The Week That Was: 2024-01-27 (January 27, 2024)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “’The exception proves that the rule is wrong.’ That is the principle of science. If there is an exception to any rule, and if it can be proved by observation, that rule is wrong.” – Richard Feynman, The Meaning of It All (1998)
Number of the Week: 6,000 meters (3.7 mi)
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: Topics to be discussed include Roy Spencer’s new paper on the failure of global climate models to accurately describe current temperatures. Howard Hayden suggests a major problem with the IPCC may stem from its (or the UNFCCC’s) definitions for climate change. Interviews with David Legates and Willie Soon are presented. Major economic problems stemming from expensive, unreliable electricity in Germany and the UK are briefly discussed. A reversal in US energy exports is presented.
*******************
Global Climate Model Failure: Roy Spencer prepared a report for the Heritage Foundation “Global Warming: Observations vs. Climate Models.” The Summary states:
“Warming of the global climate system over the past half-century has averaged 43 percent less than that produced by computerized climate models used to promote changes in energy policy. In the United States during summer, the observed warming is much weaker than that produced by all 36 climate models surveyed here. While the cause of this relatively benign warming could theoretically be entirely due to humanity’s production of carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel burning, this claim cannot be demonstrated through science. At least some of the measured warming could be natural. Contrary to media reports and environmental organizations’ press releases, global warming offers no justification for carbon-based regulation.”
The Key Takeaways are:
- “The observed rate of global warming over the past 50 years has been weaker than that predicted by almost all computerized climate models.
- Climate models that guide energy policy do not even conserve energy, a necessary condition for any physically based model of the climate system.
- Public policy should be based on climate observations—which are rather unremarkable—rather than climate models that exaggerate climate impacts.”
Spencer’s introduction explains a major problem with the global climate models used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and relied on by the 14 US government entities that signed off the US Fifth National Climate Assessment (2023) including the National Science Foundation (NSF), NOAA, NASA, Department of Energy (DOE), Department of Defense (DOD), and EPA. The introduction states [citations omitted]:
Average warming of the climate system over the past five decades has been widely attributed to greenhouse gas emissions—primarily carbon dioxide (CO2)—from the burning of fossil fuels. This belief has led to calls for greatly reducing humanity’s reliance on such fuels and a transition to ‘renewable’ energy sources such as wind power and solar energy.
For the purposes of guiding public policy and for adaptation to any climate change that occurs, it is necessary to understand the claims of global warming science as promoted by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). When it comes to increases in global average temperature since the 1970s, three questions are pertinent:
- Is recent warming of the climate system materially attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, as is usually claimed?
- Is the rate of observed warming close to what computer climate models—used to guide public policy—show?
- Has the observed rate of warming been sufficient to justify alarm and extensive regulation of CO2 emissions?
While the climate system has warmed somewhat over the past five decades, the popular perception of a ‘climate crisis’ and resulting calls for economically significant regulation of CO2 emissions is not supported by science.
What Causes Temperature Change?
Before addressing how much warming has been observed, it is useful to explain what causes the temperature of anything—the climate system, the human body, a pot of water on the stove, a car’s engine—to change. The underlying concepts are not difficult to grasp and are experienced by people on a daily basis.
Temperature Change Is Caused by an Imbalance Between Energy Gain and Energy Loss. One may picture an uncovered pot of water on a stove being heated over a very low flame. The water will warm rather rapidly when the stove is first turned on, then it will warm more slowly as the warm pot loses energy to its cooler surroundings. At some point, the water will stop warming altogether as the hot water loses energy to its surroundings just as fast as the flame puts energy into the pot. This state is called “energy balance” and it corresponds to a stable, constant temperature.
Or one may imagine wearing a coat outside in the winter. People wear coats to reduce the rate of energy loss by their bodies. If people did not wear coats, their bodies would lose energy faster than they could generate heat through metabolism, and people would go into hypothermia. The coat helps to maintain energy balance by reducing the rate of energy loss by people’s bodies.
As a final example, everyone has experienced how air temperature changes on a sunny day. The air warms through the morning and early afternoon. But by late afternoon, something curious happens: The temperature starts going down, even though the sun is still shining. This cooling happens because the rate of energy loss by the air becomes greater than the rate of energy gain from sunlight as the sun sinks lower in the sky.
In all of these examples, when energy gain equals energy loss, there is no temperature change. If there is an imbalance between rates of energy gain and energy loss, the temperature changes.
Recent Warming of the Climate System Corresponds to a Tiny Energy Imbalance
The average rate of energy gain by the global climate system from sunlight is variously estimated to be 235 to 245 Watts per square meter (W/m2), so, for purposes of discussion the assumption is 240 W/m2. For global temperatures to remain approximately constant over time, the rate of energy loss by the system to outer space, which occurs through infrared (IR) ‘heat’ radiation, must also be approximately 240 W/m2.
But just how well do climate researchers know these numbers, and what is the evidence that there is a natural balance between them? The best satellite measurements from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System’s (CERES’s) instruments are only accurate to a few W/m2 (about 1 percent of the average energy flows. To estimate the level of global energy imbalance, researchers use long-term measurements of the gradual warming of the global average oceans to estimate the energy imbalance. From the observed rates of warming of the deep ocean it is straightforward to compute that the current energy imbalance is only about 0.6 W/m2, which is a tiny fraction of the approximate 240 W/m2 natural energy flows. This imbalance is thus considerably smaller (by about a factor of four) than the accuracy with which one can measure global average rates of energy gain and loss in and out of the climate system using satellites. [Boldface added]
This is important because it means that some portion of recent warming could be natural. But since climate researchers do not understand natural sources of climate change, such as those that caused the Roman Warm Period of about 2,000 years ago, the Medieval Warm Period of about 1,000 years ago, and the Little Ice Age several centuries ago, most climate researchers simply assume that a similar event is not happening today. [Boldface added]
Instead of admitting that natural processes could be at work in causing climate change, ‘energy equilibrium’ is what is assumed by the mainstream climate research community for the natural state of climate system unaffected by humans. The members of this community assume that the rate of energy input into the climate system from the sun is, on average, exactly equal to the rate of energy loss to outer space from IR radiation when averaged globally and over many years. The current, small roughly 0.6 W/m2 imbalance in the approximate 240 W/m2 energy flows in and out of the climate system is then entirely blamed on the burning of fossil fuels. [Boldface added]
But this energy balance assumption for the Earth is a statement of faith, not science. As mentioned, a natural state of global energy balance cannot be demonstrated. Even using NASA’s best satellite measurements of energy flows through the climate system. [Boldface added]
Climate Models Assume Energy Balance, but Have Difficulty Achieving It
The projections of climate change in the news, and that form the basis of government efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, come from computerized climate models run by climate research centers in various countries.
