NASA now saying that a Dalton Minimum repeat is possible

Guest Post by David Archibald

NASA’s David Hathaway has adjusted his expectations of Solar Cycle 24 downwards. He is quoted in the New York Times here Specifically, he said:

” Still, something like the Dalton Minimum — two solar cycles in the early 1800s that peaked at about an average of 50 sunspots — lies in the realm of the possible.”

NASA has caught up with my prediction in early 2006 of a Dalton Minimum repeat, so for a brief, shining moment of three years, I have had a better track record in predicting solar activity than NASA.

Hathaway-NYT

The graphic above is modified from a paper I published in March, 2006.  Even based on our understanding of solar – climate relationship at the time, it was evident the range of Solar Cycle 24 amplitude predictions would result in a 2°C range in temperature.  The climate science community was oblivious to this, despite billions being spent.  To borrow a term from the leftist lexicon, the predictions above Badalyan are now discredited elements.

Let’s now examine another successful prediction of mine. In March, 2008 at the first Heartland climate conference in New York, I predicted that Solar Cycle 24 would mean that it would not be a good time to be a Canadian wheat farmer. Lo and behold, the Canadian wheat crop is down 20% this year due to a cold spring and dry fields. Story here.

The oceans are losing heat, so the Canadian wheat belt will just get colder and drier as Solar Cycle 24 progresses. As Mark Steyn recently said, anyone under the age of 29 has not experienced global warming. A Dalton Minimum repeat will mean that they will have to wait to the age of 54 odd to experience a warming trend.

Where to now? The F 10.7 flux continues to flatline. All the volatility has gone out of it. In terms of picking the month of minimum for the Solar Cycle 23/24 transition, I think the solar community will put it in the middle of the F 10.7 quiet period due to the lack of sunspots. We won’t know how long that quiet period is until solar activity ramps up again. So picking the month of minimum at the moment may just be guessing.

Dr Hathaway says that we are not in for a Maunder Minimum, and I agree with him. I have been contacted by a gentleman from the lower 48 who has a very good solar activity model. It hindcasts the 20th century almost perfectly, so I have a lot of faith in what it is predicting for the 21st century, which is a couple of very weak cycles and then back to normal as we have known it. I consider his model to be a major advance in solar science.

What I am now examining is the possibility that there will not be a solar magnetic reversal at the Solar Cycle 24 maximum.


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markinaustin

i don’t follow the bit about a 2 degree Celsius variation in temperatures. is that based on past stuff that i am not familiar with?

markinaustin

ah…i guess this is what you meant?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dalton_Minimum

Adam from Kansas

The Sun is as blank as a piece of white paper at the time of writing this.
As for the climate indications, apparently the prospect of more than 3000 cold records in the U.S. (record low highs+record lows), shows that good chunks of this country and Canada are not being obedient to the dramatic uptick in temps. on the UAH site.
Mr. Archibald, what do you make of the current dramatic uptick in temps. according to UAH and the big spike in SST’s?

marks powers

Hope you plan on posting additional comments on this gentleman’s name and model…
“I have been contacted by a gentleman from the lower 48 who has a very good solar activity model. It hindcasts the 20th century almost perfectly, so I have a lot of faith in what it is predicting for the 21st century.”

Geo

I’ve come to the conclusion that solar cycle predicting does not deserve the label of “science” at this point.
This saddens me. More, it saddens me that the solar scientists don’t seem willing to own up to that fact. Perhaps this isn’t surprising. Mostly, I suspect they are insanely jealous these days that the Climate “scientists” get to make “science” predictions that can’t be checked until after they’ve left scene entirely, or at least safely on pension.

Weather is not climate: Portland Oregon, high temperature: New record for date, July 28, 106 Fahrenheit (old record 102), all time record 107.

Oops (old record 101)

Alan the Brit

This sounds good sense to me! BUT not good news for weather patterns. Another cool wet start in the South-West, I wish we had this bbq Summer the Met Off claimed we’d get. Typical, we were told that we could have Australian style weather with AGW, (& they would get ours!) & every time a storm occurred & the Sea Wall @ Dawlish failed, yet another “expert” from Plymouth or Exeter Uni would come on tv & claim that “this is what we can expect from climate change, wetter warmer winters & hotter drier summers”! Where are they? Idiots!

Jim B in Canada

We’re over half way through 2009 and the current sunspot numbers are pretty impressive at 160 ish sunspot less days. I say WUWT should set up a sun spotless day pool and let people guess at both the total sun spotless days in 2009 and the highest one day count in 2009.
Everyone can sign and make a guess and that includes staff at NASA then all those who chose correctly are put into a draw to win a prize!
Maybe WUWT fans will guess (ahem calculate-model-predict) better than NASA?

