The Week That Was: 2026-09-12 (September 12, 2026)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “To know that we know what we know, and to know that we do not know what we do not know, that is true knowledge.” — Nicolaus Copernicus
Number of the Week: 0.4°F (0.4F°) or 0.2°C (0.2C°)
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: This TWTW begins with a discussion of Willie Soon’s contribution to the book Canary In a Climate World. It continues with a discussion of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which is occurring. TWTW discusses the concept of climate of tipping points as well as two separate criticisms of the new “Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence: 4th Edition.” TWTW concludes with a discussion of a new censor for non-conforming climate science.
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The Sun: Writing for Climate Change Nexus John Robson begins his description of the chapter by astrophysicist Willie Soon in Canary In a Climate World by discussing the efforts of outside groups to oust Soon from the Harvard-Smithsonian Observatory. But Soon does not mention this in his chapter. Instead, Soon focuses on his work and the founding of the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences (CERES) (CERES-Science) with the late Michael Connolly and Ronan Connolly. Soon writes:
“For over thirty years, my research has focused on solar physics, solar irradiance, and solar-terrestrial interactions. The work – conducted with colleagues including Dr. Michael Connolly and Dr. Ronan Connolly – shows that variations in solar output and magnetic activity are not peripheral effects. They are fundamental drivers of comate variability on decadal to centennial timescales. When these solar influences are properly accounted for, the dominance attributed to carbon dioxide becomes far less certain.”
Robson sums some of the biases Soon identifies in the surface temperature datasets and its consequences as follows:
“Soon discusses the way urbanization contaminates global temperature data sets. We all know that measurements collected in Urban Heat Islands are biased towards too much warming. The IPCC deals with it by blending the urban with rural data, then claims without proof that any remaining bias in the warming trend is less than ten percent. But, Soon points out, all that approach does is spread the bias out to rural data. When he and his coauthors have assembled rural-only data sets, surely the obvious way to eliminate urban distortions, about eighty percent of the warming over the last century or so disappears.
Soon also discusses the difficulty of reconstructing solar variability prior to the satellite era. There are over two dozen such reconstructions in the literature, some of which imply the sun contributed nothing to climate change and some which imply the sun can explain almost all of it. He and his colleagues have compiled the range of estimates and documented how the IPCC narrowed the list of which ones they cite down to those that, of course, show no influence of the sun on climate.
He also discusses the way biased climate science feeds directly into faulty climate policy. And how the connection to politics leads to self-reinforcing corruption mechanisms in climate science. And, he wisely cautions:
‘This does not require malicious intent. It requires only normal behavior within constrained systems. Young scientists quickly learn which questions are ‘safe’ to ask and which are not. Entire disciplines begin to self-censor, not through explicit prohibition, but through career survival… The result is a form of scientific monoculture.’
These observations are not merely sensible. They are the result of harsh experience, from someone who experienced it all on the inside and lived to tell about it.”
Dr. Soon is a director of SEPP and a recipient of the Frederick Seitz Memorial Award. In his chapter Soon asserts: [Boldface in text added]
“Detection Is Not Attribution
The IPCC distinguishes between detecting climate change and attributing its causes. Even if warming is detected attribution requires correctly identifying the mechanisms driving that change.
Here, the IPCC places overwhelming emphasis on anthropogenic greenhouse gases while minimizing natural forcings such as solar variability and volcanic activity. This imbalance is not supported by the broader scientific literature.
Carbon dioxide may account for some warming since approximately 1970, but it fails to explain earlier climate variations. Solar variability, by contrast, aligns with temperature changes across centuries.”
Soon discusses Solar Variability and Climate Across Time then continues as follows:
“The Sun’s Role: Reduced by Design
There are at least 27 published reconstructions of total solar irradiance, representing different interpretations of how solar output has varied over time. Some show relatively modest change; other indicate substantially larger variability capable of influence Earth’s climate.
Earlier IPCC reports referenced multiple solar reconstructions. By the Sixth Assessment Report in 2021, the IPCC relied on a single low-variability solar model, despite no decisive advances in solar physics that would invalidate the others. This narrowing of acceptable estimates did not result from new evidence but from selective exclusion.
Even satellite-era measurements of solar irradiance are not free from uncertainty. Different instruments and calibration methods yield different absolute baselines, and the process of stitching multiple satellite records together requires assumptions that directly affect long-term trends. These uncertainties are often comparable in magnitude to the incremental radiative forcing attributed to increases in carbon dioxide, yet they are rarely acknowledged in public-facing attribution claims.
By choosing a solar reconstruction that minimizes variability, the IPCC ensures that the Sun’s contribution appears negligible, an outcome driven by selective and biased procedures rather than by physics.
What Comprehensive Attribution Studies Reveal
In a major multi-author review involving researchers from 18 countries, we examined multiple temperature datasets alongside both anthropogenic and natural forcing factors. When broader solar reconstructions are included, natural variability explains a substantial fraction of observed climate change.
The assertion that natural climate drivers have been ruled out is therefore untenable.
Solar variability does not merely ‘contribute’ to climate change, it structures it. Ignoring this fact distorts attribution and leads to flawed conclusions.”
Soon then discusses the policy consequences of incomplete science and why the climate narrative Became locked in. His conclusion states: [Boldface in text added]
“Conclusion
Climate science must be grounded in observation, physics, and full representation of natural variability. When urban heat island effects are properly accounted for and when the Sun’s variability is honestly incorporated, the narrative of carbon dioxide as the dominant climate driver weakens considerably.
The Sun has shaped Earth’s climate for billions of years. To assume it has suddenly become irrelevant is not science—it is pure speculation or invalidated assumption.
If natural variability plays a significant role, as the evidence indicates, then policies focused exclusively on carbon dioxide are unlikely to deliver their promised outcomes. More importantly, a scientific system that discourages fundamental questions about data quality, measurement integrity, and natural drivers risks losing public trust altogether.
Scientific progress depends on the willingness to question foundational assumptions, to follow evidence wherever it leads, and to tolerate dissent—especially when science is being used to justify profound societal change.”
For the link to Robson’s comments see Challenging the Orthodoxy, for the CERES-Science website see https://www.ceres-science.com/ especially the publications link. Item # 16 gives the link to “The Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Land Surface Warming (1850–2018) in Terms of Human and Natural Factors: Challenges of Inadequate Data” by multiple authors published in Climate on Aug 28, 2023, and Item #17 gives the link to “Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Trends Since 1850” published in Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics on Sep 27, 2023.
