by Javier Vinos
This post features a chapter from my new book Solving the Climate Puzzle: The Sun’s Surprising Role. The book provides a large body of evidence supporting that changes in the poleward transport of heat are one of the main ways in which the planet’s climate changes naturally. It also shows that changes in solar activity affect this transport, restoring the Sun as a major cause of global warming. Since climate models do not properly represent heat transport and the IPCC reports completely neglect this process, this new hypothesis will not be easily dismissed. I am sure that over time it will lead to a better understanding of how the climate changes naturally, and hopefully less climate hysteria.
Here is the text of Chapter 17 of my new book
- The Ocean’s heat transport is largely wind driven
The ocean is the primary source of poleward heat transport in the tropics, with the tropical Pacific being the dominant player due to its size. It exports heat to the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, which are the only ones to transport heat across the equator. However, inter-basin exchanges are relatively small, indicating that global seawater pathways play a minor role in heat transport. The Atlantic is unique in having an exclusively northward net heat transport due to its meridional overturning circulation, which accounts for about 60% of the heat transported in the North Atlantic. Oceanic heat transport from the North Atlantic to the Nordic Seas and the Arctic increased significantly between 1998 and 2002, during a period of Arctic and global climate shift.
Most of the heat transported by the global ocean is carried by water above 10°C (50 °F), located between 40°N and 40°S at depths of less than 500 m. This transport is primarily due to wind-driven circulation. Even the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is as sensitive to winds as it is to the formation of high-latitude deep water.
Analysis of the critical tropical upper-layer heat budget has revealed a remarkable 11-year variability associated with the solar cycle that is ten times larger than can be accounted for by changes in solar radiation. In addition, model studies of the Atlantic meridional circulation show that solar forcing is its most important natural determinant. These studies underscore the critical role of the Sun in modulating ocean heat transport by inducing changes in atmospheric circulation.
Ocean heat transport
The ocean plays a critical role in the Earth’s climate system, providing thermal stability and storing a large fraction of the system’s energy. With a total mass 265 times that of the atmosphere and a heat capacity 1000 times greater, the ocean stores 96% of the energy in the climate system and receives 75% of the energy delivered by the Sun to the planet’s surface. This essential feature of the ocean has allowed the existence of complex life. However, because the Earth is currently in an ice age that began 34 million years ago (the Late Cenozoic Ice Age), the ocean has reached a cold state with an average temperature of about 4°C (39 °F), and only the upper mixed layer is substantially warmer due to solar heating and wind-induced turbulence. The sea surface temperature of the open ocean is limited to 30°C (86 °F) because deep convection occurs above 27°C (80 °F), increasing evaporation and forming clouds that effectively cool the surface. Although the upper 2.5 m of the ocean contains as much heat as the entire atmosphere, its main function in climate change is to absorb heat as the planet warms and release it as it cools, providing thermal inertia.
The ocean contributes about 25% of global poleward heat transport (ch. 10). In the tropics, the ocean is the most important heat transporter. Its contribution is even greater in the Northern Hemisphere, where it accounts for about 30% of heat transport. However, the Atlantic Ocean has a unique heat transport pattern. The South Atlantic has a net heat transport towards the equator (fig. 25).
Figure 25. Ocean heat transport. Mean meridional ocean heat transport (in petawatts) for the global ocean (solid black), Atlantic (dashed red), and Indo-Pacific (dotted blue).[1]
Most of the ocean’s heat is transported by water with a temperature above 10°C (50 °F), mainly in the band of the ocean between 40°S and 40°N and above a depth of 500 m. This is the main reason why meridional ocean heat transport is more important at these latitudes, where the Hadley cell is not very effective in transporting heat poleward (ch. 13).
Global ocean heat transport is dominated by heat export from the tropical Pacific, which has the largest tropical surface area and receives the most solar energy. However, it’s striking how much the tropical Pacific dominates heat export to other oceans, exporting four times more heat than is imported into the Atlantic and Arctic oceans. The Atlantic and Indian Oceans transport heat north and south across the equator, respectively, but the Pacific provides this heat through the Drake Passage and the Indonesian Throughflow. While there is some exchange between the basins, it’s relatively small, suggesting that global seawater pathways play a minor role in the Earth’s heat budget.[2]
Poleward heat transport to the Arctic
The Atlantic Ocean has northward heat transport in both hemispheres and across the equator due to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This circulation is part of the thermohaline circulation, which involves the northward flow of warmer, lighter water in the upper layers of the Atlantic and the southward flow of cooler, denser water at depth. Although the two branches are mechanically driven, they are linked by the transformation of warm to cold water masses at high latitudes (ch. 10).
