By P Gosselin on 13. August 2023
To illustrate how damaging Germany’s transition to renewable energies and the green movement have been, news is out that things are worse than we thought. Yet, don’t expect the climastalinistas to acknowledge this. Quite to the contrary, they’ll just blame all the economic troubles on the green movement going to slowly!In reality, though, slowing the economy is what they’ve wanted all along.
Drop is “much more than expected”
Blackout News here reports on how industrial production in Germany has slumped “much more than economists expected in June” and that “many experts expect this trend to continue in the coming months.”
The results are based on data from the Federal Statistical Office released last Tuesday.
Slump to continue
“Alexander Krüger of Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe Privatbank thinks many companies are even more pessimistic than they were a few weeks ago,” Blackout News adds. “Jörg Krämer of Commerzbank expects a further slump in the economy in the second half of the year.”
Germany’s high energy costs driving inflation
Much of the decline in production is due to sectors hard hit by Germany’s energy policies. One example is the automotive industry because its future is fraught with huge uncertainty as combustion engines are planned to be phased out.
High interest rates dampening construction
The construction sector has been hit hard as well as energy norms and heating regulations for homes threaten to make building even more unaffordable to many. High energy prices also have fueled inflation, which in turn has forced bank interest rates up and made home financing unattractive. Building permits issued for new homes are extremely low.
One bright spot has been the the aerospace sector. But overall the coming months continue to appear especially gloomy for Germany, Europe’s largest economy. High energy costs have also led to many companies moving operations out of the country.
According to analyst Jens-Oliver Niklasch of Landesbank Baden-Württemberg, “Industrial performance is rather weak at the moment.”
Until Germany gets back to reality with its energy policies, don’t expect improvement anytime soon. Again, this is what the climastalinistas want.
Well, as long as we all agree; A “slump” WAS expected.
The only thing I would like to know: When They sit around their long table devising these plans, does the guy verbalising the next genocidal policy run around the table high-fiving everybody, or do they just sit there, giggling their asses off?
The only thing that keeps Europe afloat is the massive printing by the european central bank. And the same goes for the US. They still believe you can print an economy into prosperity.
It could be that China is the first to hit the wall.
Of course if you are stupid enough to accept worthless dollars and euros in exchange for products you are digging your own grave.
The displaced Reserve Bank of Australia governor made a passing final remark that the Covid relief (massive money creation) overshot the mark and has fuelled the current inflation. However the problem is deeper than that. Energy underpins the cost of everything. If energy price is skyrocketing then the price of everything will skyrocket.
China’s willingness to chew up their domestic coal reserves is actually capping the true inflationary pressure in the developed economies pushing NetZero fantasies.
The supplier of wind turbines to the MacIntyre wind farm in Queensland, Nordex, has shifted blade production from Germany to China to reduce cost of production. The only way global manufacturers can survive is to set up facilities in China and that comes at cost of handing over intellectual property built up over decades. China just chooses the best to develop under local branding for the global market.
I agree, but don’t forget, China is a huge coal importer from Australia. That won’t change because of the permanent inability of China’s rail system to move the amount of coal the country truly needs.
India has the same problem.
How can this be happening, I was assured by “climate science” that taking out nuclear, coal and natural gas generation and replacing it with wind and solar would reduce electricity costs as wind and solar are the cheapest ways to generate electricity.
Here in Alberta we have taken out coal and replaced it with wind and solar and term prices have fallen from 5 ¢/kWh to a mere 15 ¢/kWh,
Here in Commiefornia we have replaced coal with Wind and Solar (a lot of roof top solar…by law as of 1-1-2023 every new home built in Wakyfornia MUST have rooftop solar installed). Before the Renewable mandates and rush to W&S began early 2000s, electricity was 11-13¢/KWh Today it runs 36¢ (tier 1) to 56¢ (tier2) KWh…much more affordable
But think of the saving when you have blackouts and brownouts so your electricity consumption is zero thanks to Governer Hair Gel.
Paging Nick Stokes. Paging Nick Stokes.
NS….. He’ll find a typo in your message and then wedge his point against it.