These projections are similar to weather forecast models but have additional enhancements that are not needed in short-term weather forecasts. The models are adjusted to produce no long-term climate change. In other words, the models assume that all climate change is unnatural, and then are used as ‘proof’ of human-caused climate change when extra CO2 is added to them. Of course, this is circular reasoning. There are also numerous potentially natural, or non-CO2-related, reasons a climate may change. [Boldface added]
The large number of climate models produce global warming rates which vary by about a factor of three between them (1.8°C to 5.6°C) in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 (2 x CO2). In 2023, Earth’s atmosphere was about 50 percent of the way to 2 x CO2. Amazingly, this factor-of-three range of warming projections has not changed in the more than 30 years of climate-model improvements. This proves that climate-model forecasts are not, as is often claimed, based on proven physics. If they were, they would all produce about the same amount of warming. [Boldface added]
As described above, temperature change is the result of energy imbalance, and all climate models have been tuned to produce energy balance in the absence of human-produced CO2-equivalent emissions. Without such tuning adjustments (one might call them ‘fudge factors’ some of which are ad hoc), almost all models’ temperature would slowly drift over time—that is, become progressively warmer or cooler. Despite this tuning, many models have been found to still have problems conserving energy. Energy conservation (probably the most fundamental law in science, the First Law of Thermodynamics) should be a necessary requirement of any model used for energy policy decisions. The need for model tuning is unavoidable because the fundamental physical processes in the climate system (especially cloud characteristics) are not known accurately enough to build a stable model from physical first principles alone. So, empirical adjustments must be made to those modeled processes so that the model will not spuriously warm or cool over centuries of model run time. Yet, even at this, many models fail. [Boldface added]
The assumption that the climate system is in a natural state of energy balance also means that the models do not include any sources of long-term natural climate change. Again, this assumption is rather unavoidable since models can only include processes that climate researchers understand and can quantify, and that knowledge does not currently exist for natural sources of long-term climate change. While scientists often assume that long-term changes must come from some external forcing agent (such as increasing CO2 or a change in solar activity), the Earth’s climate is known to be a ‘nonlinear dynamical system,’ exhibiting chaotic fluctuations, such that long-term changes are possible without any external forcing. For example, small-scale turbulence in the oceans has been shown to be capable of producing substantial chaotic changes in ocean heat content, a result that invariably is blamed on humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions.
As a result of the assumptions inherent in climate models, any claims they ‘prove’ that warming is due to human activity are clearly disputable. There are no ‘fingerprints’ of human-caused warming; for example, warming caused by any process will be more rapid over land than over oceans.[Boldface added]
While it is true that, based on theory, increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere should cause some warming, absent any other mitigating effect from the presence of that CO2, just how much warming remains uncertain. It is entirely possible that much of the warming that has been observed (although over-predicted by the computer models) may indeed be due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. After all, greenhouse gasses, such as water vapor and CO2, absorb and emit IR radiation, which is all that is needed for there to be an atmospheric greenhouse effect (mostly due to water vapor) which keeps the Earth habitably warm and helps to sustain life. But just how much warming will result from humanity’s role in all this remains considerably more uncertain than is generally realized.
The Direct Warming from a Doubling of CO2 Is Only 1.2°C.
How much warming does global warming theory say should occur from human greenhouse gas emissions? The public has been led to believe that models are fairly accurate in this regard, but the data show different results. Global warming theory indicates that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would cause only 1.2°C of direct warming if there are no other changes in the climate system than temperature. It is those other, indirect changes (called feedbacks) built into these models that greatly amplify the rather benign 1.2°C of warming in almost all climate models. These feedbacks lead to the wide range of current model projections of 1.8°C to 5.6°C of warming in response to 2 x CO2. Current claims of a climate crisis are invariably the result of reliance on the models producing the most warming, not on actual observations of the climate system which reveal unremarkable changes over the past century or more.” [Boldface added]
Spencer then presents physical evidence (not model evidence) substantiating his assertions that the global climate models used by the IPCC and relied upon in the US NCA overstate the warming of the globe. He gives a graph showing:
“…the average of five different observation-based datasets (blue) are compared to the average of 36 climate models taking part in the sixth IPCC Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The models have produced, on average, 43 percent faster warming than has been observed from 1979 to 2022. This is the period of the most rapid increase in global temperatures and anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, and also corresponds to the period for which satellite observations exist. This discrepancy between models and observations is seldom mentioned despite that fact that it is, roughly speaking, the average of the models (or even the most extreme models) that is used to promote policy changes in the U.S. and abroad.” [Boldface added]
According to the US Global Change Research Program current website:
“In addition to an annual report to Congress and a Strategic Plan, the GCRA [Global Change Research Act] mandates that USGCRP prepare and submit to the President and the Congress a quadrennial assessment, referred to as the National Climate Assessment (NCA), which:
- Integrate[s], evaluate[s], and interpret[s] the findings of the Program and discuss[es] the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings.
- Analyze[s] the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity.
- Analyze[s] current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and project[s] major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years.”
In his report Spencer then demolishes the Fifth National Climate Assessment (2023) which was used to claim a climate emergency or crisis. He shows that climate models vastly overstate warming. He presents a graph of the observed 12-state U.S. Corn Belt Summer temperature trend for 1973-2022. The trend is considerably lower than that produced by all 36 climate models used to promote changes in U.S. energy policy. Many of the models used in the Fifth NCA produce a warming that is three to five times of that which is observed. Spencer writes that:
“The fact that global food production has increased faster than population growth in the past 60 years suggests that any negative impacts due to climate change have been small. In fact, ‘global greening’ has been documented to be occurring in response to more atmospheric CO2, which enhances both natural plant growth and agricultural productivity, leading to significant agricultural benefits.
These discrepancies between models and observations are never mentioned when climate researchers promote climate models for energy policy decision-making. Instead, they exploit exaggerated model forecasts of climate change to concoct exaggerated claims of a climate crisis.”
Spencer then presents a graph showing that the 38 global climate models greatly overstate the warming of the atmosphere, where the greenhouse effect occurs. He and John Christy update previous publications to 2022 comparing climate model performance with 3 Radiosonde Datasets, 3 Reanalysis Datasets and 3 Satellite Datasets. The nine different data sets using different instruments closely correspond with one another, and significantly diverge from the climate models. [Note that both the model count and years covered change.] Spencer concludes that:
“Climate models produce too much warming when compared to observations over the past fifty years or so, which is the period of most rapid warming and increases in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The discrepancy ranges from over 40 percent for global surface air temperature, about 50 percent for global lower atmospheric temperatures, and even a factor of two to three for the United States in the summertime. This discrepancy is never mentioned when those same models are used as the basis for policy decisions. [Boldface added]
Also not mentioned when discussing climate models is their reliance on the assumption that there are no natural sources of long-term climate change. The models must be ‘tuned’ to produce no climate change, and then a human influence is added in the form of a very small, roughly 1 percent change in the global energy balance. While the resulting model warming is claimed to prove that humans are responsible, clearly this is circular reasoning. It does not necessarily mean that the claim is wrong—only that it is based on faith in assumptions about the natural climate system that cannot be shown to be true from observations.
