The Real Cause of the Maui Wildfire Disaster

From the Cliff Mass Weather Blog

Cliff Mass

This blog will discuss the key reason for the Maui disaster, one not discussed by the media and others:  a high amplitude atmospheric wave forced by strong winds interacting with the mountains of northwest Maui.  

An atmosphere wave that produced powerful, dry downslope winds on the western slopes of West Maui mountains.

A vertical cross-section of the predicted mountain wave.  

Explained in detail below

The terrible disaster in Maui has been leading the news cycle for a week now, with media and others proposing many causes:  climate change, drought, dry invasive grasses, and Hurricane Dora to name a few.

But none of them have identified the key reason why so many people died last week and why the damage was so extensive.  None explained the 60-90 mph gusts that hit a very localized area.  Winds strong enough to shear off wooden power poles, tear roofs apart, and down lines of power lines.  

And it wasn’t Hurricane Dora, a relatively small tropical storm that passed 700 miles to the south of Hawaii.

Something else happened in Maui last week.   Something capable of creating intense wind damage in one location and light winds a few miles away.

A phenomenon skillfully predicted by modern high-resolution models, and thus a feature we could have warned Lahaina’s population about.   A phenomenon that would have been picked up by surface weather observations, if only West Maui had invested in inexpensive weather stations.

The Terrain

To understand what happened one must consider the terrain of West Maui (see below), which is dominated by terrain reaching approximately 5500 ft.

Looking eastward from a boat off of Lahaina, the terrain looms impressive (see below).

Picture courtesy of Professor Dale Durran, UW
Last Tuesday, strong winds approached the crest of the West Maui Mountains, not because of Hurricane Dora, but because of an unusually strong high-pressure area to the north.  

We know this for several reasons.  A map of sea level pressure (black lines), surface winds (wind barbs), and the standardized sea level pressure anomaly (difference) from normal (colors) at 9 AM Hawaii time on Tuesday are shown below.  

High pressure is centered north of Hawaii and this high pressure was far more intense than normal just north and over Maui (indicated by the orange, red, and brown colors).   The pressure anomalies due to the Hurricane Dora were very small in scale and limited to far south of Hawaii.

Hurricane Dora had little impact on Hawaii during this event, something confirmed by an expert at the National Hurricane Center.

Since winds approaching the West Maui mountains will be so important consider the situation at the same time for an elevation of around 2600 ft (925 hPa pressure)– see below.   You can see the high to the north, the location of Maui (white arrow), and the hurricane (red arrow).  

The wind anomaly from normal of the winds at this level is shown in color.   Look carefully and you will see gray color over Maui…. five standard deviations from normal….which means VERY unusual.  You will also note the clear separation of the strong winds of Dora from what hit Maui.

Not not only were strong winds approaching the West Maui mountains, but another feature that can foster a very strong mountain response also occurred:  an area of stable air near the crest level of the terrain.

This is illustrated by the vertical sounding at Hilo on the Big Island six hours earlier (see below).  The black line on the right shows the temperature with height.  When the temperature does not fall rapidly with height, the atmosphere is generally stable. When it is constant with height or warming with height (an inversion), it is very stable.

Trust me, this stable layer is important.  When strong winds accompanied by a stable layer near or just above crest level hits a terrain barrier, a high-amplitude mountain wave can form.

A wave that can produce intense downslope winds.

And this is exactly what happened last Tuesday over Maui.

The Smoking Gun

Last week, I asked David Ovens, a highly skillful atmospheric modeler in my group at the UW, to run a forecast of the Maui event using the WRF model at very high resolution (1.3 km grid spacing).

I was stunned by the simulation, which revealed the real cause of the disaster:  a high-amplitude mountains wave with very strong downslope flow on the West Maui Mountains.  

Below is a  forecast vertical cross-section of the situation around 2100 UTC August 8th (11 AM Hawaii time).   Winds are shown by color shading and arrows.  The solid lines are potential temperature.

An extraordinarily high amplitude wave had formed, with air descending the western side of  the Maui Mountains, accelerating as it plummeted towards Lahaina.   At low elevations, the flow abruptly ascended, in a feature often termed a hydraulic jump.

Analogous flow can occur for water flowing over a dam.

