It’s obvious to any person with the faculty of critical thinking that intermittent renewable “green” energy will never work to power a modern economy. So as various U.S. states and foreign countries press forward on their crash programs to go fully “green” with their electricity generation, the next obvious question immediately arises: who will be first to hit the green energy “wall”? That is, which state or country will be the first to find that without enough reliable generation its electricity system no longer works? And how will that impact the population?
In previous posts I have examined the progress toward energy disaster of various wealthy jurisdictions that have embarked on this supposed transition to renewable electricity. For example, here is a December 17, 2021 post titled “Which Country Or U.S. State Will Be The First To Hit The Renewable Energy Wall?” That post focused on California and Germany. My March 15, 2023 post, “Countdown To New York’s Rendezvous With Energy Impossibility,” considered New York as another candidate for the first to hit the wall.
But let’s now look at South Africa. South Africa is one of the wealthiest countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, which is not saying much. The World Bank gives its per capita GDP as about $7000 for 2021. (For comparison, the U.S. per capita GDP is around $70,000. while wealthier European countries like Germany, the UK and France have per capita GDP in the range of about $40,000 – $50,000.).
Unlike wealthy Western countries, South Africa is far from completely developed, and has never achieved a fully-built-out electrical grid. The country has a legacy electricity infrastructure, almost entirely based on coal generation, dating from prior to the accession to power of the ANC in 1994. But South Africa needs a big increase in its electricity supply to become a fully-developed economy. Its population has grown rapidly (from about 43 million in 1994 to 60 million today). Meanwhile its electric utility, Eskom, is heavily indebted with little further ability to raise private capital. Thus the country substantially relies on Western aid to support and expand its supply of electricity. As an example of what is occurring in the realm of Western aid for electricity infrastructure, the World Bank stopped financing coal power plants in 2013 and stopped financing oil and gas extraction projects in 2017.
And thus South Africa has become a mostly-willing guinea pig for the green dreams of Western elites. According to Climate Home News from September 19, 2020, the South African government put out a so-called Integrated Resources Plan in 2019 “outlin[ing] a transition from polluting coal generation to renewable sources like solar and wind.” In September 2020, according to the same CHN piece, “the South African cabinet . . . approved a goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050.” South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is on record on multiple occasions over the past several years as supporting a Net Zero transition for his country.
On the ground in electricity generation in South Africa, here’s what I can learn. The New York Times reports on March 14, 2023 that over the past decade plus, since the wind/solar fad took hold, the country’s coal power plants have been allowed to become “dilapidated” due to poor maintenance and disinvestment. Meanwhile, the focus going back as far as the turn of the century has moved to developing wind and solar resources to provide electricity. A December 2021 piece from the Alexandria Engineering Journal provides a comprehensive overview of the growth in renewables in South Africa. The initial demonstration wind project was constructed by Eskom in 2002. Here is the lengthy list of wind projects subsequently completed:
Nor has South Africa lagged in the march to solar energy. From the same piece in the Alexandria Engineering Journal, here is a list of solar projects (for some reason not including the years, but they are almost entirely post-2010):
So surely by now the wind and sun must be providing the abundant and nearly-free electricity for all? Hardly. Here is a pie graph of the current electricity generation mix, stated to be based on data from the UN’s International Energy Agency:
Yes, after all of that effort, the wind generation is up to a full 2% of South Africa’s electricity, and solar 1%. And, from CNN, January 18:
South Africans have endured power cuts for years but 2022 was the worst on record with 205 days of rolling blackouts, as aging coal-fired power plants broke down and state-owned power utility Eskom struggled to find the money to buy diesel for emergency generators. So far this year, there have been outages every day. The situation worsened again last week when Eskom said it would implement more cuts because of breakdowns at 11 coal-fired generating units.
According to CNN, any individual home or business is getting hit with about 12 hours a day without power, generally coming in increments of about 4 hours at a time, and often without notice. It’s disgusting to watch what the self-important international functionaries are doing to this poor country. But at least we’re learning what the green energy “wall” looks like in practice.