The uniqueness of Atlantic heat transport is highlighted in figure 25 and is related to the asymmetry of the latitudinal temperature gradient between the two hemispheres. Each year, the Southern Hemisphere receives more solar energy than the Northern Hemisphere. This is due to the Earth’s current axial precession, which causes the Southern Hemisphere to be oriented toward the Sun when the Earth is closer to it. Albedo does not correct for this difference due to its interhemispheric symmetry (box 2, ch. 3). Despite receiving a greater annual influx of solar energy, the Southern Hemisphere is about 2°C cooler than the Northern Hemisphere, and the Earth maintains a steeper temperature gradient toward the colder Antarctic than toward the warmer Arctic (ch. 9, fig. 13). Transport theory states that more heat should flow toward the colder pole since temperature differences drive transport. However, the Atlantic transports more heat from the Southern to the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting that energy transport is not solely determined by entropy production. Rather, it is strongly influenced by geographic and climatic factors and thus may be a forcing mechanism for climate change.
The exceptional nature of the Atlantic Ocean’s heat transport has important implications for the climate of the surrounding regions of the North Atlantic, the Arctic, and the global climate. Sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic exhibits a multidecadal oscillation that correlates with global temperature (ch. 19).[3] Analysis of the Atlantic heat flux over time shows a clear relationship between oceanic heat transport and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (fig. 26). This evidence supports the notion that the oscillation in North Atlantic sea surface temperature is a result of changes in meridional heat transport. Surprisingly, despite this evidence, ocean oscillations are rarely considered in terms of heat transport.
Figure 26. Atlantic heat transport and North Atlantic sea surface temperature. a) Atlantic integrated meridional heat transport over time in petawatts from reanalysis. b) North Atlantic sea surface temperature record for the same period.[4]
The transport of Atlantic water to the Arctic occurs through the Nordic Seas, and the volume and temperature of the transported water strongly influence the climate of northern Europe and the Arctic. The transformation of warm to cold water masses necessary for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation occurs in the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean. Although oceanic heat transport is a small part of the Arctic heat budget (ch. 11 & 16), its analysis can be very informative. A recent study of ocean heat transport in the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean found a sudden increase in transport. From the 1993-98 average to the 2002-2016 average, oceanic heat transport in this important climate region, the “bellwether” for climate change, increased by 25 terawatts (9%) between 1998 and 2002 (fig. 27).[5]
Figure 27. The Arctic Shift in ocean transport. Ocean heat transport to the Arctic and Nordic Seas during 1993-2017 shows an abrupt change during the Arctic Shift.
I refer to the period of rapid climate change in the Arctic that coincided with the change in oceanic transport as the Arctic Shift. As we will see, atmospheric heat transport to the Arctic also increased during the Arctic Shift, not showing the compensation between atmospheric and oceanic heat transport that the models predicted (box 8, ch. 12). It accelerated climate change in the Arctic, a clear demonstration of how changes in transport lead to profound climate changes that are erroneously attributed to anthropogenic forcing. The Arctic Shift was only one of the most conspicuous parts of the most significant global climate shift in 40 years. This issue is discussed in detail in chapter 33.
Wind-driven and thermohaline circulations
Ocean circulation can be divided into two types: fast circulation driven by wind stress, organized into ocean gyres, and slower circulation, related to changes in water density caused by changes in temperature and salinity (thermohaline). These two types of circulation are not independent, as the wind also affects the thermohaline circulation. It is important to note that the term thermohaline circulation, which refers to mass, heat, and salt circulation, can be misleading because heat and salt circulations are different.[6] In the Atlantic, wind-driven and thermohaline circulations contribute to poleward transport, but wind-driven gyres carry most of the heat in other oceans.
Despite its importance for understanding the climate system, our knowledge of the vertical structure of ocean heat transport is poor. This issue is fundamental to the debate over whether abyssal mixing, high-latitude deep-water formation, or winds control oceanic heat transport. This debate has led to unwarranted concerns that the Atlantic overturning circulation could be disrupted, causing significant cooling in Europe. Previous investigations of the vertical structure of oceanic heat transport, taking into account the temperature difference at the ocean-atmosphere boundary, have revealed our misunderstanding of this crucial process.[7] Such analyses show that surface circulation, which is highly sensitive to wind stress, dominates the total oceanic heat transport, while abyssal mixing has virtually no effect. High-latitude deep water formation contributes 60% of the North Atlantic heat transport, but the meridional circulation transport is also proportional to wind stress, being as sensitive to winds as to high-latitude convection.
The results of these studies challenge the common understanding of ocean heat transport as presented in books and illustrated by colorful ribbon diagrams. It is clear that winds play a critical role in ocean heat transport and that the amount of heat transported by the oceans is linearly proportional to the magnitude of wind stress. These findings lead to three controversial and far-reaching conclusions about climate change:
- Atmospheric circulation is primarily responsible for heat transport on a global scale, either directly or through its influence on oceanic transport.
