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Essay by Eric Worrall
Sell your automobile or the snakes will get you?
Venomous snakes likely to migrate en masse amid global heating, says study
Researchers find many countries unprepared for influx of new species and will be vulnerable to bites
Neelima Vallangi Fri 3 May 2024 19.35 AEST
Climate breakdown is likely to lead to the large-scale migration of venomous snake species into new regions and unprepared countries, according to a study.
The researchers forecast that Nepal, Niger, Namibia, China, and Myanmar will gain the most venomous snake species from neighbouring countries under a heating climate.
Low-income countries in south and south-east Asia, as well as parts of Africa, will be highly vulnerable to increased numbers of snake bites, according to the findings published in the journal Lancet Planetary Health.
The study modelled the geographical distribution of 209 venomous snake species that are known to cause medical emergencies in humans to understand where different snake species might find favourable climatic conditions by 2070.
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Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/03/venomous-snakes-migrate-global-heating-study
The abstract of the study;
Climate change-related distributional range shifts of venomous snakes: a predictive modelling study of effects on public health and biodiversity
- Prof Pablo Ariel Martinez, PhD
- Irene Barbosa da Fonseca Teixeira, MSc
- Tuany Siqueira-Silva
- Franciely Fernanda Barbosa da Silva, BSc
- Luiz Antônio Gonzaga Lima
- Jonatas Chaves-Silveira
- Prof Miguel Ångel Olalla-Tárraga, PhD
- Prof José María Gutiérrez, PhD
- Talita Ferreira Amado, PhD
Summary
Background
Climate change is expected to have profound effects on the distribution of venomous snake species, including reductions in biodiversity and changes in patterns of envenomation of humans and domestic animals. We estimated the effect of future climate change on the distribution of venomous snake species and potential knock-on effects on biodiversity and public health.
Methods
We built species distribution models based on the geographical distribution of 209 medically relevant venomous snake species (WHO categories 1 and 2) and present climatic variables, and used these models to project the potential distribution of species in 2070. We incorporated different future climatic scenarios into the model, which we used to estimate the loss and gain of areas potentially suitable for each species. We also assessed which countries were likely to gain new species in the future as a result of species crossing national borders. We integrated the species distribution models with different socioeconomic scenarios to estimate which countries would become more vulnerable to snakebites in 2070.
Findings
Our results suggest that substantial losses of potentially suitable areas for the survival of most venomous snake species will occur by 2070. However, some species of high risk to public health could gain climatically suitable areas for habitation. Countries such as Niger, Namibia, China, Nepal, and Myanmar could potentially gain several venomous snake species from neighbouring countries. Furthermore, the combination of an increase in climatically suitable areas and socioeconomic factors (including low-income and high rural populations) means that southeast Asia and Africa (and countries including Uganda, Kenya, Bangladesh, India, and Thailand in particular) could have increased vulnerability to snakebites in the future, with potential effects on public human and veterinary health.
Interpretation
Loss of venomous snake biodiversity in low-income countries will affect ecosystem functioning and result in the loss of valuable genetic resources. Additionally, climate change will create new challenges to public health in several low-income countries, particularly in southeast Asia and Africa. The international community needs to increase its efforts to counter the effects of climate change in the coming decades.
Funding
German Research Foundation, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación de España, European Regional Development Fund.
Read more: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00005-6/fulltext
Models all the way down.
In venomous snake filled Australia, we’ve developed a very simple solution to the snake threat: Buy a cat.
Greens complain about house cats decimating the local wildlife, and this complaint is largely true.
But one of the forms of wildlife cats are really keen on killing is venomous snakes. They like the taste. So most of us tolerate the occasional endangered bird being dragged through the cat door, in return for almost total protection from animals which could kill us or our kids.
Did I mention cats are really popular in my part of Australia? My cat got plenty of treats and fuss a few years ago when it saved me from a snake.
The snake unexpectedly fell off the rafters of an outdoor patio area onto my table, landing just behind my laptop.
The snake didn’t hang about, it was much too worried about getting away from the cat. Though to be fair it probably climbed into the rafters in the first place because my cat was stalking it. The snake got away on that occasion, though the snake was badly wounded – the cat clawed and bit it, but the snake managed to slip through a crack in a fence where the cat couldn’t follow.
Of course, encounters between snakes and cats are less common in an urban environment, my snake encounter occurred when I was living on an acreage property. Snakes aren’t the smartest animals, but they know what cats smell like, and usually stay well away from anywhere heavily frequented by their ancient enemy.
I’m not sure how popular house cats are in the nations named in the study, but I bet they will become a lot more popular if a venomous snake threat emerges, whatever the cause.
If they used the word “migrate” then they’re beyond full of shit.