UPDATE, April 26, 2023: Here are a couple of useful addenda that I came across in the process of research for this post.
First, from Energy News Report, November 21, 2022:
The World Bank has approved $497 million in loans and other assistance to finance decommissioning and repurposing of one of the world’s largest coal-fired power plants—the 1,000-MW Komati facility in South Africa that is owned by its largest public power utility, Eskom. The Komati plant, permanently shut down in October, will be repurposed for 220 MW of renewable energy, including a 150-MW solar photovoltaics facility, 70 MW of wind power generation and150 MW of onsite storage batteries, “which together will help to improve the quality of electricity supply and grid stability” said the bank.
And second, from Macrotrends, South Africa GDP per capita, 1960-2021:
Funny how all that “free” electricity and near-daily blackouts don’t lead to rapidly increasing per capita GDP. Instead, it’s the further impoverishment of already-poor people.
I really believe the greens are more than a bit racist. Let “those people” use wind and solar.
Oh, they’re more than happy to make you use it too! They just have to fly to the next global conference and pass the regulations to make it happen.
Diversity (i.e. color judgment, class-based bigotry) writ large. It’s an ethical religious orientation.
Is it racist when all peons are treated equally? A prole is a prole, right?
Besides, it is not racist when the progressives discriminate.
Another great Reality Check from Francis Menton. The Virtue Signaling CAGW Loonies (add corrupt to Loonie) can’t be that stupid, they are fanatics for a reason. Wait for it.
Interesting, but not helpful in describing the actual loss of 24/7 electric service. The magnitude of installed, intermittent green capacity does not reflect the actual “green” energy delivered to the daily or weekly load curves.
Daily blackouts are apparently caused by poorly maintained fossil fuel and the intermittent nature of solar/wind sources.
Whatever other points made, also show typical uninterrupted daily and weekly load/demand curves annotated with the actual delivered capacity from coal and wind/solar .
The visual voids of generation failures will identify the blackout periods…and hopefully communicate to anyone interested that blackouts are avoidable with more well-maintained fossil fuel capacity…and clearly not helped by solar/wind no matter how much is installed.
An dependable, predictable, available 24/7 electrical system is a prerequisite to maintaining and growing an economy.
Just looked at a report summarizing SA electricity by source. The capacity factors for wind and solar are pretty good at > 25 -30% but the coal capacity factor is aroid 50% and has been declining. So it seems obvious that they’re spending all their money on Wind/Solar while their coal plants are falling apart. With coal being almost 90% of the system capacity it’s obvious why they’re short of capacity. In the last decade or so all the renewables they have added amounts to less than the growth in demand that would have been expected. So any decline in coal capacity translates immediately to supply shortfall. I’ve known a couple of very good SA engineers over the years – perhaps they’ve all left SA.
Yes, but of course the right solution would be to get the coal plants refurbished and into proper working order, and build more to keep up with demand.
The Eco-Nazi solution, of course, will be to build more worse-than-useless wind and solar facilities and close down the coal plants, which will make the SA grid both less reliable and more expensive.
But hey, the “right” cronies will profit as the country suffers. Just like everywhere else where worse-than-useless wind and solar make significant inroads.
Suggestion: When there is a lack of electricity due to an overzealous attempt to rely on “green” energy, refer to it a a “Green-Out” to remind people where the blame actually lies.
It doesn’t matter how much power can be generated from whatever source if there is no longer any reliable distribution infrastructure.
Not just racist, the Climastrology true believer is filled with hatred and self-loathing; after all if you believe in carbon as a pollutant, what does that make all carbon-based life forms?
Just as they have spindled, folded and mutilated the US Constitution; the sociopaths and psychopaths leading GangGreen would rather destroy life on Earth than allow humanity to grow and prosper to our capabilities! Capabilities dependent on inexpensive, readily available energy, and needed to avert the extinction of our biosphere in the near geologic future due to severe CO2 depletion!
