By P Gosselin
The number of Germany’s corporate insolvencies in March reached the highest level on record, new data reveal. It’s the Great Green Energies economic debacle
Blackout News here calls the trend “alarming” and that it is “a clear sign of the worsening economic crisis. The news are based on data released by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
“There has been nothing comparable since 2016, the year the data was first collected,” reports Blackout News. “This development not only points to internal company problems, it also highlights the extensive economic challenges the country is facing.”
Insolvencies are even worse than during the Corona pandemic lockdown years.
“Exorbitantly high energy costs”
Analysts say the main driver behind the dire trend are Germany’s exorbitantly high energy costs, mostly due to the country’s mismanaged foray into green energies – like wind and solar – and the transition away from affordable and stable conventional energy sources like natural gas, coal and nuclear power.
“The wave of corporate insolvencies cannot be explained by poor business decisions alone. Rather, it is the high cost of energy, which is driving up operating costs in times of global uncertainty, and a tax policy that leaves little room for investment,” Blackout News adds.
Both, left and center-right, are to blame
The push to green energies, and away from conventional sources, began in earnest under the government led by Angela Merkel and her CDU center right party. The latest Socialist-Green coalition government, led by Olaf Scholz and Robert Habeck, have since pushed draconian policies that have only exacerbated Germany’s economic and energy woes.
Most experts argue that the government hasn’t been fixing problems, rather it has been making them far worse. It simply refuses to acknowledge the reality.
Industrial exodus…country needs more than just hope
“The current crisis demands far more from political decision-makers than just hoping for a calming of the market,” adds Blackout News. “Comprehensive measures are needed…the measures include a reduction in energy costs.”
Blackout News recently reported on the “industrial exodus” as “Germany’s economic crisis forces traditional companies to flee.”
Sad. The photo at the head of article could have been taken in any number of American cities or towns.
And in France too.
Rust belt. Been like that in some places since 1950s
Factories that make things are replaced by vast warehouses that store and ship imported items
When you price yourself out of the market, be it through wages/work rules or energy, expect businesses to go elsewhere
The one constant in all of your examples, is long term leadership by leftists.
If, and this is a big if, people get significantly poorer due to government policies, this government will be gone at the next election. Why do records only go back to 2016? No population has ever ever voted for increased poverty. Come On Man!!!
That’s why politicians divert to hot button issues rather than economic ones….
Voting doesn’t matter in Germany. They have 8 leftist parties, and one centrist party, the AfD. No party can win a majority, so 3 of the leftists parties form a coalition and run the government. Doesn’t matter which 3 it is, they’re all socialists, so whoever you vote for, you get the same destructive policies, kinda like here in the US.
That’s why proportional representation and coalition government is the most democratic, fairest and representative of the whole electorate – we are constantly told.
We in the UK have ‘first past the post’ which is why the same two tired old nags keep getting elected on the Buggins Turn principle.
I blame the people.
If you put the question as what are elections supposed to achieve – democracy or electing a government – the first past the post succeeds on the latter apart from a couple of recent coalitions. The problem with the PR system is that it does make it more attractive to vote for small parties but you will always have a coalition government where the small tail wags the big dog or they will leave. Although it extends the voting process – although Belgium once took 6 months to form a government while having no discernible ill effects – it would be better to then knock to smallest parties and vote again on a reduced number where it is more likely a majority government will emerge. The first vote would indicate where sentiment is going and in the Netherlands I believe having given Geert Wilders most MPs, the sentiment was that his party should govern but lacked to majority. A second round would likely have delivered this.
Bill, agree. The AfD is climbing in the polls. If they make it into a 3-party coalition next election Germany may begin a healing process that will takes decades to overcome the damage from energiewende.
The norm in Germany is a 3-party political coalition. In order to accomplish unanimity, the coalition must pander to the lowest common denominator constantly reducing and simplifying substantive issues to a level they can agree to, rather than putting things at a level that’s more suitable for the Country as a whole.
Lowest Common denominator
disapproving — used to say that the quality of something is poor because it is designed or intended to appeal to the largest possible number of people.
The left has been quite successful in convincing people that the rich are evil and have stolen what they have.
With the help of the media, they have also been quite successful in shifting the blame that their policies have been causing onto others.
