The Week That Was: 2023-11-04 (November 4, 2023)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “All other aspects and characteristics of science can be understood directly when we understand that observation is the ultimate and final judge of the truth of an idea.” — Richard Feynman, The Meaning of It All
Number of the Week: 5 to 7 times the electricity now used.
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: The issues discussed include the abnormally high temperatures for September and October reported by the Earth System Science Center, University of Alabama, Huntsville. Forecasts of temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere from geographer Stuart A. Harris based on the deep-sea sediments and the Milankovitch Cycles. The CO2 Learning Center, which produces books, videos, and lesson plans for school age children on the importance of water vapor and carbon dioxide for life on Earth. And an essay by Holman Jenkins on the importance of recognizing the difference between global warming and the cause of global warming.
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Abnormally High: John Christy and Roy Spencer of the Earth System Science Center, University of Alabama, Huntsville reported abnormally high atmospheric temperatures in October, with an even greater abnormally than in September. They write:
“Global Temperature Report: October 2023
Global climate trend since Dec. 1, 1978: +0.14 C per decade [see note at end]
October Temperatures (preliminary)
Global composite temp: +0.93 C (+1.67°F) above the seasonal average
Northern Hemisphere: +1.02 C (+1.84°F) above seasonal average
Southern Hemisphere: +0.83 C (+1.49°F) above seasonal average
Tropics: +1.00 C (+1.80°F) above seasonal average
September Temperatures (final)
Global composite temp: +0.90 C (+1.62°F) above the seasonal average
Northern Hemisphere: +0.94 C (+1.69°F) above seasonal average
Southern Hemisphere: +0.86 C (+1.55°F) above seasonal average
Tropics: +0.93 C (+1.67°F) above seasonal average
Notes on data released November 2, 2023 (v6.0, with 1991-2020 reference base)
[Please note that we provide these data out of our own initiative and are only able to produce these updates at times convenient to our working schedules.]
The global atmospheric temperature anomaly increased slightly in October from the record value observed in September to +0.93°C (+1.67°F) above the 30-year average, setting a new anomaly record for the 45-year satellite era. This marks three months in a row that the previous monthly temperature record was superseded as the current El Niño came on in force earlier than is typical, warming up the atmosphere in these mid-year (and already warm) months. Though the tropics this month were warmer than any other October, the early-year months of Jan-Apr still hold the records for the largest departures from average in this equatorial belt. Besides the global record for departure from average, this month produced record departures for all months for several regional areas such as the global oceans, NH land, SH oceans, tropical land, and more.
In terms of absolute temperature, October’s global value of 264.87K was cooler than the last three months (July hit 266.06K) simply because those months are naturally warmer as the global temperature is warmest in July and coolest in January. The tropics have a different pattern with the warmest month being April and coolest in July on average, so that the current October tropical warmth of 274.23K (anomaly of +1.00 K) is slightly cooler than the warmest month of 274.79 (April 1998). These very warm global atmospheric temperatures are expected to continue with the ongoing El Niño event through at least the boreal winter in 2024 since the tropical Pacific seawater temperatures are still warmer than average, especially for this time of year, though the tropical water temperatures appeared to have leveled off in the past three months. See NOAA’s updates here.
After reporting the warmest and coolest temperature departure from average, they write:
“A continuing and interesting question at this point is, “When will the El Niño and its warming influence peak?” Since it began 4-5 months earlier than usual, will it peak earlier as well, or will it continue to maintain its strength until the typical peak in Feb-Apr? We will have to wait and see.”
The Background note states:
“New Reference Base Jan 2021 and forward. As noted in the Jan 2021 GTR, the situation comes around every 10 years when the reference period or “30-year normal” that we use to calculate the departures is redefined. With that, we have averaged the absolute temperatures over the period 1991-2020, in accordance with the World Meteorological Organization’s guidelines, and use this as the new base period. This allows the anomalies to relate more closely to the experience of the average person, i.e., the climate of the last 30 years. Due to the rising trend of global and regional temperatures, the new normals are a little warmer than before, i.e., the global average temperature for Januarys for 1991-2020 is 0.14 °C warmer than the average for Januarys during 1981-2010. So, the new departures from this now warmer average will appear to be cooler, but this is an artifact of simply applying a new base period. It is important to remember that changes over time periods, such as a trend value or the relative difference of one year to the next, will not change. Think about it this way, all we’ve done is to take the entire time series and shifted it down a little.”
To TWTW the most important part is the global decadal trend: for the entire record since Dec 1, 1978, it has warmed an average of 0.14°C (0.25°F) every ten years. On a sunny spring morning it will warm that fast in five minutes in Northern Virginia. Compared to the temperature variations over the past million years from ice core records taken at Vostok, Antarctica, and verified by deep sea sediments in many locations around the globe, the warming trend is insignificant. See links under Measurement Issues – Atmosphere
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A Freeze Coming? H. Sterling Burnett draws attention to an interesting article in the journal, Atmosphere, by geographer Stuart A. Harris, “Comparison of Recently Proposed Causes of Climate Change,” Harris has published on topics such as “Thermal History of the Arctic Ocean” and “Global Heat Budget, Plate Tectonics and Climatic Change.” The abstract states [boldface added]:
“This paper compares the ideas contained in the main papers published on climate change since World War II to arrive at a suggested consensus of our present knowledge regarding climatic changes and their causes. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is only suggested as a cause in one theory, which, despite its wide acceptance by Politicians, the media, and the Public, ignores the findings in other studies, including the ideas found in the Milankovitch Cycles. It also does not explain the well-known NASA map of the changes between the global 1951–1978 and the 2010–2019 mean annual temperatures. The other theories by Oceanographers, Earth scientists, and Geographers fit together to indicate that the variations in climate are the result of differential solar heating of the Earth, resulting in a series of processes redistributing the heat to produce a more uniform range of climates around the surface of the Earth. Key factors are the shape of the Earth and the Milankovitch Cycles, the distribution of land and water bodies, the differences between heating land and water, ocean currents and gateways, air masses, and hurricanes. Low atmospheric carbon dioxide levels during cold events could result in too little of this gas to support photosynthesis in plants, resulting in the extermination of most life on Earth as we know it. The 23 ka Milankovitch cycle has begun to reduce the winter insolation received at the surface of the atmosphere in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere starting in 2020. This results in extreme weather as the winter insolation reaching the surface of the atmosphere in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere decreases while the summer air temperatures increase. It heralds the start of the next glaciation. A brief outline is given of some of the climatic changes and consequences that may be expected in western Canada during the next 11.5 ka.”