The Club of Rome has got that covered:
These posts from Francis Menton are nuggets of good sense. Greatly appreciated.
Common sense isn’t going to win the day on this one. Common sense is being censored, and everybody with any common sense knows it.
“”which state or country will be the first to find that without enough reliable generation its electricity system no longer works””
Who will blink first? Difficult to say as none of the elites themselves will have to suffer the consequences. Which people will kick off first is a more pertinent question
Might be a lot closer to home than anyone imagines:
BBC Headline:“Bank of England economist says people need to accept they are poorer
And there’s the BoE guy telling everyone not to ask for pay rises, work harder and not retire till they drop.
All the while UK Government tells people they’ve got to
…..and then on top of that….
As I discovered more by accident than design just recently, car manufacturers/dealers are ramping up the prices of ICE cars because folks want them in preference to electrics.
Obviously Gov does nothing except lap up all the extra tax revenue, happy in the knowledge that what the dealers are doing is making EVs look cheap.
How Do We Get These Parasites Off Our Backs
Otherwise e.g. When Rome fell apart, the world went into a dark age that was what, 1,000 years long?
I didn’t get the government message – a lot of people didn’t
Another failure
Neither did I.. possibly because I turned my phone off.
“Bank of England economist says people need to accept they are poorer”
Yes. Remember Brexit?
Apparently all the no-brexit crowd didn’t get out of bed to go and vote ‘no’, so they lost.
Yes. And so now people need to accept that they are poorer. Including the ones that got out of bed.
ick,
People are poorer because fewer people are producing wealth and more people are spending it, particularly the bureaucracy.
The double wammy is that the beaucracy is not spending it wisely, so the creation of more new wealth is handicapped like never before in my lifetime.
But why do you care, you HATE the poor.
BTW how many immigrants have come into the UK adding to the welfare state since Brexit?
How much unreliable power has been installed since Brexit?
How little natural gas is being produced in a country that can be NG independent?
How much money is being wasted replacing efficient NG appliances and heating systems with expensive inefficient heat pumps?
How much arable land has been removed from possible usage by the installation of solar?
Is the UK poorer because of Brexit or stupid policies of the government. I think even you Nick can determine the truth, even though your religions, Liberalism and Climastrology do not allow you to think the “impossible”.
Nothing to do with Brexit. Lots to do with humungous waste on covid lockdowns and net zero policies.
The Brexiteers have been running the country.
No, politicians have been running the country. ALL of the “ruling” class opposed Brexit. Much like all of the ruling class in the US oppose TRUMP!
Since the referendum, all prime ministers have sup[ported Brexit. And they implemented it.
But yes, well-informed people opposed it.
Are you suggesting that EU countries are wealthier than non-EU countries, just because of the extra layer of un-elected bureaucracy? Do you have any data to back that up? Because I’m not seeing it:
GDP, corrected for PPP, per capita, by country
On your map, even Ireland is wealthier than UK.
That’s because Ireland is a low tax rate economy. It attracts huge inward investment and great jobs – like Luxembourg does – because it has a low corporation tax rate. The EU tried its very best to stop Ireland doing that. Frustratingly, the U.K. could do the same as Ireland but because we don’t have a proper conservative government (or one of any colour which understands economics) we will have to watch other countries scooping up the multinational tax cash.
Yes, it is, but then the UK is still wealthier than Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Spain, and Portugal. And not any poorer than France or Italy. Still not seeing an “EU wealth boost”. Maybe there is more than one factor at play?
The situation in the EU is hardly one to be happy about.
The Union’s debt position has a hockeystick curve that is real.
Its also on the frontline of another European hot war.
https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/government-debt
It would seem that the EU is entering a period of stagflation.
Even if now doing badly, the UK is better on its own to trade with Pacific Rim countries and the parts of the EU that remain economic.
Its true that a supply shortfall of carbon based fuel will cause inflation, just as demolishing all the sunk capital power infrastructure.