Unfortunately there are way too many that won’t wake up until everything has collapsed. And even then, they will still support those who caused the collapse because they don’t, or don’t want to know, any different.
‘And even then, they will still support those who caused the collapse because they don’t, or don’t want to know, any different.’
The vast majority of people are ignorant of economics. Unfortunately, this includes many who have studied and bought into any Keynesian-based version thereof, i.e.,where Government intervention is a positive for economic well being, or:
GDP = C + I + G + (N-M)
Since the introduction of ‘Energiewende’ in 2011 the annual German GDP has increased by about 300 billion USD compared with the thirteen years 1997 to 2010 when the annual GDP increased by about 1500 billion USD (Trading Economics), the latter period includes the economic disruption after the last Russian occupation troops left and the moribund GDR economy had to be digested.
The German economy contracted by 0.3% over 2023.
That other world renewable energy superpower UK, the ‘Saudi Arabia of wind’ (Boris Johnson), is economically stagnant or in recession.
Boris Johnson was the ill-wind that did nobody any good.
He got the UK out of the EU stranglehold-almost!
Germany is still maintaining a current account surplus, albeit in decline. That is a good result for a country with policies aimed at destroying the economy. So a bit of time yet for sanity to prevail.
Things would probably change if Trump removes the US armed forces from Germany. It there anything in Germany that the Russians might want? I don’t think electric cars do very well in Russia.
I read an article recently on how the UK narrowly missed being on the hook for £billions of bad loans made by Brussels to southern EU countries like Greece and Portugal from the Covid Recovery Fund. As you can imagine when there are big sums are being handed out then big fraud follows.
The UK left the EU before the CRF was rolled out but countries like Germany and the Netherlands will have to pay these loans made by EU ministers in Brussels back at some point so taxes will have to go up for ordinary people and industry making Germany even less competitive.
The ECB will just print money to cover it.
A bit like Germany did in the 1920’s? This sorry episode has lost Brussels a lot of financial credibility and will make raising money in future a bit more problematic.
https://order-order.com/2024/04/11/greeces-e2-5-billion-fraud-adds-to-eu-woes/
You can only lose credibility if you had it in the first place!
Inflation is a tax that hits the poor the hardest.
I will explain it again on where it went wrong. Germany is the engine of EU industry and indeed runs account surplusses. But that money goes to the EU who hand it over to weaker economies in eastern europe. These are billions not invested in Germanys own economy, like investment, research, higher wages, tax cuts,… which would reinforce their economy. Being ahead is one thing, staying ahead is more difficult. The EU addopted communism, redistributing wealth until everyone is poor. Yes eastern europe economical grew because of those billions from Germany, The Netherlands,… but those economies have fallen behind and have been doing budget cuts to keep afloat. In the long term the EU as a whole loses. Thats my take on it.
The other guy gives a good example with the covid recovery funds. Again, the rich countries are paying and the poor are recieving funds. At some point the rich fall so much behind that they no longer can pay for the poor countries. Everyone again loses.I live in the richer paying countries and we have to make budget cuts every year. Now we are short of teachers, schools, medical doctors, dentist, infratructure is in bad shape due lack of investment and our industry is dying because EU policies.
In Belgium we see problem also. Flanders is rich, high employment, good industry but pays every year over 10 billion to poor Wallonia. Even after decades Wallonia remains poor. Think how much Flanders could do with that money to improve their competivity and life of citizens.Wallonia always comes up with a relaunch plan but they all fail. There’s no real incentive if someone else pay the bills. In the end it makes them both more poor.
The EU is by construction wrong and selfdestructive.
“Tax the rich,
Feed the poor,
‘Til there are no
rich no more…”
…but there are still poor. In fact, at this point the rich have joined the poor. Now who’s going to feed “The Poor™”? That, right there, is the entire problem with socialism, communism, and every other redistributive form of government (yes, I include the U. S. government, as currently occupied, among those redistributive governments), sooner or late you run out of Other People’s Money.
Red. We in the US ran out of other people’s money in 2008, We’ve been over the cliff ever since. We have an un-cancellable appointment with the bottom of the cliff, but the date remains uncertain.
How long has the fable “The Goose That Laid The Golden Egg” been available to humanity? Time and again Leftist ideologues of all stripes have ignored the cautionary tale. How many lives have been lost in governmental command-and-control schemes that deny its central truth. Socialism has failed everywhere it has been tried.
