From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
h/t Joe Public
I find this very worrisome:
https://twitter.com/AndrewOrlowski/status/1843669739287261351/photo/1
Thingvad is Trading Director at Hybrid Greentech, who specialise in Energy Storage Intelligence, so he is a reliable source.
The X Feed is from Andrew Orlowski, who writes for the Telegraph.
This incident highlights the foolhardiness of relying so much on imported electricity. At the moment, of course, we were able to plug the shortfall, presumably with gas.
The Elexon chart below shows how the NSL Interconnector collapsed instantaneously at 7.50am BST and was only back up running at full power at 9.25am.
https://bmrs.elexon.co.uk/generation-by-fuel-type
On this occasion, it was OCGT which was quickly ramped up to cope with the outage:
The more we rely on I/C, the more we are vulnerable to these problems. And we won’t have gas power around to save us.
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So, without the gas back-up, how much of the grid would have tripped to maintain itself?
In theory an area equal to the shortfall but you get cascade effects that increase the greater the % of unreliables is in the mix. It also happens as you attempt recovery, there was an incident a few years ago when when the grid was restored a couple of minutes later it was lost with all the grid tied PV came back on line all at the same time.
https://www.theblackoutreport.co.uk/2023/08/09/9-august-2019-blackout/#:~:text=The%20Role%20Of%20The%20LFDD%20Scheme&text=In%20the%209%20August%202019,%E2%80%9D%2C%20several%20issues%20did%20arise.
Official report blamed a lightening strike but one result was a scheme to retrospectively apply different grid monitoring on grid tie installations and how they reconnect to the grid after power is restored.
https://www.nationalgrid.co.uk/our-network/accelerated-loss-of-mains-change-programme-alomcp/
The gas provided inertia. The backup came from batteries, pumped storage and probably fast start diesel/gas connected at distribution level voltages.
I’ve a post with details and charts on page 2 of the thread.
You gotta keep the politicians from trippin’.
You gotta keep the Grid from Trippin’
from Over frequency or Under frequency
OR
Inadequate supply or oversupply
STORY TIP
https://www.workboat.com/viewpoints/where-is-the-energy-sheepdog?
Which might seem a strange place for an article on energy, but ‘off-shore’ generation does involve US work boats.
(G. Allen Brooks is an energy analyst. In his over 50-year career in energy and investment, he has served as an energy security analyst, oil service company manager, and a member of the board of directors for several oilfield service companies.)
Try telling this to the Marxist fanatic Ed Miliband (Red Microbrain) whose aim is to destroy the UK economy.
I really do wonder whom he’s actually working for.
Instituting Marxism to save the planet was a genius move by Marxists. This time, instead of saving the proletariat, we can save the planet instead and Marxism will work beautifully.
shame all the BESS people are claiming credit
this is typical
They deserve a partial credit this time. Unlike December 22nd last year, when it looks as though batteries going off sync may have knocked off a bunch of wind, adding to the losses of 1GW at IFA1 interconnector and 0.4GW at Cottam CCGT. National Grid remain coy, but the frequency fell to 49.273Hz and was only arrested by Dinorwig winding up to full output. If there had been less inertia on the system they wouldn’t have made it in time, and frequency would have fallen further and faster into demand disconnection a.k.a blackouts.
Phew, having read that I am so glad Ed Miliband is on the case of unplanned outages.
Those stand by flywheels just can’t come soon enough can they.
Interestingly that drop in power when the Norway supply failed is almost identical to the power and reliable supply Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station can provide which was permanently closed the week before, along with its spinning mass erm, flywheel constituent.
Maybe we should hold onto the power station in case it is needed this winter?
The best way to provide solid inertia to a grid is the use a very large flywheel, driven by coal fired steam. 🙂
That large increase in gas use on October 8 must had sent a lot of noxious carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, we know that carbon dioxide causes hurricanes and that is when hurricane Milton reached its maximum intensity …
I think I’ll post that on Facebook to see how many ‘likes’ I get 😉.
