From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
h/t Paul Kolk
A slow-motion collapse in the offshore wind industry continues to grow as sticky inflation and supply chain challenges force developers to delay or cancel major projects. In particular, progress towards the Biden administration’s goal of building large amounts of floating wind off the northeastern US coast is just about stalled.
Shell, which invested in a series of offshore wind projects in recent years, including offshore the northeastern United States, announced last week it would lay off much of its offshore wind business staff as the oil giant advances its program of refocusing on its core oil and gas business.
“We are concentrating on select markets and segments to deliver the most value for our investors and customers,” a Shell spokesperson told Bloomberg. “Shell is looking at how it can continue to compete for offshore wind projects in priority markets while maintaining our focus on performance, discipline and simplification.”
Wind turbine maker Siemens Gamesa announced even bigger layoffs, saying it would cut 15 per cent of its global staff to adjust to a slowing market. The announcement comes after the company reported a €4.6 billion loss for 2023, a losing trend that has continued over the first half of 2024…..
In light of the industry’s gloomy outlook, Westwood notes that “calls are ringing out for governments to provide more specific policy and regulatory support for technology development in addition to cost reduction and investment in port infrastructure to accelerate adoption.”
This is completely predictable, since the voracious rent-seeking wind business invariably calls for more government largesse in response to any challenge that arises. Unfortunately, the call is too often answered by policymakers who have made big political bets on being able to show off arrays of mammoth windmills floating atop various oceans and seas, intermittently producing some electricity – generally 25-30 per cent of nominal plant capacity over time.
This latest bad news for offshore wind could become especially troublesome for US President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign, since he has invested so much of his personal political capital in pushing a major buildout of floating offshore wind in the Atlantic northeast. A 2023 Department of Energy fact sheet sets the administration’s goal of installing 30 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 for the US alone, exceeding Westwood’s just estimated potential for global new capacity by that year by a factor of 10 times over.
To date, regulators under Biden have approved permits for 6 major offshore projects, several of which have already been delayed or cancelled by developers in response to tougher economic factors. In late 2023, major Danish wind developer Orsted cancelled two projects off the Atlantic coast, and Shell divested its 50 per cent stake in another in March of this year. Equinor and BP announced in January they were cancelling plans for their Empire Wind 2 project, citing similar economic concerns.
One US offshore project, Vineyard Wind 1, was able to begin delivering its intermittent 25-30 per cent of 68 megawatts (MW) to Massachusetts residents in January with the activation of 5 offshore turbines. The South Fork Wind Project was also able to commence first deliveries into New York in March, with 12 turbines capable of generating some proportion of 130 MW.
But this is less than one per cent of the Biden goal of 30 GW, with just five and a half years remaining until 2030. Given the wind industry’s insatiable appetite for ever-increasing subsidies and constantly rising utility charges, it’s an open question how many more billions of dollars the federal government will be allowed to print to keep projects alive before the voters start to rebel at the cost.
It’s a rebellion that could commence as soon as this coming November.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/03/renewable-energy-green-offshore-wind-disaster-biden
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Well even 1 MW is “Some Portion of 130 MW”…for that matter even my solar powered desktop calculator produces “some portion of 130 MW”
And then there’s…
Let me fix that last lime for you…
Unfortunately things are moving right along. Dominion is driving piles (they call it steel in the water) for its monster 2,600 MW project. Revolution is too up north. New York just contracted with two others including Empire 1. And Vineyard 1 is 800 MW. There are 28 big projects in the queue and most are moving forward. The 30,000 MW by 2030 is indeed dead but considering they had a surprise 65% price spike they are doing very well, alas. No idea what floating wind he is talking about. There is a 15,000 MW target for Maine but no leases have been sold yet so that is 10-20 years away.
But Trump says he will kill offshore wind. That has to chill/kill financing until the election. Interesting times may lie ahead. Here’s hoping.
Kill it. Waste of taxpayer money. These outfits would not be engaged in these projects without government subsidies.
Killing wind and solar is easy. End the production and investment tax credits and curtailment payments. By 2050 it can all be neatly stored in landfills.
Wind power’s 14 extensions of the Production Tax Credit also applies to solar power’s Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and its preceding tax favors. From 1978 to the present (46 years), 15 extensions belie the industry’s age-old claims of almost being competitive. Remember the New York Times’ declaration in 1994 (per Enron) that solar was “competitive” with fossil fuels? Remember Solyndra? Joe Romm in 2011: “It is clear that solar and wind are competitive in many situations right now.”
Trump may go back to being a Democrat and change all his policies if he is elected, there is absolutely no telling.
I would rather have two new candidates. Mary Kelly seems okay and the Democrats could find somebody.
Who is Mary Kelly?
Name just one promise that DJT reneged on.
1) That he would “drain the swamp”.
It took until October 2020 for him to sign the EO about classifying swamp-creatures as “Schedule F”, which Joe Biden promptly cancelled in January 2021.