Alex Baker

James F. Evans (22:33:46) :
Weather is not climate: Portland Oregon, high temperature: New record for date, July 28, 106 Fahrenheit (old record 102), all time record 107.
James, I think this is relatively OT from the post, but…
AP reports only 103 – duly noted…though one might comment that this is a regional effect that results anytime, though rarely and only during the height of summer, anytime the weather systems set up in Eastern Oregon in such a way as to send hot air back into the Willamette Valley via the Gorge. The same effect can cause record cold during the height of winter. Tomorrow could be hotter…
http://www.oregonlive.com/newsflash/index.ssf?/base/national-40/1248769196206800.xml&storylist=orlocal
However, the Midwest is experiencing extremely unusual July weather with near record low highs and wet weather:
http://blogs.wlfi.com/2009/07/22/record-cool-july-continues/
I think the broader effect occurring in the Midwest is the much more unusual and is in line with PDO + solar effects…

Richard Heg

“The oceans are losing heat,”
and yet…
“Global Ocean Surface Temperature Warmest On Record For June”
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/07/090725120303.htm
Please explain are the ocean’s loosing heat because the surface temperatures are high? or are the figures questionable?

Adam from Kansas (22:20:15) :
I don’t see what you are seeing. NOAA sst anomalies are fairly neutral.
There is another way of measuring climate change – pool chlorine sales. I met a bloke recently who has been selling pool chemicals for the last 17 years. Chlorine consumption is directly proportional to heat. His chlorine sales have been falling for the last 12 years.

David Corcoran

I’ve heard that a lot… weather is not climate. But what’s weather? Hansen’s predictions (pardon me, “projections”) 30 years ago were wrong, 20 years ago they were wrong also, and practically no-one predicted the last 10 years of cooling/flat temps. When is it fair to judge a theory? 30 years, 50? 100? 100,000?

Richard deSousa

Hathaway said previous that solar cycle 24 was going to be a hot one. Then the sun made Hathaway’s subsequent predictions less and less correct. Now Hathaway says a Dalton Minimum is a possibility but a Maunder Minimum is not going to happen. Let’s see whether the sun has the last word.

@ Alex Baker (22:49:36) :
103 was the day before.

timetochooseagain

Two degrees C? Seriously? Nobody seriously thinks the solar cycle impact is of that magnitude.
“As Mark Steyn recently said, anyone under the age of 29 has not experienced global warming.”
This is NOT what Steyn said. He specifically stated “If you’re 29, there has been no global warming for your entire adult life. If you’re graduating high school, there has been no global warming since you entered first grade.”-and I would go farther, since by my calculations Steyn is going by 10/11 years-in fact, there has been no warming for twelve years at least:
http://digitaldiatribes.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/uahcooling200906.jpg
(BTW using RSS makes little difference, since RSS actually cooled relative to UAH during the last few years (during the AQUA “annual cycle issue” period)

Philip_B

Mr. Archibald, what do you make of the current dramatic uptick in temps. according to UAH and the big spike in SST’s?
SSTs measure heat release from the oceans to the atmosphere and therefore heat lost to space from the Earth’s climate system.
Increasing SSTs without increasing ocean temperatures (and the Argo data says the oceans aren’t warming) means the Earth’s climate is cooling. Albeit, with a short term increase in atmospheric temperatures due to the ocean heat release.
If I were in the prediction business, I’d say this NH winter will be harsh and next summer even cooler than this year’s.

crosspatch

Which way is the wind blowing in Portland? If it is coming from the East they could be getting downslope warming of air coming in from the desert region as it comes down the Cascades.
I am a few hundred miles South of Oregon and our temperatures are still quite cool for this time of year. It isn’t forecast to get above 80 degrees this week in San Jose, California.

Antonio San

“Climate is the sum of weathers” Marcel Leroux (1928-2008)

crosspatch

“His chlorine sales have been falling for the last 12 years.”
Not a good indicator in the aggregate. There can be MANY reasons for pool chemical sales to drop. Increasing insurance premiums making pools to much of a burden, aging of the population, they just don’t want to fool with the pool anymore, has he picked up competition? Too many variables. Many people I know have filled their pools in due to insurance requirements. It is just too expensive to meet the requirements and pay the homeowner’s premium.

