Essay by Eric Worrall
Last year Trump successfully lobbied for deferral of a global carbon tax on maritime CO2 emissions. But with 10s of billions of dollars at stake, the fight isn’t over.
China’s massive shipping industry is poised to lead green transition
by Mao Xiaoli | Jan 14, 2026
UN treaty on emissions, now delayed, would provide a tailwind for the market
Later this year, member states of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) will resume negotiations on whether to adopt an agreed plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from shipping.
China had originally supported the approval of the plan, known as the Net-zero Framework, at an IMO meeting in April 2025. However, about six months later, at talks on whether to sign off the framework formally, the country sided with the majority of member states to postpone the decision for a year.
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Building readiness in China
Although China voted to delay adoption, it’s still in the country’s interest to prepare its domestic industry for the inevitable transition.
Internationally, China could directly benefit from becoming a refuelling, or “bunkering,” hub for future sustainable marine fuel. Not currently one of the world’s largest such hubs, it could leapfrog some of the competition by supplying sustainable marine fuel. China is especially well-positioned to supply the likes of methanol and ammonia, which require cheap renewable electricity to synthesize.
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That said, leading ports in China — especially those that have already positioned themselves to become major bunkering ports — are already acting. In 2025, Shanghai’s port completed the nation’s first ship-to-ship methanol bunkering. And the port of Tianjin completed the first methanol bunkering for a car-carrier ship; while that ship was on its maiden voyage to Hong Kong, the government announced it will provide tax incentives for outbound ships using methanol as fuel.
Read more: https://www.climateandcapitalmedia.com/chinas-massive-shipping-industry-is-poised-to-lead-green-transition/
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From last year;
Oct 17, 2025
US-led alliance wins a year’s delay in adoption of green shipping deal
The IMO’s Net-Zero Framework will be up for approval again in October 2026, after the US and Saudi Arabia persuaded countries not to vote on it as planned
Joe Lo
News editor…
In April 2025, governments provisionally agreed the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Net-Zero Framework (NZF), which would penalise high-emitting ships around the world and use the money to fund the transition to cleaner vessels and fuels.
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The NZF was scheduled to set emissions reduction targets for ships starting in 2028. But this – and the rest of the framework’s timeline – have now been plunged into doubt. Although some technical work can continue, political progress will have to wait until October 2026 when delegates will next take up the issue of whether to adopt the NZF.
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Trump’s threats
Ahead of the meeting, the US government had threatened a series of measures targeting government officials who supported the NZF and threatening to make it difficult and expensive for those countries’ ships to call at US ports.
A joint statement by the US transport and foreign ministers said: “We will fight hard to protect our economic interests by imposing costs on countries if they support the NZF. Our fellow IMO members should be on notice.”
And on Thursday, President Donald Trump tried to intervene directly in the IMO process, urging countries to vote against what he called “this Global Green New Scam Tax on Shipping” and “a Green New Scam Bureaucracy”. In a post on his Truth Social platform, he suggested that the NZF would lead to higher prices for American consumers, adding that the US “will not adhere to it in any way, shape, or form”.
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Read more: https://www.climatechangenews.com/2025/10/17/us-led-alliance-delay-year-adoption-green-shipping-deal-nzf-imo-un/
If this treaty passes, ships will be forced to either pay a carbon tax, or convert to “climate friendly” fuels such as synthetic methanol or ammonia.
If ships choose to pay a carbon tax, China wins – as an officially designated developing nation China receives a slice of that carbon tax, which it could legally use to help capitalise its methanol and ammonia business.
If ships choose to convert to methanol or ammonia as fuel, China will be the major supplier of those new fuels. As a developing nation, China will be allowed under the Paris Agreement to increase coal use to cover the industrial inputs and energy required to produce synthetic fuel, a privilege which is not extended to “developed” nations like the USA.
Either way, Effectively China will receive a tithe on all global shipping, regardless of whether ships convert to using Chinese synthetic fuel. All they need to do is keep a few hundred million of their own people in abject poverty, so they can cling on to their “developing nation” status, while Party apparatchiks and Chemical Industry CEOs get rich by convincing the world to pay tribute to China for the passage of all global trade.
Despite President Trump winning a one year deferral, last year this plan is still a threat to US prosperity. Trump won a reprieve last year, but with this kind of money at stake, the plan is still very much on the drawing board, and will be a key agenda item in this year’s IMO meetings. Let’s hope more people wake up to what is really happening.
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