Via Eurekalert: Scientists quantitatively identify main causes of Russian once-in-a-century heatwave
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) states that the global surface temperature has risen markedly since the pre-industrial era. This warming has led to more frequent and intense extreme heat events over most continents. In summer 2010, western Russia was hit by a record-breaking heatwave, with the region experiencing the warmest summer since at least 1880 and numerous cities recording all-time high temperatures. Furthermore, in the context of global warming, future midlatitude heatwaves analogous to the 2010 event will become even more extreme, with the heatwave intensity increasing by about 8.4°C in western Russia. Thus, unraveling the physical processes involved in the 2010 western Russian heatwave is a matter of considerable concern within the scientific community.
Previous studies have elucidated that this extraordinary event in 2010 mainly resulted from internal natural variability, which includes but is not limited to the processes associated with El Niño to La Niña transition, the intensified Arctic dipole mode, the enhanced moisture–temperature coupling strength, high-latitude land warming, and increased aerosol concentrations. However, there is still some debate regarding the respective roles of dynamical and radiative processes in driving the 2010 western Russian heatwave.
A new study published in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters by a research team led by Professor Song Yang at Sun Yat-sen University, China, reveals that surface dynamics and aerosol processes were the key drivers behind the extraordinary 2010 heatwave. This study provides a new quantitative perspective on the record-breaking western Russian heatwave.
“To date, attribution studies have relied primarily on sensitivity experiments conducted with climate models, which often lead to large uncertainties in quantitative results due to considerable model biases. The coupled atmosphere–surface climate feedback response analysis method with the effects of aerosols incorporated (CFRAM-A) is an efficient, model-free approach for quantitative attributions of extreme temperature events. We applied this method to break down the surface warming in western Russia in 2010 into contributions from individual radiative and dynamical processes,” says the first author, Dr. Lianlian Xu.
“Understanding the physical and dynamical origin of regional climate extremes remains a major challenge in our effort to anticipate the occurrences and mitigate the adverse impacts of these extremes,” adds the corresponding author, Prof. Song Yang.
According to this study, the surface warming over western Russia in 2010 can be primarily attributed to the effects of surface dynamics (95%), followed by atmospheric dynamics (49%), clouds (19%), and water vapor (6%), which are partially counterbalanced by aerosol-induced cooling (−64%). Further analysis revealed that the total aerosol cooling was predominantly governed by organic carbon (78%), black carbon (36%), and sulfate (−21%).
This research offers a new perspective for understanding the mechanisms of heatwaves globally and is crucial for improving the predictive capability of such extreme events. The framework presented in this paper not only advances understanding of extreme weather event mechanisms but also underscores the complex interplay between dynamical and radiative factors in driving record-breaking heatwaves.
Journal: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters DOI 10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100724
Article Title: Quantitative attribution analysis of dynamical and radiative processes to the record-breaking western Russian heatwave
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Decarbonization of the Earth is almost like a scene ripped right out of the film Oblivion, where giant ocean harvesting machines sucked the water off the planet, abandoning the remaining human survivors on a barren, dead world that was ransacked by aliens. But in this case, the planet’s air is being stripped of carbon, the “God element” that is the very basis of life on Earth. This is a war on carbon based life.
Climate activists like Bill Gates and Klaus Schwab hate the sun, because it is the source of all life on earth… which explains why they are trying to block it out.
The climate scam was invented so the U.S Military industrial complex & dollar would not develop any competition. US ban on Chinese EV’s is just more proof the carbon/climate hoax was manufactured by the US in order to prevent the developing world from prospering or using their own natural resources… with the ultimate goal of America stealing them from sovereign nations through war/annexation: Because climate alarmism makes strong nations weak. Climate alarmism is a grift perpetuating usury which necessitates replacing industrialization with financialization for short term profits.
Rarely have I seen such biased and unfounded anti-American ideology. It is almost painfully obvious that although the Global Warming scare wasn’t necessarily started by leftist idealogues, they certainly glommed onto it in order to promote their ideologies. The UN being culprit #1, of course.
As for China, they have gleefully jumped on the self-destructive behaviour the scare caused, and have profited massively from it. You final paragraph couldn’t be more wrong if you tried,.
This policy comes at the expense of nearly absolutely everyone else including the American people. https://youtu.be/v7Oml-FedcM There is your one exception, China managed to prosper from the transition to renewables with cars and the like; making better and cheaper vehicles… and we couldn’t have that could we? So we banned them. They pulled it off because the Chinese economy has not been financialized like it is in the US. It is driven by industrial profits, not usury. The Chinese kept their banking sector in the hands of government. https://www.bitchute.com/video/mexA5I4nq8G6 For the first three quarters of 2025, China’s real GDP was up about 5.2% year‑on‑year, keeping the government’s “around 5%” target within reach.