Finally, possible chaotic internal variations will always lead to uncertainty in both global warming projections and explanation of past changes. Given these uncertainties, policymakers should proceed cautiously and not allow themselves to be influenced by exaggerated claims based on demonstrably faulty climate models.”
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://www.globalchange.gov/our-work/national-climate-assessment for the US NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT.
*******************
What Went Wrong? Spencer brings out that the disparity between global climate model results and physical evidence (observations) is large and increasing. There seems to be no effort on the part of the UN IPCC to correct these misleading models. The question is why?
AMO physicist Howard Hayden may have an answer that may be unfortunate. In “The Energy Advocate” he has an essay giving distinct definitions of climate change used by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the IPCC. The essay is now posted on the SEPP website. Hayden writes [citation omitted]:
“The dinosaurs lived when the average global temperature was 6ºC to 10ºC warmer than it is now, so you might think that there has been some climate change since that time. According to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), you would be wrong. UNICEF explains why you are wrong by presenting the news that youngsters don’t know what the definition of climate change is:
Most children and young people say they have heard of climate change but only half understand what it is, according to a new UNICEF-Gallup poll, as world leaders gather at this year’s COP28.
The global poll found that on average, 85 per cent of young people aged 15-24 surveyed in 55 countries said they have heard of climate change, yet just 50 per cent of those chose the correct definition as per the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) when asked to select between ‘seasonal changes in weather that occur every year’ and ‘more extreme weather events and a rise in average world temperatures resulting from human activity’. [Boldface in original.]
They might well have asked, ‘Would you rather walk or take your lunch?’
You see, the UNFCCC has a very explicit definition of climate change that automatically implicates humans’.
‘Climate change’ means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. [Emphasis added.]
To make sure that everybody understands that humans are responsible for climate change, the UNFCCC’s ‘Science’ Introduction says:
The science on climate change is clear. There is no question that these abnormal changes result from global warming due to an increased greenhouse effect caused by the vast amounts of greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere by human activities. [Emphasis added.]
All that stuff that occurred in the half-billion years of the Phanerozoic Era before humans ruined the planet, as illustrated in Figure 3, is called climate variability by the UNFCCC; there was no climate change until very recently.” [Boldface in this paragraph is italics in original]
Figure 3, in the post, is a graph of temperature change for the past 500 million years based on the geological record. For the past 70 million years the graph is similar to the one presented by Tom Gallagher with the earth gradually cooling over the past 50 million years except for sharp, brief increases in temperatures during interglacial periods over the past 3 million years in current icehouse Earth.
It is very clear that the IPCC and the UN have no interest in natural climate change. It would be very difficult to hold UN officials accountable for their irresponsibility. However, the authors of the US NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT have the explicit responsibility to take natural climate change into account. They and the 14 government entities that signed off on the Fifth National Climate Assessment should be held accountable for their failure to address natural climate change. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
*******************
Other Interviews: In addition to Roy Spencer, the Heritage Foundation interviewed SEPP directors David Legates and Willie Soon in their climate series. David Legates described what we know about climate history and the similarities in climate change patterns today and those seen in the past. Willie Soon expresses his frustration with the IPCC and its failure to recognize variations in the Sun, which is the dominant driver of climate change in this solar system. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
*******************
Real Damage: Both the UK and Germany are experiencing real economic damage cause by accepting the false claims of the IPCC and implementing alternative forms of electricity generation, namely wind and solar.
Further, once respected institutions in the UK are being exposed for their misleading assurances that wind power can provide reliable, affordable electricity. These institutions did not consider adequate storage requirements during prolonged changes in wind patterns that have been known for decades such as shifts in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). See links under Changing Weather, Lowering Standards, Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda, and Questioning European Green.
*******************
Incomplete Data: Geophysical Research Letters published a study on greenhouse gas forcing that had two revealing findings. The study is based on “continuous, stable, global, hyperspectral infrared satellite measurements (2003–2021)” using Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on NASA’s Aqua Satellite. One important finding not emphasized is that it did not find a significant warming in the frequencies one would expect from an increase in water vapor, which has been used to amplify CO2 warming in all global climate models. Instead, it found an increase in outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) in the frequencies blocked by water vapor.
The second finding is that the research supports the IPCC models. It does not. IPCC models rely on a significant increase in water vapor. Further, the study shows a decrease in OLR from methane and nitrous oxide, implying they have a significant impact on temperatures. However, the detailed work of van Wijngaarden and Happer shows that water vapor, the dominant greenhouse gas, blocks the OLR in frequency ranges overlapping methane and nitrous oxide. Thus, the researchers may have confused what they observed. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer.
*******************
Amazing: The US shale oil and gas revolution resulted in Russia and OPEC nations trying to drive out independent competition from US oil fields. They failed. Further, in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, US independent gas producers dramatically expanded production. New export facilities have opened, making the US the world’s largest natural gas producer, slightly above Russia. Now, citing a false climate emergency, the Biden administration announced a temporary ban (pause) on new permits to export natural gas.
Although a great deal will be written subsequently, an editorial in the Wall Street Journal expressed the issue well. It began with:
“Americans received a preview of a second Biden term on Friday when the President halted permits for new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects. Climate politics has become the tail wagging this Administration’s economic, national security and foreign policy. President Biden isn’t running for re-election. Climate lobbyist Bill McKibben and his TikTok army are.
‘This pause on new LNG approvals sees the climate crisis for what it is: the existential threat of our time,’ Mr. Biden said. ‘We will heed the calls of young people and frontline communities who are using their voices to demand action from those with the power to act.’ Didn’t he campaign in 2020 by promising to be the adult in the room?
Now he’s letting TikTokers dictate U.S. policy. Press reports say Biden adviser John Podesta pushed for the ‘pause’—which tees up an outright ban—after TikTokers and Mr. McKibben made stopping LNG exports a cause celebre. Mr. Biden’s advisers at the White House even met with a TikTok climate ‘influencer.’ The Administration hopes its climate gesture will boost the President’s flagging political support among young people.
Who cares about the real-world impact, or the signal to allies and adversaries that the U.S. isn’t a reliable partner? Europe and Asia should plan to import their gas from Qatar, Russia or even Iran. Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin now know they can exploit the Administration’s climate obsession to undermine U.S. interests.
During the pause, the Energy Department will conduct an environmental and economic review of LNG exports. ‘Today, we have an evolving understanding of the market need for LNG, the long-term supply of LNG, and the perilous impacts of methane on our planet’ and ‘pollution from new export facilities,’ the White House statement says.
