From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
You may have heard a cringeworthy advert on the radio recently from the Woodland Trust.
It features a woman putting on a soppy voice droning on about the “climate crisis”. She is advertising this campaign:
The climate crisis is having a profound impact on nature. It’s urgent that we understand how wildlife is coping with shifting seasons, warmer temperatures and unpredictable weather patterns.
Climate change has already accelerated spring’s arrival by an average of 8.4 days compared to the early 1900s. Now, we need you to help us find out whether the signs of spring are changing too.
Let us know whether you’ve spotted any of spring’s three vital signs – frogspawn, a singing song thrush or flowering blackthorn. Your records are crucial in helping us understand current threats and how climate change is affecting the health of nature.
So don’t wait – scroll down to submit your records before 31 March 2025 and play your part in nature’s recovery.
https://www.woodlandtrust.org.uk/visiting-woods/things-to-do/natures-calendar/springs-vital-signs
Is that the extent of the crisis then? Spring coming 8 days earlier than a century ago?
In other words, we now typically get the sort of temperatures on 1st March that our great grandfathers had on the 8th March!
Or to put it another way – Oxford now gets the same temperatures in spring that London had a century ago.
And this is causing a “profound impact” on nature? Seriously?
In any event, as we have always known, nature does not do averages. Spring temperatures have swung up and down by as much as three degrees from year to year. Yet nature seems to have managed perfectly fine.
Indeed it is arguable that spring weather is much more predictable now than in earlier decades:
But the facts don’t fit with the Woodland Trust’s climate agenda.
–STORY TIP–
The Environmental Protection Agency canceled two $20 million environmental justice grants that the Biden administration awarded to its own advisers, the Washington Free Beacon has learned.
Up the woods yesterday in East Sussex, it was bloody freezing cold,
Central England Temperature currently +2.4C above average for March, provisional to the 10th.
5C is 2.4 above average?
Lol
Try viewing the link (or at least groking it).
7.8C is 2.4 (2.2) above the average, therefore the avereage for first 11 days of March is 5.6C.
And it snowed at Cheltenham this morning. So?
https://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/news/cheltenham-news/cheltenham-festival-2025-snow-travel-10015367
WOW, a less dank and cold period of WEATHER in winter..
Where’s the problem with that. !
Only thanks to a few lovely early March days.
According to your link, the current temperature is normal for this time of year.
Oh my. We better tax the living he11 out of everyone and turn of the HVAC worldwide to save Mother! pfffffft!!!!
I’m in the same area, it wasn’t freezing, it was 9C, about 1 or 2 below average, whereas much of march so far has been 5 to 9 above!
4 days in march have been close to daily records in the mean CET.
Despite this my pear blossom is at least a month behind the crazy winter/spring warmth last year.
Nature is extremely adaptable and suggesting warming that doesn’t even cover the N/S variation in the British Isles is worrying is just crazy.
Averaging is the only tool in the climastrologists toolbox.
“Beware of averages, the average person has one breast and one testicle.” Dixie Lee Ray
and at least 4 pronouns
Fact Check: Men have breasts.
OK, one testicle and one ovary.
And half an uterus.
(Which half of a penis (a vertical slice or horizontal seems to up for debate.))
😎
When you can’t trust any data sets coming out of the met office then it all becomes meaningless.
Pretty obvious warming trend in spring temperatures in England, according to that chart. Last year was the record warmest.
So it’s not clear how the chart helps the argument being made.
The argument is: “And this is causing a “profound impact” on nature?”
The chart comports with this argument.
What do *YOU* think the profound impact on nature is?
Did you think the earth wouldn’t (or shouldn’t) warm after the LIA?
“What do *YOU* think the profound impact on nature is?” ?!
The question should be “What do ecologists/biologists think the impact is”.
Homewood purports to be one of those now.
I reckon that is just as likely as he is an expert in meteorology (he’s decidedly not)
https://arocha.org.uk/shifting-spring-and-its-impact-on-nature/
“The temperature of spring has always been variable between years: for plants and animals to survive these variable conditions they must evolve mechanisms to hasten or delay their breeding cycle to fit the conditions in any one year. A consistently warm set of springs will therefore result in consistently earlier biological spring, as nature responds appropriately.
One of the earliest signs (more than 30 years ago), that climate change was already having an impact on natural systems was the observation that biological spring was getting earlier. These now three-decade old studies identified that the timing of bud-burst in the UK and the dates of arrival of certain migrant bird species were getting earlier, apparently linked to warmer spring temperatures. Further research added to this, until a landmark paper was published in 2003.
