by Vijay Jayaraj
In 2022, Alex Epstein released “Fossil Future,” his treatise on why humanity requires more coal, oil and natural gas to flourish. When the book appeared, the Biden administration was making extravagant pledges to fund global climate initiatives. Executives of major financial institutions and energy firms were making theatrical commitments to reducing their use and production of fossil fuels.
But four years later, those same industry titans are scrambling for excuses to delay or abandon net zero goals and seeking to develop the energy sources they had publicly disavowed. Business leaders cite supply chain complexities, technological barriers and cost overruns. Some even acknowledge that fossil fuels are a necessity of modern life.
However, for national governments, reversing course is complicated by entanglements in the bureaucratic web of international climate agreements. Hence, they maintain the language of action – as though they could control something as huge and complex as the climate system –while systematically securing long-term supplies of fossil fuels and expanding hydrocarbon infrastructure.
No country displays this pragmatism better than India, which has quietly delayed its net zero commitments to a distant 2070. Behind a green veneer, India doubles down on every form of useful hydrocarbon available. In doing so, it has emerged as a key export market for U.S. liquified natural gas (LNG) and a bellwether for global energy reality.
Coal Reality Quashes Green Illusion
India plans to increase by 2035 its coal-power capacity by 46%. Indian state electricity distributors are signing contracts with delivery dates in 2030 – the year climate alarmists claimed coal would be on its deathbed. Some incentives for clean energy projects have been withdrawn.
A senior analyst with Wood Mackenzie recently admitted they have revised projections for coal-fired power generation in India. They now expect the peak to occur in the early 2040s, pushing it back from their previous outlook of the 2030s. Do not be surprised when the new date is abandoned for a still later one.
US-India Energy Bonanza
New Delhi recognizes that energy sovereignty requires a diverse portfolio of reliable partners. This realization has revived India-U.S. energy trade, breathing life into ties that suffered from a year of geopolitical friction. In fiscal year 2025, bilateral hydrocarbon trade between the two nations surged to nearly $14 billion, with increases in volume across crude oil, LNG and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
At the India Energy Expo conference in January, Indian energy companies expressed strong interest in securing equity participation in U.S. projects for LNG liquefaction. They are targeting facilities currently under construction or nearing final investment decisions. India sees U.S. gas as a cornerstone of its energy security for decades to come.
India is also pursuing domestic oil exploration with a vigor that should shame Western nations that have banned fracking. Oil India has identified the Andaman and Nicobar Islands as a new frontier for oil and gas exploration. Simultaneously, U.S. companies are ramping up their presence in India’s upstream sector, partnering across the entire exploration and production value chain.
In addition, India is keen on finalizing a bilateral energy engagement with Japan and already has Japanese companies participating in developmentof 13 sedimentary basins.
Surprising some with its interest in developing fossil fuels, a liberal Canadian government had its natural resources minister meet with an Indian counterpart to finalize plans to supply more crude oil, LNG and LPG in return for refined petroleum products from India.
Even Europe, the Vatican of climate religion, is bowing to necessity. The anti-fossil EU lobby has spent years trying to strangle hydrocarbon trade, yet deals involving Indian refined products continue to advance. Europe needs diesel and jet fuel, and Europeans do not care if the crude originated in a well that their own regulations would ban. India processes the oil, and Europe buys the product, outsourcing “emissions” while keeping its economies running.
The United States has a tremendous opportunity here. It has the resources India needs and the technology to help them burn it more cleanly and efficiently. But more importantly, the Trump administration shares the subcontinent’s interest in a world of abundant and affordable energy.
The “Fossil Future” is being built by India one coal plant at a time, along with myriad contracts for oil and natural gas development.
Originally published in Real Clear Markets on February 20, 2026.
Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Associate at the CO2 Coalition, Fairfax, Virginia. He holds an M.S. in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia and a postgraduate degree in energy management from Robert Gordon University, both in the U.K., and a bachelor’s in engineering from Anna University, India. He served as a research associate with the Changing Oceans Research Unit at University of British Columbia, Canada.
In other words, India has made a realistic assessment of its future energy needs and is making the deals with countries that can help meet them. It’s paying less and less lip service to emissions reductions and climate targets that it knows are impractical to meet, especially since almost no one else is doing so anyway. So it would be a good idea for proponents of conferences like the COPs to take a hard look at who ‘s really paying attention to their annual recommendations and stop wasting their time and taxpayers’ money attending meetings that have an unbroken record of achieving almost nothing. That’s the real Net Zero; i.e., what the COPs have achieved during the last three decades
When all they have is time and taxpayers money how will they leave the trough?
India’s electrotech fast-track: where China built on coal, India is building on sun
When we compare India today with China at equivalent income levels ($11,000 PPP in 2012), several observations emerge:
Wow. I have increased my income since 2012 too. 😉
BTW – “We’re a global energy think tank that accelerates the clean energy transition with data and policy”
So a “clean” energy advocate.
At least they tell us their bias.
