From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
It seems an age since we had a couple of weeks of nice weather in June, which naturally had the Met Office leaping up and down to blame on climate change:
June has been confirmed as the hottest on record for the UK.
A rapid study by Met Office scientists found the chance of observing a June beating the previous record of 14.9°C, like we have this year, has at least doubled since the period around 1940. The previous record of 14.9°C was recorded in 1940 and 1976.
They knew, of course, that it was not the hottest on record, because they have the Central England Temperature series, and this dates back further their UK records.
And according to CET, June 1846 was more than a degree hotter. It was also hotter in 1676, 1822 and 1826. That, of course, demolished their claims about global warming.
As I pointed out at the time, the average temperature in June was high because of the quirks of the calendar. Relatively warm, sunny weather pretty much lasted all month, before quickly disappearing at the beginning of July. At no stage however did temperatures reach unusually high levels.
The Met Office made a big play of the fact that June 2023 was hotter than 1976, part of the well-known summer of 1976.
It was grossly dishonest to even compare with 1976, because the heatwave only got going in the last week of June that year. When it did get going, temperatures peaked several degrees above this year, and the hot spell lasted well into July:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html
As we can also see, there was another long heatwave in August 1976.
And despite all of that global boiling in June, the summer of 2023 ended up pretty unexceptional, barely above the 30-yr average, no warmer than 1857 and 1859. There have been 38 years with summer temperatures as high or higher.
There is an unmistakeable takeaway from these charts. This is the fact that average summer temperatures continue to fail to beat 1976, even if hot summers have tended to become more common.
And there is a good reason for this – hot summers are the result of dry, sunny weather, not global warming.
In other words, weather, not climate.
Interesting that more extremes appear to occur during cooler times such as the Little Ice Age.
Something to do with wavier jet streams and larger less mobile middle latitude high pressure cells (or rather those pesky modern heat domes).
Hot summers are because of dry sunny weather.
Seems to me that dry sunny weather is perfect for solar generation.
To power society from Solar/Battery warmer summer days would seem to be preferred
Bryan A
“To power society from Solar/Battery warmer summer days would seem to be preferred”
But – not too hot …
Solar panels, I understand, drop in efficiency above about 25 C [which is a nice summer day here in southern England]. The drop may not be great, at first, but still ….
Auto
Solar panels lose efficiency as they get hot. The quoted power output is often stated for a 25 C panel temperature and a typical loss of 0.4% per C above that.
A cold panel will produce more power, this works below 25 C too. So the effect is not just limited to those above the 25 C value.
And of course that big yellow thing in the sky has a lot more to do with it than air temp. Sunlight easily heats a dark surface and in general a panel exposed to direct sunlight will be a lot hotter than the air temp.
If you want to try a little test, stick your palm on a solar panel that is exposed to direct sunlight. Warning, this could result in four letter expletives.
I think solar panels should be rated for their output when typically installed on a roof in 25 C air, this at least would represent reality. Just how much cooling would you need to add to keep the panel at 25 C, (and yes I can work it out, it’s just a thought question).
Hey, don’t be too cheery, now September has arrived we are enjoying a glorious late summer hot spell. This good weather will last a few more days, so no doubt the BBC and other shrills will be advising it is unprecedented. They will clearly ignore the historic term given to late summer hot days here in England, we call it an ‘Indian Summer’ a nod to the days of Empire no doubt when honest opinion was allowed.
We have actually has a real cold summer with more rain than any arable farmer wanted, the reservoirs are as good as full across the whole country which never gets a mention.
A few days of wearing shorts is always welcome here. Let us hope the coming winter is not unprecedented cold. The infrastructure won’t be able to meet the energy demands if that happens.
“don’t be too cheery”
That’s where the kinder come in….
“…the Committee on the Rights of the Child is not really interested in what children think. It is simply ventriloquising children to advance its own beliefs. The report claims that children complained of ‘the negative effects of environmental degradation and climate change on their lives and communities’, and that they ‘asserted their right to live in a clean, healthy and sustainable environment’. The report quotes the children it ‘consulted’ as follows:
‘“The environment is our life.” “Adults [should] stop making decisions for the future they won’t experience. [We] are the key means [of] solving climate change, as it is [our] lives at stake.” “I would like to tell [adults] that we are the future generations and, if you destroy the planet, where will we live?!”’
https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/09/05/the-political-exploitation-of-children/
The children are far from cheery.