The descending flow was not only strong, but very, very dry, as shown by the vertical cross-section of relative humidity (see below).  Relative humidities below 20% descended down the mountains, with the driest air well under 10%.

The combination of strong winds and dry air hugely promotes fire, including rapidly drying surface fuels such as grass. 

It did not matter whether the grass or light vegetation were wet or dry the days or weeks before:  this extraordinary atmospheric animal would ensure they were dry enough to burn.   Prior dry conditions during the weeks before were immaterial.

Lack of Wind Observations on West Maui:  How Do We Know the Model Forecasts are Correct?

The lack of wind observations on West Maui is stunning. I know of no other heavily populated areas with such a singular lack of wind observations.  Very bad.

So how do we know these model simulations are correct?

First, there is the damage, even before the fires got going.   Power poles snapped in two.  Powerlines down.  Great physical damage to structures.    Such damage is consistent with winds gusting to 60-90 mph.  

Second, there are videos indicating such strong winds, and a number of people estimated wind gusts over 60 mph.  Check this video.

Maui’s lack of observations is not responsible and cripples the ability of the county and local authorities to warn people of such events.

Confirming the Model’s Prediction on Hawaii

Similarly strong winds were predicted by the model over the northwest side of the Big Island, where strong flow hit similarly high terrain (see map below and wind forecast beneath it)

Strongest winds indicated by the orange color


But unlike Maui, we do have a good observation on Hawaii, at the USDA RAWS site at Kohala Ranch (see red arrow above).


During this event, the winds gusted to 82 mph! (see proof below).  Confirmed!

The Bottom Line

The Maui event was the result of a high amplitude mountain wave and strong, dry downslope flow on the western slopes of the mountains of West Maui.   The mountain wave was the result of strong approaching flow and a stable layer near the crest level of the Maui Mountains.  

Strong dry winds support fire and result in rapid movement of the flame front, as well as moving embers ahead.  The winds could well have started the fire by damaging infrastructure.   As noted in my earlier blog, a huge reserve of dry, flammable grasses was in place.

This event was not the result of climate change, Hurricane Dora, or an extended drought.  It resulted from an unusually intense mountain wave/downslope windstorm produced by a fairly rare convergence of conditions.

This event was highly predictable using modern weather prediction technology.  The combination of a reasonable weather observing network (which does not exist on Maui) and the use of state-of-science weather modeling, the population of Maui can receive far better warnings that can prevent this tragedy from occurring again.

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August 16, 2023 10:11 am

But what lit the fire? Strong winds don’t light fires.

Milo
Reply to  Oldseadog
August 16, 2023 10:24 am

When they knock down power poles, they do, same as in CA. Transformers spark.

Mark Luhman
Reply to  Milo
August 16, 2023 1:05 pm

Transforms don’t spark when they are overloaded they explode. Down power lines spark!

atticman
Reply to  Oldseadog
August 16, 2023 10:30 am

Some eco-loon trying to make a point about climate change?

atticman
Reply to  atticman
August 16, 2023 10:31 am

It wouldn’t be the first time…

climategrog
Reply to  atticman
August 16, 2023 11:26 am

Yes, but no indication of that in this case.

Reply to  atticman
August 16, 2023 1:49 pm

See my post at 1:38 atticman Yes I am making the point that CC doesn’t actually light fires, they are lit by someone or something.

cosmicwxdude
Reply to  Oldseadog
August 16, 2023 1:54 pm

Powerlines due to the severe wind the most likely cause.

Scissor
Reply to  Oldseadog
August 16, 2023 3:16 pm

The incidence of fires at recycling plants has exploded this month. Why, I wonder?

Here’s a list of this month’s recycling plant carnage from J. D. Rucker:

Reply to  Scissor
August 16, 2023 8:58 pm

Where was the recycling plant in Laihana

Robert B
Reply to  Duker
August 16, 2023 9:11 pm

I think he is suggesting that it’s becoming a cool thing to light a fire.

