Following up on the cold spring story from Friday, one of the favorite mantras of the global warming community has been that global warming brings earlier spring seasons. If a bird shows up earlier than someone in Yorkshire expected, a news story often appears at The Guardian or BBC explaining that it is due to “man made global warming.” A Google search of “global warming early spring” produces more than 300,000 hits.
So what happens when nature refuses to cooperate? Below are some claims from the top ten, interspersed with recent observations from the cold spring season of 2009.
Today’s NCEP forecast for the US – cold across the entire country + Canada + Mexico
Accuweather spring snow forecast through today. I’m guessing that no one is planting crops in Nebraska today.
Global warming causes quakes, early spring
Earthquakes?
Global warming brings early spring to Arctic
Three people based their spring backpacking trip on that theory:
Catlin Arctic Explorer Martin Hartley
Current spring conditions in the Arctic
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-35°C℃ |
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Mild winter rattles Russians : Psychiatrists warn lack of cold, sun, snow lead some into depression
Today’s NCEP forecast for Russia – severe springtime cold
Perhaps all that extra CO2 is being affected by the global recession, and is unable to find employment in it’s normal line of work – trapping heat.
Protesting snowmen on the unemployment lines – H/T to Jennifer Marohasy
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http://www.iceagenow.com/US_Navy_Physicist_warns_of_crushing_temperatures_and_global_famine.htm
REPLY: Yes I’ve been reading this since last night. Thanks for the tip though. – Anthony
Psychiatrists in Moscow say the lack of sun and snow – which reflects sunlight to brighten short, dark days – is leaving many depressed.
“The clouds, the short days and the lack of light can have a deep psychological effect even on people who are mentally healthy,” says Denis Osipov, a psychotherapist at Moscow’s Institute for Positive Psychotherapy.
“And without snow, the city looks filthy. It’s hard to feel happy when everyone around you looks dirty and miserable,” he said.
So now AGW causes dirty, miserable people. What a crock. I’ll take warm over cold anytime other than June, July and August (in the NH). I’ll wager Pamela G. agrees with me, she was miserable when it was cold, (and a little verbally dirty) ;~P.
Research by White et al. used satellite data to measure how much earlier spring is arriving with the warming climate. Over the past 25 years (since 1982) they found “no evidence for time trends in spring arrival from ground- or model-based data; using an ensemble estimate from two methods that were more closely related to ground observations than other methods, SOS trends could be detected for only 12% of North America and were divided between trends towards both earlier and later spring.”
Intercomparison, interpretation, and assessment of spring phenology in North America estimated from remote sensing for 1982 to 2006.
M. White et al.
Global Change Biology (in press).
White, M.A., K.M. de Beurs, K. Didan, D.W. Inouye, A.D. Richardson, O.P. Jensen, J. O’Keefe, G. Zhang, R.R. Nemani, W.J.D. van Leeuwen, J.F. Brown, A. de Wit, M. Schaepman, X. Lin, M. Dettinger, A. Bailey, J. Kimball, M.D. Schwartz, D.D. Baldocchi, J.T. Lee, W.K. Lauenroth. Intercomparison, interpretation, and assessment of spring phenology in North America estimated from remote sensing for 1982 to 2006. Global Change Biology (in press).
The abtstract reads
“Shifts in the timing of spring phenology are a central feature of global change research. Long-term observations of plant phenology have been used to track vegetation responses to climate variability but are often limited to particular species and locations and may not represent synoptic patterns. Satellite remote sensing is instead used for continental to global monitoring. Although numerous methods exist to extract phenological timing, in particular start-of-spring (SOS), from time series of reflectance data, a comprehensive intercomparison and interpretation of SOS methods has not been conducted. Here, we assess 10 SOS methods for North America between 1982 and 2006. The techniques include consistent inputs from the 8 km Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer NDVIg dataset, independent data for snow cover, soil thaw, lake ice dynamics, spring streamflow timing, over 16 000 individual measurements of ground-based phenology, and two temperature-driven models of spring phenology. Compared with an ensemble of the 10 SOS methods, we found that individual methods differed in average day-of-year estimates by +/- 60 days and in standard deviation by +/- 20 days. The ability of the satellite methods to retrieve SOS estimates was highest in northern latitudes and lowest in arid, tropical, and Mediterranean ecoregions. The ordinal rank of SOS methods varied geographically, as did the relationships between SOS estimates and the cryospheric/hydrologic metrics. Compared with ground observations, SOS estimates were related to the first leaf and first flowers expanding phenological stages. We found no evidence for time trends in spring arrival from ground- or model-based data; using an ensemble estimate from two methods that were more closely related to ground observations than other methods, SOS trends could be detected for only 12% of North America and were divided between trends towards both earlier and later spring.”
Good post!, as always, sun and climate our favorites.
Was it not that, as countrymen all over the world, the seasons follow the lunar calendar?, then we will have to wait until the first full moon of the equinox -next week.- (Here in SH of course waiting for fall to come)
About the 2007 mild russian winter: I have not checked temperatures but it seems to me like the “temperature polar axis” is travelling southwards to Canada and if so, the other “side”, Russia, would have milder weather.
However, russians don´t believe in “hollywood science” (K.I.Abdusamatov)
and predict a Maunder like minimum.
http://www.giurfa.com/abdusamatov2.pdf
Ice shelf bridge collapse story…… http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7984054.stm
Ron de Haan (06:57:09) :
Interesting paper. 570 spotless days does not a grand minimum make. Still, all the indicators point that way. We will have to wait another 570 spotless days to be sure. Lots of time for discussion, by the fireplace (Brrr!).