Poor children. New pronouns and a few sessions of gender reassignment should cheer them up nicely /s
That is the reason the adults are in charge [children].
You are too young and naive and have been seriously manipulated and indoctrinated. You have no idea what you are talking about but think that makes you [big enough] to decide.
Sorry. Now go tidy your room and don’t come out until it’s done !
Last year was unusually cool in latter September, hopefully it will stay warm for the rest of the month this year.
The only real extreme we’ve experienced is the propaganda.
The whole world is on fire – except north of the jet stream….
It’s coming hot again (it already is) this week – peaked at 28°C here at ‘PE14’ as attached (Peterborough) and 29°C up near Newark.
Two particular reasons, linked and reinforcing each other: (see my reply to self for another image)
1/ Is the remains of Hurricane Franklin, now gently rolling into the Bay of Biscay but coming up against One Humongous Heat Dome
2/ The heat dome is borne of two things:
2.1/ The huge amount of moist warm air (not = hot air) being hoisted by Franklin. It is cooling at altitude and looking for somewhere to descend. The rain and clouds Franklin is creating is keeping him ‘just warm’ but very moist/wet
2.2/ The cold air, at 5 and 6,000 metres above Franklin is being given a perfect route back down to the ground over Europe, as you see in the second image/screenshot
That escape route is being provided by the farmers of Europe who are nearly finished playing with their combine harvesters = bringing home The Harvest
The result of that is that they are leaving behind 100’s of thousands of acres/hectares of bone dry low albedo ‘stubble’
The sun can ‘see straight down to the soil and surface moisture almost instantly evaportes
There are no living plants of any description to capture night-time dew, to store water in the soil nor to transport and sub-surface water into the air – which would create rising air and burst the heat dome.
It is no coincidence that there is an ‘Indian Summer’ is happening here and now and all across Europe – The Farmers made it,## in conjunction with the perfectly timed arrival of (remnants of) Hurricane Franklin
And there are those amongst us who would assert that ‘farmers’ along the coast of West Africa (nor growing chocolate by any chance) who filled the ocean with silt and sediment – thus artificially heating the water there and thus, creating Franklin.
Perfect innit.
see my reply below for more info/explanation
## Do Not misunderstand me. I am NOT blaming the farmers – I am blaming the people who control the farmers = telling them what to grow, where and when to grow it.
i.e. The Sugar Addicts
And addictive behaviours very rarely ‘end well’
second image as promised, this wind a synoptic wind overlay of NE Atlantic.
Franklin is my ‘blue spiral’ and the heat dome is the pink spiral.
Now. tip that image on its side to envisage warm moist air rising through Franklin, cooling as it rises, flowing west as Earth’s rotation would move it and then descending upon the farmer’s stubble fields All Across Europe – heating rapidly as it falls
The perfect Hadley Cell
sigh
flowing *east
I do that, too.
“I am blaming the people who control the farmers = telling them what to grow, where and when to grow it.”
Have you ever read “The Blue Field”, by John Moores? It’s the third of trilogy, set around Tewkesbury. A lovely, gentle series of books. Must find my copies and reread them.
Prove it – provide a list of the top 10 crops grown in Europe or the exact area in Europe that you’re going on about.
I doubt any sugar cane or beets will be on the list.
Be careful with your complaints, or you just might get barley and hops banned – no more beer! All in the name of fighting the epic battle against climate change.
The summer of 1976 remains seared in my memory (pun untended) for so many anecdotal reasons.
The concern at Jersey airport in late June that my end of holiday flight to Heathrow would be overloaded at take off due to low jet engine power in the high temperatures on the short runway.
Then to arrive at Heathrow to even higher temperatures and nights so hot in central London that restful sleep was not possible.
The underground fire in the hollow roots of an elm tree in Kensington Gardens with the soil there baked dry to a depth of 1 metre.
The wholesale wilt and subsequent death in the following year of the massive mature shallow rooted beech tress in Epping forest.
No summer since 1976 has even come close to this.
It was the last time that pubs ran dry.
Bath with a friend was government advice.
And they turned domestic water off and put standpipes in the streets.
All during a time when we were concerned about global cooling.
So far maximum temperatures count, yes. So far as average UK-wide temperatures go, summer 1976 was only the 5th warmest on record. Summer 2022, 2003, 2006 and 2018, in ascending order, were all warmer than 1976 on average. Nights are getting warmer, which is what one would expect with greenhouse forcing.