Wallonia is also ludicrously corrupt, especially Liege.
Need I add that the entire province is, and always has been, run by the Parti Socialiste?
Any economy which has a current account surplus has a balancing capital account deficit (Balance of Payments). That means more capital is leaving Germany than coming in – lack of inward investment.
Germany’s money is investing in other economies but not in its own.
If Germany is exporting more than it imports – exports being a cost – it means Germany is using its resources to benefit people in other Countries. With domestic industry focussed on export, with few imports arriving, this means scarcity of goods, lack of competition in the home market = higher prices. Germans therefore are saving rather than spending which is not making them wealthier not least because their savings are devaluing.
How is that a good result?
Electric cars don’t do very well anywhere when used for anything other than local shopping and showing off. Actually, the Russians want to sell gas to Germany but the U$ destroyed the pipeline. On the other hand, Trump would encourage extensive and mutually beneficial trade between the US, Russia and Germany. In any case, what the hell are US forces doing in Germany anyway? The USSR collapsed long ago along with the threat against which NATO (the US) was defending them. This time around America is the aggressive and expansionist power intent on extending its political, economic and cultural hegemony.
“what the hell are US forces doing in Germany anyway?”
It seems like the real answer is “propping up the German economy” 🙂
Eric. Agree. The US should have gotten out of NATO in 1992 and let it collapse instead of Clinton’s expansion of NATO to gain campaign contributions from the defense industry. Tragic.
The Ukrainians destroyed the pipeline. They didn’t want Russia to have the income and they didn’t want Putin to have leverage over Western Europe.
The US, under Biden, has no guts and had nothing to do with destroying the pipeline. Bumblin’ Joe ‘Dim Bulb’ Biden won’t do anything to provoke Putin, hence the stalemate in Ukraine.
Why are US military forces still in Germany? To protect Germany, so the Germans can keep spending on social services and green energy boondoggles. The US needs to move more forces eastward, where Putin’s thug Russia threatens free nations.
worsening economic crisis
A rather jaundiced way of looking at dedevelopment…. /sarc
I didn’t know russian gas is green energy, because the energy analyst seem to have the memory of a goldlfish.
You picked the wrong species to dis. Goldfish have very good memories.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00429-022-02553-3
They infuse the gas with a green dye.
Germany is reducing CO2 emissions … by outsourcing manufacturing to China, one of 175 nations that could not care less about CO2. China also has a lot of urban air pollution.
China has cheaper labor and electricity, so why manufacture in Germany?
Germany is losing another war. Their government is at war with their private sector. All 20 Nut Zero nations are doing the same thing.
Germany seems proud to be in the lead. But all 20 nations are marching in the wrong direction.
This sounds like being proud of leading when the entire group has just jumped out of an airplane with no parachutes.
These Nut Zero nations are shooting themselves in the foot, while claiming to save the planet, which does not need saving.
While 175 other nations, especially Asian manufacturers, watch and wonder: “What’s wrong with those white people?”
Like China and India, that have massive investments in renewables and EVs?
China is investing in the idea of getting the West to fall for the ruinables mantra while they are building a lot of Coal and Nuclear power a smart way to get the West to bleed their economies…….
The UN Sec.Gen. was correct. We are at a precipice. Proof? 20 nations are willingly jumping off.
Sparta:
Yes. We are in far more danger from the Left’s policy response to a imagined climate crisis than to any real climate change.
IIRC – One worker to another in a developing country:
“What ever happened to that country who used to buy all the stuff we made?”
I try to tell people but there’s something wrong with politicians, even university professors, and economists. We’re past the turning point. The only way to safe something is immediatly throw away the green deal, build gas and coal powerplants and deregulation. What we see is the opposite. In The Netherlands they want to increase the corban tax in 2025. All while their industry is shutting down. You have to be insane. The EU wants to start adding carbon taxes on houses and mobility. People are suffering from inflation, struggling paying energy and food bills, what do we get? More taxes, paying even more. There is no saving those people.
All politicians have fake decrees, they know and can’t do nothing. Human studies, political studies, law,… they know nothing. They make policies without checking to reality of it. Now farmers have to cut 50% of pesticide use. Is that even possible? Compare it to signing a law to cut 50% of birth control pills active ingredient. It either works or it don’t. In one hand we will have many more births and on the other hands failed crops so we can’t feed all those children. How about a law to reduce gravity with 50%? Would reduce emissions, lesser people braking bones when they fall.They would do it because they lack any sense of reality.