The hope is that the next time around a similar EO will be signed on 20/1/2025 (instead of Q4 2028), leaving 4 years to overcome the inevitable legal challenges from the deep (and shallow) state bureaucrats (/ functionaries / civil servants).
_ _ _ _ _ _
2) One promise he did keep was “don’t start any new wars”.
Donald Trump made achieving this “promise” much more difficult for himself by appointing swamp-creature John “Bonkers” Bolton … AKA “the war-mongering neo-con’s war-mongering neo-con” … as his National Security Adviser.
Again, the hope is that he will have better support staff suggesting who to appoint to positions at that level of your “Administrative Branch” of government next time around.
_ _ _ _ _ _
PS : On this side of the “The Pond” I recall someone checked back through the various political party manifestos for all UK elections a few (2 or 3 ?) years ago.
If I remember correctly they had to go back over 35 (or 45 ?) years before they could find just one manifesto “promise” that a duly elected government then actually implemented.
All other manifesto “promises” ended up being reneged on.
.
.
.
No smirking at the back there !
My research indicates that all other western “democracies” have very similar track records on career politicians and the “solemn promises” they make during election campaigns.
Does anyone from the US or Canada or Australia or New Zealand or any western European country or Brazil or India or Japan or South Korea (or …) have any counter-examples ?
“1) That he would “drain the swamp””
Did he say when he would drain it by?
Most likely he didn’t realize how deep the swamp actually was.
That’s probably true. The story I heard was that in his early days of taking office, he realized that if he were to drain the swamp right away, there would be essentially no one left, which would probably result in chaos. There are optics to consider too. So he’s doing it a bit slower, and more organically. Rome wasn’t burnt in a day, and all that.
1) Where’s the wall?
2) Is America great again?
3) He would respect the will of the people?
The last point alone is why he’s not fit to be in democratic politics.
I’d also rather see 2 middle aged people running for president. Enough with the geezers, like me (at 74). Anyone over 70 is too dam old. It should be an amendment to the constitution.
Joe,
No, those fortunate to avoid much mental reduction approaching the century have, simply by living and using that good brain, acquired valuable experience that can have the capacity to help others.
I agree with you if you mean that the problem is more to detect mental loss and manage its harm from affected people in decision-making work. Geoff S
Well let’s just settle for a mental acuity test and see who wins.
That oughta do it.
Less than 1% of the first goal…. The world needs to get real.
At least that progress is better than the planned buildout of 500,000 charging stations by 2030 currently at .0014%.
The Telegraph’s post on offshore wind decline does not do justice to reality.
Some years ago I redid the EIA calculations for onshore wind versus CCGT, using ERCOT at then 10% wind penetration for backup and transmission. The result (over at Judith’s in guest post ‘True Cost of Wind’) was a CCGT LCOE of $58/MWh versus onshore wind at $146.
Same biased EIA now says offshore is ‘only’ 3x onshore. BUT the new wind shadow study says offshore wind loses about 30% of capacity because of shadowing. So (taking EIA at face value) offshore is actually more than 4x onshore, so more than 10x US CCGT.
The math just doesn’t work, as the wind developers are slowly figuring out.
30% capacity loss due to shadowing seems like a huge design failure.
Does onshore wind have equivalent shadowing losses, or is the spacing different?
At sea, at least 10 rotor diameters apart, to reduce overall 30% loss by about 50%
If lifetime 0.40 CF, it could become 0.4 – 0.3 x 0.4 = 0.28, which is unprofitable, or 0.34, with proper spacing.
But the Democrat States are willing to pay those prices to “create jobs” and “stop climate change”. The price spike is passing through. Gas is verboten. Offshore wind is on federal land so no landowners to deal with. Given those values the math works fine.
Sure the ratepayers suffer but their electricity comes out of the wall so they blame the utility which is not elected, hence they have no recourse.
All these well paying green jobs. Foreign sources of materials. Foreign companies contracted to install the off shore structures.
Yes, lots of American jobs. (/sarc)
Democrat are willing to destroy the borders to get votes
Democrats are grabbing at issues, such as wind and solar, to get votes
Democrats do not give a damn how much it cost, with multi $TRILLION deficit spending to artificially and inefficiently stimulate the US economy
Whenever I here that, it is “… create good union jobs …”
If you want wind power, just open your wallet even wider. And Rud, do EIA’s costs factor in transmission and power backup (batteries) costs? I think not, the whole truth is not one of EIA’s strong points.
Plus transmission and backup cost/kWh increases exponentially as wind penetration percent increases; it is called hitting the cost/kWh wall.
Plus as wind % increases, the backup generation fleet operates less efficiently than without wind
In Ireland, when it was an island grid, the average efficiency of its CCGTs went from 50% to 42% with only 18% wind penetration
Only Norway and Quebec, each with at least 90% big reservoir hydro, could be viable,
1) with up to 15% wind (because of gullible lay folks),
2) with up to 25%, but they have to lie and obfuscate, because no one no one would believe them any more; it is called the credibility wall
I wish a glorious anniversary of the Anglosphere today. America, Britain, Canada, and Australia should be very proud.