This important paper brought together data from over 1700 species to demonstrate a globally coherent ‘fingerprint’ of climate change on natural ecosystems, opening the eyes of many ecologists to the dramatic changes that were already occurring all around. Thanks to the amazing work of 1000s of voluntary citizen scientists, we know that in the UK, the peak migration of 11 of our 14 summer migrant birds has shifted, mostly by more than 10 days compared to baselines from the 1960s. Dates of the first appearances of butterflies are similar and while advances in timing of plant events from bud-burst“through flowering to fruit ripening have been rather less, the trend is still evident across Europe.
There are two ways in which global change impacts on the timing of biological events could result in conservation problems. Firstly, if species don’t have enough inherent adaptability to match future spring advances, and secondly, if timing changes result in a mismatch between different species. Happily, all the evidence suggests we’ve not reached the limits of inherent adaptability in the UK so far. However, there is good evidence that timing mismatches are already occurring for some species, including widespread species like Blue Tits.
Blue Tits for example, time their breeding to match the spring peak in caterpillar abundance, which is itself timed to match the point when oak leaves are fully unrolled but still poorly defended. Timing of caterpillar peaks and oak leaves have advanced by identical amounts across the UK, but timing of tit nesting has only changed half as much, leading to poorer foraging opportunities at times of peak demand. The even smaller advances by migrants such as Pied Flycatchers have led to greater mismatches in the UK, and may contribute to some of the problems migrants are currently facing.”
Homewood says …
“In any event, as we have always known, nature does not do averages. Spring temperatures have swung up and down by as much as three degrees from year to year. Yet nature seems to have managed perfectly fine.”
And how does Homewood know?
Is he kept cognisant of the outcome of successive breeding seasons for (FI) the Blue Tit?
It takes articles like this to show that nature is not “managing perfectly fine”.
Else we wouldn’t know unless an expert.
Again we see the omniscient Homewood spouting bollocks about somwthing he knows nothing about.
No-one says that the climate isn’t changing, the debate is about whether CO2 has much or anything to do with it.
Minus one for telling someone what they should think (ask). Ecologists/biologists are people too, and some of them are not very fun on dates.
“spouting bollocks”
The ironing is strong with this one. !
Anyone that thinks that nature CANNOT adjust/adapt to changing climate conditions needs to go back and study the history of the Earth !
There have been FAR greater changes in the global climate than the small, natural, and highly beneficial warming since the LIA…
Nature still exists, and in fact, is more abundant in warmer climates.
Earlier springs happen because of warmer MINIMUM temperatures bringing about earlier last frost dates. This does not comport very well with most claims of climate change affecting maximum temperatures. Warmer late winter minimums will contribute positively to animal and plant survival in most cases due to less stress. This does imply that nature handles earlier spring perfectly fine. Coupled with later first frost dates it gives animal young more time to gain the growth needed to survive winter.
There are very few downsides to a longer growing season (e.g. earlier last frost dates) and a multiplicity of upsides. As Freeman Dyson said, the problem with climate science is that it isn’t holistic.
Diurnal temp change of 10°C, summer to winter of the same. Small temp changes over 100 miles north to south. Species that were marginal either adapted at the end of the LIA or they became extinct. At the end of the last glaciation, species either adapted as the global temperature increased or they disappeared.
You want to worry about the flora and fauna, start a group to prevent the next glaciation!
No. most of them are morons.
You, like the vast majority of ecologists, have a deep misunderstanding about how ”nature” works.
Natural systems are not static. They are always in flux. When a certain set of conditions does not suit a species, often they adapt and if not, another takes over. It has been just this way since the first microbe came into existence. You have zero idea.
Please stop whining and go away.
As I look at that chart, it shows what many a temperature charts show – a rise in temperature during the first half of the 20th century, at a time when CO2 emissions weren’t great, a reduction in temperatures as GHG emissions picked up, then a rise in temperatures that about matches the previous warming. Hard to tie that to the rather regular increase in CO2 during that period, and not very worrying to those of us who enjoy gardening, and can’t wait to get started in the Spring. .
All caused by CO2?
And England is still bloody cold. The Mirror calls anything over 20 C a “heat wave”.
The Met Office calls any temperature above 20C sustained for 10 seconds a heatwave.
And for the UK as a whole …….
Yes, it’s warmed since the end of the LIA.
Having seen the state of UK weather stations, I don’t know that anyone can be sure how much warming there has actually been !.
Certainly far less than what the totally unfit-for-purpose surface data indicates.
It crazy isn’t it. From stations that have an uncertainty of more than ±2°C to stations that have an uncertainty of more than ±5°C how does one know the sign of temperature change let alone the value.
