The Week That Was: 2026-08-15 (August 15, 2026)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data.” — Sherlock Holmes (Arthur Conan Doyle)
Number of the Week: From 20 C° to 60 C° (36 F° to 108 F°)
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: This TWTW begins with a further discussion of what Richard Lindzen considers the absurd use of average global temperature. TWTW discusses a few points in a mathematical paper addressing the main causes of human-scale climate change. TWTW presents Roy Spencer’s discussion of the overuse of the water from the Colorado River and discusses the importance of perspective by Joe Bastardi. TWTW concludes with a discussion of a hopeful renewal of the U.S. Global Change Research Program by David Legates.
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More Absurdity: The August 1 TWTW discussed part of Richard Lindzen’s chapter “The Absurdity of the Conventional Global Warming Narrative” in Canary In a Climate World: Climate Realism vs. The Net Zero Myth. The part discussed pertained to the absurdity of assuming that Earth has one climate that can be described by one statistic – average global temperature. Lindzen discusses the Köppen climate classification of Earth with many different climates using about 20 different types of descriptions.
Rather than average global temperature Lindzen proposes:
“A more physical meaningful simplification of climate considers the temperature difference between the tropics and the pole rather than a single global average.
Heat is transported poleward by atmospheric circulation. When the temperature difference grows too large, the system generates storms that restore balance. The meridional gradient [north-south change, from equator to poles] is central to climate behavior.
Over long periods, variations in Earth’s orbit – known as Milankovitch cycles – alter the distribution of solar energy and drive ice ages. These orbital changes can alter regional solar input by tens to hundreds of watts per square meter, far larger than the forcing from doubling CO2.”
Lindzen discusses the Iris hypothesis as a stabilizing mechanism – “warming reduces high-altitude cirrus cloud area, allowing more infrared radiation to escape and acting as a negative feedback.” Lindzen then continues with long-term periods stating: [citation omitted here]
By the 1980s, with advances in paleoclimatology, several aspects of climate history emerged with increased clarity. We began to see more clearly the cyclic nature of glaciation cycles of the past million years or so. Warm periods like the Eocene (50 million years ago) became better defined. The data suggested that for both glacial periods and the warm periods, equatorial temperature did not differ much from present values, but the temperature difference between the tropics and high latitudes varied greatly. The following are the temperature differences:
Lindzen presents a brief table that shows that during the Eocene the temperature difference between the equator and the poles was about 20C°; during the glacial maximum it was about 60C°; and today it is about 40C° “While equatorial temperatures remained relatively stable, the temperature gradient between equator and poles varied substantially.” Lindzen states:
“These observations suggest that climate change over geological time has been dominated less by uniform warming than by changes in the meridional temperature gradient.”
Lindzen gives a simple graph and an equation for the meridional temperature distribution from equator to pole. These show that “variations in global average temperature are strongly influenced by changes in high-latitude temperature differences, indicating that shifts to gradient dominate overall changes.” Lindzen states: [Boldface added]
“The variations in equatorial temperatures were much smaller than the differences between tropical and polar regions. This reinforces the conclusion that large climate transitions are driven primarily by changes in temperature gradients rather than by unform shifts in global temperature.
The conventional global warming narrative reduces an extraordinarily complex, dynamically regulated system to a small statistical anomaly attributed primarily to a trace gas that alters the radiative budget by only a few percent. That perturbation is then assumed to be amplified by feedbacks whose magnitude remains uncertain. The Earth’s climate has changed dramatically across geological time – long before industrial emissions – without evidence that CO2 functions as a single control knob. To elevate a simplified abstraction into a comprehensive explanation of climate behavior is not a demonstration of settled science; it is a failure to respect the complexity of the system itself. That is why the prevailing narrative is not merely incomplete. It is profoundly misleading.”
Although not in included in Lindzen’s chapter or the book, the “Paleomap Project” led by geologist Christopher R. Scotese gives an excellent graphic illustration of the changing temperature gradient as the global mean temperature changes (below). This illustration is not precise, but it gives a good indication of what has occurred as Earth’s temperatures have changed for the past 50 million years or so.
The Changing Temperature Gradient. Tropics to Pole CR Scotese PALEOMAP project
From CR Scotese PALEOMAP Project (H/t Ron Clutz)
As can be seen on the left-hand side of the illustration above, the temperature gradient (the temperature change per degree of latitude) changes moving towards the poles. Further at a particular location the rate of change in the temperature gradient changes as the Global Mean Temperature changes. For example, today’s global mean temperature of slightly above 15 ℃ (59 ℉) and temperatures drops rapidly moving poleward. With an average mean temperature of about 23 ℃ (73 ℉) the temperature drop is mild moving poleward.
As Richard Lindzen states, discussing climate change from the single perspective of average global temperature is absurd. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Earth’s Changing Climate: In 2022 TWTW presented a series of brief papers by AMO physicist Howard Hayden titled Basic Climate Physics. These papers were in basic English without the heavy use of mathematics. They described that on a human scale (as compared with a geological scale) Earth’s climate is determined by three varying factors (variables): one, the intensity of the sun hitting Earth’s atmosphere; two, Earth’s albedo, the extent to which clouds and Earth’s surface, particularly snow and ice, reflect solar radiation back to space; and three, the extent to which certain atmospheric gases (called greenhouse gases) block the infrared radiation given off by Earth which cools it. The papers do not describe weather mechanisms such as details about wind, rain, storms, etc.
Chemical Engineer Rob Louw and AMO physicists William van Wijngaarden and William Happer have produced a more technical paper with a similar approach and with similar findings “Sunlight, the Bond Albedo, CO2, and Earth’s Temperature.” Although the mathematics are beyond the scope of TWTW, a few points are highlighted here. The abstract states:
“The main determinants of Earth’s absolute surface temperature, T, are the solar constant, S, the Bond albedo, A, and the effective emissivity for thermal radiation, ϵ. In this note we assume that the value of the effective emissivity, ϵ = ϵ(C), is determined by the atmospheric concentration C of CO2. We show that the solar constant is most important, the albedo is second, and the CO2 concentration is a distant third.”
Note that carbon dioxide is used as a proxy for the total greenhouse effect. Considering global climate modeling, this proxy is not absurd. Global climate modelers routinely double the influence of carbon dioxide on temperatures, claiming this is the influence of increased water vapor, without any physical evidence justifying the amplification. The Clausius-Clapeyron relationship, describing how water vapor pressure changes with temperature, gives a maximum positive feedback that is far less than a doubling.