Graeme Rodaughan

If a Dalton Minimum Occurs, and is associated with visible global cooling, this will blow every current CO2 based Climate Model out of the water.
REF: “Kudos to NOAA for being among the first to explicitly state what sort of observation would be inconsistent with model predictions — 15 years of no warming” from http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2009/07/noaa-explains-global-temperature.html

timetochooseagain

Antonio San (23:26:39) : Actually, no, its the sum of “weathers” divided by the number of “weathers” but it is a good point. Most people really don’t seem to understand they relationship between weather and climate-which is strange since so much of it is intuitive and very basic math for the rest…

Mikko

Mr Archibald, you’re very sure of yourself when you state “A Dalton Minimum repeat will mean that they will have to wait to the age of 54 odd to experience a warming trend.”
By looking at the NYT article, it features a panel of 12 scientists from NOAA which
“… predicts that the May 2013 peak will average 90 sunspots during that month. That would make it the weakest solar maximum since 1928, which peaked at 78 sunspots. During an average solar maximum, the Sun is covered with an average of 120 sunspots.
But the panel’s consensus “was not a unanimous decision,” said Douglas A. Biesecker, chairman of the panel. One member still believed the cycle would roar to life while others thought the maximum would peter out at only 70.””
To me, this guest post of yours smacks a bit of wanting to boost your status by quoting just one NASA scientist who, as per my reading of the article, did not state in very strong words the possibility of a Dalton Minimum, but “lies in the realm of possible”. Also, Mr Hathaway is but one scientist from NASA, and it is not certain from the article that this prediction of a Dalton Minimum is an official position of NASA. Yet you claim such in your own post.
The NYT article states that scientists confess to uncertainties in predicting future sunspot activity which is what a good scientist would do in the situation where solar processes are not fully understood. And you, who are but one individual, now claim that “A Dalton Minimum repeat will mean…” with apparent certainty.
I wouldn’t be surprised if your prediction of a Dalton Minimum would turn out to be wrong, but hey, I wouldn’t be surprised seeing the commentary I’ve read on your 2006 paper on solar cycles…
BTW, your chlorine consumption anecdote is pretty much irrelevant.

noaaprogrammer

Richard deSousa wrote: “Hathaway said previous that solar cycle 24 was going to be a hot one. Then the sun made Hathaway’s subsequent predictions less and less correct. Now Hathaway says a Dalton Minimum is a possibility but a Maunder Minimum is not going to happen.”
Ha! He should have said it would have been a Maunder Minimum except for global warming!

I’m just reporting the weather with a chuckle…it’s hard to figure out Mother Nature!
In terms of the instant post, I agree with it, and have been very clear expressing my opinion that the Sun’s solar maximum and minimum is a decisive influence on climate. (AGW is wrong in so many ways…)
I also happen to agree with Alex Baker’s comment that the consistent downward sweep (southern flow of cooler air) out of Canada is more reflective of the overall weather pattern. Typically, when a “southern flow” predominates in the Mid-West and East, warmer air (hot) back-flows up behind it, such as now.
Still, I have to chuckle when I think (as I’m sweating it out): “Warmer really means colder.”
Oh…Mother Nature, you’re a fickle beast…
Oh…the plans of mice and men…

Graeme Rodaughan

timetochooseagain (23:22:25) :
The colder it gets, the more “old warming” is wiped out and the longer the period of “no warming” grows.

Kum Dollison

I keep reading: “But, the Argo Buoys say the Oceans are Cooling.”
When was the “Last” Data from the Argo Buoys? How often do they release it. Where?

Richard deSousa

Mikko, Michael Crichton once said: “I want to pause here and talk about this notion of consensus, and the rise of what has been called consensus science. I regard consensus science as an extremely pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks. Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you’re being had.”
http://www.crichton-official.com/speech-alienscauseglobalwarming.html

John Silver

David Archibald (23:00:06) :
………..
“There is another way of measuring climate change – pool chlorine sales. I met a bloke recently who has been selling pool chemicals for the last 17 years. Chlorine consumption is directly proportional to heat. His chlorine sales have been falling for the last 12 years.”
That’s cool! Literally.
Where was this?

John Silver

Antonio San (23:26:39) :
“Climate is the sum of weathers” Marcel Leroux (1928-2008)
Doesn’t make sense. Typical frogspeak.
Exactly how many years of weather is climate?

I’m in Lebanon OR, 90 miles S of Portland and my thermometer never got over 98 today. Could be triple digits tomorrow, but I recall a 105 degree day two summers ago. Not to say that it wasn’t a record day for July 28 — I don’t know about that. And I’m not sure where the “official” thermometer is in Portland. I’m guessing the airport, near the tarmac.

