Smith (16:30:57) :
ought to get you a chart of it as long as wordpress didn’t choke on the special characters in the link.
The problem with only looking at one year graph like that is that you can’t know if the raised volume indicates a bottom or if it’s a seasonal signal.
I won’t dwell on this subject because technical analysis of financial derivatives are not the brief of this web site.
She said that their model was more realistic than the model used by Latif’s German model who uses ocean surface data only.
Professor Philip Stott answered the way a good scientist should when the subject has many confounding variables.
Asked (by inference) if he thought the climate would get warmer or colder he replied.
“Well I think importantly John we don’t know.”
Dr. Vicky Pope when asked the same thing makes the blindingly stupid reply. (in part)
“We do agree that over the long term it will continue
warm due to global warming.”
Brilliant observation. What she couldn’t bring her self to say is warming will continue because of CO2 levels.
This is because it would expose the nefarious nature of the Met office’s outlandish predictions based on their models.
>>December of 1963 was one of the coldest months on record
>>for the nation as a whole with an arctic outbreak of air rivaling
>>that of the extreme cold of February 1899.
Strange. In the UK, it was the winter of 62-63 that broke all the records. Does that equate with an El Nino too?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_1962–1963
.
We are frequently told that this is a “weak El Nino” – but the day-to-day UAH satellite temperatures for 2009 are consistantly warmer (by about a 1/4 degree!) than the comparable date in the “Super El Nino” year of 1998.
So, why was that a super El Nino, but warmer temp’s this year only define a “weak, short lived” El Nino? Anything else change, or are we measuring two different phenomona?
Ralph
I don’t think it had anything to do with the ElNino of 1963. During December 1963 both the AMO and Winter NAO were both negative or cool . Amo had gone cool or negative already in MAY and had been cooling since its peaks in 1937/1944 . It went negative in july 1964 for the next 30 years .The 1960’s had the most cold or negative NAO winters on record. Seven of the 10 winters of the 1960’s had negative Nao. The winter 1963 NAO was -4.89 which is the lowest winter record[for 3months] . It went -5.1 in Jan/64[1month].
Personally i think we are in a similar period now with both the AMO and WINTER NAO trending cooler now for many years.
Ralph
It was not just Uk that had cold winter in the period 1962-1963. Atlantic Coast and the Great Lakes Area of Canada which are also affected by AMO and NAO had cold winters . 1963 Winter was the 4th coldest ever out of the last 61 years for the Great LAKESand St Lawrence area in Canada. The winter of 1962 was the 20th coldest for the Atlantic region. I have checked the US RECORDS for their winters and 1963 winter was the 21 coldest ever out of 114 years . So it was cold for many areas and not just UK
AMO and NAO are the prime climate makers for our Eastern Coast. I think the coooler winter expected along the Eastern North America will be due to the expected negative NAO and AMO this winter. A weak EL Nino has very little to do with this in my opinion.