MATT RIDLEY: The official true cost of net zero is the same as spending £1 a SECOND for the next 31,000 years!

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

The truth is out. An official report has admitted for the first time the scale of the cost of reaching net zero by 2050.


A study by the National Infrastructure Commission, released on Tuesday, concluded that hitting the 2050 target will roughly double the amount of money we would have spent anyway on infrastructure over the next 27 years to £2 trillion: an additional £1 trillion spent on the green agenda.


For a word that skips off the tongue so easily, a trillion is mighty big. Imagine you were to spend a pound a second: how long would it take you to spend £1 trillion? The answer is more than 31,000 years.
So to have spent a trillion pounds by today at the rate of £1 a second, you would have to have started when woolly mammoths roamed free.
Most of that trillion will go on replacing petrol cars with electric ones and gas boilers with electric heat pumps, and on generating, transmitting and distributing the extra electricity needed for these two uses. It also includes a host of other capital projects, including better household insulation. With all that electric demand, we would need extra power stations, extra pylons and upgrades of household electrical circuits. And we would need subsidies for installing the heat pumps and buying electric vehicles.
Oh, and £74 billion would be spent on closing down the gas grid: the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC), which was set up to promote economic growth, has been so captured by the green lobby that it is now a National Dismantling Commission.
With the exception of home insulation, very little of that £1 trillion would actually improve your lifestyle in any practical way. It does not promise to give you cheaper or more reliable electricity. It would not save you any money or give you any more spare time — or make you more productive.
It would generally replace smaller things with bigger things — more pylons, heavier cars, bigger radiators, wind farms instead of gas turbines — so it would actually clutter the world more.
It’s not like the fortunes we spent setting up the railways in the 1840s or the electricity grid in the 1950s or the internet in the 1990s. These gave us something new and useful. Net zero merely gives us exactly the same product in a different way.
The NIC claims pursuing net zero will provide energy in a cheaper, more reliable and more secure way, but this is nonsense: as I have written on these pages before, going back to coal would deliver those goals, whereas wind farms don’t work when the wind does not blow and heat pumps don’t work as well in very cold weather. In effect, therefore, we would get a lower-quality product.
So it’s like replacing all the UK’s coffee shops with more expensive, bigger ones that serve exactly the same coffee and have slightly longer queues. The £1 trillion spent on this, of course, is money we would not be able to spend on schools and hospitals.
This point seems to be lost on almost all our politicians who persist in implying that somehow building a lot of larger coffee shops to replace all the Starbucks and Costas would make us all richer.
‘The economic benefits of net zero far outstrip the investment required,’ intoned Theresa May at the Tory party conference. Earth to Theresa: investing in something is a cost, not a benefit. The benefit comes from the improved product your investment generates, if any.
That is not to say nobody benefits from all this spending. Net zero is proving very effective at rewarding the few at the expense of the many. Those who finance, plan, build and sell these decarbonised products and services (which includes lots of Chinese firms) are making out like bandits. As are those who preach about them. The rest of us are going to be paying for it all.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-12646841/MATT-RIDLEY-official-true-cost-net-zero-spending-1-SECOND-31-000-years.html?ico=topics_pagination_desktop&mc_cid=6ffbc99d7f&mc_eid=4961da7cb1

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observa
October 20, 2023 2:15 am
strativarius
October 20, 2023 2:38 am

“For a word that skips off the tongue so easily, a trillion is mighty big.”

Two other words that trip more than easily off the tongues of the faithful are Net and Zero. They’re utterly convinced – it is legally binding, so therefore – it can be done. Just don’t forget to breathe.

The truth is… contested. Take the all too obvious war against the motorist. Recently I commented on trying to get to Brixton tube station. Brixton Hill was closed. I tried to go round and got caught in LTNs which sent me round and round in circles and you have to give it up; there simply is no way through.

“The war on motorists: the secret history of a myth as old as cars …” – The Guardian
“Don’t they know there’s a war against motorists on?” – Financial Times
“War on motorist a myth says left of centre think tank – The Telegraph”
“The ‘war on motorists’ is a myth – Politics.co.uk”

Is it really?

strativarius
Reply to  strativarius
October 20, 2023 2:42 am

Hit the replay button – strange link.

Reply to  strativarius
October 20, 2023 4:08 am

What is an LTN?