Tenuc

After reading NASA’s David Hathaway comments, I don’t think he has a clue about the fundamental processes drivng the sun, or how these processes effect conditions on earth. Both bodies have chaotic dynamic climate systems which makes predicting future behavour very difficult.
I agree with David Archibold, regarding the importance of F 10.7 flux, and my own guess is that part of the answer lies in the sun-earth magnetic and particle interaction, which changes the shape of our atmospheric envelope and it’s electric charge. Perhaps no cooincdence that the earths polar magnetic fields are weakening as the sun’s field flat-lines.
Regardng c24 SSN, my own guess is 42 – the answer to life, the universe and everything…

Allan

Argo home page at
http://www.argo.ucsd.edu
or just google

rbateman

James F. Evans (22:33:46) :
Weather is not climate: Portland Oregon, high temperature: New record for date, July 28, 106 Fahrenheit (old record 102), all time record 107.
I see a record of 101 for July 28, 1988 for Portland WSFO 1941-present.
Of course, you have 2 other dates with 107: July 30, 1965 and Aug 8, 1981
Portland WSO City shows 97 for July 28, 1958 for 1928 -1973
Portland WB City shows 100 for July 28, 1998.
The funny thing about it is, for all those cities, 1977 shows as a year where a lot of record highs & lows were set. Dry. Lack of H20 vapor.

Alan the Brit

A few words on the word “consensus”. When I was a “yoof of today”, so called experts used to say things like, “the current thinking is……….” or “the current thought process is that……….”, which automatically implied that things could change, as & when & if something new was discovered. I’ll give it a few years before it turns around again. Consensus is a new “group speak” word in my book, & it suggests somehow that things are settled, with little room for doubt. Then again that’s just me! Pocket Oxford Dictionary, 1925:- consensus, “Agreement of opinion on the part of ALL concerned”. Emphasis is mine, sums it ALL up nicely! If you don’t agree, you are not concerned, perhaps like the Union of Concerned Scientists!

rbateman

It’s been low enough for long enough to approach the Dalton question.
Within striking distance, as long as thing continue down the path of sluggishness, which as of today has not changed all that much.
True, there is a step up in the flux, a promising group in the Southern Hem. this month, but it got back to business as usual save the slightly elevated corrected flux.
What’s left of SC1024 produced a White-Light facula of 600x10E6 yesterday and slightly under 300x10E6 hemi. today, roughly. Pardon my green counting of the ‘other’ type of active region.

Mikko (23:35:45) :
“BTW, your chlorine consumption anecdote is pretty much irrelevant”
What’s the matter Mikko, are you saying that only alarmists are allowed to reference proxies?

Spector

As a result of a recent extended solar slumber, the longest such period of solar inactivity since 1856, we may soon expect to have a clear answer to the Climate Change question. If the next three years show a continued progressive warming trend in response to increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere then anthropogenic or man-made Global Warming will be proven beyond a doubt. On the other hand, if a cooling trend develops, it would then appear that climate change was being driven primarily by physiogenic (natural) factors.
As the drum of increasing solar activity over the last century has just skipped a beat, we should not wait long to resolve this issue. This is not a case of going smash if we do nothing and anthropogenic pollution is the real cause of ‘Climate Change’. I think we should be able to wait a little and give nature a chance before investing in a massive federal abatement program.
I formerly accepted industrial pollution caused Global Warming as an established fact and assumed we would soon see ever more melting of the Arctic and Antarctic regions. But after viewing David Archibald’s presentations, I began to seriously question the ‘accepted’ theory.
I find the Archibald boomerang temperature curve showing the Middle Age Warm Period, the Renaissance Little Ice Age and our Modern Warm Period, to be more credible than the Mann IPCC flat-line ‘hockey stick’ curve that only shows modern warming.

Alan the Brit
Are you from the South West too? My house overlooks the sea wall betwen Teignmouth and Dawlish (which carries the main line railway link). The first record of it being closed was the winter following it being built in the 1840’s!
There is an engineers report (and lithographs showing damage) from around 1857 confirming the railway alignment was incorrect and that it would always have trouble coping in an extreme easterly gale. The sea wall also shows how little- if any-sea level rise since it was constructed by Brunel.
Tonyb

bill

Philip_B (23:24:40) :
SSTs measure heat release from the oceans to the atmosphere and therefore heat lost to space from the Earth’s climate system.
Increasing SSTs without increasing ocean temperatures (and the Argo data says the oceans aren’t warming) means the Earth’s climate is cooling.

