Met Office forecasting ability questioned by the Beeb.

Not only does the Met Office/Hadley Climate Center have trouble with pesky “moles” this week, they are now finding a staunch ally, the BBC, is questioning their forecasting ability. One wonders if they will improve using “deep black”, the 1.2 megawatt supercomputer they just purchased.

Met Office cools summer forecast

By Roger Harrabin
BBC environment analyst

excerpts:

You will need a brolly on holiday in the UK in August – the Met Office is issuing a revised forecast for more unsettled weather well into the month.

It is a far cry from the “barbecue summer” it predicted back in April.

The news will raise questions about the Met Office’s ability to make reliable seasonal forecasts.

It did indeed stress at the time of the summer forecast in April that the odds of a scorching summer were 65%. It explains that it coined the phrase “barbecue summer” to help journalists’ headlines.

But this has come back to bite the organisation because many people do not feel like they have been enjoying a “good” summer, especially compared with previous searing years.

Jet stream

Some now ask if the Met Office risks its reputation by attempting to popularise its work this way.

The real problem for the Met Office is that this is the third summer in a row where its forecast has failed. In 2007, the Met Office chirped: “The summer is yet again likely to be warmer than normal. There are no indications of a particularly wet summer.”

We got downpours and floods in the wettest summer for England and Wales since 1912. Temperatures were below average.

In April 2008, the Met Office forecast: “Summer temperatures are likely to be warmer than average and rainfall near or above average.”

That did not prepare people for one of the wettest summers on record with high winds and low sunshine.

In both instances, the Met Office failed to predict the movements of the jet stream – the high-level wind that races round the world 10km above the surface.

read the entire article at the BBC here

h/t to WUWT reader Kristinn

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87 Responses to Met Office forecasting ability questioned by the Beeb.

  1. Michael I says:

    If they keep on making the same prediction they must get it right eventually but it may take a while.

  2. David says:

    Better get a cache before they pull it down. Or was the the Telegraph in the Gore/Nazi incident? Anyhow, I would cache before you post from now on, just to keep yourself from getting burned again. That was horsestuff.

  3. Neo says:

    Even a stopped clock is right twice a day

  4. Hvordan says:

    Maybe the mole is feeding them bad forecasts?

  5. Rick says:

    Hey – isn’t Watts a weather forcaster? – anyway yeah – long term forcasts are pretty pointless. The weather channel has these 14 day forcasts up here – totally meaningless – even 5 days is really pushing it.

  6. Jeff L says:

    From the article, & private forecaster, Piers Corbyn :

    “He claims his solar-based forecasting method is consistently more accurate for medium-term predictions than the Met Office, and he urges them to give up medium-term forecasting.”

    Imagine that, a solar-based forecasting method…..who would of thunk it ???
    /sarc off

    It does illustrate those with a closed mind on forcing mechanisms (ie – it’s all CO2) will ultimately do nothing to advance the science of forecasting.

  7. henrychance says:

    Superstition forecasts.
    Let’s rename the the portentious entrails reading augurs. Who needs data?

  8. Barry Foster says:

    The BBC’s Radio 4 programme, ‘PM’ is also apparently running an item on this too – this week. It airs 17.00 – 18.00 daily.

  9. That’s what they get for public prognostication!

  10. Cassandra King says:

    This is the crux of the problem with any institution that ties itself/sells out to a political narrative.
    The political narrative comes first, any deviation from the narrative becomes impossible, the narrative must be served and if that means lying and/or manipulating the data then so be it.
    A political narrative in the form of global warming becomes a hard wired code in the ‘machine’, the data is put through a computer program devised to churn out ‘evidence’ of global warming(AGW/MMCC) and when the lying begins its almost impossible to stop without a root and branch reform, lying becomes the norm because you have to lie to cover up the original lie and so on.
    The met office accepts fully the theory of AGW/MMCC so any evidence of that theory being wrong must lead to a covering up of that evidence, a cycle of self deception perpetuates itself, this was very common in the USSR where the political narrative was supreme regardless of the actual facts and truth, upto the fall of the USSR the party line was followed doggedly, they could not admit the truth and reality.
    When will we learn that the actual real world and natural events cannot and never will be made to fit a political narrative, science cannot be made to serve a political master and still remain science, it becomes little better than alchemy or astrology.
    What we are seeing is the result of a quasi religious/political doctrine taking precedence over reality, when will we learn that it doesnt work, it didnt work in Maos China and the USSR and it wont work now, yet still the political classes try it.

  11. John F. Hultquist says:

    Lady calls to get a weather prediction from the Met Office

    MET Office: Super Duper Climate Center. Can I help you?

    Lady: Yes, I’m planning a party and need to know about the weather.

    MET: When?

    Lady: When? Well, right now.

    MET: Well, just looking out the window – now it’s sunny.

    Lady: Not now. Later. . .

    MET: You said now

    Lady: I didn’t mean now

    MET: Well then, call back when you need it. ‘click’

  12. Steve J says:

    Good for the BBC. These forecasts need to be assessed more often whether it’s in the UK, US, or anywhere else. I feel they have little, if any, predictive value, but I haven’t been able to analyze that myself. May have to take a closer look at that this year. Can’t wait for NOAA’s annual winter outlook. Of course, maybe these outlooks are done purely for public consumption, but it would be nice if they were based on something and contained a hint of value.