Stop being silly
You could always check the data for yourself…. but you won’t, will you?
Met Orifice temperatures.. ROFLMAO
Based on urban affected surface sites which are totally unfit for the purpose of “climate”.
Meaningless GARBAGE. !
Nights are getting warmer, which is EXACTLY what would expect from URBAN WARMING.
There is no evidence anywhere that CO2 has any warming effect.
Prove me wrong… or take the headless chook route as you always have before.
Nights are getting warmer is what one would expect from the thermal mass of brick, concrete, asphalt, and steel.
UHI
TheFinalNail is here to troll. Thats why every time you bring up the suspicious surface temperature data, he has no response.
What suspicious surface temperature data? UAH just posted its warmest June to August period on record, both globally and in the NH. Is that suspicious too?
You keep talking about the warmest June on record in the UK. THAT is based on what is likely to be an inhomogeneous, spurious record.
And you are right. It is a fact that world just experienced its warmest summer on record. Your comments however imply that this is somehow off-the-chart scary and that this proves the other side’s point of CAGW. Do you think that .3 spike over the course of one month is something in our control? No, that is obviously of natural origin. Come on dude!
Walter, I honestly don’t know if the clear long-term increase in global temperatures is significant or not.
I think that to deny that it is happening is deeply unhelpful; and that this site in particular strives to do exactly that.
Who benefits from climate change denial?
Who benefits from making a manic panic about it and wasting billions of dollars on “solutions” that don’t work… to a problem that only exists in the febrile, wasted minds of climate cultists.
Now, tell us what we “deny” that you have any actual scientific proof for.
Or continue running around like a headless chook !
“I honestly don’t know”
You honestly don’t know… ANYTHING about climate.. at all. !
“UAH just posted its warmest June“
SO WHAT. !!!
It is still well below most of the last 10,000 years.
Only complete chicken-little child-minds thing there is a problem.
The warming out of the LIA has been greatly beneficial for all life on Earth, as has the enhanced atmospheric CO2.
The iceans are warming too, so….?
Oceans….not ‘iceans’.
On the broader point, how can it be that ocean heat content is increasing, sea surface temperatures are increasing and lower troposphere temperatures globally are increasing if it’s all down to UHI?
Such silliness.
Ocean heat content.
See that little red wiggle at the end.
Well that didn’t work first time.
Here’s the image. Current ocean heat content is well below historic levels.
Your ignorance is showing again !
You do realise the term greenhouse is a reference to that most wonderful building that lets plants & crops successfully grow in colder regions and that accelerate and optimise growth in a warm, CO2 enriched localised atmosphere? You use the term greenhouse as if it’s a bad thing, me, I think it’s a thing of real beauty and helps feed hungry people
I use the term ‘greenhouse’ in the generally understood, if poorly named, scientific sense.
The IPPC state that 60% of anthropogenic co2 has been released since 1990.
Therefore the summer of 1976 occurred with less than half of today’s anthropogenic atmospheric co2.
The economy was 50 years worth of growth smaller (urbanisation) and there was upto 25% less in population.
So, all in all, I think the summer of 76 takes the biscuit.
The summer of 1976 was a localised phenomenon. 1976 was not an especially warm year globally.
Current temperatures are not especially warm globally, either.
Nearly all the last 10,000 years has been warmer than now.
We are very lucky to be living in the Modern Slightly Warm Period.
Or poor thermometer placement.
Why is nights getting warmer a bad thing? Saves on energy bills.
Didn’t say it was a bad thing.
Water vapour is the most important greenhouse forcing. Are you saying this is the most likely cause ? It is also what you would expect with a slight increase in cloud cover.
I suppose just saying ” which is what one would expect ” is enough proof to change the entire world economy and destroy the future of the coming generations. It’s all for the children, right?
The warmer the atmosphere the more water vapour it can hold. CO2 warms the atmosphere, so….
No CO2 does NOT warm the atmosphere.
You have zero evidence of that.
That’d be it…
You obviously concur with my statement of fact.
I didn’t realise you were capable of actually learning anything. !
As you failed to identify a mechanism for the warming you say CO2 does I attach the results of an experiment showing the exact opposite of what you say. Feynman says if the theory doesn’t match experiment then theory wrong. Maybe you are wrong.