- Atmospheric and oceanic heat transport cannot compensate for each other. Since they are fundamentally linked by wind action, any change in one must be accompanied by a change in the other in the same direction. Consequently, changes in the amount of heat transported poleward are not only possible but inevitable.
- Variability in global heat transport must occur on the decadal timescales typical of atmospheric and upper ocean variability, rather than the centennial or longer timescales characteristic of deep meridional overturning.
BOX 14. RESPONSE OF OCEAN HEAT TRANSPORT TO SOLAR VARIABILITY
Ocean heat transport occurs primarily in shallow tropical waters, so the heat budget of the upper layer is critical to global ocean transport. Studies of the variability of sea surface temperature and pressure have identified typical quasi-biennial and El Niño-Southern Oscillation frequencies, as well as an 11-year frequency. Although this 11-year variability is synchronous with the solar cycle, its magnitude cannot be explained by direct radiative forcing from the Sun at the surface.[8] In the global tropical ocean, the temperature in the upper layer varies by ±0.1°C in phase with the solar cycle, requiring a change of ±0.9 W/m2, while the change in surface radiative forcing from the solar cycle is an order of magnitude too small, ±0.1 W/m2. Therefore, the variability must be due to ocean-atmosphere mechanisms despite its synchronization with the Sun.
The effect of El Niño on ocean heat transport is characterized by the warming of the upper layer of the global tropical ocean, which then warms the overlying atmosphere. In contrast, variability associated with the solar cycle leads to the warming of the global tropical atmosphere, which then heats the underlying ocean. This process is accomplished primarily by reducing the net sensible + latent heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere, as the increase in solar radiation in the ocean is insufficient. Evidence indicates that the effect of the solar cycle on the ocean is indirect, occurring through the atmosphere. Claims that the Sun cannot be responsible for climate change because of the small change in total solar irradiance that produces its variability ignore the abundant evidence that solar variations act indirectly by affecting atmospheric circulation.
Models agree that solar variability has a significant impact on ocean heat transport. The fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre shows that solar forcing is the most important natural factor determining the multidecadal response of the Atlantic meridional circulation.[9] Solar forcing is associated with long-lasting anomalies in the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic caused by changes in the stratosphere due to weaker solar irradiance during the late 19th and early 20th centuries. The model does not fully capture the atmospheric response to solar variability, but it does show notable changes in the location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, precipitation in the Amazon, and temperatures in Europe.
In summary
The ocean plays a critical role in transporting heat poleward within the tropics. Wind-driven circulation in the ocean gyres is responsible for most of the heat transport, and a global conveyor has a limited contribution. However, the Atlantic Ocean is an exception, exhibiting net northward heat transport with relevant transequatorial transport, mainly due to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which is sensitive to both wind stress and deep water formation at high latitudes.
The atmosphere, directly through its circulation and indirectly through the effect of wind stress on oceanic transport, is primarily responsible for most of the poleward heat transport. The multidecadal oscillation of sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic results from changes in poleward heat transport. In addition, the upper layer of the tropical ocean shows temperature changes in phase with the solar cycle caused by changes in the atmospheric circulation that affect the heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere.
Book availability
A 50-page excerpt from the Solving the Climate Puzzle: The Surprising Role of the Sun is available on my ResearchGate page: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/375120132
The English edition of the book is available on Amazon and Google Books, and will soon be available elsewhere through the IngramSpark distribution network. The paperback edition has black and white figures. The Spanish edition should be available later this month, and the German, French, and Italian editions shortly thereafter, with other language editions to follow.
I’d like to thank our gracious host, Judith Curry for her appreciation and support of the book prior to its publication.
[1] Yang, H., et al., 2015. Clim. Dyn. 44, pp.2751–2768. doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2380-5
[2] Forget, G. & Ferreira, D., 2019. Nat. Geosci. 12 (5), pp.351–354. doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0333-7
[3] Chylek, P., et al., 2014. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41 (5), pp.1689–1697. doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059274
[4] Top plot from Macdonald, A.M. & Baringer, M.O., 2013. Internat. Geophys. Vol. 103, pp. 759–785. doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-391851-2.00029-5. Bottom graph, NOAA data.
[5] Tsubouchi, T., et al., 2021. Nat. Clim. Change, 11 (1), pp.21–26. doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00941-3. Source of data for fig. 27.
