From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
h/t Jon Seward
In the United Kingdom, responsibilities for planning and managing the risks associated with coastal flooding and erosion are a bit of a mish mash, with DEFRA, the Environment Agency and local authorities all involved, usually on a non-statutory basis. Nevertheless there is a presumption that coastal communities cannot be protected at any cost. As The EA’s James Bevan proclaimed last year:
“Climate change is happening now, and its impacts will continue to worsen. Rainfall patterns are changing, causing more frequent flooding, and while we continue to protect and prepare coastal communities from rising sea levels, it is inevitable that at some point some of our communities will have to move back from the coast”
The reality is that this has always been the case of course!
In England, the Flood and Water Management Act 2010 set out the requirement for a national framework for managing risk to be issued by the national environmental regulator, the Environment Agency. The current version of this framework has been set out in “Understanding the risks, empowering communities, building resilience: The national flood and coastal erosion risk management strategy for England” (Environment Agency, 2011). This sets out a high-level framework which empowers various actors to plan for and manage risk, including future pressures such as sea-level rise (SLR).
The key vehicle for strategic planning of coastal erosion risks in England has been the shoreline management plan (SMP). This is overseen by a coastal erosion risk management authority, a local authority whose functions include planning shoreline management activities with input from the Environment Agency and the delivery of coastal erosion risk management activities (using powers under a range of legislation). The SMP is a local strategic plan put together by groups of key stakeholders in defined coastal areas. First-generation plans were issued in 1996, and the current second-generation plans were generally completed in 2009. The SMPs take account of future projections of SLR driven by climate change.
Pay particular attention to that last sentence – the SMPs take account of future projections of SLR driven by climate change.
In 2012, a Shoreline Management Plan (SMP) was drawn up for the Norfolk coastline by a group including the EA and local councils:
https://www.eastangliacoastalgroup.org/smp-6
The SMP recognised the historical perspective, and stated that no coastal defences can stop these natural processes, merely delay them:
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Nevertheless, coastal defences can play a valuable short term role, but it is then a matter of cost:
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Note that they assume that the cost of maintaining existing defences is forecast to rise significantly. This of course then affects the cost/benefit ratio of any scheme.
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I should point out at this stage that it is about a lot more then money. For instance, sediment from erosion from places like Happisburgh is to a large extent swept to other areas of the coast, such as Sheringham, Cromer and Great Yarmouth. (It is probably no coincidence that these towns have developed over the years).
So it would make no sense saving a few houses in Happisburgh, if it was at the expense of Sheringham, something the plan emphasises. Moreover messing with nature often has unexpected consequences – in Happisburgh’s case, the development of a promontory, which could interrupt the transfer of sediment and push it offshore:
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Nevertheless, the economic decisions ultimately come down to costs and benefits.
The costs are expected to rise sharply because of the projected sea level rise, meaning that bigger defences must be built.
And the SMP tells us exactly what that projection is:
The plan notes that the Table also includes the Defra 2003 recommendation for consideration of sea level rise, which has been used in the SMP assessments. In other words, 6mm/year.
But this figure clearly is not credible, given that sea levels in the region have been rising at less than half that rate, and with no acceleration. Indeed since the SMP was written in 2012, sea levels at Lowestoft have risen at only 1.0mm/year.
If a realistic sea level rise had been factored in, would the SMP recommendations have been any different. I don’t know.
But the residents of Happisburgh and all those other communities along the Norfolk coastline deserve to be told.
FOOTNOTE
To put the scale of the problem into perspective, along the whole of the coastline between Kelling to Lowestoft, basically all of the Norfolk coast and part of Suffolk, the plan reckons that the number of housing losses by 2055 could be between 80 and 1000.
Given the faulty sea level assumptions, the likely figure is at the bottom end.
Assuming 80 homes, and at say £200,000 a house, residents could be moved into new homes a few miles inland for a cost of £16 million, spread over a decade or two. I suspect that would be a lot cheaper than playing at King Canute!
For more information go to our sea level page at EverythingClimate.com
That sort of geology will always retreat, and blaming global warming is about as relevant as blaming sexual morality. Jerry Falwell blamed New Orleans “morality” for getting flooded, which drew appropriate incredulity. This is on the same order of irrelevance.
In the photo at the top- that cliff looks like mostly clay. If so, no wonder it’s retreating- it’s impossible to not do so. Do you know the history of that deposit? Must be rather young, geologically speaking.
The general layout reminds me of California, with normal being a short seasonal beach with a cliff running along the shoreline. The cliff line will retreat irregularly, but consistently.
From what I do know, that part of Britain was formerly overlooking Doggerland, a lowland comprising several river deltas. That area was submerged at the end of the last ice age.
OK, very interesting. I was a forester for 50 years but as time went by and I purchased many geology text books- I really got to love the science. Forestry was nice so I could spend my life walking in forests- but it’s intellectually very light weight and that’s an understatement. I should have gone into geology. Where I live in western Wokeachusetts- there is a lot of fascinating geology. I purchased a lot of USGS publications on this region- at first had a tough time even reading them but over time it started to make sense.