If Germany goes down, it will drag the rest of the EU with them.
You forgot to change pi to a simple 3.0 value.
The question before us here in the U.S.: Will the geniuses recognize and learn from the EU’s colossal mistake?
Unfortunately, probably not. Look at the blue states that are following California like lemmings, despite California becoming mired in debt and an environmental cesspit.
There is a very informative video about this.
Juliuan Reichelt published an article on 16th April 2024 (source: nuis.de) in which he refers to a video. Title: The exclusive video evidence: Habeck admits that economic crisis was “planned”!
Reichelt writes:
“Laws can be changed. Regulations can be cancelled. What cannot be reversed so easily is the destruction of our economy, the deindustrialisation of our country, which Economics Minister Robert Habeck is driving forward with all his might.
Until now, we were of the opinion that not even Robert Habeck could have wanted the recession in which the country finds itself. That although it is the result of his socialist green ideas, he did not actually want this economic catastrophe. But now Robert Habeck admits in a video that this crisis was also wanted, in the truest sense of the word: PLANNED. Once again: according to Robert Habeck, the fact that our economy is collapsing was just as PLANNED. Robert Habeck said these incredible words at an event on the crisis in the construction industry, which is just as important for Germany as the automotive industry. Every tenth euro spent in Germany flows into construction projects. If the construction industry is doing badly, the whole country is doing badly. And here is Economics Minister Robert Habeck:
“2023 was a very, very bad year, and that was basically the plan. That sounds very cruel, but it didn’t happen by accident.” Robert Habeck really says that. He even talks about the success of this “painful operation”. We always try to remain objective here at “Achtung, Reichelt!”, but I’m sorry, a Minister of Economic Affairs who stands in front of the cameras, in front of the suffering country, and talks such madness is no longer sane, he shouldn’t stay in office another day because he is obviously a danger to the prosperity of millions of people.
You can’t believe what Habeck is saying here, even if you’ve seen it, so let’s take a quick look at it again: “Sounds cruel, but didn’t happen by accident”. Your economic future is in the hands of this man. This is green socialism. They are deliberately destroying the German economy. And Robert Habeck admits it. The problem is that what this man has done cannot be easily rectified. Generations will suffer from his ideas.
If you are once again getting the uneasy feeling that Robert Habeck really has no idea what he is actually doing in the Ministry of Economic Affairs, then we can tell you that this is probably true. Robert Habeck probably doesn’t understand his own policies. We found a video from a press conference a few weeks ago where Robert Habeck presents one of his most important political projects, the so-called “climate protection agreements”. Not even Robert Habeck knows exactly what this is about.
It’s one of the funniest videos we’ve ever seen from Habeck, albeit terrifying when you consider that our country is in his hands: Robert Habeck doesn’t know the key figures of his most important project, he doesn’t really know why he shouldn’t say the figures even if he did, but he just goes for it. That is the symbol of green politics. We are ruled by total cluelessness.
In the so-called “negative Sunday question”, i.e. the question of who people definitely do not want to vote for, the Greens have now reached 55 per cent. This means that more than half of Germans do not want to vote for the party of Habeck, Baerbock & Co. under any circumstances. Until the last election in September 2021, the figure for the Greens was always stable at 35 per cent; now it is 55 per cent and rising. Only the AfD is even more clearly rejected (63 per cent) than the Green Party, but it won’t be long before the two parties are on a par.
Robert Habeck openly admits that the economic crisis, which is making us all poorer and will weaken and damage our country for decades to come, was planned. That is a confession the likes of which we have never heard before in this country. Remember that and above all: pass it on!”
It’s almost like there is a group of people out there making guiding decisions about how the entirety of mankind’s future will be organized.
Club of Rome: The Limits to Growth
Deutschland Energiewende ist gefucked.
For purely political reasons, Germany abandoned its twenty-two very safe and very reliable nuclear power plants and will never again allow a nuclear reactor to be constructed within its own borders.
But it is possible that surrounding nations will pick up some good portion of the industrial production Germany is now losing as a consequence of rising prices for energy.