But then it could reach carbon based fuel independence just like Biden and open up the equivalent of Arctic and littoral gas supply, thus reducing the price.
It should be observed that widespread introduction of solar/wind generation has been followed by immediate, large rate increases on all electricity ratepayers in every country thus far. There are no exceptions to this rule. The most glaring examples of this were Ontario (Canada), Texas, California (United States), Great Britain, Germany, Denmark, Australia. This has been accompanied by a decline in reliability for all of these nations. So what can we say about power sources which have failed every single time they have been deployed?
Your point deserves an full article. A good info-graphic showing before-and-after energy bills plus a well framed analogy would kill.
My personal favorite is that they are “worse-than-useless.”
While this article correctly points out the woeful state of affairs in South Africa on the electricy front it does a great injustice to the country by making no mention of the incredible achievements in the country from after WW1 till 1990. One person needs to be singled out, the brilliant H J van der Bijl.
A century ago General Smuts, the South African Prime Minister, persuaded van der Bijl to form a national electricity supply undertaking and he became chairman in March 1923. He dedicated his life to the industrialization of the country by focussing on provision of adequate and economical supplies of electric power and steel. If the country continued in his footsteps, South Africa could have been among the top industrial countries in the world today. The leaders chose not to follow an engineer and scientist but their political ideology leading the country into a wasteland.
A brief bio https://ethw.org/Hendrik_van_der_Bijl. or
A Biography of H.J. van der Bijl by Alice Jacobs 1948
For his scientific work The Remarkable Dr. Hendrik van der Bijl an IEEE paper by Dirk Vermeulen
all are available online.
“The leaders chose not to follow an engineer and scientist but their political ideology leading the country into a wasteland.”
Follow the science?
H J van der Bijl was an engineer and scientist – not like many today with their demands to blindly follow the science. Rather he was in the same mould as someone like Michael Faraday who performed experiments before believing the science.
I can recall (we were in rural Pennsylvania) missionaries from Africa coming to church services in the 1950s asking for contributions to their mission of helping the impoverished of — pick a tribe,group, or nation of Africa.
75 years later the only change is the massive size of the ($$) contributions.
It is too terrible. Everybody is getting depressed about the outages. I sent this to the new minister of electricity:
https://breadonthewater.co.za/2023/02/17/lets-go-nuclear/
An economic takedown of worlds 32nd largest economy, with mention of high population growth, screamed “baiting” to me, and I read with a chip on my shoulder, but the word use looked careful and fair. Lets see which commenters jumped on the headline to write …
Very nice report Francis. The most important thing you said is this.
“It’s obvious to any person with the faculty of critical thinking that intermittent renewable “green” energy will never work to power a modern economy.”
We need to speak in clear straightforward language that everybody can understand. The time for soft pedaling our message is past. We need to blurt it out and dare the other side to show us where we are wrong, to our face publicly of course. Don’t want to let those cowards hide behind the media, mainstream or social.
Hydro.
When did the Greens start claiming hydro power was “green” and why?
To pad the numbers?
Why aren’t they calling for building more dams instead of solar panels and windmills?
Unfortunately, hydro is restricted by topography. Nuclear is not.
the greens don’t want more dams – the claim is it’s bad for the fish, blah, blah, blah- now their mission is to take down dams- have “natural” rivers, blah, blah
Liddell is down and out but the big news in Australia today is:
https://au.news.yahoo.com/crucial-trend-behind-power-price-020000418.html
But this article does not go on to mention that retail prices are up by as much as 26%. There is a hint here:
They now need even more money spent on the transmission system that already costs a fortune and is around 60% of the retail bill.
The other not so obvious factor is that the cost of LGCs and STCs (the government sanctioned theft) is added at retail level. The cost of LGCs is currently running at $66/MWh. The more “renewable” in the system, the higher the theft from consumers.
You will not find any mention of the cost of LGCs impacting on retail prices in popular press.
“But this article does not go on to mention that retail prices are up by as much as 26%.”
