By P Gosselin on 29. July 2023
“Weather situation from mid to late October”…cold and rains drown heat alarmism across Europe. Highs only in the 50s and 60s Fahrenheit.
NOAA August forecast for Europe flops!
Early in the summer, “experts” like the NOAA had predicted a record hot and dry summer was likely for Europe. The first 6 weeks of the summer, June 1st to July 16th, Germany indeed put Germany on track for a near record hot summer.
The German Green/Socialist government, yearning the days of Corona like lockdowns, could hardly contain their glee and began readying plans for a state of heat-emergency. Lockdowns again at last!
Europe’s summer turns unusually cold, wet. Source: WX Charts. Hat-tip: David Birch.
The German Green Party announced at its site:
The current heatwave comes as no surprise – it is the new normal. This year in particular – with the shocking reports from Siberia and the Arctic – shows that the climate crisis is rapidly accelerating.”
But unfortunately for the climate alarmists in Germany and Europe, the summer heat and drought have since disappeared as unusually cool, wet weather has moved in. The chances this summer will average out to be a scorcher are rapidly dwindling.
October weather in early August
At Wetternet.de, meteorologist Dominik Jung reports that October weather is forecast for next week with HIGHS only in the 50s and 60s (13°C to 20°C) by next Friday:
“The first August days, you can hardly believe that it could be a weather situation from mid to end of October,” Jung reports. Snow could even fall in the Alps at elevations over 2500 meters.
By the weekend the temperatures across Germany will plummet into the single digits. “The night from Friday to Saturday in the Alps there’s a chance of ground surface frost.”
For North Germany, temperatures will struggle to even reach the 20°C mark. Many Germans will have no choice but to turn on the heat, even though it’s the peak of summer.
NOAA August forecast flops
Back in June, what did the NOAA predict for Germany’s August, 2023? They predicted a scorcher, with temperature anomalies of near +3°C! :
Image cropped here.
That forecast has already flopped.
Of course, the miserable 14-day forecast doesn’t necessarily mean summer is already over. Hot summer days are still highly possible at the end of August and early September. But one thing is almost certain: plenty of rainfall forecast for the early part of the month means August will come in normal in terms of precipitation, or even wetter than normal.
The doomsday heat and drought summer that the lockdown-zealot alarmists had hoped for has virtually evaporated.
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The first thing the Germans need to do is to hang Angela Merkel as the traitor she indubitably is. To paraphrase Shakespeare.
The former DDR operative and her comrade KGB agent Putin literally speak the same language.
With luck a few of the coal and nuclear plants she shut down under orders from Putin might still be salvageable.
By “she”, I mean “the Commie bitch enemy of humanity”. But especially of Germany and the West.
Sadly the death penalty has been abolished in Germany. One of the few advantages of the impending Islamic takeover of Germany might be the ultimate sanction’s return. That would be poetic justice for the criminal who presided over the end of Western civilization in its former heartland.
However I doubt that Merkel’s treason was as well compensated as those of the Clinton and Biden crime families. Hers might have been more ideologically motivated, however well remunerated.
But maybe an exception could be made in her extreme case of treason, bribery and murder of the vulnerable, in the interest of enemies of her people and all humanity. If not, it should be, under the Nuremberg rules.
Don’t forget Obama’s treason, that his ardent admirers couldn’t even see when he spelled it out for them in big bold letters – “Under MY PLAN, electricity prices WILL NECESSARILY SKYROCKET.”
Completely off the topic.
Unsubstantiated, unfounded comments and uncouth.
Your comments add nothing to an intelligent discussion of climate
or how to counter the climate alarmism and speculation in Germany.
You think Merkel’s destruction of Germany’s coal and nuclear power industries has nothing to do with the “climate change” hoax?
Interesting.
I always wondered if she was a political stooge, planted long ago, in the early post wall era.
I take it you don’t like Angela, Milo. 🙂
At one meeting, Trump gave Angela Merkel a white flag, so she could use it to surrender to Putin. That was during the time Trump was warning Europe not to allow themselves to become dependent on Putin’s natural gas. They laughed at Trump at the time. They aren’t laughing now.
You think to highly of Putin.