The body of the paper discusses the three types of Milankovitch cycles:
“They are the shape of the Earth’s orbit (eccentricity, a 100,000-year cycle), the angle of tilt of the Earth’s axis relative to the Earth’s orbital plane (obliquity, from 21.1–24.5° in a 41,000-year cycle), and the direction in which the Earth’s axis of rotation is pointing (precession, a 23,000-year cycle). Milankovitch calculated that cold events might occur approximately every 41,000 years. Subsequent work shows that these are key controls affecting the climate of the Earth.”
The paper reviews the uneven heating of Earth by the Sun, the variations in seasonal heating in the higher latitudes, the importance of oceanic and atmospheric currents in distributing heat, including cyclones, the isolation of Antarctica, and the sources of cold air masses and the paths they follow. Further, the warm air masses are primarily centered in the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Under the effects of humans on climate change the paper states [reference omitted here]:
The IPCC argues that carbon dioxide coming from industrial plants controls the air temperature. Certainly, deforestation, logging, agriculture, and urbanization have altered the albedo on land, but these changes do not produce sufficiently large temperature changes to be significant when compared with the quantity of solar radiation reaching the surface of the Earth. They may, however, cause substantial changes in precipitation, as in the case of Costa Rica, where deforestation of 85% of the rain forest resulted in a reduction in precipitation of c.30%. There is a marked difference between the warming of cities by the heat island effect and the rural areas of the northern hemisphere, which have not shown marked warming during the last 10 years.
Under Identification of Cold Events in the Oceans the paper states references and figures omitted here:
“Some of the most important evidence for climatic changes has been found by Oceanographers. These include fluctuations in sea temperatures in the deep-sea cores and evidence for the transport of solar heat from the equatorial areas by warm currents in the seas and by hurricanes, as well as by deep thermohaline currents.
Fluctuations in Sea Temperatures Measured by δ O18 in Foraminifera
Shackleton was the first to report numerous alternating warm and cool assemblages of layers from deep sea cores in the Atlantic Ocean. Subsequent work showed that there were over 100 such fluctuations in the last 3.3 Ma B.P., and these became more marked in the upper layers of the cores, while the amplitude of temperature fluctuations increased towards the sediment surface. They showed a progressive cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean beginning about 3.5 Ma B.P. However, the frequency of the cold peaks is much greater than the 41-ka calculated by Milankovitch and appears to be controlled by [the] 23-ka precession cycle. The 41-ka cycle must be part of the cause of the variation in degree of cold from one cold period to the next.”
The paper discusses the Thermohaline Circulation, the proposal by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) including:
“No consideration is given to the fact that as the water in the oceans warms, the carbon dioxide dissolved in it decreases in solubility, and degassing takes place. This degassing from the oceans is slow and matches the increase in temperature of the upper 2000 m of the North Atlantic Ocean, at any rate for the data for that location since 1910. The warming appeared to precede increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation at 24 sites around the world during the last deglaciation, but this was the result of comparing surface water temperature with the total carbon dioxide degassed from the entire water column at each site.”
The paper discusses some of the objections to the IPCC theory based on mathematical models, including testimony by John Christy. It states:
“The theory has been embraced by governments, research workers who saw it as a means of obtaining research grants, commercial firms who saw the possibilities of new work, environmentalists, and the press since it was a simple explanation that could easily be understood by the public, but it has been severely criticized by a substantial number of experienced scientists. For example, there have been over 75,000 comments published on ResearchGate concerning the relationship between seawater temperature and increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Many are not very chivalrous!”
The paper compares incoming solar radiation over Utah from 2015 to 2023 with predictions using IPCC CO2 levels. Then it projects probable changes in landscapes over the next 11,500 years. It concludes that [references omitted here]:
“Enough theories have been tried and tested so that we now have a much better idea of how the climatic cycle works. The cycle commenced as soon as the Earth cooled down and is closely related to the main source of heating coming from the Sun and the Milankovitch cycles. The Sun has been steadily warming since the beginning of the Earth’s history]. If the Astronomers are correct, this heating will continue until the Sun becomes a Red Star and swallows up the inner four planets one by one, possibly starting about 5 Ma [over a billion years] in the future. This increase is superimposed on the 23 ka, 41 ka, and 100 ka cycles resulting from the relative positions and movements of the Sun and the Earth. Carbon dioxide is a gas that is of fundamental importance to life as we know it. If its concentration in the atmosphere becomes too low, the bulk of the living things on the surface of the Earth will die, and the surface will become as barren as the other planets in the solar system. There seems to be no connection between carbon dioxide and the temperature of the Earth. Accordingly, the policies used by policymakers need to be changed to eliminate the burial of carbon dioxide underground, not provide large sums of public money to foreign firms to build battery factories and realize that we will still need the oil and gas industry in the future. It is an essential part of the economy, and in the future, any necessary pipelines should not [?] be seriously considered. The gas tax should be eliminated.
The climate of the Earth is driven by the uneven solar heating of the surface of the Earth and the movements of the excess heat in the tropics towards the cooler polar regions, primarily by the movements of ocean currents, modified by the movements of air masses. The rotation of the Earth results in the Coriolis force causing fluids to rotate in a clockwise direction in the northern Hemisphere and in an anticlockwise direction in the southern Hemisphere. It also results in an eastward movement of the air masses around the Poles of the Earth. Oceans make up 70% of the surface of the Earth, and the thermal properties of water result in ocean currents being the primary method of transporting heat towards the poles, aided by hurricanes. The circular shape of Antarctica prevents the direct transport of heat to Antarctica, in contrast to the heating of adjacent land areas of the Northern Hemisphere via the North Atlantic Ocean. The excess heat in the North Atlantic Ocean causes intense evaporation of sea water, producing dense, deep-water thermohaline masses that periodically move south to the colder water circulating around Antarctica, thus causing a periodic return flow of cold Antarctic surface water to the North Atlantic.