  13. Nigel S says:

    What’s on the barbecue menu? Spit roasted mole?

  14. Philip_B says:

    I’ll note that Harrabin was one of the worst offenders in peddling alarmist claptrap as science journalism.

    A couple of years ago, he jetted around the world writing pieces on rising sea-levels drowning Thai emples, Bangladeshi villages, Pacific islands, etc, with never the suggestion that tectonic processes may have been the cause.

    If he is losing faith then the Warming religion is in worse shape than I thought.

  15. Tim Groves says:

    More to the point on Piers Corbyn:

    “The Met Office complains in response that Mr Corbyn will not publish his “unique” methods of forecasting.”

    We can all sympathise with how upset they must be feeling about that.

  16. Andrew says:

    Hmmmm….this whole Mole thing has to do with the Met not wanting to release their TOP SECRET data……to quote from the end of the BBC article.

    “The Met Office complains in response that Mr Corbyn will not publish his “unique” methods of forecasting. ”

    Hey Kettle, it’s me the Pot….you’re looking pretty black!

  17. jeez says:

    Piers Corbyn is not publicly funded and his predictions are not being used to guide international policies.

  18. Glenn Rowe says:

    It is interesting to note that the alarmist BBC actually includes a mention of Piers Corbyn without piling abuse on him. However, one quote is a classic:

    “The Met Office complains in response [to Corbyn's criticism of their forecasts] that Mr Corbyn will not publish his “unique” methods of forecasting. ”

    Gosh, you mean he is refusing to release his algorithms and/or data? Well it’s good to know the Met Office has no problems in that area…

  19. Tenuc says:

    I don’t know how the Met think there’s a chance of them getting the long-range forecast right when they can’t even do a good job with the next day forecast in my area. This is a good example of what happens when you try to predict the behavour of a very dynamic chaotic system using inadequet computer models.

  20. Andrew says:

    jeez (22:34:51) :

    Piers Corbyn is not publicly funded and his predictions are not being used to guide international policies.

    I am not sure if you were making a point or simply stating some facts. I would argue that your comments further highlights the hypocrisy of the Met. I trust that was your intent.

  21. Stephen Wilde says:

    Well I got it right for last winter on the basis, primarily, of an assessment based on the obvious fact that the jets were more towards the equator than during the 1975/2000 warming spell.

    However one cuts it the fact is that for any specific region by far the greatest influence on weather and climate is the position of that location in relation to the position of the main air circulation systems.

    Compared to that factor the observed general average change in global temperatures is not discernible.

    Here’s my effort for the coming UK winter:

    “I hate trying to predict because everything could change tomorrow but on the basis of the current climate setup here goes:

    The jets are still well south of us and if that persists into autumn and winter then of course there will be greater influence from cold high pressure over Europe and Greenland.

    The matter of precipitation amounts depends on where the main battleground is between cold and warm air. No two years are the same and last winter was unusual. The cold spells were very immobile. Large chunks of cold air were dumped on us for weeks at a time with little movement and relatively little snow despite a couple of notable falls.

    For the coming winter I think that, instead, we will get more occasions when the battleground is over southern UK or northern France and Germany with more snow over wider areas than we have had for many years. However so much depends on day to day variability of the precise positions of all the weather systems that I realise I am a bit out on a limb there. Nevertheless I think it a higher likelihood than for many years past.

    I’m also unsure what the balance will be between northerly and easterly flows which give very different weather types. The chance of a return to prolonged south westerlies is low but it could happen depending on the synoptic situation over USA.

    Last winter also showed a change from the previous two winters when cold plunges over the USA distorted the jets and gave us persistent warm wet south westerlies so we did not then share in the general slow cooling trend.

    I think that the overall global trend is still moving towards a colder regime but only slowly. The position of the jets in both hemispheres still indicates overall cooling. We seem to be getting increasing cold weather reports in winter in both hemispheres despite the current absence of a strong La Nina so the effect of the previous one seems to be persisting.

    Meanwhile ENSO is less negative than it was but the anticipated EL Nino seems to be stuttering. I would say that overall the rate of cooling in the air will slow down a bit thanks to the extra energy flow into the air from the less negative ENSO but remember that if the sun is weak it will not fully replace the energy lost from ocean to air via the warmer SSTs so there remains a general background loss of energy for the system as a whole.

    So, (gulp!) UK coming winter cooler than recently and likely to further reduce the warming trend of the 1975 to 2000 period. Not necessarily back down to the longer term average but well on the way with an outside chance of a memorable winter.

    More snow than we have been used to in the UK but generally drier than average in the north and wetter than average in the south.

    A lot could happen to change my opinion but that’s where it stands at the moment

  22. Tony Hansen says:

    From the BBC article..”the four day forecast is now as good as the one day forecast was 30 years ago”. Any supporting data for that claim?

    What would be reasonable expectations when it comes to forecasts (of any length) ?

  23. Antonio San says:

    So they were wrong last winter. Now they are wrong again this summer: perhaps they need a trillion pounds hyper computer to get it wrong again?

  24. Manuel says:

    I once heard -I don’t know if it is true- that someone did a study about the accuracy of the UK Met Office forecasts by comparing the outcome of the actual forecasts for the previous years with this simpler one: “Tomorrow will be just like today”. It was discovered that the second was much more acurate. I guess we are still in this same situation.

