By David Wojick
My research report — Maine’s Massive “Floating Wind” Folly — is up on the Net Zero Reality Coalition’s webpage hosted by CFACT which sponsored the research. See https://www.cfact.org/netzerorealitycoalition/, which has a lot of other research reports as well.
Below is my Executive Summary, followed by the latest bad news on this ongoing silly saga.
“Executive Summary
This report examines several fundamental aspects of the State of Maine’s offshore wind development plan. It is divided into two parts. Part 1 examines certain economic issues, such as feasibility, cost, and progress to date. Part 2 explores the proposed development as it relates to the entire Gulf of Maine, namely because the project has not advanced to the point where the State of Maine’s responsibilities have been defined.
The offshore wind plan calls for development of 3,000 MW of generating capacity, an amount that is roughly double Maine’s average electricity usage. The viability of Maine’s offshore wind plan depends entirely on the massive transformation of the state’s grid from fossil fuel use to electrification. It is clear that the citizens of Maine have not been informed of this vast transformation requirement. They have certainly not approved it.
The offshore wind facilities will consist of great numbers of “floating turbines” operating at a scale and degree of reliability that hasn’t been verified to work in the real world. Such an assumption makes the entire plan not only technologically speculative but also enormously risky.
Extrapolating today’s small-scale facility cost would make the price tag for this project around $100 billion. That could rise significantly once large scale, hurricane-proof technology is developed and adopted, if it ever is. It is important the citizens of Maine be made aware of such great costs, as well as the far greater cost of the required electrification to place them into operation.
The state of Maine has initiated development of a facility to manufacture the floating wind turbines. This effort appears to depend entirely on getting a nearly half-billion-dollar grant from the U.S. Department of Transportation. But this grant is likely illegal as the program is for funding highway projects, not offshore wind development. We will explore that in this report.
On the environmental impact side of the equation, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) is in the process of leasing 15,000 MW of offshore wind development sites in the Gulf of Maine. The State of Maine’s proposed 3,000 MW development would come from some of these sites.
BOEM’s Environmental Assessment of this leasing program does not include the impact of building and operating the 15,000 MW generating capacity. They say that impact will only be assessed for individual leaseholds. This approach is mistaken as the full life cycle impact needs to be assessed prior to leasing, including the combined impact of all the leases taken together. A cumulative impact assessment is vital because it might affect the viability and nature of the leases.
The crucial need for a “cumulative impact” is also especially needed to assess the project’s impact on endangered whales, notably the endangered North Atlantic Right Whale. The Gulf of Maine is designated as critical habitat for Right Whales under the Endangered Species Act.
The Environmental Assessment does include the leasehold sonar surveys prior to construction. Recent analysis has determined such surveys are likely responsible for numerous whale deaths along the Atlantic Coast. It is therefore imperative the BOEM and NOAA carefully assess the potentially lethal impact of leasehold surveys on whales before any surveys are approved.”
End of Executive Summary. Now for the bad news.
BOEM has scheduled the Gulf of Maine lease sale for October 29, 2024, just before the elections. They are trying to beat the clock since President Trump has promised to kill offshore wind if elected. Of course, they may also try to award leases before the inauguration because the development of awarded leases is much harder to stop.
Note that at the end of the Executive Summary above, I discuss BOEM, including the leasehold sonar surveys in the Environmental Assessment (EA). That was promised in the draft EA, but in the final EA, just published to make way for the quick sale, that assessment was completely dropped. No doubt, this was to avoid the new findings that sonar surveys can cause whale deaths in large numbers.
If Trump wins, I would like to see a separate Transition Team for BOEM handing out resignation letters. BOEM’s blatant disregard for whale deaths is despicable.
The Report is here: http://www.cfact.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Maines-massive-floating-wind-folly.pdf
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Save the whales! And birds, and bats, and apparently the US economy.
Headline correction:
Maine Government Quadruples Energy Costs for All Maine Citizens and Creates $100 Billion Subsidy for Eco-Millionaires
The Elimination of any wind project under development is as easy as the elimination of any/every current wind project.