Reply to  Tom Abbott
October 20, 2023 5:35 am

Low Traffic Neighbourhood

Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
October 20, 2023 2:59 pm

Thanks. I’m glad I didn’t know what it meant. 🙂

Reply to  Tom Abbott
October 20, 2023 4:10 pm

You need to slow down, Tom….. Watch it! That was a speed bump.

strativarius
Reply to  observa
October 20, 2023 4:42 am

and be happy-“

A COUPLE have been slapped with a whopping £17,000 Tesla bill after their car battery was damaged in the rain.
Johnny Bacigalupo and Rob Hussey were hit with the massive charge after their £60,000 motor broke down in Edinburgh last weekend.”
https://www.thesun.co.uk/motors/24416787/tesla-edinburgh-battery-rain-break-down/

The battery is the weakest link…..

Scissor
Reply to  strativarius
October 20, 2023 5:14 am

I remember when the bumpers would fall off in the rain.

Reply to  Scissor
October 20, 2023 11:54 am

When it was new my 1969 VW bug could swim across any standing pool of water regardless of the depth. The wheels acted as paddle wheels while the engine compartment was completely sealed. And it only cost $1700…

Reply to  strativarius
October 20, 2023 3:02 pm

This couple isn’t the only one paying these huge repair bills for water getting into the battery.

This situation alone would keep me from buying an electric vehicle. If you can’t drive through rain without the risk of damaging the battery, then the vehicle is worthless.

Walter Sobchak
October 20, 2023 3:10 am

Actually spending 1£/sec. does not exhaust £1 trillion. A capital sum bears interest which must be accounted for to get the true economic cost.

There are 31,536,000 seconds in a year. Spending 1£/sec. is only £31,536,00 per year.

Taking 3% to be the real long term interest rate (i.e. without factoring in inflation) that is the annual interest on £1,051,200,000 which is about 1/1000th of £1 trillion.

To exhaust (amortize) £1 trillion over 30 years, requires an annual payment of £51,019,259,320. or £1,617.81/sec. A shorter ammortization period, which would be appropriate because “renewable” capital equipment has a far shorter useful life than 30 years, would produce a higher spending rate.

Note at this writing £1=$1.21

Reply to  Walter Sobchak
October 20, 2023 5:44 am

A capital bears interest…
BULL MANURE

Sorry, buddy, but there IS NO CAPITAL SUM
Every $ spent per second is BORROWED at about 6%.
Now add up the total sum owed for 31000 YEARS

Walter Sobchak
Reply to  wilpost
October 20, 2023 6:39 am

As I said, all capital bears interest. whether it is owned or borrowed. It all must be amortized over the life span of the assets. 31,000 years is not relevant. We and all of our investments will be dust a lot sooner than that.

From a mathematical point of view 31,000 is not much different than eternity. The rule for the capitalization of a perpetual cash flow is the value equals the payment divided by the capitalization interest rate.

What I was trying to demonstrate is that 1£/sec. is too low by a factor of 1,600.

Reply to  Walter Sobchak
October 20, 2023 10:32 am

“. . . without factoring in inflation. . .”

Wow, that’s a very convenient assumption.

Since the projected £1 trillion will be spent “over 27 years” (per the above article), the true cost in any-year’s constant pounds will depend directly on the actual rate of monetary inflation and/or deflation over that period, which are unknowable.

And, yes, the interest earning potential for a given sum of money over future years is separate from (albeit somewhat linked to) future inflation/deflation, the first sometimes referred to the “imputed cost of money” (ICOM) in the US.

October 20, 2023 3:12 am

Just what:
Electric car = £50,000
Heat pump = £20,000
Homes in UK= 30 million

Thus: £70,000 times 30 million comes to £2.1 Trillion

Just for new cars and heat-pumps.
No leccy to drive them, no smart meters, no phat juicy cables/wires, no substations, no nuffink

Even before cars are NOT = Infrastructure
And by the time your friendly local Irish Traveller has removed the thing ‘for recycling of all that Valuable Copper‘ – neither are heat pumps. They’re already uninsurable because of that.

I really have lost all faith in Matt Ridley – he did appear to be a sensible one but has sold out some where along the line.

(Probably just to a Low Fat & Low Salt Dietthat’s all it takes once old boys get into their 4th or 5th decade)

strativarius
Reply to  Peta of Newark
October 20, 2023 3:18 am

Can you lend me a tenner?

Reply to  strativarius
October 20, 2023 3:38 am
strativarius
Reply to  bnice2000
October 20, 2023 4:17 am

You could have offered me three… But I would accept this – and yes, I know it’s Joe Greens.

bobpjones
Reply to  strativarius
October 20, 2023 4:33 am

Who do you think he is, the loan arranger? 😊

October 20, 2023 3:45 am

So this will be the second story on the BBC Lunchtime News today, then.