–Mike Ramsey
A must see from J hansen’s former boss
http://www.heartland.org/_scripts/player.swf?file=http://www.heartland.org/bin/media/newyork09/keynotes/031009LunchTheon.flv&allowfullscreen=true&height=313&width=400&&id=veneers&searchbar=false&showicons=false&autostart=true&overstretch=fit&backcolor=0x287585&frontcolor=0xFFFFFF&lightcolor=0x000000i
That Earthquake story was from my local paper. They called their column “dateline earth” to give it that apocalyptic tone. They’re going out of business now…pity. I (and nearly all their readers) really enjoyed flaming them every week. 🙂
A deep cooling would cut productivity in northern hemisphere farming while increasing drought elsewhere. Less warmth and long winters equals less crop, and that could made even worse if we’re cutting much needed CO2 at the same time.
Europeans, Chinese, North Americans and Japanese will be more reliant on importing food from southern nations which are mostly underdeveloped. We better let politicians know that they need a contingency plan to get developing nations to improve their irrigation of lands and farming method otherwise everyone suffers.
The last time this happened Europeans were forced to colonise the world to feed their homelands. Colonisation is no longer a possibility so rapid co-operation and development is the only option.
My cherry trees are blooming the LATEST I have seen in years here in N. Central Texas. Normally by this time they have flowered and leafed out, I am only getting a few blooms and leafing now! (Caveat: Wx not, climate I know.)
How long before the cracks in the AGW dam break to reveal a flood of anti AGW rhetoric that was put out by the the political elements that have always been part of this debate? A couple of points. Cold kills more quickly and is more efficient at killing than heat. Cold means we need more food, or better insulation.
Arthur C Clarke, the science fiction writer, predicted that by the end of the 21’st century we’d be burning coal to stave off an ice age, perhaps he was thinking too far ahead 2020 anyone?
whoops, make that “anti AGW rhetoric that wassuppressed by the the political elements that have always been part of this debate”
“Wx, not climate …”
The cold spring was also the order of the day here in Western Europe, that is until only a few days ago when spring finally made its debut. And because the winter had been so long, it was as if someone had let the cows out of the barn for the first time in weeks. With temperatures in the 50s, people were suddenly driving their convertibles, running around in shorts and t-shirts and flocking to the garden center.
In western Europe the blue maps like those shown above were all we saw this winter and spring.
Ron de Haan
Shhhhhhhhhh…
Mentioning sunsüpots here will cause spots to appear. It’s Anthony’s Gore effect.
Really, spring is here? Havent been feeling it up here in Washington State, must be taking its time to get here.
The science of phenology.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phenology
The power of cognitive dissonance.
I recall that Newsweek article from April 1975, and the threats of a coming ice age. In it, it pointed to a shorter growing season in the UK (by about 2 weeks) compared to 1950.
Now that the scare of the day is global warming, growings seasons are longer, animals are appearing north of their normal stomping grounds {compared to 30 years ago – hmmmmm – during the ice age scare}.
Seems that people see what they want to see; facts and reality too often get in the way of the scare of the day. In another quarter century, mankind’s short attention span will show itself as the focus turns to the crisis of another coming ice age – just as the climate gets ready to start warming again.
The more things change …
We’re to have a freeze tonight and possibly tomorrow night here in Austin, Texas. That would be one month later than average.
First freeze last fall was nearly three weeks earlier than average.
Last freeze last spring was more than two weeks later than average.
Sorry to present incontrovertible, real anecdotal data when there are so many good computer models out there — I’m behind the times!
Aron
Not to worry about cold resulting in reduced agriculture.
California’s government and its advisors tell us (over and over and over) that California will see hotter temperatures — thus creating greater agricultural opportunities. If the states with water would just send it our way, we will grow the food.
Problem solved.
[sarc off now]
Well Spring is here in Northern California, and has been for at least a month; but then it is also very cold in the mornings.
As for the Wilkins ice shelf on the west coast of the Antarctic peninsula, the darn thin is pretty much on the Antarctic circle, and is sticking out into the southern ocean. So every day you have a tidal bulge sloshing under that floating ice. Is it any wonder that it breaks up from time to time. There are pices of that shelf that have broken up and regrown over just the last 50-60 years or so, so they are now a different thickness from surrounding areas because of precipitation.
Given that we had some warming from the 1970s to the 2000s or thereabouts, it is not remarkable that those shelves might have thinned to where breaks occur.
Next they will be telling us that the whole Antarctic ice sheet is about to slide into the southern ocean. Hasn’t done so in the last 3/4 million years or so, according to ice cores; so don’t hold your breath.
George
But isn’t Antarctic Ice above average and growing nicely currently? At least the cryosphere page shows this.
Also the spotless day count currently stands at 593 days, 600 will be quite a milestone for recent solar data as the average is 485 days.
Yeah, there’s no red, red robin around here yet.
The silent shriek, of the disappearing Cascade snowpack, is deafening!
Didn’t someone lose their job over that?
Refer to http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/antarctic.seaice.color.004.png
Current Ice growth along the Wilkins Ice shelf side of the peninsula is minimal and not much is happening here but on the other side of the peninsula (east of it), ice is booming. This sharp contrast of ice, split apart by that thin peninsula indicates either volcanic activity is hampering ice formation and/or leading to fractures on the Wilkins side, or more likely a warm Pacific oceanic current is having some sort of effect.