Sad, pathetic, but true.
If I understand Nick’s position on energy its roughly this:
A national electricity generation system consisting of wind + solar + gas is feasible and will be more cost effective than one consisting only of conventional generation, gas + coal.
The reason is that it will use less fuel, and the fuel savings will more than pay for the costs of installing the wind and solar.
Wind and solar are intermittent and in the case of wind unpredictable generators. This means they require storage. Nick thinks its possible to minimize the need for storage by overbuilding capacity.
Its not clear what he means by overbuilding, because his base case is not specified. He has given a number of 1.5 times, but its not clear what is being raised by this factor. In the case of the UK, for instance, peak demand has reached 47GW, and the lowest is in the high 20s.
The question is, what’s the base case faceplate configuration that we are going to oversize by a factor of 1.5?
Nick also has a complicated argument about capacity utilization which is hard to state without lapsing into parody. It seems to go something like this.
Coal (for instance) has to be overbuilt to deal with peak demands. Therefore its capacity factor is roughly comparable to that of wind. So overbuilding for wind is not a problem.
If this is the argument, its fallacious. First, wind in the UK has an average capacity factor of about 25%. That is, 25GW of faceplate actually delivers an average of 7GW.
Second, the installed conventional consists of base generation, CCGT, coal or nuclear. And fast start peaking plant. The capacity utilization of the base generation plant is high, I think in the 80% range.
Third, once you install 1.5 times whatever your wind overbuild is based on, the capacity utilization of faceplate falls even further below coal or nuclear or CCGT. This is the inevitable cost of intermittency, whether its incurred as huge battery builds, or by (I believe futile) overbuilding.
The reason why overbuilding is futile is because it doesn’t generate when the wind stops, which in the UK it does for days on end. At the level and duration of UK calms, overbuilding makes no difference. You are going to meet all demand from storage for a week or more. Probably two weeks to be reasonably safe. And with a margin of safety.
Its not just intermittency, its also unpredictability, and its the lack of correlation between demand fluctuations and generation fluctuations.
Well, maybe this is not a fair account of Nick’s arguments, in which case lets see him produce what they are. Give some studies on the fuel savings argument. Supply a back of envelope UK or Australia net zero generation configuration.
Very well put. The detail about the overcapacity of say coal is interesting description.
Put it this way say a four generator coal power station might be used so that 3 are running at peak time and one is reserve for faults. But that one station can be reserve for hald a dozen coal generators as each station is independently run and totally separate from other stations say with 50 to 100 mile radius.
Wind generators aren’t separate as it’s mostly the same wind in that area, a lack of wind is a lack and reserve power has to come from elsewhere, but even then low wind speed can effect for 700 or more miles
From my observations every wind farm has say 15% more or less of the turbines braked in order to provide reserve power unless they have bought reserve from elsewhere. My guess is that’s peaker gas turbines, which are based on aircraft engines and designed to go from idle to full power very quickly . Baseload gas turbine power stations , use the same principles but a more heavy duty kind for running day in day out
Nick has graphs, tables and spreadsheets to back up everything he has pulled out of his fantasies.
He also has others, same as his principals
“pulled out of his fantasies”
Must be some kind of Irish spelling or something. Strange way to spell arse.
It doesn’t really matter. ‘Nick Stokes’ is a fictional character. This is a bot being operated by others.
It’s the new, non-rascist math!
It feels so equitable.
And it will get worse with the Euro and Dollar in free fall. Soon it will be unaffordable if income doesn’t follow the inflating fiat money supply.
Lol, great summary rwr – same in the UK, electricity prices, due to large wind & solar subsidies & green levies, remain high – wind & solar energy, despite what Nick Schwab says, are not free, in fact, they’re the most expensive intermittent solution to a problem that doesn’t exist, ever – without ever increasing subsidies, there is no business case for them, as seen by the cancellation of large wind farms because national Govts won’t throw even more taxpayer money at them
And some economics journalists seem unable to link our high electricity costs to a failure of production to increase.
