If We Imagine Really Bad Stuff, It Might Affect Crop Yields.

Gotta love this study:

Emphasis mine. Oh, and it’s all RCP 8.5 plugged into their imagineering engine.


Previous analyses of the possibility of global breadbasket failures have extrapolated risks based on historical relationships between climate and yields. However, climate change is causing unprecedented events globally, which could exceed critical thresholds and reduce yields, even if there is no historical precedent. This means that we are likely underestimating climate risks to our food system. In the case of wheat, parts of the USA and China show little historical relationship between yields and temperature, but extreme temperatures are now possible that exceed critical physiological thresholds in wheat plants. UNprecedented Simulated Extreme ENsemble (UNSEEN) approaches use large ensembles to generate plausible unprecedented events, which can inform our assessment of the risk to crops. We use the UNSEEN approach with a large ensemble of archived seasonal forecasts to generate thousands of plausible events over the last 40 years and compare the results with historically observed extreme temperature and precipitation. In the US midwest, extreme temperatures that would have happened approximately 1-in-100-years in 1981 now have a return period of 1-in-6 years, while in China, the current return period is on the order of 1-in-16 years. This means that in the US midwest, extreme temperatures that used to have a 1% chance to occur in 1981 now have a 17% chance to occur in any given year, while in China, the chance increased from 1% to 6%. Record-breaking years exceeding critical thresholds for enzymes in the wheat plant are now more likely than in the past, and these record-breaking hot years are associated with extremely dry conditions in both locations. Using geopotential height and wind anomalies from the UNSEEN ensemble, we demonstrate that strong winds over land pull dry air towards the regions these during extremely hot and dry unseen events. We characterize plausible extremes from the UNSEEN ensemble that can be used to help imagine otherwise unforeseen events, including a compound event in which high impacts co-occur in both regions, informing adaptation planning in these regions. Recent temperature extremes, especially in the US midwest, are unlikely to be a good proxy for what to expect in the next few years of today’s climate, and local stakeholders might perceive their risk to be lower than it really is. We find that there is a high potential for surprise in these regions if people base risk analyses solely on historical datasets.


Given the global interconnectedness of the world’s food system, simultaneous shocks to major food grain production areas (breadbaskets) can dramatically influence the price and availability of staple foods. Several studies have attempted to quantify the risk of multiple breadbasket failures due to climate shocks alone1,2,3. These studies have primarily extrapolated from historical patterns, quantifying the risk that climate shocks from the past could happen simultaneously in the future. However, climate change brings new and unprecedented events that can have consequences different from those experienced in the past, and history-based analyses might therefore under-estimate our current risk. In this study we depart from a focus on historical events, instead demonstrating how to visualize the risk of historically unprecedented events that might cross critical thresholds in major wheat-producing regions of the USA and China.

Most studies quantifying the risk of crop failure use historical relationships between climate and crop yields as the basis for assessing how future or unprecedented climate states might affect yields. For example2 use historical yields to define a threshold for severe water stress in maize-growing regions of the US and China, and then they examine the change in risk of this threshold using large ensembles to simulate unprecedented extremes. Estimates of the risk of multiple breadbasket failures for different crops also take this approach, first estimating climate-yield relationships from historical data, and then extrapolating yield results based on changes to temperature and precipitation variables that were historically related to yield4 In some regions, more than 50% of historical yield variability can be attributed to weather5.

However, in a changing climate, climate-yield relationships will change. Never-before-experienced climate states and unprecedented events can have greater effects on crops than might be expected from a simple extrapolation of historical association. In particular for temperature, we might expect that never-before-experienced high temperatures could cause crop loss, even if there is no historical relationship between yield and temperature. Non-linearities in the response of crops to heat stress can mean the future looks distinctly different from the past. In addition, climate stressors can combine with other pressures to threaten agricultural productivity; these include conflict, pests, disease, soil health, seed quality, and irrigation, for example.

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yields in parts of the United States and China do not show a strong relationship with temperature in observed or simulated datasets for the past6, and therefore extreme temperatures in these regions are not often included in models of potential breadbasket failure4. However, physiological models demonstrate that wheat plants are sensitive to temperature in several critical growth phases7. Generally, prolonged periods of extreme heat result in accelerated leaf senescence and a reduction in leaf expansion and radiation use efficiency. Short duration heat events are particularly harmful during sensitive development phases such as stem elongation. Heat extremes during grain filling can cause a reduction in the growth rate and the grain number8,9, while heat stress during anthesis and may result in partial or complete sterility of the florets10,11.