So how did the heat get in the oceans?
Is this why the temperature has not risen for a number of years – because the heat has been stored in the ocean.
Energy budget is everything – outgoing must eventually incoming else the temperature changes until black body radiation changes to equalise.
Since incoming is prettymuch static any energy stored in the sea must come from the atmosphere – giving static temps if GHGs affecting temp or falling if no GHG effect.

Pierre Gosselin

Should your “prediction” turn out to be correct, it will be interesting to see if the sun will indeed cause the earth to cool down some, thus throwing cold water on the AGW theory.
That’s the question.

John Silver (00:12:59) : Perth, Australia

Mary Hinge

Philip_B (23:24:40) :
……(and the Argo data says the oceans aren’t warming)…..

Where do you pick this nonsense up from, Argo says no such thing. have you a reference to your claims?
http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/global_change_analysis.html#temp

Rhys Jaggar

If you look at the annual sunspot numbers for the last 3 years of cycle 23, you sum them up at 25.6.
There are only two other cycles since 1700 where that figure is less, namely cycle -4 starting in 1700 and +5 starting in 1798.
Cycle +6 is similar to 23, cycles +14 and +11 are slightly higher.
The data from those 5 cycles for the next maximum is:
Maxima of: 63, 46, 71, 104 and 64.
From that, there’s an 80% chance that cycle 24 has annual maximum amplitude of 75 sunspots or less, other things being equal.
Whether other things are equal is a particularly moot point.
But if 2009 continues on a downward path or stays flat, the chances of Dalton Minimum seem reasonable to me.

Jimmy Haigh

Mikko (23:35:45) :
“BTW, your chlorine consumption anecdote is pretty much irrelevant”
So what’s the headline? “Global warming causes reduced chlorine consumption”?

Nick Yates

John Silver (00:21:17) :
Doesn’t make sense. Typical frogspeak.
Exactly how many years of weather is climate?

I’m starting to think that the climate is so variable that it’s hard to say.

Vincent

Spector: you wrote ” If the next three years show a continued progressive warming trend in response to increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere then anthropogenic or man-made Global Warming will be proven beyond a doubt.”
Care to explain why this would prove AGW beyond a doubt?

Alan the Brit

TonyB;-)
Yes I am but not an aboriginal, I’ve only been here 20 years! The sea wall was always a standing joke from my viewpoint, I knew some railway engineers who told me there were underlying issues with its original construction, plus being fully exposed to the full might of Mother Nature’s fury! It had been failing for years long before CC & AGW, & Brunel couldn’t get everything right, but it’s quite alarming to be stuck on a stationary train in mid-winter in a storm in pitch black, with waves crashing over head, but fun!
As to the Sun, well according to 3/4 of the gobal temp metrics we have been cooling for 8 years give or take, & I say again, someone like Prof Mike Lockwood from Southampton Uni says about the Sun’s quietness, “if there was going to be any cooling effects we’d see them by now!” (not a direct quote). The Keeling study said in mid 08 we’re going to cool unitl 2014-15, then hang on to your hats, well maybe, Piers Corbyn says otherwise, as does David C. Archiblad, & I dare say others too. The Met Office has today made what can only be described as a humiliating climb down on the Summer weather prediction – how wet do you want your rain? It says nothing about the uncertainties of its GCM’s, but is insistant on bringing these “uncertainties” to the fore about weather forecasts to get out of its embarrassment! Where is Madame Guillotine? If it rains any more the sea-level is bound to rise! Now check, saw, hammer, drill + bits, nails, screws, corking, timber, iron for the keel, tea pot, cup……!
On a more serious note, anyone with an ounce, sorry 0.28N, of common sense knows that we have more to fear from an impending Ice-Age, than from any AGW, as the graphs of the last 700,000 years attest. The likes of the IPCC & the EU & President Obama would be far better paying heed to these stark warnings in tandem, but then again, that’s not what they are here to do, is it?

GeoS

Alan the Brit (01:21:17) : A few words on the word “consensus”. When I was a “yoof of today”, so called experts used to say things like, “the current thinking is……….” or “the current thought process is that……….”,
When I was a yoof of today, so called experts used to say, “the state of the art…….”
G

Article submitted for publishing in 2003 (page 3, Fig.3. forward extrapolated) suggested value for SC24 of 80.
http://xxx.lanl.gov/ftp/astro-ph/papers/0401/0401107.pdf