By P Gosselin
The CFS expects a somewhat cool and wet October across western Europe this year. Ground surface frost has already been widespread.
Hat-tip Snowfan
Chart: NOAA
As the chart above depicts, the deviations of the 2m temperatures from the globally valid WMO climate mean 1991-2020 are expected to be around 0°C. Above-average precipitation is expected.
This could be a snowy October at times for the higher altitudes in Germany… It’s a good thing that the gas storage facilities in Germany are almost full to the brim at 96% ahead of the third Russian attack winter in a row… Source: CFSv2 forecasts TA2m and precipitation Europe.
The ECMWF long-term forecasts also predict October 2024 will be quite cool across Central Europe, especially in the first half.
Cold Atlantic sea surface
The North Atlantic sea surface temperature between Iceland and Europe were cooled in the second half of September and offer less warming of the air layers close to the ground with westerly and north-westerly winds in western and central Europe: an indication of a rather cool October?
Source: Snowfan, NOAA reanalysis SSTA North Atlantic
The NOAA reanalysis shows the North Atlantic between Iceland and Europe in the second half of September 2024 to be undercooled compared to the global WMO climate mean 1991-2020.
With westerly to northwesterly winds, the near-surface subpolar air masses are warmed less than average, suggesting a cool October in western and central Europe.
Heating Season Is Starting in Earnest EARLY
As I said recently, the law of Sod is at work and this is going to be a cold winter of great discontent. Despite all the talk of everywhere in the world being above the global average – how does that work? – the UK isn’t, hasn’t been and definitely won’t be.
We’ve been using the heating (judiciously, of course) for a couple of weeks at least. They tell us how much warmer we supposedly are but reality stubbornly refuses to comply with the narrative.
Now that we have closed the last blast furnaces, the last reliable coal station and the last refinery is going we are dependent on imports – and whatever they want to charge for them. Helpfully the Guardian explains…
“”Exported gas produces far worse emissions than coal, major study finds””
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/04/exported-liquefied-natural-gas-coal-study
Of course, the Graun doesn’t want us using anything at all, but green policy stuff is usually self-contradictory. We have an abundance of shale. We still have the North sea etc.
And now we will depend on autocrats. Sound a bit like Germany and Putin?
Not sure about “the last refinery”. Last refinery in Scotland, yes, but not GB.
Yes, you’re right – but it is a large part of the Scottish economy, nonetheless.
“”the closure of Grangemouth was due to it being unable to compete with sites in Asia, Africa and the Middle East.””
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg3gwkkk4mo
Hmm, I wonder why?
You wonder why G’mouth can’t compete.?
The plant is old and inefficient and almost at the end of its working life, and to replace it with new modern plant would not be economic.
But it is only the refinery that is being closed. The adjacent chemical plants and the pipeline bringing North Sea crude oil ashore are all still viable and sustaining several thousand workers.
I see, government made it all easy for them to upgrade and modernise and they couldn’t do it.
I wouldn’t pin my hopes on the North sea.
Remember that the refinery is half owned by Ineos (Ratcliffe) and half by the Chinese Government. No-one really knows who is calling the shots.
lol lol Labour is well in with Tehran and Beijing.
That’s way too optimistic.
Let me fix that ‘The plant is old’ sentence for you so that strativarius’ /sarc isn’t needed: The government is forcing the plant to close.
I don’t understand how the government is forcing the plant to close. When your car is so old and worn out that it has to be replaced do you expect the government to replace it for you?
The government would jump at that chance.
In London, if you have an old but perfectly usable car you have to pay 12.50 pounds (US$16.36 at current exchange rate) every day you use it (there is no charge for newer cars or EVs). For many people that forces their car off the road. Governments can just as easily force coal fired power plants to close.
October is running warmer than average, Strat. Have you considered seeing a doctor about your persistent chills, checked the fridge door…..?
I’ve been in the UK for 3 months. I’ve worn a thick pullover most days, sometimes plus warm coat and/or raincoat. The weather has not been warm!
It must be all that political heat in Ulster
Maybe you can store it and ship it?