Once proud 🙁
You left out New Zealand.
Maintenance of these things, situated in the incredibly corrosive sea water, has to be very expensive. I spent 6 years in the Navy, and we had to work constantly to keep up.
Yes they are, I believe one such facility off the coast of Scotland is dragging a few of them away for servicing 6 years after instillation
Yeah. Anyone who has ever lived on the coast much less been offshore knows that sea water eats everything.
Almost half of the Netherlands is up to 6 meter below sea level and would have been eaten away, if the Dutch had not built dikes and piers for about 1200 years
After the flood of 1953, the Dutch built a expensive dike and pier system to withstand a 10,000 year flood and, as a bonus, has been steadily GAINING huge pieces of land FROM the North Sea
Beaches that were a few hundred feet 50 years ago, are now about a mile wide, as the piers are being lengthened
Try it, you will like it.
In the words of my daughter, Lt RN, it’s what Dabbers do. [RN RADAR operators spend a lot of time dabbing paint on rust]
I’ve never been in the military but I watch YouTube videos on the American military. I sometimes see top of the line Navy ships showing rust- so I appreciate it must be a constant problem.
Scrape & chip & paint. Sometimes drill and plug and paint.
An ongoing, never ending process. The sea is relentless. Steel is not self-renewable.
Maintenance is not part of the acquisition costs.
Wind and solar are losers everybody knows it. Without government propping them up at every turn they would be no where. The big problem is the government is propping them up with our money. That is crap.
Crap to us, but not to those making a fortune on the projects, including, by the way, politicians.
“Shell is looking at how it can continue to compete for offshore wind projects in priority markets while maintaining our focus on performance, discipline and simplification.”
Interpretation: Just like legacy carmakers with EVs there’s no point in us becoming woke and broke.
Biden has “political capital”?
In poopy pants?
Depends what you mean. 😉
Can’t get here fast enough.
If Hunter is let off because he did not intend to lie, it starts about 5 pico seconds after than announcement.
Offshore wind, onshore wind, PV solar, they all take more energy to produce, install, maintain, and operate than they will ever deliver to the grid in their lifetimes. They will produce more CO2 than if they were never constructed in the first place.
They have very large carbon footprints, which nobody see.
“It’s a rebellion that could commence as soon as this coming November.”
It took me a while to figure out what that meant. 🙂
But, I don’t think Trump has a chance.
But I’m convinced that the GOP will win both House and Senate. That may be better because we won’t have to deal with Trump’s idiosyncrasies. And Biden will get nothing he wants- he’ll have to compromise on everything.
Biden will just put the Republican House and Senate members in jail, and then he won’t have to deal with them.
A vote for Biden is a vote for an American Dictatorship.
That’s an exaggeration, which I suggest isn’t helpful. More like American Idiocy for a demented old man.
You think this illegal, unconstitutional Lawfare being waged against Trump is an exaggeration?
Your freedoms are at stake, Joseph. It’s that serious. Biden and the Democrats are using the power of the federal government to try to keep themselves in power in perpetuity by eliminating their political opponents. The classic move of dictators since time began.
You don’t see this? You haven’t watched all the illegitimate attacks on Trump from the Democrats since he ran for political office in 2016? You don’t like Trump’s attitude? If you were relentlessly and unfairly attacked the way Trump is by the Democrats, you would have the same attitude, I’ll bet.
The bottom line is: The current batch of radical Democrats running our lives right now are an existential threat to the freedoms of all of us because they are lawless and are trampling the U.S. Constitution for their own political gain, and their political gain is our loss.
he’ll have to compromise on everything.
In that situation, its more likely GOP will cave on everything, as they have repeatedly done in the past.
Probably true, but why?
Probably true, but why?
That’s a very good question. I wish I could answer it. They certainly appear to be cowards, terrified of the media calling them names. But I think there’s more to it than that.
amazing, suggesting that Trump won’t win- and I get 6 thumbs down
Of course he will win. Isn’t it obvious?
Whether or not the election will be fair is another issue.
Not at all obvious.
“calls are ringing out for governments to provide more specific policy and regulatory support”
Code for ‘we need more subsidies’?
Europe’s five wind turbine manufacturers have all been operating at a loss and closing manufacturing plants in Germany, Spain and Denmark since at least 2020. In February 2022 Wind Europe noted Germany alone had shed over 50,000 jobs in the industry over the previous six years They are increasingly losing ground to Chinese firms not only in Europe but also around the world.
Wind Europe consistently complains about the EU not creating the right conditions to support the industry via infrastructure and subsidies.
Wind turbines – the anthropogenic tipping point for the collapse of human civilization.