Mr. Biden’s views sure have evolved. As Vice President, he boasted about the benefits of U.S. LNG exports. ‘The United States is now a net [gas] exporter,’ he proclaimed at the 2016 CAF conference. ‘There are even greater opportunities to supply the energy needs of our partners in Latin America and around the world.’
He was right. Global demand for natural gas is expected to increase 46% by 2050 as countries industrialize and shift from coal. Most developing Asian economies still rely on coal for power, including India (71%), Indonesia (59%), Vietnam (57%) and the Philippines (55%). Global coal exports and power generation last year hit a record.
China was the biggest coal importer, followed by India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Demand for LNG has outstripped supply especially as Europe tries to wean itself from Russian gas. A Bangladesh energy official complained last year that Asian countries couldn’t buy gas because of skyrocketing prices. Instead, they burned coal. How will this be good for the climate?”
The article then asserts that Russia, Iran and Qatar will benefit, and that Germany accounted for a third or more of the contracted capacity of a large Gulf Coast LNG port. See Article # 1 and link under Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda.
*******************
Number of the Week: 6,000 meters (3.7 mi). Last week’s TWTW brought up the views of three geologists on the Geothermal Impacts on Climate. They expressed that geothermal activity may have intensified the Kuroshio Current and the Kuroshio Extension in the Pacific and the Gulf Stream via the Canary Current in the Atlantic. This week Jim Steele presents excellent maps of ocean currents showing this intensification. He attributes it to solar heating.
The Argo program began in 1998 an idea for a global array of autonomous floats to obtain temperature and salinity measurements of the upper 2,000 meters (1.2 miles) of the global ocean. This program is being extended by Deep Argo, which aims to sample temperature and salinity over the full ocean depth up to 6,000 meters (3.7 mi). The issue should be solved when the data comes in. See links under Commentary: Is the Sun Rising? and Measurement Issues – Energy Flow.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Hurricane Frequency and Sunspots
By Andy May, WUWT, Jan 25, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Does hurricane frequency vary inversely with sunspot activity?]
Peer-Reviewed Science On Twitter
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 25, 2024
https://realclimatescience.com/2024/01/peer-reviewed-science-on-twitter/#gsc.tab=0
See link immediately above.
NOAA’s Graph Provides Best Evidence That Solar Heating Is Warming the Oceans, Not CO2
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Jan 27, 2024
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Climate Science Gatekeeping
New Evidence Shows Michael Mann Seeking to Manipulate Peer Review
By Roger Pielke Jr. The Honest Broker, Jan 22, 2024
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/climate-science-gatekeeping
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Greenhouse Gas Forcing and Climate Feedback Signatures Identified in Hyperspectral Infrared Satellite Observations
By Shiv Priyam Raghuraman, et al. Geophysical Research Letters, Dec 13, 2024 [H/t Jeff Reynolds]
New Journal of Climate Study Reduces Doubled CO2 Climate Sensitivity By 40%, To 0.72°C
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Jan 22, 2024
Link to paper: The Global Patterns of Instantaneous CO2 Forcing at the Top of the Atmosphere and the Surface
By Yan-Ting Chen, et al, Journal of Climate, Sep 15, 2023
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/36/18/JCLI-D-22-0708.1.xml
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Global Warming: Observations vs. Climate Models
By Roy Spencer, The Heritage Foundation, Jan 24, 2024
https://www.heritage.org/environment/report/global-warming-observations-vs-climate-mo
Link to full report: https://www.heritage.org/environment/report/global-warming-observations-vs-climate-models
New Article on Climate Models vs. Observations
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jan 25, 204
[SEPP Comment: The data covered are 1973 to 2022. If 2023 is included, the change would be slight. Using near-surface air temperatures, the warmth of 2023 was not significantly greater than 2016.]
Climate Series Part 1: History of Climate Change
Audio: With David Legates By the Heritage Foundation, Jan 3, 2024
https://shows.acast.com/thedailysignal/episodes/tds010324int
Climate Series Part 2: History of Climate Change
Audio: With Willie Soon By the Heritage Foundation, Jan 4, 2024
Climate Series Part 3: History of Climate Change
Audio: With Roy Spencer By the Heritage Foundation, Jan 5, 2024
The Thumb on the Scale
By Howard Hayden, The Energy Advocate, January 2024
http://www.sepp.org/science_papers/The%20Thumb%20on%20the%20Scale.docx
Flying Falsehoods and the Value of Numbers
By Ivor Williams, WUWT, Jan 20, 2024
Global Tropical Cyclones
Data and figures that you won’t find on the climate beat
By Roger Pielke Jr., The Honest Broker, Jan 24, 2024
Global Historical Hurricane & Cyclone Statistics Establish that 2023 Experienced a Very “Normal Year.”
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Jan 21, 2024
Link to: Annual 2023 Global Climate Report
By Staff, National Centers for Environmental Information, retrieved Jan 25, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Hamlin takes apart the absurd claims in the NOAA report.]
New Study Concludes ‘CO2 Can Have No Measurable Effect On Ocean Temperatures’
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Jan 25, 2024
Link to paper: Time Dependent Climate Energy Transfer: The Forgotten Legacy of Joseph Fourier
By Roy Clark, Science of Climate Change, Dec 2, 2024
From the abstract: “Diurnal and seasonal phase shifts occur in both the ocean and land temperature records. These phase shifts provide important additional information about the time dependent energy transfer processes that determine the surface temperature. Unfortunately, starting with the work of Pouillet in 1836, this time dependence was neglected and replaced by an equilibrium average climate …This approach created CO2 induced global warming as a mathematical artifact in the simplistic equilibrium air column model used by Arrhenius in 1896. Physical reality was abandoned in favor of mathematical simplicity.” [Boldface added]
Great News! The Climate Is Much Better Than Predicted. Now We Can Calm Down!
By William M. Briggs, His Blog, Jan 25, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Briggs reviews Spencer’s latest paper.]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
New Climate Projections: NYC Will Keep Getting Hotter and Wetter
Sea levels could rise by more than a foot in the 2030s, when the city is also expected to be up to 10% rainier and as much as 4.7 degrees hotter. [Boldface added]
By Samantha Maldonald, The City, NYC, Jan 22, 2024
Link to 2021 report: State of Climate Knowledge, 2021
By Adam Parris, et al., City of New York, Mayor’s Office of Climate & Environmental Justice, 2021
“The estimates are part of a forthcoming paper from the NPCC Climate Science Working Group … As opposed to a plan or a study, this report – the State of Climate Knowledge 2021 – is a living climate research agenda. Building public participation in future versions of this agenda will help MOR broker innovation to address the climate crisis (Figure 5). A publicly driven climate research agenda is not just what climate research NYC needs; it is the climate research that NYC deserves.” [Boldface added]
Government Department Head: “Is climate change too hard for democracy?”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 22, 2023
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Climate driven “Noble Cause Corruption” goes way back
By Ed Hoskins, His Bog, Accessed Jan 24, 2024
How the Lefts Global Warming Ideology Wrecked Science – and How to Stop it (Part 2)
By Jeff Reynolds, Restoration News, Jan 22, 2024
Surfing The Sixth Wave
By Willis Eschenbach, Jan 23, 2024
Link to previous paper: Historical bird and terrestrial mammal extinction rates and causes
By Craig Loehle, Willis Eschenbach, Diversity and Distributions, Oct 13, 2011
Unpacking Climate Lies
By I & I Editorial Board, Jan 23, 2024
Split the International Energy Agency Into Two To Avoid Shocks
By Mark Mills, Real Clear Politics, Jan 20, 2024
So about that polar vortex
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 24, 2024
Energy and Environmental Review: January 22, 2024
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, Jan 22, 2024
Seeking a Common Ground
The Number Of Named Storms Should Not Be Used As Climate Index–Met Office
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 26, 2024
[SEPP Comment: From 2022 Met Office report: “’…because the criteria for naming storms have changed since the scheme was first introduced in autumn 2015.’”