Was the cause Tmin or Tmax?
Before leaping to a conclusion, you need all the facts!
Tmin + Tmax divided by two equals average temperature. Has been dine that way for decades.
I am talking from experience and you set out to deny my truth./sarc
No idea what this means?
Figures
Right.
You forget the appointment of a “minister for drought.” A few days afterwards, floods in Devon washed away the stand-pipes. Nature has ways of compensating for its own excesses.
I remember the summer of 1959, too. I got measles at exactly the right time to miss almost the whole of the summer term! Certainly the happiest of my summers.
As to this year, where I am (Surrey) the weather has been complete rubbish all the way through July and August.
Rubbish July and August here in NE Wales too.
We went on holiday to Cornwall the week the weather broke. The M5 was a river.
Yup. Anecdotally, there were school photographs of me for many years afterwards showing my hair to be noticeably blonder/sun-bleached in that summer. (I think we also got to spend a little more time out on the playing fields when the school day was interrupted by hoax IRA bomb threats).
There was also a similar summer I recall in the 1980’s, but by then I lived in the North west, not central Central England. I would say this summer has been remarkably unremarkable.
Ok may be out of place, but this topic sort of set me off a tad.
I am slowly beginning to see the picture here about Climate Change and weather.
If it is several days above the expected normal maximum, it’s Climate Change
If it is several days below the expected minimum, it’s weather.
If you can successfully predict temperature into the far fun future, by dubious models that are pure junk, its Climate Change.
he, as most BoMs try and fail, it’s called weather.
I have also finally come to the conclusion that The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is really about giving governments some form of information, usually ambiguous and derived from odd sources, so said governments and its bureaucrat based departments can downgrade the associated nation into an economic freezing state. All hail lack of power and heating!!
It is through rather odd that it is Europe. UK, USA, Canada and places like Australia that are following this downward spiral..
All hail dumb governments. All hail left leaning dumber governments!!
China, India and Russia will come out look economically better thanks to the Wests idiotic behaviour.
At present I am looking at purchasing a hose and suitable buggy, horse to ride and buggy when I go shopping, if shops have food. By the so called move to renewables in 2035/50 the ability to properly charge an EV or even get fuel for an ICE vehicle will diminish to about zero. Ok there may be some electricity, but I suspect rationed via those wonderful smart meters will limit the EV changing somewhat.
sorry repost as this will not allow editing, for me at least
Ok may be out of place, but this topic sort of set me off a tad.
I am slowly beginning to see the picture here about Climate Change™ and weather.
If it is several days above the expected normal maximum, it’s Climate Change™
If it is several days below the expected minimum, it’s weather.
If you can successfully predict temperature into the far fun future, by dubious models that are pure junk, its Climate Change™.
If you try to predict the temperature into the next 7 days, as most BoMs try and fail, it’s called weather.
I have also finally come to the conclusion that The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is really about giving governments some form of information, usually ambiguous and derived from odd sources, so said governments and its bureaucrat based departments can downgrade the associated nation into a economic freezing state. All hail lack of power and heating!!
It is through rather odd that it is Europe. UK, USA, Canada and places like Australia that are following this downward spiral..
All hail dumb governments. All hail left leaning dumber governments!!
China, India and Russia will come out look economically better thanks to the Wests idiotic behaviour.
At present I am looking at purchasing a hose and suitable buggy, horse to ride and buggy when I go shopping, if shops have food. By the so called move to renewables in 2035/50 the ability to properly charge an EV or even get fuel for an ICE vehicle will diminish to about zero. Ok there may be some electricity, but I suspect rationed via those wonderful smart meters will limit the EV changing somewhat.
How does the UK have a “global” anything? It:s bad enough when Americans claim their small part of the world is the globe.
According to UAH this has been globally the warmest June – August period in it’s 45 year history. And when you consider how localised the heat in 1976 was, it’s not likely they would have shown it as being warmer then.
Warmest (June to August) in UAH records.
2023 0.57
1998 0.40
2020 0.30
2019 0.28
2016 0.26
2022 0.23
2010 0.20
2017 0.19
2021 0.13
2015 0.11
Precisely
Global warming is not global at all
It’s a scam
Ps
You didn’t experience 1976, did you!
Yes.
Obvs not
Must have been a hallucination then.