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ENSO: Well before Europeans arrived, native Americans recognized the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the devastating effect that an El Niño had on the fishing off the coast of Peru by sacrificing virgins when an El Niño appeared. The strong winds to the west caused an upwelling of ocean currents bringing cold water with carbon dioxide and other nutrients to the surface, attracting an abundance of fish. The region is one of the best primary production areas for fisheries. When the Westerly winds stopped, the upwelling stopped, and the fishing became poor. Today, we know that a strong El Niño has weather impacts throughout the world.
Last week’s TWTW linked to the discussion by Cliff Mass who pointed out that generally the waters off Hawaii are too cold for hurricanes (tropical cyclones). Last week, there were three tropical storms in the central Pacific and a category 2 hurricane (tropical cyclone) struck Kaua’i and Nihau on September 7.
A great deal has been written about the current El Niño, much of it with exaggeration. The Climate Prediction Center / NCEP of NOAA reports on September 8:
- “El Niño is present.
- Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
- The atmospheric circulation anomalies over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are consistent with El Niño.
- El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.”
The latest official ENSO Outlook (Aug 13, 2026) states:
“During September-November through November-January 2026-27, there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño. During the October-December 2026 season, there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.”
This week an updated official ENSO Outlook is due, and we shall see what it states.
Meteorologist Cliff Mass explains that the impact of a strong El Niño is not necessarily an amplification of a regular El Niño, at least for the Pacific Northwest. He writes:
“For example, the Summit at Snoqualmie folks looked at the snow statistics associated with very strong El Niño years and found snow totals near normal (link here)
And in my previous blog on very strong El Niños, I found the same thing: Northwest snowpack can be quite decent during ‘super’ El Niño years.
So how can this be?
Why do moderate El Niños cause one impact and ‘super’ El Niños result in something different?
Let’s figure this out using real data.”
Mass continues with an explanation. For the full post see link under Changing Weather, for the full report on the El Niño see link under Measurement Issues – Surface.
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Tipping Points: Climate tipping points are one of the many absurd concepts bantered by those who are sounding climate alarm. John Robson provides a good discussion about them. He writes in part:
“Climate science is all about tipping points. Dozens of them lurking out there waiting to plunge us inexorably into inescapable doom one after another. And thus, it is that another alert viewer asked us to respond to a video from last year about climate tipping points that we decided was worth it, partly because the channel in question has very nearly three quarters of a million subscribers and the video in question over 635k views so someone’s finding it persuasive, even impressive. But it seems to us that they shouldn’t, and not only because the presenter starts by showing us 16 such points after demonstrating with a couple of cups of blue stuff on a teeter-totter that tipping is binary. If there are more than a dozen, they should be called ‘things that could go wrong.’ Also, all these things are highly speculative and not accidentally. And finally, the narrator quickly reveals that he has no idea what a ‘tipping point’ even is and, given the positive response, that his audience doesn’t either.”
See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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National Academies: Both Tom Harris of the International Climate Science Coalition and David Wojick of CFACT criticized the new “Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence: 4th Edition” from the Federal Judicial Center and the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (“NASEM”). Harris wrote in part:
“So-called ‘attribution science’ generally involves using computer modeling to simulate how an extreme event would have unfolded under pre-industrial climate conditions. Researchers then compare the hypothetical disaster with the real one to determine how human‑caused climate change supposedly affected the event’s likelihood or intensity.
The problem is that models still can’t reliably simulate basic atmospheric dynamics, and many rapid-attribution studies routinely skip peer review entirely. As such, there is nothing scientific or data-driven about assigning a precise dollar figure to the damage caused by one company’s emissions because there is no way to quantify such an amount. In fact, many of the studies the 2026 NASEM Attribution Report leans on rely on climate benchmarks and scenarios that regulators have since abandoned as implausible.”
Wojick writes in part:
The ‘How Science Works’ chapter is pages 47 to 111 in Volume one.
One of the two authors, Professor Michael Weisberg is a leading alarmist activist. His university website calls him a ‘climate diplomat’ because he is active in UN climate negotiations including the infamous ‘loss and damage’ reparations funding scheme.
‘How Science Works’ gets off to a quick bad start. The very first paragraph contains this gem of alarmism: ‘…. public relations campaigns have misled the public about the true state of scientific consensus regarding certain scientific issues.’ Citation: Naomi Oreskes & Erik M. Conway, ‘Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming’ (2010)
This ridiculous Oreskes book is a pillar of climate alarmism. So, the bogus thrust of the chapter is that climate alarmism is a consensus and skepticism is a public relations stunt. This is pure advocacy.
Most of the rest of the chapter is a long, false claim that science works by consensus. It mostly works by debate, as scientists struggle to explain how the natural world works. These proposed explanations are debated by the scientific community, sometimes in complex ways and often for a long time without resolution.
Consensus does have a very long-term role to play because science is an ever-growing body of knowledge. But scientific activity is mostly a lively marketplace of argument.
The fundamental scientific method is very simple. Given some observations people propose various hypotheses to explain them. These hypotheses are then tested against additional observations. In theory, if the testing observations do not support the hypothesis, it is rejected.
In modern science, this seemingly simple process can become very complex, especially when trying to explain complex natural systems. For example, individual scientists may perform just part of the process. Then, too, observations are often ‘theory laden,’ so they can be challenged. In addition, hypotheses can be very complex, making it hard to know where the error lies.
Not only are hypotheses and observations often debated, but these debates can also last a long time. In major cases, they lead to alternative schools of thought (which is where human caused climate change is today).
For example, the hot debate between particle and wave theories of light lasted over 200 years. The climate change debate is now well over 40 years old.”
After discussing the lack of public debates in the one-sided journals promoting CO2-caused climate change Wojack writes:
“The unscientific term ‘consensus’ occurs over 70 times in ‘How science works.’ The key word ‘debate’ occurs just four times near the end. Ironically, one of these is a statement that ‘in science, debates relating to scientific evidence generally play out over many years…..’ Max Planck put it very nicely: ‘Your ideas will (only) be accepted when your students become journal editors.’ The climate science debate has lasted even longer, so the claim of consensus is wildly false.”