I’m sure someone will pop off and say, we divide by the √9000+ stations and the uncertainty of single measurements made on different things just becomes negligible.
Valentia probably one of the most consistent weather stations anywhere in the world…
and close to the UK,
…. using TminTmax average (blue dots), shows 1930s was warmer than all the period after, up to 2020.
Only the HT + El Nino of 2022, and an odd spike in what looks like 2006, have been above that (ignoring the outrider in 1921.)
As I’ve said before …..
Valentia is a coastal station facing the Artlantic, where it’s prevailing wind originates.
And what does the ocean do?
Warms the atmosphere that blows over it (vastly mostly).
So what happened in the 30’ and 40’s ?
That was the peak of the AMO,
Which was running around 0.2C above the mean.
Accounting for the warmer period in the 30’s/40’s.
Additionally the PDO was in a warm cycle then, and we do know how that affects global temp. Don’t we?
Interesting the 30’s and 40’s was the only period in the historical record where both cycles were simultaneously in a significant warm period.
How many years can the chart match that trend and not result in people feeling warm or people doubting the chart?
Regarding your lasr sentence, The Woodland Trust don’t need no stinkin’ facts, it just needs taxpayers cash.
1. More rain is not a problem.
2. Warmer weather is not a problem.
3. More arable land is not a problem.
4. Longer growing seasons is not a problem.
5. CO2 greening of the earth is not a problem.
6. There isn’t any Climate Crisis.
Number 2 and 4 on the list.
Where the hell is this fabled global warming?
5C isn’t my idea of it
I am still looking for the boiling oceans.
When and if the oceans ever do “boil”, time to buy lobsters right off the boat!
(As long long as your butter isn’t also boiling.)
Hmmm … Has anybody ever tried to boil lobster in butter?
(Maybe I should have said “Yummm” instead of “Hmmm?)
You seem to be blissfully unaware of the meaning of the word “global”.
Global does not mean ‘local’.
Which is where your 5C is.
Says the guy defending a press release that talks about warm springs in England.
What a numpty
Yes you are as my above post illustrates.
And how are the two the same?
I did not say anything about the UK/England being a proxy for the Globe for GW.
Whereas Mr Strati’s personal experience of it being just 5C
As in … “Where the hell is this fabled global warming?”
Is confounding his belief that his garden should reflect GW.
It doesn’t.
As countless data, graphs, UAH data posted on here shows.
Never mind common sense.
Yet we have the usual suspects piling in.
Making idiots of themselves selves to peeps that do have common sense.
You are blissfully ignoring the definition of the statistical descriptor called “mean”. A mean can not be interpreted as occurring everywhere.
Maybe you give us the definition of GAT.
Says the guy linking to the CET showing a few warm days in early March.
Story Tip
Interesting post at Tallblokes
“Comparing temperatures: past and present.” Some quality data analysis from an interesting angle. | Tallbloke’s Talkshop
Interesting that Valentia (one of the most consistent weather sites in the world) shows the late 1930s as being similar in temperature to the period from 2010-2020
You have the wrong person.
I didn’t.
glob·al /ˈɡlōb(ə)l/
adjective
relating to the whole world; worldwide.
I take that to mean “everywhere”
As measured by tainted and totally unfit for purpose surface stations !
“You seem to be blissfully unaware of the meaning of the word “global”.
Global does not mean ‘local’.”
Sorry, Banton, you guys seem to switch between local events and “Global” events to prop up and support CAGW so often it’s hard to to keep them straight.
That’s all (diehard) denizens do on here.
Cherry-pick some place that is not reflecting the Global warming trend to deny its existence.
Bnice is on this thread implying that Valentia makes a lie of the temp trend of the UK, if not the globe after the 40’s.
Without having the slightest consideration of the Met reasons why.
“Cherry-pick some place that is not reflecting the Global warming trend to deny its existence.”
The GAT is “Global Average Temperature”. It is supposedly showing warming. If it is a Gaussian distribution then there are as many stations less than the average as there are greater than the average. Picking a point on the “less” side is *not* cherry-picking.
You are demonstrating the typical mindset of the CAGW advocates: “the GAT going up means *everyplace” is warming”!
You seem to be blissfully unaware that the word “global” is meaningless.
And you are blissfully unaware of how mid-blowing stupid is the thing that you have just written.
And you are blissfully unaware of how mind-blowing stupid it is to show a GAT without showing a standard deviation for the probability distribution of temperatures that determine the mean of that function.
You are probably blissfully unaware that in a time series, the change in standard deviations from period to period can result in a fake trend.
Can you justify that hasn’t occurred.