  25. AndyW35 says:

    Tomorrow will be just like today will be more accurate elsewhere in the world than the UK, I think that is just hearsay.

    On the other hand both the UK medium range forecasting by the Met Office in the UK and also their hurricane forecasting for the Atlantic is, in my opinion poor and as the article states these journalistic phrases they come out with do not help matters.

    Their 3-5 day forecasts are not bad at all now though.

    Regards

    Andy

  26. Pingo says:

    I forecast before the start of summer that we in the UK would be plagued by high levels of rainfall, gloominess, northern blocking and hence a southerly jet. In direct contrast to the Met Office and there’s only one correct forecast at the moment.

    Though I’m starting to worry that my forecast will be correct for August now that the Met Office have agreed with it.

    Bizarre irony in the comment from the Met Office about Piers Corbyn not releasing his data. Aren’t we glad they don’t have to worry about their data being secret any more!

  27. PaulM says:

    There was also an item about this on Newsnight last night where the BBC’s Nick Robinson gave the Met Office forecaster Ewen McCallum a hard time. You can see it with BBC iplayer – it’s near the end of the program.
    Ironically, it follows an item about global warming in Greenland.

  28. Perry Debell says:

    According to an interview on Radio 4 at 07-45 this morning, it was the media which chose to ignore the percentages that accompanied the Met Office April forecast and went for the BBQ weather headline instead. However, that won’t wash because, according to Brian Gould of the Met Office, seasonal forecasting is a difficult thing to do and “this places some limitations on our forecasts.”

    It’s EXPERIMENTAL !Really? Then keep your bleeding traps shut. As for the Met Office complaint that Piers Corbyn will not publish his “unique” methods of forecasting it’s not too suprising as his business is commercial and he sells his forecasts in competition against the Met Office.

    Scott Sabol, Morning Meteorologist at Fox 8 wrote about possible reasons for the cool US summer http://www.fox8.com/wjw-scott-sabol-weather-column7,0,4905013.story and let us hark back to Joe D’Aleo on WUWT in April. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/06/mt-redoubt-eruptions-%E2%80%93-what-effect-if-any-on-the-summer-winter/

    Isn’t it great to have sites such as WUWT, CA, ICECAP, CLIMATE DEPOT, CLIMATE REALISTS & NOT BY FIRE, BUT BY ICE?

  29. Mac says:

    The trouble is these failed winter and summer Met Office seasonal forecasts over the past years have cost lives, put public services at risk and has cost the whole UK economy £billions.

    Heads should roll at the Met Office, heads should roll.

  30. John A says:

    I watched a program a few years back where Piers faced his opposition at the Met Office and they were dripping with sarcasm. One thing though, Piers tends to get much better forecasts with his solar magnetic method than the Met Office.

    They did complain that they didn’t know the details of his method, but since they were completely convinced that the Sun played in an insignificant role in the Earth’s climate and that carbon dioxide was the main driver, they weren’t too bothered to be gracious about asking.

    The wheels are starting to come off the AGW gravy train. I wouldn’t stand too close if I were you…

  31. stephen.richards says:

    Remember, this is the Haribin of Haribin and Black. These have lied, exgarrated and abused to get to where they are now, The BBC environment lobby.

    The BBC hasn’t changed anything, garaunteed. They are still firmly in the AGW camp. This is probably a politcal effort to deflect critism from themselves

  32. Allan M says:

    “Some now ask if the Met Office risks its reputation by attempting to popularise its work this way.”

    The Met Office would have a better reputation if they were invisible to the public! They are an ever more expensive joke.
    —-

    Tony Hansen (22:58:09) :

    “From the BBC article..”the four day forecast is now as good as the one day forecast was 30 years ago”. Any supporting data for that claim?”

    Last October, I printed out the 5 day forecasts for my area for the whole month. Then I went through counting the number of times they changed one of the 4 overlapping days. The result was ~2½ to 3 ( I haven’t kept them).

    Having had several tries at each day, I bet they count the number of days correctly forecasted, and not the number of correct forecasts.

  33. Henry Galt says:

    One of the guys here works with Piers. Even he didn’t know, or remember (we are of a generation and I remember it) that Piers, when he was younger, used to picket meteorological society meetings and attempt to give the members his system for the common good. He used to travel abroad, at his own expense, to try to enlighten them. He also attempted, via his MP brother, to give the system to HM government. Care to guess how he was treated?

  34. Alan the Brit says:

    “Double, double, toil & trouble, fire burn & cauldron bubble”. Eye of newt & leg of toad, add some spit & bring to boil, simmer for 20 minutes & serve!

    Sea Weed damp, crystal ball dark & cloudy, any thoughts?

  35. Ian B says:

    Well, I’m on holiday in north east England during the 2nd week of August. I’m not sure whether this is bad news (that further mediocre weather is forecast) or good (in that the recent Met Office predictions tend to be the opposite of what happens).

    Based on recent form, I’m predicting unbroken sunshine and mid 20s deg C.

  36. Telboy says:

    I have nothing but respect for Stephen Wilde who has offered his predictions for the coming winter’s weather in such a measured and sensible way. I look forward ( if that’s the right phrase) to his being proved right. My personal method of weather forecasting consists of a piece of string nailed to the back door which is not much good for long range forecasts but is 100% accurate at recording weather. If it’s wet, it’s raining, if it’s stiff, it’s cold, if you can’t see it, it’s foggy (or night-time) and if it’s horizontal it’s windy.