The flip-side of the warm blob that moved across lower Europe over the last week or so…
…. and got so many alarmists in a lather and a tizz. ! 🙂
Thanks to the submarine Tonga eruption last year, which heated the stratosphere with water vapor. It took a while for that to work its way down to the troposphere and surface in both hemispheres.
Milo,
Whether the additional water vapor in the stratosphere had an effect or not, what sense does it make to claim that the recent heat dome was caused by the enhanced greenhouse effect? If it is, then how to explain the current forecast in single digits? How can the enhanced ghe cause cold weather at the same time as we’re having hot weather in the same hemisphere?
You’re not being any more logical than the alarmists.
I don’t claim that stratospheric water caused higher than normal temperatures around the globe. But it has added a degree or two to weather patterns which developed naturally.
What’s illogical about that? Water is the main GHG.
The beginning of August will bring relief from the heat in Greece.
The rainy season in Central Europe begins.
https://i.ibb.co/4RSdjjV/hgt300-1.webp
When the weather experts can not be correctly predicted the weather for 5 days, why do they try to predict the weather for 3 months and then pretend it is climate change.
When will these experts, not to mention politicians and other scientists wake up humans can not alter the weather nor are they ever going to be able too change the climate.
The earth, sun, etc. control the climate, (ok simplified).
The climate controls the weather.
The humans are just little toys in all of this.
So in years to come and the climate has not obeyed us humans what then, sacrifices of virgins to the climate??
Well, Richard Branson, at least…
Years ago, when there was destruction from weather events, such as the seas, battering down sea defences, we were reminded of the power of ‘mother nature’, and how futile our attempts to tame her were.
Yet, when it comes to climate, all of a sudden we are the almighty, powerful god.
“When the weather experts can not be correctly predicted the weather for 5 days, why do they try to predict the weather for 3 months and then pretend it is climate change.”
This is what they are paid to do, just doing their job.
You are repeating a warmunist fallacy; it is weather that controls climate no matter the ultimate cause. Since climate is average weather, how does an average control the individual values of which it is comprised?
As much as I would have loved a summer-y August, this weather hiccup does have a silver lining!
But cold and snow are just another manifestation of the new “global boiling”.
Excuse me, how does that work?
/sarc
Perfectly, but only in hysterical imaginations.
No. Believing that is the new normal.
Unfortunately, the new normal is believing what we are told.
Strictly speaking they don’t need you to believe but you damn well better parrot the party line as if you believe, and do as you’re told.
News tip
100 new licenses for North Sea oil and gas
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-66357043
Excellent.
But why – there’s next to nothing left out there. What there is is in very deep water with truly and consistently atrocious weather on top it all.
It will be horrendously expensive to bring ashore.
(They’re not drilling for oil at all, they’re fishing for votes at the next general election)
Yes, Peta, but world prices are now higher thanks to Mr. Putin. While it may be more expensive to extract than previously, the oil companies must think it now worthwhile again.
They’d previously been scaling-back exploration on the basis that they had no guarantee of making a profit if their products were likely to be banned before they got a return on their investment. This action by Sunak at least gives them some confidence that they will.
Not sure about the neccesity for, nor the costs of, the mandated carbon-capture, though. Still, it’s progress of a sort back towards commone sense…
About 15 years ago, there was an article in the New Scientists (I don’t subscribe any more, since it went climate woke) about Drax implementing a carbon capture scheme, and storing it underneath the North Sea.
Yes, I thought, but what will it cost? A few years later the project was scrapped, too expensive.
Man, I’m cranky this morning; arguing with people whom with I fundamentally agree.
Free market capitalists never rely on a guarantee of profits. It is the Leftist crony capitalist profiteers benefiting from authoritarian governmental largesse that rely on and receive guaranteed (excess) profits.
It is not Putin who is the fundamental cause of high world energy prices. It is the fecklessness of Leftist governments allowing green hysteria to guide technological, industrial and economic decisionmaking.
And if I remember, it wasn’t Putin who imposed the sanctions or blew up the pipelines.
Dave and Jon – I don’t think we’re in disagreement. Causes of our present precarious energy situation are multiple and all down to politicians of one complexion or another and their skewed thinking. Sunak has at least taken the first step toward recognising that energy independence relies upon making it worthwhile for the oil companies to invest.