Sommer
Reply to  atticman
August 16, 2023 6:49 pm

Who is Dr. Miles Stones and how did this book about the cause of this disaster get written and published on Amazon so quickly?
https://www.amazon.com/Fire-Fury-Implications-Climate-Change-ebook/dp/B0CFCTLXJJ

Reply to  Sommer
August 16, 2023 9:00 pm

Happens all the time . next day self publishing. Even take others work , either written or music A bit of reformatting of text or changing pitch of the music and presto. often the author doesnt exist as well

MarkH
Reply to  Sommer
August 16, 2023 9:21 pm

It would seem to me that whoever “Dr. Miles Stones” actually is, they are likely using AI to quickly generate the text of books. This author has published dozens of books just in June/July this year. Almost all of them, including this one, are utter garbage.

It’s possible that it’s just someone trying to grift money by putting out timely garbage, that requires basically zero effort as it is AI generated, books that gullible people buy. Or perhaps they have other motives, sewing dissent and confusion, but probably more likely the former reason.

Phil R
Reply to  Oldseadog
August 16, 2023 10:47 am

What ever it was, it d*mn sure wasn’t CO2 or “climate change.”

Reply to  Phil R
August 16, 2023 1:48 pm

That is exactly my point.

cosmicwxdude
Reply to  Oldseadog
August 16, 2023 1:55 pm

Fallen powerlines sparking the most likely cause.

Scissor
Reply to  Phil R
August 16, 2023 5:30 pm

In any case, we probably ought to send some more aid to Ukraine.

climategrog
Reply to  Oldseadog
August 16, 2023 11:24 am

Strong winds don’t light fires.

FFS did you even read the article? Broken power lines very often cause massive sparks enough to set off fires in dry conditions. PG&E were actually convicted with something like 83 counts of manslaughter for exactly this reason contributed to by poorly maintained power lines in Californica.

There is now a similar class action law suit in Hawai’i.

Reply to  climategrog
August 16, 2023 1:40 pm

Yes I did read it and didn’t see what caused the fire to start.
See my posts above

Reply to  Oldseadog
August 16, 2023 1:38 pm

The point I am trying to make is that there is no MSM report as to what actually lit the fire, they are all trying to blame the ignition on CC.
So was it arson, power cable failure or what?

cosmicwxdude
Reply to  Oldseadog
August 16, 2023 1:57 pm

You watch MSM? Why? It’s all half truths, outright lies and obfuscation when in comes to ANYTHING weather or climate related and pretty much anything else too.

Reply to  cosmicwxdude
August 16, 2023 4:14 pm

It’s called “knowing your enemy”

Reply to  cosmicwxdude
August 16, 2023 6:02 pm

I think OldSeaDog was just asking for specifics . Nothing more nothing less. Let’s not assume there is a secret agenda in every question.

Reply to  Oldseadog
August 19, 2023 3:33 am

They are still picking up the pieces. The investigation, if there is one, probably has not started yet.

cosmicwxdude
Reply to  Oldseadog
August 16, 2023 1:53 pm

I am sure a 1000 people have already responded to you…powerlines downed by falling poles and sparking. Happens in CA all-the-time!

prjndigo
Reply to  Oldseadog
August 17, 2023 10:47 am

What, do you think lightning rubs pairs of sticks together and talks about its grandfather?

The windstorm was breaking off and tearing down live healthy trees, there’s lots of flattened forest pictures as well.

August 16, 2023 10:39 am

The Hawaiian version of Santa Anna winds, who would have imagined.

Construction standards in a topical paradise, just wondering…..

Reply to  Devils Tower
August 16, 2023 10:56 am

It wont be topical once the fires are out.

Milo
Reply to  Devils Tower
August 16, 2023 11:28 am

Houses are flimsy, with single wall construction. They rattle in the frequent wind.

prjndigo
Reply to  Devils Tower
August 17, 2023 10:49 am

Same problem as Australia… people were building houses far apart and out of metal roof and siding then the whole tar-shingle and plastic foam exterior party showed up…

MB1978
August 16, 2023 10:53 am

It used to be that natural disasters were unexpected. They were caused by nature, not by humans, so we once upon a time a long time ago were “powerless” to stand against them. Humans have endured disease, famines and floods, earthquakes and (wild)fires, and then rebuilt with the irrepressible resolve of the human spirit … this is the essence of human ingenuity and engineering 

According to Hawaii Wildfire Management Organization, 98% of all Hawaiian fires are started by people, of which 75% are due to carelessness. The numbers speak for it self and can be compared to the false headlines about the Greek forrest-fires.