In summary, the paper states that the calculations show that changes in solar intensity cause a relative change in Earth’s temperatures of 64 times that of carbon dioxide and changes in albedo cause a relative change in Earth’s temperatures of 27 times that of carbon dioxide. The paper concludes with:
We have made many simplifying assumptions to keep this note as brief as possible. For example, we have characterized the Earth with a single characteristic temperature T or a single temperature change dT, as is commonly done for discussions of climate. Clouds probably diminish the clear-sky forcing changes due to changes in CO2 concentration, by about 30%. So, the importances of the solar constant S and the albedo A relative to the CO2 concentration C are probably greater than indicated by (24) and (25) [the equations giving the influence of a change in albedo and a change in solar intensity as compared with a change carbon dioxide], which were estimated for clear-sky conditions.
See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Overuse: In “Record Low Lake Mead: “Millennium Drought” or Inevitable Result of Demand Exceeding Supply?” Roy Spencer discusses the core of the problem facing states using the Colorado River for power generation and water. Spencer begins with: [Boldface in original]
“Lake Mead behind Hoover Dam is now within several feet of the lowest level at which turbine power generation must be greatly curtailed. Recent news articles often blame the cause on a ‘millennium drought’ being experienced in the West. Of course, much of the western U.S. experiences drought conditions every summer, which is part of the normal climate there. Tens of millions of people like to live where it is sunny most of the year, and agriculture thrives where photosynthesis (lots of sunshine) is abundant… assuming enough water supply for irrigation.
Obviously, people need water, which is why virtually no one lives in the Sahara Desert. Add in the beauty of the Pacific Ocean, and it was inevitable that water demand would exceed supply. Even in 1922, before most people moved out west, the Colorado River Compact was negotiated to divide up the Colorado River’s water among seven southwestern states: California, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming.
Most of the water in the Colorado River is from snowmelt in the Rocky Mountains. Most (50% to 70%) goes to agriculture. And, yes, the annual runoff flows into Lake Mead (which was filled after construction of Hoover Dam was mostly completed in 1935) have been below “normal” in recent years. But calling recent reduced streamflow (and as a result, lower Lake Mead water levels) the result of a ‘millennium drought’ is sloppy reporting.
Numerous studies suggest that the original Colorado River Compact of 1922 was based upon a period of unusually high precipitation. This was discussed in a paper entitled ‘New Streamflow Reconstructions for the Upper Colorado River Basin: Placing Recent Droughts into a Centuries-Long Context’, which is a very readable review of various studies that have reconstructed Colorado River flows at Lee Ferry over the last 500 years from tree ring data. While the paper is a little dated (2006), the conclusions remain the same today.
Here are a couple of noteworthy quotes from that paper (bold added):
‘The Stockton and Jacoby reconstruction of the annual flows from 1520 to 1961 contained several important findings, including that the highest sustained flows in the entire record occurred in the first part of the 20th century, the period upon which the Colorado River Compact of 1922 was negotiated, while the most persistent and severe drought occurred in the late 16th century.’
‘…Colorado River allocations were based on one of the wettest periods in the past five centuries, while droughts more severe than any 20th-21st century event have occurred in the past.’
Spencer created graphs showing 3+ year droughts since stream gage data started in 1906 to today. There is nothing unusual about the current drought. However, the period for the Colorado River Compact was unusually wet, leading to overuse of Colorado River water for other purposes. Spencer concludes with: [Boldface italics in original]
“As can be seen, since about 2000, usage has exceeded supply, and given the natural multi-year variations in streamflow, it was only a matter of time before Lake Mead water levels would fall to operationally low levels.
In that same post I showed the average of over 100 CMIP6 climate model runs that show precipitation in the Colorado River watershed increasing substantially with global warming, so blaming the recent dry years on human-caused climate change seems a stretch. (UPDATE: While it is true that drought is a function of both precipitation and evaporation, and warming can cause drought even if precipitation does not change, water releases from Hoover Dam have been declining since 1998, so increased evapotranspiration from irrigation uses downstream of the dam [the main use of Colorado River water] cannot explain decreasing Lake Mead water levels. Direct evaporation from the lake surface is very small and changes little with warming. And there has been no statistically significant trend in streamflow input at Lee Ferry since 1932.)
And calling the recent dry years a ‘millennium drought’ is just fake news.”
The history of migration by native populations shows that prolonged droughts have been a problem in the Southwest long before Europeans arrived. Politicians in the affected states and in Washington have long ignored the problems now facing the Southwest. How severe the problems become before they address the issues is unknown. Hoover Dam generates about 4 billion kilowatt-hours of hydroelectric per year with about 58% going to California (mainly the Los Angeles region); 23% to Nevada (mainly Las Vegas); and 19% Arizona (mainly Phoenix). If power is cut to these areas no doubt the politicians will blame “climate change” rather than their own ignorance.
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Perspective: Writing in CFACT, meteorologist Joe Bastardi gives a perspective when discussing climate change. His essay “In your time…” begins with:
“I got this idea from Bill Gray. Now, do not blame Dr. Gray for it, but he was the one who first got me thinking about this. I was watching a talk he gave, and he explained how all inputs go into such a chaotic pattern that you can’t tell what is dominant and what to believe. So, I came up with this idea: The Sun, the oceans, stochastic events, and the system’s very design far outweigh what man can do to it. It involves humbling oneself enough to understand that even if we did things to end life on Earth (I am talking about things like blowing ourselves up), the system would always overcome and adjust to the state it was meant to be in, and then continue on its natural cycle to wherever it was supposed to go. And there would be no more arguing over saving the planet, since the people arguing would not be here (nor would anyone else). The planet would, though, and would adjust based on the parameters it has always adjusted to.
Suppose there are an unknown number of cycles, ranging from multi-seasonal to multi-century, at work here. And suppose that, for a time, there is a crucial intersection of those cycles — or at least that they come close enough to each other — to tip the balance of the climate one way or the other for a time. How could you tell, since those cycles may be like a tidal wave, masked in the ocean until they actually show up approaching land — in this case, the intersection of another large cycle, which may have other smaller cycles also playing a role? Everything (or enough of it) comes together to produce a result, which then will naturally be forced to reverse, but in its own time.
It would explain the variances we have seen in climate through the known geological timescale.”
See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Hopeful Renewal: According to its current website the U.S. Global Change Research Program:
“USGCRP facilitates collaboration and cooperation across 15 federal member agencies to advance a whole-of-government response to global environmental change. Research and services coordinated by USGCRP inform the Nation in navigating the challenges of a changing environment and identifying opportunities for a more resilient future.”