Obviously from such study as you have carried out Chis the Facebook audience could not doubt for a moment the clear relationship. CO2 causes hurricanes and of cause tornados. 🙂
Send your thesis to the Guardian and the BBC will carry a full explanation of why Norway caused Milton to intensify or was it decline? It can be so confusing.
Frost here in the UK last night plus northern lights doing their thing down at 52 deg. North latitude.
Actually there was about 10.6GW of gas when the incident occurred, and it wasn’t ramped up till 20mins later, and then not by much.
A strong geomagnetic storm is underway, the strongest in years. Will the zonal circulation strengthen? In my opinion, yes.
I don’t know about zonal circulation, but we saw auroras here in NC last night.
I’ve been studying the solar flares and storms and trying to see if there is a correlation to Milton’s rapid intensification and subsequence abating.
While I make no claims there is a cause and effect, I am unlike the climate syndicate that claims the sun has nothing to do with Earth’s climate (change). It does seem that the solar energy entering the upper atmosphere is timed coincidently with the Milton degrading from 5 to 4 to 3,, almost 2. The scant information I have include possible upper atmospheric conditions do affect hurricanes (and other weather) and it is possible Milton lost wind speed due to the solar storm. Unverified, but possible.
Well some others are of a different opinion. One that I am sceptical of.
UK loses 1.4GW of power in interconnector trip, battery storage keeps lights on
By Kit Million Ross
Battery energy storage systems (BESS) from several firms helped the energy system recover after the NSL interconnector, which connects the UK and Norway, suddenly stopped exporting power to the UK.
At 8:47am local time, 8 October, Norwegian power exports via the North Sea plummeted from 1.4GW to zero, with frequency on the network falling as low as 49.59Hz in two seconds—well below the National Energy System Operator (NESO) operational limits of 49.8 – 50.2Hz. However, the system recovered within two minutes thanks to fast-acting frequency services, particularly BESS operations.
https://www.energy-storage.news/uk-loses-1-4gw-of-power-in-interconnector-trip-battery-storage-keeps-lights-on/
Is there really enough installed battery capacity to deliver 1.4GW for 1.5 hours? The outage apparently lasted almost that long. Color me skeptical. Plus the gas generation chart in the piece says it was gas.
the NSL Interconnector collapsed instantaneously at 7.50am BST and was only back up running at full power at 9.25am.
Unfortunately, the figures supplied in this article are in MW rather than MWh but they might give some indication regarding existing batter storage.
“If Cochno Road were to go ahead it would be larger, at 560MW, than the 450MW Hunterston battery complex, which is already in development and said to be one of the largest in Europe.”
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/24076234.cochno-road-battery-storage-community-fights-green-project/
For those unfamiliar with Cochno Road, it lies between Clydebank and Bearsden in Dunbartonshire, Scotland.
Good point. Please also note the gas station was on-line, generating minimal power when it was called upon to go on the max load, it did that admirably. Part of the cost of being always on to back-up variable generation.
It is possible.
From what I have seen in presentations by energy providers – it is a legitimate use for battery storage to shift power from solar PV – generated during the middle of the day – into the duck curve tail at the end of the work day.
But note this is basically a 4 hour time shift of maybe 2 hours of electricity production.
If it is charged up, then yes, at least for 1 hour. Connected volumes have increased rapidly, leading to heavy competition for revenue and poor returns. The actual contribution was less, at least after the first few seconds.
Only a portion of the grid scale battery is instantenous reserve. The battery has to make money by arbitrage , charging up during off peak and supplying power during the high peak times, there what most of the storage is used for.
One battery in Australia was found to be ‘batting for both teams’ when their reserve contract wasnt fulfilled when the grid needed it for a short burst
The frequency took rather more than 2 minutes to return to normal. 5 mins to regain 49.8Hz. Almost 10 mins to hit 50Hz.
Batteries did help out, but pumped storage was also important. Demand at transmission voltage apparently fell by ~1GW, probably because other distribution connected generation kicked in, including batteries and fast start diesel/gas.