Those industries which choose to relocate to other European countries, as opposed to Asia, will need a reliable source of electricity which has a stable and predictable long-term cost. Even if that cost isn’t the absolute cheapest which could be payed in the short term.
Besides NuScale, the other SMR company I follow closely is Last Energy, based in Washington DC. The firm is marketing its 20 Megawatt PWR reactor design to industrial businesses in Europe as a reliable behind-the-meter source of stable-cost electricity. AI data centers are another emerging market.
Their reactors will be located close to the industrial facilities which consume their power. Last Energy will own and operate those reactors and will be responsible for all phases of the nuclear fuel cycle, including disposition of spent fuel.
I got a real kick out of this April 16th article from Neutron Bytes:
Last Energy Targets Data Centers with a 20 MW PWR (Dan Yurman, Neutron Bytes)
Dan Yurman: “In the annals of trade show events taking place in Washington, DC, most exhibitors show up with elaborate Powerpoint slide decks and the occasional video. Taking a page out of the promotional legacy of P.T. Barum, who paraded a line of elephants down city streets to promote his circus, Last Energy brought a full-size mockup of its 20 MW PWR, complete with a huge crane to lift it into place outside the convention center.”
Last Energy has no current plans to sell its small reactor in the United States. The emerging market for their reactor design is in Europe in the here and now.
Years of expensive work would be necessary to gain an NRC license for their design, and the NRC’s very expensive LNT-based and ALARA-based requirements would add nothing of real value to their SMR’s basic nuclear safety features, which are already adequately covered by fundamental ASME nuclear quality assurance standards.
Here on the North American continent, after the cancellation of NuScale’s Idaho project, I’m expecting the Canadians to be first out of the gate in getting an SMR placed into commercial operation on this continent, possibly in the late 2020’s or early 2030’s.
What would be the impact on the worldwide market for small modular reactors if Last Energy manages to be first in putting an SMR into commercial operation in a western nation, possibly in 2027 or 2028?
Bring it on with warp speed ffs!!
Beta. You are definitely right about “Last Energy” not being able to get NRC approval in less than 10 years. But why attempt to build them is expensive failing socialist Europe, when they can make a deal with capitalist acting communist China and build them at a fraction of the cost?.
IMHO, it will take one SMR project completed on cost and on schedule for the ball to get rolling on SMRs in the western nations. The ball won’t be rolling very fast, but at least it will be rolling. Spend an hour listening to this Rod Adams podcast from December 2022.
Atomic Show #303 – Bret Kugelmass, CEO Last Energy
In that podcast, Bret Kugelmass goes into great detail as to how he and his firm are approaching nuclear energy. Their innovative approach to nuclear is not to use an innovative technical approach to nuclear. They only use technology which is already known to work.
Eastern Europe is the mosty likely near-term customer for the Last Energy SMR because those nations have a great near-term incentive to insulate themselves from the green energy follies of western Europe; and from the rapacious actions of Russia.
Take a look at the video linked to in the Neutron Bytes article. Possibly 80 percent of a Last Energy nuclear facility is manufactured offsite as fitted modules which are stacked together after initial site prep is complete.
You cite Last Energy’s “20 MW” PWR, and Last Energy’s website clarifies that to be a 20 MWe (electric output) power generation target. Today’s much larger commercial scale nuclear fission power plants, in the range of 300–1000 MWe rated output, are only about 33% efficient in their pressurized water thermal cycle used to generate electricity. One expects the thermal efficiency of a steam power plant to decrease as its physical size is reduced.
Therefore, any use of a Last Energy “20 MW” nuclear power plant—assuming such is ever built and sold—will be faced with the problem of how to dissipate something like 40-60 MWt power (as waste heat) on a more-or-less continuous basis.
That’s not going to be accomplished by fans moving ambient air, so any such “compact” reactor that is to be located near an AI data center or other large commercial business better also be able to use a nearby river or large body of water such as a lake for cooling of the PWR reactor’s steam power cycle.
Those devilish details.
You seem to think the Last Energy technical staff is stupid and that they don’t understand basic thermodynamics.
Video — The fit together modules which comprise the Last Energy 20 Mw Reactor
You will note from the video that the size of the reactor module is itself relatively small compared to the overall size of the Last Energy facility when all its various sub-modules have been assembled into one building, and that the roof of the facility is completely covered by a series of fans. A good place to be in the chill of a cold northern European winter.