Warming is mainly in the cities where there is a lot of concrete and asphalt for the sun to heat up. Also the sun is warming the oceans.
WUWT might have to reconsider featuring UAH on its sidebar at this rate!
No they don’t. Because they understand that this summer’s spike was entirely of natural origin.
Unlike the alarmist mob, WUWT looks at the big picture and considers every piece of data and evidence in an empirical, balanced way
Lol, you’re killing me…!
No, it is your feeble little mind that is making your life not worth living. !
You don’t understand “empirical”
You don’t understand “balance”.
You don’t know what “scientific evidence” is.
You don’t comprehend scientific facts and data even remotely.
And you keep choosing to remain that way…
WUWT still hasn’t made the update….. Spencer published the latest UAH update two days ago. (It was bad, if you happen to be in the ‘no warming’ team.)
As I recall, WUWT did this in 2016 too. Simply stopped updating the the UAH data because it was setting record highs. The wrong signal.
Is history repeating itself?
More Hunga-Tonga denial from the real science deniers.
But Antonio says the globe is boiling, it’s even been repeated by MSM
Are you really sweating the fractions of a degree?
Relax and enjoy the nice climate before weather comes by to spoil it.
The contiguous US is 6.7% of the Earth’s land area. If Alaska is included, it’s 7.6%. I’d say that’s a statistically significant chunk of the world.
The problems with your conclusions are:
1) Did the same locations exceed the average in all of the years or did different locations with warm temps chande throughout?
2) was it nighttime temps that caused the increase or daytime or both?
3) Your dismissal of the UK having “global anything” means some locations don’t experience global warming. Please tell us the locations that do and don’t.
“The problems with your conclusions are”
That you don’t like anything that suggests the world didn’t stop warming in 1997?
Funny how you never ask these questions when the same data is being used to make a “pause”?
“Did the same locations exceed the average in all of the years or did different locations with warm temps chande throughout?”
You could always check the data for yourself. You presumably understand the meaning of your question better than I.
But I’d be very surprised if exactly the same locations where hot in every year. That’s the nature of weather – sometimes one place is hot and another place is cold, other times it’s the other way round. That’s why the usual cry of – it was hot in the US in 1936 – therefore there’s been no global warming, is so much nonsense.
“was it nighttime temps that caused the increase or daytime or both?”
Probably both, but you would have to use surface data to see, and then you would whine that it’s all fake.
“Your dismissal of the UK having “global anything” means some locations don’t experience global warming.”
No. It means sometimes it’s hot and some times it’s cold when the rest of the world is different. It still is tending to warm as the globe warms, and that probably isn’t a coincidence.
“Please tell us the locations that do and don’t.”
Are you incapable of figuring these things for yourself? As a clue, here’s the map of GISS summer trends since 1976. A few places round the Antarctic and South America show a cooling trend – most of the rest of the world have been getting warmer.
Created from data that either DOESN’T EXIST or is highly corrupted by urban and airport warming, and manic cult-driven adjustments
The chart is totally MEANINGLESS !
Yes, no where had thermometers outside the UK in 1976.
Once again Paul Homewood conflates CET with UK-wide temperatures in order to obfuscate the scale of the warming in June.
June 2023 was by far the warmest June on record in the UK. The record starts in 1884. It was almost a full degree Celsius warmer than the previous June record, which was shared between 1940 and 1976.
In CET, which covers a portion of central England (i.e. much smaller than UK land areas, which comprises all of England plus Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland), it was ‘only’ the 5th warmest June since that record began in 1659.
So, not surprisingly, areas of the UK other than the CET region experienced the hottest (compared to average) temperatures in June.
I’m impressed. You really believe that nonsense. That’s real faith, something I never had.
Where were you in 1976? I was at the Windmill on Clapham Common wishing the pub had’t run dry.
I was in Blackpool on holiday fighting off a plague of ladybirds.
Ugh. Awful place.
But I still ‘admire’ your blind faith. May gaia go with you
May your local never again run dry again.
In this case though, the hottest years in the CET were before 1884. I’d be surprised if there were not hotter June’s across the UK before country wide records were kept. Individual monthly records for the UK are highly variable, it’s quite easy to find a few years that had unusually hot months, as well as many with unusually cold months.
So an actual temperature record in central England can’t represent all of England but a lone larch tree can represent the entire earth?
Explain please.