Aye, right.

James Snook
October 20, 2023 4:15 am

Mao’s ‘Great Leap Forward’ on steroids.
Inevitable result: economic purgatory and pain for the populace.

October 20, 2023 4:33 am

The NIC claims pursuing net zero will provide energy in a cheaper, more reliable and more secure way, but this is nonsense…

hmmm… spend trillions to save money… makes sense 🙂

By the way, last fall and this fall- I’ve had several solar panel sales persons come to my home- I don’t let them give me the pitch- I say, “I don’t want your sales pitch- give me your business card, I’ll research your firm- then maybe get back to you”.

In ALL cases, their reply is “oh, we don’t have business cards- that wouldn’t be green, you know, a waste of paper”. That’s when I look at them as if I’m going to kick their asses- while raising my voice and saying “get lost”.

strativarius
October 20, 2023 4:48 am

Whether it’s the weather, or any other perceived threats the elites are ever keen to remind us.

And just in case your mind wandered off into wrongthink or even crimethink here’s another reminder of why we…. er, need them

Scissor
Reply to  strativarius
October 20, 2023 5:19 am

Some people are on booster 8.

Neil Lock
October 20, 2023 4:53 am

Even worse, the UK government have quite deliberately connived, ever since 2006, to make it impossible to do proper cost-benefit analysis on Net Zero or anything else that involves CO2 emissions. In 2020, they even changed the “green book,” which is supposed to define the procedures for cost-benefit analysis on government projects, to exclude “strategic” projects, specifically including net zero, from any requirement for cost-benefit analysis!

Epping Blogger
October 20, 2023 4:54 am

Matt Ridley was too generous to the Net Zero concept. A mistake often made in the belief it will, somehow, make your case seem more reasonable to your opponents, who will never agree.

The truth is the measures now being implemented have already made us worse off both financially and in security terms. Our countryside is littered with ugly windmills and will soon get lot more pylons; wild birds and bats are chewed up and danerous chemicals are all around us with no plans for disposal in the near future.

Farm land is being used for solar panels so food cannot be grown and rural employment drops (solar panels need infrequent attention and they are built and will be removed or replaced by incomers), domestic food production drops. The pleasure of looking at and walking in the countryside changes to an industrial scene.

October 20, 2023 5:31 am

Of the billions spent to date on climate alarmism and nut zero, how much has benefitted individuals? Who are those individuals? Follow the money, follow the stench of corruption

October 20, 2023 5:37 am

A study by the National Infrastructure Commission, released on Tuesday, concluded that hitting the 2050 target will roughly double the amount of money we would have spent 

Unless the contracts for supply of all the gear is signed with China and production slots agreed , this is just more fantasy numbers.

UK does not have the technical capacity to make the stuff required. It takes a lot of coal to make all the stuff demanded of net zero and China is one of the few places that has no reservations about burning coal as well as the proven capacity tome all the gear required..

Janice Moore
Reply to  RickWill
October 20, 2023 10:09 am

And, since the U.K. doesn’t HAVE that kind of money available, China will take as security: England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland.

And in the production of all that JUNK, they will keep on enriching the atmosphere with life-giving CO2 at an even faster rate than they currently are.

October 20, 2023 6:01 am

From the report itself (Executive Summary, emphasis mine):

The costs as well as the benefits of transforming the UK’s infrastructure will be borne by the public as taxpayers and billpayers. But making these investments will help lower costs for households and keep them lower in the longer term. 

Don’t see any reference to this part in Matt Ridley’s article. Funny that. Is he still in receipt of payments from the surface coal mine that operates on his land?

Dave Andrews
Reply to  TheFinalNail
October 20, 2023 8:00 am

People have been saying for years and years that unreliable energy is going to bring down the cost of electricity. Funny how electricity bills kept rising all this time. The UK National Infrastructure Commission is as committed to Net Zero as western governments and that statement is one that can never be verified. They are asking for massive increases in spending now to bring down costs in the future – baloney!

The UK has over 10,000 pages of reports, consultations and white papers on Net Zero. It is impossible for anyone to understand all of that and translate it into a coherent and deliverable policy.