Established by act of Congress in 1990, the USGCRP produced periodic assessments, most notably the National Climate Assessment (NCA), which evaluated climate-related risks, impacts, and adaptation strategies in the U.S. Unfortunately, the reports were run by a private organization that supported the findings of the UN IPCC and ignored contradicting physical evidence. Near the close of the first Trump administration David Legates briefly became head of the USGCRP and tried to correct its politicized bias. Thus, he gives an unusual perspective in his essay “USGCRP’s Fresh Head Brings Fresh Air To US Climate Science.” In part, Legates writes:
“What was the USGCRP? The USGCRP ran the website climatechange.gov and provided funding opportunities to various groups and individuals through its massive budget, which was $5.14 billion dollars in 2023. It also produced both the annual climate assessment to Congress and the semi-decadal National Climate Assessment.
But the only employees of the USGCRP from the federal government were its Executive Director and the Director of the National Climate Assessment. The remainder of USGCRP personnel were staffed by a company called ICF International Incorporated. ICF International has contracts throughout the federal government, most notably at the EPA, but it is a publicly traded consulting and technology services company located in Reston, Virginia. Many expressed concern about ICF International being in charge of the USGCRP because that meant one of the major players in shaping and presenting the federal government’s face of climate change was a progressive think tank masquerading as a federal agency.
But the congressional mandate to produce a National Climate Assessment still exists. Consequently, the Trump Administration has reconstituted the USGCRP, and its new director is Dr. Matthew M. Wielicki, formerly of the University of Alabama. Dr. Wielicki is a geochemist who rejects the alarmist view of climate change and has suggested that many positives exist within a warmer world.
It is not clear whether Dr. Wielicki will serve both as the Executive Director of the USGCRP and as the Director of the United States National Assessment, but the news is refreshing. I have never met Dr. Wielicki and, given my history with the USGCRP, I will refrain from cheering his appointment—if for no other reason than the press coverage of my time in the USGCRP is likely to generate a negative reaction to my endorsement.”
See link under Seeking a Common Ground.
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Number of the Week: From 20 C° to 60 C° (36 F° to 108 F°). Based on calculations provided by Richard Lindzen, the temperature difference between the Equator and the Poles can vary from 20C° to 60C° (36 F° to 108 F°). (Note that this calculation is temperature change not the temperature reading, so the conversion from ℃ to ℉ is that ℉ = 9/5℃.) Extreme wind and weather events are driven by temperature (or pressure) difference (gradient), not heat alone. No doubt storms are fierce during glacial periods. We are fortunate to be living during a brief warm period in Icehouse Earth. (The temperature gradient is the temperature change per degree of latitude. Traditionally, temperature differences are denoted in C° or F°. Thus properly, F° = 9/5 C°.)
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Misinformation: Just what is it anyway?
By John Ridgway, Climate Scepticism, Aug 14, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: False and Misleading Information: An Evidence Summary and Map for Policy and Practice
By Harriet Baird, School of Psychology, et al., Commissioned by the Government Office for Science, May 2026
The UK’s Government Office for Science really does seem to have this thing about the rise of misinformation (the so-called ‘infodemic’). Not long ago, they got together to discuss how it is supposed to be damaging the prospects for tackling climate change. Now they have commissioned the publication of a paper that claims to summarize everything we know about its wider implications and what we can do about it.
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-fossil-fuels/
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming/
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, December 22, 2020
Net Zero Averted Temperature Increase
By Richard Lindzen, William Happer, and William A. van Wijngaarden, CO2 Coalition, June 2024
https://co2coalition.org/publications/net-zero-averted-temperature-increase/
Radiation Transport in Clouds
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Klimarealistene, Science of Climate Change, January 2025
Challenging the Orthodoxy
The Absurdity of the Conventional Global Warming Narrative
By Richard Lindzen, Chapter 7 in Canary In a Climate World, 2026
Sunlight, the Bond Albedo, CO2, and Earth’s Temperature
By R. Louw, W. A. van Wijngaarden, and W. Happer, Preprint, Nov 27, 2025
Record Low Lake Mead: “Millennium Drought” or Inevitable Result of Demand Exceeding Supply?
By Roy Spencer, Global Warming, Aug 12, 2026
Link to article: New Streamflow Reconstructions for the Upper Colorado River Basin: Placing Recent Droughts into a Centuries-Long Context
By Connie A. Woodhouse, Eileen McKim, and Andrea Ray, Intermountain West Climate Summary, June 2006
In your time…..
By Joe Bastardi, CFACT, Aug 8, 2025
Updated: Fears and Facts about Reservoirs and Methane
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Aug 9, 2026
[SEPP Comment: A different approach to what Van Weingaarden and Happer have shown, adding methane to today’s atmosphere does little to temperatures.]
Another New Study Links Modern And Past Global Warming To Natural Changes In Cloud Clover, Not CO2
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Aug 12, 2026
Link to paper: Earth’s dimming mirror: cloud contraction and the rise of albedo
Governance
By Gianni Bellocchi, et al., Environmental Research Letters, July 22, 2026
The abstract begins with: Earth has reflected progressively less solar radiation since the start of the satellite era (1979), amplifying the planetary energy imbalance. Satellite analyses attribute the trend primarily to circulation driven contraction of reflective cloud regimes, whereas process-based studies emphasize surface reflectivity changes. We argue that these perspectives are dynamically linked: as cloud cover contracts, diminishing atmospheric masking elevates the realized climatic leverage of surface albedo
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Faster, bigger, more severe: Extreme wildfire spread sets the stage for forest ecosystem change in western and boreal North America
By Jonathan D. Coop, et al. AAAS Science Advances, Aug 12, 2026
From the abstract: Given anticipated increases in extreme fire spread as fire seasons lengthen and weather becomes more fire-conducive, our findings highlight growing needs to effectively reduce undesired impacts, manage postfire landscapes to sustain forest ecosystem functions, and foster social-ecological adaptation. [Boldface added]
[SEPP Comment: Why not manage pre-fire landscapes with controlled burns and fire breaks?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
The UN Green Climate Fund is a wasteful fraud
By David Wojick, CFACT, Aug 11, 2026
[SEPP Comment: Funding the green bureaucracy.]