Simulations for the end of the century show that unprecedented temperatures are likely to affect yields as higher thresholds are crossed12 In fact, process-based and statistical models tend to agree that warming should negatively impact wheat yields13,8, and a review of different model types found agreement that global wheat yield is likely to be negatively impacted by increasing temperatures with climate change14,15. One solution to assess the impact of this nonlinearity is to use crop model simulations that can incorporate critical thresholds16,17 However, many of these crop models are developed based on historical yields, and many of them focus on annual extremes and “likely” ranges, rather than low-likelihood high-impact events.

New methods to simulate unprecedented extremes can expand our understanding of what is possible, beyond historical events. Large ensembles of physics-based climate models can provide a larger sample of “alternative realities” to calculate extreme value statistics18,19,20 One example is the UNprecedented Simulated Extremes using ENsembles (UNSEEN) approach, using large ensembles of archived forecasts to better understand extremes21.

To date, most studies of UNSEEN events or climate storylines have departed from a historical extreme event that has already happened, assessing plausible changes in frequency and magnitude (e.g. storm Desmond22). The approach has also been used to derive future impact analogs of historical events, such as a soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) drought in the future17.

The UNSEEN approach can also be used to explore synthetic events—events with no historical analog—if the models have been properly assessed for their ability to produce realistic events23. Climate storylines that illustrate how record-breaking extremes might occur can expand our imagination to capture events that are plausible, yet never before experienced. Given that adaptation to climate change tends to be prompted by people’s lived experience of extreme events24,25,26,27 visualizing such events before they happen can support preparedness and climate change adaptation.

In this study, we use the UNSEEN approach to examine storylines of unprecedented heat in two wheat-producing regions of the world’s breadbaskets, the USA and China. First, we assemble a large ensemble of archived forecasts for each region for temperature and precipitation, estimating the frequency of temperatures above critical growing thresholds. We estimate changes to the return periods of extreme temperatures with climate change, and consider the probability of a compound extreme of high temperatures and low rainfall in each region. While many other studies have focused on climate change in the far future, we explore the current-day climate, and how risks have already changed from the recent past, complementing work1.

Read the rest of this “paper” here.

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June 3, 2023 6:04 pm

Where’s the elephant in the room when you need it? I guess that it is UNSEEN.

Bryan A
Reply to  tmatsci
June 4, 2023 10:24 pm

One thing for certain, refusal to use FF based nitrogen fertilizers AND reduction/removal of CO2 from atmosphere WILL result in significantly lower crop yields

Tom Halla
June 3, 2023 6:22 pm

Booga booga booga. RCP8.5? Why not a zombie apocalypse? Very nearly as likely.

Bryan A
Reply to  Tom Halla
June 4, 2023 10:26 pm

Wait, wait, wait, waddaya mean no Zombie Apocalypse??? Damn now I’m gonna need to find another use for that new AK I ordered

Curious George
June 3, 2023 6:38 pm

Unfortunately, wheat yields have been rising as long as the IPCC exists.

No one
Reply to  Curious George
June 3, 2023 7:08 pm

Fortunately, unless you’re, maybe, gluten intolerant, and don’t recognize the interplay of commodity pricing.

I think they’d be more relevant if they’d come up with mitigations on the elephantine
effects of ‘special military operations’ and ‘centrally planned economies’ on food availability.

Mike McMillan
Reply to  No one
June 4, 2023 2:01 am

Yeah, that picture atop the page does look like Ukraine, with all the white phosphorus incendiaries.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Curious George
June 4, 2023 5:27 am

Recently Ukraine was exporting so much wheat to the EU that some EU nations blocked those shipments. Doesn’t seem like we need to worry about any shortage.

Bryan A
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
June 4, 2023 10:28 pm

Have you seen all the new Craters in the Prime Ukrainian wheat fields. It’ll be like trying to grow wheat on the moon

June 3, 2023 7:03 pm

This is where you ask what events, be specific.

Reply to  dbakerber
June 3, 2023 9:28 pm

That’s the question that never gets asked – alarmists posing as scientists can spew all kinds of apocalyptic nonsense and they are never get called out on it.

June 3, 2023 7:16 pm

Does the UNSEEN simulation code take into account the fact that the increase in CO₂ makes plants more robust in resistanting temperature extremes?