Simply remove the subsidy from the equation. Without subsidies, wind has no profit margin.
Our government is disgraceful, a true embarrassment.
You wouldn’t want to live in the UK then
The UK started to fall apart after WW one, then WW two was the death blow, which was made worse by rampant illegal walk-ins from all over, and a series of very poor leaders after Churchill.
Supporting the expensive, useless relic, called “Royalty cabal”, is an additional burden
“Our government is disgraceful, a true embarrassment.”
True, but it is still better than any of the alternatives.
The question is, for how long and can we, the deplorables, actually right the ship.
The problem is not the elected government so much as the non elected, unaccountable appointed bureaucrats and administrators. They are making law, that is not their job, they are acting like courts that is not their job, they are enforcing their laws that is not their job. They are acting outside the Constitution in my view, it has to stop.
Thanks David.
The $100 billion works out, I think, to about $296.58 per person (all) in the USA.
I’d like to have the option of selecting where my $296.58 goes. 🤠
The heavily screwed-over Mainers will suffer the most for many decades
Ah, then you would like a true democracy where everyone votes on everythinig.
We live in a Constitutional Republic. Our electoral process allows us to “hire” people to represent us.
Sadly, the political party system in this country has forgotten that.
Story Tip
This is somewhat off-topic, but a fire broke out in a cargo container of lithium-ion batteries at the Port of Montreal. Nearby residents had to be evacuated from their homes….
Port of Montreal lithium battery fire leaves residents with more questions than answers – YouTube
How much longer is this ongoing issue going to be ignored in the green energy camp?
No “greenhouse” gasses there so it is not adding to global warming.
Nope, just smoke that is toxic to human health.
So a win for those considering humans a cancer on Gaia?
It is pretty potent shit that gets out when burning lithium batteries:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5577247/
A win, win, all around
How much longer? As long as possible.
From the above well-written summary:
“It is therefore imperative the BOEM and NOAA carefully assess the potentially lethal impact of leasehold surveys on whales before any surveys are approved.”
It is also imperative that BOEM, NOAA, EPA, and Interior Department US Fish and Wildlife Service carefully assess the impact of acoustic vibrations—generated by rotating turbine blades, transmitted via the turbine tower mount into the floating substructure and thence into the mooring cables and finally into the ocean waters—on all species of whales, fishes and other marine life local to, or transiting, the areas of the leases.
In particular, the high sensitivity of whales to ambient ocean noises has been well-documented scientifically. For example, https://journeynorth.org/tm/hwhale/SingingHumpback.html cites this:
“Hearing is a well-developed sense in all cetaceans, largely because of the sensitive reception of waterborne vibrations through bones in the head. Take a look at the size of a whale’s head compared to its entire skeleton. You will notice that the head comprises up to one third of the total body length . . . Whales also emit low frequency sound waves . . . These sound waves can travel very far in water without losing energy. Researchers believe that some of these low frequency sounds can travel more than 10,000 miles in some levels of the ocean!“
(my bold emphasis added)
The generation of humans that cause whales to lose their abilities to hear and communicate with each other underwater will deserve to forever live in infamy.
Submarines have low frequency long range communications technology. Bandwidth is low, of course, but the distance is great, > 10K mi.
You could quadruple the wind plan of Maine’s average electricity usage and it still would not be enough on calm days.
Nor during storms (nor’easters and hurricanes) where the turbines must be locked in a “feathered” position to avoid overstressing the blades and support tower from too-high wind speeds and/or excessive levels of turbulence and/or excessive wave action.