Models v. Observations
A Test of Skill for Climate Models
By Richard Willoughby, WUWT, Jan 22, 2024
“The predictive capability of climate models at regional level is far worse than forecasting that any month of next year will be the same as the corresponding month this year. In fact the measured temperature at any location for any month forty years ago is a better predictor at regional temperature now than any climate model.
The common difference for all models relative to measured temperature, with the SH running hot and the NH running cold, indicates a systemic error in understanding the natural driver of climate change. The models are incapable of producing any regional cooling trend so the observed regional cooling trends in the SH invalidate the models.”
Models Wrong Again: “Hotter Weather Not Diminishing Runoff, River Discharge”!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 21, 2024
Link to paper: Synergy between satellite observations of soil moisture and water storage anomalies for runoff estimation
By Stefania Camici, et al., Geoscientific Model Development, Sep 15, 2023
“’Results are somewhat in contrast to climate projections’.”
#ECS in the real world: Lewis and Curry 2018
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 24, 2024
“’The implications of our results are that high best estimates of [ECS] derived from a majority of CMIP5 climate models are inconsistent with observed warming during the historical period (confidence level 95%).’”
Measurement Issues — Surface
Anti UHI Adjustments
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 25, 204
Brizlee Wood Opened In 2021
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 23, 2024
“No wonder we had not heard of 99 mph winds in Northumberland before!”
Storm Isha–Don’t Be Fooled By 99 MPH Claims
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 23, 2024
“That 99 mph comes from Brizlee Wood:
In reality however, Brizlee is not a wood at all, it is an RAF radar station on top of a 250m hilltop above Alnwick Moor.”
See link immediately above.
Measurement Issues – Energy Flow
Argo Program
An Array of Profiling Floats Observing the Ocean in Real-Time
By Staff, Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory, Accessed Jan 25, 2024
Changing Weather
Water Resources Looks Good Over the Western U.S.
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Jan 26, 2024
[SEPP Comment: The “permanent western drought” was not so permanent?]
CCC Wind Power Plans Ignore The NAO
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 26, 2024
“What [climate pioneer H.H.] Lamb records is closely related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This measures the difference in pressure between Icelandic lows and Azores highs. When the difference is greater than normal, it is called a positive NAO.”
“The NOAO in winter has been largely in positive phase since 1980, but the 1960s and 70s were dominated by negative NAOs. This obviously coincides with Lamb’s charts:
Negative NAOs in winter tend to lead to cold weather as well, so we have a double whammy here- less wind and greater demand. Add in a summer like 1975 and 1976, and we will be in big trouble.”
NEW! 2023 Data: Pacific Typhoon Activity Has Calmed Considerably Over Past 7 Decades!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 26, 20244
Low Carbon Floods In 1951
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 24, 2024
“But the enormity of the devastation from the Yangtze floods in 1951 [1931] is difficult to comprehend – one million lost their homes, 100,000 lost their lives.”
Hurricane Review For 2023
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 25, 2024
“I have used the term ‘hurricane’ throughout, although they can also be termed ‘Tropical Cyclone’.
In some basins, they are also referred to as typhoons and cyclones.”
Evidence Global Warming will Increase Rainfall in Australia?
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 26, 2024
El Nino is Dying and the Northwest Will Get Drenched
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Jan 24, 2024
One hundred and one years of Netherlands windstorms
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 24, 2024
From the CO2Science Archive:
Record Breaking 1931
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 25, 2024
January 1951–Snow, Heavy Rain, Storms & Floods
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 21, 2024
1951 – Britain’s Year of Flooding
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 21, 2024
It Was Just Winter Weather In 1950!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 20, 2024
“So January 1950 had everything! Temperatures as high as 61F and a low as 7F, rain, gales and plenty of snow.”
Changing Seas
Maine Sea Level Panic
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Jan 22, 2023
“And sadly, the hype runs deep in the study of the sea level. For example, in my post Munging The Sea Level Data, I demonstrated that the claims of modern acceleration in sea level rise come entirely from a totally invalid splicing of two sets of satellite-measured sea levels.”
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
How Bogus Arctic Warming Attribution Enabled the Climate Crisis Scam
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Jan 21, 2024
“Thus, claims by alarmists attributing rising CO2 to any loss of Arctic sea ice and so-called ‘Arctic amplification’ is not supported by the evidence.”
Arctic Grows a Month of Ice in 3 Weeks January 2024
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Jan 23, 2024
The end of glacier melting as we know it
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 24, 2024
Link to paper: Local cooling and drying induced by Himalayan glaciers under global warming
By Franco Salerno, et al, Nature Geoscience, Dec 4, 2023
“You may recall the IPCC’s fiasco over their exaggerated claims about Himalayan glaciers disappearing by 2035 due to global warming. It was such a foul-up that they had to release one of their rare Corrections (rare not because they are rarely needed but because they can so rarely be shamed into issuing one.) In other winter news from the wacky world of climate change, a new paper in Nature explains that Himalayan glaciers are shrinking not due to warming of the ice cap but to cooling. But never fear, that’s also due to due to warming. It would be.”
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Leading British Physician Says Going NetZero Would Probably Lead To 6 Billion Starving
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 24, 2024
Video
Lowering Standards
Four major national institutions have made erroneous estimates of the cost of Net Zero
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Jan 24, 2024
Revelation That U.K. Climate Target is Based on One Windy Year’s Data Threatens to Unravel Net Zero Credibility
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 24, 2024
otalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2024/01/24/revelation-that-u-k-climate-target-is-based-on-one-windy-years-data-threatens-to-unravel-net-zero-credibility/
Climate chiefs admitted net zero plan based on insufficient data, leading physicist says
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 20, 2024
“’ Sir Chris Llewellyn Smith, who led a recent Royal Society study on future energy supply, said that the Climate Change Committee only ‘looked at a single year’ of data showing the number of windy days in a year when it made pronouncements on the extent to which the UK could rely on wind and solar farms to meet net zero.’”
