By Paul Bledsoe
As President Donald Trump and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu continue to prosecute a war against Iran, the energy narrative in many business outlets is that top U.S. gas exporters, already shipping near capacity, are unable to fill the temporary loss of 20% of global liquefied natural gas volumes triggered by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the temporary loss of Qatar’s gas exports.
But these narratives neglect to recognize how the last 15 years of increasing U.S. production of gas together with deployment of huge new renewable wind, solar and battery storage has largely insulated American consumers from the perfect storm a major war of choice in the Middle East occurring during unprecedented new electricity demand from AI data centers. But these new pressures are quite serious, and mean now is finally the time for Congress to finish the job of lowering consumer energy costs by passing major permitting reforms this year.
A counterfactual is illustrative: where would U.S. consumers and businesses be without the large increases in production of U.S. natural gas and renewable energy over the last decade and a half? Facing far higher power prices.
Total U.S. gas production has roughly doubled between 2010 and 2025. And over the last decade, America’s wind production has tripled while solar power increased more than 10-fold. This unprecedented infusion of new electricity generation has kept U.S. consumer prices lower than our competitors in Europe and elsewhere, providing reliable and lower-emitting energy to consumers and businesses across the country even as demand has increased.
Renewable energy and natural gas are also synchronistic on the grid, with new combined cycle gas plants powering up within mere minutes to seamlessly back up intermittent renewables, even as the surge in battery storage power has made renewables more price competitive.
Internationally, U.S. domestic production of gas has allowed America to displace Russia as the primary source of European gas imports, a huge geo-political victory achieved both under Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Of course, domestic gas production as a result of the shale gas revolution deserves most of the credit here. But so do massive increases in solar, wind and battery production, which have lowered costs and covered the shortfall of gas exports for domestic consumer and business markets.
Together, gas and renewables have also displaced coal to lower CO2 emissions domestically and in the EU. But U.S. industry must act even more urgently to limit wasteful fugitive emissions of methane to retain its strong European market position and meet new EU regulations.
The irony is that this synchronicity or interdependence of U.S. gas and renewable energy has not been embraced adequately by either political party. Donald Trump and the MAGA movement have consistently and irrationally demonized renewable energy, not only eliminating clean energy tax incentives, but going so far as to prevent already invested and nearly-completed facilities from coming online to help Americans consumers. A growing number of conservatives who recognize the vast solar opportunity and contribution are trying to prevail on the Trump White House to change its policies, but have not been successful so far.
As for Democrats, too many on the left side of the party still oppose natural gas production or attempt to prevent gas from reaching consumers in the hard-pressed regions like the Northeast, where electricity prices are far higher than most of the country.
These irrational ideological impediments on both sides have thus far prevented the two parties from reaching agreement on permitting reforms that if enacted would usher in a new era of U.S. energy abundance and economic growth, lowering consumer and industry prices by even more than the gas and renewables expansions.
The combination of the data center build-out by the tech industry and Trump’s policy of multiple new foreign wars is putting extreme pressure on prices and should help Congress realize the necessity of compromise when it comes to increasing both domestic natural gas pipelines and much-needed interstate power lines for renewable energy. Not to do so both victimizes American consumers at the moment when affordability is the key domestic political issue, but also to limits long-term U.S. flexibility in foreign policy.
It is also worth contrasting the very large run up in global oil prices due to the war in Iran, and rising domestic gasoline prices for consumers at the pump with the relatively steady domestic in natural gas prices. Trump’s unreasonable policy aversion toward electric vehicles is not only hurting America’s auto sector, but also leaving consumers with fewer option to lower fueling costs by using EVs and the electricity grid powered by domestic gas and renewables. Instead, most Americans are now paying through the nose, with gasoline and oil prices rising dramatically because of the war with Iran. Oil prices have risen 35% in the week since the attacks began, and gasoline prices are up more than 12%.
Some argue that Trump would not have dared attack Iran without increased U.S. energy production. But Trump’s willfulness in foreign policy in his second term suggests the president does as he wishes, despite risky economic implications. To describe President Trump as impetuous and imperious is hardly to risk hyperbole. Indeed, some Trump supporters emphasize his unpredictability as an asset, while many critics point to constantly varying tariffs and energy policies as having substantially negative effects on consumers.
The huge growth of U.S. natural gas production and renewable energy together helps insulate consumers from global volatility and price increases today. But it also offers the opportunity through permitting reform to greatly lower consumer prices in the long-term, despite pressures from big tech’s AI data centers and President Trump’s military adventurism. Any Republican or Democrat who prevents permitting reform this year faces an increased chance of defeat in November from voters who are increasingly tracking energy affordability issues very closely.
Paul Bledsoe is the president of Bledsoe and Associates, an energy and economic policy consultancy. He served as a staff member in the U.S. House and Senate, and as an official in the Interior Department and Clinton White House.
This article was originally published by RealClearEnergy and made available via RealClearWire.