[6] Wunsch, C., 2002. Science, 298 (5596), pp.1179–1181. doi.org/10.1126/science.1079329
[7] Boccaletti, G., et al., 2005. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 (10) L10603. doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022474 Ferrari, R. & Ferreira, D., 2011. Ocean Model. 38 (3–4), pp.171–186. doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2011.02.013
[8] White, W.B., et al., 2003. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 108 (C8) 3248. doi.org/10.1029/2002JC001396
[9] Menary, M.B. & Scaife, A.A., 2014. Clim. Dyn. 42, pp.1347–1362. doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-2028-x
Imagine that, the sun.
googled “diameter of sun”
yuh, let’s just ignore it
Let’s be reasonable here. If the sun had anything to do with temperatures then it would generally get colder at night and during the winter.
The sun’s role is not surprising…Ol’ Sol is almost the sole reason for the earth’s warmth…..erect a barrier between earth and sun and you get snowball earth.
It is surprising.
What’s about UV radiation ?
In comparison much larger than TSI.
There is much more to the Sun’s role in climate than just TSI. Why TSI receives all the focus is beyond me. Also, the composition in TSI matters. The variation in SW radiation is far greater than the variation in the TSI measure. SW matters most for ocean heat content.
We even have 2 TSI values, and only one is in the focus.
How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate
TSI 1AU and TSI true earth which vary much more
UV radiation is 1% of TSI and it changes by 3% with the solar cycle. If it wasn’t for the ozone layer we would not detect the change in solar activity on climate variables. The ozone layer is the only part of the climate system hugely affected by the changes in solar energy. The rest of the climate system responds to dynamic changes deriving from this.
You know the TCI values presented at spaceweather.com and how affected the thermosphere is ?
The thermosphere is not a part of the climate system. Nothing above the stratosphere is known to affect surface climate in any way.
Sure ?
Gravity waves, heard, read about ?
Role Of the Sun and the Middle atmosphere/thermosphere/ionosphere In Climate (ROSMIC): a retrospective and prospective view
While knowledge of the energy inputs from the Sun (as it is the primary energy source) is important for understanding the solar-terrestrial system, of equal importance is the manner in which the terrestrial part of the system organizes itself in a quasi-equilibrium state to accommodate and re-emit this energy. The ROSMIC project (2014–2018 inclusive) was the component of SCOSTEP’s Variability of the Sun and Its Terrestrial Impact (VarSITI) program which supported research into the terrestrial component of this system. The four themes supported under ROSMIC are solar influence on climate, coupling by dynamics, trends in the mesosphere lower thermosphere, and trends and solar influence in the thermosphere. Over the course of the VarSITI program, scientific advances were made in all four themes. This included improvements in understanding (1) the transport of photochemically produced species from the thermosphere into the lower atmosphere; (2) the manner in which waves produced in the lower atmosphere propagate upward and influence the winds, dynamical variability, and transport of constituents in the mesosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere; (3) the character of the long-term trends in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere; and (4) the trends and structural changes taking place in the thermosphere
More than 99.9% of the energy still comes from the Sun in the form of electromagnetic radiation. You would have to demonstrate how something that is in the other less than 0.01% affects climate. There are plenty of hypotheses but little supporting evidence.
New paper finds solar UV varies up to 100% during solar cycles, confirms solar amplification mechanism
The Sun is the primary source of energy to the Earth’s atmosphere, so it is essential to understand the influence that solar flux variations may have on the climate system. This can be studied by investigating the effect of 11 yr solar flux variations on the atmosphere. Although total solar irradiance (TSI) shows only a small variation ( 0.1% per solar cycle), significant (up to 100 %) variations are observed in the ultraviolet (UV) region of the solar spectrum. In a “top-down” mechanism, these UV changes are thought to modify middle atmospheric (lower mesospheric and stratospheric) O3 [ozone] production, thereby indirectly altering background temperatures (for a review see Gray et al., 2010). These temperature changes can then modulate upward propagating planetary waves, and amplify the solar signal in stratospheric O3 and temperatures. The temperature changes will also affect the rates of chemical reactions which control ozone. This mechanism has been well accepted.
You also need to consider the penetration of difference wavelengths of UV into the ocean.
It is not just the UV variability that matters, but also the variability of the frequencies within the UV spectrum.
The absorption coefficient is smallest just on the edge of the UV range in pure water…
12306127-absorbance-of-uv-radiation-in-liquid-water-from-nanobubbles.jpg (268×451) (prlog.org)
Seawater alters that somewhat, as shown in the chart below, with peak penetration being around 350nm
(note, 1st graph is in cm^-1, second is in m^-1)
Solar UV-fluctuations underestimated
The UV radiation is considered the part of the solar radiation that is most relevant for climate studies. Instead of almost 30 percent, as previously thought, the UV radiation contributes around 60 percent to the overall variability of solar irradiance. Unlike other approaches, the MPS-researchers determine the solar irradiance on the basis of magnetic processes on the Sun itself: they evaluate the ever-changing number and brightness of bright and dark areas on the solar surface.