These companies certainly don’t receive subsidies like the “renewables” sector, indeed if they make large profits the government steps in and taxes the hell out of them (a policy which, now that they’ve seen the light, they should probably re-think).
Short-sighted thinking made us vulnerable to acts like the invasion of Ukraine because, if we’d ignored this act and not imposed sanctions (which, I agree, caused a rise in energy prices) Putin would not have stopped at the western borders of Ukraine. Tyrants will never stop unless opposed!
“Back in June, what did the NOAA predict for Germany’s August, 2023? They predicted a scorcher, with temperature anomalies of near +3°C! ”
The temperature anomaly chart in the screenshot isn’t a forecast, it shows temperature anomalies recorded over Europe from 13th-22nd June 2023. The dates are right on the chart.
From the link, the presenter goes on to compare that period with a much cooler period in July. Where is the NOAA “forecast” for August in Germany?
Poor little FN
The cold is coming to Europe.
It’s called WEATHER.
If you think hard enough, maybe you can figure it out.
Did you see all the COLD RECORDS broken in Argentina.
So you can’t find any reference in the link to an NOAA August forecast for Germany either?
Look at my comment above and then feel rather embarrassed…
Got it. You were right, I was wrong. Fair play.
You poor stupid little thing.. you can’t even read the picture that’s in the post.
It even has the NOAA badge on it for you, and the forecast month.
It must take a lot of effort for you to be so dumb !
Na! I don’t think he has to work at it at all!
You’re right, I am stupid, otherwise I wouldn’t be posting here. What’s your excuse?
I agree that you, displaying your abject ignorance about basically everything, is a really stupid thing for you to do.
But it’s hilarious to watch 🙂
Pity that you are incapable of joining in the intellectual discussions most of the rest of us have.
You are indeed stupid, but we knew that already!
My knowledge of German is very limited but I do understand “relativ kuehler August”.
The chap shows two maps for August. I’m not able to understand the reason for two but the second one shows the whole of Germany to be white.
Again, brice2000 seems to miss the point. The point is not whether cooler weather is coming to Europe but whether the weather presenter claimed August would be hot. I strongly recommend people to watch the whole clip. Maybe somebody who has a good understanding of German can tell us what the chap says.
In amongst the mess of replies that my browser appears to have splattered all across this thread (sorry!), I gave an explanation to TFN;
The presenter demonstrates that the NOAA made an earlier prediction in June that had Europe melting of extreme heat in August. He then shows a later prediction that the NOAA made in July that has August looking a lot cooler.
Thanks for that. Yes, having another look at the video I can see that the first map has the heading “Temperaturanomalie ALT (Old)” and the second map has the title “Temperaturanomalie NEU (New)”. And I also got “neu prognose”.
The title of the video is:
Kältepeitsche! Schlimme Augustprognose mit Fröstelfaktor! Ist der Hochsommer schon vorbei?
Google translates that as:
Cold whip! Bad August prognosis with chill factor! Is midsummer already over?
“bnice2000 seems to miss the point”
As you finally figured out…
No, I didn’t. ! 🙂
“with a much cooler period in July.”
Oh dearie me.. I thought you said July was hot !
Please at least try to make a rational coherent statement… just once in your life.
The video with the dates is available for you to watch, or do you need me to do that for you too?
I refer you to my previous reply. Again, you might want to stop commenting….
So now, after all your manic caterwauling about the heat records…
… you say July had much cooler periods.
You really are suffering from massive and continual cognitive malfunction, aren’t you little nitwit.
“you need me to do that for you too?”
No, I need you to watch it and at least try to comprehend what is being said.
May take you several tries. !
If TFN is not griff, (or was it grif?), then TFN must have spent time reading griff’s posts as well as the most serious NS, whose name will not be mentioned.
Seriously though I do miss griffs posts, they added something to this forum.
Apologies for any misspelling.
So the NOAA August forecast for Germany is… where?
Oh, this is too funny…..
right in front of your eyes, fool !