I will say that – and thanks for an excellent explanation – in this case the wildfires falls under the lack of human ingenuity and engineering and therefore is “man-made” caused of the lack of visions based on know-how – not by climate change, not to be said that all fires could be prevented but many could by studying the litterature to prevent apocalyptic headlines in MSM…!!

climategrog
Reply to  MB1978
August 16, 2023 11:28 am

The natural disaster warning system was never even sounded. They have equiptment and fail to use it.

Maybe they smoke too much Maui wowie.

MB1978
Reply to  climategrog
August 16, 2023 1:09 pm

I dont know what they smoke … but this is a clear case that points out that governments immunizes itself from the profit and loss system, and therefore from much of the need to weigh risk.

Nearly a decade ago the Hawaii Wildfire Management Organization, a research nonprofit, warned the Hawaiian government that the area around Lahaina was extremely fire-prone due to frequent downslope winds, steep terrain, and dry grass. Little was done to address these risks. A subsequent report in 2020 added that an invasive species of exceptionally flammable grass was prevalent in the surrounding fields and that passing hurricanes created strong winds known to fuel wildfires on the islands … as stated in my first comment, the most destructive natural disasters are never 100 percent natural. Human choices, land use, and government policies play a big role in how harmful hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, flash floods, and wildfires are to the affected communities.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  climategrog
August 16, 2023 1:16 pm

If you are referring to the tsunami siren warning system, it was a good thing they didn’t sound that. When a tsunami is coming you run inland to higher ground not to the ocean.

Drake
Reply to  Tom in Florida
August 17, 2023 2:51 pm

Second comment I have seen about the tsunami warning system. Their government is so sloppy they don’t have variable outputs for the warning system for various hazards?

I think I remember some warnings on Oahu about missile fire from N Korea causing quite a mess. Was that just TV/radio, or were there sirens?

This disaster will not repeat itself for at least 10 years. It will take that long to built enough density to cause that level of destruction again.

Will they only allow metal roofs, masonry walls, etc. so that this will never be repeated?

We can only wait and see.

JD Lunkerman
Reply to  Tom in Florida
August 17, 2023 9:59 pm

It is not a tsunami warning system it is known as an “All Hazards Warning” system.

markm
Reply to  JD Lunkerman
August 22, 2023 8:59 am

Except that they have never implemented any way of using it to warn about different hazards – so if they sound the siren, people assume it’s a tsunami warning and they should run inland and uphill.

J Boles
August 16, 2023 11:00 am

They should have turned off the power until after the wind.

Philip Peake
Reply to  J Boles
August 16, 2023 11:18 am

I think this probably happened faster than anyone could recognize what was happening and react.

But the real answer is for the US to leave behind its third world power distribution infrastructure and do it the way the first world does, with underground cables and large transformers supplying whole streets rather than one per house (or maybe two) in steel cabinets, not on top of wooden poles.

climategrog
Reply to  Philip Peake
August 16, 2023 11:30 am

Plenty of 1st world countries still use ariel tranmission lines. It is still the norm. Using flaky pine poles which are probably half rotten and ill maintained could be more to the point.

As always penny pinching cost cutting and lack of investment leads to deaths.

Reply to  climategrog
August 16, 2023 4:18 pm

The French used a lot of concrete poles as well as wood at local level although they are being replaced with underground cables now.

Reply to  climategrog
August 16, 2023 5:09 pm

Using flaky pine poles which are probably half rotten and ill maintained could be more to the point.”

Again , I can only talk about NSW.

Certainly where I live overhead lines are the norm.

Strong wooden posts treated for termites and fire-resistance.

Maintenance is pretty rigorous as well.

Posts are checked every year or so, around bases cleared and creasoted (or whatever it is they use).

Lines are either single triple-twisted or separate, often with non-conductive bars across them to keep them apart.

Clearence under local lines is vigorously maintained, as in chopping out the whole of the centre of a tree if necessary.

Any larger transmission lines are also well maintained… regularly cleared of any trees and undergrowth with wide cleared areas when going through forests.

It really is just a matter of taking the distribution of electricity seriously and realising the dangers.

don k
Reply to  Philip Peake
August 16, 2023 12:59 pm

I live with underground utilities. Yes, they are relatively proof against wind. Not so much against lightning because the transformers and such are above ground where they can be accessed for maintenance. But although the wires don’t fail often, they do fail from time to time. And when they do, fixing them is slow and expensive. To fix them, “they” have to dig the wires up without further damaging them or damagine the other services wires/pipes.