[…]
Overall, the intensity fluctuations of solar radiation are small. In long-term average they amount to only the fraction of a percent of the total irradiance. The ultraviolet radiation, however, shows greater fluctuations and is also regarded as particularly climate-effective. Since the Earth’s atmosphere absorbs this radiation to a large extent, it influences critical chemical reactions in the upper layers of the atmosphere. Indirectly, these processes can also affect the temperature at the Earth’s surface.
You are talking about high-energy UV (EUV), the part that changes the most. But it doesn’t reach the ozone layer, it is absorbed in the upper atmosphere. Below 200 nm it varies by 10-100%, but it is very little energy and absorbed by that thermosphere you showed.
The Problem with TSI
Very interesting read
Nice link, KG ! 🙂
The problem here is that the sun is not a perfect blackbody radiator, different temperatures can be used to fit different portions of the extraterrestrial solar spectral irradiance.
I don’t believe this is as large an effect as the author asserts. Scattering is nonexistent above 100km, any absorption will be molecular.
And, solar spectral irradiance measurements are very difficult to perform in orbit.
So for us morons in a hurry, is it correct to say that while a relatively invariant sun drives the whole system, the variability of the system itself, i.e. the Earth’s climate, arises from such things as the asymmetry of its land masses and orbital mechanics?
Also, I’ve seen references in the past to Bond events and CGR products in ice cores. Are these spurious in your opinion?
Variability in the climate system comes from many sources some external and some internal. It is a complex problem. But it appears that orbital mechanics and solar variability are the main sources of climate variability for temporal scales above a few decades.
Bond events are cold events of a mixed origin. Most of them are solar-induced, but others have a different cause. I talked a lot about it in my previous book.
https://www.amazon.com/Climate-Past-Present-Future-scientific-ebook/dp/B0BCF5BLQ5/
GCRs don’t appear to have much effect on climate. I found what it looks like the Vela supernova imprint in the 14C record and has no associated effect on climate proxies.
Thank you.
It’s not all that surprising if one accounts for temporal variability of average percent cloud coverage (atmospheric albedo) and nature-induced changes in the albedo of Earth’s land masses.
or cancer when all that poison falls to he earth
Climate Puzzle: The Sun’s NOT Surprising Role
Fixed it. 🙂
“…. the IPCC reports completely neglect this process ….”
Really? How does it justify that?
It is surprising that solar activity changes do have a climate effect and it is surprising how they have that effect.
Some people are easily surprised….others?….not so much.
Sarc ? 😀
No. From chapter 29:
“In the global tropical ocean, the temperature in the upper layer varies by ±0.1°C in phase with the solar cycle, requiring a change of ±0.9 W/m2, while the change in surface radiative forcing from the solar cycle is an order of magnitude too small, ±0.1 W/m2. Therefore, the variability must be due to ocean-atmosphere mechanisms despite its synchronization with the Sun.”
The problem with radiative forcing is there is no allowance made within it for absorbed solar energy storage/release by the ocean.
I have posted the following image set from my 2022 AGU and Sun-Climate Symposium posters many times on this and Dr. Curry’s blog in the last year and a half that shows the average response of the eastern Pacific tropics between solar minima and maxima over the last nine solar cycles, an asymmetric ±1°C, and it was the basis of the work I presented at this year’s meeting regarding predicting the climate response of this solar cycle, which I was able to do successfully:
Therefore Javier started off here with the wrong premise because real average ±1°C changes are 10X greater than his fake puny ±0.1°C changes.
Therefore Javier’s statement about radiative forcing being equal to his claimed solar cycle forcing (±0.1°C) is wrong, as both of those concepts are fundamentally wrong.
Therefore his conclusion that the tropical variability is due to ocean-air mechanisms is also wrong.
Therefore, Javier has no idea what the sun’s role is.
So, are you making the case that ocean temperatures are definitely linked to solar activity, but that the mechanism for how this happens is strictly unknown then?
Bob Weber:
You fault graph (a) for having no allowance within it for absorbed solar energy storage/release by the ocean.
This is as it should be, since it is such a minor factor.
However, there is a MAJOR error in its listing of radiative forcings.
Our atmosphere is suffused with millions of tons of industrial SO2 aerosols, which have been declining since 1980, due to global clean air efforts (and now also to Net Zero activities). These aerosols (H2SO4 droplets) are reflective, and cool the earth by reflecting away a portion of the incoming solar radiation (NASA conclusions).
These aerosols are shown only as negative forcings, but when their quantities are reduced, a positive forcing occurs. This is actually what the green curve shows, since it can be proven that CO2 has no climatic effect!
except it is not surprising at all to anyone with the least amount of common sense
story tip
Fortescue dumps vast WA wind, solar farm project
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/fortescue-dumps-vast-wa-wind-solar-farm-project-20231105-p5ehna
I wonder what affect that will have on my FMG shares ! ?