Go do some reading.

https://dieterhelm.co.uk/publications/net-zero-electricity-the-uk–2035-target/

Dave Andrews
Reply to  Dave Andrews
October 20, 2023 9:31 am

Should have added: The NIC want to decommission the gas network and go to total unreliable energy. Current prices of energy in UK are 7p per kWh for gas and 27p per kWh for electricity inclusive of VAT

Janice Moore
Reply to  TheFinalNail
October 20, 2023 10:15 am

(using Ridley’s figures)

Those households must spent £37,000 to “save” money.

“Net Zero” in one word: SCAM (to benefit solar and wind and heat pump makers, et al.).

Reply to  Janice Moore
October 20, 2023 4:06 pm

(using Ridley’s figures)

Quite. Not the report’s figures.

Reply to  TheFinalNail
October 21, 2023 6:09 am

Tell us how much you think it will cost the average UK household to acquire a heat pump and an EV.

Janice Moore
Reply to  TheFinalNail
October 20, 2023 10:20 am

Re: possible coal mine profits

I HOPE SO! Coal is good.

Reply to  Janice Moore
October 20, 2023 4:08 pm

Well, when you own land with a coal mine on it and you get payments from that then it’s certainly an incentive; whether it’s ‘good’ or not is a question of perspective.

Reply to  TheFinalNail
October 20, 2023 12:27 pm

making these investments will help lower costs

Objection, assumes facts not in evidence.

Reply to  Tony_G
October 20, 2023 5:08 pm

Take that up with the report’s authors. I was only quoting them in context, unlike Ridley.

Reply to  TheFinalNail
October 21, 2023 12:57 pm

“I was only quoting them in context”

“Emphasis mine” you were not “only” quoting them, you were emphasizing a specific part. There is no evidence for the part you emphasized.

Reply to  TheFinalNail
October 21, 2023 6:07 am

Why don’t you shell out 37 grand of your own money on heat pumps and an EV, then get back to us about how much money you’ve “saved”?

October 20, 2023 6:44 am

At this moment Westinghouse is de-commissioning and disassembling nuclear plants in at least 9 countries. It would seem likely that at a few of these power houses could be updated or repaired to allow them to remain on-line, at less expense than tearing them down. Utility companies, at least in the US, are allowed to compute their rates according to their costs and expenses. What indications are there that show that it’s more economical to build a network of wind mills or solar panels over repairing and maintaining a nuclear facility? It’s actually the case that the more utilities spend, the more they are able to charge for their product.

Once again, the actual science involved is irrelevant. Nuclear power safely produces and distributes electricity all over the country now but has an unearned unfavorable reputation and is being dismissed from discussions of “renewable” power. Continuing its use isn’t important to the impossible “Net Zero” goal. Rather, its an established technology that should adopt, by changes in technology through research, practices that would make it even safer and more economical. Abandoning a successful existing technology for the unproven wind turbine and solar panel conglomeration is an incredible mistake.

While the push for the ephemeral “Net Zero” will be abandoned in the near future in any case, creating an industry for the disposal of solar panels and defective wind turbines, there’s no real reason to retreat from nuclear power. Even the problem of the disposal of nuclear waste would be solved if the US Congress got off its rear.

Elec_Engineer
October 20, 2023 9:07 am

Missing the most important point! The entire UK, being .75% of world, going to Net Zero will make 0.00000% difference in global CO2 levels given China, India, Africa and S. America will be fossil consuming at full tilt. Title of the report should have been : UK Cannot “Do Anything Useful on CO2 but We Have To Do Something” with a subtitle of Making UK Feel Good About Itself!

Janice Moore
Reply to  Elec_Engineer
October 20, 2023 10:18 am

Yes. Furthermore, since China or India or other coal-power economies must produce all that junk, “Net Zero” results in more CO2 emissions enriching the atmosphere (and that would be, of course, a good thing).

October 20, 2023 9:18 am

Story tip
https://www.energylivenews.com/2023/10/20/net-zero-is-not-an-obligation-to-be-managed-but-an-opportunity-to-be-seized/

Milliband is not a person you want anywhere near your nations energy – he is incompetent at best, another with net zero energy, engineering or economics competency, yet he could be the UKs next Energy Minister – my god, how far have we fallen

Reply to  Energywise
October 21, 2023 6:10 am

Milliband couldn’t run a sweetshop.

October 20, 2023 10:08 am

OK, I’ll just accept the projection that Net Zero in the UK will cost £1 trillion over the next 27 years (although I think that is a very optimistic projection).