Yes. Because retailers generally have long term supply contracts, the effect of the price peak is delayed. But contracts run out.
The first emphasised point in that AEMO quarterly report was
“Wholesale spot prices across the National Electricity Market (NEM) averaged $83/megawatt hour (MWh) in Q1 2023, with the average quarterly price varying from $56/MWh in Victoria to $104/MWh in Queensland. Mainland region price differences exhibited the same divide seen in recent quarters, with the northern regions of Queensland and New South Wales having higher average prices than the southern regions of South Australia and Victoria.”
Vic and SA went with renewables, famously blowing up coal plants. NSW and Qld stuck with coal.
Nick,
Please look at this graph with official Australian Bureau of Statistics data.
The retail electricity price (tan colour) started a huge increase about 2008, both in absolute terms and in comparison with the basket of goods named the Consumer Price Index (blue line),
The rise was caused dominantly by political decisions to create a second electricity generation system misleadingly named “renewable”. Of course it is more expensive to have duplicate generation. The question is, was it a gain? Clearly, no. Industries have left Australia because electricity has become expensive and unreliable since 2008.
It is pointless to argue, like you just did, about recent frill around the economic edges, when the findamental analysis is so damning.
Strange that you write so little about what is capable of electricity production when the wind does not blow and the sun does not shine. Dreamin’ stuff, is all we have heard so far.
Geoff S
Well, Geoff, here is another graph from the ACCC (2021) which doesn’t look like that at all. In particular it has retail coming down from 2013, when renewables really started up.
But Nick,
You are showing only the later times of my graph. Mine starts 1980, yours starts 2007-8.
The 2 graphs are much the same shape if you look only post-2007.
My graph also shows a drop in 2013, but that was when my supplier started offering large concessions that might not be included in your numbers or mine..
Look at your graph, how environmental “prces” have trebled in the last 15 years that you show.
In short, you have cut out the golden years.
Why did you do this?
You miss the whole point of my observation of the huge leap that started with “renewables” in 2007-8 or so. That is what I was stressing.
Geoff S
Geoff,
“the huge leap that started with “renewables” in 2007-8 or so”
Well, wind was going by then, less than a quarter of now. Solar nothing till 2010. But if renewables were driving that rise, why did it stop and go into decline since 2013, with renewables still accelerating?
Nope – wrong again. The fall in price followed Abbott’s axing of the carbon tax. Look it up. Also your chart ends in 2021 before the most recent rises.
The chart that Geoff supplied shows the price fell through the 1990s after the State monopolies on power supply were broken up, which allowed cross border trading and competitive generation. Then prices started its climb from the time intermittent were permitted on the grid in early 2000s.
The acceleration in price started with Rudd increasing the RET and then Gillard bringing in the carbon tax.
If you believe that the retail electricity price in Australia is going to come down, you are deluded. Someone has to pay for the STCs my rooftop PVs and all the other “renewable” mandated theft.
There will be another climb in prices now that Liddell is out of the system and the gap between wholesale and retail will widen because greater penetration of intermittents translates to greater mandated theft from the poor.
At some point even the brain dead reporters will wonder why their electricity bills are going up while they are reporting prices coming down. They’re thick as two bricks.
“The fall in price followed Abbott’s axing of the carbon tax.”
The carbon tax came and went within about a year. Retail prices fell between 2013 and 2021, the period of massive renewables growth. They spiked in 2022 because of the rise in price of coal and gas, following the war in Ukraine. That has now subsided.
Most do but there is an inevitable widening gap between wholesale and retail price. Every MWh produced by “renewables” currently garners theft of $66 from the poor to those who own a roof with PVs or own wind and solar farms. This theft occurs at retail level. It does not show up in the wholesale. Neither does all the other expensive infrastructure to support remote wind and solar farms, which is adding ever more to the gap between retail and wholesale.