Finally, it should be noted that the expansion of the cooling continues through four 23 ka cooling events before the warming phase of the last 23 ka cycle triggers excess pressure in the cold Arctic air mass, resulting in the resurrection of the Arctic Air escaping south along Path II, relieving the pressure from the Subtropical Air mass from the south. In this way, the excess mass of Arctic air is moved south and converted into Subtropical air, allowing deglaciation to take place and the commencement of the next short warm event (Interglacial) in the northern hemisphere.”
In describing the recent history of Earth, Stuart Harris examines the deep-sea sediments in a manner similar to that of Tom Gallagher and draws similar conclusions: for over three million years the dominant feature of Earth’s climate is glaciation, particularly in the Northern Latitudes. But Harris makes forecasts which Gallagher did not do. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and the July 15 TWTW https://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2023/TWTW%207-15-23.pdf.
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For Students: The CO2 Coalition assembled a group of about 15 dedicated scientists, most with Ph.Ds. to develop a set of teaching tools for children emphasizing the importance of carbon dioxide and water vapor for life on Earth. The group is called the CO2 Learning Center, and it has produced three books and four videos that are informative and entertaining. The website states:
“Meet Our Team:
The CO2 Learning Center team is composed of highly motivated scientists and climate experts concerned about the quality and state of science education in America. They promote the scientific method rather than indoctrination.
Their backgrounds include physics, chemistry, geology and more. Most hold PhDs or advanced degrees in applied sciences and promote scientific thought over political agendas.”
About the CO2 Learning Center
Concern among many members of the CO2 Coalition over the state of science education in America led to the creation of an Education Initiative to explore ways that our scientists could educate young people about science without climate alarmism. The CO2 Learning Center is the result of this collaboration of nearly twenty top scientists and experts that include chemists, geologists, engineers, physicists and more. Here, students can learn about topics including atmospheric gases, photosynthesis, and our thriving planet.
Our Mission
The CO2 Coalition educates thought leaders, policymakers, and the public about the important contribution made by carbon dioxide to our lives and the economy. The Coalition seeks to engage in an informed and dispassionate discussion of climate change, humans’ role in the climate system, the limitations of climate models, and the consequences of mandated reductions in CO2 emissions.
The lesson plans were created by Sharon Camp, who:
“has a bachelor’s degree in geology from the University of Georgia and a Ph.D. in analytical chemistry from Georgia Tech. She has worked in industry, for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and as an advanced placement environmental science teacher. Dr. Camp is certified to teach 9-12 science in the state of Georgia and has twenty years’ experience as a science teacher. Before her recent retirement she taught high school Advanced Placement (AP) Environmental Science for fifteen years. She is currently a reader (grader) for the yearly national AP Environmental Science exam. Dr. Camp is the Senior Education Advisor for the CO2 Coalition and creator of CO2 Learning Center lesson plans.”
TWTW has reviewed the videos and part of the lesson plans, found them valuable, and recommended them to home school and private school teachers. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Conflict Coming: For years advocates of CO2-caused global warming have engaged in false personal accusations against critics such as Fredrick Seitz and S. Fred Singer. There is no question that Earth is warming, the question is cause. In a column in the Wall Street Journal, Holman Jenkins, Jr. expresses the issue well. He writes:
“If this column has ever plagiarized itself, it’s by repeating the phrase ‘evidence of warming is not evidence of what causes warming.’ A paper published by the Norwegian government’s statistical agency, written by two of its retired experts, touching on this very subject has called forth so many shrieked accusations of climate apostasy that you know it must be interesting.
The authors ask a simple question: Are computerized climate simulations a sufficient basis for attributing observed warming to human CO2? After all, the Earth’s climate has been subject to substantial warming and cooling trends for millennia that remain unexplained and can’t be attributed to fossil fuels. As statisticians, their conclusion: ‘With the current level of knowledge, it seems impossible to determine how much of the temperature increase is due to emissions of CO2.’
Wow. For all the abuse dumped on them for this modest observation, and even some apologetic hemming and hawing from the government-run Statistics Norway, the authors don’t say climate models don’t make useful predictions. Their predictions are useful precisely for testing the validity of climate models. What’s more, many who are concerned about climate change have no trouble seeing the problem as a matter of risks rather than certainties. This includes co-author John Dagsvik, who told Norway’s Aftenposten newspaper he favors emissions curbs for precautionary reasons.
The correlation-to-causation puzzle is hardly the authors’ invention, having bedeviled the oracular Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change since its founding in 1988. But unrestrained name-calling is required, the critics say, because anything that undermines confidence in climate models undermines progress against climate change. Which is laughable. What progress? If any proposition has been demonstrated beyond doubt, equating skepticism with Holocaust denial etc. is the most failed salesmanship strategy in the history of public policy, as readily shown in the emissions data.
What really upsets the critics, though they are petrified to say so, is the paper’s ever so gently brushing its sleeve against the measurement problem.
Since we’re using abstruse calculations of an annual average global temperature to validate the climate models, it matters if these calculations—based on disparate instruments and unstable sampling frequencies and a variety of ‘proxies’ for times and places when no measurements were taken—are accurate and meaningful.
Before 2015, as I’ve previously noted, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that 2005 and 2010 were equally warm to the second decimal. By 2015, the record was changed to claim 2010 was warmer than 2005. Such adjustments are common, and the Norwegians point out the obvious: ‘It is impossible to evaluate the validity of such administrative changes for an outside user of these records.’ In 2017, independent researcher Marcia Wyatt showed 16 such revisions had been made to the long-past temperature record in just the previous three years.
I’ve long argued that if a future climate scandal is lurking, it’s here. A spirit of disingenuousness already pervades NOAA’s use of these numbers to make ‘hottest year’ and ‘hottest month’ proclamations, ignoring its own stated margin of error, which is often a large multiple of the claimed temperature difference from one period to the next.”
Something beyond hysteria, though, explains the continued reliance on the no-longer-plausible idea that ritually attacking every expression of skepticism moves the ball on climate policy. By now, it’s some people’s job, if not personal vocation, to enact these rituals of denunciation simply because it helps prop up the green corporate welfare that has become the primary substitute for climate action as well as the primary incentive for anyone to spend working hours participating in these now-tired activities.
Jenkins discusses James Hansen, then concludes:
“As long as we’re noting ironies, much of the abuse of the Norwegian authors comes from their fellow Norwegians, whose pretense of green virtue is funded by their country being, per capita, one of the biggest exporters of oil and gas the world has ever known.”
The discussion paper published by Statistics Norway was discussed in last week’s TWTW. See Article # 1.