Oh, I thought the sun had been successfully marginalized in models and climate science–not cancelled but certainly marginalized.
The Sun? We don’t need no stinking sun.
Javier, this is a great WUWT article and I wish you great success with your new book.
As regards your statement in the above article under Ocean heat transport :
“With a total mass 265 times that of the atmosphere and a heat capacity 1000 times greater, the ocean stores 96% of the energy in the climate system and receives 75% of the energy delivered by the Sun to the planet’s surface.”
in reality, assuming the same average percentage cloud coverage over both oceans and land masses, I do believe the oceans receive an even greater percentage of solar energy than implied by just the ocean-land area ratio.
Earth has a highly variable visible-spectrum albedo (averaging about 0.30 over a year or more, but variable from 0.06 for open ocean water to about 0.1 over dry land with no cloud coverage to about 0.9 over land covered by ice and snow). The lower albedo of the oceans means greater absorption of incoming solar energy per unit area as compared to barren, vegetated or snow-ice covered land.
Also, albedo differences coupled with the fact that Earth’s NH has much more land surface area compared to water surface area (a ratio of 0.39:0.61) compared to the SH ratio of 0.19:0.81 are significant factors accounting for the SH receiving significantly more solar energy than the NH.
And there is this additional, rather important, fact to consider:
“Generally, increased cloud cover correlates to a higher albedo and a lower absorption of solar energy. Cloud albedo strongly influences the Earth’s energy budget, accounting for approximately half of Earth’s albedo.”
— https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_albedo
So cloud coverage variability could be as important as solar irradiance variability in terms of driving ocean current circulation via wind-driven air mass circulation. AFAIK, we have no measurements or paleoclimatology proxies for establishing Earth’s global average percentage of cloud cover at times prior to the satellite era.
I suspect you are fully aware of each of this facts, but I’m taking the opportunity to add in my $0.02 so as to not overlook the importance of surface albedo and cloud coverage as additional drivers in the polar transport of heat on Earth. 🙂
Thank you!
Cloud coverage variability is very important. In fact, clouds manage to make the albedo of both hemispheres about the same which is extraordinary as they are so different in terms of continental land and ice/snow-covered surface. Both hemispheres reflect the same 29% of solar energy, when they shouldn’t, thanks to cloud variability. They even seem to compensate for the change in albedo due to Arctic sea ice loss over the past decades. Obviously, models can’t do it and they don’t properly reproduce the changes in albedo. This is a serious flaw as albedo is critical for the planet’s energetics.
“In fact, clouds manage to make the albedo of both hemispheres about the same which is extraordinary as they are so different in terms of continental land and ice/snow-covered surface. Both hemispheres reflect the same 29% of solar energy, when they shouldn’t, thanks to cloud variability.”
Thanks, I didn’t know that. You learn something new every day at WUWT.
Have you given any thought of what percentage deep ocean vents play to ocean temperatures and circulation?
“Hydrothermal circulation at mid-ocean ridges is responsible for ~25% of Earth’s heat flux and controls the thermal and chemical evolution of young oceanic crust.“
Seismic evidence that black smoker heat flux is influenced by localized magma replenishment and associated increases in crustal permeability – Arnoux – 2017 – Geophysical Research Letters – Wiley Online Library
The geothermal heat flux from radiogenic decay and primordial heat is estimated at 47 TW versus 173,000 TW from the Sun. It is 0.03% of the energy input, so unlikely to have a detectable effect on climate.
Abyssal circulation is very slow. Geothermal heat flux might lead to water mixing effects as it is certain to affect buoyancy. Other than that I can’t imagine, but I must recognize I haven’t studied the issue much.
Interesting, not too far off of TSI’s cyclic fluctuations. I doubt that figure takes into to account ocean floor vents, there is very little known about the volumetrics of these features, but they perturb ocean temperatures along plate boundaries along the ocean floor, and their distribution and density on a global scale is far from known.
The reason why the Atlantic has a net northward heat flow and why the Southern Hemisphere is on average cooler than the Northern Hemisphere is easy to figure out. There a bloody great continent in the way for heat going southwards. With the Antarctic Circle almost completely filled with Antarctica the only way the area inside the circle gets heat is from air convection year round and sunlight half the year. But with most of the continent permanently covered in snow and ice, a lot of the solar energy gets reflected so less heat is kept from it.
The Arctic Circle has a lot of water, and no land at and around the pole. Thus it benefits from water convection in addition to solar energy and air convection.