In attempting to be authorities, the authors for both the Federal Judicial Center and the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (“NASEM”) demonstrated that they do not understand that in physical sciences, physical evidence is the final, ultimate judge. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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A New Censor? Australian Tony Thomas has cautioned against forms of censorship that are occurring in Australia. For the UK public he identified a news rating organization called NewsGuard. He writes in part: [Boldface in original]
“It claims to be agnostic towards sites pushing political lines. By last June NewsGuard had assessed 36,000-plus global sites since 2018, rating 12,000 generally reliable. Since it started here in 2023 it’s rated 250 local sites, failing a fifth through scores below 50.
The one-fifth ‘untrustworthy’-rated sites in Australia in 2023 compares with UK (15%), Canada (4%), the US (46%), France (3’%) and Germany (25%). Half (50%) earned their failure for publishing alleged ‘disinformation” about climate change.”
In other words, NewsGuard regards skepticism as ‘disinformation,’ and any publication referring to it is ‘untrustworthy.’
See link under Censorship.
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Number of the Week: 0.4°F (0.4F°) or 0.2°C (0.2C°). The August 29 TWTW discussed a paper by John Christy et al. presenting observations of summer warming and winter cooling covering virtually all of the conterminous US from 1899 to 2025. They documented all the changes they needed to take to complete the dataset of the United States Historical Climate Network and why the records of certain stations could not be completed. In discussing the meaning of their results they state, in part:
“Overall, our project indicates that extremes in summer heat-related metrics for the CONUS [conterminous US] as defined in the four questions above do not show increasing trends, but rather modest negative trends, and thus appear to be substantially affected by other forcings such as natural variability in addition to GHGs. There are positive TMax metric trends in western regions which are countered by larger negative trends elsewhere.
The number of cold extreme events has declined in the past 30 years too and this is likely, in part, related to the development of infrastructure around the stations which disturbs the nocturnal boundary layer, inhibiting the formation of the cold, shallow layer in which TMin is observed. Additionally, this result may be an early sign of atmospheric warming of the coldest air masses by the added GHGs (e.g., Krayenhoff et al. 2018), though this hypothesis has not been confirmed as a direct result of GHGs (e.g., Huang et al. 2023).”
In short, there is no summer warming trend or a winter cooling trend in the long-term record for the conterminous 48 states of the United States. On September 9, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information published a report: “Monitoring the U.S. Temperature and Precipitation in August 2026: Warmest summer on record for the contiguous U.S.” The first of the Key Takeaways are:
- “Warmest summer on record: The average temperature for meteorological summer (June–August) 2026 was the warmest for the contiguous United States (CONUS) in the 132-year record, exceeding the previous records, set in 1936 and 2021, by 0.4°F.
- Warmest August on record: August 2026 averaged 75.6°F, the warmest August on record (1895–present) for the CONUS. Daytime maximum temperatures averaged 88.6°F across the CONUS, which was also the warmest on record.”
The precision of 0.4°F is suspicious. Given that NOAA’s previous claims of 2021 did not hold up to rigorous analysis, it will be interesting to see whether NOAA’s current claims will. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy and https://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2026/TWTW%20August%2029%202026.pdf for the August 29 TWTW.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Censorship
How NewsGuard hopes to send climate opponents broke
By Tony Thomas, Climate Scepticism, Sep 5, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
If only Chris Bowen had some answers he wouldn’t need a Ministry of Misinformation to attack critics
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 5, 2026
Link to: Misinformation: A climate policy risk
This paper explains how misinformation affects climate policy and what it means for the Climate Change Authority’s (the Authority’s) work.
By Staff, Climate Change Authority, Aug 24, 2026
Defining misinformation
For this paper, ‘misinformation’ is used as an umbrella term for misinformation (unintentionally false), disinformation (intentionally false) and malinformation (true information used with the intent to mislead). We have chosen misinformation as it is in common use. Experts often distinguish between the different terms.
While freedom of expression and debate are fundamental to democracy, these forms of information disorder can undermine informed public discussion and confidence in climate and energy policy.
[SEPP Comment: Chris Bowen has been the Australian minister for climate change and energy since 2022.]
Aussie Climate Minister Just Created a Climate “Misinformation” Unit with No Clear Mandate
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 8, 2026
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-fossil-fuels/
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming/
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, December 22, 2020
https://wvanwijngaarden.info.yorku.ca/files/2020/12/WThermal-Radiationf.pdf?x45936
Net Zero Averted Temperature Increase
By Richard Lindzen, William Happer, and William A. van Wijngaarden, CO2 Coalition, June 2024
Radiation Transport in Clouds
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Klimarealistene, Science of Climate Change, January 2025
https://scienceofclimatechange.org/wp-content/uploads/SCC-2025-vWijngaarden-Happer.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy
#Canary in a Climate World: Willie Soon
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 9, 2026
A tipping point right into the tip
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 9, 2026
The National Academies’ Climate Review Must Be Truly Independent
By Tom Harris, Real Clear Energy, Sep 10, 2026
Manual for judges saying “How Science Works” is very wrong on climate science
By David Wojick, CFACT, Sep 4, 2026
Is the New HIGH Climate Scenario Plausible?
Good news and bad news from a close look at the new CMIP7 scenarios
By Roger Pielke, Jr., The Honest Broker, Sep 7, 2026
[SEPP Comment: Unrealistic assumptions of future carbon dioxide emissions are one of the many problems with the UN IPCC reports. The critical one is the unrealistic estimate of the sensitivity of Earth’s climate to increasing CO2. The physical evidence from laboratory experiments long ago established that the relationship between carbon dioxide and temperatures is logarithmic; not linear or exponential.]
Cohler Crushes IPCC Circle of Lies
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Sep 5, 2026
Beyond the Narrative and Following the Data with Vijay Jayaraj | Climate Debrief
17 Minute Video, CO2 Coalition, Accessed Sep 11, 2026
Defending the Orthodoxy
Summer 2026 was the US’s hottest on record: NOAA
By Ryan Manchini, The Hill, Sep 10, 2026
Probable link: Monitoring the U.S. Temperature and Precipitation in August 2026
Warmest summer on record for the contiguous U.S.
By Staff, NOAA, Nation Centers for Environmental Information, Sep 9, 2026
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Heathrow expansion incompatible with UK legal climate targets, major report finds
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 6, 2026
One would, of course, have expected to see these anti-Heathrow findings from the Tyndall Centre and Friends of the Earth.
But it does indicate, I fear, that there will be plenty of meat on the bone for legal challenges.
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Claim: 1.5C Global Warming is Not a Magic Number
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 9, 2026
Secretary General António Gutteres is on Track to be the UN’s Biggest Climate Loser
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 5, 2026
The vultures circle Nepal
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 9, 2026
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 9, 2026
Is climate change Abe Lincoln’s fault?
