By David Wojick
The State of Maine just got a very strange offshore wind lease from the Feds. They call it a research lease as opposed to a commercial development lease. It has some mysterious features that are worth pondering.
There may even be a many billion-dollar trick here. We consider that at the end, after briefly explaining the mysteries.
To begin with, the lease is for a 144 MW “research array” of turbines, as it is called. Well, 144 MW is huge for research. The South Fork Wind site (fixed, not floating) that is already running is a 12-turbine, 132 MW commercial facility, so this array will be bigger than commercial.
It could cost $3 billion-plus the cost of the factory to make the dozen or so floaters. Different websites suggest different turbine sizes from 10 to 12 MW. Of course, if this is really research, they might use a variety of sizes, but the total is still huge.
Why so big is the first mystery, and the official explanations are far too vague to justify it. They mostly talk about research into things like efficiency, supply chain, and even jobs.
They also say the research results will feed into the commercial floating wind developments, which are pegged at 15,000 MW in the Gulf of Maine. But this seems unlikely because research takes time.
The commercial leases for the Gulf are due to be sold in the next few months (The Biden-Harris folks want to get as much leased before the election as possible, lest Trump win.) the research array has to go through the same permitting processes as the commercial sites.
The commercial site developments and the research array development are starting at the same time and going through the same steps. So it is hard to see how the commercial sites might benefit from the research, especially since the research is likely to slow down the array development. Research done after the array is running will be even later after the commercial facilities are up and running. Thus, who would benefit from this multi-billion dollar research is the second mystery.
Who pays these billions seems to be clear, as the developer is supposed to negotiate a power purchase agreement (PPA) with one or more of the big Maine utilities. The developer looks to be Diamond Offshore Wind, which is owned by Mitsubishi Corporation. They have been actively involved with the University of Maine’s patented floating wind technology for a good while.
Here, things get truly murky. First, if a PPA is supposed to pay for the array, plus profit, then it is very much a commercial development. Second, research is expensive and unpredictable so how can there be an advance PPA to pay for it?
There is no mention of the research being funded separately from the array, which would be complicated, to say the least. For that matter, who decides what research to do as things progress? Diamond, the University, or the State of Maine? It looks like Diamond works for Maine, but it needs to make money on the deal, which makes things very strange.
All that said, there is another possibility. This project is not about research it is about building the floater factory and demonstrating the University technology.
There is a monster wild card in the floating wind game, and that is the factory. Fixed bottom wind is very simple onshore. All you need is a good dock, a big crane, and a place to sit the components until they are taken to the site and installed. There are just a few simple components — monopile, tower, turbine, and blades. It is all made elsewhere.
Floating wind is made from scratch onshore then towed as a whole to the offshore site. The Uni-patented technology uses concrete floaters which might weigh 15,000 tons or more and are complex structures. Factory construction of floaters will be a huge job.
This fact about floating wind is seldom mentioned, and when it is, the language is usually deceptive. The industry talks about “ports,” not factories, and the Maine floater factory is called a port. See my. note that the factory will be operated by Diamond.
So here is what might happen. As part of the “research” Maine builds the floater factory and enough floaters to demonstrate that the patented Uni- technology works. Developers of the 15,000 MW of commercial Gulf wind have to choose technologies for their various sites. If they choose any other technology, out of over a hundred candidates, they will have to build the factory to make it.
That the Uni-tech factory already exists is a powerful incentive to use that technology. We are talking about maybe $100 billion in floaters or more. Under this scenario Diamond makes a huge amount of money, and so does the University of Maine and the State of Maine. So do all the suppliers and workers. Whether this is all legal is a question since demonstrating a patented floater technology is not research.
Mind you I am not claiming this is what is going on, but it certainly makes sense out of this supposed research array. The primary obstacle is that the Uni-technology has never been built at 10-12 MW scale and it might not be feasible. Also, the factory design that I have seen does not work, but that is a separate issue.
Watching this two hundred billion dollar floater game unfold will be very interesting indeed.
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As a former commercial fisherman I am sick over this, bad enough we have solar farms and turbines on our mountains. It used to be a beautiful state.
I may have gotten to the shallow bottom of the large floating wind ‘research array’ conundrum.
According to maine.gov, it was first announced Nov 2020 and was this size and scale of capacity. Rather politically ambitious.
It made no progress until now (for example, no partial DoE grants, no commercial ‘research partners).
Thatbit now emerges for permitting is likely for reasons outlined in a 9/2022 CRS report about the offshore wind provisions of Biden’s misnamed IRA. There is a provision that provides a 30% energy investment tax credit in perpetuity for any offshore project started by YE 2025. This is Maine and its partners attempt to have their cake and eat it to by getting their long stalled but named ‘research’ program funded under the IRA.
As usual, follow the money.
In cases linked to the IRA, follow the money all the way into the sewers that spawned the IRA taxpayer funding scams, and the parasites who spawned them.
How many whales in the endangered species list will be killed during this fiasco?
Maine turned down hydro power from Quebec recently. Where would they get the juice for a factory? Doesn’t matter, it’s for green jobs, they could burn wood if they wanted.
Maine voted to halt the transmission corridor from Quebec to Massachusetts. The reason was simple. Only Massachusetts and New York would benefit from Quebec Hydro , while all the environmental cost was in Maine.
I wonder why Maine and Wokeachusetts didn’t offer Maine a nice lucrative deal to get that corridor? But, I believe there are also a lot of enviros in Maine who didn’t want the corridor either. You know, trees would have to be cut!
I must disagree. Global warming is a global problem. People in Maine say the Gulf of Maine is rapidly warming and the lobster industry in Maine is doomed. Due to global warming.
If this is true, it is puzzling the the Green people of Maine did not support the transmission wires.
I smell hypocrisy of the highest order.