  37. jeez says:

    Andrew (22:54:14)

    I misread you first time through. My apologies.

  38. Robinson says:

    More snow than we have been used to in the UK but generally drier than average in the north and wetter than average in the south.

    Yey! Snowballs!

  39. Pierre Gosselin says:

    Perhaps the Met Office thinks if the computer is big enough, then nature will begin to obey it (i.e. the modelers).
    Like: “We’ve got the biggest computer, and so dare not dispute it!”

  40. Chris Wright says:

    Just after the Met Office released its forecast of a hot, dry summer I wrote at CA that people should keep their winter woolies handy and maybe buy an umbrella. Apart from a warm period at the end of June that was a moderate heat wave, it’s been cool and very wet. The Met is now saying this unsettled weather will extend into August.

    It’s often claimed that the climate models are somehow a proof of AGW. I think the opposite is true. These seasonal forecasts must be generated by their climate models which are based on the AGW assumption. If the models repeatedly forecast higher temperatures than the actual, as they seem to be doing, then this would appear to be evidence that the underlying assumption, ie AGW, is itself wrong. In other words, quite possibly the climate models are a strong proof *against* AGW.

    In September the Met forecast a warmer than average winter. Within weeks there was snow in London, the first October snow there for 70 years. Ironically there was snow in London when Parliament voted for the Climate Change Bill, though no doubt the irony was lost on the gullible fools who voted for this nonsense. I’ll be interested to see the Met’s prediction for the coming winter. If the winter is like the last one then I definitely will need my winter woolies!
    Chris

  41. Mike Borgelt says:

    Back when I was an operational weather forecaster it was the perceived wisdom that seasonal forecasts were simply not possible. What changed? Only the unwarranted faith in GCMs. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. They are simply integrating random noise and the output is a random walk and any resemblance to reality is coincidental.

  42. Rhys Jaggar says:

    Here’s a UK climate analysis from an unqualified human being.

    Broadly speaking, summers were warmer from 1975 to 2005 and winters considerably milder from 1988 onwards.

    Since about 2005, the summers are much less hot, although we get the odd burst of heat and last winter was the first cold one for a while. Snow on the summit of Scotland’s highest mountain looked much more like normal at Easter this year, after a few years where there were stones on the top.

    My prediction: we’ll get the odd hot summer, the odd cold winter, but summers will cool somewhat and winters also.

    If there is a catastrophic increase in flooding it is due to the lack of dredging of watercourses, allied to building houses too close to flood plains.

    There is also a clear picture of snow coming earlier to the Alps again, typical of the pre-1975 period which was painted as ‘normal’ in the late 1970s ski-ing boom. The fact that the next 20 years were typical of warm PDO not cool PDO is neither here nor there!

    So I wouldn’t predict an imminent end to the ski-ing industry either, although the rampant building of chalets in popular resorts has brought a decided UHI effect to a few places………

    I do predict an increased understanding of the inter-relationships of global climate triggers, though, which may lead in time to more cautious forecasts and, perhaps, more accurate ones.

    Only my opinion of course.

  43. Archonix says:

    Tony Hansen (22:58:09) :

    From the BBC article..”the four day forecast is now as good as the one day forecast was 30 years ago”. Any supporting data for that claim?

    Considering the one day forecast 30 years ago pretty much consisted of looking out the window and then telling the country about it…

  44. UK Sceptic says:

    Wow! Is this a result of the HADmole/Steve Mac thing?

    http://uk.news.yahoo.com/4/20090729/tuk-u-turn-on-barbecue-summer-dba1618.html

    Such candid honesty is unprecedented. Damn, I’m almost impressed.

    :D

  45. TonyB says:

    Anyone want to contribute to a more reliable weather forecasting system for the Met office? Details here.

    http://www.firebox.com/newsletter/firebox_newsletter_259.html?itc=178&src_t=nwt&src_id=259

    Alternatively I live by the sea just a few miles from their Exeter HQ. I could deliver a piece of sea weed to them with an appropriate message from admiring WUWT bloggers.

    Tonyb

  46. Tony Hansen says:

    Allan M (01:37:03) re the number of correct forecasts vs the number of forecasts.
    Thanks for the reply. And if 4 days out ‘it is fairly wet’ and 2 days out it is ‘fairly fine’ they will claim they were ‘fairly right’ however it might be on the day.
    Is there a cure for such depths of cynicism?

  47. Juraj V. says:

    Just follow the AMO index. If it stays neutral, you will get the same winter as 2008/09. If it goes negative, enjoy frozen Thames again.

  48. Mike Nicholson says:

    I think we better get those BBQ’s out and ready for action this weekend. The lunchtime news just broadcast here in the UK have announced that the Met Office have revised the summer forecast and we are now to expect a rainy August. On that basis, I’m getting my factor 15 sunscreen ready for action !!
    Seriously though, it only seems like recently that the Met Office has decided that it would be a good idea to give us ridiculously long term forecasts. That used to be left to well intentioned amateur meteorologists watching clouds and reading wet seaweed, and I also seem to recall that the Met Office always issued a caution to anyone giving these amateur forecasts too much credibility. Whereas now, it’s the Met Office that seems to have lost it’s own credibility. Meteorology always seemed to me to be a perfect blend of science, art and a little black magic, where ” certainties” fail to exist. Perhaps the Met Office might realise this for themselves and be a little restrained in their certainties of future forecasts

  49. Peter Taylor says:

    On Piers Corbyn – he kindly sent me freely his normally paid-for monthly service and I found it remarkably accurate and useful – but when I wanted to go deeper into the methods, in order to better understand solar-terrestrial science, he declined for commercial reasons and I had to accept that. Its a shame, of course, because he could teach us all a great deal.