Reply to  noaaprogramer
June 3, 2023 7:17 pm


Smart Rock
June 3, 2023 7:46 pm

Once they really go to work on eliminating nitrogen fertiliser, and continue to take the most productive land in Europe back to the “wild” state, there won’t be any need for climate fantasy to generate dreams of famine. There will be real famine, all the time.

If you’re saving the planet, who cares about mass starvation? You can’t make an omelette….

Reply to  Smart Rock
June 3, 2023 8:37 pm

You got that right Smart Rock.
Our government are being pushed by the Green Party who keep them in power to TAX New Zealand farmers and growers $150 per tonne of nitrogen fertilizer .urea DAP SOA.
This just came out today and all farming groups are united against this as it will come directly off our bottom line as there is no way that consumers will pay extra.
This just goes to show how far these green idiot politicians have moved from reality.
Four billion people are fed with the food that is grown using nitrogenous fertilizer so if all countries started taxing nitrogen fertilizer food production would fall untill food shortages forced up food prices .
If nitrogenous fertilizer was banned tomorrow across the world within six months there would be millions without food and after a year at least 2 billion would be dead .
Politicians around the world are engineering a world wide famine as they believe that nitrous oxide emissions will warm the world but they just ignore facts that without nitrogen fertilizer half of the worlds population will starve.
This has not been picked up by mainstream media yet but it is far the most urgent problem that the world will face in the next five years .
Lack of food because of overpriced fertilizer leading to overpriced food.
The attack on nitrogenous fertilizer is a crime against humanity and the sooner nations realize this the sooner politicians will apply some common sense to stop this madness.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Graham
June 4, 2023 5:29 am

The farm lobby is extremely powerful in America- apparently not so much in NZ?

Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
June 4, 2023 1:08 pm

Farming and forestry exports keep New Zealand solventwith 81.4% of our exports.
With our MMP voting system the Green party hold the balance of power with less than 15% of the vote.
Farmers are in the minority and a coalition of National and Act winning our election in October might see some sanity back on the government benches .
At the moment the tail is wagging the dog ,don’t ever be fooled into Mixed Member Proportional representation.MMP.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Graham
June 4, 2023 4:33 pm

By the way, I recall from forestry school (U. Mass., Amherst)- that Monterey pine is a small pine in CA along the coast – but in NZ it grows into very nice, large trees- I think redwoods are also planted in NZ. Hopefully your national leaders will not learn of the new movement here to stop forestry called “proforestation”- which has a goal of trees having only one purpose- to sequester carbon- or you’ll lose that industry too.

Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
June 4, 2023 7:40 pm

We already have that madness pushed by the Green party who prop up our socialist leaning Labour party in government.
These idiot politicians are promoting Carbon Farming and are encouraging foreign companies to buy up good food producing land and plant it in Radiata pine ( Monterey pine) .
This is already starting to decimate farming districts and reducing exports and many jobs on farms and in transport ,meat works and ports .
This is what happens when the idiots take charge of the asylum as only the initial purchase of the farms and the planting of the pines profits New Zealand as from then on the government issues carbon credits that flow overseas .
There are some pine trees on my farm over 100 years old that are gradually decaying and falling over but I am sure within 30 years a lot of these carbon farming pines unpruned will be blown over and become fire hazards.
The theory of planting pines is that they grow quickly and se quest a lot of carbon and some time in the future our slow growing native bush will take over .
Production forestry in the right place is fine and I have two blocks ready to harvest but we rely far to much on exports of lower grade logs to China and they have to much timber on hand at this time and have dropped the export prices at our ports .
If people want to plant natives that would be OK but as they are very slow growing the returns would not pay the interest on the purchase price of the land , the planting and council rates .
I have three blocks of mature native bush on my farm that I registered with the Queen Elizabeth 11 National Trust which I cannot get any carbon credits issued to me for any increased growth. Yet these people will walk away with thousands of dollars worth of carbon credits .
The other problem that I see is that how an New Zealand claim these carbon credits against our emissions and send them overseas for some one else to pass over to say that their company is carbon neutral ?
Has anybody trading in carbon credits any ides how this works or is this just a ponzi scheme ?

June 3, 2023 7:54 pm

During the PETM, 5-8C hotter than today, conditions were so benign monkeys rapidly colonised much of the world.


But we humans are obviously too dumb to replicate the success of our monkey ancestors. 1-2c warming is going to kill us all /sarc

Reply to  Eric Worrall
June 4, 2023 6:55 am


What Did The World Look Like In The Last Ice Age?
What did the world look like during the last ice age?
Was it all endless glaciers and frozen ice?
The answer is a partial yes—with some interesting caveats.
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), colloquially called the last ice age, was a period in Earth’s history that occurred roughly 26,000 to 19,000 years ago..
This map by cartographer Perrin Remonté offers a snapshot of the Earth from that time, using data of past sea levels and glaciers from research published in 2009, 2014, and 2021, alongside modern-day topographical data.