Might work OK in an urban area — especially if there are utility tunnels with water, sewage, electrical, tv etc wiring all accessible. But that’s expensive and probably only going to be feasible in densely populated areas — certainly not in rural grasslands, brush, or forests. I also suspect underground utilities aren’t very feasible in poorly drained soils or where the bedrock is close to the surface and very tough — lava, granite, dolomite, and such.

On the whole, I think that I’d prefer overhead wires even with more frequent outages.

Drake
Reply to  don k
August 17, 2023 2:56 pm

I would ALWAYS prefer overhead lines to no stable electrical supply.

Of course that is why I am against unreliable sources of generation.

Don’t forget, the lack of maintenance of the power poles is probably directly related, inversely, to the amount spent on running new lines to un reliable generation sources.

Mark Luhman
Reply to  Philip Peake
August 16, 2023 1:09 pm

The soil conditions in that area may not support underground power. It damn hard to tunnel/plow in rock.

prjndigo
Reply to  Philip Peake
August 17, 2023 10:54 am

Uhm. Dunno where you’re getting the “one per house” thing. A single house remote from others gets a transformer and 12 houses get a single shared transformer. Being on a pole actually makes em run cooler and consume less power. And believe it or not most of the world uses poles…

The real problem out that way had nothing to do with the ignition source, its kinda like what happened in Paradise California where the houses were so close to combustible plants and structures and all packed together that there was no chance at all of any kind of resistance to a firestorm.

Milo
Reply to  J Boles
August 16, 2023 11:30 am

Power is needed to pump water.

Reply to  Milo
August 16, 2023 2:44 pm

Shut down the power, no fire will start, no water pump is needed, logical ?

Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 16, 2023 4:20 pm

Until a man/woman/? With a matchand and fire in mind comes along

Drake
Reply to  Milo
August 17, 2023 3:00 pm

I doubt that the water supply on ANY Hawaiian island requires any pumping. (Excepting for individual remote buildings) They get their water from the mountains and elevation provides the kinetic energy to deliver water under constant pressure.

Reply to  J Boles
August 16, 2023 4:49 pm

I’m in a fire-prone area..

The local electricity wires here appear to be heavily insulated twisted triplet.

When they are run separately, it is usual to see non conduction rods across the wires holding them apart.

SteveZ56
August 16, 2023 11:02 am

Thank you, Cliff, for this excellent explanation of what happened in west Maui last week.

The photo of Maui taken from a boat west of Lahaina seems to show relatively barren slopes with little vegetation, despite photos of other areas of Hawaii covered with lush vegetation. Was this photo taken before last week’s fires? Since the prevailing winds over Hawaii are the trade winds from the northeast, could this area be subject to dry, downsloping winds from the mountains under normal conditions?

I checked the weather records for Lahaina (from weather.com) and compared them to those from Hana, on the east coast of Maui. Hana, on the east coast, had rain on 8 of the first 15 days of August, while Lahaina had no rain in August. While this is admittedly a small sample, it seems like Lahaina is naturally vulnerable to droughts due to its location downwind of the West Maui mountains.

Reply to  SteveZ56
August 16, 2023 11:28 am

The leeward sides of all the islands are driest; Hilo on the windward side of Hawai’i hits 120+ inches (3+ meters) of precipitation per year, while Kailua Kona on the east side manages only 10 inches.

https://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Hawaii/yearly-rainfall.php

climategrog
Reply to  SteveZ56
August 16, 2023 11:32 am

Yes being on the leeward side of a mountain in a zone with eastly trade winds will mean you get a lot less rain. It’s part of the Foehn effect .

cosmicwxdude
Reply to  SteveZ56
August 16, 2023 2:02 pm

All of the lee-side areas of Hawaii are dry, you just never see them in vacation photos or promo-photos.

Med Bennett
August 16, 2023 11:23 am

This is exactly the same phenomenon that caused the Marshall Fire outside of Boulder, CO on 12/30/2021, the most destructive fire in Colorado history in terms of property losses – intense downsloping winds up to 100 mph and a stable layer at mountaintop level over the Continental Divide. Boulder is infamous for high wind events (https://psl.noaa.gov/boulder/wind.html), but of course that didn’t stop the local illiterati from blaming the fire on “climate change”.