India’s co2 emissions are now ten times those of Britain and are rising exponentially. It is extremely clear that India couldn’t care less about how much co2 it emits. It is amusing how many useful idiots there are who keep making excuses for India. India is laughing at climate alarmists.
Let’s just hope the UK doesn’t give up on curtailing CO2 emissions, or all is lost!
Hang in there, Ed Miliband! The world is counting on you and your windmills and solar!
Maybe….maybe Prince Andrew could be persuaded by Ed to join the cause?
India has 20 times UK’s population and historically India had much lower emission. Even now UK’s per capita emission is twice India’s.
True, and irrelevant.
The Ember link makes valid points about renewables momentum and lower relative fossil dependence at similar income levels, however, your copy-clipped comment cherry-picks an optimistic narrative to downplay the article’s core reality:
India is aggressively expanding coal capacity alongside clean energy, not instead of it.
Coal isn’t peaking soon or modestly – Official Indian govt data (Ministry of Power, Feb 2026) projects thermal (mostly coal) capacity reaching ~307 GW by 2034 – 2035, up from ~212-221 GW now, requiring ~97 GW new additions.
Global Energy Monitor and others track 29–35 GW under construction + massive pipeline (90–111+ GW proposed/in development).
This isn’t “one plant at a time”—it’s deliberate scaling to meet demand, with coal use expected to rise through the 2030s/2040s before any peak.
Even a cursory bit of research shows this to be optimistic greenwashing.
https://www.downtoearth.org.in/energy/india-to-add-97-gw-of-coal-by-2035-as-regulators-seek-to-steady-grid-amid-renewables-surge
Unless, by “approaching its peak” your man at Ember, Mr. Bond, means the peak is somewhere over the horizon, out of sight, and we’re approaching it at a snail’s pace.
Optimistic Greenwashing is username’s forte`.
F minus, try harder warmunist troll
“Major Funding Sources
Ember is transparent about its funding on its website (under the “About” section). It relies on grants and donations from philanthropic foundations, climate-focused organizations, and some governments/international bodies. It does not accept funding from fossil fuel companies or entities with direct conflicts of interest.
Key major funders (based on Ember’s own disclosures and public records from 2020–2025):
European Climate Foundation (ECF) — one of the largest and most consistent supporters (multi-million euro grants over multiple years)
Quadrature Climate Foundation — significant multi-year funding for data and analysis work.
Sunrise Project — grants focused on energy transition and policy influence.
ClimateWorks Foundation — pass-through funding (e.g., $150,000 in 2021; additional grants to predecessor Sandbag).
KR Foundation (Denmark) — earlier grants (e.g., ~$145,000 in 2018 to Sandbag).
World Wildlife Fund (WWF) — occasional project-specific support.
Other notable contributors (smaller or project-based):
Children’s Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF)
Hewlett Foundation
Grantham Foundation
Various EU or UK government-linked grants for specific research (e.g., energy data transparency projects
Ember Research was the source of Ed Miliband’s claim that renewable energy would cut £300 from Britain’s energy bills. This blatant lie shows how much credibility Ember Research has. They just make things up.
Ember Energy. Says it all.
When reality butts up against Ideology, reality always wins.
India is now the most populous nation on the planet and it needs energy to survive lots of energy constantly available to meet its basic and developing needs.
If renewable energy was anywhere near being an answer then that is what would be progressed and used.
The advance of fossil fuel and nuclear is where India is focused and for good reason. That is what works 24/7 all year round.
The damage the Green advocacy has done will eventually be admitted and written up as a lesson from history. Sadly Europe will have been destroyed as an advanced part of the world before that admission of coordinated damage is revealed.
As the winter snow falls across the northern hemisphere carpeting the solar farms returning nett zero energy, does anyone imagine this nonsense continuing for much longer?
….does anyone imagine this nonsense continuing for much longer?
Yes. It will continue till some major industrial economy has a winter nationwide blackout which takes weeks to recover from.
A less extreme version of it may continue, which would consist in a back track on gas, which continues to meet demand, but also to continue installing vast amounts of useless wind.
Its hard to say which is more likely in the UK. With Miliband in charge, the first, blackouts. If Miliband goes? The second.
But it often takes a long time, with a lot of damage done in the meantime.
Both India and China are playing “rich” countries like a Stradivarius. Shame on them. And shame on us “rich” countries for allowing them to do so.
Europe is the source of climate change religion, not India.
No one said it was.
The future is thorium power….China is ahead of India in thorium power development and supply of thorium. A new company in the USA is going to convert coal to liquids….this was originally done by Standard Oil about a century ago.
There are downsides to thorium, however. One is that, thorium and uranium-233 are more dangerously radioactive to chemically process. For that reason, they are harder to work with. It is also more difficult to manufacture uranium-233 fuel rods. Also, as noted earlier, thorium is not a fuel.
India is hardly building new coal based plants. The government is a true believer. Solar is growing multiple times any growth in coal and nuclear.
Source?