Reply to  Eric Worrall
June 4, 2023 1:19 pm

Here and there, perhaps especially at https://realclimatescience.com/ there have been newspaper photos of people suffering the temperatures of rather extreme heat waves much earlier than the beginning of the current climate scare. Many men are seen to be wearing the styles of the day which included long sleeves shirts, vests, ties, and hats. Women may have suffered even more under all that body cloaking clothing. This demonstrates that those long ago monkeys were undoubtedly more intelligent in dealing with higher temperatures.

June 3, 2023 7:55 pm

What a load of hog wash’
The people writing this nonsense know nothing about wheat growing .
In many cold parts of the world wheat is planted in the late autumn and is called winter wheat .
It is well developed by early summer and can survive warm and dry conditions .
Wet cold conditions when wheat is ready to harvest can cause major losses of yield and quality.
If conditions did change wheat growers would adapt by planting earlier in autumn.
Maize has to be planted in the spring as it is frost tender and the average yield depends on the accumulated heat units from planting to tasseling so more will be better .
Droughts could be a problem but how can a warmer atmosphere that holds more water vapour lead to more droughts? It cannot as more water vapour has to equal more rain.
I have been growing maize for nearly 60 years and I grew wheat for around 20 years which was spring sown in the North Island of New Zealand .
Our nearest neighbor Australia has had little or no warming for many years and their wheat yields are increasing year on year with the last two years at a record 2.8 tonnes per hectare .
So much for this sort of scare mongering so called study.
We had a late spring frost that decimated a lot of Kiwi fruit and other horticultural crops in the Bay of Plenty in 2022 and our now departed PM Jacinda blamed the frosts on climate change .
Blame every thing climate on climate change .Less rain and droughts. More rain and floods.
Little snow fall and then late frosts . They blame it all on global warming- climate change .

June 3, 2023 8:33 pm

RCP 8.5 Garbage piled on more garbage

Dave Andrews
Reply to  DStayer
June 4, 2023 9:30 am

Even the BBC acknowledges that RCP 8.5 is unrealistic!

June 3, 2023 9:11 pm

This “paper” is basically saying “don’t look at actual data and trends, trust our computer projections based on unlikely inputs instead.” Nothing dodgy about that…

Geoff Sherrington
June 3, 2023 9:26 pm

Charles the Moderator,

You tease, presenting several papers in a few days that show the capability of stupidity when the wrong people are paid to proiduce it. The example on this thread evokes, of course, but one quote, from the mathematician Charles Dodgson writing “Alice in Wonderland”.
Geoff S

… Alice answers, “I’m seven and a half exactly.”
“You needn’t say ‘exactly’,” the Queen remarked: “I can believe it without that. Now I’ll give you something to believe. I’m just one hundred and one, five months and a day.”
“I can’t believe that,” said Alice.
“Can’t you?” the Queen said, in a pitying tone. “Try again; draw a long breath, and shut your eyes.”
Alice laughed.
“There is no use trying,” said Alice; “one can’t believe impossible things.”
“I dare say you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was your age, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”

Steve Case
June 3, 2023 9:32 pm

“There are known knowns. 
These are things we know that we know. 
There are known unknowns. 
That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. 
But there are also unknown unknowns. 
There are things we don’t know we don’t know.”
Donald Rumsfeld

And then there are people who make shit up.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Steve Case
June 4, 2023 6:36 am

And then there are the unknown knowns. Things that everyone knows and only a professor can forget and convince themselves aren’t true.

Jim Karlock
June 3, 2023 10:54 pm

Look at actual data and recognize the fact that the “climate crisis” is the biggest scam in human history! 

Here are some true climate facts from the IPCC & other credible sources (details below): 
• There has been less than one degree of warming from 1850 to 2012 (WG1AR5_all_final.pdf, Pg. 209 )
• There is no evidence that hurricanes have increased  (WG1AR5_all_final.pdf, pg 178 )  
• There is no evidence that storms have increased   (WG1AR5_all_final.pdf, pg 178)
• There is no evidence that sea level rise has increased  (WG1AR5_all_final.pdf, Page 306) 
• There is no evidence that floods have increased  (WG1AR5_all_final.pdf, pg 230)
• There is no evidence that droughts have increased  (WG1AR5_all_final.pdf, pg 178)
• Man emits 6% of CO2 emissions, nature 94%  (NASA’s carbon cycle chart)
• CO2 causes ONLY about 1/3 of the warming.  (BAMS, Vol. 78, No. 2, February 1997) 
• It is not possible to predict future climate.  (TAR-14.pdf, Page 771)
(Links to evidence are below)

Fact is that there is nothing unusual about today’s climate and thus nothing to explain with man’s CO2. 