Paul S
Reply to  Med Bennett
August 16, 2023 12:12 pm

110 mph at my house. Knocked out my power, the internet and the telephone. I was oblivious to the fire a mile away, until an hour later. Fortunately, I was upwind and had the wind at my back.

Med Bennett
Reply to  Paul S
August 16, 2023 8:35 pm

I was actually driving back from Utah that day and had to spend five hours in Golden waiting for the wind to subside enough for them to reopen Highway 93.I had a sickening feeling when I saw the smoke plume on the way back to Boulder that evening – the wind was still crazy and lots of vans and box trucks blown over. It snowed 6 inches the next day, as I recall.

Dr. Bob
August 16, 2023 11:33 am

As Rohm Emmanual so aptly said, “Never let a good crisis go to waste. This is the mantra of the extremists, and it is being applied to essentially every situation that arises.

Robertvd
Reply to  Dr. Bob
August 16, 2023 2:24 pm

And most of the press in europe tells the news like if most of the island was burned to the ground and not just a very little part of it. It is completely blown out of proportion. We are lied to 24/7.

August 16, 2023 11:35 am

Good work!
Just one thing: You lament the dirge of weather stations on Maui, because the people could’ve been warned.
You then proceed to demonstrate similar winds on another island with plenty weatherologism. The question now arises: Did anybody warn the good people of Hawaii warned in time? Or only the US base?
I reckon the results would have been the same, had Maui weather stations. So far the only blame I can see, is a suspicion that their power utility is run by affirmative-action employees who don’t know the basics of electrix, such as safety breaker switches.
…but I cannot get out of my mind the fact that various shiny people from all over the globe have been collecting real estate on Maui.
Where was that big tsunami again, the one that hit Fukushima too, where the local folk were kept away from the coast for their own safety, until the bulldozers have prepared the ground for the new luxury resorts? I expect the same for Maui…
P.S. Before you send money to help, consider that the near billion collected after that hurricane in Hawaii was spent on the US Army, six examples of ‘economic housing’ they were pretending to build thousands of, and a bunch of Red Cross worthies caught molesting the kiddies. I wonder if any of Hillary Clinton’s friends are there right now, “rescuing orphans” who got separated from their families in the confusion.

Reply to  cilo
August 16, 2023 3:59 pm

Did you mean Haiti not Hawaii?

Reply to  mkelly
August 17, 2023 4:43 am

Sorry, I live in Austria, got distracted by a kangaroo…

antigtiff
August 16, 2023 12:13 pm

I heard one report that the fire dept. put out one fire in the morning….maybe that wasn’t a hint of what was to come? Also heard that the fire moved at 60 mph……so if you were not prepared….forgetaboutit.

Philip Mulholland
August 16, 2023 12:48 pm

At low elevations, the flow abruptly ascended, in a feature often termed a hydraulic jump.

To see a hydraulic jump modelled here in the atmospheric flow over Maui is quite simply stunning.
Congratulations Cliff, your expertise brings a much need dose of professionalism to the understanding of this tragedy.

August 16, 2023 12:48 pm

I read somewhere (here a WUWT?) the carbon released from last year’s California wildfires undid all the “carbon pollution” reduction by California for the last decade. That’s not stated very clearly, but does anyone have a reference?

Mark Luhman
August 16, 2023 1:04 pm

How about just mowing the grass say like 5 miles out. Irrigated fields would nave helped a lot. I my opinion all the deaths can be put on the shoulders of eco-nuts,

Robertvd
Reply to  Mark Luhman
August 16, 2023 2:39 pm

Such as rice fields and golf courses?

Reply to  Mark Luhman
August 16, 2023 9:18 pm

Well it used to be sugar cane fields but the industry ended because of cheaper imports in the last decades and the locals hated the annual controlled burnings of the cane fields before harvesting. Reduced the out of control fire risk though

Before the late 1700s to early 1800s sandalwood forests covered the island but high demand for the scented wood in Asia meant the locals cut the forests down

cedarstrip
August 16, 2023 1:41 pm

Excellent article.
Minor story tip suggestion. Article says “Maui’s lack of observations is not responsible…”
I suggest “Maui’s lack of observations is irresponsible…”

August 16, 2023 1:43 pm

An excellent demonstration of what modelling really can achieve when focused on something that can be properly modelled. Clearly this should be an input to future plans for the area, with a mitigation and warning strategy well marked out.

cosmicwxdude
August 16, 2023 1:52 pm

As a practicing meteorologist…SPOT ON! Thank you. I will share.