    On the Met-Office – when it was obvious to me in 2008 that we in the UK were getting a repeat of 2007’s summer, I spent three weeks of phone calls and messages trying to find out whether they were tracking the jetstream. My own interest was in any analysis of historic patterns – particularly in relation to ocean cycles such as the PDO and AMO (rather than ENSO). Eventually they admitted they had no-one working on it and referred me to a US aviation website! I wrote recommending they look more closely at the patterns and refer to work at NASA on how the jetstream shifts southward under the influence of low solar magnetic status (as we have now). This pattern was most marked during the Maunder Minimum.

    I also suggested to them that very cold winters could return but they forecast a warm 2008/2009 winter and of course the fabled warm summer – right now the western regions have suffered three solid weeks of rain, cold and drizzle.

    The reason is that the MetOffice is not a scientific establishment. It answers to the Minister for Defence. It is essentially political. Of course, scientists work there – as they do in all branches of the military – but they are not free to speak their minds. Many do know that the globe will cool in the next decade or more – and due to the shifting AMO/PDO as much as to any solar effects. They have a mid-range modelling team that is taking on board the revision of upper ocean heat content (200%) and its implications for future projections, as well as the faulty assessment of the driving force behind the 1945-1978 ‘trough’ – now known to be primarily natural, and the work of Keenlyside as well as their own oceanographers, on ocean cycles. This group of scientists knows perfectly well there will be cooling ahead, but even if they wanted to, they could not join a public debate. Government has decided to publish only the long-range 2050-2080 model – and see no need to concern themselves with shorter term ‘variability’ – especially not before the meeting in Copenhagen.

    So many commentators like to denigrate the AGW science as quasi-religious dogma. I would recommend Mike Hulme’s book ‘Why we disagree about climate change’ to anyone on either side of the debate, as it gives a very good social perspective on the climate science (Hulme was director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change at UEA – one of the top centres worldwide). Its ironic that people who point their finger, can’t see the mote in their own eye – the above denigration of alchemists and astrologers is becoming a standard throw-away line. It betrays ignorance and the same tendency to simply repeat prejudice that we accuse the AGW camp of. Newton, Galileo and Kepler were astrologers as well as astronomers of renown. All founding members of the Royal Society were alchemists. So please, a little reflection! These great minds were interested in the nature not just of physics, but also of consciousness itself. Alchemy was a coded process of consciousness training based on the kaballa and Egyptian texts – it was disguised as chemistry because to practice openly would have meant loss of status at best, execution at worst. Western and vedic/eastern Astrology are part of only three systematic approaches to mapping the incarnation of individual consciousness (the others two are Chinese and Mayan). So before they are slagged off as the territory of delusion, perhaps a little reflection on where else there exists any kind of mapping in relation to incarnating consciousness – or is it justified to have a knee-jerk dismissive popular-science reaction, just like the AGWers! When Newton was challenged on his practice, his response was ‘I, sir, have studied it, whereas you have not’.

    And further – the one intelligent mind to have predicted a) the ramping down of the sunspot cycles after 1990; b) the record ENSO of 1998 and the predominance of La NIna thereafter; c) 2007 as the year when global cooling would become obvious and not masked by ENSO; the low status of cycle 24 and 85% chance of another Maunder type minimum (15% for Dalton-type) by 2030…..was Theodor Landscheidt (2003 paper in Energy & Environment)…..who gets continually brushed aside and not credited because he was also an astrologer. His 1989 book, Earth-Sun-Man contains nothing but physical science and statistics in relation to the solar system, but because his system of prediction relies on the relation of the giant planets to the sun, he gets dismissed!

  50. PMT says:

    I find it interesting that Philip Eden is quoted and there is an audio clip of him on BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme. Up till a couple of years ago Mr Eden seemed to be the ever present weatherman on BBC Radio 5, so he must have at the time worked for the Met Office. I used to find his discussions with Peter Allen, a curmudgeonly news presenter, and seemingly as skeptical of AGW as the BBC would allow, refeshingly open. Despite Mr Allen’s best effforts Mr Eden was never heard to be either pro or anti AGW, always describing the current newsworthy weather event in terms of the prevailing meteorological conditions and in context with the historical record.
    I note he now has a couple of websites, he’s obviously a meteorologist to his bones:-
    http://www.weather-uk.com/
    http://www.climate-uk.com/

  51. Retired Engineer says:

    “a 1.2 megawatt supercomputer” ? Huh? ENIAC and SAGE probably used that much power, with less computing ability than a cell phone. Maybe that’s why they predict warm weather? Sitting near the exhaust fan?

    “Mighty warm today, George.”

    Not sure I’d brag about how much power my computer used. Some Greenie might take an axde to the power line. Killing two birds with one stone, so to speak.