By Kelvin Kemm, CFACT, Sep 6, 2026
Abraham Lincoln was president right at the end of the LIA, at a time when temperatures in the U.S. were about a degree colder than they are now.
Why the AI Merchants of Doom are Dead Wrong
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 11, 2026
As a software developer and increasingly an AI specialist, I urge you all, please don’t be fooled – AI doomsday is all infowars and mind games.
Problems in the Orthodoxy
The Importance of Being EDGAR
Some very important data
By Mark Hodgson, Climate Scepticism, Sep 10, 2026
Link to: EDGAR – Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research, 2026
By Staff, Joint Research Center, European Commission, Accessed Sep 11, 2026
From main findings: China, the United States, India, the EU27, Russia and Indonesia were the world’s largest GHG emitters in 2025. Together they account for 50.1% of global population, 62.3% of global gross domestic product, 63% of global fossil fuel consumption and 62% of global GHG emissions.
From Hodgson: The UK’s attempt to lead the way, whether globally, or among the small-mid level emitters, is failing abysmally. Hope and fine words are all very well, but there is no arguing with facts.
Norway Rejects Climate Orthodoxy’s False Choice, Builds Wealth
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Sep 10, 2026
Although not an EU member, Norway is a close ally and Europe’s largest gas supplier, meeting about 30% of the demand across the European Union and Britain. Last year Norwegian gas output ran near record levels and oil production hit its highest mark since 2009.
The EU currently backs a ban on new Arctic drilling on environmental grounds, while buying the gas that keeps its factories running. Anders Opedal, CEO of Norwegian multinational energy company Equinor, has said that producers of Barents oil and natural gas will find buyers somewhere else if Europe refuses to buy.
[SEPP Comment: Norway ratified the Paris agreement in 2016.]
Nepal Wants a $5 Billion Climate Handout from UN for a Himalayan Bedrock Collapse
Nepal’s request should be rejected unless the U.N. would likewise fund U.S. recovery from a San Andreas earthquake or Cascadia tsunami.
By Leslie Eastman, Legal Insurrection, Sep 4, 2026
The Earth does not need climate change to produce earthquakes, landslides, and tsunamis, and turning every natural disaster into a climate-money shakedown is neither science nor justice.
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
The effect of additional CO2 on Purging Nut
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 9, 2026
From the CO2 Science.org archive.
Seeking a Common Ground
NSF leadership in a new golden age of science
By Staff, NSF Sep 10, 2026
Link to: A Report to the President July 2026: Science: A New Golden Age
By Michael Kratsios, Assistant to the President for Science and Technology, Director, Office of Science and Technology Policy, July 21, 2026
Environmental Priorities vs. ‘Climate Change’
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Sep 11, 2026
Link to: Welfare in the 21st century: Increasing development, reducing inequality, the impact of climate change, and the cost of climate policies
By Bjorn Lomborg, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, July 2020
Classic articles are worth remembering. One in the environmental field was a prioritization of environmental issues back in 2020 by Bjorn Lomborg, “Welfare in the 21st century: Increasing development, reducing inequality, the impact of climate change, and the cost of climate policies”
How AI Tools are Changing Research, Communication, and Education
What I’ve learned as I have developed AI expertise
By Roger Pielke Jr., The Honest Broker, Sep 6, 2026
Introducing the THB Build Your Own Climate Scenario Tool
Build a bespoke climate scenario, project future temperatures, and compare with CMIP7
By Roger Pielke Jr., The Honest Broker, Sep 9, 2026
Science, Policy, and Evidence
UK Energy Schizophrenia (all pain, no gain)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Sep 8, 2026
Comment: The North Sea discussion falsely blames geology rather than government intervention for the decline in North Sea production. Back in the 1970s, the U.S. self-sabotaged its domestic oil and gas industry on the false notion of Peak Oil and Peak Gas. Today, UK energy planners want to shift blame from Net Zero policies to the natural market.
[SEPP Comment: Not discussed is the issue of technology change. In the 1970s various technologies had not been developed. These technologies include use of proppants to keep fractured rock formations open after fracking, horizontal drilling, deepwater drilling, high-pressure blowout preventers, precision drilling, etc. UK’s claim of exhaustion of the North Sea’s fields is absurd, and Norway opening new finds continues to prove it.]
Measurement Issues — Surface
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
By Staff, Climate Prediction Center / NCEP, NOAA, Sep 8, 2026
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
Global Temperature Report
By Staff, The Earth System Science Center, University of Alabama in Huntsville, August 2026
Map and Graph: https://www.uah.edu/aosc/data-products/global-temperature-report
Text: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/aosc/Global_Temperature_Report/2026_Reports/GTR_202608.pdf
August 2026 El Nino Drives Global UAH Warming
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Sep 5, 2026
August 2026 Temperatures Change, CO2 Follows
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Sep 7, 2026
Changes in CO2 follow changes in global temperatures on all time scales, from last month’s observations to ice core datasets spanning millennia. Since CO2 is the lagging variable, it cannot logically be the cause of temperature, the leading variable. It is folly to imagine that by reducing human emissions of CO2, we can change global temperatures, which are obviously driven by other factors.
Changing Weather
There have been no hurricanes in the Atlantic — Yet! Making 2026 the quietest since satellite tracking began in 1966
By Joel Abbott, Climate Depot, Sep 8, 2026
[SEPP Comment: Is this extreme weather?]
The Effects of “Super” El Ninos Are Surprisingly Different Than Some Suggest
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Sep 11, 2026
It is now clear that a very strong or “super” El Niño will be in place this year.
Some are even calling it a GODZILLA El Niño.
US Tornado Season 2025
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 11, 2026
Link to: Severe Weather Maps, Graphics, and Data Page
By Staff, Storm Prediction Center, NOAA’s National Weather Service, Apr 24, 2026
From Homewood: They claim that tornadoes have shot up in frequency since the 1950s. But they know this is an outright lie, because they also used to include this page in their reports:
[SEPP Comment: From 1996 to 2025 Texas had the highest average of tornadoes each year with 130, next highest is Kansas with 81. Yet Texas had only an average of 4 deaths per year while Alabama with an average of 59 tornadoes had an average of 13 deaths. Since 2006, data has shown that the state with the highest average annual tornadoes per 10K Square Miles per State were Mississippi and Alabama with 13, Oklahoma and Illinois had 11. Texas had 4, same as Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Minnesota.]