RMoore
August 16, 2023 2:38 pm

NY Post article about video evidence of power pole snapping due to wind causing fire the morning of the blaze. Note initial fire 500 yards upwind and uphill of houses below.

https://nypost.com/2023/08/16/videos-possibly-show-start-of-the-devastating-maui-wildfire/

SamGrove
August 16, 2023 3:02 pm

I suggest rewording this: “Maui’s lack of observations is not responsible”, by replacing “not responsible” with “irresponsible”.

SamGrove
August 16, 2023 3:04 pm

Adiabatic heating goes along with lower humidity.

Reply to  SamGrove
August 16, 2023 5:48 pm

“Adiabatic heating”

Can be a killer. And has nothing to do with CO2.

August 16, 2023 4:29 pm

FWIW, this is essentially the same meteorological mechanism that lead to the Marshal fire disaster in Colorado – Stable layer, high amplitude wave over mountainous terrain. A little different geometry with the mountains & position of the high pressure center , but working together in the same way.

August 16, 2023 6:32 pm

Anytime you have a damaging wind event like that the possibilities for ignition sources are almost endless. including the old fashioned carelessly discarded smoking material, embers faintly alive in someone barbie, and of voices any damaged hi tension / AC transmission line or connection.

One time I was finishing up at a customers house when I noticed an old abandoned sailboat on a trailer in a tall dry grass field directly under High tension line trans mission towers( like the ones that bring power into or out of a city. It was a hot dry dusty august day.I had to check it out ( I’m a boat hoarder) drove into the field thru an open gate and started to remove my smaller ladder off the top of my van to get up on the boat when I felt pins and needles shocks all over like when one walks on carpet in socks and touches a door knob but worse and all over. I put some rubber gloves on shoved the ladder back on the roof rack and got the hell out of there.

Reply to  John Oliver
August 16, 2023 6:41 pm

Not hearing voices (stupid auto correct) but also thinking of the haunting Glen Campbell song line “Singing in the wires, searching for an overload”🎶

aussiecol
August 16, 2023 6:46 pm

Sailors have known for centuries to be wary of katabatic winds while sailing on the leeward side of hilly terrain. Sounds like a very similar scenario.

Bob
August 16, 2023 7:00 pm

Very nice Cliff.

Ireneusz Palmowski
August 16, 2023 10:26 pm

Two more hurricanes will pass south of Hawaii, close enough to increase wind gusts on the islands. A third hurricane that is forming off Mexico will reach California.
comment image

Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
August 17, 2023 5:48 am

“Beginning Saturday, heavy rain will begin to affect Southern California, southern Nevada and western and central Arizona, AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said. As the rain pours down, incidents of flash flooding, mudslides and debris flows will ramp up.
The intensity of the downpours will likely result in road closures over the mountains and deserts. Normally dry canyons and stream beds, called arroyos, may rapidly fill with rushing water and could pose a danger to hikers and motorists.”

Ireneusz Palmowski
August 17, 2023 1:40 am

What contributed to the Maui fires? Persistent, dry, cool winds from the northeast. Hurricanes skirt Hawaii, but are close enough to cause wind turbulence, which can damage power lines.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/webAnims/tpw_nrl_colors/epac/mimictpw_epac_latest.gif

Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
August 17, 2023 5:56 am

“On Maui, drought-parched and fire-prone nonnative plants and grasses – which now cover a quarter of Hawaii – were perfect tinder. The flames were fanned by winds gusting over 60 mph, made hotter and drier as they came down over the nearby mountain and funneled into Lahaina at its base.”
The air that fell from the mountains was extremely dry and gained temperature as the pressure increased. 

August 17, 2023 2:37 am

Excellent Cliff!