The bigger worry is if all the people in Darwin suddenly decide to move to Adelaide. That would be a disaster of epic proportions. The McDee’s mess alone could make the Great Barrier Reef catch fire!
Rikki Tikki Tavi…
Kipling’s mongoose.
Get several and have Mongeese
When I was 14, my parents sent me to pick tobacco for income in school holidays, 5 weeks in Dec-Jan in the these hot tropics at Ayr, Queensland. The farm had trench irrigation, creating a haven for frogs. A gathering of frogs means mealtime for snakes. We’d meet several a day.Older pickers would wrap dead browns around unpicked bushes, so we’d end up with a handful.
The authors of this article fail to note the association between snake migration and the tobacco industry.
It is just as plausible as global warming causing migration. Or the hydrocarbon industry acting like tobacco people, so they must be snakes.
Geoff S
Much of the planet’s population needs to plan to move the Mars because climate change will force polar bears to migrate further south until they take over the suburbs. Meanwhile as more venomous snakes infiltrate urban areas, these will also become uninhabitable. And as temperatures rise into the bargain, agricultural failure and widespread famine are almost guaranteed, so what’s the point of staying here, anyway?
sound like a rarely discussed part of the plan
“climate change will force polar bears to migrate further south”
Wait there…. are you saying the polar bears will move south to escape the Arctic warming?
There is something there that is a bit puzzling.. please explain ! 😉
I think I have figured it out.
Because “the Arctic is warming twice as fast as everywhere else”…
…. eventually it will be warmer than the Tropics.
Is that right ??
You should be able to handle the coming snake apocalypse Eric…. 😀
(yes I’m that old….)
Eric,
My early years at Mackay introduced me to the family of Ram Chandra, one of the pioneers of milking snakes to make anti-venoms. His daughter or niece Naomi Ramsami was in my school class. Memory lane stuff, you handsome photographic lad. Geoff S
The researchers forecast that Nepal, Niger, Namibia, China, and Myanmar will gain the most venomous snake species from neighbouring countries under a heating climate.
So, I guess the only snakes Americans need to worry about are the ones tattooed on the gang members migrating north.
How on earth could snakes know where it’s going to be colder?. Oh, stupid me, they don’t need to wait for Darwinian evolution to drive the process, they can just use their smartphones to google it.
Ive had 3 near misses from browns really close calls around hay bales of course. I got another one by the tail with a linetrimmer(accident) but the shovel was handy luckily. 2 tigers one nearly got a dog and the big brown I didnt see cost me 4+k to save the dog who also didnt see it in time.
joys of rural aus.
I saw that Grauniad article last Friday and immediately thought to myself “RCP 8.5 ?”.
So, purely out of curiosity (and boredom) I downloaded the paper and had a look.
“Hang on a second”, my increasingly unreliable memory informed me, “didn’t the IPCC say that RCPs and SSPs don’t mix ???”.
Opening my “AR6-WGI_Titles-and-extracts.txt” file confirmed that the IPCC did indeed say that, in section 1.6.1.1, “Shared Socio-economic Pathways”, on page 231 :
So, the
palpeer-reviewers of the Martinez et al paper failed to spot that this paper’s “projections for 2070” used non-IPCC-standard scenarii.Also from the IPCC’s WG-I assessment report, in section 1.6.1.4, “The likelihood of reference scenarios, scenario uncertainty and storylines”, on page 239 (just 8 pages later) :
Anyone who has done even minimal checking of the various families of IPCC “emissions pathways” knows that the “old / CMIP5 for AR5” RCP8.5 pathway is neatly bracketed by the “new / CMIP6 for AR6” SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 pathways.
This means that for the IPCC, if SSP3-7.0 is above the “counterfactual” threshold then so is RCP8.5.
_ _ _ _ _ _
There are four figures in the Martinez et al paper.
An extract from the caption underneath Figure 1 :
Figure 2 :
Figure 3 :
Figure 4 :
In addition to the
palpeer-reviewers of this paper not knowing that the IPCC’s RCP and SSP “scenarios” are not directly comparable, they also failed to spot that the paper concentrates almost exclusively on the “counterfactual” option, i.e. it is “pure climate porn”.Urban researcher fantasizing another climate delusion.
Snakes love warmth.
Snakes love sunlight.
Snakes are reptiles and very warm reptiles are much faster and agile when warm.
People raising reptiles at home put artificial heaters into their cages and terrariums.
That is, the snakes ain’t going to migrate away from warmth.
It does sound like researchers took one of their personal fears, e.g., snakes, and modeled self satisfaction scenarios where they personally are very afraid.
Ask the researchers for proof of poisonous snake migration from warmer to cooler habitat.