OK. Thanks for confirming my suspicions.
Yeah, coal is king. And its ok to be straight white and male.
Actually, it definitely is OK to be straight, white and male. I can confirm. It’s also OK to be wealthy (having worked for my money). Sorry not sorry.
As for coal, I believe your beloved China is definitely making the most possible use of it, yes.
Rich and gentile as well Mr contrarian. As a result the CPC lifted 850 million people poverty in the last 40 years. Glad we agree beating down rich gentile nations because they are successful is not OK.
It seems China knows if you take the CO2 out of Earth’s atmosphere, you turn it into a planet more like Mars: Lifeless, cold, and completely unsuitable for human survival;
FYI, its ok to be smart also.
Top Global IQ Rankings for 2025: 1st: China (107.19), 2nd: South Korea (106.43), 3rd: Japan (106.4), 4th: Iran (106.3), 5th: Singapore (105.14), 6th: Russia (103.16). Would you look at that? Our top 3 enemies are the smartest people on the planet. Lower IQ individuals are more likely to resort to violence due to cognitive limitations that hinder creative problem-solving and impulse control as evidenced by studies showing a linear inverse relationship between IQ and violent behavior.
China: more engineers graduate in China in a single year than exist in the whole of America. China: 1 military base abroad: America 800, and they wonder why they are broke.
“the CPC lifted 850 million people poverty in the last 40 years”
They couldn’t have done it without Western tech and investments. But things aren’t so great over there now.
“the CPC lifted 850 million people poverty in the last 40 years”
The CCP did that by redefining the poverty threshold downwards. I have travelled extensively in rural China, and I can confirm that most people there are barely scraping a living, as has always been the case.
Many YouTube sites are saying China’s population is far lower than the official 1.4B. Do you think there’s any truth to that?
Well done….. Two factual statements.
Yes… Coal IS King, with Oil and Gas making up a great triumvirate.
And yes, straight white and male is also ok. !
What do you identify as? 😉
You actually believe the numbers offered by the government of China?
Why not? He works for them.
Not even the Chinese believe the numbers from the CCP.
We should not be forced to pay governments a plant food tax. Greening the earth is not a crime. Instead you should be incentivized to green the earth.
I fertilized mother earth on my own dime, and now the government wants a cut?
I wondered how long it would take for climate change inactivates to attack the “science” with rebuttals. It will only grow.
What are ‘inactivates’ and what are you on about? If you mean scientists undermining the ‘consensus’ ‘scientific’ mainstream, then they have been attacking it vigorously for decades. It’s whack a mole stuff, unfortunately. It will never win, but at least shows alarmists up for what they are.
I’m sensing some strange activism in the comments on this article.
“What are ‘inactivates’” = those countries that openly supported the AGW narrative but did nothing substantial to stop their CO2 emission increase. Those that went along with the scam only because it was to their advantage to agree. Science had nothing to do with their approach to AGW. To think these countries didn’t have the scientific muscle to figure out the scam is naive. And I’m saying now that the tide has turned so will they.
US went along with it to handicap the developing world. China went along with it to prosper and lift everyone up along with them.
The self-delusion is strong in this one!
Yeah, don’t believe your eyes, right?
When I read your comments? No, I don’t.
I’ve been to rural Sichuan, Guizhou, Hebei amongst other provinces and I certainly believe my eyes.
China, the Benefactor. That’s funny!
He or she or it must be Chinese- or Chinese AI.
According to the UAH Global Lower Troposphere Temperature Report 2010 the troposphere covering the more densely populated regions of Russia stretching north of the Caspian Sea including Moscow was warmer than the seasonal norm April – December 2010 up to +3.5C in July but in context doesn’t look exceptional.
UHI effect: Moscow recorded a record of ‘38.2 °C (100.8 °F)[92] at the VVC weather station and 39.0 °C (102.2 °F) in the central area’ (Wiki).
There was an equivalent especially cold period covering sparsely populated Southern Siberia, Mongolia and NE China from January – May 2010 intensifying in April with a max anomaly from seasonal norm of -4.5C.
Why is that not equally “of considerable concern within the scientific community”⸮
Look, in Climate Scientology, hot is a sign of Global Warming. Cold is a sign of Global Warming. Wet is a sign of Global Warming. Dry is a sign of Global Warming.