Why are whining about the nice weather? You own a vacation rental in Spain and are worried that Brits will now stay closer to home for holidays?
Like really!
Go outside and get a tan – it’ll make your mood better – look at your cousins in the US and Australia.
1884 and Britain was covered in coal soot clouds – of course it was colder then, they had already perfected the geo-engineering that some “mad scientists” are recommending now.
It’s probably worthy of a research grant to investigate whether temps in China have risen in response to their efforts to clean up the air, especially around Beijing. Compare cities with rural areas, and areas that didn’t have a smog problem with those who did and those that are clearing up with those still under a dark cloud.
“The record starts in 1884.”
The CET?
Your argument appears somewhat confusing, if not self contradictory. If you criticise Paul Homewood for only using the CET then shouldn’t you have the full UK data for CET and non-CET areas, which I presume is simply not available for the full time periods under discussion?
I guess Brits don’t realize how insane they sound calling 14.9°C (59°F) hot.
Not all ‘Brits’ work for the MO
Our average this June was probably about 12 degrees C.
It is winter, after all.
According to UAH, Australia just had its warmest winter (Jun-Jul-Aug) period in its 45-year record (1.25C for August, not yet added to data set but confirmed here).
Winters in Australia have been warming at an impressive +0.26C per decade since 1979, according to UAH.
I don’t think the minima have been getting warmer, worse luck.
Bill’s done some very good work on the correlation between temperatures and rainfall, but anecdotally fine winter days warm up more during the day than cloudy days. This winter has been pretty dry north of the Riverina.
It would be interesting to see the minima and maxima for the same period. Also the regional breakdowns, but I don’t think the spatial granularity is sufficiently detailed.
Here in Perth it was just under the 30 year average, Queensland was quite warm from my understanding. Anyway seems like more localised (that is east coast) rather than all of Australia. Pacific is warmer than average, particularly off Queensland, and if I’m to understand it right warm oceans would be either a current thing or from sun due to long wave radiation not being able to penetrate beyond a thin layer of the surface.
It was just as warm in the past in Australia as it is today.
“… as it is today”
How would you know? Your graph only goes up to 2012, and doesn’t show overall temperatures. Just the signle warmest month for each year.
Bellman you’re an idiot. Do you think global warming from CO2 just randomly woke up in 2013 and started warming Australia?
I think I know who downvoted you…. even though you are just posting the facts.
Some people can not accept reality.
If WUWT ever needed a new catchphrase, that would be it!
Amazing that you got the UAH data up to ‘Sep 2023’, considering it’s only the 6th September and they have only reported to end August.
Also, you forgot to add a trendline to your chart, which is highly typical of this place.
Go ahead and add one, and see what you get.
Wrong, the data only goes up to August.
You are a moron, and a flaming nit-wit. !
Same old cherry-pick. Start a couple of years earlier and the trend is over 0.3°C / decade.
Look over the entire range, and the trend is 0.17°C / decade.
Sorry, the labels are wrong.
Here’s the corrected version.
Yep those El Nino steps are very useful, aren’t they
And
And since the last El Nino…
On a year to date basis, Australia to August is in 11th place.
2 month = WEATHER
Try to learn.
And the +0.26C per decade warming, Jun-Aug? Weather?
I have a bridge I could sell to you.
Any bridge you had would be rotting from disuse, like your mind.
Cooling since the last El Nino (must be CO2 !!)
Aug 2009 had larger anomaly than Aug 2023.
Feb 1997 (SUMMER) and May 1998 had bigger anomalies than June,
And there are 9 occurrence of anomalies greater than August.
Dodgy Bros have nothing on you as a used car salesman.
And not one person I know has complained about having an ABSOLUTELY GORGEOUS WINTER. 🙂
(June was a bit cool though.
8am.. 9ºC, time to take the dog for a walk
GREAT WEATHER we are having down here 🙂
I would probably be wearing a jacket if the temperature were 59F. I definitely would not consider that a heat wave.
It’s 78F here at 8am.
It’s boiling actually, Antonio says so
I pretty much came to the same conclusion 1976 was the champion in the UK, for max temps and heat . I live in Southampton where the 1976 record was set at , last year my out door thermometer didn’t record anything that close to 1976 record , and the summer of 1976 went on for so long ! Lovely I was an 18 year old riding around on an RD350 . I use the TORRO website to get Uk temp extremes
Met Office confirms 1976 was the warmest UK summer in terms of daily maximum temperatures. In terms of daily average temperatures, 1976 falls back to 5th place, with the top 4 warmest all occurring since 2003.