RingWorld Refugee…..you are somewhat DELUDED due to actually reading your bill…here’s my last power bill for my Father’s farm. Yeah, it says 16cents per kWh….but look at all the adders….ends up over $2.00 per kWh….small consumers pay dearly. Even medium consumers will find they are paying 30 cents.
Interestingly, a company named AltaLink distributes about 85% of the electricity in Alberta. Altalink stays out of the news if possibkle. It was bought by Warren Buffet for 3.2 Billion a few years back, and he makes a good chunk of that back each year…He bought it from SNC Lavalin (a big engineering company whose reputation is easily searched) who previously bought it themselves on their own recommendation to the Alberta Government to sell it. Sounds up and up right ? Now Albertan’s have amongst the highest electricity rates in the world “all-in” while claiming amongst the lowest generation costs. Makes me want to switch to solar…
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Yes and part of the reason the transmission and distribution charges are so high is that wind and solar both require significantly more infrastructure to bring their intermittent supply to the grid. Of course these costs are ignored when their devotees calculate the cost of generation but they are obviously borne by the ratepayers.
Also, you may know this already, but your dad’s farm is on the Regulated Rate which is a variable rate that changes every month and has been really high the past couple of years. I recommend moving him to the EasyMax fixed rate to avoid the insanely high spot rates. Even though the EasyMax fixed rate is high, you can cancel without penalty if rates come back down below the fixed rate. Note there are other retailers that will provide fixed rate supply as well but you need to be very careful of the early termination charges.
Every country that expresses concern over CC is creating an internal environment hostile to manufacturing and outsourcing their emissions, along with the associated jobs, to countries more open to emissions and less interested in CC…China… and China is sooooo happy about it
As long as they except the dollars and euros in exchange for what they ship to the US and Europe. As we are printing the dollar and euro like there is no tomorrow China will have to ask more of those for the same stuff they produce.. Remember that you only need to export products if you are in need of importing products.
I think we should print a bunch of Yuan and pay them in their own…then worthless…currency
Larger exports support a larger workforce with more money to spend on everything, not just imports. I’m unaware of any branch of economics that says a country must balance its imports and exports.
“accept”, surely.
Correct – the only winner will be the new Eastern superpower bloc BRICS+
Story tip:
Germany should have done what King Island claim to do, what a joke!
https://www.hydro.com.au/clean-energy/hybrid-energy-solutions/success-stories/king-island
Ah, 100% is generated with renewable diesel when I clocked on this link. Why did none of us think of that solution!
I looked at this too when the story tip arrived in my email. This is an interesting setup as it uses demand response to bleed off power if the wind turbines and solar are overproducing, thus they can overbuild wind and solar to help get through power lulls.
It probably saves a significant amount of fuel annually, but how much did it cost to build?
However much we criticize the rush to “renewables” this looks like the right way to try and do it, albeit on a relatively small scale.
I’ve been there twice Charles for 3-day visits, once in Spring and once in fall.
Both times the blades were still, as was the air.
Just a fluke?
According to their website:
I don’t know if it’s cost effective or cumulatively doing anything to lower emissions, but it seems the correct approach.
I have just looked again a few hours later and once again “the enabling technologies that improve system security”..(Does this include Diesel?)… are feeding both the wind and battery. Nice try perhaps, but I cannot help but suspect that the ratio of EROEI is close to 1.
a lot of negative KW
Well we have….
But the unsubsidized cost of biodiesel is about quadruple that of regular diesel. And I’ll bet not many of the population of 1700 heat their homes with electricity/heat pumps. Plus being a cattle and fishing community, the population will own a lot of generators.
King Island is a special place, if they could figure out how to collect cow flatulence, they could probably run their generators….
https://www.abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/quickstats/2016/LGA63410
It is real genuine mental derangement and madness
aka: ‘myopic privilege‘ (see below)
haha
Never mind Germany, I’m sure that UK now has the most expensive electricity of anywhere on this planet.
In any case, Germany is raking it in by ramping up the price of everything to do with their cars – the showroom prices and the costs of servicing and parts are simply mind-blowing – IF you can find any technicians qualified to do the work.