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Additions and Corrections: Last week, in discussing the work of Danish geologist Ole Humlum at the University Centre in Svalbard, TWTW erroneously wrote Denmark. The Svalbard archipelago is part of the Kingdom of Norway.
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Number of the Week: 5 to 7 times the electricity now used. During hearings on future power requirements in Virginia, representatives of Dominion Electric who have good relationships with developers of data centers stated that typically data centers in Virginia require a 100-megawatt (MW) substation. Also, they stated that the current thinking is that data centers using artificial intelligence will require 5 to 7 times that amount of power. Artificial intelligence requires massive calculations. The power requirements are speculative because such data centers have not yet been built. It is doubtful that wind and solar, plus whatever storage, are capable of providing such power 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, with 99.99% reliability.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Atmosphere and Greenhouse Gas Primer
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
About The CO2 Learning Center
By Scientists, CO2 Coalition, Accessed Nov 1, 2023
The crippling problem of renewable green energy cannot be solved
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 31, 2023
“Using assumptions grounded in the technologies and costs prevalent today, we’d conclude that we’d need six months’ storage, and would have to settle ongoing annual bills equivalent to five HS2 projects per year.”
[SEPP Comment: Article in The Telegraph, UK, is by Michael Kelly, Emeritus Professor of Engineering at the University of Cambridge. HS2 was a UK high-speed rail project that was cancelled due to escalating costs.]
Climate Change Weekly #487: Study Suggests Causes of Climate Change Beyond CO2
By H. Sterling Burnett, WUWT, Nov 3, 2023
Link to paper: Comparison of Recently Proposed Causes of Climate Change
By Stuart A. Harris, Atmosphere, Aug 3, 2023
Again, A Fuss About The AMOC. Reality: Future Scenarios Border On Adventurous Speculation
By Fritz Vahrenholt und Frank Bosse, Via P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 27, 2023
[SEPP Comment: AMOC is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, part of the thermohaline circulation and is estimated to take a thousand years.]
The Prosecutor’s Fallacy and the IPCC Report
Press Release, Global Warming Policy Foundation, Sep 13, 2023
Link to report: The Prosecutor’s Fallacy and the IPCC Report
By Norman Fenton, Global Warming Policy Foundation, Sep 13, 2023
Scientific Method Restored to Science Education in North Carolina
By Gregory Wrightstone, WUWT, Oct 29, 2023
Kansas Energy Freedom Now!
By Sherri Lange, Master Resource, Nov 3, 2023
“’ The United States of America, and now by default, the rest of the world, have been seriously misinformed since the SCOTUS made a very serious error in 2009, via Massachusetts v. EPA. They allowed the EPA to falsely transform the innocent, trace atmospheric gas, CO2, into a pollutant. Nothing could possibly be further from the truth. As a result, Trillions of Dollars have been wasted, people in 3rd and 4th World countries have been deprived of the most fundamentally necessary power to turn on the lights and be released from poverty and join the rest of the civilized world.’”
“This is the first time we have seen a legislative body organize, and nearly 100% agree, that climate change, which it always does and has done, should not be a driver for energy policy. It is the first time we have seen in such a document, a clear rejection of industrial wind and solar profiteers, and references to the irrefutable evidence of harm to the environment, people, and a clear intention to go forward with reliable, responsible, and cost-effective energy policy, while respecting property rights.”
It never used to happen
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 1,2023
“Meanwhile a BBC item on pre-Columbian carvings that have surfaced due to low water in the Amazon insists that ‘The Brazilian government attributes the drought to climate change and the El Niño weather phenomenon, which has caused the volume of rainfall in the northern Amazon to fall below the historical average and river levels to drop to near record levels.’ But if so, how were people carving there a thousand or even two thousand years ago? Were they holding their breath? Or is drought natural and periodic? No, it can’t be. It mustn’t be.”
Defending the Orthodoxy
The planet is heating up faster than predicted, says scientist who sounded climate alarm in the 1980s
By Laura Paddison, CNN, Nov 2, 2023
Link to paper: Global warming in the pipeline
By James E Hansen, Makiko Sato, et al, Oxford Open, Climate Change, Nov 2, 2023
The abstract begins with: “Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change yields Charney (fast-feedback) equilibrium climate sensitivity 1.2 ± 0.3°C (2σ) per W/m2, which is 4.8°C ± 1.2°C for doubled CO2.” Also stated is:
“The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature.”
[SEPP Comment; The former head of NASA-GISS still has not learned that the greenhouse effect occurs in the atmosphere? Demanding a return to the Holocene-level of 8000 years ago, which was warmer than today?]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Earth on track to lock in key climate threshold in 2029: study
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Oct 31, 2023
Link to paper: Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets
By Robin D. Lamboll, et al., Nature Climate Change, Oct 30, 2023
“’Will we be at 1.5C in 6 years, assuming no fall in emissions? Probably not. If emissions don’t fall, we still have the temporary aerosol cooling. But we’d likely be committed to reach it eventually,’ Lamboll wrote.”
[SEPP Comment: Playing the aerosol game. Who determines the budget?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Oh Noes! Window to avoid 1.5°C of warming will close before 2030 if emissions are not reduced
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Nov 1, 2023
See link immediately above.
A ‘Major Surprise’ Nature Study Finds Phasing Out Fossil Fuels Will Lead To Decades Of Warming
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 2, 2023
Link to paper: Aerosol demasking enhances climate warming over South Asia
By H. R. C. R. Nair, et al, Nature, Climate and Atmospheric Science, May 20, 2023
[SEPP Comment: An appropriate twist, the abstract of the paper starts: “Anthropogenic aerosols mask the climate warming caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs). In the absence of observational constraints, large uncertainties plague the estimates of this masking effect.” For years, alarmists have claimed that aerosol cooling is hiding CO2 warming.]
New Study: Lower Bound Uncertainty In Aerosol Forcing 10 Times Larger Than 10 Years Of CO2 Forcing
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 30, 2023
Link to paper: Reducing Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty by Combining Models With Satellite and Within-The-Atmosphere Observations: A Three-Way Street
By Ralph A. Kahn, et al., Reviews of Geophysics, May 3, 2023
“Apparently we are expected to remain skeptical about the popular claim that we humans can determine what happens to the global climate with our daily living activities despite glaring attributional uncertainties.”