If it is to be truly net zero (emissions from use of fossil fuels), here are just a few of “non-monetary” aspects of going there:

— elimination of UK production and use of private, commercial and military aircraft (battery powered commercial aircraft will not exist for a least the next 100 years, if ever, IMHO)

— elimination of UK production and use of commercial and military ocean-going marine vessels that would use fossil fuels (battery powered ocean vessels are impractical and it would take a truly massive proliferation of nuclear reactors to convert the UK’s ocean-going fleet of vessels over to nuclear power . . . regressing back to wind power?, surely you jest!)

— either a massive reduction in UK-produced pharmaceutical drugs or a massive increase in their price due to cutbacks in the petroleum feedstock supply, a refined portion of which is used as the basis of chemically forming most drug compounds, and widespread shutdowns of UK-based refineries

So, even assuming there is a successful implementation of “farming” green solar energy and green wind energy across the UK to meet its electrical energy demands (with the necessary inclusion of more than a few new nuclear power plants thrown in to stabilize the grid against green’s unavoidable intermittency), the UK will rapidly become equivalent to a third rate world power upon achieving Net Zero.

Something along the line of “unintended consequences” here.

ResourceGuy
October 20, 2023 10:18 am

You definitely won’t make it that long.

Coeur de Lion
October 20, 2023 10:42 am

How about getting the truth out there that CO2 doesn’t have any effect on the climate?

Elec_Engineer
Reply to  Coeur de Lion
October 21, 2023 9:38 am

Unfortunately truth and fact often have little to do with each other. The educational research industry has become so large that CO2 driven climate change is now settled science in the single most important discipline of science, political science.

October 20, 2023 10:57 am

Bloomberg’s green-energy research team estimated it would cost $US 200 Trillion to stop Global Warming by 2050. 

There is only $US40 trillion in cash, checking, and savings in the world.

There are about 2 billion households in the world, that is $US 100,000 per household. 

Ninety percent of the world’s households can’t afford anything additional so the households in developed nations will have to pay 10 times as much to cover it.

That means about $US 1 million per household in developed countries or about $US 33,000 per year for 30 years. The working people can’t afford anything near that. 

The millionaires and billionaires have about $US 208 billion. That would cover it, but they won’t give up their wealth.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-07-05/-200-trillion-is-needed-to-stop-global-warming-that-s-a-bargain#xj4y7vzkg

Of course, the Earth is still in a 2.55 million-year ice age named the Quaternary Glaciation, 20% of the land is frozen, and it snows ice crystals every year.

Reply to  scvblwxq
October 20, 2023 1:25 pm

“Bloomberg’s green-energy research team estimated it would cost $US 200 Trillion to stop Global Warming by 2050.”

Uhhhh . . . did Bloomberg happen to mention exactly who is going to be paying the bribes to:
— China
— India
— Russia
— Iran
— Indonesia
— Saudi Arabia
— etc.
for them to “stop Global Warming”, even under the absurd speculation that it is mankind’s emissions of CO2 from burning fossil fuels that is the cause of global warming . . . something that is easily falsified by paleoclimatology science.

Bloomberg: big on words, starved on science.

October 20, 2023 11:11 am

That’s just the monetary cost.
The enormous cost in the form of human suffering from global food and energy shortages, as well as the tremendous environmental damage from using wind, solar and batteries is infinitely greater than that and well beyond what can be measured in monetary terms.

Reply to  Mike Maguire
October 21, 2023 6:13 am

We have a good analogy for Net Zero, and it’s Mao’s Great Leap Forward, in which tens of millions of Chinese starved to death.

ResourceGuy
October 20, 2023 1:02 pm

Meanwhile you can see the cost of looking in all the wrong places.

story tip

World Needs $7 Trillion to Avoid Gas Shortage, Says Japan Think Tank (yahoo.com)

Edward Katz
October 20, 2023 2:03 pm

People can rest assured that all the countries of the world aren’t going to spend anywhere near such a figure. Governments, businesses, industries and consumers often make foolish choices, but they won’t go as far as the above figures.

ResourceGuy
October 20, 2023 5:15 pm

The US budget deficit in the just completed fiscal year is $1.7 trillion, up 23% over last year, with the economy about to slow. Good luck world.

Bob
October 20, 2023 7:46 pm

I struggle with articles like this. While it is true that net zero is unaffordable that is not the point. The point is net zero is unnecessary and a complete fiction.

Reply to  Bob
October 21, 2023 6:15 am

Net Zero is a pretext for domination and control of the populace by the elites.