A remarkable coincidence
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Jan 24, 2024
The CCC Must Pay The Penalty For False Advice
By George Lawson, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 23, 2024
[SEPP Comment: According to its website, the UK “Climate Change Committee (CCC) is an independent, statutory body established under the Climate Change Act 2008. Our purpose is to advise the UK and devolved governments on emissions targets and to report to Parliament on progress made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for and adapting to the impacts of climate change.”] https://www.theccc.org.uk/about/
How The Met Office Used To Report Gales
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 22, 2024
NOAA’s Year 2023 “Selected Significant Climate Anomalies and Events” Diagram Misrepresents both Anomalies and Events
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Jan 25, 2024
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Climate Change Weekly #494: Associated Press Takes More Money to Promote Climate Alarm
By H. Sterling Burnett, Environment & Climate News, Jan 26 2024
Claim: Financially Distressed Canadians Should Prioritise Climate Change
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 20, 2024
EVs the best, say people paid to say such things
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 24, 2024
“In an exceptionally brazen piece of state-funded journal activism, Canada’s CBC, in the middle of bitter cold that threatened to cast doubt on the federal government’s plan to make us all drive EVs whether we want to or not, wrote a ‘news’ story that ‘Electric cars ‘the best vehicle’ in frigid temperatures, Sask. advocates say’. And when reporters on the government payroll relay the words of activists who just happen to support government policy, who could object? Well, us.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Passing 1.5C Global Warming is Now an “Opportunity”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 24, 2024
Oh snap!
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 24, 2024
“’In fact, the record temperatures we saw in recent weeks would ‘most likely’ have been even colder without climate change.’”
“How do you know? Because it’s getting warmer. And how do you know it’s getting warmer? Because the cold snap would have been snappier otherwise.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Met Office Lie About “More Intense Storms”
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 22, 2024
“It is time that the Met Office’s climate change work was defunded, and the organization returned to its proud tradition as a Meteorological Office.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
The Winter of Our Discontent
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Jan 23, 2024
“A recent Rasmussen Poll reveals a fascinating, albeit concerning, trend: while the majority of Americans report this winter being no worse than usual, a significant portion still believe climate change is exacerbating extreme weather. This finding, coupled with the shifting attitudes toward electric vehicles, paints a complex picture of public opinion and media influence.”
Will 2024 be hotter than 2023?
By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, Jan 24, 2024
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Our Best Climate Realism Communicators
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Jan 23, 2024
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
The Times covers up for the Green blob
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Jan 26, 2024
“The facts are not in dispute.
1. The CCC’s 2019 report, which put us on the road to Net Zero, examined a single year of wind data
2. A 2023 CCC report examined five isolated years.
3. Examining isolated years underestimates costs because of the extra storage needed to guard against back-to-back wind drought years, and that was the basis of the Royal Society’s criticism.”
Warm Is Cold and Down Is Up 2024
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Jan 22, 2024
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Rain is Caused by Carbon
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Jan 23, 2024
“Ms. Neumeister was one of 39 elementary school teachers from across the city who participated in a four-day training session in the summer called ‘Integrating Climate Education in N.Y.C. Public Schools.’ Its goal was to make the teachers familiar with the topic, so they can work climate change into their lesson plans.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
White House official cites young, climate-focused voters as key Biden constituency after LNG announcement
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Jan 26, 2024
“White House climate adviser Ali Zaidi outlined the scientific rationale behind the Biden administration’s pause on some liquefied natural gas (LNG) export approvals, but he acknowledged young and climate-focused voters as a key constituency when asked whether they influenced the decision to implement the pause.” [Boldface added]
[SEPP Comment: The scientific rationale is omitted!]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 24, 2024
“The WEF creates an online Global Collaboration Village, apparently unaware that Marshall McLuhan thought the ‘global village’ was a place inhospitable to rational thought.”
Markers Along The Road To The Death Of Net Zero
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Jan 20, 2024
“But perhaps, instead of a sudden crash, the demise of the green energy illusion will look more like a slow but steady decline, a gradual withering of economic activity and prosperity. In this scenario, high energy prices brought about by energy restrictions drive important industries out of business and, as good jobs disappear and energy prices increase, the people gradually and inexorably get poorer. Recent events in the UK and Germany seem to point in the direction of this type of scenario.”
“’ Chemical giant BASF has been a pillar of German business for more than 150 years, underpinning the country’s industrial rise with a steady stream of innovation that helped make “Made in Germany” the envy of the world. But its latest moonshot — a $10 billion investment in a state-of-the-art complex the company claims will be the gold standard for sustainable production — isn’t going up in Germany. Instead, it’s being erected 9,000 kilometers away in China. . . . [BASF] is scaling back in Germany.’”
“Politico notes that in the 15 years since the 2008/09 recession, the U.S. economy has grown by some 76%, while the German economy has grown by only 19%. Oh, that is the same period of Germany’s ‘Energiewende,’ which has included forcing electricity prices to go to triple the U.S. level.”
What a backflip: The Biggest political party in the EU now wants to drop the ban on petrol and diesel cars
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 23, 2024
Are Labour sleepwalking to energy disaster?
By Capell Aris, Net Zero Watch, Jan 23, 2024
Germany Went All In On The Green Transition. Now, Its Economy Is Crumbling
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, Jan 21, 2024
Electric cars and heat pumps seem destined to make us freeze
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 20, 2024
School Closes Six Times In Three Months Because Of Net Zero Agenda
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 21, 2024
“’ A primary school has been forced to close six times in just three months because its brand new £358,000 heat pump system keeps failing.’”
Danish Heat Pump Sales Plummet
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 22, 2024
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Green dreams are made of these
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 24, 2024
“But she [Canadian Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland] did emerge to burble that ‘Canada is absolutely determined that decarbonization for us, will mean more jobs, more growth, more manufacturing and we recognize, government needs to play a role to make that happen.’ It’s one of those propositions driven entirely by conviction rather than evidence. She probably even believes it, meaning, once again, it’s not a conspiracy, it’s a plan, hidden in plain sight, to impose green socialism on a sluggish but ultimately presumably grateful populace.”
“But he [Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault] and Freeland are not engaged in studying what actually happens, looking for practical difficulties and finding proven ways to get around them or mitigate them. Their thinking is on a very different level.
It involves deliberately experiencing trance-like visions of new kinds of technology working far better than they currently do, and moving on to the transformative effects they might have on an economy if both they and the government worked far better than they currently do.”
Most clean power purchasing strategies do little to cut emissions, study finds
By Colton Poore, TechXplore, Jan 23, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: System-level impacts of voluntary carbon-free electricity procurement strategies
By Qingyu Xu, et al., Joule, Jan 11, 2024
Green Jobs
Net Zero Jobs? British Government Offers £500 Million Green Funding for 2500 Job Losses
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 21, 2024
Non-Green Jobs
Ross Clark & The Madness of the Port Talbot fiasco
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 20, 2024
“Ross Clark’s point about pig iron is highly relevant. Without any blast furnace, Port Talbot will have to buy pig iron, almost certainly from China or India.