CO2 is Winning (Mitigation fail)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Aug 14, 2026
Climate Change Weekly # 587— Climate Panickers Bemoan Realists’ Inspired Policy Wins
By Staff, The Heartland Institute, Aug 7, 2026
[A section discusses] China’s Reforestation Benefitting from CO2 Fertilization
China undertook a huge tree planting project that is benefitting greatly from rising CO2 levels. Beginning in 1978, in an attempt to reforest land and slow desertification by halting the spread of the Gobi and Taklamakan deserts, China embarked a the “Great Green Wall” plan, planting 66 billion trees so far, with more to come. It has borne success, slowing desert expansion and creating new forest habitat and massively expanded leaf cover.
A new study has found that trees planted as part of China’s forestation efforts have grown faster than natural, previously existing forests, and that’s in large part due to rising CO2 and the age of the trees involved. Young trees use CO2 to expand roots and pack on trunk, limb and leaf and/or fruit growth. As they age, their CO2 absorption slows down.
Climate Blame Game: Global Central Planning Needed?
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Aug 11, 2026
Why The Climate Realist Movement Is On The Advance In The United States – Craig Rucker
Presentation at the European Institute for Climate and Energy EIKE, Via WUWT, Aug 13, 2026
43 minute Video
Europe’s Worst Drought and Heatwave Ever
By Mike Jonas, WUWT, Aug 10, 2026
Why Has It Been So Hot This Summer?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 9, 2026
We’ve been bombarded with claims all summer of record heatwaves. But away from the Met Office’s dodgy weather stations next to airport runways and in walled gardens, the Central England Temperature Series tells a different story.
Britain’s “Climate Crisis” Drought has Brought out the Bug Eaters
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 11, 2026
But you have to dig through pages of “alternative protein”, “rewilding” and “legume protein” before getting to the bugs.
Problems in the Orthodoxy
The Green Climate Fund Ran Short Of Other People’s Money
By Melanie Collette, Climate Realism, Aug 13, 2026
Seeking a Common Ground
USGCRP’s Fresh Head Brings Fresh Air To US Climate Science
By David Legates, Cornwall Alliance, Aug 4, 2026
Artificial Ignorance: The Political Falsehoods of Leading AIs
By James Agresti, WUWT, Aug 14, 2026
A groundbreaking study by Just Facts has measured the rates at which premium versions of four leading AI chatbots—namely ChatGPT, Google Gemini, Grok, and Claude—spread fictions from the political left and from the political right.
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Defra, Not Climate Change, is Turning England Into a Tinderbox
By Toba Young, The Daily Sceptic, Aug 13, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kesphire]
In England, Defra officials say the department is helping “nature recovery”. Yet explain that to the animals which fail to outrun the flames. And why should Defra spend tens of millions on “peatland restoration” when the peat is then destroyed by wildfires? The best joke is that Defra says it is helping to create a “fire resilient landscape”.
[SEPP Comment: Defra is the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs responsible for environmental protection, food production and standards, agriculture, fisheries, and rural communities.]
Whitehall is turning England into tinderbox
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 14, 2026
From the Telegraph:
How bad is the situation? Satellite analysis shows that six times more land was burnt in the UK over the last decade than in the previous one (151,954 hectares in 2016-2025 against 24,805 in 2006-2015). Do not be fooled by those who say this catastrophe is simply down to climate change. Sure, hot days drive moisture out of plants. But globally wildfires are down by a quarter because humanity has become better at creating firebreaks.
Measurement Issues — General
Defining Temperature
By Andy May, WUWT, Aug 9, 2026
Kinetic Temperature
By Andy May, WUWT, Aug 13, 2026
Measurement Issues — Surface
July was hottest month on record in contiguous US: NOAA
By Max Rego, The Hill, Aug 10, 2026
Daytime maximum temperatures averaged 89.5 degrees Fahrenheit in July, making it the sixth-warmest month on record during the day.
Overnight temperatures, meanwhile, averaged 64.2 degrees Fahrenheit — 3.7 degrees above the all-time average and the highest mark in any month on record, 0.7 degrees hotter than the average in July 2022.
Climate change has led to hotter nights during the summer, according to an analysis researchers at Climate Central conducted using data from 1970 to 2024.
[SEPP Comment: Not reported is NOAA’s manipulation of the records during the Obama administration.]
Changing Weather
August Update: Pacific El Niño and Atlantic Niña Impacting Hurricanes
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Aug 9, 2026
Germany Also Saw Extreme Drought Conditions In The 1940s…Worse Than Today
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 12, 2026
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Greenland Ice Varies, Don’t Panic 2026 Update
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Aug 9, 2026
Includes a video of the Helheim Glacier by NASA
New Study Details Massive Recent Sea Ice Expansion And Cooling In The Greenland Sea
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone Aug 13, 2026
Link to paper: Monitoring changes in sea-ice extent near West Jan Mayen Ridge in the Greenland Sea using Sentinel-1 SAR remote sensing data
By Furkan Yilgan and Ingibjörg Jónsdóttir, Polar Science, September 2026
From the abstract: In this study, we provide an updated and robust analysis of the recent development of sea-ice extent in the Greenland Sea by using high-resolution Sentinel-1 SAR remote sensing data covering the period 2017 to 2024. After several years of small sea-ice extent, we observe particularly large sea-ice extent at the end of the study period in 2023 and 2024, with the largest extent found in January 2024, covering 20308 km2. Characteristic for the sea-ice extent in the Greenland Sea was its shape, the so-called Odden ice tongue which formed regularly near West Jan Mayen Ridge but had disappeared with the retreating ice edge. The remarkably large sea-ice extent in 2023 and 2024 strongly reminds of a re-occurrence of Odden. Further analysis of atmospheric conditions and sea-surface temperature in the study area suggests that the large sea-ice extent in 2023 and 2024 cannot be explained by a single driver but is the result of several interacting factors.
Changing Earth
Decadal doubling of Siberian methane emissions due to warming-induced fires and methanogenesis
By Sihong Zhu, et al., AAAS Science, Aug 6, 2026
Changing Seas
July 2026 El Nino Spikes SSTs Warming
By Ron Cltz, Science Matters, July 14, 2026
Summary: The oceans are driving the warming this century. SSTs took a step up with the 1998 El Nino and have stayed there with help from the North Atlantic, and more recently the Pacific northern “Blob.” The ocean surfaces are releasing a lot of energy, warming the air, but eventually will have a cooling effect. The decline after 1937 was rapid by comparison, so one wonders: How long can the oceans keep this up? And is the sun adding forcing to this process?