Seattle and Weather Disasters. We Can Do Better Than Los Angeles and New Orleans!
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Sep 7, 2026
Weather prediction has become far more skillful in recent decades, with nearly all major regional weather/climate threats accurately predicted days in advance.
Unfortunately, several major cities have not taken advantage of the profoundly more skillful forecasts, resulting in unnecessarily severe loss of life and property.
For example, Los Angeles experienced immense damage and many deaths from the 2025 wildfires, the result of a well-forecast Santa Ana wind event.
Thousands died in New Orleans from Hurricane Katrina, whose track was skillfully forecast several days before.
More Good News Regarding Northwest Wildfires
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Sep 9, 2026
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
New Study: The Antarctic Ice Sheet Gained Mass From 2020-2024 Due To Staggering Snow And Ice Accumulation
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 7, 2026
Link to paper: Atmospheric rivers and winter sea ice drive recent reversal in Antarctic ice mass loss
By Marlen Kolbe, et al., Nature, Communications Earth & Environment, Feb 3, 2026
From abstract: Since 2016, however, satellite gravimetry data reveal a slowdown in net Antarctic ice mass loss and a net mass gain since 2020, despite increases in dynamically-driven ice loss by discharge from outlet glaciers. Here we use a reanalysis and regional climate model to show that this reversal is primarily due to positive surface mass balance anomalies, which result from increased precipitation driven by enhanced atmospheric river activity, strengthened westerlies, and reduced sea ice extent.
From conclusions: Our findings also show that most of the additional uptake of moisture during ARs [Atmospheric Rivers] over a sea ice-free Southern Ocean is lost locally or on ice shelves, while the strength of the higher-elevation moisture flow during ARs is largely unaffected by sea ice. Our experiments still confirm that Antarctic SMB does increase due to sea ice loss, even if relatively small, and we note that larger SST increases than imposed here could lead to more precipitation (and also enhanced ice melt).
From Richard: Antarctica as a whole has only contributed 0.35 cm to sea level rise since 2003.
Multiyear tropical warm pool warming drives slowdown in Antarctic mass loss
By Yunhe Wang, et al., Nature, Aug 19, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
From abstract: Antarctic mass loss has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise for most of the last few decades, mainly driven by West Antarctica1. During 2021–2023, however, a sharp increase in surface mass balance over Queen Mary Land and Wilkes Land in East Antarctica offset West Antarctic loss and slowed the rate of total ice mass loss2,3. Although this slowdown is consistent with the expected long-term precipitation response to global warming through poleward-shifted storm tracks and Antarctic moistening4, our results point to a different mechanism. Here we show that the recent ice mass gain was linked to a recurrent atmospheric teleconnection driven by sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical warm pool, which experienced unusually persistent warming from 2021 to 2023 relative to the previous two decades. On the basis of observations and model experiments, we find that tropical warm pool warming excites a poleward-propagating Rossby-wave train that induces a high-pressure anomaly over East Antarctica, enhancing Queen Mary Land and Wilkes Land precipitation and driving the observed mass gain, with moisture primarily sourced from the mid-latitude Indian Ocean. Similar multiyear warming in the tropical warm pool recurs about once per decade in observations and historical simulations, and its influence on precipitation is distinct from the effects of global warming. Therefore, the recent Antarctic Ice Sheet mass gain is probably temporary and does not yet reflect a sustained, global-warming-driven moistening of Antarctica.
Arctic Report card Summer 2026
By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Sep 6, 2026
For the first time on record, the North Pole never made it above freezing this summer.
The Greenland ice sheet gained 518 billion tons of new ice over the past year, which was 40% above the 1981-2020 average. It has been above average in six out of the last nine years.
Some boring news to end the summer with
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 9, 2026
Link to: End-Of-August Arctic Sea Ice Extent Hasn’t Fallen In 20 Years, Official Data Show!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 29, 2026
[SEPP Comment: Robson double-checked findings reported by Gosselin.]
Greenland’s Icecap Update
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 7, 2026
Changing Seas
The Great Barrier Reef refuses to die on schedule
By Bjorn Lomborg, Los Angeles Times, Sep 6, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to: Long-Term Monitoring Program Great Barrier Reef Annual Summary Report of Coral Reef Condition 2025-2026
By Staff, Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS), Aug 11, 2026
https://www.aims.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-08/AIMS_LTMP_Report_GBR_Coral_Status_2025_2026.pdf
Study: Ocean Heating Rates From Thousands Of Years Ago ‘Dwarf’ Modern Ocean Heating Rates
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 7, 2026
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Bill Gates’ Telegraph Fall for Zika Virus Scam
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 4, 2026
The Telegraph should carry a health warning every time they publish fake news stories by the Bill Gates’ funded Global Health Security:
Democracy in AImerica
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 9, 2026
AP and Fortune Magazine Ignore Population Trends To Blame Climate Change for Bear Encounters
By Linnea Lueken, Climate Realism, Sep 10, 2026
Wrong, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Nuclear Power Isn’t the Reliability Problem
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Sep 9, 2026
Good journalism requires comparison, context, and perspective. Instead, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists presents occasional nuclear weather-related outages as though they invalidate decades of exceptional operating performance while giving only passing mention to the fact that its favored alternatives are completely dependent on the weather from the moment they begin generating electricity. That is bogus scaremongering against nuclear technology.
Britain could be the new Spain
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 6, 2026
Sorry, Fortune, Climate Change Is Hardly the Prime Influence on Sardine Fisheries
By Linnea Lueken, Climate Realism, Sep. 4, 2026
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
ONS Peddling Fake Heatwave Deaths Scare
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 8, 2026
Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that from 1988 to 2025, about 42,000 people died on the hottest days. On the coldest days almost 150,000 died, in the same period.
From Homewood: The number of heat-related deaths itself is absurdly meaningless – 42,000 sounds a lot, but over 38 years it is barely a thousand a year. Compared to annual deaths of over 600,000, that is microscopically tiny. These deaths are supposedly excess deaths over and above what might have been expected.
But the numbers are not even calculated from actual data, which should be a simple enough task; instead, they are “modelled estimates”, as the ONS describe:.
However, data suggest the difference between the numbers of deaths because of cold and heat is shrinking.
Such a shoddy misuse of statistics puts the ONS in a bad light. It’s even worse when it is clearly being done at Government diktat.