Sedimentary layers – glacial tills in between sand, clay and silt from the middle Pleistocene overlaying shallow marine deposits of brown sands and clays, with occasional gravel seams. From the British Geological Survey site.
Every bit of the exposed land surface of the Earth erodes constantly, even the hardest rocks like basalt. Softer or unconsolidated materials just erode faster.
The largest/highest mountain range in the Americas used to be what we now call the Appalachian Mountains, which are mere remnants of that ancient range. All due to erosion. And all of that eroded material eventually ended up aggregating in the lowlands, creating erodable river valleys and deltas, or in the Atlantic ocean.
It’s fascinating stuff. The changes the Earth has gone through are near infinitely greater than a degree or so C warming yet we are suppossed to panic and destroy our economy to fix this non problem. Makes me sick every time I see this sh*t in the media or anyone talking to me about it.
Please remember these left wing types are devoid of reason or common sense – they believe what they want to, no matter how unscientific or irrational and no one will change their mind
There have always been storms and flooding along the East Anglian coastline. For example in the 14thC storms in 1305,1328,1334,1341,1343,,1347 and1376/7 damaged the bigger towns such as Dunwich but also devastated many villages and small ports. In April 1446 16 places were inundated and many thousands of lives were lost. Villages of Snitterly, Shipden and Whimpwell (near Happisburgh) and at least a dozen other villages no longer exist
The incestuous relationship between New Orleans and Louisiana Democrat politicians and the Army Core of Engineers was the cause of moving federal funds from New Orleans levies to Yacht Harbor protections for the rich and famous, so, in fact, Jerry was right, the flooding WAS caused by immorality.
word definitions… “cause”
In the town of Youghal, Ireland, along the southern coast, a gate into the old (medieval) harbor is a couple hundred feet inland today. Possibly there was a lot of filling going on, but maybe some sea level drops as well. The whole discussion seems very location specific.
Nothing is static, everything moves. Unless you’re an alarmist, then anything that isn’t static is the fault of humans, and must be “tackled”.
You appear to have left out the most likely explanation: land uplift.
That’s certainly the case at Harlech castle where the sea gate is now a mile away from the sea that used to come right up to the cliffs where the gate is situated.
Correcting EA’s James Bevan’s quoted first sentence in the second paragraph of the above article, as noted in boldface:
“Climate change is happening now, as it always has been, and its impacts will continue to worsen as long as mankind continues to build where it shouldn’t and to farm crops and animals where and when it shouldn’t.
With the length of climate now redefined to be 30 years it is no more than medium-term weather that has always been changing. It would be hard to find many 30-year periods that were exactly like the previous 30 years.
Found on the net.
The geology at Happisburgh comprises a relatively simple, layer-cake sequence of pre-glacial sands, gravels and clays (which occur beneath the beach level) and an overlying glacial sequence comprising tills (stoney clay), laminated clays and sands. Cliff instability occurs due to topples and debris flows within the glacial sands, often exacerbated by periods of prolonged rainfall. Instability also occurs due to direct erosion by waves. To the south of the current beach access, when beach levels are low, a wave-cut platform can develop as a result of direct wave erosion of the overlying glacial clays and sands.
The pre-glacial geology has international significance as it contains archaeological evidence for the earliest humans in northern Europe and the oldest human footprints outside Africa.
“But this figure clearly is not credible, given that sea levels in the region have been rising at less than half that rate, and with no acceleration.”
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Downloading annual data from PSMSL for Lowestoft (1979 datum removed) says the rate since 1956 is 2.7 mm/yr and the acceleration is 0.064 or 0.056 mm.yr² depending on how you arrive at it.
Is 0.06 mm/yr² since 1956 significant?
“””The East Riding coast and peninsula have been receding since they were formed in the Ice Age – and they still are at an average of about two metres a year. At least 35 known settlements have been lost to coastal erosion since Roman times.”””
https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/history/lost-villages-of-yorkshire-abandoned-18241054#google_vignette
All that without any faux climate change
Sea level increases aren’t a problem, just ask Obama, Kerry & Gore – their multimillion waterfront homes are fine
Just ask anyone who has their head screwed on tight.
And they can get insurance
I’d like to see the locations and specifics on these waterfront homes. Any sites I’ve seen reported are either “ocean-view” properties or at least 3 m. (10 ft.) above current high tide, with a beach hundreds of feet away from buildings. Reports I find are all short of specifics.
Here are the birth years: Kerry, 1943; Gore, 1948; Gates, 1955. None is likely to live to 2050. If Gates does, he will be 93.
Yes, I think you’re right…they’re not exactly waterfront like the ones in the illustration at the top of post. We have to be strictly honest in our mention of these, especially the Obama one which is some distance from the beach and above it by several metres I believe. We don’t want or need to adopt the tactics of our devious warmist friends. The truth will out!