Another disaster: Climate Change causes record coral six years in a row
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 11, 2026
[SEPP Comment: Although there was a decline in Coral in 2025, it was a net increase over 2020 and as far back as 1985 when measurements began.]
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
EU Net Zero Regulations Are Killing Off British Agriculture – And we Slavishly Enforce Them, Even Though We’ve Left the EU
By Matt Johnson, The Daily Sceptic, Aug 13, 2026
Lowering Standards
Cherry-Picking Met Office Drops Declining Wind Speed Chapter From Its Latest Annual Climate Report
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Aug 11, 2026
Lower wind speeds, particularly if they are part of a long-term trend, are not exactly helpful to the current fanatical Net Zero UK Government that is keen to throw billions of pounds of subsidies at promoting renewable energy, including wind turbines. No doubt energy ministers will welcome a little reticence on such matters from other government departments.
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Mainstream Media Shock as Coral on the Great Barrier Reef Records Five Years of Record Growth
By Chirs Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Aug 13, 2026
Natural bleaching is not rare at the GBR, with events occurring in 1998, 2002, 2016, 2017, 2020, 2022, 2024 and 2025. … Writing in the Australian last year, Peter Ridd noted that the Reef was still doing fine despite suffering six allegedly cataclysmic coral bleaching events in the last decade. “There should be no coral at all if those reports were true”, he added.
California Wildfire Acreage is Well Below Normal With Little Upward Trend: Why is the Media/Climate Activists Not Telling This Story?
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Aug 9, 2026
Wrong, Reno Gazette Journal, a Flawed Climate Study Doesn’t Prove Future Desertification for Reno
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Aug 12, 2026
One glaring omission deserves particular attention.
The study excludes the well-established CO₂ fertilization effect, even though decades of research have shown that increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide generally promotes plant growth and improves water-use efficiency for many species. In fact, deserts have been shrinking as increased atmospheric carbon dioxide helps plants become more resilient.
No, Climate Central, Rising Cooling Costs Aren’t Due to Climate Change
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Aug 10, 2026
Perhaps the most obvious omission is that the analysis focuses exclusively on cities. Climate Central’s own methodology states that it calculated cooling degree day trends using temperature records from 241 urban locations from 1970 to 2025.
Cities are well known to experience the Urban Heat Island effect. As vegetation is replaced by asphalt, concrete, buildings, parking lots, highways, and other infrastructure urban areas naturally become warmer than surrounding rural regions.
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
When Will The Climate Liars Stop Lying?
I & I Editorial Board, Aug 6, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
How Do We Keep Climate Propaganda Journalism Alive?
By Russell Cook, GelbspanFiles.com, Aug 12, 2026
Junk Academic Climate/Energy Articles: A Sampling
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Aug 10, 2026
“You keep using that word…”
By Staff, Climate Litigation Watch, Government Accountability & Oversight, Aug 12, 2026
Funding Issues
Central Banks Double Down on Climate Regulation Despite Collapse of Green Finance
By Tilak Doshi, Tilak’s Substack, Aug 8, 2026
The climate industrial complex displays remarkable resilience. Fifty years of failed climate predictions don’t matter. It survives the failure of successive COPs to deliver meaningful emissions reductions in the developing world. It survives the economic costs of Europe’s green experiment even as they become unbearable for the average household. And it seems to be surviving the quiet burial of its preferred extreme UN-blessed scenarios and the Trumpian revolution in energy affairs.
NOAA pulls support from Arctic climate report
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Aug 11, 2026
NOAA spokespeople did not immediately respond to The Hill’s request for comment. However, the agency confirmed to CNN that it would no longer coordinate the report but said it would still collect and publish data.
Litigation Issues
D.C. Circuit Endangerment Finding Litigation: The Stall Is On
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Aug 13, 2026
If you are interested in this subject, here is the key issue to watch: Do the progressive NGOs and their blue state co-petitioners, and for that matter the D.C. Circuit itself, want this case to proceed to a quick resolution? Or do they want to stall?
So, the EF litigation Petitioners, and probably also the D.C. Circuit itself, have likely concluded that there is little to be gained from a D.C. Circuit ruling striking down the rescission of the EF, and much to be lost from a potential Supreme Court reversal of such a ruling. Their better strategy is to leave their challenge to the EF rescission sitting for a while, reaching a D.C. Circuit decision toward the end of Trump’s term; and then pray for a new Democratic President in 2029 to reverse course, withdraw any Supreme Court appeal, and start to reinstate the Biden-era regulations to suppress the fossil fuel economy.
“If your ironclad proof that Big Oil secretly knew their products cause global warming is a leaked industry memo … why would you alter it to make it look more plausible?”
By Russell Cook, GelbspanFiles.com, July 30, 2026
EPA sued for approving semiconductor chemicals that may pose health risks
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Aug 14, 2026
The EPA did not calculate the exact level of risk because of “insufficient information,” but it still approved the chemical, the order states.
Montana and Climate Change: Carbon Dioxide on Trial
By Staff, CO2 Coalition, Aug 13, 2026
https://co2coalition.org/publications/montana-and-climate-change-carbon-dioxide-on-trial/
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Surprise! The Aussie Carbon Tax is Back
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 10, 2026
Energy Issues – Europe
North Sea Shutdown to Cost Treasury Billions
By Will Jones, The Daily Sceptic, Aug 8, 2026
Brian Gilvary, who sat on the board of BP from 2012 to 2020, said punishing tax rates and a ban on new drilling had prompted many oil and gas operators to halt activity in British waters sooner than expected.
Oil and gas companies face a 78% levy on their UK profits after Labour increased a windfall tax on the industry when it came to power. The Government has also extended the levy by two years, from 2028 to 2030.
[SEPP Comment: A lesson on how to destroy an industry and an economy.]
Millions of households could face threat of emergency blackouts
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 11, 2026
We are rapidly turning into a third world country [UK] where our electricity grid is concerned.
Energy Issues – Australia
Synergy of Wind & Solar Generators in Australia’s NEM [National Energy Market]
By Richard Willoughby, WUWT, Aug 8, 2026
Wind, solar and batteries do not offer any economy of scale. That had previously been observed with the rapid uptake of rooftop solar in Australia and the steady decline in the wholesale market. Home batteries are now making the same point as the grid scale batteries and pumped hydro lose their market.
The de-industrialization of the Australian economy continues per Image 2 [in post] with quarterly volume down 0.5% year-on-year as rooftops exceed any growth.