When a Euro6 diesel flashes up a warning light, You Are In Deep Financial Shit
Cynics recognise that they’re ‘softening up‘ the car buyer punters for when EVs are mandated, sometime soon – is it 22% of all sales by this time next year?
Else the manufacturers are regulated/punished/fined into extinction (see below)
Don’t feel too sorry for Germany.
Jesus wept ‘aerospace’
I’m sure the mothers of all the young men being slaughtered in Ukraine (on both sides) will be pleased to hear that.
Oddly enough, UK is having an ‘aerospace’ boom right now also. Egged on by a bloodthirsty and warmongering BBC
i.e. “”urban middle-class neo-liberal Left
“”The founder of Extinction Rebellion has hit out... at ULEZ
(‘somebody’ has started slashing SUV tyres, not just letting them down)
That’s ingenious, how does one use a lentil to slice up a car-tyre?
Paging Brandon: What was in that flock of C130s that came into Mildenhall last week?
Here they again – the neo liberal left.
not for the first time.
They are pathetic, puritanical and childish
The Little People fight back…
edit: linkie
I can’t believe all of the stupidity all around. I might be a remoaner.
When their must-have-PVs (and wind) laws force so much power into their grid that it routinely collapses (first, sporadically, then worse) because of instability, maybe they’ll change course. Germans ought to be smart enough to have started mothballing the critical components and documents need to resurrect their conventional power generation (sorta like they did after WWI with their armaments manufacturing). However, they would be wise to start the resurrection before the people who know how to do it are all dead.
The German people are in the main smart – their green, left wing leaders, not so much – I’m sure the ballot box will restore common sense – the AfD offer a brighter future for Germans
Germany didn’t blow up their coal fired power stations unlike the UK with moronic politicians looking on and laughing. And if they are not too slow and ignore the likes of Greenpiss and other ecofascists, then they still have 9 nuclear plants that can be restarted. At least that leaves AfD something to use should they not be banned before they can take power and stop the slow collapse of Germany.
Personally, I’m so glad that it is Germany that is showing the world “the way” . . . to mismanagement-of-energy self destruction, that is.
Although, at the rate things are going with the current Administration, the USA ain’t that far behind. 🙁
The U.S. House of Representatives and Supreme Court are pumping the brakes on The Big Guy 10% Joe “Biden Brand” Brandon’s [Whew! Getting long; I hope he slows down a little.] Leftist green schemes, Marxist CRT pandering and crony capitalist welfare programs.
The Germans and Brits might as well stay on extended holiday.
WSJ
The Economic Losers in the New World Order – WSJ
The New World Order has people like Bliar, Schwab, Gates etc running it – personally, I want no part in it – if we could rewind time by 60 years, we could prevent a lot of the left wing dystopia happening today
Roger Caiazza has an article from August 3rd, The Problem with Overbuilding Wind and Solar, which includes this graph from the Trust yet Verify blog:
At the end of his article, Roger Caiazza comes to this conclusion:
“The graph of solar and wind generation resources as a fraction of the total resources shows a characteristic shape that proves that over building wind and solar generation does not always help fulfill load requirements. Electric grid operators must match the output of generating resources at all times so this means the problem has to be addressed.
Further compounding the problem is the fact that peak loads are associated with temperature extremes that are linked to high-pressure systems that also create light winds. In other words the over-building effect is most pronounced when energy demand peaks exacerbating the risks to reliability when electricity is needed most.
At least one commenter understands the problem when he said “If we now just install three times as much, then we have more than twice too much at the peak and are almost 90% short at the lowest point”. I agree with Opdbe – I couldn’t have said it better.”
Adding to what Roger says in his article, let’s note that the standard response climate activists make to the problem of backup generation for wind and solar, in addition to pushing hard for W&S overbuild, is to claim that ‘the price of batteries is coming down rapidly.’
The counterargument is that worldwide competition for the mineral resources needed to manufacture the gigawatt-hours of battery backup capacity that will be required is sure to flatten the cost reduction curve and might at some point even cause it to reverse direction.
“the price of batteries is coming down rapidly” has the same meaning as “for a hamburger today I will happily pay you on Tuesday.”