BTW, as the attached chart (from “The Relation between Storm Risk and Wind and Wave Forecast Accuracy in the North Atlantic Ocean”, Zastrau, D., et.al., [2015] International Journal of Environmental Science and Development. 6. 83-87. 10.7763/IJESD.2015.V6.566.) shows, significant wave heights in the North Atlantic during storms can peak at about 8.5 m (28 feet). Now the anchoring of a floating platform to the ocean floor must have some slack to accommodate the vertical motion of the surrounding waters to allow for the diurnal tides. Therefore, just image the forces imposed by the mass of the turbine blades, the shaft and its bearings, and electrical generator and its housing being cantilevered some 150-200 feet above the floating base as it is pitched back-and-forth due to wave action, as well as being slammed backed-and-forth against its mooring cables or chains! Good luck designing for that without adding so much mass as to cause the platform to sink!
Harold the Organic Chemist Says:
ATTN: David and Everyone
RE: The late John Daly’s website: “Still Waiting for Greenhouse”
Please go to: http://www.John-Daly.com. From the top of the home page, scroll down to the end of the site and click on “Station Temperature Data”. On the “World Map”, click on NA, then click
on “Pacific”, and finally scroll down and click on “Death Valley”.
Shown in the graphic are the plots of annual average seasonal temperatures and the average annual temperature. The plots of the various temperatures are fairly flat. The concentration of CO2 in 1923 was 300 ppmv in the dry desert air and by 2001 it had risen to 367 ppmv.
I have concluded that the temperature data from this arid desert site falsifies the hypothesis that CO2 causes warming of air. Thus, we need not spend enormous amounts of money on these grandiose solar panel and wind turbine projects.
At JD’S site there is also a number essays on the greenhouse effect, the earth’s climate, and temperature measurements that are worth reading.
Finally, on Aug 1, I turned 80 years old and I am not to swift with my fancy new Lenovo laptop.
Since a picture is worth a thousand words, can some one get the temperature graphic of Death Valley and post it here?
I hope this is the one you are looking for….If you need others just ask.
Yes, that is the temperature graphic for Death Valley. It is quite amazing how constant the average annual temperature was. I wonder what temperatures for 2001 to 2023 were. Even more amazing is the enormous amount temperature data he analyzed and many graphics he produced.
The Australian government should check out graphic for Alice Springs. The average annual temperature has been constant since 1879. Hopefully, the temperature data would convince them there is no global warming and they should end the net zero program before they wreck the economy.
What is your evaluation of JD’s website?
Thank you for posting the temperature graphic.
If you look really good, you can see the near-invisible CO2/warming contribution.
The water vapor ppm did not change either.
The Antarctic also has seen no change in temperature
You are correct.
The issue is not temperature. It is how the atmosphere, land, and water changes energy equilibriums given constant changes in inputs (sun, rotation, moon, cosmic radiation, volcanos, etc., etc., etc.)
This ‘project’ brings to mind the tale of the Texas Towers (located off the east coast) that were part of the SAGE program back when – one storm in particular resulted in the loss of twenty-eight lives when one of the towers collapsed in a storm:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Towers
We know well the insane expense associated with floating offshore wind installations in the UK.
The strike price for floating wind is more than 2.5 times higher than the already extortionate price for offshore wind. No-one in their right mind would contemplate using this unsuitable technology.
Right mind is one thing. Greed is another.
Not much regard for those of us who make a living fishing in the Gulf of Maine either. No mention of removing the sand dune protection on Sears Island just to build these monstrosities?
You are to be sacrificed for the Holy Mission to Save the Earth.
“The offshore wind plan calls for development of 3,000 MW of generating capacity, an amount that is roughly double Maine’s average electricity usage.”
With due respect, MegaWatt (MW) is not a measure of power which is what Maine uses. False comparison?
I took the annual MWh of energy consumed and divided by the number of h in a year to get about 1500 MW (which is power). Seems right to me.
Dave,
These floating units will have much of expensive down time for maintenance and repair and spare parts, so a CF of 0.50 is wildly optimistic
“MegaWatt (MW) is not a measure of power”
You are mistaken: megawatt is a measure of power (energy per second).
Correct. An honest error.
Energy is joules. Watts is power.
Joules = Watts Seconds
Part of the manipulation of public opinion is the conflating of terms along with the creation of new definitions that are constantly in a state of flux so one really does not know what is being said.