Have you seen the wind power weather map they’ve started doing on channel 5 I think, like a weather forecast but just showing expected wind power prospects around the UK.
They opened with “renewables produced 45% of UKs electricity over the last 24 hours”. Now I think this must have been wind+solar+wood chips+nuclear, so that was dishonest for starters, because in the context, most viewers would think they were talking about the windmills alone.
Sponsored or produced by EON I think.
WEasels who state on TV that they will provide 100% renewable energy… delivered by the, er, grid.
Sky report, seems like it’s C5 pushing the green agenda and seeking advertising revenue from solar/wind.
https://www.skymedia.co.uk/opportunities/energy-outlook-report-on-channel-5/
Wind generated electricity this year, in the UK, has exceeded 5 Terawatt-hours curtailment for the first time ever. Given that the 4th quarter is typically a major curtailment season, there is a real possibility of 6 terawatt-hours of curtailment for all of 2024. The cost thus far is “only” 269 million GBP – 2024 curtailment spend would have been a record except curtailment payments fell from 71 GBP per MWh in 2023 to 51 GBP per MWh in 2024.
But fear not if 6 TWh curtailment is reached, the spend will *still* hit a record.
To put the 71/51 GBP per MWh in perspective: wholesale electricity costs are in the middle between these 2 numbers.
Nothing like paying worse-than-useless wind and solar to produce when nobody needs it, then pay someone else with useful generation to produce power when it IS needed.
I think 7+TWh is likely. Winter quarters are much windier, and the summer has added capacity that will be curtailed. Last year in Q4 curtailment was 1.8TWh.
According to Paul Homewood, open cycle gas turbines saved the day when we lost 1400MW. But the supplied graph shows they were producing only around 20MW to 40MW (ish). That seems a paltry contribution. Am I reading it wrong? Am I missing the point of the story?
(As seems ever-more necessary, I want to make clear I am not defending or promoting renewables; I just want to understand the claims.)
Unfortunately I think Paul didn’t dig deeply enough into the data. I have gone as far as I can for now. Look for my report at the bottom of the thread when it’s released : on approval for links/ charts included, I guess
That’s 100MW of the 1400MW in the last graph. Where did the rest come from?
It came from Good Luck. Bad Luck would have seen a grid crash
Funnily enough, gas kept my house warm yesterday – it’s been rather chilly of late maxing out around 12C and that includes any and all UHI. This tells me global warming has definitely gone on holiday somewhere – in all probability where it’s greater than the fabled global average; ie anywhere but the UK.
I said recently that I believe this is thee government to expose all the lunacies of net zero etc. Cue the moonbat:
“”Labour’s carbon-capture scheme will be Starmer’s white elephant: a terrible mistake costing billions”” https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/11/labour-carbon-capture-climate-breakdown
We know why sceptical people think this is a stupid idea – it doesn’t work, but moonbat has other reasons for reaching a similar conclusion:
“”The government’s plan for carbon capture and storage (CCS) – catching carbon dioxide from major industry and pumping it into rocks under the North Sea – is a fossil fuel-driven boondoggle that will accelerate climate breakdown.””
George’s mental breakdown is accelerating fast.
Cannons to the Right of him, cannons to the Left of him…. General Starmer’s fate might well be like that of the Light Brigade.
This time: sponsored by Lord Alli.
Fortunately, the Light Brigade had survivors. Can the same be expected of England?
Like moving all the industry to China, India and other “developing” nations will stop the emissions!
What do they think humans are going to do, go back to fireplaces for heat, candles for light, and horse drawn transport?!
They’re so clueless!
And yet on the 8th Oct NESCO’s press release said 2024/25 Winter was less likely to have brownouts than previous years, because of amongst other items more interconnections.
https://www.neso.energy/news/neso-publishes-outlook-winter-ahead
The higher year-on-year margin is driven by new interconnection, growth in battery storage capacity and an increase in generation connected to the distribution networks.