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Wait, they had climate?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 9, 2026
While National Geographic tries to turn past bad weather into evidence that there never used to be bad weather, we offer a disquieting final thought. Evidently our ancestors were not dolts when it came to things like storms and earthquakes. But we are, so the enormous advances in materials and engineering have left us worse off due to the precipitous retreat in good sense.
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Climate Extremists Target, Attack Large-Scale Power Grid Infrastructure In Germany!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 6, 2026
Double standard
Federal prosecutors claim they need concrete evidence that a suspect was physically at the site or directly participated in constructing the device—mere association with radical spaces or possession of extremist literature is insufficient under German law – a standard that is rarely applied, however, when it comes to rightwing radicals.
Worse, even vocal conservative voices see their homes raided by the police before dawn for just making critical comments (all protected by “freedom of speech”) on social media. Here, German police and prosecutors are especially quick to raid homes, detain individuals indefinitely, confiscate property, close bank accounts and seize mobile devices.
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Global Shipping Carbon Tax Negotiations Stall thanks to President Trump
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 6, 2026
Make no mistake, this International Maritime Organization (IMO) negotiation is an attempt by the rest of the world to impose a tax on US prosperity. While China handles more maritime traffic than the USA, China had an escape plan, they wanted the UN to mandate use of synthetic Chinese fuel, allegedly produced using renewable energy, in place of the low cost diesel sludge which international cargo ships currently use for fuel.
Questioning European Green
What To Do About Net Zero
My speech to the Reform fringe.
By David Turver, Eigen Values, Sep 6, 2026
Labour gives influencers £170k to promote net zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 11, 2026
“It’s clear Labour want to use influencers to convince the public that this is in some way greener and cleaner – it’s all smoke and mirrors.”
Questioning Green Elsewhere
The Gray New Deal
Sorry, AOC, we’re doing the Gray New Deal, not the Green one
By Isaac Orr and Mitch Rolling, Energy Bad Boys, Sep 5, 2026
Link to: Global Oil and Gas Plant Tracker
The Global Oil and Gas Plant Tracker is a worldwide dataset of oil- and gas-fired power plants.
By Staff, Global Energy Monitor.org, Accessed Sep 8, 2026
Overview
Gas-fired capacity in development has risen in the last few years, due to increasing demand from electrification, industrialization, and data centers.
Litigation Issues
Federal appeals court says clean drinking water is not a constitutional right
By Rob Taub, The Hill, Sep 10, 2026
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit — in a 10-5 ruling — said the alleged contamination in Jackson, Miss., did not violate rights protected by the 14th Amendment.
The judge also noted that the city’s mismanagement, which residents blame for their lead exposure, falls outside the constitutional protection.
It also found no constitutional right to truthful information from government officials during a public health crisis.
New UT Report: Climate Litigation and the Campaign to Influence the Judiciary
By Michael Toth, Real Clear Energy, Sep 11, 2026
Link to paper: A Finger on the Scales: Climate Litigation and the Campaign to Influence the Judiciary
By Michael Toth, Civitas Institute, The University of Texas at Austin, Sep 9, 2026
My latest research paper presents the first full taxonomy of a coordinated, multi-year campaign designed to shape how the American judiciary understands climate litigation. It documents how the Environmental Law Institute (ELI) built an extensive educational apparatus to train judges on climate issues—in the words of one session attendee— “from what would effectively be the plaintiff’s side.”
Energy Issues – General
How to Handle Political Attacks on Data Center Support? Be Bold, Proud, and Unapologetic.
By Gary Abernathy, Real Clear Energy, Sep 11, 2026
Energy Issues – Europe
Wham Bam CBAM
We wanna be like you, EU
By Mark Hodgson, Climate Scepticism, Sep 11, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to policy paper: Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): Policy summary
By Staff, HM Revenue & Customs, Gov.UK, Sep 9 2026
One can live in hope, but it seems unlikely, not least since the Government is now seeking to introduce a new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) from the beginning of next year. A summary of its complex provisions can be found here.
If one believes in the need to reduce consumption (as opposed to territorial) greenhouse gas emissions, then the theory behind the CBAM makes sense of a sort:
CBAM…will ensure highly traded, carbon intensive products from jurisdictions outside the UK face a comparable carbon price to that paid by UK manufacturers, so that UK decarbonisation efforts lead to a true reduction in global emissions rather than simply displacing carbon emissions overseas.
Net Zero Grid Upgrades Running out of Control.
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 11, 2026
Labour tax raids make US gas cheaper than North Sea supplies
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 5, 2026
From the Telegraph:
The cost of drilling and delivering new gas from the UK Continental Shelf is now about 50pc higher than the cost of sending US liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe, according to analysis by Thunder Said Energy.
This is despite the fact the American figure includes extraction, the cost of liquefaction and shipping the gas thousands of miles across the Atlantic.
Analysts at Thunder blamed the “totally crazy” oil and gas windfall tax first imposed by the Conservatives, and then expanded under Labour, for driving up the cost of production.
Energy Issues – Australia
Aussie Activists Moaning about Massive New “Climate Bomb” Gas Field in the Northern Territory
By Eri c Worrall, WUWT, Sep 8, 2026
Who needs unreliable solar when you have reliable gas?
Chris Bowen clangers: Coal is the most unreliable energy, and when it goes down prices go up?!
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 8, 2026
[SEPP Comment: Chris Bowen has been the Australian minister for climate change and energy since 2022.]
Surprise! Government battery bubble feeds crime, corruption, incompetence, safety breaches…
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 10, 2026
Energy Issues – Elsewhere non-US
Destroying the tax to save it
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 9, 2026
Last week we cited, as evidence of Mark Carney’s ongoing climate fanaticism, the decision to resume the federal excise tax on gasoline after Labour Day. And then (ahem) the day our Newsletter went out, news broke that his regime would instead continue the suspension through January, then impose it at half its former rate through March then put it back up. Which we submit is not evidence that he has abandoned his climate fanaticism, or his belief that the Green Energy Transition will make us all healthy, wealthy and blithe, but that practical difficulties in getting us to the New Jerusalem with radiant green walls excuse a little hypocrisy.
And the odd thing here is that in one sense it’s clearly true. Putting whacking great taxes on essentials like gas makes everyday life less affordable. (And the non-everyday life too, whatever it is; intermittent life, perhaps, or weekend life, or holiday life.) But they’ve been telling us for decades, literally decades, that moving from oil and gas to wind and solar (plus hydro) would lower costs. So why doesn’t taxing already overly expensive gas force us to switch to cheaper and better alternatives? They cannot explain and when you can’t understand something you don’t cope well with it.