Communism creeping in? Labor government drives Tomago smelter out of business, then rescues it with $2.5b
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 13, 2026
The giant Tomago Aluminium Smelter uses 10% of New South Wales electricity, and thanks to our obsession with pretending we can control the clouds, the cost of electricity is set to double when the current contract expires, which was about to drive it out of business
Once the State decided that it had to control the weather, all the crazy just flows from there.
Energy Issues – Elsewhere non-US
Indonesia and India Are Jointly Planning a Hydrocarbon-Powered Future
By Vijay Jayaraj, WUWT, Aug 12, 2026
Energy Issues — US
Data Centers: The Factories of the Intelligence Age
By Keith Ammon, Real Clear Energy, Aug 13, 2026
This first-in-the-nation law [New Hampshire] lets a large energy customer like a data center develop its own power source with no costs on anyone else’s bill, because the entity is not connected to the existing grid. To keep that status, providers must operate independently, cannot cross state lines, and cannot use public rights-of-way.
Data Center Development Benefits to Local Communities Cannot Be Ignored
By David Holt, Real Clear Energy, Aug 10, 2026
Link to press release of report: New Brattle Group Analysis Finds Large Energy Users in Iowa and Wisconsin Can Support Grid Affordability When Costs Are Properly Allocated
By Long Lam, et al., Brattle Group, June 10, 2026
From article: A 2026 analysis by The Brattle Group determined that large electricity customers—including data centers—can improve affordability when regulators ensure that “growth pays for growth” and costs are appropriately allocated.
Alarm Bells Are Sounding for the Grid: Answering Them Takes More Than Megawatts
By Matt Green, Power Mag, Aug 10, 2026
It was the third federal emergency intervention for PJM in 2026 alone, among dozens of such orders issued across North American grid operators this year. As I write this, another hot weather alert and emergency order request are in effect for the same footprint.
When federal emergency powers become routine operating procedure, the system is not holding up. It is operating at its ceiling. And the customers who kept their lights on paid triple for the privilege, which means the event that operations survived is one that affordability did not.
Iowa’s Energy Grid Isn’t a Riverboat Casino
By Cameron Sholty, Real Clear Energy, Aug 12, 2026
Energy policy really isn’t that complicated. Before politicians start talking about climate targets, federal tax credits, “transitions,” or whatever phrase is fashionable in Washington this week, they ought to answer three basic questions:
Is the energy affordable? Is it reliable? Is it secure?
If the answer is no, then we’ve got a problem.
Call It What It Is: Texas Didn’t Order an Audit. It Ordered a Pause.
By Joseph Hoefer, Real Clear Energy, Aug 10, 2026
Gov. Greg Abbott didn’t call it a moratorium. He called it a “comprehensive verification and audit.” But for the roughly 2,000 data center projects now sitting in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas’s interconnection queue, the practical effect is much the same: projects cannot meaningfully move forward until the review is complete. Whatever label Texas chooses, that’s a pause in all but name.
The real test isn’t whether Texas audits these projects. It should. The test is whether the state uses that audit to build a predictable regulatory framework or simply creates an open-ended permission slip for delay. Investors can price regulation. Communities can plan around regulation. What neither can price nor plan around is uncertainty. And that’s ultimately what Texas risks creating if this pause remains a process without a predictable end.
Washington’s Control of Energy
Proposed Farm Bill Changes Don’t Solve the Fundamental Problems With the Renewable Fuel Standard
By Jason Hayes, Real Clear Energy, Aug 11, 2026
Corn ethanol production is largely domestic, but the RFS’s design keeps any advantage from scaling cleanly. EPA actions this year expanded the implied conventional renewable fuel mandate to near 15 billion gallons even though the market cannot absorb that volume given the ethanol blend wall and recently declining gasoline demand.
[SEPP Comment: The corn ethanol mandate was established in the Bush 2 administration with Washington convinced that the US was about to run out of oil. Thanks to hydraulic fracturing deep-water drilling in the Gulf of America, that fear is not valid. Corn for ethanol now accounts for about 45% of corn production. The mandate should be phased out, not continued. Importing feedstocks to meet the mandate is absurd.]
Trump extends Jones Act waiver, with limits, in bid to tamp down energy prices
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Aug 10, 2026
However, as the waivers have received some pushback among the domestic shipping industry, the White House said that this time, it was taking a narrower approach to the waiver, limiting it to apply only to certain commodities, including gasoline, diesel, crude oil, petrochemicals, natural gas and fertilizer.
It will also require the Defense Department to consult with the U.S. Maritime Administration on whether Jones Act-compliant vessels are available before deciding whether the waiver will apply to an individual voyage.
Emergency Energy Waiver No Longer Matches the Market
By George Landrith, Real Clear Energy, Aug 12, 2026
That is why the current Jones Act waiver deserves a harder look. It was sold as an emergency measure to protect consumers and ease supply pressure during a dangerous war-driven energy shock. But the public facts now raise an uncomfortable question: if refiners are posting extraordinary profits while consumers see little relief and American vessels ship less domestic cargo, who exactly is the waiver helping?
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Shut Up and Drive – Slow to Start on LNG Exports, Canada Now Has Its Pedal to the Metal
By Housley Carr, RBN Energy, Aug 13, 2026
LNG Canada, Canada’s first large-scale LNG export terminal, didn’t load its first cargo of liquefied natural gas until June 2025, more than nine years after Sabine Pass LNG was up and running in Louisiana. But while the U.S. Gulf Coast had a big head start — and is now in the midst of another wave of LNG export project development — Canada is finally firing on all cylinders, with plans to more than triple its current export capacity of 14 MMtpa (1.8 Bcf/d) by the early 2030s.
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Trump’s race to launch Nuclear Microreactors changes everything – (An Australian led team built one in just 150 days)
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 14, 2026
One of them, created by an Australian Bobby Gallagher, was a latecomer to the race, but managed to build a new microreactor design, with some help from the US Energy Department, in an awe-inspiring 150 days.
Australia is such a backwater, his work wouldn’t even be legal here.
Key stats from the video:
The Unity Nuclear Battery effectively could power about 700 homes. The fuel to power it costs about $1.2 million and runs for five years.
To get the equivalent diesel generator would cost $700,000 and it would use $11 million dollars of fuel.
[SEPP Comment: Post includes a photo of the core of the microreactor in the bed of a F-150 pickup truck.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
“Cheap” Solar Does Not Need Subsidies, Right? (wrong)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Aug 12, 2026
To recap. The PR narrative is that solar is now cost-competitive. But behind the scenes, the lobbying frenzy by solar trade groups, led by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) nationally and in Texas, the Texas Solar Energy Society (TXSES), speaks for itself. It is continued subsidies or bust for the utility-scale solar industry.