These well respected sources debunk several popular lies about climate: 
Quotes & Facts from the IPCC (which is considered the bible of climate), NASA & the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.  
(You may have read other claims from the IPCC, usually from the Summary For Policy Makers without knowing that the summary is actually a political document written, line by line, by politicians from many countries including those looking for cash handouts. The below is from the science part of the report.)

1. Earth only warmed 0.78 degree C up to 2012. (1850 to 2012=0.48 C/century)
“Using Had-CRUT4 and its uncertainty estimates, the warming from 1850–1900 to 1986–2005 (reference period for the modelling chapters and Annex I) is 0.61 [0.55 to 0.67] C (90% confidence interval), and the warming from 1850–1900 to 2003–2012 (the most recent decade) is 0.78 [0.72 to 0.85] C (Supplementary Material 2.SM.4.3.3).”
Pg. 209 of https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_all_final.pdf

2. Man emits about 6% of total emissions. 
Add the numbers on this NASA diagram: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/CarbonCycle/page1.php

3. CO2 causes only about 26-32% of the greenhouse effect. H2O causes 60-75%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect#Greenhouse_gases which is based on Table 3 of: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 78, No. 2, February 1997 –

4. We do not have enough data to say that hurricanes have increased.
“Confidence remains low for long-term (centennial) changes in tropical cyclone activity, after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities.”
pg 178 of https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_all_final.pdf

5. We do not have enough data to say that storms have increased. 
“Confidence in large-scale trends in storminess or storminess proxies over the last century is low owing to inconsistencies between studies or lack of long-term data in some parts of the world (particularly in the SH). {2.6.4}”
pg 178 of https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_all_final.pdf

6. No evidence that normal sea level increase has accelerated.
(Note that sea levels have been rising since the end of the last ice age – the issue is whether it is rising faster.)

“When a 60-year oscillation is modeled along with an acceleration term, the estimated acceleration in GMSL since 1900 ranges from: 0.000 [–0.002 to 0.002] mm yr–2 in the Ray and Douglas (2011) record, 0.013 [0.007 to 0.019] mm yr–2 in the Jevrejeva et al. (2008) record, and 0.012 [0.009 to 0.015] mm yr–2 in the Church and White (2011) record. Thus, while there is more disagreement on the value of a 20th century acceleration in GMSL when accounting for multi-decadal fluctuations, two out of three records still indicate a significant positive value. The trend in GMSL observed since 1993, however, is not significantly larger than the estimate of 18-year trends in previous decades (e.g., 1920–1950). “
Page 306 of https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_all_final.pdf  

7. No evidence that floods have increased (per IPCC) 
“AR4 WGI Chapter 3 (Trenberth et al., 2007) did not assess changes in floods but AR4 WGII concluded that there was not a general global trend in the incidence of floods (Kundzewicz et al., 2007). SREX went further to suggest that there was low agreement and thus low confidence at the global scale regarding changes in the magnitude or frequency of floods or even the sign of changes.”
pg 230 of https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_all_final.pdf

8. No evidence that droughts have increased 
“Confidence is low for a global-scale observed trend in drought or dryness (lack of rainfall) since the middle of the 20th century, owing to lack of direct observations, methodological uncertainties and geographical inconsistencies in the trends.”
pg 178 of https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_all_final.pdf

9. Prediction of future climate is not possible.
“The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. “ https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/501.htm (IPCC third Assessment Report (2001) Section, page 774) and Page 771, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/TAR-14.pdf

This shows that THERE IS NO CLIMATE EMERGENCY. And that, most likely, our climate is unaffected by man’s CO2.
If you think there is a climate emergency, please show us actual evidence that man’s CO2 is causing serious global warming.

June 3, 2023 11:28 pm


Solar panels – an eco-disaster waiting to happen?

In many cases, solar units become relatively uneconomical before they reach the end of their expected lifespan. New, more efficient designs evolve at regular intervals, meaning it can prove cheaper to replace solar panels that are only 10 or 15 years old with updated versions.