There is also a secondary issue. I strongly suspect that Tata’s plans involve cutting production significantly, as they will no longer be able to make high quality steel just using scrap. If I am right, many of those 2800 job losses will be in the rolling and finishing mills, rather than just in the blast furnaces and coke ovens.” [Boldface added]
[SEPP Comment: Electric arc furnaces cannot produce pig iron from iron ore (high in iron oxides) that is then processed into steel, an alloy. Electric arc furnaces recycle scrap steel]
Funding Issues
New Aussie Retirement Fund Rules to Allow Risky Green Tech Investments
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 24, 2024
“Australian Superannuation (retirement) funds have convinced the government to allow them more freedom to ‘invest’ in risky green tech startups.”
The Political Games Continue
White House slaps $1 trillion price tag on climate record
By Timothy Cama, E & E News, Greenwire, Jan 22, 2024
“Vice President Kamala Harris is going big in her efforts to sell the administration’s climate change and environmental agenda, with a $1 trillion price tag.
In a series of recent appearances, Harris has used the figure to boast about her and President Joe Biden’s accomplishments, usually without going into the math that got her there.
It’s not the $2 trillion climate and social spending plan Biden promised in his 2020 campaign for office, which fell prey to legislative realties like a closely divided Senate.”
[SEPP Comment: Since FY 2021, the federal debt has grown from $28.43 trillion to
$33.99 trillion in January 2024.]
Comments requested on draft law to promote offshore wind
By David Wojick, CFACT, Jan 21, 2024
Link to press release: [Senator] Whitehouse Releases Discussion Draft of Bill to Improve Offshore Wind Development Process
By Staff, January 9, 2024
“Comments from interested stakeholders are requested by February 9 and should be sent to Senator Whitehouse’s staff at collaborateact@whitehouse.senate.gov.”
Litigation Issues
Storm Uri: The Supreme Court’s Decision (Part 3)
By Bill Peacock, Master Resource, Jan 26, 2024
“’The lack of investment in reliable and dispatchable sources of generation in ERCOT has already led to a decline in the reliability of the grid…. Further declines in generation from dispatchable sources will further increase prices for Texas consumers—on top of whatever price hikes the PUC [Texas Public Utility Commission] may have planned for them.’”
Links to previous parts given.
Inside the Left’s Spurious Legal Strategy To Take Down Oil and Gas Producers
By Meghan Blonder, Washington Free Beacon, Jan 22, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Tribes sue Biden administration over permits for high-voltage transmission line
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Jan 24, 2024
Originality Befitting an Ivy League President
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Jan 23, 2024
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Angry Motorists Want Road Charging. (Or Not!)
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 26, 2024
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Manchin blasts Biden guidance on EV charger tax credit: ‘Spits in the face of rural America’
By Rachen Frazin, The Hill, Jan 24, 2024
EPA and other Regulators on the March
9 species in 33 states may soon be on endangered list: US wildlife officials
By Alix Martichouk, The Hill, Jan 27, 2024
Energy Issues – Non-US
New study warns of soaring energy bills
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Jan 26, 2024
Link to report: Costing the Green Grid: Current and future technology
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, 2024
Link to earlier report: Large-scale electricity storage
By Staff, The Royal Society, September 2023
Five Energy Sector Predictions for 2024
By Robert Rapier, Oil Price.com, Jan 25, 2024
Britain Imported £3.5 Billion Of Electricity Last Year
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 20, 2024
Heat Becomes Unaffordable In Germany… Seniors Struggle, Staying Warm At Public Heating Places…
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 23, 2024
Energy Issues – Australia
Electricity prices fall from ridiculous peak but it’s not due to renewables and it’s still not cheap
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 26, 2024
“If our whole electricity grid was 100% brown coal, electricity would be half the price.”
Energy Issues — US
The Key Idea for Thinking About Energy
By Steven Hayward, PowerLine, Jan 24, 2024
Video: “Cost, scale, and density are the three main points of any good energy analysis (I call these the “Energy Triumvirate”) and is what I drill students about from the first day of class to the last day of class.”
[SEPP Comment: Video emphasizes reliable, affordable, and scalable. Power Density is critical. Compromise is always necessary for achievable sources of generation.]
Washington’s Control of Energy
FAULKENDER And MCPHERSON-SMITH: It’s Time To Take A Buzzsaw To Biden’s Beloved Climate Law
By Michael Faulkender and Oliver McPherson-Smith, Daily Caller, Jan 19, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
“And yet, American energy production has only recently recovered to pre-pandemic levels. The culprit, of course, is the president’s trillion-dollar chief legislative accomplishment – the cynically-titled Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Instead of deterring Russia and Iran, apparatchiks in the Biden administration use the IRA’s subsidies and tax credits to deter reliable, affordable energy investment, thereby compounding our security woes.”
White House Promoting Russian/Iranian Natural Gas Sales
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 26, 2024
Environmental Laws That Impeded Pipelines For Years Could Trip Up Biden’s Sprint Toward Offshore Wind
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, Jan 22, 2024
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Compressed for Time
In a pinch, virtually everything could be run on natural gas.
By Staff, Doomberg, Jan 24, 2024
Return of King Coal?
Energy: At Least We Have Some Coal Left
By David Archibald, WUWT, Jan 24, 2024
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Visualizing All The Nuclear Waste In The World
By Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, Jan 26, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Hinkley C and the rising cost of net zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 24, 2024
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
One way to keep warm this winter
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 24, 2024
“’One of the first lessons any new engineering student learns in their materials class is ‘cold brittle behaviour’ of materials. When it gets really cold, like -30 C or colder, many materials lose much of their strength and are prone to shattering.’”
“Wind power cannot get you through the prolonged ‘cold snap’ known as winter in Canada. Nor can solar, including if snow gets on the panels, not to mention hail. And if you try, you kill people.”
Offshore Wind Stumbles
Developers face unexpected obstacles.
By Jonathan A. Lesser, City Journal, Jan 23, 2024
Offshore Wind and the Stress on Commercial Fishermen
By Craig Rucker, Real Clear Energy, Jan 25, 2024
Blue State Doubles Down On Offshore Wind After 2023’s Massive Failure
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, Jan 25, 2024
Wind & Solar Generators Couldn’t Care Less When You’re Freezing In The Dark
By Staff, Stop These Things, Jan 20, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Germany’s dream of building a fleet of hydrogen-fired power plants is faltering
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 26, 2024
National Audit Office Questions Drax’s Greenwashing
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 26, 2024
“The Drax plant in Selby, North Yorkshire, receives subsidies to help generate 6pc of Britain’s electricity, which it achieves by burning 7m tonnes of wood a year.