More than 200 homes damaged by solar panel fires in a year
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 10, 2026
[SEPP Comment: Solar panels at work in the cloudy UK.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Australia’s Green Hydrogen Dream Collapses
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 13, 2026
What Louisiana Can Teach America About Manufacturing
By Susan Bourgeois and Matthieu Giard, Real Clear Energy, Aug 11, 2026
Earlier this year, Air Liquide announced a significant new investment in Louisiana, further expanding the company’s presence in a state where it has operated for over six decades
From Air Liquide website: ELYgator: Inside the electrolyzer construction site shaping the future of hydrogen in Europe. https://www.airliquide.com/stories/hydrogen/elygator-inside-electrolyzer-construction-site-shaping-future-hydrogen-europe
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
The Great Battery Bungle: Taxpayers Paid Billions for Batteries the Grid Can’t Use
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 8, 2026
It’s just another design flaw in the Renewable Crash Test Dummy file
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
The Weak EV Narrative (fix is in with NYT essay)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Aug 13, 2026
Matthew Shaer’s 5,500-word New York Times essay, “The American E.V. Has Been Crushed. Will It Take the U.S. Auto Industry with It?” (July 15, 2026), documents the U.S. electric vehicle (EV) bust. Very useful. But then he spins a false narrative.
Other News that May Be of Interest
Nevada Discovery Could Rebuild America’s Tungsten Supply Chain
However, potential development of Railroad Valley has hit a NASA roadblock.
By Leslie Eastman, Legal Insurrection, Aug 10, 2026
However, there is a potential roadblock to some of this land being developed.
NASA opposes mining on about one-third of the company’s claims. The agency uses the flat Nevada desert to calibrate satellite instruments and says mining would interfere with a unique site used to receive and verify satellite signals. The Bureau of Land Management withdrew roughly 17 square miles from mining and exploration in 2023 at NASA’s request.
Mining Schools, Companies Finally Get a Boost
By Duggan Flanakin, Real Clear Energy, Aug 12, 2026
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Claim: Young People’s Electoral Vote Should Count More because of the Climate Crisis
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 11, 2026
[SEPP Comment: And extend the minimum age to birth?]
Octopus Energy: Don’t use electricity during solar eclipse
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 11, 2026
From the Telegraph: Britain’s biggest energy supplier is urging people to avoiding using electricity during this week’s solar eclipse.
The eclipse will send solar generation plunging just as electricity demand begins to rise as millions of people return home from work.
[SEPP Comment: The solar eclipse last at most 4 minutes and backup batteries cannot even cover that amount of time?]
Claim: London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s Tree Planting Campaign will Save the Global Climate from President Trump
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 9, 2026
The climate crisis is getting worse, but in London we’ve shown that – with courage and creativity – we can prepare ourselves for its impacts. We’ve planted more than 640,000 trees across the capital, shading our streets from the summer sun. We’ve embraced rewilding while creating and improving more than 2,000 football pitches’ worth of green space, providing natural drainage to prevent flooding. And just last month, we set out a plan to clean up our rivers and create safe swimming sites where Londoners can cool down in the heat. We have more zero-emission buses than any city in Europe and about a third of our country’s electric charging points.
[SEPP Comment: Adding 640,000 to the estimated 3 trillion will be significant?]
The Fantasyland Of New York City’s Discount Grocery Stores
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Aug 9, 2026
Link to report: U.S. consumers spent 9.7 percent of their disposable personal income on food in 2025
By Eliana Zeballos and Wilson Sinclair, USDA Economic Research Service, June 1, 2026
From USDA report: In 2025, U.S. consumers spent an average of 9.7 percent of disposable personal incomes on food, down from 10.4 percent in 1997. The decline was driven by a lower share spent on food at home, which was 4.8 percent in 2025, down from 6.1 percent in 1997. The share spent on food away from home was 4.9 percent in 2025, up from 4.3 percent in 1997. These trends show that the overall share of disposable income spent on food declined from 1997 to 2025, with the decline in the share spent on food at home more than offsetting the increase in the share spent on food away from home.
ARTICLES
1. Despite What You’ve Heard, the World Isn’t on Fire
That Canadian smoke wasn’t pretty, but it was an outlier. Less land is burning than ever before.
By Bjorn Lomborg, WSJ, Aug. 12, 2026
TWTW Summary: After a brief introduction the president of the Copenhagen Consensus continues with:
“Ottawa’s own tally released July 9 showed 1.4 million hectares burned—less than a third of the 4.6 million hectares burned by the same date last year. Tucked into the ‘quick facts’ of the government’s press release, beneath ministerial quotes about climate change driving ever more severe disasters, was the quiet admission that wildfire activity ‘remains below the five-year average.’ That’s understating it: Satellite data weekly updated by the European Union confirm that Canada’s total burned area in 2026 by Aug. 5 was below the 2012-25 average the EU uses as a baseline.
And the statistical good news keeps coming. The U.S. this year has remained below its 2012-25 average, with its most recent measurement 20% below average as of Aug. 5. North America and South America are at a record-low burn since 2012.
Every continent on the globe is burning less—some much less—than usual. As of Aug. 5, Oceania has burned 14% less than its 2012-25 average and Europe has burned 35% less. Asia has a near-record low of burned area since 2012, clocking in at 41% below average. Africa is at a record low, with current burn at 44% below average.
Globally, we’re on trend for the lowest burn since the collection of that satellite data began in 2001, and likely the lowest since 1900. In the early 1900s, nearly 4% of global land burned annually, nearly double today’s rate. American annual burned area in the 1930s was about five times as large as its modern annual burned area.
The deadliest aspect of fires has declined, too: smoke deaths. Air pollution from fires kills roughly 20,000 times as many people as the fires themselves. As fires have declined, the rate of annual deaths from landscape-fire air pollution has fallen substantially since 2000, according to a 2024 Lancet study. Given the current global population, that means fire pollution kills about 1.6 million—400,000 fewer than would have been the case had the 2000 death rate remained.”
Note that TWTW strongly questions such calculations which are based on PM2.5. Lomborg continues with:
You wouldn’t know any of this from most media reports. Too much coverage cherry-picks smaller areas that happen to have lots of fire, ignoring everything else. With Canada this summer, scary pictures won out over compelling statistics. In Europe, wildfires in France and Spain repeatedly make headlines; that the Continent’s fires are significantly below average doesn’t.