Did the British Biased Corporation just acknowledge what climate sceptics have been saying for many tears?

June 3, 2023 11:43 pm

“Extreme temperatures…”

Missing so far this year. Everything I planted is about 3 weeks late. Funny how the well mixed CO2 only radiates in certain places at different times.

Capt Jeff
June 3, 2023 11:50 pm

Does wheat grow under solar panels? Maybe that’s the problem!
The fact that 24 of our state’s highest temperature records were set in the 1930’s and Only about 4 high temperature records have been set in this century. So we’ve been going in the wrong direction so far with the extreme heat thingy. Is it the nighttime highs, that are the larger component in the increase of daily averages, the problem?
I recommend that you all send me some💰 and invest in my plan to grow wheat in Greenland.

June 4, 2023 1:27 am


ie Synthetic

June 4, 2023 5:10 am

I might be bothered to read this…

Joseph Zorzin
June 4, 2023 5:39 am

wow, that’s gotta be the dumbest climate alarmist “science paper” I’ve ever seen

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
June 4, 2023 5:42 am

even if the science was good and it isn’t – the paper is poorly written- nothing but climate alarmist cliches, buzzwords and blah, blah, blah- trying hard to sound sciency

Dave Andrews
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
June 4, 2023 9:35 am

Did they get Chat GPT to draft it along those lines you mention? 🙂

William Howard
June 4, 2023 6:13 am

never mind that,as reported in WUWT, crop yields are way up, the earth is greener, and land the size of the US has been reclaimed from deserts, all due to a little more CO2 in the atmosphere – so the world gets to experience what green house growers achieve when they inject CO2 into their green houses

Jim Gorman
June 4, 2023 6:22 am

Even untrained agronomists can have an opinion I guess. However, it is more than likely that the opinion will be wrong!

Do these “studies” of things that might occur ever get reviewed by people who understand agronomy?

First, anyone familiar with wheat harvest in the U.S. knows that it starts in Texas and moves northward into Canada throughout the summer. When I was growing up, that was a good way to earn money during the summer for school in the fall. Anyway, the temperatures over that geographic distance vary considerably. Much more than what this study considered.

Second, the important dates for length of growing season are the Last Spring Frost date and First Fall Frost date. These have been changing to allow longer growing seasons due to rising minimum temperatures, not hot days.

Thirdly, these folks have no idea of the number of seed varieties for grain crops. They vary by temperature, soil conditions, rain expectations, etc.

See the following links for information that refutes this paper.


Hard winter wheat seed varieties
2022ArrowWheatVarieties.pdf (arrowseed.com)

June 4, 2023 8:00 am

“Extrapolations,” 2023, is an eight episode TV show which is watchable, but for which the viewer must suspend disbelief as Earth becomes increasingly inhospitable to life in spite of the human population continuing to grow. Hmmm. The best part came at the end, when a villainous climate denier who saved humanity was put on trial for breaking the ex post facto law against raping Gaia or somesuch. Be sure not to miss the shenanigans in Episode 7, when Toby Maguire and Marion Cotillard have “touchless” sex in the kitchen. Don’t worry, supper was finished, so nothing got in the food.

Andy Pattullo
June 4, 2023 8:48 am

First few sentences of the abstract make it clear this is a work of fantasy, not science.

Tom Abbott
June 4, 2023 9:30 am

From the article: “However, climate change is causing unprecedented events globally,”

No. There is no evidence human-caused climate change/CO2 (that’s what they mean) is the cause of any weather event. There is no evidence the Earth is experiencing unprecedented weather or warming.

The evidence points the other way: That extreme weather events are becoming less frequent and are not unprecedented having happened to the same degree in the past, and the Earth is no warmer today than in the recent past, so the warming isn’t unprecedented, either.

Nothing to see here.

June 4, 2023 10:15 am

Banning nitrogenous fertilizer is the most serious risk we face.

June 4, 2023 10:22 am

Another calamity that MIGHT occur due to models. Anything can happen in a model programmed with unseen parameters. We must end our prosperity because…simulations.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  slowroll
June 5, 2023 4:10 am

“We must end our prosperity because…simulations.”

Good one! It illustrates the absurdity of the climate alarmists.

June 4, 2023 12:18 pm

UNSEEN- exactly!

Ulric Lyons
June 9, 2023 2:54 am

“However, climate change brings new and unprecedented events….”

A rise in CO2 forcing may amplify a heat event, but not create new heat events!

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