There were far warmer ones pre dating humans old chap
The earth is still in a 2.6 million year ice age named the Quaternary Glaciation. Warmest in an ice age isn’t very impressive. 20% percent of the earth’s land is either permafrost or covered by glaciers.
No one is disputing that.
That’s nice – great to hear that the climate is improving in the UK.
Most of the temperature rise is CET, and of course the wider UK, is from population growth.
CET data is less affected by urban warming than the wider UK ,
…. but comparisons with Valentia (basically untouched) gives a good indication of the urban warming effect on CET.
Note: UK population growth is pretty linear since the mid 1800s, (unlike global population which shows a surge starting in 1960 then growing even faster since 1970s)
STORY TIP:
https://blog.frontiersin.org/2023/08/08/antarctic-extreme-events-martin-siegert/?id_mc=316525211&utm_source=sfmc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Corporate+newsletter_August&utm_id=2197054&Business_Goal=MARCOM&Audience=Subscribers&Email_Category=CorporateNewsletter&Channel=Email&BusinessGoal_Audience_EmailCategory_Channel=MARCOM_Subscribers_CorporateNewsletter_Email
Any videos of the Thames boiling out there?
No, but I have one of it frozen over solid with markets on – imagine that
Yikes!
From the article: “There is an unmistakeable takeaway from these charts.’
Yes, there is. The charts show it was just as warm in the recent past as it is today.
There is much more CO2 in the air today, than there was in the past, yet the temperatures today are no warmer than they were in the past. This means that CO2 has had no discerable effect on air temperatures.
That’s the unmistakable takeaway: CO2 is a benign gas that has little effect on Earth temperatures and therefore CO2 does not need regulation or reduction, and there is no need to bankrupt our nations trying to eliminate CO2 emissions.
Brilliant choice of the details you show. Chosen presumably to make temp increase seem less significant!
However if you fit a trendline to your spots or detailed plots then it APPEARS to me to show a significant increase especially from about 1970 onward.
“make temp increase seem less significant!”
Temperature increase in the UK is “less significant”
1976 was a beautiful, long, warm summer – none of this alarmism malarkey either
English newspapers label anything over 20C as a heat wave.
When you define a heat wave as anything 3 degrees above normal for 3 days, you get a lot more heat waves, and can have them in winter too. So we have a lot more now than when everyone thought it was too cold to mention….
DM,
Excellent point.
Rather than formulating good definitions, there seems to be a thrust to allow home-made definitions so that more alarm can be confected. Geoff S
Tom,
English people have long had a problem with temperature of beer, as well as of air. Geoff S
I think it’s time for the UK to have a USCRN equivalent. The question is why hasn’t this been implemented or at the very least discussed?
Same with Australia.
BoM still uses sites that the KNOW are totally unfit for “climate” purposes.
1976 was the only descent summer of my non adult life. I waited eagerly for the next “good summer”…. for 10 years. Then I gave and went to live somewhere with a sensible climate.
Getting the data from the met office – Met Office Hadley Centre Central England Temperature Data Download
I get these plots. each plot is filtered on temperature and shows the actual temperature at the date on the x-axis. A simple linear trendline has been added. each trend line shows an increasing temperature
mini temp highs
min temp lows
Are the x-axes meant to be non-linear?
the x-axis are the years where the temperature meets the criteria in the chart title. other years not meeting this criteria are not in the chart
Okey dokey. Just as long as you appreciate that that approach means they’re just pretty pictures with green lines drawn across them.
Most of the temperature rise in CET, and of course the wider UK, is from population growth and urban expansion
.
CET data is less affected by urban warming than the wider UK ,
…. but comparisons with Valentia (basically untouched) gives a good indication of the urban warming effect on CET.
The rise is very consistent since 1860, so cannot be anything to do with enhanced atmospheric CO2.
Note: UK population growth is pretty linear since the mid 1800s, (unlike global population which shows a surge starting in 1960 then growing even faster since 1970s)
The little rise at the end is to do with a few years of longer SUNSHINE hours over the UK.
I doubt anyone in the UK is really complaining about more sunshine….
….. although they are pommies, so could complain about basically anything.