What I’d like to see Javier Vinos address is the effect of the migration of the Arctic and Antarctic Circles. What are their theorized maximum and minimum latitudes? (Theorized since nobody took notes the last time Earth’s axis was at minimum or maximum tilt.) How much surface area lies between those extents? What effect does the current poleward trend of the circles have?
Some years ago I read something about the season southern storms moving closer to the shores of Antarctica. My thought was “It’s obviously because the Antarctic Circle is moving closer to the shores of Antarctica.”. With only the Antarctic Peninsula and a few other bits and bobs outside the Antarctic Circle, with clear ocean all the way around, interrupted only by the peninsula, the biannual shift between light and dark on the continent results in temperature flows that drive the storms.
Will the Antarctic Circle move south far enough to put most of the Antarctica coastline outside the circle? How will that affect the weather there when the coastline gets some sunlight every day of the year? What will it do to the winter icepack around the continent when nearly all of it near the coast gets some sunlight every day VS the current situation where most of it has a solid six months of darkness?
All this business with the location and movements of the Arctic and Antarctic Circles is a building block in the foundation of how the Earth’s climate works *but people who write these books and articles* keep ignoring it.
Ummm . . . have you considered underground/under ice geothermal sources of heat? There have been quite a few articles on WUWT and elsewhere on this subject.
Here, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Antarctica :
“Volcanoes that occur underneath glacial ice sheets are known by the term “Glaciovolcanism”, or subglacial volcanoes. An article published in 2017 claims that researchers from Edinburgh University recently discovered 91 new volcanoes below the Antarctic ice sheet, adding to the 47 volcanoes that were already known. As of today, there have been 138 possible volcanoes identified in West Antarctica. There is limited knowledge about West Antarctic Volcanoes due to the presence of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which heavily covers the West Antarctic Rift System—a likely hub for volcanic activity. Researchers find it difficult to properly identify volcanic activity due to the comprehensive ice covering.
“East Antarctica is significantly larger than West Antarctica, and similarly remains widely unexplored in terms of its volcanic potential. While there are some indications that there is volcanic activity under the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, there is not a significant amount of present information on the subject.”
You mean the Sun, that ~900,000 mi diameter star located ~93 million miles away, without which the surface of the Earth would completely frozen and most of our atmosphere too, has something to do with how our climate behaves? Who would’ve guessed!
Okay, it’s a Monday and I’m feeling a bit sarcastic…
Story tip
Antarctic COOLING ?
New Study Finds Most Of Antarctica Has Cooled By Over 1°C Since 1999…W. Antarctica Cooled 1.8°C (notrickszone.com)
In Figure 25, it would have been useful to separate poleward or equatorward heat transfer in the Indian Ocean from that in the Pacific Ocean, instead of lumping them together as “Indo-Pacific”.
The reason for this is that the Indian Ocean is bounded to the north by land masses at less than 25 degrees North latitude, while it extends southward to about 67 degrees South latitude over most of its east-west width. The Indian Ocean is heavily skewed toward the Southern Hemisphere.
The Pacific Ocean, the world’s largest ocean, extends from about 70 degrees South latitude to about 60 degrees North latitude, with only a narrow outlet to the Arctic through the Bering Strait, which is reflected in the decline in poleward heat transfer above about 45 degrees North.
Figure 25 seems to show that Antarctica loses heat in equatorward transfer in the Atlantic from about 70 degrees West to 20 degrees East longitude, but gains heat from the “Indo-Pacific”. But does most of this heat come from the Indian Ocean (30 to 115 degrees East) or from the Pacific (160 degrees East to 75 degrees West)?
For the Arctic Ocean, the widest water gap is between Greenland and Scandinavia, about 40 degrees of longitude wide, so that should be the area of maximum heat transfer.
There also seems to be some kind of positive feedback loop where a 0.1 W/m2 change in solar radiation results in 0.9 W/m2 heating in the North Atlantic.
Methinks said “positive feedback loop” only exists mathematically in flawed climate models and has never been physically measured/documented.
I could insert something here about the Law of Conservation of Energy (here expressed as conservation of power flux), but need I?
This is one of those “well, DUH!” things that the warmunists refuse to acknowledge.
All heat energy of the planet Earth is sources from either the sun (most of it) or internal physical and geochemical process like vulcanism, plate techtonics, and various minor contributions from chemical and biochemical processes.
The oceans – covering 70% of the planet’s surface and, as the author points out, contains most of the latent heat energy stored within the mass of the planet’s surface, mostly sourced from the sun.
The warmies keep claiming that atmospheric warming, i.e., “global warming” or “climate change”, is what controls the oceanic energy content. That is akin to claiming that the flea on the tail of the dog is wagging the dog.
They have it totally bass ackwards – the oceans store and release heat energy to the atmosphere, with any net heat transfer from atmosphere to oceans being utterly negligible. That is how and why actual experts in weather and climate, i.e., meterorologists and the professionals who depend upon accurate weather information like pilots, farmers, and mariners talk about “air masses”.