“The viability of Maine’s offshore wind plan depends entirely on the massive transformation of the state’s grid from fossil fuel use to electrification.”
It’s a big state- even if this plan would work and could be paid for- distributing that power across this big state should be difficult, no? I don’t know- just assuming. Especially far from the coast.
The imported Haitians, etc., will work as low cost lumberjacks, or wind turbine repair men.
There won’t be any lumberjacks in New England. There is a strong movement here to end forestry. They won’t say it that way- they say we must practice “climate smart forestry”- which means cut much less often, and much lighter. That’s ignorant- against silvicultural science and long term economics in the interest of the owner. What I’m seeing here in Wokeachusetts, is that every medical office is now staffed by people who might be illegals- not sure, but most speak broken English. If they’re legal, fine- but I’m not sure about that. What’s bad is when you all a medical office and the person you’re talking to is barely fluent in English. If you call any government agency or medical office- the first question by the computer voice is- which language you speak!
That is the reason all these languages are on government forms, because those pseudo legal folks get employed by the government, and will turn the US into an ungovernable Tower of Babilon.
When a state agency does a webinar, they’ll translate it into about 20 languages.
According to Equinor a reckoning seems to be coming for offshore wind, floating or fixed.
They have recently decided to discontinue their offshore wind projects in Spain and Portugal having previously pulled out of Vietnam.
Their head of renewables also told Reuters that
“It’s getting more and more expensive and we think things are going to take more time in quite a few markets around the world”
They also said they were considering exiting additional markets.
https://www.offshore.wind.biz/2024/08/29/equinor-axes-offshore-wind-plans-in-spain-and-portugal-weighs-furthermarket-exits/
Meanwhile, the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) in it’s Global Wind Report 2024 said it ” expected bottlenecks in the supply chain from mid decade for multiple key components, in particular gearboxes, generators, blades, offshore wind compatible castings, towers and foundations. Ports and installation vessels with sufficient large crane capacity are also needed to scale offshore wind”
Wind Europe had also warned in June 2022 that there would be a shortage of the three types of specialised vessels needed to build offshore wind by 2024/25
“. . . expected bottlenecks in the supply chain from mid decade for multiple key components, in particular gearboxes, generators, blades, offshore wind compatible castings, towers and foundations. Ports and installation vessels with sufficient large crane capacity are also needed to scale offshore wind”
Uhhh . . .what other “key components” were NOT included in the listing in this statement . . . marine paint and chains, perhaps?
This statement… ‘The viability of Maine’s offshore wind plan depends entirely on the massive transformation of the state’s grid from fossil fuel use to electrification.’… makes no sense.
I hope you mean the plan makes no sende. The statement is correct, clearly spelled out in the 150 page official “roadmap” that nobody reads.
I used own a home in West Bath, Maine and loved the hardiness and industry of the people. However, I have lost sympathy for them as they keep voting in people that harm them.
Story tip.
https://apnews.com/article/offshore-wind-new-jersey-leading-light-delay-2cb809376f4c6fcb16a550d19cd37edc
The story is a disruption of a NJ wind farm construction due to an inability to procure blades.
Floating Offshore Wind Systems in the Impoverished State of Maine
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/floating-offshore-wind-systems-in-the-impoverished-state-of-maine
.
Despite the meager floating offshore MW in the world, pro-wind politicians, bureaucrats, etc., aided and abetted by the lapdog Main Media and “academia/think tanks”, in the impoverished State of Maine, continue to fantasize about building 3,000 MW of 850-ft-tall floating offshore wind turbines by 2040!!
.
Maine government bureaucrats, etc., in a world of their own climate-fighting fantasies, want to have about 3,000 MW of floating wind turbines by 2040; a most expensive, totally unrealistic goal, that would further impoverish the already-poor State of Maine for many decades.