He got his name when a neighbour of his was watching him repair his garden fence. He was pulling out the old split and decaying slats and nailing new ones in their place. His neighbour observed him pulling nails from a bag, looking at them and tossing 2 or 3 over his shoulder before approving one and fixing the slat in place with it. Curiosity roused, his neighbour asked why he was discarding perfectly good nails. “the heads were at the wrong end” came the reply. It was only when he got to “the final nail” that he realised his error. He could’ve used those on the other side. True story.
Are you implying that TFN is Irish?
(says he with 100% Irish forebears)
He is Irish
I’m not surprised.
My forebears backed the wrong side in every debate known to mankind.
My great-grandfather as a publican funded the shearers’ union for the duration of the 1890”s shearers strike in Australia.
Of course the union stiffed him for the money they owed when they eventually caved in.
Sent him bankrupt.
Anyone could have seen that coming.
Except an Irishman 🙁
I took this ‘name’ from the journalist James Delingpole’s old Telegraph blog, before even they booted him off, where he commonly described the latest climatic non-event as ‘the final nail in the coffin’ of global warming.
I used to post there, when I was younger and more innocent. My real name happens to be the same as someone who, at that time, had the same overall view as me but who wàs rather more verbose and confrontational than I would be. I like to keep potential global climate catastrophe light.
The “Global Warming” meme died AGES ago… hadn’t you realised that.
Yet you still keep hammering in more and more bent nails. !
Your thumbs must be really sore by now…
… which is probably why you spend your time sucking them.
No, TFN can’t be griff. TFN doesn’t fly off the handle every time Susan Crockford posts an article about how good the polar bears are doing.
No, I am not Griff. I have no idea who Griff is/was. Like me, he got a lot of things wtong.
“wtong”?
I see what you did there.
Unintentional Irishism?
Yes, we had some hot days hete in Germany, as we have now colder and rainy days, as we will have for some days, snow down to 1500 meters in the Alps.
I call that weather.
I’ve often wondered why you are so determined to flog a dead horse?
… because it is the only horse he has. !
Because it’s the only one he can catch?
Um, no. Either you haven’t been paying attention or your German isn’t very good.
As the presenter explains, the date of 13th-22nd June 2023 is essentially the date of the model run for the prediction of the August temps. You can tell it’s for August as to the top left of the map it has “August 2023” written on it. You can tell it’s an old prediction as it has the words “Temperaturanomalie ALT” written at the top. “Alt” is german for old.
He then goes on to show a newer model run done with the dates 18th -27th July 2023 that shows a newer prediction for a much cooler August. It has the words “Temperaturanomalie NEU” at the top. “Neu” is german for new.
In addition, above the map you can see the letters “CFSv2”. That is the NOAA forecast model they were using.
Happy to help.
Yes, what FN probably hasn’t got the brains to realise is that Pierre speaks German fluently and would know exactly what was being said..
Even without knowing German, it is obvious from the screen cap he gave that this chart, with all the bright orange, was the earlier forecast from NOAA.
FN is just being his normal clueless and gormless self.
I make mistakes because I can’t speak German (among many other failings); what’s your excuse, nicey?
You don’t need to speak German, petal…
Just look at the charts.
Highly likely to be beyond ability to comprehend , though.
You got that right, BCP. I misread it and got it wrong. Thanks for your correction.
accidental comment repitition. Mods: please delete this one.
accidental comment repitition. Mods: please delete this one
According to this Berlin-Dahlem time series it is also near enough to the old normal.
The monthly absolute mean temperature series for Germany since 1950 shows summers getting a bit warmer and winters more so — what’s not to like about that?
Cheaper electricity would make the occasional heat wave more endurable for most.
The annual mean in Berlin is 10C, that is 8C below Sydney where people seem to survive reasonable well.
“Sydney where people seem to survive reasonable well.”
I grew up on Sydney’s southern beaches, in the Cronulla area.
Great climate.. 🙂
Were you a shy boy or a Shire boy?
We never put the woolly jumpers away….
Indeed. Max 63.5F over the last three days in this little corner of Hertfordshire…
Little Ice Ages begin this way: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_of_1315%E2%80%931317
Mods: delete this too. My browser is evidently having a nervous breakdown!
In my neck of the woods the older folk are looking at the ‘summer’ weather like they are meeting an amusing old friend who never does what is expected especially after schools break up and who has been absent for a few years due to better summers for watching cricket. July 2023 seldom saw mid twenties even at 4pm (we may just make 21C today) and local grass is seldom greener.