As in, a maritime air mass takes on the characteristics of the underlying maritime surface, as in humidity and temperature, which along with other factors, like coriolis effect, determine what those air masses do. Ditto with continental air masses, which also take on the characteristics of the underlying land surface, generally much dryer than marine air masses, and having a much wider variations, both diurnally and seasonally, than the much more stable maritime air masses.
Air masses traveling over the African Sahara are quite dry and very warm, while air masses originating in cold continental areas like Canada are quite cold as well as dry.
Hmmmm . . . strange then that clouds in the atmosphere are found to significantly moderate surface temperatures (on land and on oceans) during both day and night. That is, atmospheric clouds by dint of their albedo reduce net solar radiation received at Earth’s surface, AND by dint of their high water vapor/liquid water microdroplets reduce Earth’s surface radiation to deep space and increase the atmosphere’s overall downward radiation of energy.
Before it got archived or hidden NASA used to say:
“The Sun is the primary forcing of Earth’s climate system. Sunlight warms our world. Sunlight drives atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. Sunlight powers the process of photosynthesis that plants need to grow. Sunlight causes convection which carries warmth and water vapor up into the sky where clouds form and bring rain. In short, the Sun drives almost every aspect of our world’s climate system and makes possible life as we know it.”
You can get a copy of the old (2010) website page from here:
https://www.climatecatastrophefund.com/
There is a screenshot of the NASA webpage at the bottom of that link.
The other thing that should not be forgotten about…
Gravity… another major influence on energy movement in the atmosphere.
Without it, there would be no atmosphere.. and no life.
A very good article Javier – do the same mechanisms (more or less) apply throughout a full glacial cycle? If they do then how do they cause the influences we see on a much grander scale than the previous 150 years or more as covered in your book?
Yes rocdoc, The beauty of this hypothesis is that it is general in scope. I deal a little with past climates in the book. Tectonics configuration rules the climate on the scale of millions of years by determining the transport of heat to the poles. I explain the Oligocene changes, which is a period no affirmationist would like you to know about because CO2 levels plunged while the world warmed toward the Mid-Miocene Optimum.
I also explain how the tiny Milankovitch obliquity forcing, acting mainly at high latitudes, is capable of constructing or melting huge ice sheets on the surface. It does so by modifying the summer temperature gradient and so directing more heat and moisture to the poles to enter a glacial period or less to exit it.
Heat transport long-term variability is the main way the planet changes its temperature, and solar variations just happen to affect this process.
Javier, I am confused by your differing statements that solar cycle variability is 0.1% yet also 0.1 W/m^2. 0.1% of 1360 is 1.36 W/m^2. OK, we have to divide by 4 to get mean surface receipt under cloudless skies, but that is still 0.34 W/m^2, >0.1.
For the surface calculation, you have to take into account albedo and atmospheric absorption. This calculation has been done many times since 1990. In Wigley & Raper 1990, you have the calculation for the top of the atmosphere including albedo. It is behind a paywall, but you can see the calculation on the first page.
https://www.deepdyve.com/lp/wiley/climatic-change-due-to-solar-irradiance-changes-F7r12S0qE7
Also one of the references provided in chapter 17 above, shows the value of 0.1 W/m2 attributing it to Lean 1995. She is an authority on the matter.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2002JC001396
You can read her articles or ask her for more specifics. I don’t doubt the value of 0.1 W/m2 as it is not a difficult thing to calculate. If it is 0.17 it is the same to me. After all this value changes from solar cycle to solar cycle. An approximate value is good enough.
OK, thanks.
What about a decrease in the solar magnetic field during a grand solar minimum causing an increase in cosmic rays reaching the Earth?
An increase in cosmic ray intensity would increase the ionization rate in the atmosphere and could increase the cloud formation rate; less solar radiation would reach the Earth’s surface, resulting in global cooling.
Is that you, Henrik Svensmark?
There’s not much evidence in favor of that, and some evidence against it. Nevertheless, it cannot be discounted at this time. More research is needed for alternative hypotheses to the CO2 one, as it is clear that not even 0.1% of research effort is dedicated to them.
He who controls the resources controls the outcome.
“Story tip”
This was published recently. The Sun is smaller than we thought.
Takata, M. and Gough, D.O., 2023. The acoustic size of the Sun. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, p.stad3206.
It has very important implications. Although the difference is small, if true, it means our solar model is wrong.
I am rather puzzled by most of this. Not by the notion that the Sun drives the climate, that is obvious to anyone except climate scientists. But do I understand that I can boil an egg by burning a blow torch above the pan because the atmospheric warming will heat the underlaying water?