All warming (or cooling, or wet, or dry) is a sign of impending doom. All warming (or cooling or wet or dry) is caused by CO2, or possibly methane. It’s simple. The only solution is more taxes and more government control, or possibly a global UN government. Without elections, because people are too stupid to understand the problem.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/19/hump-day-hilarity-big-kahuna-warmy/
I love that one! 🙂
…even at the same time.
“here was an equivalent especially cold period covering sparsely populated Southern Siberia, Mongolia and NE China from January – May 2010 intensifying in April with a max anomaly from seasonal norm of -4.5C.
Why is that not equally “of considerable concern within the scientific community”⸮”
Because it doesn’t have anything to do with heat. Climate Alarmists are only focused on heat.
Well, yeah. If warm/wet/cold/dry air went to one particular direction, it did not go to another.
Air flows in Eurasia change significantly every few centuries, depending on which turn cyclones take. Worst cases of that (which actually happened) were rougher than most warm-monger tales. This one was a spooky hiccup — but still, likely just a hiccup.
deleted
If you write something and decide you don’t want to post it, just delete everything you wrote, and then click the “reply” button again, and the reply box will disappear, and nobody will even know you started a reply.
From the article: “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) states that the global surface temperature has risen markedly since the pre-industrial era. This warming has led to more frequent and intense extreme heat events over most continents. In summer 2010, western Russia was hit by a record-breaking heatwave, with the region experiencing the warmest summer since at least 1880 and numerous cities recording all-time high temperatures.”
The truth is the temperatures have not risen since the 1880’s.
The temperatures warmed up from the end of the Little Ice Age around 1850, and they warmed up to the 1880’s high point. Then the temperatures cooled for about three decades cooling by about 2.0C. Then the temperatures started warming again and warmed up through the 1930’s, with the 1930’s, being just as warm as the 1880’s. Then the temperatures cooled again from the 1940’s to the early 1980’s, by about 2.0C (Ice Age Cometh! period). Then, the temperatures started warming again and warmed up to the present day, with the high temperatures of the present day being no warmer than it was in the 1930’s, or the 1880’s.
So, in effect, the temperatures of today have NOT warmed above the high temperatures of the 1880’s, and the 1930’s. We are no warmer today that we have been in the recent past. There is no unprecedented warming today. And, since it was just as warm in the past with less CO2 in the air, as it is today with more CO2 in the air, logic should tell us that CO2 has had no discernible effect on the Earth’s temperatures.
Claiming today is the hottest time in human history is simply false. The written temperature record proves it is false.
Oh, looky there: It was real hot in Russia in the 1880’s! Just like everywhere else on Earth.
From the article: “Furthermore, in the context of global warming, future midlatitude heatwaves analogous to the 2010 event will become even more extreme, with the heatwave intensity increasing by about 8.4°C in western Russia.”
Well, there is no evidence showing that heatwaves will become even more extreme than the 2010 event. Note: It has been 15 years since this 2010 heatwave. When are the heatwaves going to become more intense?
The fact is Russia was not the only place experiencing very hot temperatures during this 2010 period.
Right here in Oklahoma, I experienced the hottest summer I can recall, and I’ve been here a long time. The 2010-2011 period was a very hot, dry period in the United States, too. I spent the summer of 2011 dragging a garden hose around 10 acres of land, watering the trees, because I feared they would all die from the heat and lack of moisture.
But we haven’t had such a severe summer since that time, and in fact, the summers have been getting milder, not hotter and hotter and hotter.
Climate Alarmists see only what they want to see. They are blind to anything that upsets their applecart.
I have to laugh at this one. Now, 15 years after the facts, the alarmists are suddenly awakening to the opportunity to attribute a rare heat wave to climate change, human-induced, of course. Yet why stop there when the same reasoning could be applied to the North American heat wave of 1936? And how about the Roman and Medieval Warm Periods? Wasn’t there all sorts of fossil fuel consumption then also? This theory is just another reminder of the desperation of the alarmists who will seize upon any weather event and blow it out of proportion, except the climate realists and general public have learned long ago to give them little credence.
And then there was that time when Sweden got 5-7 ℃ above modern temperature, ice at Spitsbergen melted away, catastrophic floods raged from Eastern China to Mesopotamia, and what was not hit by a flood was hit by a drought (peat drying up from Western Siberia to England). About 2300 BC.
Which is a bit much for cow farts, even if we count White Bull of Shiva himself.
The forest fire smoke would help to increase daytime maximum surface temperatures.