They will burn wood to heat their homes, because this dog won’t produce electricity to heat them.
I am taking the under on this one.
Say what?
Over/under is a sports bet. Typically that a team or both teams will score more or less than a certain number of points in a game. In this case I think they will get 0.0 megawatts out of this idiocy. What ever the betting line here is, 0.0 is the under.
How many MW of nuclear can you build for two hundred billion dollars?
Bob, your question asked another way might be –
how many dollars of $200 billion of US taxpayers money channeled through the Inflation Reduction Act would actually be used to build nuclear power generation plants?
(the answer would probably be – $nil)
Although I agree with you if we are going to piss our money away let’s hope for nuclear.
Probably better, faster, and cheaper to print the money in $10s and $20s and burn it.
Roughly assuming $30 billion per 1,000 MW (based on recent Vogtle costs), it calculates out to 6,666 MW. But be sure to account for the fact it is non-intermittent.
The reported cost of the two new Vogtle plants is $34B, or $17B per plant, not $30B each as you state. The reported productivity is about 1,117 MW of electricity per plant, or about 2,234 MW total, not 1,000 MW as you state. Per 1,000 MW, the total cost is about $15.2B per plant. So $200B would provide about 13 Vogtle plants producing 14,300 MW of reliable almost-always-on (but for refuelings and maintenance) nuclear power not the 6,666 MWs as you state. Those plants would operate for at least 50 years and probably much more. Wind turbines asea are subject to salt water and salt air corrosion and the erratic loads on the machinery by vagaries in the wind supply. Floating wind turbines asea are subject to the additional loads imposed by irregular motions of the floating “foundations.” They will likely last no more than 10 years, in my opinion, before requiring replacement. If exposed to hurricane-force wind from tropical hurricanes or nor’easters, they won’t last that long.
Structural engineers calculated the mean time to failure of 4.3 years for a wind turbine.
IDK. Santee-Cooper and SCE&G spent $9b on a nuclear plant before they walked away from it. The estimate cost at the time was the two AP1000 reactors would cost around $25bn (2017 dollars).
So roughly $32bn per 1000 MW in today’s money, or about 6,000 MW for $200bn.
If hopeful stock exchange listers put out a public prospectus like this, the directors and brokers would be sharing a jail cell.
The Maine and Federal officials behind these wind farms shenanigans should have the cell that the Dems have been trying to fit up Trump for.
(but that would require uncorrupted justice systems in states and DOJ)
There was once a Democrat congressman who claimed that Guam would capsize into the sea if all its people lived on one side. While that seems ludicrous to most sensible people, it may be true of floating wind turbines in a hurricane.
I remember that- the Dem was as dumb as a brick. I think he said it would tip over! 🙂
Rep. Hank Johnson said he feared that stationing 8,000 Marines on Guam would cause the island to “become so overly populated that it will tip over and capsize.”
I know next to nothing about wind turbines- but something tells me that floating wind turbines in the rough seas off the coast of Maine is a bad idea. All aside to whether or not there is a true need for renewable energy.
Are there any offshore wind turbines in Maine already? What happens in the nasty winters up there when the blades get ice on them? Shut them down or send helicopters to drop deicing fluids on them? I dunno- just wondering.
How often do nor’easters occur off the coast of New England?
No idea- but certainly every year, many times. Several anyway.
20 to 40 per year with 2 being severe (hurricane force winds.)
Somewhere . . . somehow . . . at sometime . . . in this whole shell game you can bet that more than a billion dollars of Federal taxpayer money will be put at risk.
It won’t be Diamond Offshore Wind money . . . it won’t be Mitsubishi Corporation money . . . it won’t be University of Maine money . . . it won’t be Maine electric utilities’ money . . . it won’t be state of Maine money . . . it will be US Federal taxpayer money.
Anyone remember what happened with an upstart company called Solyndra?
No risk, it will all be stolen or wasted.
Story Tip: as a MPUC Commissioner in the 2015-2021 interval, there is a background – some in written orders we gave (which are public), some in MPUC staff examiners reports (which are public), some in legislative actions, and some verbal comment, that would help you find the context you need. And it is quite a story.
Watching this two hundred billion dollar floater game unfold will be very interesting indeed.
Watching this two hundred billion dollar floater game unfold will be very very interest indeed.
“concrete floaters which might weigh 15,000 tons“
A large elephant can weigh 15,000 pounds, about 7.5 tons.
If my arithmetic is correct, we got 2,000 elephants lined up
to provide scale for one floater.
Doc says I have floaters – oh, never mind. 🙂
The whole idea is one massive white elephant
Maine is a very sparsely populated state with nor quite 1.4 million souls living in it. That is roughly 300,000 homes across the entire area of 35,000 square miles.
The suggested costs of the ‘research’ activity is £3billion plus factory so, say $3.5billion dollars all up. (I am being optimistic).
That translates into roughly $12,000/household for this one ‘research project’.?
Are the good people of Maine so short of energy options they are prepared to put that much hard earned into an offshore wind development/research project that would need to be rebuilt in around 15 to 20 years time? Remember the whole/maximum capacity is scheduled for just 144MW on a good wind day. Does anyone imagine that is a good investment for the citizens of Maine?
Follow the money. It is unlikely the people of Maine will pay for the entire debacle. The rest of us tax payers will be footing the bill.
FWIW, as of the 2020 census, Maine has 739k homes and 605k households.
Assuming your 15 year estimate is correct, then that’s about $400 per year. Still probably not a good use of money.
The Block Island project off Rhode Island is considered “commercial” and only has 5 turbines for a total of 30 MW. The CVOW project off the coast of Virginnia has two turbines that produce 12 MW and is considered a “demonstration” project. So 144 MW is considered “research?” C’mon man!
Don’t you just hate floaters?