The actual ‘climate change’ agenda
By Chris Talgo, American Thinker, Oct 26, 2023
Link to paper: The 2023 state of the climate report: Entering uncharted territory.
By William J Ripple, et al., BioScience, Oct 24, 2023
“Sadly, the climate change-industrial complex, a multi-trillion-dollar money machine, has irrevocably corrupted the once-hallowed scientific community. As most scientists know, though are probably less-than-willing to go on record for fear of cancelation and loss of grants and such, climate change is not an existential threat.”
Say, They Want A Revolution …
By I & I Editorial Board, Nov 2, 2023
“In his book “Barack Obama’s Rules for Revolution,” David Horowitz, a New Left movement founder in the 1960s, refers to a member of the radical Students for a Democratic Society who ‘once wrote, ‘The issue is never the issue. The issue is always the revolution.’ In other words, the cause – whether inner city blacks or women – is never the real cause, but only an occasion to advance the real cause which is the accumulation of power to make the revolution.’ Now apply that to the tussle over man’s impact on the climate and things become much clearer.”
A Do-It-Yourself Demonstration Project Of Wind, Solar And Batteries Comes Nowhere Near Eliminating Fossil Fuels
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Oct 29, 2023
“Conclusion:
It matters nought that you have massive renewable generation capacity if you can’t store power for extended periods. So, you can have all the wind and solar farms you want, but without fossil fuel or nuclear back up you’ll need to buy a good supply of warm blankets and candles if you don’t want to be spending a lot of time shivering in the dark.”
[SEPP Comment: The “Textilis” effort reported in TWTW last week.]
After Paris!
Will China pay climate change “loss and damage”?
By David Wojick, CFACT, Oct 31, 2023
Busted
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 1,2023
“Inside Climate News warns that ‘Experts Warn of ‘Denialism Comeback’ Ahead of November’s Global Climate Talks’.’ Apparently, our sinister plot to take over the world has been exposed.”
COP28 Organizers Already Accused of Greenwashing
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 1, 2023
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Carbon Dioxide: Vital Plant Food
By Jim Hollingsworth, American Thinker, Nov 3, 2023
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Indonesia Shelves Decarbonization for Prosperity and Security
By Vijay Jayaraj, Real Clear Energy, Oct 30, 2023
Seeking a Common Ground
New Ocean Satellite Monitors How El Niño Is Shaping Up
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Nov 3, 3034
Climate Change: A Curious Crisis
By Iain Aitken, Climate Etc. Oct 31, 2023
“As explained in my new eBook, Climate Change: A Curious Crisis, the climate change ‘debate’ has long-since become a Manichaean, deeply polarized, ‘you are either with us or against us’ war of words in which both sides accuse the other of being closed-minded and refusing to accept the ‘facts’.”
[SEPP Comment: The opening paragraph highlights the folly by some on both sides of the argument. To SEPP, there is no doubt that CO2 is greenhouse gas, and that greenhouse gases prevent the land masses from becoming too cold at night to support complex life. The key is to establish an upper limit on the influence of CO2 on temperatures. There are many influences on Earth’s temperatures, including the most significant one, exposure to solar radiation. The work of van Wijngaarden and Happer, Lindzen, Hayden, and others indicate that the doubling of CO2 alone may increase temperatures by about 1 degree C. However global climate models are based on the speculation that this increase in temperature will be doubled by an increase in water vapor causing another 1-degree C. But this increase in water vapor, water vapor amplification, is not found in the data compiled from over 60 years of weather balloon releases and 44 years of satellite observations of temperature trends. The author claims doubt, while the important issue is physical evidence based on observations!]
In Denial about the Science – Part 2, ARC in London
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Nov 4, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Long post on the inaugural conference of the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship in Greenwich, which was more political than scientific. The panelists responded poorly: “when Dennis Prager asked an important question: Is Antarctica melting or not”? The question requires a hasty generalization. It is similar to asking when Mount St Helens blew, is North America erupting?]
Pielke Jr.: Going All in with Peak Fossil Fuels by 2030
The International Energy Agency bets its reputation on an aggressive prediction
By Rober Pielke Jr. The Honest Broker, Oct 27, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Whatever reputation it still has!]
Policies Meant to Address Climate Change Can Worsen Human Suffering
By Philip Rosetti & Robert G. Eccles, Real Clear Energy, Nov 1, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Assumes CO2, which is critical for complex life on this planet, is a pollutant.]
Models v. Observations
Colorado River Flow Data Disproves “Climate Change Warming” Computer Model Flow Reduction Claims
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Nov 2, 2023
Models Vs. Reality: Sea Turtle Edition
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Nov 2, 2023
Link to paper: Adaptation of sea turtles to climate warming: Will phenological responses be sufficient to counteract changes in reproductive output?
By M. M. P. B. Fuentes, et al., Global Change Biology, Oct 31, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Sea turtles split off from reptiles about 230 million years ago, and modern sea turtles arose from a common ancestor about 110 million years ago. They have survived from “Hothouse Earth” to today’s “Icehouse Earth” — and the modest warming since the 19th century will kill them?]
Model Issues
#ECS in the real world: Lewis 2013
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 1,2023
[SEPP Comment: An expert in the math used by climate experts cannot criticize the math in models of climate because he is not an expert on the mysteries of climate change?]
Measurement Issues — Surface
A New Global Urban Heat Island Dataset: Global Grids of the Urban Heat Island Effect on Air Temperature, 1800-2023
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Nov 3, 2023
Texas Record Summer Temperatures? Or UHI.
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 31, 2023
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
UAH Global Temperature Update for October 2023: +0.93 deg. C
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Nov 2, 2023
UAH Global Temperature Report, October 2023
By John Christy and Roy Spencer, Earth System Science Center, UAH, Nov 2, 2023
Map: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2023/October2023/202310_Map.png
Graph: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2023/October2023/202310_Bar.png
Text: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2023/October2023/GTR_202310OCT_v1.pdf
Changing Weather
NCAR Study: Otis Rapid Hurricane Intensification was Not Driven by Climate Change
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 31, 2023
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 1,2023
“Now that it’s fall, with characteristically large swings between warmth and cold it can be hard to keep track of what’s weather and what’s climate change. For instance, GB News tells us that Britain, which had a cold, clammy summer, ‘braces for arctic deep freeze as ongoing storms threaten to lash country’. But it’s just a ‘‘volatile’ weather pattern’ not climate change. Whereas when a few places in Ontario set a record for high lows on October 27 it’s ‘driven by climate change.’ Meanwhile snow on the ground on October 30 was just… well, you know (with a side of climate change melting glaciers).”