The only slightly promising news from AEMO is:
So those who own a roof are taking action to isolate themselves from the skyrocketing price and shifting an ever increasing burden onto those who cannot afford a roof and the PVs needed to make some of their own.
The uptake of rooftop solar will eventually kill investment in wind and solar farms because they cannot compete with generation that does not respond to wholesale price signals. The distributers have woken up to this and are installing suburban batteries to remain relevant.
Proves my point perfectly. SA and Vic have the highest retail price. Both NSW and Queensland have retained some of their heavy industry. Victoria and South Australia have the highest State government debt burden
https://adepteconomics.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/State-budget-update-30-June-22.pdf
SA and Victoria have been faster to shift their manufacturing to China, where they will continue to increase coal consumption to meet the demand for “renewables” in the full realisation all this “renewable” stuff is a massive energy sink. It has become the drug of choice for the western zealots and China is obliging.
Do not feel one tiny tingle of sympathy for the South Africans. They vote for this.
My take is that they were crazy not to team up with China. The latter could care less about human rights, just profitable investments. Imagine if they just doubled down on coal, like China is doing.
Sounds like a good description of what’s happening a little north of South Africa, in Zimbabwe. I doubt most South Africans would want to move to Zimbabwe.
Yes, they did vote the ANC into government, but unless you live in Africa, you have no idea what the level of intimidation is like. For instance, in my small local municipal area, encompassing two very small towns, in the last four years alone, three elected leaders have been shot to death outside their homes. This is REAL intimidation.
Western democracy or representative government is simply not part of the African culture or mindset. Civic society is controlled by thousands of “chieftains” whom the local populace obey implicitly. If they don’t, they are denied housing, water, electricity, employment and even education for their kids – that is, if they survive the beatings, which many do not.
It really IS “a jungle out there”, which is totally unfathomable to the Western mind.
In the early years of “independence”, while Nelson Mandela was President/Prime Minister, there was common sense government between both whites and blacks and the country was moving towards a successful and profitable integrated society. However, after Mandela’s death, the radical components of the ANC, the “Old Warriors” or “Freedom Fighters” took over, and having a huge sense of entitlement, a low level of education (average of a grade 3 level) and resentment no longer held in check, they introduced BBE which destroyed business management from the top down and left corruption to run rampant.
So, yes, they voted as told/forced. The African mindset will die before being “disloyal” – it doesn’t mean that this is what they want.
This is a type of government that simply doesn’t work in Africa. A better system needs to found.
Perhaps a tri-partate governorship within a federalized Republic would work?
This is somewhat how the Western Cape province is run, and it is greatly more successful civilly and economically.
Your description is 100% supportive of the opinion of Albert Schweitzer. He argued against giving Africans political independence for these very reasons. Everything is controlled by the local strong man or chief, he said. There as no hope that a democratic system would work. He was of course dismissed as hopelessly out of touch with the modern world. Schweitzer actually understood that world quite well.
This sort of failure is common throughout Africa and elsewhere where the Europeans exported their political and judicial systems. I have read that the Kenyan justice system, based on English law, is a joke. Same with the English justice system bequeathed to Pakistan. Tribal justice in those countries is far preferable.
Most Europeans think their values are universal. That does not appear to be true.
For example, America is now promoting LGBTQ values all over the world. That is not going to end well.
The biggest problem with energy production in South Africa, where I live half the year, is not fossil or green methodology. It is corruption within the government.
Most of the money coming into the country as investment, promptly leaves via the back door to offshore accounts.
Thus, nothing is done to improve the lives and economy of the people.
California should get to South American status asap to save the rest of the world from this hoax
SA government ministers and their sycophants have stolen the (tax) funding and what was left over, like the transmission infrastructure, is rapidly being dismantled by starving people and sold for scrap (to China I believe)
South Africa’s economy is doing far worse that even that chart indicates. It’s not adjusted for inflation. Since 1980, real GDP is only about 10% higher. In the US it’s roughly double.
Toss some money to the ANC and they will do anything for you. Isn’t that right Vlad?