  52. Paul Hanlon says:

    There’s a chap in New Zealand called Ken Ring who did a lot of studying into the cycles of the moon. I heard him on the radio here in Ireland and both his short and long term predictions were very accurate. He also wrote a book that he distributes freely through his website in PDF form. It was an easy but phenomenal read. His predictions two years ago for Ireland was rainy Summers and mild Winters until 2010-11. So far he’s been bang on.

  53. NoAstronomer says:

    Coming up … people everywhere are questioning the BBC’s ability to provide the population with anything that could conceivably be called news – ‘news’ as in ‘not already obvious to everyone who is not deaf, dumb and blind’.

  54. Andrew says:

    jeez (02:14:07), it’s cool. I am glad I attempted to be somewhat polite in my response (the new meds must be working).

    OK, Big WUWT group hug!

    BTW, I know where New York and London’s summer heat is…. It’s up here in Seattle!

    Holy Bleep its hot up here. Yesterday was in the mid 90’s, that’s around 35 C for the rest of the world. This morning we tied an all time record high low of 69, and the all time high is expected to fall today. 100 is the predicted high, it is 76 now at 7:25 am.

    To quote the venerable Buster Poindexter, it’s “Hot, Hot, Hot”

  55. Mike McMillan says:

    If the BBC is questioning the Met Office, let us hope we don’t have a repeat of the Andrew Gilligan ‘sexed up’ affair, which led to the resignation of both the Chairman and the Director General of the BBC (belated h/t to Dr David Kelly).

    Since we’re asked to destroy our economies on the off chance that the dire climate predictions ‘might’ come true and that we ‘might’ have a chance to prevent them, I suggest the current Chair and D.G. also resign, lest their accusation that the Met ‘sexed up’ the summer forecast also provoke excessive reactions.

    It’s a tough world when you’re trying to make the headlines.

  56. Sam the Skeptic says:

    PMT —
    Eden also has a regular – and very interesting – column in the Telegraph on Saturdays and Sundays. He seemed to veering towards the pro-AGW camp a couple of years ago but I get the feeling that recently he has been less sure.
    Which, IMHO, is the right position for a meteorologist. He digs into all sorts of arcane facts about weather events, some statistical some bizarre anomalies, which must focus the mind because it is quite apparent that virtually nothing we are seeing in today’s weather hasn’t happened before.
    On the other hand Jonathan Leake in the Sunday Times seems incapable of letting an article pass without a compulsory (and often quite irrelevant) reference to global warming.
    As in “… something we will, of course, have to get used to …”
    Pish!

  57. Jeff Alberts says:

    Tony Hansen (22:58:09) :

    From the BBC article..”the four day forecast is now as good as the one day forecast was 30 years ago”. Any supporting data for that claim?

    What would be reasonable expectations when it comes to forecasts (of any length) ?

    It’s certainly not true where I live. At least not when there’s actually any variability. During the summer in Western Washington, you can pretty much guarantee sunny, cloudless skies most of the time. But they have a very difficult time getting temps right. And when rain appears out of nowhere…

  58. KW says:

    People aren’t stupid, they’re just slow.

  59. AndrewWH says:

    I must admit a moment of air-punching and yelling “Yessssss!” when Terry Wogan, at the start of his show immediately after the news said “And they have the gall to insist we are all going to fry within ten years”.
    It’s a good job the car was stationary at the time…

  60. Rich says:

    An alternative view of Ken ring: http://www.sillybeliefs.com/ring.html

    In essence, “Weather repeats itself in cycles so you can easily forecast it from past weather records”. How did we miss that? “200 years ahead”. Right.

  61. M White says:

    Last nights BBC Newsnight – Tuesday 28 july 2009

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/newsnight

    Start at 30.13 – AGW in Greenland

    Followed by a studio discussion on the BBQ summer

  62. Archonix says:

    Huh, I just figured out why the Met Office called this a “barbecue summer”. It’s because we’re the only nation stubborn and/or insane enough to have a barbecue in this weather.

  63. AndyW35 says:

    My wife is on holiday in Dorset at the moment and it has rained all day. I’m in Kent and it has just started to rain, but she is in her tent and I am in my house drinking red French wine and italian cheese playing whatever music I want and looking at the Internet.

    In England always book holidays in May for good weather, you will be disappointed thanks to the Azores high. Summer is actually wetter.

    Having said that I am joining them next week in Devon, it never stops raining there!

    Regards

    Andy

  64. Nogw says:

    What we are seeing is the result of a quasi religious/political doctrine taking precedence over reality, when will we learn that it doesnt work, it didnt work in Maos China and the USSR and it wont work now, yet still the political classes try it
    They are convinced by their patrons that they are the “chosen elite” who has always brought the good to the people of the world, they are the “initiates”who will save us from our evil doings.
    Most of them, are really “freaks”, of course they don´t know it; so their patrons will dispose of them off after they have been used up.

  65. Nogw says:

    Paul Hanlon (06:55:29) : There’s a chap in New Zealand… …It seems that chap secretly reads WUWT !!

  66. rob says:

    Met Office has revised its long-range summer forecast, oops.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/5930378/Met-Office-revises-barbecue-summer-forecast-as-rain-looms.html

    Met Office predicts ‘a barbecue summer’

    AMID the economic gloom and the gathering clouds of swine flu, forecasters yesterday provided at least some cheer for this year’s stay-at-home holidaymakers – with their prediction of a scorching summer.