Energy Issues — US
To Power America’s Growth, We Need to Build Ahead
By David Holt, Real Clear Energy, Sep 9, 2026
Link to report: DOE’s Office of Electricity Publishes 2026 Draft National Transmission Needs Study to Strengthen America’s Grid
By Staff, Office of Electricity, July 9, 2026
DOE report shows pressing need for more electric transmission infrastructure to power a reliable and secure grid.
[SEPP Comment: Transmission is necessary but not sufficient for reliable, affordable electricity. Generation must be reliable and affordable as well.]
RGGI Auction Clearing Price Results
By Roger Caiazza, WUWT, Sep 11, 2026
Prior to the auction I said I would not be surprised it the price exceeded $35 a ton. I noted that if it did it would be real-time confirmation that the price trajectory regulators have not acknowledged is one more sign that the states’ own cost-containment tools — the mechanism they cite as evidence that consumer costs will be manageable — can no longer do the job they were designed to do. Given these cost impacts it is past time to pause RGGI.
Preparing the Next Generation of Pennsylvania’s Workforce to Power Our Future
By Carl A. Marrara, Real Clear Energy, Sep 8, 2026
But those careers are available and rewarding. Like many industries, the energy sector has an aging workforce and too little young talent to fill vacancies. The U.S. energy sector employed 8.5 million people in 2024, representing 5-6% of all American jobs. The median wage was $58,810, nearly 19% above the nationwide median. Median wages exceeded $62,000 in fuels and $65,000 in electric power generation. These are careers capable of supporting families and strengthening Pennsylvania’s communities.
Many do not require a traditional four-year degree.
The Congressional Race in the County That Powers Colorado
By Amy Oliver Cooke, Real Clear Energy, Sep 10, 2026
The Colorado Public Utilities Commission (PUC) projects that Xcel Energy, the largest utility in the state, may see residential rates rise 20 to 30% by 2027, and as much as 55% by 2029, over 2024 levels, if load growth comes in below forecast.
This is a result of Colorado prioritizing carbon emissions over whether the lights stay on or families can afford their power. The district producing Colorado’s energy should think hard before sending someone who has spent a career working against the industry and driving up costs for Colorado families.
Nuclear Energy and Fears
DOE Closes $1.9-Billion Loan to Restart Duane Arnold Nuclear Plant
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Sep 8, 2026
Duane Arnold closed in August 2020 after running for 45 years. The 615-MW facility in Palo, in Linn County, was shut down after sustaining damage from a derecho wind event, with officials in part determining it did not make economic sense to repair the power plant. Duane Arnold was Iowa’s only nuclear power station.
Claim: Solar saved the day when Heatwaves Forced Shutdowns of European Nuclear Plants
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 9, 2026
The article itself admitted the shutdowns weren’t a nuclear problem, they were a water supply problem.
Nuclear waste storage ….. no big deal
By Kelvin Kemm, CFACT, Sep 3, 2026
A highly useful property of all radioactive materials is that they constantly advertise their presence. It is like a cricket in his hole in the lawn. His chirping tells you where he is. With a Geiger counter, even a radioactive pinhead is easy to find in your lawn. It calls you. But a lump of Arsenic is extremely difficult to find, because it hides. There is arsenic in advanced solar panels, but nobody panics about that.
U.S. Nuclear Waste: History of a Failed Endeavor
By Kennedy Maize, Master Resource, Sep 10, 2026
The Trump Administration’s reform of energy policy has recently reached nuclear waste. A leaked White House document, reported Politico, prioritized the idea of greater state participation for localized, decentralized storage. One federal repository like Yucca Mountain would be deemphasized. According to Politico, “In exchange for bolstering nuclear fuel production and storing waste, the White House indicated states could see a surge of new business, including nuclear power plants and energy-intensive data centers.”
The saga continues.
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Kathy Hochul’s Empty Pledge on Energy Affordability
Until New York puts a halt to virtue-signaling climate policies, the state’s costs will keep going up.
By Jonathan A. Lesser, City Journal, Sep 4, 2026
The much larger Empire Wind project is slated to start operating next year. Ratepayers will pay $155/MWh for that project’s electricity. By comparison, in 2025, the average wholesale price of electricity in the state was only about $75/MWh—and even that much primarily because of high natural gas costs for New York generators.
California Dreaming
EDWARD RING: Comments on the “Water Quality Control Plan” for the Delta
By Edward Ring, Maven’s Notebook, Sep 10, 2026
Link to Draft Report: Water Quality Control Plan for the San Francisco Bay/Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Watershed
By Staff, State Water Resources Control Board, August 2026
When attempting to grasp what this document will mean for the future of California’s water supply and water quality, the sheer volume and the inclusivity built into the plan’s processes point to the biggest takeaway: whatever effect it has, and whatever big projects it facilitates, it will take decades instead of years, and cost tens of billions instead of billions.
Eco-Activists and Limited Water Supply Stall California’s Planned “Lithium Valley” Mine Project
Back in 2023, Gov. Newsom was touting the development of this resource as part of his Net-Zero vision.
By Leslie Eastman, Legal Insurrection, Sep 5, 2026
Environmental Industry
The Green New Steal: The Business of Climate Change
By Mike Droberg, Nineteen Minute Video, Forgotten History, Via WUWT, Sep 8, 2026
They told us it was about saving the planet. But what if the climate movement was never about carbon at all? From Al Gore’s million-dollar mansions to trillion-dollar carbon markets, “The Green New Steal” uncovers how environmentalism became the most profitable business model in modern history.
Green Movement’s Selective Outrage Over ESA Reforms
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Sep 4, 2026
Other News that May Be of Interest
America Can’t Win the Minerals Race Without a 21st-Century Mining Workforce
By Rich Nolan, Real Clear Energy, Sep 7, 2026
In early August, the Department of Energy announced $100 million for the nation’s 14 mining schools, with the goal of doubling the number of graduates earning degrees in mining, minerals and related supply-chain fields. The Department of War added another $80 million for major workforce development programs and technology innovation hubs at three schools to train geologists, metallurgists and mining engineers.
America Can’t Import Its Way out of the Critical Minerals Crisis
By Tracy King and Yoni Tobin, WUWT, Sep 11, 2026
Critical minerals are vital elements used in numerous defense platforms: warships, stealth bombers, fighter jets, missiles, sensors, and radars. Today the United States is import-reliant when it comes to critical minerals. China accounts for 90 percent of worldwide refining and processing capacity and is the top global refiner for 19 of 20 strategic minerals especially relevant to defense production.