One of the most egregious examples of this narrow reporting was the coverage of the ‘black summer’ fires in Australia in 2019 and 2020. The headlines were apocalyptic. But while the fires did come near heavily populated areas—such as Melbourne and Sydney, where many media outlets are based—the total national burn was ‘well below average,’ according to the government’s annual environmental overview. This sort of media coverage leaves the public with the impression that the planet is ablaze when the evidence shows the opposite.
The positive news in fire statistics should give pause to climate alarmists and those in the media promoting their cause. To be logically consistent, if climate change gets the blame for every fire, it should also get credit for burn declining.
The truth is that climate change isn’t the main determiner either way. A warmer planet does lengthen fire seasons and dries out vegetation faster, tilting the odds toward more dangerous fire weather. But weather only sets how easily a landscape can burn. Whether it burns—and how badly—depends mostly on people: how much fuel we let accumulate, how quickly we detect and douse flames, and how much land we farm, fragment and pave. The significant decline in area burned is due to a century of better land management, agriculture and firefighting.
The main culprits of the bad fire seasons Canada suffered in 2023 and 2025 are homegrown. A nation can have less fire overall but still impressive blazes: The same decades of aggressive firefighting that drove total burned area down also let fuel pile up. Canada has all but abandoned prescribed burning—deliberate, controlled fires that clear out the deadwood and undergrowth that turn ordinary fires into monsters. By one measure, the area in Canada treated with prescribed burns annually collapsed from more than 35,000 hectares in 1990 to 182 hectares in 2023, a 99.5% decline.
The stock response from climate activists—that the only real fix is decarbonization—fails elementary arithmetic. Even if the entire wealthy world went net-zero by 2050, an astoundingly improbable and expensive policy, temperatures would change less than 0.2 degree Fahrenheit by the end of the century, with near-zero effect on fire risks.
Adaptation is what makes the difference. Modeling of Los Angeles’s Palisades fire shows that with no climate action, a similar fire in 2050 would burn about 7.2% more intensely. Yet even if the entire world managed dramatic emission cuts, the fire would still burn 5.5% more intensely in 2050. On the other hand, adaptation—prescribed burns, mechanical thinning, fire-resistant building codes and smarter zoning—could make that fire about 15.4% less severe in 2050 than it was in 2025, at a tiny fraction of the cost massive decarbonization poses.
Canadians and Americans who spent July coughing on smoke deserve better than a false diagnosis. Better forest management—particularly prescribed burns—will do more for next summer’s air than any emissions target.
The main culprits of the bad fire seasons Canada suffered in 2023 and 2025 are homegrown. A nation can have less fire overall but still impressive blazes: The same decades of aggressive firefighting that drove total burned area down also let fuel pile up. Canada has all but abandoned prescribed burning—deliberate, controlled fires that clear out the deadwood and undergrowth that turn ordinary fires into monsters. By one measure, the area in Canada treated with prescribed burns annually collapsed from more than 35,000 hectares in 1990 to 182 hectares in 2023, a 99.5% decline.
***********
2. Europe’s Geoengineering Future?
Politicians spent trillions on climate without any effect on heat waves and fires.
By Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., WSJ, Aug. 11, 2026
TWTW Summary: The veteran columnist begins with:
“The energy needed to cool your house is energy that causes global warming. Therefore, cool the planet, not your house, say European activists and politicians during a time of deadly heat waves, wildfires, etc.
A few problems crop up. There’s no plan to cool the planet, so Europe’s activists are telling Europe’s seniors to keep dying at a rate of 47,000 to 60,000 a year amid warmer summers.
U.S. residential and commercial space heating consumes twice as much energy as cooling; globally, the ratio is closer to 4 to 1. It doesn’t follow that, in a warming world, more air conditioning means more emissions overall. Not to mention air conditioning is usually powered by electricity, an energy source undergoing palpable decarbonization. Heating, which a warming world will need less of, is still dominated by combustion fuels.
Then there’s the conundrum: Consumers trade off more highly valued energy uses against less-valued ones. How does it make sense to discourage air conditioning in order to favor the energy Europeans use to drive to the Kwik-E-Mart for a Slim Jim?
Unfortunately, as JPMorgan energy guru Michael Cembalest recently put it, we’re ‘in divinity school’ where rationality is roughly equated with atheism when the subject is climate and energy.”
After discussing a few political experiences, Mr. Jenkins continues with:
“In the service of public understanding, something else also can’t be repeated often enough: Two-thirds of the warming in climate models comes not as a primary effect of increased CO2. It comes from poorly cataloged and measured ‘positive feedbacks.’ This is why climate models vary significantly in how much warming they forecast.
If reading this makes you want to shout ‘denier,’ this column is for you. If you think no price is too high for reduced emissions, stop exhaling. Each time you emit approximately 95 milligrams.
If you think acknowledging the uncertainties of climate science and the wrong turns of climate policy is denialism, this could be an additional reason to stop exhaling.
Europe’s air-conditioning and wildfire puzzle may be a breakthrough moment. There’s no guarantee that present trends will continue, but if they do, the European Union could be the first top-tier world player with an incentive actually to alter global temperatures. It could do this by injecting particulates into the atmosphere to produce a 1% reduction in sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface.
No, this project, which comes with an estimated price tag of $5 billion to $20 billion a year, wouldn’t quench specific heat waves or fires. Europe’s wildfire problem in particular calls for changes in land-use policy (also true in the U.S.).
But geoengineering-by-sulfates by now has been widely modeled. It’s considered in the climate community to be the likeliest proposal for offsetting about 1 degree Celsius of planetary warming that computer models attribute to accumulated emissions.
Get ready for this to bust through even the clotted mindset of the Times, last seen falsifying why climate scientists have repented of their worst-case emissions scenarios—it wasn’t because of the success of green energy, as the paper was obliged to admit in a non-retraction retraction.
Expect it also to bust through the clotted mindset of Europe’s policymakers. The ugly truth is, like policymakers everywhere, they’ve been waving their hands and imposing costs without getting called out for producing zero real-world effect. Now their voters will be demanding a real-world effect they can see and feel if Europe’s heat-wave and wildfire trends continue.
Only experience will tell us how much temperatures actually change in the coming decades. The data probably will never tell us reliably how much fossil fuels were responsible. It won’t matter if mankind develops a taste for adjusting climate because it can.”