So England had about 10 days in June with highs above 25 C (77 F) and that constitutes a “boiling summer”? Then, there were only three days in July with highs above 21 C (70 F). In most places in the United States, even along the northern border, that would be considered a COOL July. Are the British allergic to a little sunshine?
Complications arise when data units are derived from social history rather than science. Some examples in time series analysis are the “week” and “month”. One can use “day” because it is part of a natural cycle in which factors of interest change, like temperature. “Week” was derived from a social wish to make calenders easy to use, or to create a more holy day every seven. Nothing to do with temperature, when that is the variable being studied.
It is possible to select a time interval that best supports a claim, like “Last month was the hottest on record.” (When the last fortnight was not). Indeed, one can use p-hack methods to find an interval that best shows your claim.
I have done many studies of weather stations, seeking the hottest heatwaves each year of arbitrary duration 1, 3, 5 and 10 consecutive days. I admit that these are artificial choices, but they do assist understanding number analysis. The patterns at a station are usually different, depending on day length of heatwaves. So, only occasionally is the year with the hottest 1-day the same as the year with the hottest 10-day event.
(These observations are made for numerical analysis and do not account for errors of measurement.)
Also, the 10-day heatwave, for example, is less reliable as an index of severity than sorter ones. This is because of voluntary selection of consecutive days. There are many examples of seriously high and long heatwaves with one cool day in the middle that breaks it into shorter parts and removes it from the 10-day list of candidates.
Factors like these affect the reporting of extremes. Worse, such factors allow data mining for sensational reporting. If you cannot wax lyrical about a 1-day heatwave, try a week or a month or any other duration that fits the bill – if you are doing anti-science. (And as a bonus, omit estimates of uncertainty, or make them up for visually pretty, high impact graphs).
Geoff S
Day, week, month and year make more sense if they are taken as approximations.
As you noted, a “day” is fairly obvious – sunrise to sunrise, sunset to sunset, etc.
A “moonth” is similarly derived from the rising or setting of a new moon or full moon.
A “week” is a phase of the moon – first quarter, …, fourth quarter
A “year” takes longer to track, but again comes back to tracking sunrise or sunset at midsummer or midwinter. Stonehenge (and probably other henges) is oriented on the midsummer/midwinter line, probably due to the lay of the land.
The “year” is divided into 4 “seasons”. This seemed to make sense in Europe, but the various numbers of seasons used by Aborigines in different parts of Australia were more useful to them.
The arbitrary starting date of the year as the first of January is slightly out of sync with mid-winter (northern hemisphere), which can probably be attributed to uncorrected clock drift.
They approximately tie in with each other, but go rather out of alignment if you’re paying attention. Mesopotamian, Babylonian, Egyptian, and Hellenistic astronomers made very long-term observations, and developed various calendars with somewhat complex cycles to tie lunar and solar periods together.
old cocky,
While agree with your words, I am trying to stress that intervals chosen for time series analysis can be part of a numbers game. For example, if you cannot find what you want to demonstrate by use of a 2-day heatwave, try 3-day. 4-day, 5-day etc until you get a pattern that you like.
Similar concept to polynomial fits to time series. Some exaggerate trends via the math, but that is not an excuse to choose the ones that you like. You need patterns that can be linked to climate, not math.
Similarly, if people don;t find their pet in weekly data, try fortnightly, try monthly. The point is, these intervals are not really natural (apart from weak moon links) but they provide material for selective data mining.
Geoff S
Geoff,
While Disraeli had a personal animosity towards Charles Babbage, he was quite right to observe that there are lies, damned lies and statistics.
Part of the recommended reading list for Econometrics was “How to Lie With Statistics”. That wasn’t to teach us how to lie with statistics, but to instil an understanding of how easy it is to get it wrong, as well as spotting others’ deliberate or inadvertent misuse.
One of the comments at Climate Audit years ago (from Roman, I think), was on the dangers of looking at multiple possible correlations (data mining, basically) Every factor added increases the threshold for significance. That seems to be honoured in the breach.
As for time series analysis, the “time” axis really just represents “all the stuff that’s happening during that interval”. The main benefit of TSA is to see the things which stick out, so warrant further investigation.
The OLS regression line can be useful as well, to cut through the noise to some extent, but it has the side effect of obscuring quasi-periodic changes. At the other extreme, blind curve fitting is like a drunk looking for the lost keys under the street lamp because the light is better there.