“is to claim that ‘the price of batteries is coming down rapidly.'”
It’s always “Well this will happen so it will be ok” (i.e. unicorn farts) instead of dealing with reality as it is today. Yeah, it MIGHT happen, or it might not. I’m not going to count on uncertainties.
They’ve been claiming that battery prices are coming down rapidly for years. Had prices been falling rapidly for as long as they have been claiming, batteries should be free by now.
The truth is that there have been small drops in prices as manufacturing processes improved. However almost all of such improvements have already been wrung out of the processes. In addition the prices of raw materials used in batteries have been going up.
End result, future battery prices are going up, not down.
According to the Energy Institutes ‘Statistical Review of World Energy 2023’ the price of lithium carbonate rose 335% in 2022 to a record high of $47,000 per tonne whilst cobalt increase by 24% to $64,000 per tonne.
Renewables generators make a good income from constraint payments
This is the economy (egg).
This is the economy on green energy (egg cracked and dropped into hot griddle).
Any questions?
Yes . . . how long before the egg is cooked to the point of being inedible?
I remember when I started reading WUWT years ago. I began to wonder how bad things would have to get (economic failures due to green energy policies) before people would wise up and there would be a hard swing away from such devastating policies. That is perhaps a question I don’t want to know the answer to…. apparently Germany is a democracy where leaders are voted in, as is the UK and the US. All three countries are dealing with heavy immigration (legal and otherwise). But for the life of me I can’t imagine that even the immigrants would want to do without reliable electricity (which they probably dealt with in their countries of origin) and a stable economy. Of course, illegal immigrants aren’t supposed to vote. But one would think that legal citizens would quickly vote out politicians who stump for the green crud.
I don’t know….I just don’t get it.
Most immigrants also don’t like all that woke stuff.
The UK does not vote in the Prime Minister – it is not an elected position. It certainly should be though.
So let me see if I understand this. The Marxists “plan” to redistribute wealth by first destroying Capitalism through AGW is working. The West realize this is happening yet they not only do nothing about it they increase their involvement. If we continue down this path the collapse of Capitalism and Democracy will definitely redistribute the wealth by making everyone the same level of poor. Goal accomplished. Who really controls our governments?
Follow The Yellow Brick Road. Who has been able to print all that was needed to buy/corrupt the system.
Without the printing part all that ‘Green’ stuff would not have been possible. Printing is because you are not willing/able to pay the debt but promise free stuff. That’s why they had to get rid of the gold standard. You can’t inflate real money that easy.
There is an apt German word for this predictable situation: Schadenfreude.
You mean the Simpson’s “Ha, Ha” kid? I didn’t know he was German, Rud.
That’s Nelson Muntz, I think he means a character from ‘Peanuts’ – the one with the piano?
Linus, Lucy’s little brother. Lucy might laugh at your travails, but Linus? Never.
The German masses are waking up to the blitzkrieg of green conology – the rising popularity of the AfD is testament to the push back against green, far left wing dystopia – as history has shown many times, you can only push the mass so far and Europe has reached that precipice with a surge in right wing parties – the pendulum is starting the swing the right way
In more ways than one political meaning of ‘right.’
“Right” or “Left” both easily degenerate into totalitarianism. What’s important is if those in governing roles believe more in freedom of individuals or freedom of the government to administer to individuals, plus whether those same people are honest instead of greedy.
I really don’t much care what happens to Germany. They voted for Energiewende and antinuclear policies for at least the past 35 years. They chose this, now they’ve got it.
HL Mencken noted nearly a century ago that, “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”
Now the Germans are getting what they voted for. It’s not the first time they’ve blundered. In 1933 they made a truly ruinous democratic people’s choice. And millions of them died as a direct result.
So the results of all this economic decline will be:
1. that Germany will serve as the great, ghastly example of how to screw up big time and the consequences of letting the KGB control your Green politics; and
2. that Germans will flee the country by the millions as Germany starts to resemble the former East Germany in its economic decay. The country’s major industry has been relocating out of Germany for three decades.