Spent last few weeks in central Switzerland. Daily range mostly mid-40s to mid-30s F. Lot of wet days. On the bright side, much of the usual Chinese horde stayed inside, making transportation at higher altitudes comfortably useable.
In the first week of September, we had the coldest recorded night temperatures for that week , 3c, 4c, 4c, on consecutive nights in East Sussex, 3 miles from the coast. So record breaking, but no mention in the MSM. I wonder why?
Have a ok at Germany:
OK, October..
End of September:
I thought that snow in the Alps was going to be a thing of the past with Global Warming?
Yup. I woke up to hear te CH boiler humming away…
UK has been weird. We are semi-detached from Europe’s weather – ours is really normally maritime and gulf stream, with south westerly airflows off the Gulf stream.
Only when that pattern reverses with huge blocking highs pushing Arctic air or indeed continental air onto our shores do we get seriously cold.
I’d love to believe in any long range forecast, but experience shows that they are in general total bunk. We still don’t know where the remnants of Hurricane Kirk are going to hit Europe, let alone any possible remnants of Helene or Milton.
The only think you can say about October weather is that it is historically very energetic with lots of gales and rains sweeping across everywhere, and that ‘Europe’ is very much not a monolithic entity when it comes to weather.
It’s relatively mild at the moment. CH only came on for two cold nights so far. What happens through the winter is up for grabs… Like the weather forecasters I have no idea. Unlike them, I will happily admit it.
Perfect weather around here in Colorado now as far as home energy consumption is concerned, no AC or heating needed. Also, the democrats around here usually shut up about global warming until the first hot days return in spring/summer. So pleasant.
My family in Florida on the other hand are dealing with the dangers and uncertainties of tropical storms and hurricanes. I pray for them.
This autumn and early winter may end up in being similar to 2021-2022. We were in La Niña then, the autumn was warm and dry along my part of the Front Range. For the first time that I can remember, we had no measurable snowfall until just before midnight on New Year’s Eve. The second half of the winter/cold season was the polar opposite, no pun intended. Late winter and spring were characteristically cold and snowy. We even had over nine inches of snow during a late season winter storm in the second half of May, 2022. Hopefully we’ll transition back to El Niño in 2025.
But the Experts say… It’s Too Late To Save Britain From Global Heating, Says UN Chief!
Brilliant news if only it were true, esp. for the North of the UK!
But, but, but the world is in flames and the oceans are boiling!
How can that be with the oceans cooling?
Curious minds want to ravel this Gordian Knot.
Maybe October won’t set a 16th straight record warmest month globally, as the last 15 months have according to UAH?
Cue Monckton…..
Do you believe the effect is “per doubling”, so there’s a practical limit in the single digits C, or do you believe there’s positive feedback leading to run away increase beyond 10C?
And all of it totally natural, with no human causation whatsoever.
In the last century mankind (personkind) have progressed from the “common man” (person) to the “superfluous man “(person) and now we have progressed to the “golden age of BS!
Warmer is better.
Why do you insist on claiming to see boogermen when there aren’t any there?
If some unknown entity dropped $100 cash in your mailbox every Sunday, would you call the police and turn them in for violating your mailbox space? Would you hire a private detective and offer to pay them $620 a month to monitor your mailbox to make sure it wasn’t violated by the anonymous donor?
Fear of the boogerman is not a valid reason to do anything; and warmer is (net) better, regardless of the reason.
This is the MetO’s graph of CET temps.
It can be seen that much of the summer (for Central England at least) has been above ave with a slice of Sep, and from the beginning of Oct it’s been around, now above, the ave (1961-1990).
Just a typical few months of variability.
I’d say “normal year” plus “warm February” but I’ve seen so much data adjustment I need to know how the source made their chart.
Basically all the year has been within the 95% range compared to the coldest period in the last 100 years. (1979 was coldest in most real NH data)
A total nothing-burger by the looks of it.
(oops – deleted by original poster)
I have to assume this is a poor translation from German.
What is the meaning of “undercooled”? Does it mean cooler as in a antonym for overheated?. Or does it mean warmer in the sense of being less cooler?
If it relates to the chart then probably cooler.