Guest Post by Steven Goddard
Mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun The Japanese don’t care to, the Chinese wouldn’t dare to Hindus and Argentines sleep firmly from twelve till one But Englishmen detest-a siesta
– Noel Coward – 1931
Persistence is the British trait which kept the Shackleton crew alive and helped England withstand the Nazi’s throughout World War II. It keeps the Catlin Crew going and kept Lewis Pugh relentlessly paddling his kayak over Arctic Ice towards the pole. And it is the same trait which keeps the UK Met Office forecasting warm summers year after year. The Met Office forecast 2007 to be the warmest year ever globally, and a hot summer in the UK.
Instead it turned out to be a cool summer and the rainiest on record in England. Similar story for summer 2008 and winter 2008-2009 . Yet in fine British tradition the Met Office remains undaunted –
The coming summer is ‘odds on for a barbecue summer’, according to long-range forecasts. Summer temperatures across the UK are likely to be warmer than average and rainfall near or below average for the three months of summer.
Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office, Ewen McCallum, said: “After two disappointingly-wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year. We can expect times when temperatures will be above 30 °C, something we hardly saw at all last year.”
The last 30C day in London was July 26, 2006 – that was over 1,000 days ago. But you have to admire their grit and determination to get the global warming message across to the ignorant British population.
“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”
– Attributed to Albert Einstein
Darts anyone?
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I’m rather astonished. The UK Met office used to be 100% accurate with “sunny periods with scattered showers” forecasts.
Now, every year, they go out on a limb and predict heat and drought. I guess they’ll be right once or twice … eventually.
A Broken Clock is right twice a day.
You just wait and see, one of these times I will be right. Like playing the same numbers in the lottery, eventually they will come out, you may be long dead but it will happen.
It is not a forecast as much as a opinion, here in Canada they actually point out that they only have 50% record on the sign of seasonal change forecasts …
Yes, but some time they will get it right and get a few pats on the back and some shrill global warming stories. Peoples’s memories are short.
Even a broken clock is correct twice a day.
Very well, then. Carry on. Stiff upper lip and all that.
No more than I expected. I have to say that after this last winter I’ve given up using the Met Office and now use Accuweather forecasts, which so far at least have proved to be considerably better. I notice that they are predicting a normal to slightly cooler than average summer.
‘odds on for a barbecue summer’
Of course. Self fulfilling, if they site their weather stations the way we do. Enough charcoal in the barbie (OK, that’s Down Under) and the MET can report record highs.
Just be careful not to burn your parka.
Here is my prediction… The summer in the Northern Hemisphere will be warmer than last winter.
On March 31st 2009 the Met Office forecast average summer temperatures for UK and western Europe. What value do you place on long term forecasts that change so much in just a month?
I would post a link but the page no longer exists.
Perhaps they would be more accurately called “gorecasts” rather than “forecasts.”
One wonders which signs they are looking at!
It’s optimism. If I get another summer like last one, I’ll shoot myself. If I could own a gun.
It’s alright for you Yanks, I have to pay for the wretched place and all the idiots in it who, even as write, are looking forward to their superb pensions – and I paid for those as well! Can anyone spare a sick-bag?
They have “lost the plot”, time for their Models, Computers and Satellites to be put in the bin.
Bring out that Dartboard !.
I wonder how many years in a row one can confidentially forecast the following Quarter to their boss, be completely, polar oppositely wrong, and continue to keep their job?
I would think that if your boss REALLY liked you, you might be able to scrape by the first two times…
I imagine there are more than a couple in the Met office hoping they get it right this time.
Just because they can’t predict a season’s weather doesn’t mean they can’t predict the globe’s climate for the next 10, 20, 50 or 100 years. Weather isn’t climate, you know.
Why, there are too many factors in predicting the weather. Climate is much simpler. Just take a temp chart and draw and upward-trending line for the future.
And call it a ‘scenario’, not a prediction.
Well, even a broken clock is broken.
even a stopped clock shows the right time twice a day
Wow, look at the change in attitude! A year ago a warm summer would be a global warming disaster. Now:
“After two disappointingly-wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year.”
It almost sounds like a warm summer would actually be a good thing. Back to the re-educations camps for Chief Meteorologist Ewen McCallum!
They can’t be basing their prediction on anything other than hope.
I’m personally predicting a cooler than average summer with below average hot days and cooler nights… and I’m basing that on both Atlantic and Pacific cycles and a spotless Sun.
If they took bets on this someplace, I’d be willing to put money on it.
The annoying part is, next year everyone will forget that Met was wrong and I was right…
@ur momisugly Scott,
Do you really think they would be held to account?!
Whether the Met Office:
Whether the weather is hot
As the Met thinks is near
Or whether it’s not
Will in some months be clear
In the meantime
Roll out the barbie
The beef and the beer
😀 😀 😀 😀
I love these posts that produce the best comments on the internet.
Thanks, Anthony. It’s good to have a few chuckles at the expense of the warmers.
My long range every day forecast for the UK remains unchanged, long term, short term, any term.
Cloudy with some sunshine and rain at times.
Still if the Met Office need any help they can always ask poor old Michael Fish Met Office Employee and former BBC weatherman eh ?
“Some woman has called the BBC and said that she’d heard that there was a Hurricane on the way, don’t worry…………..
That evening the great storm of 1987 roared ashore….
Maybe there’s a method behind their madness. If their forecast is wrong, they’ll have justification for buying another supercomputer to improve their forecasting capabilities. If it’s right, then by Jove, that new supercomputer was just the thing!