    Derek Brockway, BBC Wales weatherman, said the predicted dry and warm summer was the result of global weather phenomena.

    It’s based on using climate computer models and this takes into account many factors such as sea temperatures,” he said.

    http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2009/05/01/met-office-predicts-a-barbecue-summer-91466-23516948/

  67. Curiousgeorge says:

    I think I’ve figured out what the problem is with the “models” used by various agencies. They’re all made out of Balsa wood. :-)

  68. TonyB says:

    Andy W35

    It is brilliantly sunny here in Devon at present…admittedly it has been pouring with rain until an hour or so ago though…

    In the unlikely event it rains in Devon when you are on Holiday next week why not have a wet weather trip to Torquay to see the plaque to William Scoresby, the worlds first arctic scientist. The context and reference is right at the end of my article on arctic ice variations

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/20/historic-variation-in-arctic-ice/

    Not that it will rain though during this barbecue summer…

    tonyb

  69. AndyW35 says:

    Thanks tonyb for the words of reassurance. I will be north coasting so if it rains will be up to my neck in a rock pool at Woolacombe so won’t care anyway. The only thing that scares me is either A303 or the M5 near Bristol on the way down if someone crashes. It is a **** of a drive from Kent.

    Regards

    Andy

  70. P Wilson says:

    Its not just the Beeb. The Royal Meteorological society thinks they’re erroneous.

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article6731609.ece

    They should simply admit they don’t have a clue from one day to the next, from one season to the next, from one year to the next, and from one decade to the next, never mind the next 100 years, then that would justify them being disbanded so saving the UK taxpayer many millions of wasted UK£

  71. TonyB says:

    AndyW35

    We came back from France to Devon along the A303 this Monday and were astonished at the huge traffic levels. We stopped at the Little Chef at Popham. There was a Bentley parked in the car park and we were amazed to see the crowds inside the LC. We were told if we put our names down a table MIGHT become available soon! A reservation needed for a Little CHEF! Then we found out it was the one given a makeover by Heston Blumethal. Shows the power of tv.

    Have a good holiday.

    Tonyb

  72. Rob says:

    The Met Office said: “Seasonal forecasting is still a new science.

    What the hell is long term forcasting, la la science.

  73. DaveE says:

    Tim Groves (22:24:28) :

    More to the point on Piers Corbyn:

    “The Met Office complains in response that Mr Corbyn will not publish his “unique” methods of forecasting.”

    We can all sympathise with how upset they must be feeling about that.

    LMAO how true :-)

    DaveE

  74. BrianMcL says:

    My own view, FWIW, of the tone and manner of the many interviews across the various Beeb outlets today is that many of the journalists have been enjoying themselves at the Met’s expense. Scores being settled, perhaps.
    Hopefully they’ll be allowed to continue examining the various contradictions / shortcomings in climate science and maybe after a year or two more they’ll feel more comfortable about asking serious and searching questions of those seeking to change our way of life.
    Like many others I look forward to the Met’s stance of the various Jones FOI requests changing. At the very least I look forward to hearing the Met defending that one.

  75. DaveE says:

    AndyW35 (00:25:39) :

    Their 3-5 day forecasts are not bad at all now though.

    I guess you never hitch hike Andy.

    I don’t even trust their one day forecast because I do!

    DaveE.

  76. DaveE says:

    Rhys Jaggar (03:00:12) :

    If there is a catastrophic increase in flooding it is due to the lack of dredging of watercourses, allied to building houses too close to flood plains.

    Glad I’m no the only one to notice that.

    I was born in Catcliffe Nr Sheffield. The village is now a suburb of Sheffield & has expended to cover the flood plain.

    They seemed surprised last year when the flood plain flooded LOL

    Re-routing of rivers, damming to mitigate flooding lower downstream all contributes. Planners just don’t seem to understand weather!

    DaveE.

  77. DaveE says:

    TonyB (05:07:38) :

    Seaweed & a nail will do just fine Tony ;-)

    DaveE.

  78. Ron de Haan says:

    After the Solar publication, also made by the BBC, I slowly get the impression that the strong collaboration to the warmist case is overtaken by reality.

    This would mark the factual break up of the AGW Doctrine, leaving our politicians bud naked and without any support at all.

    We all know what that means.

    Politicians left without support usually face the end of their careers soon.

  79. Roger McEvilly says:

    re: Cassandra King
    I concur, and I would add the following comments:

    Every now and again the ‘political narative’ is claimed to be “science based”. It usually involves a kind of determinism-that is, humans have to be controlled in some way of another for the greater good (ie socialist-determinism), whereas in reality it is for the greater good of the bureaucratic class-think ‘Yes Minister’ in Science. Historical examples of data distortion coming from intellectualism/socialist-determinism include:

    -astrology (distorted astronomy). (Note the simlarity with AGW-but instead of the heavens controlling people-its the people controlling the heavens).
    -eugenics (distorting biology)
    -Nazism (distorting race/cultural struggle and biology)
    -communism (distorting economics)
    -christianity and islam (distorting ethics and theology)
    -AGW (distorting climate and energy).

    I dont think they have tried distorting energy before, but hopefully in 3,000 years it won’t be like astrology and be on the back of tabloid newspapers for fruitcakes to read.

