Susan Crockford
Over the last 10 years, Hudson Bay polar bears have morphed from being the “most at risk” across the Arctic to the “least at risk.” Who would have thought?
That’s probably because the experts now have to admit that polar bear numbers have not declined since 2004 and bears have been in good body condition since at least 2016. Southern Hudson Bay bears have apparently increased in number since 2016. How ironic is it that the photo above, taken in Hudson Bay — the only Arctic region where trees grow — was used to illustrate a recent Mother Jones article promoting a new prediction of future Arctic summer sea ice loss that’s said to pose a threat to polar bear survival.
Here is a brief retrospective of predictions for survival of Western Hudson Bay polar bears (based on predictions of future sea ice loss), my emphasis throughout:
2013
In 2013, Andrew Derocher told The Guardian (27 November):
“All indications are that this population could collapse in the space of a year or two if conditions got bad enough,” said Andrew Derocher, a polar bear scientist at the University of Alberta.
“In 2020, I think it is still an open bet that we are going to have polar bears in western Hudson Bay.”
Contrary to this prediction, sea ice conditions over Western Hudson Bay haven’t changed since about 1998: most years, the ice-free season has been about 3 weeks longer than it was in the 1980s. Summer sea ice conditions are not getting worse.
2016
In 2016, seal biologist Steve Ferguson told the Winnipeg Free Press (6 December):
Hudson Bay could experience its first ice-free winter within five to 10 years, Ferguson said.
“I don’t think polar bears and seals will be able to adapt. I think they’ll just die out in places like Hudson Bay. There’s little to stop the trend in loss of sea ice, even if we stop producing greenhouse gasses,” he said.
Contrary to this dire prediction, Hudson Bay has been no where near to ice-free in winter, see the sea ice development chart below showing ice thickness for the week of 4 March 2024:
2024
Steven Amstrup told the Winnipeg Free Press in 2024 (28 February) the following about Western Hudson Bay polar bears, seemingly in direct contradiction to a paper he co-authored last year:
Even so, the population seems to be faring better than the rest of the world, Amstrup said during his presentation.
“If there’s a likelihood of being able to save bears anywhere, it’s probably in (the) Hudson Bay,” he said.
The rate of decline in sea ice is lower in the western and southern portions of the Hudson Bay than anywhere else globally, Amstrup relayed.
This prediction seems like a clear admission that previous predictions were wrong. This means that any of the models that formerly used WH bears as a proxy to predict the survival of all other subpopulations, including the one published last year, are not worth the paper they were printed on. What a surprise!
I’d like to make a wager with Steve Ferguson re: an ice free winter in Hudson Bay before 2026.
“I don’t think polar bears and seals …blah blah…There’s little to stop the trend in loss of sea ice, even if we stop producing greenhouse gasses,” he said.
A seal biologist thinking he knows about greenhouse gases…..is a long ways from his learned skillset….
Polar Bears would do fine without sea ice ANYWAY.
And “greenhouse gases” don’t drive the climate!
Thanks Susan.
I have been skeptical of the Many-Worlds Interpretation (MWI) of quantum mechanics. However, the researchers claiming sea ice will disappear (in winter?) and Polar Bears will be extinct (real soon now) convince me they are living in a parallel universe.
Alternatively, they have severe cataracts.
The Arctic had much LESS sea ice than now for most of the last 10,000 years.
The PB are still there. !!
Current level.. Totally chockers.
Given his track record on predictions, when will Derocher lose his status as an “expert”?
To be an AGW “climate expert” you have to have at least a few totally wrong predictions under your belt !
and never ever apologise for them
AND never change your mind as a result.
The takeaway here is that polar bears have not disappeared and even increased. Yet CO2 emissions have increased all along. One has nothing to do with the other. Time for these guys to take a hike. How can anyone believe anything they say?
I really like the way you put things, Bob 🙂
Me, too, Bob. 🙂
Maybe all these “concerned” alleged polar bear “experts” should do a “walking with the polar bears” show.
Unlike the “walking with dinosaurs” shows, no CGI would be needed for the bears. Maybe for the “experts” after the bears ear them.
Everyone knows that polar bears are only capable of eating anything unless they’re standing on ice, right? They aren’t capable of just eating stuff on dry ground like other bears, obviously. We all know that polar bears already went extinct once during the super-warm Eemian 125,000 years ago, right? ( Do I need to add a sarcasm tag?)
They also didn’t make it through the Holocene Optimum.
Poor things.. now just mythical creatures ! 🙁
Yeah when Al Gore was born, there were 4,000 polar bears. Now there are only 32,000 left.
Somebody can correct my memory on the exact numbers.
The bears don’t need the sea ice, it’s the seals that need the ice. They need a place as far away from the bears as possible to haul out on to have their pups. The bears would take the adult seals if they could, but settle for the pups as the adult seals dive into the sea to make a clean getaway. If the seals haul out on the beach, it’s way more likely for the bears to get the adult seals AND get the pups.
It is enough not to hunt.
Is this the warmest winter in the Northern Hemisphere?
I don’t know if it is the warmest, but we have had a very mild winter in this area of the central U.S.
The opposite side of the Northern Hemisphere from the United States seems to have suffered the brunt of the cold weather this year, for some reason. Not much arctic air sliding its way into the United States this winter. I assume the El Nino circulation patterns are serving to block that arctic air from moving too far south on the U.S. side of the hemisphere.
This polar bear nonsense has existed for decades. Years ago, I investigated two environmental groups that claimed knowledge of the arctic. I don’t remember their names (one was WWF–I looked it up), but one group divided the Arctic into twenty-one regions, and the other divided the Arctic into twenty-three regions (the Arctic is not one monolithic environment). Basically a region would either decrease in temperature, increase in temperature, or remain the same. Most regions remained the same. Some decreased in temperature, and a few increased in temperature.
Of the regions where the temperature remained the same, the polar bear populations were stable. In the regions where the temperature decreased, the polar bear populations decreased. In the regions where the temperature increased, the polar bear populations increased.
So the hype about polar bears was backwards nonsense. Since then, I discount any negative news of polar bears.
Yes, Climate Alarmists are striking out with the Polar Bears narrative.
None of the dire Polar Bear predictions by the Climate Alarmists come true.
Well, after all, the scientific name for polar bear is “Ursus maritimus” – “sea bear.”
I have a book about polar bears – ‘The World of the Polar Bear’ by Fred Bruemmer , published 1989. Fantastic photos of the bears and their habitat and lots of interesting facts. Such as –
“And a bear tagged in 1967 on Spitsbergen was shot a year later in southwest Greenland, more than 2000 miles away”
Sea bears indeed!
They became “most at risk” because the alarmists saw a few minor declines in their numbers during a short period and used them to support their agendas. Now that these animals have proved to be more resilient than those alarmists realize, they’ve changed their tune and suddenly claim to have discovered any threats toward them weren’t that serious from the outset. It’s like climate change in general: never that serious over the long term.
NONE of them are “at risk.” The only “threat” polar bears ever faced was excessive hunting by humans. Once the put controls on that, they flourished.