NOAA announces the arrival of El Niño

Horrors! We must raise taxes, immediately!

This will mean more BBC and Monbiot driven thermageddon. I can hardly wait…

” NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.”
What an arrogant, ignorant piece of bloviation that is! It enrages me every time I read it (but then I am also enraged by John Lennon’s moronic mewl ‘Imagine’). On the other hand, what would one expect from an outfit that styles itself the Administrator of Ocean and Air? Poseidon and Aeolus wrapped up in one.
At the name of NOAA, every knee shall bow.

The last paragraph kind of says it all…
“…NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.”

Joe Bastardi from Accuweather, who predicted the El Nino back in January, predicts that it will be no more than a moderate one, and that it will fall apart by late fall or winter. That being said, the AGW’ers and the media will no doubt start having a field day as it will be proclaimed that “global warming has resumed just like the models predicted.” I can’t wait (heavy sarcasm).

Yes Brian, predictions that are actually observed should be emphasized.

UK Sceptic, I fully agree (as a fellow UK BBC sufferer), but won’t it be great if the high temperatures don’t materialize? How will they defend that? El Nino, but cool temps. I can’t wait.

UK Met Office and CRU web site has been down for three days now! Bet they can’t wait to get back online with their dire predictions.

Well, they’ve been predicting it long enough. Remember that while we may be in the negative phase of the PDO, it doesn’t preclude experiencing a few El Niño events. It’ll probably turn out to be a weak event, despite some folks’ hopes for a repeat of ’98. La Niña events, on the other hand, tend to be predominant during the DPO’s negative phase. The good news, I suppose, would be fewer Atlantic hurricanes – haven’t had a named storm yet this season – not even a “Tiny Tim”.

“Advanced climate science allows us to alert industries, governments and emergency managers about the weather conditions El Niño may bring so these can be factored into decision-making and ultimately protect life, property and the economy,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.
Next time they are proven wrong, we’ll know their climate science was not advanced enough… Just as for the Communist planification, they’ll have to find another qualificative to describe their product: Hyper-cerebral, Mighty-weaponed, Multi spatial climate science… LOL

The next few months are going to be very interesting for anyone who follows the evolution of global temperatures and the whole climate change debate.
Remember, the UK MetOffice predicted about seven months ago that 2009 is going to be one of the top five warmest years ever recorded. The great La Nina of 2007/08 and the minor one peaked in January 2009 has gone. Then we have this announcement from NOAA about the beginning of a new El Nino. The global temperature anomaly tends to lag short-term ENSO variations by 2-5 months. It seems that the 2009 forecast is going to ‘overshoot’ the real 2009 value, like any other years since 1999. Altough this is not good for the credibility of the MetOffice, the real question is the temperature response to the next El Nino. If the global anomaly can’t exceed the pre-2008 levels during an El Nino, the main assumption of the AGW camp that increasing CO2 is the main driver of global temperatures will get a serious hit.
According to Dr. Spencer at UAH, the satellite-measured global near-surface temperture anomaly in June was zero (0.001°c) with respect to the 1979-98 reference period. The lack of statisticially significant warming since about 1995, the lack of any warming trend since 1997, and the obvious cooling trend since about 2001 can be seen even in the HadCRUT dataset. Despite of this fact and the systematic bias in the annual global temperature predictions of the MetOffice, Phil Jones just keeps repeating the very same mantra:
“The fact that 2009, like 2008, will not break records does not mean that global warming has gone away. What matters is the underlying rate of warming – the period 2001-2007, with an average of 14.44 °C, was 0.21 °C warmer than corresponding values for the period 1991-2000.”
The recent 9-year cooling trend may have not been caused by a single ENSO event, it must be something else – something they weren’t aware of. The effects of the oncoming El Nino, the recovery or non-recovery of global temperatures to pre-2008 levels will be a very important issue.
This single event can prove the whole CRU and MetOffice wrong (or ressurect their credibility if the outcome will be the opposite).

Follow the weekly updates (out every Monday). The Oceanic Nino Index needs to be +.5 or above (the one posted for July 6th was at .2) and then forecasted to continue at that or above level for 3 months. Not all forecasting models predict this. The statistical models indicate a near equal chance of neutral or El Nino. The dynamical models indicate mostly an El Nino condition. Most predict a weak one at that. It is to be remembered that during a cool PDO flip, El Nino’s will occur. Just not very many and not very strong. The last 3 have all trended down. I still consider the PDO to be in a cool phase and I think that the trend will continue for weaker and weaker El Nino’s. This is probably why NOAA issued an El Nino ADVISORY. If this turns out to be a weaker El Nino, the Northwest could still see very wintery and snowy conditions.