Those bureaucrats, etc., would help fatten the lucrative, 20-y, tax-shelters of mostly out-of-state, multi-millionaire, wind-subsidy chasers, who likely have minimal regard for: 1) Impacts on the environment and the fishing and tourist industries of Maine, and 2) Already-overstressed, over-taxed, over-regulated Maine ratepayers and taxpayers, who are trying to make ends meet in a near-zero, real-growth economy.
.
Those fishery-destroying, 850-ft-tall floaters, with 24/7/365 strobe lights, visible 30 miles from any shore, would cost at least $7,500/ installed kW, or at least $22.5 billion, if built in 2023 (more after 2023)
.
Almost the entire supply of the Maine projects would be designed and made in Europe, then transported across the Atlantic Ocean, in European specialized ships, then unloaded at a new, $500-million Maine storage/pre-assembly/staging/barge-loading area, then barged to European specialized erection ships for erection of the floating turbines. The financing will be mostly by European pension funds.
.
About 500 Maine people would have jobs during the erection phase
The other erection jobs would be by specialized European people, mostly on cranes and ships
About 200 Maine people would have long-term O&M jobs, using European spare parts, during the 20-y electricity production phase.
https://www.maine.gov/governor/mills/news/governor-mills-signs-bill-create-jobs-advance-clean-energy-and-fight-climate-change-through
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The Maine people have much greater burdens to look forward to for the next 20 years, courtesy of the Governor Mills incompetent, woke bureaucracy that has infested the state government
The Maine people need to finally wake up, and put an end to the climate scare-mongering, which aims to subjugate and further impoverish them, by voting the entire Democrat woke cabal out and replace it with rational Republicans in 2024
The present course leads to financial disaster for the impoverished State of Maine and its people.
The purposely-kept-ignorant Maine people do not deserve such maltreatment
Electricity Cost: Assume a $750 million, 100 MW project consists of foundations, wind turbines, cabling to shore, and installation at $7,500/kW.
Production 100 MW x 8766 h/y x 0.40, CF = 350,640,000 kWh/y
Amortize bank loan for $525 million, 70% of project, at 6.5%/y for 20 years, 13.396 c/kWh.
Owner return on $225 million, 30% of project, at 10%/y for 20 years, 7.431 c/kWh
Offshore O&M, about 30 miles out to sea, 8 c/kWh.
Supply chain, special ships, and ocean transport, 3 c/kWh
All other items, 4 c/kWh
Total cost 13.396 + 7.431 + 8 + 3 + 4 = 35.827 c/kWh
Less 50% subsidies (ITC, 5-y depreciation, interest deduction on borrowed funds) 17.913 c/kWh
Owner sells to utility at 17.913 c/kWh
.
NOTE: The above prices compare with the average New England wholesale price of about 5 c/kWh, during the 2009 – 2022 period, 13 years, courtesy of:
.
Gas-fueled CCGT plants, with low-cost, low-CO2, very-low particulate/kWh
Nuclear plants, with low-cost, near-zero CO2, zero particulate/kWh
Hydro plants, with low-cost, near-zero-CO2, zero particulate/kWh
Considering the harsh environment, these turbines are not going to spin for twenty years.
The 5 Hywind FLOATING units, 6 MW each, were towed from Scotland back to Norway for a major redesign and overhaul after 6 years.
The total cost of round trip towing, lack of production for about 2 years, and major overhaul will add up to more than the original cost of the turbines.
Good thing Norway is stinking rich
Am confused. Looking at the British national grid site (https://grid.iamkate.com/), it shows that solar is generating 3.7gw of electricity at 12:25AM. I assumed the sun was not shining at that timeframe in the UK? How can their site show Solar electricity generation then?
Maine has about 1.36 million people.
Let’s suppose your estimate is ten times too big. It’s likely too small, but we’ll be conservative.
At a price of $10 billion (which as you point out could go up), a family of four will owe $29,400 for the project.
Our household uses about $100 of electricity per month. So that would pay our electricity bill for 294 months, or about 25 years … and that’s just the capital cost. It doesn’t include the amount that the Maine folks will pay for the electricity.
Madness.
w.