The November Precipitation Switch
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Oct 31, 2023
Veteran Meteorologist Joe Bastardi: “We Got A Cold Winter Coming Up For [Western] Europe”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 29, 2023
Decline In US Flooding
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 30, 2023
Changing Climate
Millennial climate variability along the coast of the northwestern Iberian Peninsula
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 1, 2023
From the CO2Science Archive:
This Isn’t the First Time in Human History Our Winters Have Become Milder
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 1, 2023
“Melting Alpine glaciers are perhaps the most poignant symbol of a slowly warming world. However, a little-known fact is that Alpine glaciers have all but melted completely 12 times in the last 10,000 years (since the end of the last glaciation). This is known through Carbon 14 dating of woody fragments found in the ice. These dates form clusters signifying times when trees grew in the ice basins from where the glaciers now flow.
The exact cause of these cyclical changes in glacier length is unknown, but a likely candidate is cyclical changes to ocean currents.”
Changing Climate – Cultures & Civilizations
Witch Hunts Correlate with Climate
By Gregory Wrightstone, WUWT, Nov 2, 2023
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
October 2023 Arctic Ice Grows by Leaps
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Nov 2, 2023
Lowering Standards
Hurricane Otis–Cat 5?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 1, 2023
“In other words, the satellites suggested sustained wind speeds of about 140 mph, which means it was only a Cat 4 hurricane.
Nor was there any evidence on the ground of 165 mph winds, even where the eye of the storm passed through:”
Shock News!!! – It Rained Last Month, Say Met Office
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 2, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
CNN Peddles Alarm About Western Antarctica Melting
By Linnea Lueken, Vai WUWT, Nov 1, 2023
“Despite the paper acknowledging significant uncertainties, one of the study’s authors claimed that we have ‘lost control’ of west Antarctic melting. This is pure hyperbole because humanity never had such control.”
Los Angeles Times Misrepresents California Central Valley “Weather” as “Climate”
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Oct 28, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Ocean warming is accelerating, with hotspots taking the brunt
By Simon Mansfield, Sydney, Australia (SPX) Nov 01, 2023
Likely paper: Recent acceleration in global ocean heat accumulation by mode and intermediate waters
By Zhi Li, et al., Nature Communications, Oct 28, 2023
“Since the early 1990s, the rate of ocean warming has nearly doubled during the 2010-2020 period as compared to 1990-2000. This is chiefly due to human activities, which have led to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.”
[SEPP Comment: The abstract starts: “The ocean absorbs >90% of anthropogenic heat in the Earth system, moderating global atmospheric warming.” Infrared radiation from greenhouse gases does not penetrate even an inch into the oceans. There is little question that the seas are warming, but what is the cause? It is probably from more visible water penetrating sunlight hitting the oceans and from submerged volcanic activity.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
1.5m [UK] Homes At Risk From Melting Sea Ice!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 30, 2023
Met Office Fake Claim Of Record Low Pressure
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 2, 2023
“It is simply not acceptable for the Met Office to go around claiming records without even bothering to check their own archives. I would not be at all surprised if the England “record” for November also proves to be fake.”
Modeling Gone Wild
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 31, 2023
Link to paper: Venus’s atmospheric nitrogen explained by ancient plate tectonics.
By Matthew B. Weller, et al., Nature Astronomy, Oct 26, 2023
“’That’s going to be the next critical step in understanding Venus, its evolution and ultimately the fate of the Earth,’ Weller said. ‘What conditions will force us to move in a Venus-like trajectory, and what conditions could allow the Earth to remain habitable?’”
[SEPP Comment” What conditions will force us to move to an evidence-based science?]
Global Teleconnections
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 30, 2023
Video
“The case against science is straightforward: much of the scientific literature, perhaps half, may simply be untrue. Afflicted by studies with small sample sizes, tiny effects, invalid exploratory analyses, and flagrant conflicts of interest, together with an obsession for pursuing fashionable trends of dubious importance, science has taken a turn towards darkness. As one participant put it, ‘poor methods get results.’”
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
NatWest combs customer accounts – and tells them to go vegetarian
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 3, 2023
“NatWest [bank] is telling customers to stop eating meat and to drive electric cars after combing their accounts to calculate their carbon footprint.”
“It comes as the bank, which is backed by British taxpayers, is rocked by the Nigel Farage debunking scandal in which NatWest-owned Coutts bank attempted to close the prominent politician’s account after judging he held ‘xenophobic, chauvinistic and racist views’.”
More climate violence rhetoric: When it was “time to put heads on spikes”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 29, 2023
“Twiggy, given blocking high pressure systems which kill wind power for days or weeks over the entire continent are a fact of life, too bad you didn’t give reliable 24×7 zero carbon nuclear reactors a chance. Large regions of Australia can also suffer wind droughts which last for months, as South Australia discovered in 2017.”
Questioning European Green
Germany’s “Green Craze” Is “Expensive, Destructive, Useless”… A “Total Failure”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 31, 2023
Why Dr Evans [of Carbon Brief] is wrong
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Nov 1, 2023
Questioning Green Elsewhere
When satire writes itself
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 1,2023
“Greenwashing is a problem, to be sure. But self-delusion on a cosmic scale is more so. Thus it is irony of the deep sort that, in fact, they have managed to have the power fail without reaching the goal. A splendid metaphor for the entire Green New Deal and Net Zero Movement.”
Blink
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 1,2023
“As the real impact of climate policy is felt in the real world, lots of people are objecting that it’s hurting more than we were promised. A lot more. And politicians who insisted their schemes would make us all better off are now saying they need to hit pause because they’re making too many people worse off.”