Drax has claimed that the wood is sourced sustainably, although the National Audit Office (NAO) has sought to question this: ‘The Government cannot demonstrate that its current arrangements are adequate to give it confidence that industry is meeting sustainability standards.’”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Does the Climate Change Committee understand the energy storage problem?
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Jan 25, 2024
How Much Wind Power Would We Need For Backup Storage?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 23, 2024
“’ Returning to my post on this story the other day, you will recall that the Royal Society reckons we will need 100 TWh of storage in 2050, to cover for variations in wind and solar power.
Obviously, this rules out any significant contribution from batteries and there are only so many pumped storage systems we can build. So, unless we go hell for leather and build lots of nuclear plants, that leaves just hydrogen as a possible solution.’”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Third Electric Bus Fire In London This Month
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 26, 2024
Electric cars cost twice as much to insure as petrol and diesel vehicles
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 26, 2024
EVs May Cost More Over Lifetime Than Gas Powered Counterparts: Study
A new study shows that many electric vehicles cost more to operate than their gasoline powered counterparts.
By Tom Ozimek, The Epoch Times, Jan 17, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Electric and gasoline vehicle total cost of ownership across US cities
By Maxwell Woody, et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology, Jan 3, 2024
Moves By Ford and Hertz Prove EVs Are Still the ‘Next Big Thing’
By Robert Bryce, Real Clear Energy, Jan 25, 2024
“In 1901, the Los Angeles Times declared, ‘The electric automobile will quickly and easily take precedence over all other.’” [Boldface added]
Electric bikes start record number of fires in New York
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 22, 2024
“’ According to figures released by the New York Fire Department to Fox News, e-bikes – powered by lithium-ion batteries – were responsible for 267 fires in the city.’”
Carbon Schemes
Carbon Capture Is a Bipartisan Climate Win
By Collin C. Peterson, Real Clear Energy, Jan 23, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Other than using CO2 for oil recovery, where is there successful, affordable carbon dioxide capture?]
California Dreaming
Newsom declares state of emergency for parts of Southern California amid record rainfall
By Sharon Udansin, the Hill, Jan 23, 2024
“This made Monday the fourth wettest day in 174 years of records, behind only Oct. 4, 1923; April 5, 1926; and Dec. 2, 1854, per the NWS.”
[SEPP Comment: What happened to “it never rains in Southern California?”]
Health, Energy, and Climate
Pediatrics For Dummies: AAP Parrots Anti-Glyphosate Propaganda
By Cameron English, ACSH, Jan 16, 2024
Link to report: Use of Genetically Modified Organism (GMO)-Containing Food Products in Children
By Steven A. Abrams, MD, FAAP, et al., (including a member of Council on Environmental Health and Climate Change), American Academy of Pediatrics, Dec 11, 2023
“The AAP has been among the most vocal medical associations complaining about America’s increasing skepticism of science, warning in 2019 ‘that the US healthcare system is entering into a crisis of trust.’ The Academy has ginned up all sorts of strategies to reverse that trend. But apparently, no one at AAP has considered an important possibility: its ideological stances on everything from gun violence and climate change to transgender medicine and agriculture are fueling the public’s distrust.”
Oh Mann!
Men at War, Rand Simberg Must Win (Part 3)
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Jan 27, 2024
Links to previous posts on the Mann litigation are given.
Environmental Industry
EV Proponents in Hiding? David Cooke (Union of Concerned Scientists) Declines AEI
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Jan 23, 2024
Other Scientific News
One of the longest jet streams in memory
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Jan 22, 2024
“Yesterday I saw the current map of winds at 300 hPa (about 30,000 ft) for the entire Northern Hemisphere and was taken aback: the longest continuous jet stream I can remember.
As shown by the map valid 1 PM Sunday, strong westerly winds exceeding 100 knots stretch from Iran to Baja, California. Halfway around the entire Northern Hemisphere. About 8000 miles.”
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Claim: Climate Change is Responsible for a “Pothole Plague” – but Robots could Help
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 25, 2024
Cattle Egrets Fleeing From Climate Change, Say Guardian!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 20, 2024
“In conclusion: There is no evidence whatsoever to ascribe the title ‘climate refugees’ to cattle egrets. They are clearly highly adaptable birds that have taken advantage of niche habitats and food sources created by mankind and have spread around the globe accordingly.”
Fifty Years Into The Ice Age
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 26, 2024
ARTICLES
1. Biden and the TikTok Anti-LNG Crusade
His ‘pause’ on export permits may be his most destructive climate act—damaging to the economy at home and U.S. influence abroad.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Jan. 26, 2024
TWTW Summary: The key part is discussed in the This Week Section above
In addition to energy balance, models being used to push the human race in some preferred direction should also be shown to meet the requirements of material balance (all non-transmutable components), for water and dry air at least, and entropy balance. A model that cannot balance entropy is not credible because the entropy balance also involves material and heat flows, but independently from energy and mass balance.
“If you wound up with a different President who was opposed to climate crisis, I got news for you. No one politician anywhere in the world can undo what is happening now…The only issue for all of us is not whether or not we can get or will get to a low carbon, no carbon economy globally. We will. The only question is, will we get there in time to meet the challenge of the scientists in order to avoid the worst consequences of this crisis. That is what is at stake.”
-John Kerry, ‘Special Presidential Envoy for Climate’
That sounds sophisticated but it’s actually rather stupid- just in terms of “good writing” according to my very tough high school English teacher. By comparison, if Trump talks about the climate, it may seem.. uh… not sophisticated- but it would actually make more sense.
Nice image of the Grant Canyon. Been there several times- to the bottom.
I think that it is AI generated. Look at the clouds.
French Farmer Protest
An other video
A third one
Impressive ! 😀
Funny, they are paying 1500 police to ride herd on the protesters.
That is going to cost a lot, but power hungry politicians are willing to spend a lot of OPM to control the riffraff who produce the food they eat.
Power to ones head, see Trudope.
That is not entirely true. It doesn’t take the specific heat capacity of materials into account. Generally speaking, transfer of energy by conduction can only take place from something at a higher temperature to something with a lower temperature. Even with radiation, the net transfer of energy will be from the high temperature object to the low temperature object. Water is often the net receiver because it takes so much more energy to warm a unit mass of water than most other things, particularly air. However, the transfer of heat energy from air to water is complicated by evaporation of the water. The bottom line is that temperature alone is not a sufficient measure of energy content for different materials. That means, one could have an energy imbalance with no temperature change.
A problem with this UNFCCC claim is that the annual anthropogenic CO2 flux “… amount to ≈4.1 PPM (8.8 Pg * 1 PPM/2.13 Pg) out of a total of 101 PPM, or 4.1% of all sources”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/03/22/anthropogenic-co2-and-the-expected-results-from-eliminating-it/