You might note that a video is no substitute for solid engineering . . . I stand by my statement that fans just using ambient air, even though they cover the roof of a commercial-size building, will NOT be able to dissipate 40-60 MW of thermal energy (as waste heat).
Fans in combination with evaporative cooling using copious quantities of water just might work, but the resulting steam flow and subsequent condensation of such on nearby buildings will not make such a facility a “friendly neighbor” and will likely violate the local building codes. Of course, steam releases great amounts of heat when in condenses to hot liquid water.
As to your first sentence, no, but history has taught me that sales marketing for a new product is known to frequently displace any concerns expressed by the company’s engineering staff . . . assuming such exists as a competent subset of said company.
Finally, this too: cold winters are often followed by hot summers.
Insane. Predicted. Using incredibly expensive and unworkable solutions to a non existent problem.
Merkle’s deal with Gazprom (Putin) helped Germany with 55% of NG coming from Gazprom.
Perfect Storm for Germany: The pandemic, the global reset climate/financial/energy revolution, Russia’s War, Russia cuts off all NG to Germany, Nordstream bombed.
There are many other “what if’s” in the history of the enormous rise in global NG industry that can account for Germany’s economic problems.
My only question, who fleeced Germany and where did the money go? In general, evaporation means condensation somewhere else.
What if?:
Because Germany is the most important country in Europe, what happens there is important for Europe and the world to take note of. Thanks to Pierre Gosselin for highlighting the green failures there. If Germany cannot succeed, then what hope have poorer, smaller and less industrialized countries in the rest of Europe who are so sold on the green ideals?
Just model all the problem away with any wind drought-
“Worst week for wind:” But is that a reason to panic about transition to renewables? | RenewEconomy
Build the turbines and the wind will come.
I’m amused at the way these “renewables” carnival barkers are constantly fixated on the “average” amount of power generated by wind & solar.
I notice that none of the supportive commenters ever asked what the hell consumers are supposed to do when the weather doesn’t cooperate for days at a stretch, and the “storage” stash has been drained dry.
Ah-ha, they’ll say – that ‘s where our trump card will be played –
“Demand Management!”
(= renewables-speak for “blackouts”)
The article reports, “The latest Socialist-Green coalition government, led by Olaf Scholz and Robert Habeck, have since pushed draconian policies that have only exacerbated Germany’s economic and energy woes.”
We in America lead the way decades earlier with the late 1970’s Jimm Carter business model that says mine and manufacture nothing, import everything to save energy and reduce emissions. Staying the course on that destructive “path” has led us to $33 trillion of national debt that is accelerating at an increasing annual rate.
Meanwhile China and India have constructed new manufacturing capacity and developed their affordable coal resources to accomplish dominance in energy intensive industries. A sudden decision to end economy crippling ethanol, wind, solar and battery “investment” (waste) in the West would be helpful, but at a minimum it will take several decades to catch up to the East. China is so far ahead of us with nuclear power development we almost certainly have already screwed ourselves out of competing in the inevitable energy future. NuScale’s SMR most recent setback most likely ended are last gasp chance. Sorry about that.
The purpose is not to fix the climate. The purpose is to end capitalism and transition to a One World Order.
Too many statements made by UN, WEF, WMO, WHO, etc. (note UN is in all of those), over the past decades to claim it is mere conspiracy theory.
Germany is one of many countries that have failed with renewables. Meanwhile, if you believe the data, global emission are up, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is rising and temperates are still rising.
There’s a lesson here, for countries which are willing to learn from others’ mistakes.
The Marxist plan is working. Control the media. Control the politics. Control the courts. Then control the energy and defeat Capitalism. Germany has been swallowed by East Germany, not the other way around.
You forgot “Control the education system to control the children.”, control
Couldn’t be more clear this is purely government caused problem. The German people need to wake up and just say no.
The Market always “Trumps” economic/political strategies . . . eventually. Sadly after the political/cultural “agents of change” have left the arena and the resulting carnage, accepting zero responsibility for their destined to fail activities.
The fear of nuclear energy and GHGs, and love of RE could be supported by Russian disinformation campaigns.
Plain stupidity might explain most of it, but disinformation might have helped pave the way.