Funding Issues
House GOP approves cutting EPA budget by nearly 40 percent
By Rachel Frazin and Aris Folley, The Hill, Nov 3, 2023
Litigation Issues
Pennsylvania court rules former governor illegally joined carbon emissions trading alliance
By Zack Budryk. The Hill, Nov 1, 2023
Court Blocks Pennsylvania from Joining RGGI
By Steve Haner, Bacon’s Rebellion, Nov 1, 2023 [H/t WUWT]
Court tosses EPA ban on pesticide linked to brain damage in kids
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Nov 2, 2023
[SEPP Comment; How are they linked? They appear in the same sentence?]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Green energy and economic fabulism: The mirage of subsidy-propelled economic growth and employment. [US]
By Jonathan Lesser, GWPF, 2023
“Open for review draft”
Biden administration to pay $440M to install solar panels in Puerto Rico
By Lauren Sforza, The Hill, Nov 2, 2023
“’With this announcement, we take a critical step forward in our efforts to ensure that all Puerto Rico residents have reliable electricity, especially the most vulnerable families and communities for whom a lack of power can be life or death,’ Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said.”
[SEPP Comment: Given the warmth of the island, there is no reason to have power at night?]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
The EPA’s War Against Cars
By William Levin, American Thinker, Nov 2, 2023
Energy Issues — US
“Energy Choices and Market Decision Making”: A 30-year Retrospective
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Oct 31, 2023
Biden administration approves largest offshore wind project in the US
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Oct 31, 2023
“The Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project — located 23.5 nautical miles off the coast of Virginia Beach — marks the fifth commercial-scale, offshore wind project approved in the U.S.”
“The Interior Department put the figure at about 900,000 homes, while electric company Dominion Energy, which owns the project, estimated the figure to be 660,000 homes.”
“Tracey Blythe Moriarty, spokesperson for the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management said that the federal government used a general calculation of 350 homes per megawatt in its estimate — meaning the project’s 2,600 megawatts would be expected to power about 900,000 homes.”
[SEPP Comment: What powers them when wind fails? See two links immediately below.]
Ørsted gives up on New Jersey wind projects
By Kirk Moore, National Fisherman, Oct 31, 2023 [H/t WUWT]
“It’s a major blow to U.S. renewable energy ambitions, coming hours after the Biden administration announced final approval of the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project, touting it as the next milestone following Ocean Wind 1.”
Virginia – Don’t Follow Net-Zero Lemmings Over the Energy Cliff
By Paul Driessen, WUWT, Oct 28, 2023
Giberson: Mandatory Open Access (ISO/RTO) is “a very regulated market” (!)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Nov 2, 2023
Washington’s Control of Energy
Biden admin abruptly delays major oil and gas lease sale mandated under Inflation Reduction Act
Biden administration ‘continues to demonstrate its willingness to ignore the clear and growing need to expand American energy leadership,’ industry group says
By Thomas Catenacci, Fox Business, Nov 2, 2023
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Op-Ed: Five years later, evidence of fracking’s safety is stronger than ever
By Linnea Lueken and Tim Benson, The Center Square, Oct 24, 2023
It’s Full Steam Ahead for Venture Global and LNG
By Peter Roff, Real Clear Energy, Nov 1, 2023
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Kathryn Porter On Nuclear Power
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 2, 2023
Homewood: “There is, by the way, an easy solution to the problem of environmental activist opposition to nuclear – simply tell them the choice is nuclear or gas!”
Nuclear or Net Zero. It Can’t be Both
By Peter Smith, Quadrant, Oct 30, 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Wind Unaffordable, Costs Common Sense
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Nov 1, 2023
Oersted Cancel Two US Offshore Wind Projects
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 2, 2023
“Ørsted said it had cancelled the Ocean Wind I and II schemes because of high inflation, rising interest rates and supply chain bottlenecks.”
“The two Ocean Wind projects off the New Jersey coast would have provided 2.2MW of capacity.”
“The fact that Oersted are happy to write off £2.3bn on Ocean Wind alone shows just how hopelessly uneconomic the project is.”
Shell Pull Out Of US Offshore Wind Farm Contract
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 3, 2023
“A PPA (Power Purchase Agreement) was signed by Shell last year to provide electricity to Massachusetts utilities at $76.73/MWh, about £60/MWh. Just months later, they unsuccessfully attempted to renegotiate the contract.
I suspect that Shell makes one more attempt to get a better price, which the Massachusetts public will end up paying for.”
Rock Creek I and II Gen Tie Remand
By Kevin Kitty, WUWT, Oct 30, 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Hydrogen Hubs: Without Huge Subsidies the Math Doesn’t Work
By Frank Lasee, Real Clear Energy, Oct 31, 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Australia Warns Ferries about EVs
By Andy May, WUWT, Oct 29, 2023
Hertz backpedals on rush into EV rentals: CEO says repair costs can run “twice as high”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 2, 2023
New York City Zero Emission Vehicle Fleet Legislation
By Roger Caiazza, WUWT, Oct 28, 2023
The EV bubble popped: VW orders are down 50%, Ford loses $38,000 on each car, Toyota chief, says “people are waking up”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 31, 2023
Carbon Schemes
Preferred Carbon Capture Method is Uneconomic
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 2, 2023
“And another from Euan!”
California Dreaming
California’s EV conundrums
By Ronald Stein, CFACT, Nov 1, 2023
Health, Energy, and Climate
Climate Health Crisis Meme Goes Viral
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Nov 3, 2023
Doctors-committees call for Joint Global Health Emergency (even though global warming saves lives)
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Her Blog Nov 1, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Life expectancy world-wide increased until COVID.]
Environmental Industry
Rich Men North of Richmond: Michael Bloomberg’s Anti-Coal Agenda
By Tucker Davis, Real Clear Energy, Oct 31, 2023
Other Scientific News
What Causes Earth’s Strongest Lightning Known as ‘Superbolts’?
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Nov 2, 2023
Link to paper: A Possible Cause for Preference of Super Bolt Lightning Over the Mediterranean Sea and the Altiplano
By Avichay Efraim, et al., JGR Atmospheres, Sep 19, 2023
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Tipping into absurdity
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 1,2023
“Among the metaphors that obstruct thought rather than facilitate it is the notion of multiple tipping points. For any given thing, or system, there can logically only be one; before it you don’t tip, after it you do. But in the wacky world of climate, they’re everywhere and nowhere at the same time.”
90% of meat eaters ignore “cigarette style” catastrophe labels on meat
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 3, 2023
Computer Says “Yes”, “Well Maybe” and “No”
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 2, 2023
US Trees Controlled By Global Temperature Graphs
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 29, 2023
ARTICLES
1. The Earth Is Warming, but Is CO2 the Cause?
Norway’s government commits a no-no by letting statisticians pose the most inconvenient question.
By Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., WSJ, Nov 3, 2023
TWTW Summary: Main parts of the article are in the This Week section above.
********************
2. Wind Power Write-Downs Cast Shadow Over Industry Outlook
Orsted is the latest renewable-energy company to book an impairment, with a $4 billion charge against its U.S. offshore portfolio.
By Giulia Petroni, WSJ, Nov. 1, 2023
TWTW Summary: The article begins with:
“A wave of impairments is sweeping through the U.S. wind-energy sector amid high interest rates, inflation and supply-chain woes, forcing developers to put off projects and casting doubts over the industry’s outlook.
Governments around the world have set ambitious targets to increase the share of renewables in their energy mixes, but their plans are now under pressure as wind developers face a surge in financing costs.
Orsted, BP and Equinor have collectively written off $4.8 billion against U.S. offshore wind projects in recent days.
Danish renewable-energy company Orsted said Tuesday that it booked an impairment charge of 28.4 billion Danish kroner, equivalent to $4.02 billion, against its U.S. offshore portfolio and abandoned the development of two wind projects off the coast of New Jersey—Ocean Wind 1 and 2—due to spiraling costs and supplier delays. Orsted previously flagged increasing risks for its projects in the country, citing the lack of favorable progress on tax credits.
‘The significant adverse developments from supply-chain challenges, leading to delays in the project schedule, and rising interest rates have led us to this decision,’ said Orsted Chief Executive Mads Nipper.
The decision came a week before legislative elections in New Jersey, where wind turbines have become a top target for Republicans against Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy’s plan to have 100% of the state’s power coming from renewables by 2035.
‘The industry isn’t in a good shape,’ said Martin Tessier, Stifel’s vice president of equity research for utilities and renewables. ‘I think we’ll see a softening of long-term targets…and less projects will be developed in the long term.’”
The article gives other examples of failures in wind projects, then concludes with:
“In Europe, policy makers recently released an action plan to address the sector’s mounting challenges, saying they are working to ensure faster permitting, improved auction criteria, easier access to finance and guarantees, as well as a more competitive international environment. The European Union’s plan was welcomed as ‘a game-changer for the industry’ by trade group WindEurope, which called for action earlier this year amid high costs, long permitting processes and rising competition from Chinese manufacturers.”
quote:””On a sunny spring morning it will warm that fast in five minutes in Northern Virginia.
Thank you – what I’ve been raving about for years
Why: Get your own datalogging thermometer and or watch your local Wunderground Station.
For where I’ve always lived (between 52 and 55 degrees north) and for spring summers days – watch air temperature rise at a rate of 3Celsius per hour from the very instant the sun comes up.
prior to that, watch the same temp graph drop by 1Celsius per hour through the night
As morning temps rise, see the sudden ‘tipping point’ about 3 hours after sunrise when suddenly
Carbon Dioxide can explain none of those things and they are explained to large degree by the lie that is intrinsic to the GHGE – the atmosphere is NOT transparent to solar radiation.
i.e The Sun heats the atmosphere directly
While Spencer’s Sputniks rely on that fact to record what they do. The measurement there depends on the fact that Oxygen (at least) has all the properties of a Green House Gas.
My words of the day: Model, Could, Might, If etc
Modelling has become the new fount of knowledge. No matter how wrong models might be they provide the ‘cast iron’ basis for any old loony alarm that then gets amplified without question in the media and even in education. Now, I was always of the understanding that chaotic behaviour exists in many natural systems, including….. weather and climate. What does the glorious Met Office say?
“First of all, it’s important to understand that weather isn’t random, it’s chaotic. “
https://www.metlink.org/blog/weather-climate-and-chaos-theory/
So, it was with some degree of surprise that I read this…
“The implications of climate change are well known (droughts, heat waves, extreme phenomena, etc.),” physicist Orfeu Bertolami told Live Science last year. “If the Earth System gets into the region of chaotic behavior, we will lose all hope of somehow fixing the problem.”
https://www.sciencealert.com/physicists-warn-earth-could-feasibly-descend-into-chaos
How did this august physicist arrive at the novel idea that weather is not chaotic?
“Using a theory conceived to model superconductivity, a team of physicists led by Alex Bernadini of the University of Porto in Portugal showed in a preprint paper this year that, after a certain point, we will not be able to restore equilibrium to Earth’s climate.
A finite amount of human activity could result in a Hothouse Earth from which there is no return, the research suggests. They detailed their work in a paper made available in April 2022 on the preprint server arXiv, which remains to be peer-reviewed.”
https://www.sciencealert.com/physicists-warn-earth-could-feasibly-descend-into-chaos
According to this paper, weather and climate are not chaotic at all; but they will be if you don’t do as you’re told. But they do concede…
“This outcome isn’t inevitable, which is something of a relief.”
Even the title is a joke
“Chaotic Behaviour of the Earth System in the Anthropocene”
https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.08955
Can’t see it ever being peer reviewed, somehow….
“The implications of climate
changeare well known (droughts, heat waves, extreme phenomena, etc.),”Fixed it.
________________________________________________________________________________
The results of a model run is not an observation.
Besides that:
IPCC TAR Chapter 14 page 771 (pdf page3)
Executive Summary
The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system,
and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states
is not possible.
Willis’s reference to “ the Greek chorus” spark another image in my cultural and historical mind: a famous painting of the sacking of Rome in 410 AD. And then another one “fiddling while Rome burns” ( im sure someone will chime in to tell me Nero never did that, but Biden fills in pretty good for Nero) So while society obsessed over useless climate model porn; a much more immediate threat secretly massed at the “ gates”
But In the minds of people like Hansen they would use these images to support “ their” point of view. With” smelly loathsome fossil fuel” being the barbarian threat.
https://dailysceptic.org/2023/11/06/jeremy-clarkson-blasts-bbc-and-attenborough-for-stuffing-planet-earth-series-with-climate-propaganda/
I agree with Jezzer – Attenborough has the carbon footprint of a small city, year in, year out – his contribution to global CO2 however, is very welcome
Folks,
Thanks for the plug but my last name is Kilty, not Kitty. I have battled this common misreading my entire life. Please help out.
Cold-blooded cycloneThe cyclone’s Siberian and Arctic roots will promote a drastic shift in temperatures across California as it travels down the West Coast next week.
An Arctic cyclone is descending over the UK.