That the interconnection failed on the same day is an indicator of what’s to come get that Genny bought and installed.
Batteries are actually better than gas plants for this type of problem. They can change output faster and give other generators more time to ramp up.
For 5 or 10 minutes.
Unless they light themselves on fire.
So a lot of folks all over talking about the northern lights, maybe the outage was tripped by our friend mr Sol?
Our 8-cameras CCTV system experiences multiple trip offs of cameras every time our locality is in an Aurora / geomagnetic storm influence.
Must be something to do with the POE (power over ethernet) cables.
Even though they claimed to be shielded and suitable for outdoor use.
To bring the cameras back online, all I have to do is simply briefly disconnect each camera cable from the NVR (networked video recorder) box and re-connect.
Maybe I should erect a Faraday cage over the whole building? 🤣
Gas pipes tend not to blow down like electricity pylons.
But both can be blown up…
Gas pipes tend to freeze when there is no electricity to power the heaters. Just ask Texas.
If done intelligently, the compressors will be powered by gas sourced right from the pipeline. MOVING gas tends not to freeze; once the gas is stationary (if you’re using electric pumps due to stupid Eco-Nazi policies), then moisture within the pipes freezes up and bad things happen.
And windmills and solar panels.
I would LOL except this is a serious subject given that Nord Stream “mysteriously” blew up.
These lovely undersea power connectors … or overland power connectors for that mater.
Watt-Logic ‘Relying on interconnectors for imports carries risks’. Analysis of data 2022-23.
Found GB and neighbours had average wind for 76% of hours, high wind for 11% of hours and low wind for 13% of hours.
For GB only average wind for 67% of hours,high wind 18% of hours, low wind 15% of hours.
In total during 2022-23 imports met only 4.3% of UK electricity demand similar to solar’s 4.4%
https://watt-logic.com/2024/02/05/interconnector-imports-exports/
You will have nothing and you will be happy, but hungry, cold, and in the dark.
As in so many posts on WUWT, screen shots of something purportedly supporting the claims are presented but they are completely useless as none of the explanatory text in those screen shots is readable.
The charts in my post below can be viewed at readable magnification and original resolution by clicking on them and viewing in a new tab.
It will take some time before we get some more detail, but here is what I assembled.
The activities of batteries are not well reported in the standard BMRS data: I’ve suggested they should have their own category and report both charging and discharging. However those with professional grid monitoring software are better placed. It’s clear that this time batteries played an important role in arresting the frequency decline and providing some the backup until NSL restarted.
https://www.current-news.co.uk/batteries-step-in-after-interconnector-trips/
I think we have to be very careful in interpreting the available data. The best we can get is 5 minute average data. So although it appears that NSL went down in 2 stages, that is almost certainly incorrect, especially when you look at the system frequency chart which is only at 15 second intervals (second by second data will be released in a couple of months time): that shows the break downwards at 07:47:45 GMT, just over half way through the 5 minute period. It probably occurred 10 seconds later.
The other real difficulty is that the grid only reports transmission level data, and so any response by distribution connected sources is excluded. That will include distribution connected batteries and fast start diesel and gas generators. The result is that grid demand is reduced by any incremental distributed generation. Also, because of averaging it is not possible to see the real peak/immediate response. The loss of NSL is an obvious contingency for which there will have been a lot of routine planning – but even so, the response time needs to be fairly fast. It’s not the first time: here’s a previous occasion from almost full capacity:
https://image.vuukle.com/9ffc6604-feed-474e-a82d-c2de2f561502-9ae28566-a402-45c7-b1cb-e8a2b201d29c
There was only 151 GVAs of inertia for that event: this time there is likely to have been more with over 10GW of CCGT running, so perhaps the maximum RoCoF was lower than the 0.233Hz/sec recorded for the June event.
I’ve looked at the detailed 5 minute data, and it seems that the main transmission grid connected response came from “Other” (probably mainly batteries) and pumped storage.
It helps to look at the cumulative changes since 07:30 which gives a clearer impression of sustained response.