Of course our MSM do mention lithium mines under consideration in Cornwall but not a word about the ship on fire and burning apart off the coast of the Netherlands loaded with cars (including EVs) which has melted much of the ship’s hull and endangered the environment.
Our MSM is been much too busy writing minor Greek Tradegies [sic].
“looking at the ‘summer’ weather like they are meeting an amusing old friend “
Kind of like…
“Oh mister blue sky please tell us why
You had to hide away for so long (so long)
Where did we go wrong?
Hey there mister blue
We’re so pleased to be with you
Look around see what you do
Everybody smiles at you” – Electric Light Orchestra, Mr Blue Sky
Yep, where I live (Suffolk, UK) this is the first July since I moved 10 years ago when the grass is not at all parched and yellow: very annoying it is too, since I keep having to mow the lawns!
The young lady in Homebase agreed that the cold and wet here is, actually, a typical British summer of the old kind. “But it never stopped us going to the beach,” she said. “It’s part of what being English is about.”
“”#1″”:The current heatwave comes as no surprise – it is the new normal
“”#2″”: By the weekend the temperatures across Germany will plummet into the single digits
Both those statements are perfectly consistent with each other and are = “normal“
It is because: That sort of normal occurs when you are living in and surrounded by ‘desert‘
Do Something About It
Reducing CO₂ emissions is NOT the right thing. Human emissions are trivial & irrelevant.
Increasing CO₂ absorptions is a step in the right direction
Could I then recommend that the Scots stop cutting down trees to make room for wind farms?!
The developers have to plant some trees elsewhere but of course they’ll all be useless boring pines.
Of course, the miserable 14-day forecast doesn’t necessarily mean summer is already over. Hot summer days are still highly possible at the end of August and early September. But one thing is almost certain: plenty of rainfall forecast for the early part of the month means August will come in normal in terms of precipitation, or even wetter than normal.
The guys at weatherbell don’t believe that “Hot summer days are still highly possible at the end of August and early September”. To quote Joe Bastardi from his last Saturday Summary concerning the cold and wet in Europe; “Summers over, here it comes”.
And according to their analogs, a cooler and wetter than normal August portends a cold and wet winter.
That’ll really put a kink in the alarmists tail. Or is that “tale”?
If the guys at Weatherbell are right in their forecast I don’t think we’ll see Nick saying; “Records aren’t a very good way of fixing climate trends. But if they keep turning up, especially big jumps, taken together they are hard to ignore.”
From the article: “The doomsday heat and drought summer that the lockdown-zealot alarmists had hoped for has virtually evaporated.”
Gone with the wind!
Now, now, you will make Clark Gable curse (albeit rather gently) in his grave.
He won’t give a damn.
And just like that,,,it was gone.
So, maybe the global boiling is over! BTW did the global boiling claim come as a result of that 100 degree measurement off Florida {hint for António Guterres, it was in Fahrenheit, not Celsius!}?
Yeah, global boiling comes and goes.
June and a few days in July were the last Hoorah of the weather before the Earth is plunged into the next glaciation. That’ll teach them greens!
Yes, but the sea is boiling. UN says so.
Yes, the weather forecast for Germany is not good.
Given the red-bordered triangles, I’d say Germany is stumbling from one climate disaster to another. Others have told me it is a transition between two different normal German weather patterns. Who to believe? Who to believe?
Meanwhile, on channel 9..
But, but, but the highest temperatures evah recorded in Human History!!!!!!!!!
“The temperatures may have been taken inside an oven, but they’re still a record.”
As grandma used to say, “Just cuz the cat had her kittens in the oven that don’t make’em biscuits.”.
I’m praying for an Indian Summer as I will be on holiday in good old Blighty
No problem. As long as it’s “boiling hot” somewhere on the planet, they are good to go.
Relative to averages that would be the Polar Urals.
October?
Is this a bad translation, or do the Germans Call August, October?
October does have the Latin root for 8, as in the Eighth month, but we have been using the Gregorian calendar for a little while recently.
I think they used to start counting the months at the equinox, and that is why October is the tenth month but has a name that seems to indicate it is 8th.