  80. Richard Patton says:

    @Archonix (11:27:41) :

    “Huh, I just figured out why the Met Office called this a “barbecue summer”. It’s because we’re the only nation stubborn and/or insane enough to have a barbecue in this weather.”

    Not to brag but I have BBQ’d when the temp was just above freezing. We ate inside of course. But I have not figured out how to get that BBQ flavor to the burgers & Steaks.

  81. commonsense says:

    This is weather forecast, not climate forecast!

    That has nothing to do with the Met Office climate proyections.

  82. TonyB says:

    Commonsense

    According to the Met office they use the same methods of forecasting for short term forecasts as they do for long term climate scenarios. In the latter case they use linear projections and do not factor in jet streams, pdo’s, nor other random cyclical elements. Their knowledge of ice caps/glaciers is rudimentary-see my recent post which linked to a very recent met office ad asking for a glacier modeller as the science was still so very little undertstood.

    You are giving the Met office too much credit for understanding long term climates-their level of expertise in this is substantially lower than for their three month forecasts.

    TonyB

  83. Solomon Green says:

    The Met Office has other problems. Using the Hadley Centre data, Dr William F. Scott, a senior lecturer in actuarial science and statistics at Herriott Watt University, Edinburgh has just published the following letter in The Actuary, the UK profession’s house journal.

    “Global cooling

    The article by Brimblecombe and Rocchi (The Actuary, July 2009) says, ‘We may see a slight temporary slowdown in the rate of warming, due to La Niña’. Using smoothing formulae given by Herbert and Scott (Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2006) that allow for La Niña cycles, I estimate that global warming ceased (at least for the moment) in 2004. The Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA) may be found on the Hadley Centre’s website and anyone can do their own calculations. Here are some figures (in degrees Celcius):

    Year GTA (crude) GTA (smoothed)
    2004 .4320 .4495
    2005 .4790 .4462
    2006 .4220 .4308
    2007 .4030 .4015
    2008 .3120 .3567

    I can produce more extensive figures (and graphs) on request but, in rough terms, the extent of recent global warming was about 0.5 oC over 50 years to 2004, since when there has been a cooling of about 0.1 oC. On current trends, the GTA may be about zero in 15 years’ time and all the media talk about carbon footprints, carbon emissions and so on, will have been forgotten.

    It could be argued that ‘mathematical models’ prove that global warming will resume. I can only say that mathematical models are not infallible, as has been demonstrated in the case of the mathematical models used to help to give AAA ratings to collateralised debt obligations.

    William F. Scott
    26 June 2009

    The reference is http://www.the-actuary.org.uk/866471

  84. ROGER says:

    PMT.
    I am sure I have posted to this effect before, but these remarks from Philip Eden cannot be repeated enough:-

    The CET was devised and compiled by the eminent geographer and climatologist, Professor Gordon Manley (1902-80). The culmination of a life’s work, Manley’s final paper, Central England temperatures: monthly means 1659 to 1973, was published in the Quarterly Journal of the Meteorological Society in 1974, but several earlier publications — mostly in the QJRMS — had paved the way for this magnum opus.
    Since Professor Manley’s death the Meteorological Office seems to have become the self-appointed guardian of the CET series, although one wonders whether it is a guardianship of which Manley would have approved. Their continuation of the series from 1974 onwards uses observations from a variety of stations in the English Midlands (including the southeast Midlands); neither Oxford nor stations on the Lancashire Plain have been utilised, and for 30 years one coastal site was included. It is therefore manifestly not the same series, and large inhomogeneities are apparent.

    Philip Eden on his website http://www.climate-uk.com/ compiles his own CET series with sites that closely match those of the original Manley series.
    It will probably surprise no one here on WUWT that whereas the Hadley CET for july currently stands at +0.4C, http://www.climate-uk.com has a reading of -0.1 and that similar discrepancies with a global warming bias regularly occur.

    Who to believe………..???? Another no brainer!

  85. Andrew P says:

    Guardian’s Simon Jenkins joins attack on Met Office computers for its poor seasonal forecast record:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jul/30/weather-forecasts-prediction-casualties-helmand

    (but doesn’t mention they could also be wrong about AGW)

  86. Data says:

    Maybe the MetO should take up belomancy http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belomancy to improve their forecasts. Seriously though, they do not have a handle on any science that says months in advance, when large amounts of rainfall will happen, so I don`t know why they bother giving these forecasts when they really have no idea. Piers has a very good track record of predicting floods and cyclones from pulses of solar activity, and is the obvious leader in the field for such long range forecasts, his UK temperature forecasts since this February though, are typically 1.5 to 3 degrees C below real observations. It would be ironic if the MetO now follow the Piers forecast for a cooler and wetter August, and it turns out warmer and drier!

  87. JimH says:

    Re: the UK Met Office 5 day forecasts.

    I’m a farmer in the UK and make hay during the summer (or what passes for summer recently). I need a good 5-7 days of dry/hot weather to make good hay. I watch the 5 day forecasts religiously in June/July to try and spot a suitable slot to cut grass and make hay. I have noticed that they regularly predict rain 4-5 days out, which then changes as the day approaches. Mostly an improvement – ie less rain, more dryness/sun. The forecasts for up to 48 hours are pretty accurate, but beyond that you are in the lap of the gods, unless the weather is set fair with a dominant high pressure system. I think they predict rain a few days ahead, and then pull back from that as it is more acceptable to the public to improve the forecast, than vice versa.

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