In addition a mean implies values both above AND BELOW the mean. In a Gaussian, there should be equal values. Tell us where the warming is not occurring.
We don’t actually have a “global” temperature. We have an estimate based on homogenized/adjusted data. Maybe those temperatures mean something, maybe
they don’t. The error bars are much larger than +/- 0.01 degrees for sure. In the past, we don’t have a comparable estimate. Most proxy temperature estimates have very large error bars and are averaged over hundreds of years. You can NOT compare these two types of estimates with Unknown error bars and make ANY conclusions. Not if you are a scientist, as I am.
Well, the last frost/freeze date for my area is around April 1. This has been pretty consistent all my life. Admittedly, I don’t go back to the 1900’s, but I go back quite a bit. I am a grandparent. 🙂
Making claims like “March 1, today is equivalent to March 8, of our grandparents” is just a ridiculous comparison.
And what was the equivalent when hippopotamus lived in the Thames during the Eocene? It certainly was not human emitted CO2. The bones are there, and inconvenient for the CAGW religion that ignores it completely.
North Dakota’s NDAWN network versus ASUS:
[story tip]
I like to consider myself a bit of a woodsman. Born on a wooded small holding that I now own and other woodlands I have acquired over my lifetime. I cut down diseased and dead trees and convert them into lumber on my sawmill. I am also a hobby beekeeper, though in my case it is more accurate to call myself a hobby bee swarmawayer. I mention this to simply convey the fact I keep a close eye on the seasons and the weather.
I have in my garden an Amelanchier canadensis, i have been watching this blossom for the past 40 years the same age as my son. Because it always blooms on his birthday the 8th of April, it is well noted/recorded marker of the year..
In all those years, I can say without any stretch of the imagination it is always there or thereabout in bloom on that day. There has never been a year where it was out on the 1st or April or delayed to the 16th of April.
We live in rural west central England UK at 215ft elevation.
The weather variation is real and none concerning.
So far this month we have had lunch outside on the patio table in beautiful warm sunshine, yet today it is a breezy 7deg.C cold and definitely an indoors day with the heating on.
In South West England we never reckon to plant any frost-sensitive plants out before the 15th May.
I have also known 2 inches of snow in early June.
As an indicator of the earliness of Spring, over 40 years a cherry plum in my garden has flowered at the earliest 1st March and the latest 1st April.
This year it started flowering on 15th March.
You mean it flowered next Saturday?????
Beat me to it. 🙂
Sorry, finger slip, 10th March
Sorry, finger slip, 10th March
Woodland Trust? Hmmm, exactly how much money were they getting through USAID? Perhaps a forensic audit of their books is in-order.
Repeating because I also would like to know:
Hmmm, exactly how much money were they getting through USAID?
“Climate change has already accelerated spring’s arrival by an average of 8.4 days compared to the early 1900s. Now, we need you to help us find out whether the signs of spring are changing too.”
Lets see if I remember which day the frogs started croaking before WW1… nah I forgot.
I grew up in Norther Kentucky.
I’ve lived in other places since then but I’ve been in Central Ohio for the last 30 or more years.
When visiting my parents and family still in Northern Kentucky, I noticed that Fall hit us about a week earlier and Spring hit them about a week later. Only about a 130 miles north/south difference.
This winter they got a lot more snow and colder temps than we did.
“Weather Weirding”?
US stone fruit growers have really long records of the start of Spring. Go ahead, insist they reset their growing season 8 days earlier. Duck.
People who think they can “play their part in natures recovery” have been fooled by the charlatans who suggested that nature was ill to begin with.
The only recovery needed is the mental illness that has massively developed in people who think they can do something to change natural processes.
It has never worked at anytime in human history as beating drums, dancing, throwing virgins into volcanoes and burning witches has proven time and again.
How horrible! Warmer spring. Longer growing season. Happy flora and fauna.
And extra CO2 to help it along… Absolutely zero down side. 🙂
Does this mean temp include homogenized urban readings?
Rachel Carson and her kin were worried about a silent spring a generation ago, which they ended up being wrong about. Now a thriving, boisterous spring supposedly starting 8 days earlier is a “threat”? There is no end to what leftists will worry about. Nor is there any limit to how often they’re wrong.
“Indeed it is arguable that spring weather is much more predictable now than in earlier decades:”
There is less year to year variability during a cold AMO phase, and more year to year variability during a warm AMO phase. Making it less predictable in recent decades.
Moreover, the AMO is always warmer during centennial lows in solar activity, so it’s not an AGW issue.
The AMO envelope is more apparent in the mean maximum temperatures than the mean minimum temperatures: