A recent article in the Sacramento Bee (The Bee) claims that this year’s mild wildfire season in California shouldn’t be attributed to climate change, and also that climate change has caused California wildfires to be more severe. The first point is partially true, a single season’s mild weather should not be attributed to climate change, but neither should extremes in the other direction. The second point is false, climate change has not in fact increased the severity of California’s wildfire seasons.
The article, “California has had another calm wildfire season so far. Here’s why, according to experts,” discusses the last two years of relatively calm wildfire seasons. Although this is good news for fire-prone California, The Bee warns readers “don’t attribute this year’s mildness to climate change just yet.”
The Bee explains:
The number of acres burned so far this year is less than one third of the five-year average, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Experts attribute the drop to this year’s historic winter storms and a record snowpack that soaked the state.
But those atmospheric river storms also created ample new vegetation growth that can act as fuel, state fire officials said. And with the help of gusty fall winds in the weeks ahead, wildfires could still ignite and grow through November or even into December.
It is true that excess vegetation growth can add fuel to fires if and when the brush dries out, this is part of what happened in Maui this year that led to their devastating killer wildfire. Invasive Guinea grass grew lushly during a mild and wet spring, then dried out in the summer weather and created an abundance of extremely flammable material.
It is interesting to note that while the winter weather and atmospheric river events were intense this year in California, it was not unusual or historically unprecedented, as discussed in Climate Realism posts here, here, and here. The Bee goes on to say that unless wildfires suddenly spike this fall and winter, the state “will be experiencing its second straight year of mild wildfire after having endured California’s worst wildfire seasons on record.”
It’s almost as if an average is made up of higher-than-average years and lower-than-average years.
The real kicker from The Bee is what follows, that scientists “are confident that warming temperatures have helped increase the severity and length of fire seasons,” but on the flip side, they are “reticent” to make similar claims when the fire seasons are mild.
But they are wrong in the first point regardless, wildfires are not getting more severe or lasting amid climate change. Worldwide, the number of wildfires and acreage lost to them has actually declined over time. Climate Realism has pointed to the data in numerous posts. NASA satellite data show that carbon dioxide emissions have no impact whatsoever on wildfire occurrence. (See figure below)
The best explanations then for regional upticks in fires are differences in forest management practices, arson, as well as improper maintenance of power lines in the case of California, or combinations of factors that can lead to massive infernos.
California is particularly prone to seasons of drought a deluge, and one of the people interviewed by The Bee, Hugh Safford, chief scientist of Vibrant Planet and faculty of the UC Davis Department of Environmental Science and Policy, admits as much when he says “California has the highest inter-annual variability and precipitation of any state[.]” Safford says it’s “normal to go from a record wet year to a record, or nearly record, dry year and that’s just the way it is.” This is completely true, and is in line with what Climate Realism has reported regarding California weather history, explained in detail in “Mega-droughts and Mega-floods in the West All Occurred Well Before ‘climate change’ Was Blamed for Every Weather Event,” by meteorologist Anthony Watts.
The Sacramento Bee and the scientists they interviewed are probably right to hesitate to attribute two years of mild fire seasons to climate change, however they should practice the same caution when conditions are inevitably reversed at some point. The Bee does conclude its post by saying the state is doing better about fire prevention. They also quote California Fire’s assistant chief, who tells the public to maintain their properties to prevent the spread of potential fires. This is actually useful advice, and instead of blaming fires on human carbon dioxide emissions, they should pressure local governments to likewise take more initiative on clearing brush, logging dead trees, and other preventative measures.
Linnea Lueken is a Research Fellow with the Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy. While she was an intern with The Heartland Institute in 2018, she co-authored a Heartland Institute Policy Brief “Debunking Four Persistent Myths About Hydraulic Fracturing.”
It doesn’t fit their narrative.
Gander meet goose.
Just ever so slightly scratch the surface though and you discover a festering warmest infection regardless of this seemingly balanced article. Remember most people don’t have clue about any of this stuff.
I just heard another 30 second blip on the radio during the hourly news claiming scientists have “ confirmed” that higher Atlantic temps have caused rapid intensification of hurricanes. But remarkably enough did nt go so far as to blame “ climate change. But you know what their thinking.
Not just logging dead trees- but logging live trees- in thinning projects. It’s called silviculture: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silviculture
I accept the idea that in National Parks, little to no vegetation mgt. should be done unless there is a risk to nearby communities. But outside those parks, mgt. of the forests is smart and productive. Where do people think wood products come from? Some of that removed wood (that has no value for lumber or furniture or paper) and brush can be burned in CHP facilities. My understanding is that CA used to have quite a few but now most are gone. The city of Burlington, VT benefits from a CHP facility and that benefits forestry in the region for being a market for “junk wood”. See: https://www.burlingtonelectric.com/mcneil/
Forest/range mgt. will include controlled burns. A whole lot cheaper than fighting massive fires. They need to be done on a continuous basis year after year.
Really big out of control fires are very rare in the American southeast coastal plain, what is often called “the wood basket of the world”. And it’s a lot hotter there than CA! Forestry is one of the most important industries in that region. Using controlled burns is a standard procedure in the region.
Here in the Northern Rockies in MT there are only 3 sawmills still in operation, and the operators
have a difficult time getting timber from the National Forest due to the lawfare from several
enviro-radiacal groups who reportedly make many millions from these lawsuits. The federal judges
seem to rubber stamp anything that comes across their desk. Even prescribed burns are being
stopped by these radicals. Their board members go back to the Earth First!! groups who were
considered to be terrorist organizations by the federal government from their criminal behavior
such as tree spiking and arson. Now under the present administration they run these federal
units such as Tracy Stone-Manning from Missoula who was involved in a tree spiking incident
that killed a sawmill worker..The forests are a mess in my area and it’s due to the actions of radical’s such as the Biden. The last time I traveled through Lincoln MT to Helena on highway
279 I stopped at the top of Flescher Pass and hiked to the top of the ridge to the north.
From that vantage point in every direction the forest was brown as far as I could see. All
fir as the pine died during the beetle kill din the ’06-07 time. On the east side of the pass
there is a section of private timber ground that has been properly managed and it is green
and healthy. It’s easy to tell government timber ground from private in this area, green is
private and dead is government. The same groups behind the climate change narrative
are also the ones preventing forest management.
I understand completely- see my post below. The ironic twist to my “ environmentalist story, is that I discovered my great and great great grandparents on my moms side of the family were all in the logging and milling business in NC and MD in the 1700 and 1800s and managed the land very well long before the modern “ environmentalists”
“The same groups behind the climate change narrative are also the ones preventing forest management.”
Absolutely true!
Regarding the VT facility, “The wood used is harvested primarily in Vermont and upstate New York within a 60-70 mile radius of the plant. “
A study for such a system was done for a facility within the county (Kittitas WA) where I live. They determined that after a few years of operation (I’ve forgotten the number) the supply-shed would have to expand because the natural growth would not be enough. The two big issues were that (1) a third or more of the area is steppe, not forest, and (2) reduced logging contracts in the National Forests that are near.
There is a scale issue with these facilities that has to be reached. Otherwise, they would need a continuing subsidy. A thought: that might be justified in the interest of fire reduction.
A century ago….newspapers had some influence….today they are pretty much irrelevant…this Bee has no stinger.
This is slightly off subject but might relate to the mind set that developed from the 60s and 70s pop culture. I and my parents went through a sort of “Mother Earths News” home steading phase in the 70 s. What I found out the hard way was that most of the writers were well meaning hippies and environmentalists and not really professionals in the farming field.
One of the over arching themes was don’t fight nature, don’t cut your grass ,don’t worry about all those vines, prickles ,weeds underbrush encroaching on your homestead. Big mistake. Should have hooked up the brush hog and let the goats loose sooner.
And I am still paying the price as I am finally coming to the end of a 20 year battle against some bamboo that was allowed to “ run free” nestled in the inaccessible overgrowth many years ago down by our tidal water front. ( can’t use heavy equipment down there- zoning, EPA etc unstable creek bank)I have darn near crippled myself trying to save our property ( and the neighbors property)
“the mind set that developed from the 60s and 70s pop culture.”
But in which section of society. I grew up in working class Battersea and nobody but nobody had any ideas about Mother Earth. They got down to Motown, The Faces, Hendrix etc etc etc but nobody was a pagan.
No, this thinking occurred elsewhere, among the people who hobnailed the Labour movement.
If you grew up in the 60/70s I don’t know how you could miss all the tree hugging, back to nature, massive environmental movement, organic farming, worry about pesticides etc etc, culture is more than music and ball games. But maybe in Brooklyn nothing else matters- not that that’s a bad thing.
Although I heard Brooklyn NY got “ gentrified” by YUPI types – and now though the whole city turning into to a woke hell hole that quick. – self destruction
YUP! Most of those espousing some kind of ‘natural’ direction have no idea of what they are talking about, they have no experience, but it feels good for them to voice it and us little peasants are just supposed to get out there and MAKE it work for our own good, while the hippie types live in the city.
Some of the “natural” practices in farming are very good. It just depends on the
circumstances. A neighbor of mine is a young man, an engineer by trade, who has
been hit hard by the farming lifestyle, and is quite successful. On one hand he has state of
the art equipment aka the smart tractors/swathers and such and on the other hand he
has adopted some practices such as using manure in unorthodox methods and mixed species plantings to enhance some of this farm ground and forage production. It’s what is being taught
at the local ag university. I’ve done some of the same in the range management
arena with prescribed grazing with sheep and goats. I got started by a professor
and a couple of range scientist’s thru their published results.
At first some of the locals thought I was smoking the
weeds but after watching my success some of the larger local producers followed suit..It just
depends.
They’re all quite unhinged, now. And with madness in mind…
Way off topic, but even the sternest sceptic can get bogged down by the nihilism of the climate brigade every now and again, so to lighten things up…. Did you know, there was a time when many famous stars lived secretly in a London suburb?
Take Mick Jagger, Keith Richard, and Joe Pesci. Keith and Mick went into retail with a corner shop…
Here in Michigan sometimes the park managers will set the park on fire in May just to burn off the thatch, to promote greener growth, the trees never burn, it is just a slow low fire in the dead leaves.
Website below states that over 150 arrests for arson were made in California last year. I was a bit surprised when it said only 10% of the arson cases were due to wildfires. I would have thought that the wildfire percentage would have been higher, but I guess a lot of the wildfires were accidental as well.
https://tinyurl.com/3fm6jc56
“As of Oct. 31, CAL FIRE has made 151 arson arrests statewide, surpassing the 149 statewide arrests in 2021.”
“Muschetto said that arson accounts for 10% of wildland fires each year.”
A study in the recent past showed that about 84% of wildfires are the result of something humans do or have done. Arson is a small part. In the past 2 years, fires near me were started when trucks began to burn while on an Interstate Highway. The drivers moved to the side of the pavement and grass caught on fire. Strong winds caused the expansion to serious burns. This is just one of a hundred things that ignite fires.
https://ktla.com/news/california/humans-to-blame-for-about-90-of-wildfire-ignitions-report-finds
In order to address this, perhaps arson should be decriminalized.
“It’s almost as if an average is made up of higher-than-average years and lower-than-average years.” [Linnea L.]
That is good for an early morning chuckle. 🙂
Writers for The Bee skipped arithmetic in favor of finger painting.
Those of us that made it through 2nd semester arithmetic appreciate your style.
As long as the Marxists control the MSM there will be no factual reporting contrary to their narrative. Internet news is going the same way as they buy out the Conservative programs, remove their funding, or legislate them out of existence. In America we may have to go back to distributing pamphlets to get the word out.
When government run academic and government bureaucrat “experts” are wrong, do they give up their expert status as reported in media stories? If not, why not? I get paid in my profession to add value to the end product to keep the customers happy. If I don’t do that, my company WILL fire me. Shouldn’t all the governmental “experts” be held to the same standards?
If it’s bad, it’s climate change. If it’s good, they either claim credit or ignore it.
Start of 2nd last paragraph
“California is particularly prone to seasons of drought a deluge”
Linnea… what is that meant to say, please?
Likely a typo meant to be “seasons of drought or deluge”?
And of course, we all know that either is “perpetual” for any given year. 😎
To paraphrase an old commercial, “The “Climate Change” card. Don’t write a story without it!”
It is very hard to be positive about anything you read in the press no matter what they say. They have lost all credibility.
I suppose it seems picky of me to point out that figure 1 is (a) 4 years out of date and (b) doesn’t specify where the burned area is (California, CONUS or what?).
But being rigorous with data and its presentation really is a requirement for those of us who claim to occupy the scientific and intellectual high ground.
California is six months of mud, six months of dust.
Mark Twain wrote about the weather in N. California in his book Roughing It. It’s pretty much just like today, wear a coat in San Francisco and sweat all day in Sacramento.