The house is located between the 10′ (3m) contour interval and the beach. Likely elevation is about 2.5m above mean higher high water. So he’s got about 8 feet of storm surge protection most of the time. So I suppose ‘several’ may be acceptable, but ‘a few’ would be more appropriate.
Obama(s) are impacted by 100-yr model designations.
I don’t know where Gore or Kerry are.
Gates is safe from ocean and lake water.
Perhaps, being in the know, they just positioned themselves for federal taxpayer relief at multiple times their purchase prices when the time comes.
Story tip
https://climatechangedispatch.com/voters-give-germanys-ruling-green-coalition-a-beating-in-state-elections/
The Germans have had enough of the green con & unfettered immigration – they are saying no, a dish best served cold
A second night of the long knives.
Were the voter changes actually large enough to expect any noticeable difference going forward?
This thing is so foolish, it disgusts me.
The Earth is still in a 2.56 million-year ice age. The SMP must have meant “glacial period.”
The climate is changing. Knock me down with a feather.
Fun fact: Happisburgh is pronounced “Haysbruh” in Norfolk and Suffolk. Not many people know that!
Waht ridiculous nonsense. The Dutch have been protecting coastlines with various defenses including dikes for over 1,000 years. By 1250 approximately, the sea dikes formed a continuous barrier around the country. At that point, they began moving the barriers steadily into the North Sea, reclaiming land.
All this was achieved with nothing more than human and animal physical labour. So this bit is simply false.
“The SMP recognised the historical perspective, and stated that no coastal defences can stop these natural processes, merely delay them.”
So what does reclaiming land from the sea mean? Do these people imagine that they can lie about history so blatantly? They are not recognising the historical perspective. These liars are trying to deny what’s been thoroughly documented in the past before the advent of modern pumping equipment and flood control techniques.
It is not rising sea level that “causes” erosion. Erosion (as well as deposition) is caused by the natural forces induced by currents and waves, occasionally accelerated short term by major storms, which of course are not increasing due to global warming, despite the claims by warmunists.
There is nothing static about coastlines, any more than mountain ranges are static things. Or rivers. Or lakes. Every part of the earth’s surface is constantly undergoing motion, laterally, and vertically.
The need to “protect” coastlines is only a human created need … to defend coastal property values and infrastructure. It is not the Earth that needs defending from itself and its own natural processes that have been ongoing for the last 4.6 billion years.
Meanwhile, on the other side of England, it’s the opposite story.
A Southport newspaper made the following request in September 2015:
IF you see the sea come into Southport – please send us your pictures!https://www.southportvisiter.co.uk/news/southport-west-lancs/sea-finally-due-come-southport-10154304
The island of Great Britain has been tipping down by the South East for centuries.
I read years ago that the groins built into the sea to protect beaches from erosion in Victorian times, when the railways made seaside trips and holidays popular, interfered with the natural movement of silt around the coastline, which whilst protecting some beaches, resulted in loss of coastline washed away with nothing coming down the coast to replace what was lost.
The Cinque Port of Rye, was surrounded by the sea in Medieval times, but is now two miles away. Climate change I suppose.
In the mid-60s, 22Km of the soft eroding East Anglian coast around Happisburgh was protected by 110 steel-piled 100m groynes spaced every 200m and connected by 200m x 3m sloping boarded revetment (see Google Earth of the area).
With the release, in 1990, of the first IPCC report projecting accelerating sea level rise (SLR), the Government became so concerned by the cost of protecting the UK coast they removed coast protection from the National Rivers Authority and formed, in 1995, the Environment Agency to take control of sea defence.
Before waiting for definitive evidence of the IPCC’s modelled SLR acceleration and increasing storminess (of which there is still no evidence), the Government increased the ‘Benefit Cost Ratio’ (BCR) by a draconian eightfold over the NRA’s 1990 BCR of 1:1.06 to 8:1 for the construction and maintenance of all new and existing sea defences.
Thus, at a stroke, large sections (over 350miles) of rural coast of England and Wales (including Happisburgh were the 60’s groynes were starting to fail) were removed from state protection. The full details of the abandonment were delivered in 22 Shoreline Management Plans through a combination of ‘Managed Realignment, ‘No Active Intervention’ and ‘Withdrawal of Maintenance.
It’s not Climate Change, it’s an unevidenced eightfold increase in BCR that is causing the houses to fall into the sea!
“The key vehicle for strategic planning … has been the shoreline management plan (SMP)… overseen by a coastal erosion risk management authority… with input from the Environment Agency”
Lots of smart people not working on something else.
I won’t replicate the error of assigning them to more important tasks- I don’t pay them and I don’t know what important tasks are not being done. But someone knows.
This story is nonsense. I live not far from here and it has been eroding for centuries, long before supposed climate change. See attached, apologies for watermark.