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
And They’re Off!
(Sea)horsing around
By Mark Hodgson, Climate Scepticism, Sep 8, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
The BBC is at it again. Today its website features an article with the heading “Why our changing weather could be bad for seahorses”. As so often seems to be the case, it’s yet another piece that seeks to make a story about climate change where one doesn’t exist. The opening paragraphs (which offer no evidence at all in support of their claims) seek to instill a sense of worry (if not despair) in readers of the article:
ChatGPT Completely Nukes Kenya’s College Essay Writing Gig Economy
The Kenyan essay gig economy once brought in between $240 million to $960 million annually in gross payments. AI slaughtered that cash cow.
By Leslie Eastman, Legal Insurrection, Sep 8, 2026
Three Years Since The Apocalypse
By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Sep 6, 2026
Bernie Sanders Proposes a “Ban Artificial Super-intelligence Act”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 7, 2026
This new proposed law is as pointless as Bernie’s attempt in 2015 to pass a law to cut CO2 emissions by 80%. But I bet it plays well with voters who are worried about artificial intelligence. AI concern enjoys a level of bipartisan appeal which climate activism has long since lost.
Sabine Hossenfelder: “I Was Offered Money to Tell You AI Will Kill Us”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 6, 2026
ARTICLES
1. An Award for Scholars Who Tell the Truth
The Carob Trust Prize for Academic Courage will honor social scientists who face unjustified attacks.
By Roland Fryer and Bill Ackman, WSJ, Sept. 7, 2026
TWTW Summary: The authors begin their announcement with:
“One of us (Mr. Fryer) released a study in 2016—later published in the Journal of Political Economy—finding that police aren’t more likely to shoot black Americans than white Americans, after accounting for the relevant context. Colleagues who read the draft warned him not to publish: ‘You’ll ruin your career.’ The paper was denounced on social media within minutes of release, and Mr. Fryer needed armed protection for more than a month. Privately, scholars who read the study called it rigorous, honest work. Publicly, many of the same scholars said nothing. No single study settles a question this large—but silence isn’t how science advances.
That silence is the problem—a cultural and an economic one. When the professional cost of publishing an unwelcome finding exceeds the cost of suppressing it, rational scholars suppress it. The result is that social-science literature reflects what researchers are permitted to say rather than what they actually discover. The scope of the problem is difficult to measure, because its most important effects are invisible—though the data we have suggest it is getting worse. In a 2024 survey of more than 6,000 professors by the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression, 35% said they had toned down their written work for fear of controversy—roughly four times the share of social scientists who admitted the same at the height of McCarthyism.
Over the past decade, Mr. Fryer has met with hundreds of undergraduate and graduate students—careful, talented, serious scholars—who came not to discuss what they had found but to ask whether they were allowed to say it. ‘Can I publish this?’ has become a common question. So has ‘Can I say this in public?’
These students had results. They had run the regressions, conducted the robustness checks, and done the work. What they lacked was confidence that those results would be received as anything other than a provocation, with their motives impugned. Some buried the findings. Some chose different dissertation topics entirely. We can’t calculate the discoveries that never happened. The papers that were never written. The policies that were never corrected because someone decided the cost of honesty was too high. Deciding which answers are acceptable before the investigation begins isn’t solidarity. It is sentimentality. And sentimentality has never closed an achievement gap, reduced an infant mortality rate, or lifted anyone out of poverty.
Mr. Fryer raised the alarm about suppression of inconvenient findings in a November 2024 Wall Street Journal essay. He called for something like a MacArthur Fellowship or an X Prize for academic truth-telling. The prize should be large enough to matter, prestigious enough to serve as a public credential for scholars who were right when it was costly to be right. Shortly after that piece ran, we found each other and decided to launch the Carob Trust Prize for Academic Courage.
The prize awards $1 million each to as many as five social scientists a year who have demonstrated intellectual independence, published findings that were attacked rather than answered, and been validated by the evidence—despite the professional cost. The selection criteria are designed to distinguish courage from contrarianism: Nominees must show a sustained commitment to following logic and evidence regardless of pressure, a willingness to ask questions others avoid, and work that has shifted academic debate, public discourse or policy—often despite being misread, mischaracterized or vilified at the time of publication.
The inaugural prize is limited to the social sciences; in future years we hope to broaden it to additional disciplines and to add a category for institutional leadership. Nominations are open through Nov. 1, and the first winners will be announced in early 2027.
We expect the prize may be mischaracterized. There are already prizes sponsored by conservative philanthropists for scholars who challenge progressive orthodoxy. There are fellowships at think tanks for which the conclusions are written before the research begins. On the other side, there are faculty award committees at major universities that have for years honored scholars whose findings align comfortably with the politics of their institutions. A prize that rewards only the scholars whose findings make conservatives comfortable isn’t a truth prize—it is a subsidy for being a team member. A prize that rewards only the scholars whose findings make university administrators comfortable is the existing system with better catering.
The scholars we want to honor include the researcher who finds that systemic racism is the primary driver of a given disparity and is dismissed by colleagues who don’t want to hear it. They include the health economist whose data on genetics and disease are weaponized by people she never meant to arm. They include anyone whose careful social-science work, wherever it leads, has been met with organized suppression rather than organized rebuttal. The test isn’t the conclusion. The test is the quality of the work, the hostility of the reception, and the verdict of the evidence over time.
We have tried to make this structurally resistant to capture from either direction. The selection committee spans the ideological spectrum. Members include the Harvard economist and Nobel laureate Eric Maskin, the Johns Hopkins sociologist Stefanie DeLuca and the Brown University economist Glenn Loury. Many of them have paid a professional price of their own for following evidence to uncomfortable places. They don’t share politics. They share an epistemology: that a finding isn’t made wrong by being unwelcome and isn’t made right by being convenient. Mr. Fryer chairs the committee; no one on it is eligible for the prize, and Mr. Ackman, who funds it, has no vote on winners. A prize that requires consensus among people who disagree about nearly everything is harder to pull toward any one agenda than a prize administered by allies. We view this as a feature, not a complication.”
TWTW Comment: Perhaps, someday they will expand such awards to those who adhere to the scientific method in physical sciences. That would be a great enhancement to awards such as SEPP’s Frederick Seitz Award.