Marios Leonardos
August 17, 2023 9:02 am

A similar analysis from Greece
4 questions about the deadly fire in Lahaina, Hawaii
Article writing: Th.M. Giannaros, G. Papavasiliou, K. Lagouvardos
EAA – Penteli, Monday 14 August 2024, 13:00
https://www.meteo.gr/article_view.cfm?entryID=2877

Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  Marios Leonardos
August 17, 2023 10:52 am

“Analysis of the available data indicates that pyrometeorological conditions during the explosive spread of the fire were determined mainly by the presence of a very strong high-pressure field north of the Hawaiian island complex ( Fig. 1 ). The presence of this anomalously strong high-pressure field led to the formation of a strong north-south barometric gradient and, consequently, the strengthening of E/NE winds (weak winds). Blowing gusty winds over Mauna Kahalawai, winds from the east/northeast acted as a descent on the leeward side of the mountain, where the city of Lahaina is located. Forced by the topography to move “down” on the leeward side, the A/NEs become even hotter and drier , contributing decisively to the extreme drying of the fuel and thus increasing the ease of ignition .” 

prjndigo
August 17, 2023 10:46 am

The loss of life was from a failure to maintain code enforcement. Might as well have been house trailers bumping in to each other with stacks of styrofoam coolers in everybody’s yards.

August 17, 2023 12:00 pm

Thanks much to Cliff!
From one of the best objective meteorological analyst’s anywhere!

A comprehensive explanation of the unique dynamics at play this time which very few knew about until reading this wonderful article.

August 17, 2023 1:12 pm

Drone footage:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1690414307979169792

I found this incredible video from Dr. Daniel Swain, using a drone that actually shows how fast the fire was spreading.
North Kihei fire filmed at 11:30 PM



++++++++++++++++++++++++

The videos below are shocking/haunting!
Shadab Javed@JShadab1
Video footage of 8th of August before fires started in #Lahaina Electric poles falling off. May be this could be one of the reason of the deadly wildfires. Follow for more updates. Video Credits – @livingearthsystems (Instagram handle)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1690415918453800961
++++++++++++++
Mike@PantherMike182
Humanity is dead. They just drove right past her and left her for dead… 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1689409366984949760
+++++++++++++++++
Shadab Javed@JShadab1
Devastating People of #lahaina wanted to share their first hand experience in the Lahaina fires. They wanted the world to see the reality of the situation. Follow for more stories.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1690431105080713216
++++++++++
Ivan@Ivankalema01
The historic town of Lahaina was leveled The death toll from the devastating wildfires in Maui, Hawaii has reached 80. Thousands of people have been displaced, more than 1,700 structures have been destroyed. 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1690344115223838721
++++++++++++++
@NikkiThaGodB1
Horrible aftermath of devastating fires in #Maui as death toll continues to rise. 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1690378561964625920

cgh
August 17, 2023 2:27 pm

All of this is talking around the main point. Over a thousand people perished in this event, and climate change had nothing to do with it. This was about bureaucratic infighting over water control on Maui. It’s been going on for years. Quite simply, there was no water available to fight the fires.
A State Official Refused To Release Water For West Maui Fires Until It Was Too Late – Honolulu Civil Beat

Drake
Reply to  cgh
August 17, 2023 3:30 pm

WOW, just WOW.

I guess the “native” in charge of the water saved the taro.

Who cares if some Haoles died.

I am sure no natives died, the gods would not allow it.

JD Lunkerman
August 17, 2023 10:07 pm

98% of the fires in Hawaii are caused by careless humans not electrical poles being downed. Anyone that has spent time in Lahaina likely has seen dozens of street vagabonds all day long and you see them tossing cigarettes everywhere all the time In that wind and dry circumstance that is just a likely as from the electrical amd/or mutiple fires started a number of different ways at or about the same time. Forget the magic bullet one reason cause propounded by someones phone video.

August 18, 2023 5:27 am

Looks very like gusting winds brought power lines and trafos down, sparking and exploding, just like CA a few years back.
Those power line poles look like something from the 1950’s – they should be underground.
That looks like an ENRON effect – deregulation, no infrastructure investment.

Michael S. Kelly
August 18, 2023 11:32 am

I lived in the Inland Empire of Southern California for 28 years, in the San Bernardino area. The mountains were on fire when I first moved in (the famed Panorama Fires), and I lived through a number of others. The worst ones were always driven by the Santa Ana winds, which are very much like what this article describes. No surprises here.